Kevin Maitan

Quick Hits: Kingery, Phillies, Chen, Tigers, Maitan

By Mark Polishuk | March 25, 2018 at 11:59pm CDT

It was on this day in 2013 that the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse to a three-year, $33MM contract, ending Lohse’s extended stay in the free agent market. The 2012-13 offseason was the first to feature the qualifying offer in its original form, and the draft pick compensation (a first-round pick, or the highest available pick for a team with one of the top ten draft spots) attached to Lohse’s services seemed to chill the market for the veteran right-hander. Lohse became the first of several notable players whose free agency was impacted by the QO in the coming years, and even in its adjusted form under the new collective bargaining agreement, the qualifying certainly still acted as a seeming deterrent for several free agents this offseason. The Brewers, it should be noted, ended up getting a pretty solid return on their investment, as Lohse posted a 3.45 ERA and 3.28 K/BB rate over 397 innings in 2013-14 before declining in the final year of the contract.

Some items from around baseball…

Talks about Scott Kingery’s precedent-setting extension with the Phillies came together within the last few days, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes (subscription required). The team had been planning to keep Kingery at Triple-A long enough (April 13) to limit his service time and thus gain and extra year of control over his services. At a guaranteed price of $24MM over six years, the Phillies see the contract “as a no-risk transaction,” as it isn’t too heavy a sum to eat if Kingery doesn’t live up to expectations as a big leaguer, though the organization is very high on the prospect as an important building block.
Of course, the Kingery deal was bound to generate some controversy given that he could be leaving a lot of future money on the table should he play well. Speaking to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), one rival agent described the contract’s three club options as “offensive,” given that the Phillies could control Kingery’s first three free agent years at a total price of $42MM, which surely won’t match the rate of market inflation by 2024-26. Rosenthal’s notes piece is well worth a full read, as he catches up on some of the bigger stories of the past six weeks that he missed while recovering from back surgery. (On behalf of all of us at MLBTR, it’s great to see Ken recovered and ready to go for the start of the season!)
Wei-Yin Chen faced live hitters in a 16-pitch batting practice session today, and the Marlins southpaw told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro) that it “felt like the old days,” prior to the elbow problems that have plagued him over the last two seasons. Chen has been gradually moving through the recovery process, with today’s session being his first test against actual batters. Without any injury setbacks, Chen could begin a proper ramp-up to the season and potentially return to Miami’s rotation by May, at the earliest.
The Tigers aren’t planning to make a trade to account for Mike Fiers’ potential DL stint, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets. The team already has Daniel Norris as an in-house replacement, plus Fiers isn’t expected to miss much time recovering from the back problems that have hampered him all spring.
Kevin Maitan’s prospect stock was already dimming after a difficult first full pro season, and the former Braves prospect has continued to draw mixed reviews from scouts in his first Spring Training with the Angels, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Though Maitan is still just 18 years old, scouts already believe his body type won’t allow him to remain at shortstop, and he may also be too big even to handle third base. This puts more pressure on Maitan to hit if he isn’t going to play at a premium defensive position, and evaluators also have some questions about Maitan’s swing. pessimistic

Angels Agree To Terms With Kevin Maitan, Livan Soto

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2017 at 9:13pm CDT

9:07pm: The Halos have also landed another former Braves shortstop, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Youngster Livan Soto is also heading to the Los Angeles organization after striking a $850K deal. That’s nearly as much as his original $1MM bonus.

Soto isn’t even halfway into his his 18th year, so he’s particularly youthful. He struggled to a .225/.332/.254 slash in 208 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League, but did draw 27 walks against 26 plate appearances. Despite the tepid output, BA’s J.J. Cooper wrote recently (subscription link) that scouts were generally pleased with what he has shown initially.

12:00pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports that Maitan will receive a $2.2MM signing bonus (Twitter link). That’s more than the Halos have in available 2017-18 international funds, so it indeed seems that they’ll be paying Maitan with their 2018-19 bonus pool.

11:45am: The Angels have agreed to a deal with infield prospect Kevin Maitan, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The former Braves prospect was declared a free agent by commissioner Rob Manfred following his office’s investigations into Atlanta’s circumvention of rules on the international free agent market and in the domestic amateur draft.

The addition of Maitan will be a jolt to an Angels farm system that has long rated as one of the game’s worst but has steadily improved in recent seasons. The 17-year-old Maitan didn’t perform well in his first professional season, hitting just .241/.290/.340 in 176 plate appearances between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League.

The switch-hitting Maitan was still considered by some to be one of the game’s top overall prospects and should slot in at or near the top of his new organization’s prospect rankings. It would be misleading, though, to suggest that Maitan’s struggles didn’t hamper his value to some extent; Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, for instance, tweets that he’s spoken to several scouts who wouldn’t rank Maitan among the game’s 100 best prospects at this juncture.

The Angels picked up $1.21MM of international spending money in a recent trade with the Braves in which they agreed to take on the entirety of Jim Johnson’s remaining salary from Atlanta. That gave the Halos a total of $1.315MM with which to work on the international front. GM Billy Eppler said at the time that that money was earmarked for Shohei Ohtani, but it’s critical to note that for the former Braves prospects deemed to be free agents, teams are allowed to dip into next year’s bonus pool as well.

In other words, the Halos could very well have committed a significant portion of their 2018-19 international pool to Maitan while still reserving the $1.315MM sum (and any other funds they can acquire) for their pursuit of Ohtani.

Process For Signing Prospects Stripped From Braves

By Jeff Todd | November 22, 2017 at 8:34am CDT

Yesterday brought final word on the long-awaited penalties for the Braves’ amateur signing infractions. Among other things, the Atlanta organization has been stripped of a dozen prospects who were brought in through improper means.

Many of those players were part of a highly-regarded crop of international talent, so they will be of keen interest to other teams. That’s particularly true now that they have had their first taste of the minors, increasing the information available to make an evaluation. MLB will also stage a showcase at the end of the month for these young players.

New information, of course, isn’t always a good thing. Kevin Maitan, the top name on the list of newly-minted free agents, certainly did not boost his stock with a .220/.273/.323 showing in the Appalachian League. Those with Baseball America subscriptions will certainly want to read an updated scouting report on Maitan from J.J. Cooper, who also provides a look at the best of the other prospects who have now been set free.

So, what’s the process for signing these players? We learned some elements of the process yesterday, and MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo provides a more complete look at the ad hoc rules that will apply here. Here’s a breakdown:

The players — who get to keep their original bonuses but cannot be represented by the agents that negotiated their original contracts — will be subject to international signing pool restrictions but are otherwise free to sign with any organization.
MLB teams will be allowed a fresh $200K of bonus pool space to work with to sign any of these prospects. They may elect to draw from either their current signing period pool allocation or that of the 2018-19 period (but not both).
All MLB teams but the Braves can sign the prospects between December 5th of this year and January 15th of the next. Any players that do not sign within that period will no longer be eligible to receive a signing bonus. The Braves are eligible to pursue any still-unsigned prospects (without a bonus offer) beginning on May 1, 2018.

MLB Strips Braves Of 12 Prospects, Applies Future Amateur Restrictions

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2017 at 2:54pm CDT

The Braves are slated to lose their rights to a dozen young prospects as punishment for international signing violations. Additionally, the Atlanta organization will face limitations on their amateur signing rights in the future.

Most notably, perhaps, the Braves will lose their rights to highly regarded prospect Kevin Maitan, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter) and as earlier reporting suggested. A long list of others are also being stripped from the organization, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reported earlier. Backstop Abrahan Gutierrez, shortstop Yunior Severino, righty Juan Contreras, shortstop Livan Soto, righty Yefri d el Rosario, shortstop Yenci Pena, righty Guillermo Zuniga, outfielder Juan Carlos Negret, and outfielder Antonio Sucre are also heading on to the open market, according to the Baseball America report. Those prospects were members of the club’s vaunted 2016-17 July 2 class. A big name from the following signing period, Korean shortstop Jihwan Bae, is also being taken from the team, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, with outfielder Brandol Mezquita and shortstop Angel Rojas rounding out the list of departing prospects.

Maitan, in particular, was viewed as one of the best young international players in recent memory at the time of signing. Despite a tough debut in the Appalachian League, the infielder ranks 38th on MLB.com’s latest list of the top prospects in baseball. Even if it’s true that the current front office is not quite as enamored with Maitan as some others, he’s a notable asset to lose. (BA’s J.J. Cooper rounds up the latest impressions of Maitan right here.)

Looking forward, the Braves will also face restrictions for future amateur classes, as Passan details. The club will be capped at $10K per player for the 2019-20 period and will not be allowed to sign shortstop Robert Puason. According to Passan, the investigation found that the team had improperly agreed to a deal with him ahead of his market eligibility. In 2020-21, Atlanta will operate with half of the hard-capped spending capacity it otherwise would have had access to. Also, owing to an offer of “extra benefits” to 2017 draftee Drew Waters, the Braves will lose their third-round pick in next summer’s draft.

Other organizations will surely flock to sign the players that are now free agents. Those prospects will be allowed to retain their original bonuses in addition to negotiating new ones. Generally, those players will be subject to the already-extant rules and limitations in the international arena. But Passan tweets that teams will be allowed to use currently available international funds or draw from their 2018-19 pool to sign these players (but may not utilize both). MLB organizations still have uncommitted international money — some of it likely earmarked for Shohei Ohtani and a few other quality names still available — so there could be quite some competition for the former Braves prospects.

Clearly, the Braves took a significant hit for the amateur infractions that occurred during the regime of president of baseball operations John Hart and GM John Coppolella. Those two executives have departed already (see here and here), with the latter having received the brunt of the public scrutiny. Though precise details are still largely unreported, Passan says signing-bonus packaging was the primary concern identified. While the Yahoo Sports report acknowledges that other organizations have likely engaged in generally similar behavior, it seems the Braves’ actions were particularly brazen and widespread.

Newly minted GM Alex Anthopoulos will still have plenty of talent to work with, but the cupboard of young talent won’t be quite as stocked as the organization had hoped when it snapped up an impressive group of international free agents — evidently, through illicit means. On the one hand, these penalties won’t have any direct effect at the MLB level, since none of these players was close to the big leagues. On the other, Anthopoulos will not have as much flexibility to part with far-off talent if he enters the trade market in search of assets. That’s all the more notable given the restrictions on international spending rights for the coming seasons. The net result is that the Braves’ talent intake at the most youthful level will have been substantially curtailed for multiple consecutive seasons. Such a result runs directly counter to the overall strategy that the organization had employed.

For Anthopoulos to craft an overall slate of players that promises the kind of sustainability that Atlanta (like all organizations) hopes to create, he’ll have to remain all the more mindful of finding opportunities to draw in younger assets even while exploring ways of moving the major league roster into position to contend. Taking chances on talented but risky players on the 40-man roster is one way of infusing talent, but the club would need to sacrifice certainty and/or tie up valuable roster spots to do much of that. It’s also possible that the Braves will end up moving some higher-level prospects to build out the lower levels, though again that’s a diversion of resources that could otherwise be utilized in other ways. Any way you slice it, the organization will be much more constrained than it would have been absent the penalties. Of course, that also seems to be a fairly natural result of the fact that the team acquired these young players in an improper manner (the details of which, somewhat surprisingly, have yet to be fully detailed in firm reports).

Braves Set To Lose Prospects As Punishment For International Violations

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2017 at 10:27am CDT

NOVEMBER 21: An announcement could come today, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman adds on Twitter. Notably, he says to expect a “severe” punishment that strips the Braves of “many” recent international signees.

NOVEMBER 20: League action seems to be imminent, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that MLB has set meetings for tomorrow with certain Braves prospects. Though specific identities are not known, the report says that “nearly all of the team’s top international signings from 2016” are scheduled to speak with the league’s representatives. You can read Badler’s round-up of that huge signing class at this link with a BA subscription.

NOVEMBER 15: It’s been more than a month since Braves general manager John Coppolella and international scouting director Gordon Blakely resigned amid a league investigation into what has since been reported to be an “unprecedented” level of rules violations on the international market and in the domestic amateur draft. While there’s yet to be any official resolution, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves will “definitely” lose some prospects that were signed out of Latin America.

Previous reports have suggested that top 2016-17 signing Kevin Maitan, who received a $4.25MM signing bonus, could be among any potential losses, though it’s not yet clear which prospect(s) Atlanta stands to lose. There could be further penalties yet, however, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted earlier this morning that it seems likely that the Braves will be banned from signing any international amateurs for at least one signing period. O’Brien also noted that there’s a “good chance” the Braves will lose some prospects as punishment, while Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweeted that he’d be “surprised” if the Braves didn’t lose at least one prospect, listing Maitain, Ji-Hwan Bae and Abrahan Gutierrez as potential prospects that could be impacted.

The Red Sox found themselves in a scandal that cost them prospects in July 2016. Boston forced to tear up the contracts of five international prospects that were deemed to have been acquired as part of a “package deals” system. In essence, the team overpaid marginal prospects whose trainers also represented more highly regarded young talents, with the trainers then funneling money to the superior prospect as a means of circumventing Boston’s spending limitations.

Those five prospects were allowed to keep their initial signing bonuses and became free agents that were once again subject to international bonus pools. The Red Sox were barred from signing any international amateurs during the 2016-17 period, so there’d certainly be precedent for imposing a signing ban on the Braves.

Per Rosenthal, any Braves prospects whose contracts are voided as a result of the league’s investigation will be treated in that same manner rather than being deemed unrestricted free agents.

Gammons’ Latest: Cobb, Machado, Maitan, Braves, Swihart

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2017 at 7:38pm CDT

According to “industry consensus,” Alex Cobb’s free agent market will come down to a battle between the Cubs and Yankees, Peter Gammons writes in his newest entry at GammonsDaily.com. Chicago’s interest in Cobb (which is apparently mutual) is already known, and such other teams as the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays have also been linked to Cobb on the rumor mill, though New York would seem like something of a surprise candidate. Since Cobb is expected to land a pricey multi-year deal, it would be difficult for the Yankees to sign the right-hander and stay under the luxury tax threshold, unless the team was able to unload another big contract or two off its books. Starting pitching also doesn’t appear to be a critical need for the Yankees, as while a variety of young arms are battling for the fifth starter’s role, signing a more inexpensive veteran (or bringing back C.C. Sabathia) would seem like a likelier move than making a big splash to sign Cobb.

Here’s more from Gammons…

Orioles officials are debating whether or not to move Manny Machado to shortstop next season. While Machado is a free agent next winter, incumbent shortstop Tim Beckham may also not be the long-term answer at the position, as his scorching-hot first month with the O’s doesn’t erase other concerns about his overall offensive and defensive capability. Given that Machado himself would reportedly prefer to move from third base to his original minor league position, it doesn’t seem like the O’s would meet with any resistance from the star infielder if they decided on the move. Machado has been one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen but he has also displayed an above-average glove (5.4 UZR/150, +2 Defensive Runs Saved) over 433 career innings at short. A position shift would greatly alter Baltimore’s offseason plans and put them in line to seek out third base help, perhaps even a top free agent like Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier. The O’s could also aim lower and simply look for a platoon partner to join Beckham at the hot corner.
The Braves “expect to lose” prized prospect Kevin Maitan as part of MLB’s investigation into the team’s alleged violations of international and domestic amateur signing rules, Gammons hear from a source within the Atlanta organization. Interestingly, the feeling within the new Braves front office (now led by new GM Alex Anthopoulos) is that “Maitan was [not] worth the money or the hype,” so losing him wouldn’t be a major setback for the farm system. Maitan signed for a $4.25MM bonus at the opening of the 2016-17 July 2 international signing period, and he hit .241/.290/.340 in his first pro season, receiving 176 PA in rookie ball. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Maitan came into the season as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball and is still just 17 years old — even if the new Braves decision-makers weren’t keen on Maitan, they’d still be losing a significant trade chip if the league did indeed void his contract with the team.
Some Red Sox officials want to try Blake Swihart out at second base, as the team will be looking for help at the keystone with Dustin Pedroia sidelined for at least the first two months of the season. Boston has already been exploring the idea of using Swihart in a superutility role, as he is regarded as a good enough athlete to handle first base, third base, left field, and his former position of catcher. Perhaps most importantly for Swihart’s future, the former top prospect tells Gammons that he has “felt the best I’ve felt in two years” and seems fully recovered from the ankle injuries that stalled his development.

MLB Investigating Braves’ Kevin Maitan Signing

By Connor Byrne | October 2, 2017 at 9:31pm CDT

9:31pm: Coppolella and the Braves allegedly agreed to a deal this summer with 14-year-old Haitian Dominican shortstop prospect Robert Puason, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. As Rosenthal points out, Puason isn’t eligible to sign until he’s 16, so the Braves are in violation if they did indeed reach an agreement with him. But the league is also investigating other teams for agreeing to sign underage prospects, per Rosenthal. One international scouting director informed him that up to 15 clubs have reached deals with players who, like Puason, aren’t allowed to sign until 2019. Keith Law of ESPN adds (on Twitter) that there are some prospects who can’t sign until 2020 but already have verbal agreements with teams. The current international setup has led to frustration from baseball officials, meaning there will be another attempt to institute a worldwide draft after the collective bargaining agreement expires in 2021, Rosenthal writes.

As for Maitan, Rosenthal relays that MLB hasn’t found any improprieties in his signing to this point, though that could change.

6:19pm: As part of its investigation into ousted Braves general manager John Coppolella’s alleged violations of its international rules, Major League Baseball is looking into the team’s 2016 signing of prospect Kevin Maitan, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports in a must-read piece. In what would be a stunning development, MLB could declare the 17-year-old Maitan a free agent if it finds improprieties in the signing, according to Passan.

The Coppolella-led Braves inked the Venezuelan-born Maitan to a $4.25MM bonus at the outset of last year’s international free agent period. Maitan was the top free agent in the 2016 class and drew comparisons to Braves legend Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Sano at the time of his signing. In the months before Maitan joined the Braves, he lived in a two-bedroom apartment in Florida for “a significant amount of time” with another teenage prospect who also signed with the team, Passan details. It’s unclear, though, whether the Braves funded the prospects’ stay in the U.S., Passan adds.

In 2017, his first season in the Atlanta organization, the switch-hitting Maitan played shortstop at the rookie level and slashed .241/.290/.340 with two home runs in 176 plate appearances. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 5 prospect in the Braves’ deep farm system and the 38th-best youngster in the game. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs (No. 67) and Baseball America (No. 71) also regard Maitan as a top 75 prospect.

Coppollela may have skirted regulations when signing Maitan, but it seems he also disregarded MLB’s rules domestically. In August 2016, for instance, Coppolella allegedly contacted the representative for an impending free agent wanting to discuss the player well before the market opened in November, which would have violated tampering rules, per Passan. Additionally, Passan explains that Coppolella is alleged to have offered 2017 second-round pick Drew Waters a car in order to get him to sign a below-slot deal. The Braves signed the 18-year-old outfielder to a $1.5MM bonus that came in under the $1.675MM slot value of Waters’ pick, No. 41 overall, but his agent, Keith Grunewald, told sources Passan spoke with that Coppolella’s car offer was only made as a joke. Coppolella met with MLB officials in New York last week to discuss the accusations against him, Passan relays.

While it appears MLB could seriously punish the Braves for their actions under Coppollela, his career in the game may be over. Coppolella’s methods in Atlanta did not win him many fans among either his peers around the league or fellow members of the Braves’ front office, Passan writes. One high-ranking Braves official revealed to Passan that things became toxic with Coppolella around, saying last week that “this place is totally [expletive] up. I just hope when it blows up, it doesn’t take all of us down.”

NL Notes: D-backs, Braves, Bucs, Dodgers

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | July 2, 2016 at 5:46pm CDT

Diamondbacks right-handed prospect Yoan Lopez left Double-A Mobile on Wednesday for the second time in as many seasons, this time with the intention of giving up the sport, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks have since convinced Lopez to avoid making a definitive decision on his future for the time being, per general manager Dave Stewart, who conceded that the 23-year-old is “not having a good time” and is dealing with “serious emotional issues.” Lopez signed with the D-backs for a sizable $8.27MM bonus in January 2015, but the Cuba native has since posted subpar numbers (4.89 ERA, 5.7 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9) across 116 minor league innings. That could at least be thanks in part to Lopez’s traumatic experience immigrating to the United States, as Stewart pointed out: “It’s the escaping, crossing the water in a raft — or however he got here — living in Haiti and then going to the Dominican, leaving family members — it’s all of it.” As of now, Stewart and the organization are working to help Lopez get back on track.

Braves To Sign Kevin Maitan, 5 Other Top International Prospects

By charliewilmoth | July 2, 2016 at 9:04am CDT

10:04am: The Braves have officially announced the Maitan and Gutierrez signings.

9:04am: The Braves have agreed to terms with five top international prospects, including top overall prospect Kevin Maitan, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (Twitter links: 1 2 3 4 5 6). Maitan will receive $4.25MM. The Braves also nabbed catcher Abrahan Gutierrez, No. 18 on MLB.com’s international prospects list, for $3.5MM. Dominican righty Juan Contreras, not ranked on MLB.com’s list but ranked No. 41 on Baseball America’s list, will receive $1.2MM. Dominican shortstops Yunior Severino (No. 19) and Yenci Pena (No. 22) will each receive $1MM apiece, as will Venezuelan infielder Livan Soto (No. 24).

The big prize here is Maitan, who MLB.com writes is “the best international prospect since Miguel Sano” and compares to Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. He’s a switch-hitter with good power and a mature approach at the dish, and he also has an excellent arm and solid range. As the Jones comparison suggests, he ultimately projects as a third baseman. Baseball America also rates Maitan the top international prospect available this signing season, with their scouting report (subscriber only) noting that he could eventually have 70-grade raw power on the 20-80 scale. Maitan has long been connected to the Braves.

Gutierrez wins praise for his arm, receiving skills and line-drive stroke. Via Baseball America, Contreras rates as a potential power arm, as he already throws 89-94 MPH and has the projection to reach into the high 90s, although his secondary pitches lag behind his fastball. Severino has good bat speed and looks like an “offensive-minded middle infielder,” according to MLB.com’s scouting report. He struggles with offspeed stuff, although that’s hardly surprising given his age (16). Pena appears solid on both offense and defense and might be able to stay at shortstop, although he’s tall, at 6’2, and might eventually move to third. Soto’s hitting is more of the line-drive than home-run variety, although he has a good approach at the plate and could wind up playing shortstop at the big leagues if all goes well.

Needless to say, the Braves’ spending spree projects to incur penalties, including a 100 percent tax on overages beyond their assigned bonus pool of $4,766,000 and a restriction on signing any player for over $300K in either of the next two signing seasons. The addition of Maitan, however, along with the rest of their prospect haul, appears to be more than enough to make up for that.

International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | June 29, 2016 at 9:07pm CDT

Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).

Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:

Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ’Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.

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