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West Notes: Reyes, Maeda, Kazmir, Fowler

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An MLB source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that there is still no timeline regarding possible disciplinary action against Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. (Twitter link.) That appears to be due, at least in part, to the fact that the criminal proceedings have not been wrapped up. While the league’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal action for the commissioner to impose punishment, there is arguably less cause to move swiftly given that the allegations arose during the offseason.

  • The Astros made a play for Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda before he reached agreement with the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston remains an interesting potential factor in the free agent market. While the team probably does not need to make a splash, it is not difficult to imagine the team emerging as a dark horse for several players.
  • Houston was also said to have had interest in retaining Scott Kazmir before he decided to join the Dodgers, and it appears they were far from alone in that regard. The veteran lefty said that a dozen clubs had at least some communication with his camp this winter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.
  • The fact that free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler appeared at a Golden State Warriors game recently should not be interpreted as a sign he’s about to sign with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets. He hears that “nothing is cooking” between Fowler and the club at this time. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Chris Haft looks at the fit of some of San Francisco’s possible outfield targets.

International Notes: Kim, Maeda, Rodriguez, Sierra

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New Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim told reporters at a press conference in Seoul, South Korea that he wants to finish his career in the Major Leagues, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News writes. “I want to do well and retire in the U.S. before coming back to South Korea,” Kim said to the media. “If I return here before then, it would mean I’m no longer desirable to U.S. teams. I’d consider myself a loser if I take a U-turn to the Korean baseball league.” It’s understandable that Kim would set lofty expectations for himself after dominating the KBO over the past decade. In 10 professional seasons, Kim is a .318/.408/.488 hitter, and the 27-year-old enjoyed arguably his best season in 2015 when he belted a career-best 28 homers with the second-highest OPS (.979) of his career. Kim said he most looks forward to facing David Price — a pitcher he greatly respects — and is excited for the challenge of facing greater velocity throughout the league in American ball.

Here are a few more notes on the international market…

  • Eric Longenhagen breaks down a number of international players in an excellent piece for ESPN (Insider subscription required and recommended), including right-hander Kenta Maeda, who reportedly reached an agreement with the Dodgers on New Year’s Eve. Per Longenhagen, Maeda has an 87-92 mph fastball that can scrape a bit higher on the radar gun at times, though as he notes, we’re unlikely to see more velocity out of Maeda now that he’s pitching every fifth day instead of once a week. Maeda also features a slider, changeup, cutter and curveball, with the former two pitches being above-average to plus and the latter two being fringe offerings at best. Longenhagen opines that Maeda has a fifth starter’s arsenal that will play up to a No. 4 type of starter due to his control and pitch sequencing. He adds that while durability may be a factor — Maeda has 1500 pro innings under his belt at just 28 years of age — the Dodgers have quite a bit of rotation depth to make it through the upcoming season (even if several others arms are question marks themselves).
  • While Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez has not yet been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he’s “poised to sign” with Cincinnati upon clearance, per Longenhagen. Rodriguez probably won’t sign until after July 2, so his bonus will count against Cincinnati’s 2016-17 pool rather than its 2015-16 pool. The 21-year-old Rodriguez is said by Longenhagen to be a premier defender with enough speed to wreak havoc on the bases but little pop in his bat. Longenhagen writes that he could profile as a regular due to his glove and speed, though probably one that hits near the bottom of the order.
  • Part of the reason for Yaisel Sierra’s recent showcase was that he’s yet to receive a good offer from teams, Longenhagen hears. He calls Sierra a “good-bodied, two-pitch 24-year-old,” noting that many clubs see him as a middle reliever but some feel he could develop into a No. 4 type of arm with more reps. The best fit for Sierra, in Longenhagen’s estimation, is a rebuilding team that can afford to make a strong offer and patiently try to develop the hard-throwing righty as a starter.

Heyman On Cespedes, Parra, Davis

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There could be more great star free agents still available as we head into the New Year than ever before, in the estimation of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. The question now is – where will they land?  Here’s the latest from Heyman:

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he’s not going to make a major free agent splash between now and Opening Day, but Heyman hears that the Halos have been in contact with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and perhaps Alex Gordon as well.  It’s not clear how serious they are about signing one of the three, however.
  • Gerardo Parra is said to have “seven or eight” teams in on him and the Rockies are in “serious” pursuit.  Colorado has been considering trades involving Carlos Gonzalez and their other outfielders, so a Parra signing could be a part of a serious outfield overhaul for them.  Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season.  The Royals are also known to have interest.
  • When asked about free agent slugger Chris Davis, one person connected to the Astros said the player is “not in our plans.”  Davis would be a strong fit for Houston, in theory, but he is out of their price range.  The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he has led the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
  • When approached, the Yankees asked the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Andrew Miller, and Houston quickly rebuffed that attempt.  The Yankees are seeking a No. 1 pitcher in order to part with Miller, so it seems unlikely that he’ll go anywhere.
  • Word is that new Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to serve a lengthy suspension for his alleged domestic violence incident.  Heyman reasons that the Bombers wouldn’t have made the deal if they felt that Chapman was in store for a long ban.
  • The Padres still need a shortstop but one person with Padres connections wondered whether an investment of  “$60MM to $70MM” (his estimate) made sense for them given that they are not expected to contend this year. However, Heyman notes that president Mike Dee and GM A.J. Preller are aggressive and they might not want to pass up on the chance to ink a player like Desmond at a sensible number.  Heyman also IDs the Rockies and White Sox as dark horse teams for Desmond.
  • The Cardinals were another club that downplayed the possibility of a major move, but GM John Mozeliak went out and signed Mike Leake after publicly stating that he wasn’t going to make any “dynamic” moves.  Could they have another significant move in store?  Heyman has heard buzz that the Cards may also be looking again at a big bat at first or in the outfield.
  • When asked about the possibility of Cespedes, one Nationals-connected person said, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.”  That doesn’t make a signing likely by any means, but it also doesn’t rule out a pursuit.
  • There are still “about six to seven teams involved” when it comes to Cespedes, Heyman writes.
  • The Dodgers are still looking around after signing Scott Kazmir, so they are not out on Japanese star Kenta Maeda.  The Yankees, meanwhile, can be crossed off the list as they are not interested.  Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better.
  • Marlins president president David Samson contends that owner Jeffrey Loria still has “no interest” in selling the club.

West Notes: Henderson, M’s, Black, Dodgers

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The baseball world is mourning the loss of former All-Star outfielder Dave Henderson, who passed away this morning at age 57.  “Hendu” played for five teams over his 14-year career, including six years each with the Mariners and Athletics.  He was the first draft pick in Mariners franchise history and spent a decade as an M’s color commentator on TV and radio after his retirement.  The slugger was a member of the Oakland teams that won three straight AL pennants from 1988-90 and captured the 1989 World Series, and Henderson played a big role in that championship with a 1.129 OPS over 39 postseason plate appearances.  Of course, Henderson’s most famous playoff moment came in Game Five of the 1986 ALCS as a member of the Red Sox, when he hit a dramatic two-run homer (with two outs and two strikes on him) in the ninth inning to temporarily put Boston ahead, and Henderson then drove in the game’s winning run in the 11th on a sac fly.  That victory saved the Red Sox from elimination and sparked an unlikely comeback, as they then beat the Angels in Games Six and Seven to win the pennant.

“Hendu played just two seasons in Boston, but we always regarded him as one of us, and are grateful for the time we were able to enjoy his talent and infectious personality,” Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said in an official statement from the club.  “Everywhere he went, Henderson made friends. He was a great ambassador for our game, and we have lost him far too soon.”

We at MLBTR send our condolences to Henderson’s family and countless friends around the game.  Here are some news items from around the West divisions…

  • It’s a lot easier to win when your team has a high payroll (and/or a wealth of controllable young talent), and as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes, the Mariners are in something of a difficult spot since they’re a consistent mid-range payroll team that has a big chunk of their spending tied up in a handful of star contracts.  If the M’s aren’t willing to spend more, Baker notes, then GM Jerry Dipoto will be doubly challenged to find affordable young pieces to fit around those core stars.  Given Dipoto’s very busy offseason, it’s hard to say he hasn’t been trying to fulfill that exact goal.
  • Giants right-handed pitching prospect Ray Black turned a lot of heads in the Arizona Fall League, Andy Baggarly writes in a subscription-only piece for Baseball America.  Black’s fastball topped out at a whopping 104mph in AFL play and he also possesses (perhaps anecdotally) a 98mph changeup.  Black, 25, was a seventh-rounder for the Giants in the 2011 draft who has battled a variety of injuries and didn’t being his pro career until 2014.  Black has a 3.28 ERA over 60 1/3 minor league innings, exhibiting both some shaky control (6.1 BB/9) and overwhelming strikeout power (18.2 K/9).
  • The Dodgers have been linked to both Wei-Yin Chen and Kenta Maeda in free agency rumors, and Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times looks at the pros and cons for the club of signing either pitcher.  Whatever choice the team makes (if it goes with either starter), Dilbeck thinks the Dodgers need to address their rotation after falling short on a number of offseason pitching targets.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

Rosenthal On Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals

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After discussing the Mets’ budget-conscious offseason spending thus far — and questioning the team’s choice of an apparently conservative route after a run to the World Series last year — Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports runs through a variety of notes from around the league. Here are some highlights:

  • Even as the Dodgers pursue Kenta Maeda, the team is continuing to show interest in Scott Kazmir, per Rosenthal — despite an already heavily left-handed rotation. And there is some sentiment among rival executives that L.A. could make a play for yet another southpaw, Wei-Yin Chen.
  • The Giants remain unlikely to play at the top of the free agent outfield market, according to the report, but might look at the next level down. Two names in play are Dexter Fowler and Gerardo Parra, with another possibility being the addition of a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Gregor Blanco. San Francisco is also in communication with the Rockies on their outfielders, Rosenthal’s colleague Jon Morosi reports.
  • The Cardinals did not sign Mike Leake with intentions of spinning off another starter for outfield help, says Rosenthal. As he notes in another post, signing Leake — while allowing John Lackey to walk — came with some draft benefits, as the club didn’t have to sacrifice a pick to add the former and will gain a selection for losing the latter.

Latest On Kenta Maeda

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2:13pm: The Dodgers are interested in Maeda and are maintaining contact with his representatives in advance of the January 8th deadline, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

12:35pm: The deadline for an MLB team to sign Kenta Maeda is January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  Meanwhile, MLBTR has learned that the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have set the release fee at $20MM, the maximum allowed by the agreement between MLB and NPB.  Any team willing to meet that $20MM asking price will have the right to negotiate with Maeda over the next couple of weeks.

The question now is, which teams will be making a serious run at Maeda?  We learned recently that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.  The Padres will not be in the mix, despite sending a number of club officials to Japan in November.  The Cardinals looked to be one possibility, but they’re probably not considering the Japanese star after inking Mike Leake to a five-year, $80MM deal.

The Dodgers would appear to be a solid fit for Maeda after losing Zack Greinke to free agency and tearing up their agreement with Hisashi Iwaukma.  They have been expected to be among the teams in the hunt for the right-hander, but there hasn’t been any definitive word on that as of late.

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecasted a five-year, $60MM deal for Maeda this winter.  When factoring in a release fee of $20MM, that amounts to an $80MM commitment overall.

Rosenthal On Kazmir, A’s, Fernandez, Dodgers

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Re-signing Alex Gordon would help the Royals hedge against other stars possible leaving in the future, but that commitment could also take away the money needed to keep them, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes.  Five notable members of the defending World Champs – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Wade Davis – can hit the open market after the 2017 season.  All five can be costly for KC and that is certainly a consideration for the club as they weigh the Gordon situation.

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • The A’s one-year, $4.25MM deal with Henderson Alvarez takes them out of the mix for free agent Scott Kazmir, sources tell Rosenthal.  Alvarez will now compete for a spot in Oakland’s rotation with right-handers Jesse Hahn and Jarrod Parker and left-hander Sean Manaea.  On Monday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale identified the A’s as a finalist for Kazmir alongside the Royals, Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros.  Kazmir, 32 in January, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland.
  • The Dodgers are staying in touch with the Marlins on Jose Fernandez, but it’s still hard to see a deal taking place, Rosenthal writes.  Unfortunately for the Dodgers and other teams after the young ace, the Marlins’ expectations for a return packing only got higher after the Shelby Miller trade, sources tell Rosenthal.  Of course, that’s saying a lot since the bar has been set high all winter.  high expectations from the start.  Conversely, teams are concerned about how many innings Fernandez will pitch in 2016 and beyond. “Makes it hard to price it correctly for both sides,” one source with knowledge of the Dodgers/Marlins talks said.  For his career, Fernandez has posted a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.  There’s little question that he’s one of the game’s most effective starters, with his low cost and youth making him one of the most intriguing assets in baseball.
  • The Padres sent several club officials to Japan in November, but they won’t be a serious player for right-hander Kenta Maeda, sources tell Rosenthal.  The Padres went to Japan in order to “introduce themselves in a market where they previously had only a minimal presence,” Rosenthal writes, but apparently they were not gunning hard for the Hiroshima Carp star.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Frazier, Turner

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Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda has traveled to Los Angeles to start meeting with teams, according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).  The Dodgers, he adds, are expected to be among the clubs that place a bid in order to negotiate with the right-hander.

If the Dodgers are serious about making a run at the Hiroshima Carp star, they might find that the market for him isn’t as competitive as it might have been a few weeks ago.  We learned last week that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.

Here’s more out of L.A.:

  • Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters, including Shaikin (Twitter link) that he didn’t land Todd Frazier himself because he wanted Justin Turner to remain at third base.  Acquiring Frazier and putting him elsewhere on the diamond would have been “messy,” in Friedman’s estimation.  Frazier, of course, went to the White Sox in Wednesday’s three-way deal involving the Reds and Dodgers.
  • Friedman says that the Dodgers like the newly-acquired Frankie Montas as a starting pitcher and, if not, they see him as an “impact bullpen arm,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.  Many scouts see Montas as a power reliever.     Friedman says that his scouts believe that Montas has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the minors, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets.
  • Friedman said he knows some teams are interested in the players he acquired today, but he cautioned that one trade is not necessarily precursor to another, Shaikin tweets.  Still, when asked if he’s now more comfortable with the idea of parting with elite pitching prospects, Friedman answered in the affirmative (link).
  • In an interview on KLAC, Friedman did acknowledge that the trade improves the team’s “trade capital to match up with other teams,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).
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