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Kirby Yates

AL West Notes: Verlander, Yates, Pillar

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After being charged with six runs over 4 2/3 innings in yesterday’s start against the Angels, Justin Verlander now has an ugly 8.89 ERA in six starts and 27 1/3 frames since his return from the injured list.  The veteran missed close to two and a half months due to an unspecified neck issue, but Verlander told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) yesterday that “I did have doctors say it’d probably take a little longer” to fully recover.  “I think I came back from the neck injury a little fast.  Obviously, I know the schedule, I know the calendar.  I want to be an asset for this team.  And to do that, I needed to be able to pitch and find out where I’m at.  Obviously, the results have not been good.  But there’s nothing you can do besides trying to pitch.”

Verlander described the process of trying to get fully right in the aftermath of this injury as the most difficult of his career, “because sometimes it’s just one thing that makes it click.”  With just one regular-season start left before the playoffs, Verlander acknowledged that he might not be part of the Astros’ postseason rotation.  While “it’s not my decision” to make, Verlander noted that “I was away for two months and all these guys were pitching fantastic.  Seen a bunch of guys really come into their own.”

More from around the AL West…

  • Kirby Yates will be 38 on Opening Day 2025, and the veteran reliever told Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News that “I’ve got two more years that I could probably pitch at an effective level.”  Whether or not this translates to a two-year deal remains to be seen this winter, but Yates has certainly helped his case with a very impressive season as the Rangers’ closer.  A return to Texas would be welcomed, as Yates said “I hope those talks happen.  I’ve enjoyed it here, I think it’s a great fit, my family’s liked it here, it’s an easy transition for me.  If it works out, it works out.  If it doesn’t, I’ll always be thankful for the Rangers organization, Rangers fans and everybody that’s treated me the way they have.”  Staying with Texas would check off a couple of important boxes on Yates’ offseason wish list, as he noted that he’d ideally like to pitch near his home and family in Arizona, as well as relatively close to his extended family in his native Hawaii.  Yates has an 1.23 ERA and 31 saves over 58 2/3 innings for the Rangers this season, more than delivering on the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed last offseason.
  • The Angels activated Kevin Pillar from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and optioned infielder Charles Leblanc to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Pillar had been out of action since September 6 due to a left thumb sprain, and will now return for what will probably be the final games of his 12-year Major League career.  Pillar marked his activation with his eighth homer of the season in Friday’s 9-7 loss to the Astros, and the veteran is hitting .242/.300/.402 over 291 combined PA with the White Sox and Angels.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Sign Kirby Yates

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The Rangers announced the signing of right-hander Kirby Yates to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $4.5MM guarantee for the Beverly Hills Sports Council client.

Yates, 37 in March, had something of a bounceback year in 2023, at least from a health perspective. Over the 2020-2022 seasons, he only tossed 11 1/3 total innings due to elbow injuries, requiring Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He then signed a two-year deal with Atlanta, with that club knowing he wouldn’t be a big factor in 2022.

He was healthy enough to make 61 appearances in 2023 with a 3.28 earned run average, though the underlying metrics were less encouraging. His 31.5% strikeout rate was still very strong but he also walked 14.6% of batters faced. A low batting average on balls in play of .211 and a high strand rate of 85.4% helped to keep runs off the board, which is why his 4.63 FIP and 3.90 SIERA were a bit less bullish on his performance. Atlanta let him go by choosing a $1.25MM buyout rather than a $5.75MM salary on a club option for 2024.

But prior to his lengthy injury woes, Yates was one of the best pitchers in the league for a time. In 2018, he posted an ERA of 2.14 with the Padres, pairing a 36% strikeout rate with a 6.8% walk rate. He was even better in 2019, getting his ERA down to 1.19 as he struck out 41.6% of batters and walked just 5.3%, racking up 41 saves in that season.

Yates obviously wasn’t back to that level in 2023 and it’s probably not fair to expect he ever will be, given his age. But he was still getting plenty of strikeouts in 2023 and his 93.6mph fastball velocity was essentially all the way back to his pre-injury form, as he was at 93.9mph in 2018 and 93.5mph in 2019. Perhaps now that he is further removed from his surgery, his control will improve. It’s perhaps notable that he had an 18.5% walk rate through June 7 but a 12.3% rate from that point on, showing at least some signs of improvement.

Despite winning the World Series in 2023, the bullpen was an obvious weak spot for the Rangers. Collectively, their relievers had an ERA of 4.77 on the year, which placed them 24th in the league. Midseason pickups Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton reached free agency after the playoffs, along with one-year signee Will Smith. If Yates is in decent form next year, he can help them make up for those losses.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Rangers were signing Yates to a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $4.5MM guarantee.

Braves Exercise Club Option On Charlie Morton, Decline Options On Kirby Yates, Collin McHugh

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The Braves are bringing back veteran right-hander Charlie Morton for another season in 2024, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, as the club will exercise their $20MM team option on his services. Meanwhile, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relays that the club is expected to decline their club option on veteran reliever Kirby Yates, opting to pay him a $1.25MM buyout rather than a $5.75MM salary for 2024. Atlanta also announced they’ve bought out right-hander Collin McHugh for $1MM instead of a $6MM option.

Charlie Morton | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Morton at one point publicly indicated uncertainty as to whether he’d pitched beyond his mid-30s, but he’s remained a high-quality starter who’ll now return to Atlanta for a fourth year in what will be his age-40 campaign. The veteran righty started 30 games with the Braves this past season, pitching to a 3.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate, 11.6% walk rate and 43.3% ground-ball rate over the life of 163 1/3 innings. That walk rate was abnormally high for Morton, who’d issued a free pass to just 8% of his opponents in the past six seasons combined, but his fastball velocity held strong at 95 mph.

While Morton isn’t necessarily the top-tier starter he was during his first season in Atlanta, he remains a quality mid-rotation arm. Given the strength of Atlanta’s pitching, he needn’t be any more than that, either. Lefty Max Fried and young righty Spencer Strider rank among the National League’s best starters, and Morton gives manager Brian Snitker and the organization a playoff-tested veteran to slot into the rotation behind that excellent pairing.

Righty Bryce Elder’s breakout 2023 campaign likely secured him a 2024 rotation spot as well, and the Braves currently have righties AJ Smith-Shawver, Michael Soroka, Ian Anderson (returning from Tommy John surgery) and lefties Dylan Dodd, Jared Shuster and Kolby Allard as depth options beyond that group. Kyle Wright will miss the 2024 season after undergoing October shoulder surgery, making Morton’s return and the steadiness that he brings to the table all the more pivotal.

The $20MM price point at which Morton returns has become the going rate for mid-rotation help — particularly given the short term of the deal. Fellow righties like Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) secured $17-18MM annual salaries on longer-term deals elsewhere in the league with the general expectation of functioning as third/fourth starters. With that salary now locked in, Atlanta’s payroll pushes north of $202MM, per Roster Resource — though trades, potential non-tenders and future free agent dealings will surely alter that number in the weeks and months to come.

As for Yates, he’ll head back to the open market after spending the past two seasons in Atlanta. The Braves inked him to a two-year, $8.25MM contract in the 2021-22 offseason, knowing he’d miss the majority of the ’22 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The former All-Star closer and 2019 NL saves leader (41) was one of the game’s best relievers during a brief two-year peak, but he pitched just seven innings in 2022 and battled considerable command issues this past season.

While Yates’ 3.28 ERA during his second Braves campaign was plenty solid, he also walked 14.6% of his opponents. At his best, Yates anchored the Padres’ bullpen with a 1.67 ERA, 38.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate, but that form wasn’t on display in Atlanta this year. The Braves were discouraged enough — and possess enough pitching depth — to turn down a net $4.5MM call on Yates, who’ll now head back to the open market in search for a new opportunity in advance of his age-37 season.

McHugh also spent two years as a Brave after signing as a free agent. He had a strong first season but struggled to a 4.30 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate in 2023. His season ended in early September when he landed on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing shoulder.

Meanwhile, Atlanta will rely on a relief corps headlined by Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and recent re-signees Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM). Both trade acquisitions were set to be free agents before putting pen to paper on new contracts within the past five weeks.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL East

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:

Atlanta Braves

The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.

Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.

d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.

A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.

McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.

It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.

The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.

Miami Marlins

Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.

Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.

New York Mets

Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.

Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.

Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.

Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.

Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Braves Place Kirby Yates On Injured List

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The Braves announced that reliever Kirby Yates has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 13, due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. Righty William Woods was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take his spot in the bullpen. Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that Yates experienced some discomfort while throwing this afternoon.

An elbow inflammation diagnosis for Yates is a bit alarming, as it comes on the heels of a lengthy rehab from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander missed most of the abbreviated 2020 campaign battling elbow issues, and his efforts to avoid going under the knife proved unsuccessful. He required Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and spent a season and a half on the injured list before being reinstated in mid-August.

Despite the lengthy rehab process, the Braves rolled the dice on a two-year guarantee for Yates last offseason. He’s making just $1MM this year and will earn $6MM next season before the club has to decide on a 2024 team option valued at $5.25MM. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff were clearly hoping Yates would recapture something resembling his 2019 form. During his last full healthy season, the Hawaii native was arguably the best reliever in the game. He saved an MLB-leading 41 games, posted a 1.19 ERA and struck out 41.6% of opponents over 60 2/3 innings with the Padres that season.

While there’s still time for Yates to turn things around, he’s shown signs of rust through his first month in Atlanta. The 35-year-old has logged seven innings over nine outings, allowing four runs on a pair of homers with five walks and six strikeouts. Yates’ 93.4 MPH average fastball velocity is right in line with his pre-surgery work, but the pitch has been hit hard so far this season. On the plus side, his trademark split has again been an excellent offering.

The Braves haven’t provided any kind of timetable for Yates’ expected return. There are a bit less than three weeks remaining in the regular season. A minimal stint would give Yates an opportunity to make it back for an outing or two before the playoffs, but any absence stretching notably beyond 15 days would take him into the postseason. Paired with his early struggles, Yates’ elbow discomfort could make it difficult for the team to carry him on a playoff roster. That’s particularly true in light of the team’s overall strength at the back end. The Braves have the majors’ fifth-lowest bullpen ERA (3.17) and second-best strikeout rate (27.4%).

Braves Select Top Prospect Vaughn Grissom, Activate Kirby Yates

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom from Double-A Mississippi and activated right-hander Kirby Yates from the 60-day injured list.

To open space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta activated first baseman Mike Ford from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment and also transferred outfielder Adam Duvall from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Atlanta also announced that infielder Orlando Arcia is headed to the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain and that righty Huascar Ynoa has been optioned to Triple-A. That frees up a pair of spots on the 26-man roster for Grissom and Yates.

Still just 21 years old, Grissom was an 11th-round pick in 2019 who has skyrocketed through the minors, culminating in a .363/.408/.516 slash through his first 98 plate appearances in Double-A. That’s his only experience above A-ball, though this year’s .312/.404/.487 output in 344 plate appearances at High-A bear mention as well. It’s the second time this season that the Braves have aggressively promoted a top prospect directly from the Double-A ranks, and it’s easy to imagine that the major success of Michael Harris II may have emboldened the front office to go back to the well a second time.

Despite that humble draft status, Grissom has ascended to the No. 77 spot on Baseball America’s latest top-100 prospect ranking and No. 98 over at MLB.com. He’s cracked 14 home run, 20 doubles and two triples across those two minor league levels this season, all while going 27-for-32 in stolen base attempts. Grissom doesn’t walk much (8.1% on the season but just four walks in 98 Double-A plate appearances), but he’s also fanned in only 12.2% of his plate appearances this season.

Grissom has been primarily a shortstop this season and throughout his minor league career, but the Braves have given him seven starts at second base and six at third base so far in the minors this year.  Scouting reports at BA. MLB.com and FanGraphs question his ability to remain at shortstop in the long run, but his bat is thought to be solid enough to profile at second, third or even in the outfield (though he’s played infield exclusively to this point in his pro career). In the short term, with Arcia headed to the IL and Ozzie Albies still mending a broken foot, it seems likely that Grissom will be ticketed for work at second base.

Starting Grissom’s service clock now sets him up for  a potential trip to free agency in the 2028-29 offseason, although plenty can change that trajectory along the way. Albies and third baseman Austin Riley are signed long-term in the infield, and it’s not yet known whether the Braves will be able to retain free-agent-to-be Dansby Swanson beyond the current season. Even if Swanson were to depart, Grissom wouldn’t be a lock to step right into the fray. He’s largely untested above Class-A, and while Harris’ success story is encouraging, it’s more common for players — even top prospects — to struggle following such aggressive promotions. Regardless, he’ll earn some big league service time this season, and his placement on the 40-man roster a year sooner than was required will accelerate his minor league option schedule.

Turning to the veteran Yates, he’ll add yet another high-profile, potentially dominant arm to an Atlanta bullpen that is hardly short on such commodities. The 35-year-old inked a two-year, $8.25MM deal this winter — a backloaded contract that pays him just $1MM in 2022 due to the fact that Yates has been shelved for the entire season to this point while rehabbing from last year’s Tommy John surgery. When healthy most recently, in 2018-19, he was an All-Star closer with the Padres, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 53 saves, a huge 38.7% strikeout rate and a tiny 6.1% walk rate.

It remains to be seen whether Yates can recapture that form, but his work on a minor league rehab assignment thus far certainly creates some optimism. Across three Braves affiliates, Yates logged a combined 8 1/3 innings of one-run ball with just four hits allowed and a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’ll join Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Collin McHugh near the back of an outstanding bullpen.

As for the 30-year-old Ford, he’s gone hitless in eight big league plate appearances with the Braves this season and logged a combined .150/.320/.175 batting line in 50 plate appearances between Atlanta, Seattle and San Francisco. The former Yankees minor leaguer was never considered among the top prospects in the New York organization but does carry a .258/.355/.481 batting line and 61 homers through 1294 career plate appearances in Triple-A. With trades of players who’ve been on Major League rosters this season now prohibited after the Aug. 2 deadline, Ford will be placed on waivers within the next week and be made available to all 29 other clubs.

Braves Targeting Mid-Late August Return For Ozzie Albies

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The Braves have been without Ozzie Albies for a month, as the star second baseman fractured his left foot on June 13. Atlanta immediately placed him on the 60-day injured list, and he underwent surgery a few days later. The club maintained they expected him to play again this season, but they didn’t provide an estimated return date beyond ruling him out for two-plus months.

It seems Atlanta’s hopeful Albies can return around when he’s first eligible. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos tells Jeff Schultz of the Athletic the club is “probably looking at mid- to late-August or worst case the beginning of September” for Albies’ return. The two-time All-Star has progressed to 75% weight bearing on the foot, according to the Atlanta president.

Second base has been a major problem for the Braves since Albies went down. Atlanta has gotten a meager .232/.287/.303 showing in 108 plate appearances at the position over the past month. The bulk of that time has gone to utilityman Orlando Arcia, with Phil Gosselin (who has since been designated for assignment) also chipping in. Arcia’s and Gosselin’s struggles reached the point the Braves swung a deal for Robinson Canó and added the veteran to the major league roster on Monday.

Adding Canó shouldn’t prevent Anthopoulos from seeking further upgrades at the position. The veteran had been hitting well in Triple-A but struggled enough with both the Mets and Padres in the big leagues he was released from both clubs. Atlanta’s acquisition cost for Canó was marginal — they sent cash considerations to San Diego in return — and the Braves figure to be willing to move on quickly if he struggles again. However, the possibility of welcoming Albies back four-to-six weeks from now could diminish the urgency to add infield talent closer to the deadline.

That’s particularly true given how thin this summer’s infield trade market appears to be. Of MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates, only three (Brandon Drury, Whit Merrifield and Donovan Solano) are capable of playing second base. Players like César Hernández and Tony Kemp would be available stopgap options but didn’t make MLBTR’s list amidst arguably career-worst years.

Asked generally about the possibility of upgrading before the deadline, Anthopoulos suggested the club had yet to narrow down specific target areas. He expressed confidence in the club’s overall depth and told Schultz they’re prepared to cast a wider net than last season, when the front office responded to Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending injury by striking two weeks early to acquire Joc Pederson from the Cubs. “It’s very different than last year. We’ve had injuries this year, but we have a lot of depth,” Anthopoulos told Schultz. “I would say right now it’s critical to watch the team and obviously our health. It might be one of those things where we don’t have a true glaring area, but we definitely have areas where we can improve. Because once the deadline (passes), we can’t add. But we’re not there yet. We haven’t made any decisions.”

The Braves are also expecting a return from reliever Kirby Yates a few weeks down the line. The 2019 All-Star has barely pitched over the past two and a half seasons. He missed most of the shortened 2020 campaign battling elbow issues, then underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 that wiped out all of last year. The right-hander signed a two-year deal over the winter with an eye on a midseason comeback, and a return to the big leagues is getting closer into view.

Yates is set to begin a rehab assignment at the club’s Florida complex on Saturday, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Pitchers are typically allowed up to 30 days on rehab stints, but that window can be (and often is) extended for players working back from TJS. Anthopoulos told Schultz that Yates’ progress over the next couple weeks could factor into whether they feel a need to add another right-hander to the bullpen via trade. During his last healthy season, Yates tossed 60 2/3 innings of 1.19 ERA ball for the 2019 Padres, leading the majors with 41 saves.

Braves Sign Tyler Thornburg, Place Kirby Yates On 60-Day IL

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The Braves have announced that they’ve signed Tyler Thornburg to a non-guaranteed, one-year deal worth $900K. To open up a spot on the 40-man roster, they placed Kirby Yates on the 60-day IL.

Thornburg’s career has been a rollercoaster to this point, with the highs of excellent performance constantly giving way to lows brought about by injuries. In 2013, he threw 66 2/3 innings for the Brewers, logging a 2.03 ERA. However, elbow issues limited him to around 30 frames in each of the next two campaigns. 2016, he got back on track, logging 67 innings with a 2.15 ERA, excellent 34.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

It was after that tremendous campaign that the Brewers sent Thornburg to the Red Sox for Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington. Unfortunately, Thornburg required surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome, missing the entirety of the 2017 season. When he came back, he was much less effective, throwing 42 2/3 innings over 2018 and 2019 for the Red Sox, putting up an ERA of 6.54, strikeout rate of 22.3% and walk rate of 10.4%. In 2020, he logged seven innings for the Reds before hitting the IL, eventually undergoing Tommy John Surgery in September.

Now that about 18 months has passed since that surgery, Thornburg is presumably healthy again and ready for another kick at the can. For the Braves, this is a low-risk flier on a player who could be a bargain if he can stay healthy and resume his previous form. His $900K salary is just barely above the league minimum, which is $700K in the new CBA. Also, since the deal isn’t guaranteed, the club could even avoid that modest sum if Thornburg’s injury past catches up with him in spring.

As for Yates, the IL placement is merely a formality. The club signed him in November to a two-year deal, knowing that he would miss the first half of 2022.

For the defending World Series champion Braves, their bullpen took a hit at the end of the season, as Richard Rodriguez, Josh Tomlin, Jesse Chavez and Chris Martin hit free agency, with Chavez and Martin both signing with the Cubs in recent days. They’ve seemingly tried to compensate for those losses by taking fliers on talented hurlers who are relatively affordable because of their injury histories, such as Yates, Thornburg and Collin McHugh, whom they signed yesterday.

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