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Kohei Arihara

Quick Hits: Arihara, Red Sox, Kahnle, Senga

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For Rangers fans curious about Kohei Arihara, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests that Colby Lewis could be a decent comp for the newly-signed right-hander in terms of eating innings and a similar ability to record outs without the help of a big fastball.  The Rangers would certainly be more than pleased if Arihara were to duplicate Lewis’ numbers (4.27 ERA and an average of 166 innings per year) from 2010-16, and GM Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that the team was hopes Arihara can “stabilize the rotation” in terms of covering innings, at the very least.

“Durability is a highlight,” Young said.  “We think there is upside here, in terms of his curiosity and his willingness to learn and improve, but the durability component is a very appealing aspect of this signing….We’re hopeful for 150-plus [innings].”

More from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox were known to be the runners-up in the race to sign Tommy Kahnle, and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham reports that the Sox were open to making the kind of two-year contract that Kahnle received from the Dodgers as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  After ducking under the luxury tax threshold in 2020 and resetting their tax penalty limit, the Red Sox are now “exploring other creative ways to use their payroll flexibility,” Abraham writes, suggesting that the Sox could look to acquire prospects from another team by also agreeing to take a big contract off that team’s books.
  • Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks right-hander Kodai Senga is no closer to making his desired move to Major League Baseball, as per a Kyodo News report.  The Hawks are the only NPB team that has never posted a player to the majors, and according to general manager Sugihiko Mikasa, “I can’t say there is any big change to our policy” coming in the near future.  Senga, who turns 28 in January, has established himself as one of Japan’s top pitchers, with a 2.69 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate, and 10.5 K/9 over 860 1/3 career innings for the Hawks from 2012-20.  Senga can be a full free agent after the 2022 season, and while the Hawks are working out a multi-year contract extension, it doesn’t seem like Senga would accept a deal beyond 2022 given his longstanding interest in North America.

Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara

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TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).

Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.

Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.

Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.

Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.

In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.

Rangers Designate Art Warren For Assignment

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The Texas Rangers announced the signing of Kohei Arihara today, inking the right-hander to a two-year, $6.2MM contract after paying a $1.24MM posting fee to Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. In a corresponding move, the Rangers have designated right-hander Art Warren for assignment, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

Warren, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Mariners just after the 2020 season. He didn’t appear for the Mariners this season after making six scoreless appearances in 2019. Prior to making his Major League debut that season, Warren posted a sterling 1.71 ERA across 29 appearances totaling 31 2/3 innings in Double-A. He recorded 15 saves while finishing 22 games and showing swing-and-miss potential with 11.7 K/9.

While Warren will be 28 years old for the 2021 season, a 95 mph fastball and wipe-out slider provide Warren with enough firepower to make a front office curious. The Ohio native has done enough since being drafted in the 23rd round out of Ashland University to get a look somewhere next season. If he’s not claimed, the Rangers would likely gladly keep him in the organization.

Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara

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The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams.  According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.

San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old.  Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market.  Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.

Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade.  Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August.  Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.

Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18.  He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.

As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing).  Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”

Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists.  The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger’s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020.  In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade.  Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.

According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract.  The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.

Quick Hits: Sugano, Arihara, Padres, Varitek, Pirates

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Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required).  The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency.  As Lin notes, the Padres have worked to establish a scouting pipeline to the Asian leagues, with Pierce Johnson and Kazuhisa Makita representing San Diego’s most prominent NPB signings in recent years.

Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.”  The Padres will be without Mike Clevinger in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, leaving a vacancy in the starting mix.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Jason Varitek officially joined the Red Sox coaching staff earlier this month, working in the new position of game planning coordinator.  This is Varitek’s first assignment as a full-time MLB coach, and the longtime former catcher tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that eventually managing a team is “the ultimate goal” down the road in his post-playing career.  Varitek has worked as a special assistant within the Boston front office since 2012, a post that has allowed him to dabble in several different organizational facets such as scouting, player development, and (most recently) working with Red Sox catchers throughout the 2020 season.  “There are no set parameters” to the game planning coordinator job, Varitek said: “I’ll work with the catchers and pitchers and be a liaison with the analytics people.  Whatever comes my way, I’ll help out.  It ends up being the same thing I have been doing, helping the players grow.”
  • The Pirates are known to be considering all options on the trade front this winter, though The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) doesn’t think Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco will be dealt since the Bucs would likely be selling low on either player.  “It’s more likely than not” that Joe Musgrove will be traded, though Biertempfel also thinks it’s possible Musgrove could be signed to a contract extension, with Pittsburgh either seeing him as a long-term piece or perhaps using the extension as a way of enhancing Musgrove’s trade value.

Tomoyuki Sugano Will Be Posted For MLB Clubs

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NOV. 26: Kohei Arihara has been posted, according to MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). As Morosi notes, the 28-year-old has a 3.65 ERA over 882 career innings.

NOV. 25: Yomiuri will post Sugano, according to Sanspo (via Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter).

NOV. 2: Yomiuri Giants right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano could be posted for Major League teams this winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It’s not yet certain that he’ll be made available, but the Giants are considering the move for one of the more accomplished pitchers in Japan given that he’ll be eligible for unrestricted international free agency next winter. Sherman adds that NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters may post a pair of players themselves: fellow righty Kohei Arihara and outfielder Haruki Nishikawa.

Sugano, who recently turned 31, is the most prominent name of the bunch and the most relevant for MLB fans. He had a tough 2019 season, by his standards (3.89 ERA) but has otherwise posted an ERA of 2.14 or better each season since 2015. Overall, dating back to Opening Day 2015, he’s notched a highly efficient 2.20 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over the course of 1015 1/3 innings out of the rotation. He’s a six-time All-Star in Japan and a two-time winner of NPB’s Sawamura Award — their league’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.

MLB fans may remember Sugano from an impressive showing in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — one that prompted U.S. skipper Jim Leyland to offer high volumes of praise for the righty.

“I can’t tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher,” Leyland said at the time (link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). “I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That’s pretty impressive.” Leyland plainly called Sugano a “big league pitcher” after that game. (Those interested can check out all 81 of Sugano’s pitches from that game in this YouTube clip.)

Team USA’s Andrew McCutchen also acknowledged that Sugano was impressive in that outing, during which he held a deep U.S. roster to one unearned run over six innings with six strikeouts and a walk. Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored.

The Giants have yet to make a formal declaration on Sugano’s status, although that’s not a surprise given that they’re still alive in NPB’s postseason format. Sherman notes that the typical window during which NPB clubs can post a player has been pushed back to Nov. 8-Dec. 12, which will buy the Giants a bit more time in making their ultimate decision. The NPB Climax Series is expected to run through late November.

Turning to the 28-year-old Arihara, he’s a former rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani, so big league scouts have surely gotten ample looks at him over the years. Arihara spent much of the early portion of his career working to ERA marks in the mid-4.00s, but he’s seen improved results since 2019, with a 2.93 mark and a 265-to-68 K/BB ratio in 292 frames.

Hoefer also profiled him late last year, noting that Arihara’s fastball runs up to 95 mph but has a pretty wide variance in terms of its velocity. Hoefer pegged Arihara’s changeup as his lone plus offering but noted that his splitter and slider are potentially average offerings. Arihara won’t turn 29 until next August, so he’s younger not only than Sugano but than just about any MLB free-agent starter of note.

Nishikawa, 29 in April, hit .296/.419/.388 with just five homers, 15 doubles and three triples this year, although he also swiped 37 bags in 42 tries. He’s posted an OBP of .378 or better in each of the past four seasons while striking out in 16.5 percent of his plate appearances against a 14.3 percent walk rate. Nishikawa has three stolen base titles, three Gold Gloves in the outfield and a pair of All-Star nods in NPB. He made it known last offseason that he hoped the Fighters would post him for big league clubs this winter.

For those in need of a refresher or a crash course on the current posting system between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, it’s a fairly straightforward process. Unlike the old blind bidding system, players posted by an NPB or KBO club are free to negotiate with all 30 clubs. So long as they’re over 25 years of age and have six-plus years of MLB service — each of Sugano, Arihara and Nishikawa do — they’re able to sign Major League contracts of any length for any amount.

In addition to the money paid to the player, his new team in MLB must also pay a release fee to the former NPB/KBO club. That fee correlates directly with the size of the contract. MLB clubs pay a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM to the former team. The fee also includes 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter.

The release fee is on top of the actual contract for the player. So, for example, a $50MM contract would cost a team a total of $59.375MM — $50MM to the player and $9.375MM to the former club. Option years and incentives/bonuses are also factored in if they are eventually unlocked (e.g. a $10MM club option tacked on top of the previous theoretical $50MM deal would require the MLB club to pay $1.5MM to the former team once it is picked up — 15 percent of the guarantee beyond $50MM).

Nippon-Ham Fighters To Post Kohei Arihara

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Japan’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters will post right-hander Kohei Arihara this offseason, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets and as Nikkan Sports previously reported.

The 28-year-old Arihara has garnered extensive experience in the NPB, where he has logged a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 836 innings. At his best, Arihara put up a 2.46 ERA and recorded 8.8 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 across 164 1/3 frames in 2019. Will Hoefer of Sports Info Solutions wrote in a scouting report after that season that “Arihara demonstrates strong command of his three best pitches–an above average four seamer, a plus change, and a slider that flashes plus,” and added that he could quickly turn into a mid-rotation starter in the majors.

Of course, before signing Arihara, any MLB team will first have to go through the posting system. Once Arihara is posted, he’ll be free to negotiate with all 30 big league teams. However, a major league club that signs Arihara will have to pay a 20 percent sum of the first $25MM to his NPB team. The MLB club would also have to surrender “17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter,” as MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously explained.

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