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Kodai Senga

The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline

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As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?

Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon’s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.

2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop

While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.

3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.

The Opener: World Series, White Sox, Senga

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR!  Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the postseason continues and the baseball world gears up for the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today across baseball:

1. The World Series Heads To Philadelphia

The World Series is set to return to Philadelphia for the first time since 2009 tonight, with Noah Syndergaard set to take on Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies managed a comeback from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 but were unable to do so for a second time in Game 2. With Philadelphia’s pair of aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, unlikely to return to the mound before Game 5, the Phillies will have to rely on their offense, a well-rested back of the bullpen, and the boost of playing front of their home crowd to overcome the Astros, who won 19 more regular season games in 2022 than Philadelphia.

2. The White Sox Are The Final Team With A Managerial Vacancy

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Royals have hired Matt Quatraro as manager, their AL Central rival on the south side of Chicago is the final team searching for a manager this season, assuming Astros manager Dusty Baker is indeed asked to return for the 2023 season. Chicago’s search for a skipper who can help the team move past Tony La Russa’s tumultuous second run as the team’s manager has lacked the clarity other managerial searches this offseason have possessed. With one of the few known interviewees in Astros bench coach Joe Espada reportedly out of the running, the only candidates known to have received interviews to this point are Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, who also interviewed for vacancies in Kansas City and Miami, and former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. White Sox GM Rick Hahn noted earlier this month that interim manager Miguel Cairo would be interviewed for the position during his end of season press conference.

3. Kodai Senga Eyes Free Agency

NPB star Kodai Senga has been expected to test international free agency this offseason for months now, and according to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times, the right-hander has officially filed the necessary paperwork with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to do so. Senga, who will pitch next season at age 30, figures to be one of the more intriguing options in the starting pitching market this offseason. With a phenomenal 1.94 ERA in 2022 and a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball and a splitter FanGraphs sees having “bat-missing action”, Senga figures to be given ample opportunity to establish himself in the big leagues as a quality starter, and at a much cheaper cost than the top flight free agent starters such as Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That cheaper cost is due to the heightened risk in his profile, however; overseas players are rarely guaranteed to see their talents carry over at the same level in the big leagues, and FanGraphs notes that it’s possible Senga may need to pitch in high-leverage relief in the majors due to the relative weakness of his cutter and slider. Still, Senga figures to generate a great deal of interest among pitching-needy teams this offseason, and his free agency should be closely monitored.

Kodai Senga To Trigger Opt-Out And Become Free Agent

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Right-hander Kodai Senga is planning to trigger the opt-out in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and become a free agent, according to a report from Sankei Sports (Japanese language link). Senga and the club agreed to a five-year extension back in December, though that contract contained an opt-out clause after the first season. Senga will be a free agent and won’t be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system. It was reported in August that Senga planned to pursue MLB opportunities this winter and it now seems he will follow through on those plans.

Senga has been with the Hawks for his entire career thus far, making his first appearance back in 2012. It has been reported for many years that he has desired to make the leap across the Pacific to join MLB, though the Hawks are known for never posting their players. Instead, Senga has had to wait until he accrued nine years of NPB service time, at which point players are allowed to become free agents. While he was one year away from the open market, he agreed to the aforementioned extension, but only with the opt-out provision in place. He earned $5.3MM in 2022 and now has a chance to substantially add to that.

Senga, who will turn 30 in January, already has a track record as one of the best pitchers in Japan in recent years. Over his 11 seasons, he’s thrown 1,089 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 1,252 strikeouts and 414 walks. In 2022, he threw 144 innings with a 1.94 ERA, striking out 156 batters against 49 walks.

A year ago, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has “exploding” fastball movement as part of a four-pitch mix. The report doesn’t think much of the cutter or slider, with Senga’s splitter being highlighted as his best secondary pitch. Longenhagen notes that Senga has shown the ability to maintain his velocity as a starter and will likely get chances to try that in the majors, though he could also thrive as a two-pitch reliever as a fallback option.

Senga figures to be a popular target for MLB teams and not just for his talents. Players coming from overseas generally have their markets tempered slightly by the fact that they are not proven at the major league level. This year’s crop of free agents will include some elite arms like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, with all of them sure to secure massive paydays. For teams unwilling to shop at the very top of the market, Senga will figure to be an attractive option.

Also, since the Hawks refused to post Senga and held onto him until their club control was completely exhausted, there will be no posting fee to consider. Under the posting system, the signing team has to pay the Japanese club a fee, the value of which is dependent on the size of the contract: 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. However, that won’t be an issue at all in the case of Senga, meaning any MLB team that signs him will only have to pay the strict value of the agreed-upon contract.

NPB Pitcher Kodai Senga Expected To Explore MLB Opportunities This Offseason

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Kodai Senga has been one of the better pitchers in Japan over the past decade, and the right-hander could make for an intriguing entrant onto next offseason’s MLB free agent market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last night (Twitter link) that Senga is likely to consider contract offers from major league teams over the winter. That’s not especially surprising, as he’s reportedly sought to make the jump to MLB in the past but been denied that opportunity by his NPB team, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga is a career-long member of the Hawks, with whom he has spent parts of 11 seasons. He’s tallied a bit more than 1000 innings at Japan’s highest level, pitching to a 2.62 ERA with a very strong 28.3% strikeout rate. The right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons, including a sterling 2.05 mark across 105 1/3 innings this year. Senga has fanned 28.1% of opponents in 2022 against a fine 8.1% walk rate. Among qualified NPB hurlers, he ranks third in ERA.

Last offseason, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has a quality four-pitch mix headlined by his fastball and split. Longehagen indicated neither of his breaking pitches (cutter or slider) were likely to be impactful offerings, but he suggested his two top pitches combined with solid control could give him a chance to start in the majors. At the time, Longenhagen placed Senga as his #4 international prospect who might be available in 2023 and beyond (and the #3 player in Japan, behind righties Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki).

Unlike Yamamoto and Sasaki, both of whom are in their early 20’s, Senga turns 30 years old in January. The 6’0″ hurler won’t be subject to the MLB – NPB posting system by virtue of his exceeding nine years of NPB service time. That allows him to explore international free agency without requiring any form of compensation on the part of major league teams to his NPB employer.

Senga has a fair bit of financial security to fall back upon. He signed a five-year contract with the Hawks last winter that reportedly guaranteed him a $5.3MM salary this season. That pact afforded Senga an opt-out opportunity after 2022 to allow him to explore MLB free agency, but it also means he can stay in a familiar setting on a multi-year deal if he doesn’t believe there’ll be MLB offers to his liking.

Kodai Senga Has 2023 Opt-Out In New SoftBank Hawks Contract

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Right-hander Kodai Senga signed a new five-year contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, according to The Kyodo News and other outlets.  Full salary details aren’t known, though Senga will receive $5.3MM in 2022.

Most pertinently for North American fans, the contract also contains an opt-out clause following the 2022 NPB season that would allow Senga to leave the Hawks for a potential deal with a Major League team.  The opt-out clause is contingent on Senga banking enough service time in 2022 to officially qualify as a full free agent outside of the NPB/MLB posting system, which probably shouldn’t be considered a lock given that Senga missed quite a bit of the 2021 season recovering from an ankle injury.

However, Senga’s strong finish to the year should help answer any doubts about his health.  The righty posted a 2.66 ERA over 84 2/3 innings for the Hawks, along with a 26.47% strikeout rate and 7.94% walk rate.  If that wasn’t enough, Senga also helped Japan’s Olympic baseball team capture the gold medal at this past summer’s Tokyo Games.

Senga has made no secret of his desire to eventually test himself in MLB, and as he told reporters, “my thinking on that has not wavered” even after signing this multi-year pact with the Fukuoka team.  “As a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher….(Next year) I want to blow past all the numbers I’ve managed up to this point,” Senga said.

His biggest obstacle to a jump to North America has been, simply, the Hawks’ refusal to let him test the market.  The Hawks have a team policy against posting any of their players to North American teams, and thus Senga has had to wait to become eligible.  While it seems quite likely that he will indeed become a free agent next winter, the five-year contract does allow Senga some flexibility, as a number of factors could end up changing his mind.  Injuries or a dip in form might convince him to stay with Fukuoka — or, in terms of bigger-picture issues, the state of the pandemic or what the next MLB collective bargaining agreement may look like will certainly play into Senga’s eventual decision.

Senga has been one of Japan’s better pitchers for the better part of a decade, first working as a star reliever out of the Hawks’ bullpen and then becoming a regular starter in 2016.  Senga has a 2.69 ERA and 28.33% strikeout rate over 945 career NPB innings, making three All-Star teams and twice leading the Pacific League in strikeouts.  If he stays healthy and keeps pitching this well in 2022, Senga (who turns 30 in January 2023) should have no trouble attracting a noteworthy multi-year contract from Major League teams next offseason.

Quick Hits: Arihara, Red Sox, Kahnle, Senga

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For Rangers fans curious about Kohei Arihara, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests that Colby Lewis could be a decent comp for the newly-signed right-hander in terms of eating innings and a similar ability to record outs without the help of a big fastball.  The Rangers would certainly be more than pleased if Arihara were to duplicate Lewis’ numbers (4.27 ERA and an average of 166 innings per year) from 2010-16, and GM Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that the team was hopes Arihara can “stabilize the rotation” in terms of covering innings, at the very least.

“Durability is a highlight,” Young said.  “We think there is upside here, in terms of his curiosity and his willingness to learn and improve, but the durability component is a very appealing aspect of this signing….We’re hopeful for 150-plus [innings].”

More from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox were known to be the runners-up in the race to sign Tommy Kahnle, and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham reports that the Sox were open to making the kind of two-year contract that Kahnle received from the Dodgers as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  After ducking under the luxury tax threshold in 2020 and resetting their tax penalty limit, the Red Sox are now “exploring other creative ways to use their payroll flexibility,” Abraham writes, suggesting that the Sox could look to acquire prospects from another team by also agreeing to take a big contract off that team’s books.
  • Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks right-hander Kodai Senga is no closer to making his desired move to Major League Baseball, as per a Kyodo News report.  The Hawks are the only NPB team that has never posted a player to the majors, and according to general manager Sugihiko Mikasa, “I can’t say there is any big change to our policy” coming in the near future.  Senga, who turns 28 in January, has established himself as one of Japan’s top pitchers, with a 2.69 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate, and 10.5 K/9 over 860 1/3 career innings for the Hawks from 2012-20.  Senga can be a full free agent after the 2022 season, and while the Hawks are working out a multi-year contract extension, it doesn’t seem like Senga would accept a deal beyond 2022 given his longstanding interest in North America.

International Notes: Choi, Senga, Yang

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Happy New Year to all of our readers here at MLBTR! As MLB teams begin to gear up for what should be the most active January in hot stove history, here are a few notes on the international market…

  • First baseman Ji-Man Choi’s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.
  • Right-hander Kodai Senga of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Nippon Professional Baseball is eyeing a jump to the Major Leagues down the line, per a report from the Japan Times (link in English). Senga, 25 next month, is currently negotiating a new contract with the Hawks, according to the report, so it doesn’t seem as though the move would happen until next offseason at the earliest. Next year will be Senga’s sixth full season in NPB, meaning he’ll have the pro experience and be old enough to be exempt from the international bonus pool system. However, he’d still be subject to the newly augmented posting system agreed to by MLB, NPB and the MLBPA. At present, Senga owns a career 2.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 418 innings. The righty moved from the bullpen to the rotation in 2016 and owns a 2.63 ERA in 47 starts over the past two seasons.
  • Left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang has re-signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, Yoo writes in a second report. Set to turn 30 in March, Yang is fresh off an MVP season with the Tigers, having thrown 193 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in the hitter-friendly KBO. The southpaw has garnered interest from MLB teams in the past, though his KBO club did not accept the winning bid when he was initially posted for Major League teams back in the 2014-15 offseason. Yang, who has been pitching professionally since he was 19, now has enough experience to qualify as a true free agent without any restrictions but will nonetheless return to the KBO for a 12th pro season. His deal with the Tigers is worth $2.14MM, per Yoo, giving him the second-highest annual salary of any player in the KBO (behind former Mariners first baseman Dae-ho Lee).

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