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Quick Hits: Rebuilding, Rangers, Maeda, D-backs

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The recent successes of the Cubs and Astros might ensure the team-building strategy of “tanking” (that is, intentionally fielding a series of non-competitive teams) will continue to remain popular in the near future, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes in a long feature story. The Braves, for example, appear to be employing a variation of the Astros’ rebuilding approach, the Phillies are doing something somewhat similar, and the Brewers could conceivably do the same. But “tanking” isn’t without its downfalls. “[Y]ou risk losing the fan base and alienating a fan base and in some cases they come back and in some cases they don’t come back,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington, who traded many of his team’s key players beginning in 2008, after he had been on the job for about a year. “I don’t know, I mean, we’re a copycat society, let alone industry, so I think it’s worked remarkably well on a couple of fronts. I think once it doesn’t work well, then it probably won’t be a thing to do anymore.”

Part of the “tanking” strategy simply involves trading assets to acquire, and clear playing time for, younger talent, but another part of it is potentially more controversial — losing teams receive higher draft picks, so in some cases, it might be sound strategy for a franchise to structure itself so that it doesn’t play well. The results can be hard to watch, as the Astros frequently were before this season. And for some markets, tanking might be difficult or impossible. The Astros and Cubs “were losing for a long time and a lot of markets can’t do that,” says Reds president Walt Jocketty. “We can’t do that in our market.” Here’s more from around the game.

  • The Rangers have a void to fill at catcher, and it’s unclear how they’ll do it, Evan Grant of Dallas Morning News writes. Matt Wieters might have been one possibility, but he disappeared from the market when he accepted the Orioles’ qualifying offer. The Brewers could deal Jonathan Lucroy, and might even be more likely to with new GM David Stearns in place, but the market for Lucroy could be strong this winter given the lack of strong catching options available via free agency. The Rangers got solid performances from Robinson Chirinos and journeyman Chris Gimenez last season, but they have little depth behind them, particularly with Jorge Alfaro sent to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels deal. They also traded Tomas Telis to the Marlins when they dealt for Sam Dyson. “We understood that it was going to leave a void in the system,” says GM Jon Daniels. “But we look back on those trades we made and don’t have any regrets.”
  • Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart says he’s continued to monitor Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes (Twitter links). Assuming Maeda is posted (which seems likely), it probably won’t be for at least another week or two, after Team Japan’s run in the WBSC Premier 12 international tournament comes to an end. The Diamondbacks’ interest in Maeda has never been a secret, and it still sounds strong now. Crasnick also notes that the D-backs could pursue Yovani Gallardo. They might not be able to afford a higher-tier pitcher like Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann.

Market Notes: Matsuda, Maeda, O’Day, Aoki, Shark, Santana

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There may be another name to watch on the free agent market, as Japanese infielder Nobuhiro Matsuda has declared free agency and is looking for a deal with a major league club, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). The 32-year-old has spent the vast majority of his time at third base while playing for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league. Matsuda has delivered consistent power numbers over the years, but showed a significant increase in his home run output last year, when he swatted a career-best 35 long balls. However, as Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker notes on Twitter, that tally was likely boosted by a favorable change in his home park’s dimensions. Over 603 plate appearances on the year, Matsuda slashed a robust .287/.357/.533. While his age (and lack of MLB experience) limits his value, the veteran does have the benefit of entering a market that lacks much in the way of hot corner options. And because he was eligible to become a free agent, he won’t need to go through the posting process (or have any part of his potential earnings reduced by a release fee).

Here are more notes from around the game as the free agent market kicks into gear:

  • Japanese righty Kenta Maeda likely won’t be posted until after the “Super 12” tournament is completed in late November, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports. His team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, is still expected to make the intriguing starter available. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took an early look at Maeda as a part of his annual top fifty free agent list, explaining that the Diamondbacks could be a strong contender for his services.
  • Reliever Darren O’Day is drawing a lot of attention early in the offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. While a variety of large-budget clubs — including the Tigers, Nationals, Mets, and Yankees — are expected to have interest, Sherman says the Orioles will have a chance to match any offers.
  • Lefty Mark Buehrle still has not told his agents whether or not he’ll pitch next year, Sherman adds. But he’ll draw plenty of interest if he does, as about ten clubs have already reached out to see whether he would be pitching or retiring.
  • Free agent outfielder Nori Aoki is completely healthy after dealing with concussion issues late in the season, agent Nez Balelo tells Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Giants’ decision to decline a seemingly affordable option on the veteran was motivated by a desire for flexibility, Balelo indicated, rather than Aoki’s ability to return at full speed. Aoki remains an often-underappreciated player, and he’ll be an interesting target for teams looking for value in the corner outfield.
  • It’s shaping up as a strong market for righty Jeff Samardzija, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. He struggled mightily in the run prevention department last year, but many executives remain big fans of his stuff and makeup.
  • Southpaw Johan Santana still wants to return in 2016, agent Peter Greenberg tells Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The 36-year-old’s most recent comeback attempts have been derailed by an array of ailments, but the two-time Cy Young winner is evidently still committed. He last threw in the big leagues in 2012.
  • If you’re interested in reading up on what this winter may have in store, here are a few pieces looking at the market from a broader perspective. In an interesting and well-researched piece, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca explains that the addition of the second Wild Card has made deadline additions more difficult — which, in turn, makes it all the more important to build a team over the winter. The active period of front office turnover that we just experienced may lead to increased activity on the trade market, Sherman suggests.
  • Likewise, a variety of outlets have recently taken different approaches to looking at individual players. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney provides a list of free agents who he thinks could be under-valued on the market. And ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed executives around the league on a variety of subjects, providing extensive quotes and analysis on different segments of the market.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Red Sox, Jepsen

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Though he gutted out a quality start after a tough first inning last night,Yankees southpaw  CC Sabathia is dealing with bone-on-bone arthritis in his right knee, the left-hander told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom last night. Sabathia told Bloom that he’ll eventually need knee replacement surgery, but “that’s the price you pay.” Sabathia has been wearing a brace on his injured knee which he says prevents the ligaments in the joint from rubbing together when he plants to throw a pitch. As such, he’s able to maintain his mechanics.

A few more notes from around the AL to kick off the week…

  • The Red Sox could use an “alpha dog” atop their rotation, writes Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com. Gammons breaks down a number of options for the Sox, including Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda (whom, according to one scout that spoke to Gammons, is “too slight” to pitch every fifth day in the Majors). Gammons outlines the case for and against the Sox reeling in top free agents David Price and Zack Greinke within his column, and he also looks at Johnny Cueto’s struggles since over the past month with the Royals.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that while the trade of Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins doesn’t stand out as one of the more memorable deals from this past deadline, it had a significant impact on the Rays’ clubhouse. There was a feeling in the air that the team had given up by trading one of its top setup men to a team they were chasing in the Wild Card race, Topkin hears from people around the clubhouse, especially considering that the return was a pair of low-level minor leaguers who weren’t going to contribute in 2014.

NL West Links: Betancourt, Venable, Hall

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The Dodgers’ losing streak extended to five games after dropping a 3-2 result to the Astros today.  It was another rough outing for the struggling Los Angeles bullpen, as Kenley Jansen blew a save by allowing Houston to tie the game in the ninth, and Chris Hatcher picked up the loss after giving up a 10th-inning walkoff homer to Jason Castro.  Entering Sunday, Dodgers relievers had combined for a 6.00 ERA since the All-Star break, the second-worst bullpen ERA of any club in the second half.  Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • Rafael Betancourt was designated for assignment by the Rockies earlier today, and the veteran reliever told reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding) that he’s at peace with the fact that his 12-year career could be over.  He isn’t too optimistic about another team picking him up, saying “I don’t see any team that’s a contender right now that is looking to” acquire a struggling 40-year-old.  Betancourt may be a little hard on himself; several ERA indicators (3.32 FIP, 4.27 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA) show that he’s pitching much better than his 6.18 ERA would imply, and his velocity, strikeouts and walk rates are around his career averages.  Betancourt has been hurt by a .328 BABIP and a stunningly low 52.6% strand rate over his 39 1/3 innings of work.
  • The Dodgers declined to claim Will Venable on trade waivers, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.  Los Angeles is rather deep with outfield options but, as Morosi notes, the Dodgers could’ve used Venable in center with Joc Pederson struggling.  The Dodgers were hardly alone in passing on Venable, who went through waivers and then garnered interest from several teams.  The Padres dealt Venable to the Rangers last week.
  • The Diamondbacks are eager to make an impact in Japan both marketing-wise and in terms of player acquisitions, team president Derrick Hall told Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times.  “For us, we’ve always looked to be identified with someone in Japan.  We’re still hoping to find that talent one day,” Hall said.  “It’s a dream of mine personally to have a Japanese player in a D’Back uniform, as well as a Mexican-born player who can have an impact. Because I’ve seen what a difference that makes having grown up and cut my own teeth in the Dodgers organization all those years. Of course I was around during the time of Nomo-san and Nomomania and that was electric.”
  • Hall, Tony La Russa, Randy Johnson and Luis Gonzalez recently traveled to Japan on a goodwill tour on the Diamondbacks’ behalf, and while they weren’t specifically there to scout players, they did see Kenta Maeda and Shohei Otani pitch in NPB action.  Arizona was one of several teams linked to Maeda last offseason before the righty decided to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carp.  Maeda could be posted this winter, while Otani is just 21 and it’ll be at least a few seasons before the Nippon Ham Fighters consider making him available to North American teams.  Hall said the D’Backs are “going to be aggressive” on signing talent they believe in, though given the large fees involved in signing top-flight Japanese talent, “it makes it more difficult for teams like us in smaller markets.  When we write that big a check, we cannot miss. We’ve gotta be right.”

Kenta Maeda Re-Signs With Hiroshima Carp, Will Not Be Posted To MLB

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One of the top pitching talents thought to be available this offseason will instead remain in Japan, as the Hiroshima Carp have signed right-hander Kenta Maeda to a new contract, The Japan Times reports.  The re-signing comes on the heels of last week’s news that the Carp told Maeda he wasn’t going to be posted this winter, as per Jim Allen of the Kyodo News (Twitter link).

The 26-year-old Maeda is coming off his fifth consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA, having posted a 2.60 mark with 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 187 innings for the Carp.  While he’s not thought to have the same ceiling as countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, most feel that Maeda can, at the very least, be a competent mid-rotation starter in Major League Baseball.  He’s totaled 1303 1/3 innings in a seven-season career with the Carp, working to a 2.44 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.

“I am thinking this [going to the majors] is close to becoming a reality. Hopefully I can go in the offseason next year,” Maeda said.

As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote in a scouting report following Maeda’s last game of the season, the right-hander offers three average-or-better pitches — a 90-94 mph fastball, an 80-84 mph slider and an 85-86 mph changeup — and occasionally works in a cutter and curveball.  Maeda won’t turn 27 until next April, so his age alone could’ve resulted in a significant asking price.  Under the new rules agreed to with Nippon Professional Baseball last winter, however, the Carp would only have been entitled to a maximum $20MM posting fee — a far cry from the posting fees of Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, both of which were in excess of $50MM.

Maeda could still be posted next offseason and would be an unrestricted free agent following the 2017 season.  While the entire list of clubs with interest in him is unknown, the Red Sox and Phillies have both scouted Maeda, with Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro personally making a visit to Japan to watch the right-hander.  Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart candidly admitted that he “loves” Maeda and would be a player if the right-hander were posted.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Maeda twelfth on his list of this offseason’s top 50 free agents.

D’Backs Notes: Maeda, Billingsley, Montero

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The Diamondbacks will be in the hunt for Kenta Maeda if the Japanese righty is made available this winter, GM Dave Stewart told reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert).  “I love Maeda,” Stewart said. “I love him. We have a lot of video and film and we have people who have seen him. We think that he’s got a chance to be very successful in Major League Baseball. We’re going to try to be in on the market when he does post, if he does post.”  Here’s some more notes from Stewart and other Snakes-related items…

  • Stewart confirmed the team’s interest in Chad Billingsley, saying the right-hander is “definitely a possibility for us.”  Billingsley has been sidelined for almost two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery and a torn flexor tendon.  Stewart represented Billingsley back when the GM was a player agent.
  • “I don’t know how big we’re going to play” for Yasmany Tomas, Stewart said, given the Cuban outfielder’s escalating price tag.  The D’Backs do like Tomas’ potential and they “definitely have to consider being a part of that.”
  • The Diamondbacks want to acquire a starting pitcher, though Stewart won’t pay too much of a prospect cost to do so.  “I’m not trying to put us in a backward position, especially in our Minor League system,” the GM said.
  • Stewart again stressed that he hasn’t “shopped any of our players,” including catcher Miguel Montero, though “all of our players have been asked about.  That’s the best way I can put it.”  Montero has been rumored to be available as Arizona looks to free up some payroll space.  Stewart said he hasn’t spoken to Montero about the trade rumors since “I don’t see any point in raising concerns when there are none.”
  • Montero’s market is examined by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, who feels that while Montero could be draw attention from teams who fail to sign Russell Martin, the Arizona catcher’s recent poor hitting and hefty contract could be deterrents.  “If [the D’Backs] won’t chew down any dollars, I’d say the return won’t be as good as most think.  It also depends on how motivated the acquiring club is,” a rival executive told Piecoro.
  • Stewart is keeping an open mind about whether to use Daniel Hudson as a starter or a reliever as the right-hander continues his recovery from his second Tommy John surgery, Piecoro reports.  “We had a discussion about that, and we’re not really sure.  We’d like to best utilize him in a way that we can get the most out of him,” Stewart said.  “We’re going to have to have more discussions with our training staff, and I’d like to ask some people externally about what they think of his condition and how we can best utilize him without hurting him.”

International Links: Fernandez, Maeda

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Here’s the latest on a pair of highly-touted players who would be notable additions to the free agent market — if they become available:

  • After playing in his team’s game on Friday, Cuban second baseman Jose Fernandez and his cousin, catcher Lazaro Herrera, were absent for unknown reasons, manager Victor Mesa told Cuban media outlet Giron (Spanish link). Baseball America’s Ben Badler hasn’t been able to confirm whether or not Fernandez and Herrera have defected, but he writes that were Fernandez to defect and be granted free agency, he’d immediately become one of the most sought after free agents on the market. Badler ranked Fernandez as the No. 3 player in Cuba back in late August. He praises Fernandez’s excellent bat control and plate discipline, noting that he also has occasional pop. Fernandez hit .326/.482/.456 in Serie Nacional’s 2013-14 season and was off to a .315/.415/.426 start in 65 PA this season.
  • It is still an open question whether Japanese starter Kenta Maeda will be posted this year. Noting that posturing is an element in public discussions of whether Maeda will be made available, Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down Maeda’s last start of the year. Per Badler, the righty — who relies on location given his good-but-not-great pure stuff — was crisp until his pitch count crept up. Clubs will get an interesting chance to see Maeda face big leaguers later this winter, as he is slated to throw for the Japanese club that will face a barnstorming roster put together by MLB.

Hiroshima Carp, Kenta Maeda Undecided On Posting

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Hiroshima Carp owner Hajime Matsuda said today that his club is not yet sure whether it will make top pitcher Kenta Maeda available through the posting system, as the Japan Times reports. “We have the right,” said Matsuda. “We would like to let him go, but based on his production this year it will be difficult.”

For his part, Maeda said that he has not decided his own preference at this point. He is reported to have informed the Carp last year of his desire to be posted, however.

Maeda did put up a rather pedestrian 11-8 record. But by most measures valued in today’s MLB, he was far from unproductive: the 26-year-old worked to a 2.56 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, stats that are largely in line with his career figures. To be sure, he did not return to the stellar 1.53 earned run mark he put up in 2012, but a brief glance at his stat line shows that Maeda allowed half the number of home runs that year that he did this year and last, which alone probably accounts for much of the discrepancy.

Ben Badler of Baseball America recently published a scouting report suggesting that Maeda’s stuff remains as intriguing as ever. Though he is not viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter, Maeda is seen as a good bet to be a valuable rotation piece at the MLB level. His solid repertoire is matched, it should be noted, by a track record of durability (at least 175 innings a year since 2009).

Remember that Maeda will be posted, if at all, under new rules agreed to in the midst of last year’s Masahiro Tanaka drama. Among other things, the release fee can be set no higher than $20MM, and any major league team willing to pay the established release fee is permitted to negotiate with the posted player.

In large part, those rule changes tend to discredit the notion that Maeda will not be posted because the Carp could always make him available for the maximum fee and then pull him back if no deal is struck. Though the above-cited story suggests a posting is “unlikely,” the only quote from Matsuda hardly implies that the club has made any decision against posting.

Quick Hits: Maeda, Headley, Miller, Phils

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26-year-old Kenta Maeda of Japan’s Hiroshima Carp is expected to become available through the posting system, making him an intriguing potential addition to the upcoming free agent market. Ben Badler of Baseball America has a report on Maeda’s last outing in the Nippon League, writing that he “flash[ed] three average or better pitches with good fastball command.” Though slight in build, Maeda steadily worked in the 90-94 mph range. Ultimately, Badler indicates that, while the righty is not viewed as a top-of-the-rotation arm at the MLB level, he should draw plenty of interest if he is made available.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

  • The Yankees may be interested in re-signing mid-season acquisition Chase Headley, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. A move to bring back the third baseman would appear to be a strong indication that Alex Rodriguez is not expected to be an option there, Heyman explains.
  • The Tigers thought they were going to acquire then-Red Sox lefty Andrew Miller at the trade deadline after meeting Boston’s asking price, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But the Sox gave the Orioles one last chance, resulting in Eduardo Rodriguez heading north to a division rival. As Sherman notes, the eleven outs that Miller recorded in the ALDS for the O’s, rather than the Tigers, had an undeniable impact on Baltimore’s three-game sweep.
  • Looking ahead to Miller’s free agency, one executive tells Sherman that three years and $21MM is probably just the starting point for the southpaw’s market. The ability to deploy Miller in the way that the Yankees used Dellin Betances in his breakout year — often throwing multiple innings in winnable games — greatly increases his value, says Sherman.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says “there’s nothing that’s really off the table” for the team as it enters the offseason, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. Though he said he does not believe “this organization needs a philosophical overhaul as far as how we evaluate players,” Amaro said the team needs to get younger and more athletic while “looking for more long-term solutions” in the player market. Ultimately, the organization could put added emphasis on “speed and contact” given the lack of power bats available.

NL Notes: Nashville, Phillies, Maeda, Perez, Pagan

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We recently covered the many changes in minor league affiliates. One of those — the Brewers parting ways with former Triple-A affiliate Nashville — appeared to feature considerable consternation on the MLB team’s part. As Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, Nashville’s owner has now acknowledged that he wanted a new parent club because the Brewers had not done enough to put a winning ballclub on the field at the Triple-A level. Nashville’s new MLB club, the Athletics, has enjoyed a strong recent run of success at the top minor league level.

  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has logged significant air miles in recent days, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. In addition to taking a personal look at Yasmany Tomas, Amaro flew to Japan to put eyes on starter Kenta Maeda, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Both international targets offer relative youth, a rare commodity on the free agent market, though that obviously increases their appeal to other clubs as well.
  • Dodgers reliever Chris Perez has already earned $1.5MM in incentives this year on top of his $2.3MM base salary, reports Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. He picked up $500K each for his 35th, 40th, and 45th appearances, and will trigger another half-million payday with his next call from the pen. The 29-year-old has struggled to a 4.27 ERA over 46 1/3 frames, and his peripherals (7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 37.7% groundball rate, 5.07 FIP) do not paint a more favorable picture.
  • Giants center fielder Angel Pagan will undergo season-ending back surgery, Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News tweets. The 33-year-old has performed well when healthy, but has made just 718 plate appearances since signing a four-year, $40MM contract before the 2013 season.
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