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Kenley Jansen

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

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Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Seager, Jansen

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he’s yet to discuss a contract extension with the team but hopes to do so this offseason. Roberts is under contract through the 2022 campaign already, so the team doesn’t necessarily need to feel any urgency to get a new agreement worked out, although it’s common for managers in good standing with their clubs to ink deals that avoid “lame duck” status (i.e. managing through the final season of a contract with no deal in place the following year). President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells Castillo that the Dodgers “fully expect [Roberts] to be a large part of our future success.” While the Dodgers obviously won’t repeat as World Series champions, they still won 106 games during the regular season and, as Castillo profiles, dealt with a significant slate of injuries to various key players throughout the regular season and the playoffs.

Some more notes o the Dodgers…

  • Corey Seager will head into the open market for the first time in his career on the heels of a .306/.381/.545 showing across his past two seasons (147 games, 641 plate appearances, 148 wRC+). He missed two months this year after an errant fastball broke his hand, but his bat looks as good or even better than it did prior to 2018 Tommy John surgery. Seager spoke of the difficulty of facing the “unknown” that is free agency but also made clear he’d love to return to the Dodgers (video via Sportsnet L.A.). “Absolutely,” Seager replied when asked if he wants to return. “I grew up here. I’ve spent a lot of time here. I believe in what these guys do. I believe in how we go about it. Yeah, absolutely.”
  • It’s a similar story for Kenley Jansen, who hopes to be a Dodger for life, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. Jansen’s decline in 2019-20 was a notable storyline for the Dodgers, but DiGiovanna explores how Jansen made some changes to his training regimen at the suggestion of director of team performance Brandon McDaniel. Jansen’s velocity and cutter movement rebounded in 2021, and he turned in a 2.22 ERA through 69 innings of relief. That said, Jansen’s strikeout, swinging-strike and chase percentages were at or below their 2020 levels, and his walk rate jumped to 12.9 percent — his highest rate since his rookie year back in 2010. Teammates Trea Turner (who faced Jansen as an opponent in the first half) and Clayton Kershaw discuss with DiGiovanna the manner in which Jansen has evolved as a pitcher since his days with a cutter-only approach. Another multi-year figures to be out there for Jansen, but given that he’ll pitch next year at 34, it figures to be a good bit shorter than the five-year pact he signed in the 2016-17 offseason.

Dodgers To Start Buehler, Kershaw In First Two NLDS Games

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is sticking with a familiar formula for his playoff rotation, telling reporters (including Jack Harris and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw will start the first two games of the team’s NLDS matchup with the Padres.

Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May are on tap to start Games 3, 4, and 5, though the three pitchers wouldn’t necessarily be deployed in that order.  As always, the Dodgers will be flexible with their pitching arrangement during the postseason.  “There might be a situation where those guys [Urias, Gonsolin, May] are available in any of the preceding games as a side day to then make a start,” Roberts said.

It also isn’t out of the question that Buehler returns on short rest to pitch in a possible Game 5, though the first step for the Dodgers is making sure that Buehler can get through as much of Game 1 as possible.  Two separate trips to the injured list due to a blister problem limited Buehler to just 11 2/3 innings after August 21, and he tossed only four innings (73 pitches) in Game 1 of the Dodgers’ wild card series with the Brewers.

Whether Buehler could pitch longer against the Padres is still up in the air, as Roberts said he will “keep an eye on him each inning….I can’t say it’s scripted or when we’re going to deploy our guys in the pen.”  The final five innings of the Game 1 victory over Milwaukee were handled by Urias (three innings), and then an inning each from Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen, with the reliever trio holding the Brewers scoreless.

Jansen’s outing wasn’t without some shakiness, however, which left Roberts saying that Jansen is still the team’s closer, but no longer the automatic option in save situations.  “There are still going to be times that I might need him in a different inning, and he’s on-board with whatever to help us win baseball games.  It’s a title, but I think that in practice, there are certain innings and certain parts of the lineup that I think he’s the best option.”  While Jansen has a 1.97 ERA over 50 1/3 career postseason innings, he also has a few infamous meltdowns on his resume — over his last eight World Series appearances, Jansen has a loss and is only 1-for-4 in save chances.

Though the L.A. pitching staff is well rested after their two-game sweep of the Brew Crew, the Dodgers will still add some more depth, as Roberts intimated that he will add an extra pitcher to the NLDS roster.  Los Angeles deployed 15 position players and 13 pitchers on its wild card series roster, but one of those position players will be left out of the NLDS in favor of another arm, likely right-hander Dylan Floro.

Kenley Jansen Reports To Dodgers Camp; Tested Positive For COVID-19

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Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen reported to camp today—as first reported by Pedro Moura of The Athletic—rejoining his team after a positive test for COVID-19 prevented him from participating in Dodgers workouts to this point. It was previously unknown why Jansen had yet to arrive at Dodger Stadium, but he confirmed today that he indeed tested positive for the virus. Evidently, he has since passed the two tests necessary to permit him to return to action.

Jansen told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that he expects to be ready for the Dodgers’ July 23 matchup with the Giants to kick off the season. With Opening Day less than two weeks away, that seems like an ambitious goal for a pitcher who has thus far been unable to train with his team in Spring Training 2.0, but the build-up to game shape might be less steep for a bullpen pitcher like Jansen, who’s been throwing consistently during the baseball stoppage.

Should Jansen need more to time to recover, the Dodgers’ deep bullpen should give them options to deploy in the ninth inning in place of Jansen: Joe Kelly and Blake Treinen are accomplished veteran relievers who could pick up the slack for a time.

Jansen, 32, has dealt with heart issues in the past, though he’s said that those problems have not influenced his intent to play in the shortened 2020 season. Last year was arguably Jansen’s worst season since arriving in MLB in 2010. For the better part of a decade, he was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, though declining velocity has troubled him in recent years. As 2020 gets underway, we will cross our fingers for a healthy, bounce-back season from Jansen.

Kenley Jansen Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.

Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.

The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.

Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.

Andrew Friedman On Kenley Jansen

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Not long ago, it would been almost impossible to imagine anyone but Kenley Jansen serving as the Dodgers’ closer. But after an uncharacteristically pedestrian 2019 season for the long-dominant right-hander, Jansen may not be a lock for the role next year. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Monday that Jansen’s still the team’s closer as of now, but LA “will see how things play out” in regards to the job (Twitter link via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).

Whether the 32-year-old Jansen will even be a Dodger in 2020 isn’t necessarily etched in stone, as he could opt out of the remainder of his contract. In all likelihood, though, Jansen’s going to stay put. Abandoning what’s left of his deal would mean leaving two years and $38MM on the table, which would look like an ill-advised move in the wake of the season Jansen just had.

Jansen earned his current pact – a five-year, $80MM guarantee – on the heels of an otherworldly 2016 showing, and while he continued to thrive the next season, he has been closer to good than elite since 2018. At least in comparison to his past self, Jansen was fairly ordinary this year. He posted a 3.71 ERA/3.48 FIP with 33 saves on 41 tries over 63 innings, giving him a personal-high ERA and a career-worst blown saves total. While Jansen did log 11.43 strikeouts per nine against 2.29 walks – a ratio just about any pitcher would sign up for – it’s not as impressive for a hurler who regularly posted a K/9 in the 13-14 range during his halcyon days.

Jansen was a key factor for the Dodgers in past playoff runs, but that wasn’t the case this year during their first-round loss to the Nationals. He threw just 1 2/3 innings during the Dodgers’ five-game defeat, including two-thirds of a frame in the decisive matchup of the series. By then, the Dodgers were already down 7-3 after an implosion from Joe Kelly.

Even though Jansen seemingly lost some of LA’s trust in 2019, he’s still likely to return as one of the team’s top relievers next season. Jansen and the rest of the club’s bullpen faced their fair share of scrutiny throughout the campaign, though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers make a noteworthy effort to improve the unit over the winter. If the Dodgers end up in the market for a new closer, Aroldis Chapman (should he opt out of his Yankees deal) and Will Smith stand out as a couple potential free agents who could give the club an end-of-game upgrade over Jansen.

Dave Roberts Discusses Kenley Jansen

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By Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen’s lofty standards, this has been a difficult season. In his latest appearance Wednesday, the 31-year-old allowed a ninth-inning solo home run en route to a blown save against the Blue Jays. The juggernaut Dodgers still went on to another victory, but Jansen’s seemingly one of their few players who hasn’t enjoyed a stellar season.

Jansen has already surrendered the second-most homers of his career (eight) and racked up his second-highest total of blown saves (six, in 32 chances) through 48 2/3 innings in 2019. And while most relievers would be satisfied with Jansen’s 3.70 ERA/3.58 FIP, those numbers rank among career worsts for a hurler who has logged a stingy 2.32 ERA/2.24 FIP since debuting in 2011.

Jansen’s dip in performance (which dates back to last year) is among the reasons the Dodgers’ bullpen has been shaky at times this season. But there’s no imminent end-of-game change coming for Los Angeles, manager Dave Roberts explained to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, saying he’s “not tempted” to remove Jansen as closer. The two did, however, have a “long” meeting after Wednesday’s game, reports Plunkett, who writes that Jansen also met with Dodgers president Andrew Friedman. Jansen indicated Roberts and Friedman gave him votes of confidence, but Roberts acknowledged that if things don’t turn around in the coming weeks, “then there should be a conversation and then I will have to make a decision.”

For now, Roberts is betting on improvement from the three-time All-Star, as is Jansen himself. “I’m going to be there” in the ninth, said Jansen, who insisted he’s not worried about his status. Despite his issues this year, Jansen has still posted some of the top numbers of anyone in LA’s bullpen. When it comes to regular Dodgers relievers, only Pedro Baez and Julio Urias have bettered Jansen at preventing runs (though Joe Kelly has overcome a rough start to dominate in recent weeks), and no one on the team rivals Jansen’s wealth of game-ending experience.

Back in 2017, Jansen enjoyed one of the single greatest seasons any reliever has ever delivered. He fired 68 1/3 innings of 1.32 ERA/1.31 FIP ball, recording 14.36 K/9 against 0.92 BB/9 with 41 saves on 42 tries. That near-unbeatable version of Jansen also registered a career-best 18.2 swinging-strike rate, relying on his signature cutter 85.4 percent of the time (per Statcast) to stymie the opposition. That pitch is no longer as formidable, though, and Jansen has turned to it less as a result. He has gone to it at a 76.7 percent rate this year, filling in the other 23.3 percent with a four-seamer and a slider that he has relied on to almost matching extents.

Jansen’s velocity on his cutter, four-seamer and slider has fallen in comparison to his dream ’17 season, but that’s not to say hitters have teed off on any of them. In fact, according to Statcast, Jansen has produced above-average results with each offering. Unsurprisingly, the .287 weighted on-base average hitters have managed against him trumps his .263 expected wOBA – the latter of which ranks in the majors’ 93rd percentile. Jansen’s also near the summit of the league in strikeout percentage (91st percentile; he has fanned 11.04 per nine while walking only 2.03), fastball spin (96th percentile), hard-hit rate allowed (97th percentile) and average exit velocity against (99th percentile; 84.5 mph).

By Statcast’s metrics, not to mention Jansen’s 17th-ranked swinging-strike percentage (16.1), he’s still either an elite reliever or close to it. Although he’s not the Jansen who steamrolled hitters two years ago, “He doesn’t need to be the ’17 Kenley,” according to Roberts. “He needs to be the best of what he is today and going forward.” 

Dodgers Notes: Ryu, May, Jansen, Stripling, Hill, Verdugo

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Hyun-Jin Ryu has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season, and with a trip to free agency pending, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand speaks to several rival executives about how Ryu will fare on the open market this winter.  It should be noted that Ryu sidestepped a chance at free agency last offseason by accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers, preferring to remain in L.A. and aim for a better platform year than his injury-shortened 2018 campaign.  That strategy has worked like gangbusters, as Ryu has a 1.64 ERA, 1.1 BB/9 (both league bests), 7.00 K/BB rate, and 50.7% grounder rate over 148 1/3 frames in 2019, with only two minimal injured list stints for relatively minor issues.

With this in mind, Ryu’s long injury history and age (he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2020) will also certainly be factors in his next contract.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Ryu seventh in his most recent power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class, though one NL executive tells Feinsand that depending on whether some players exercise opt-out clauses or not, Ryu is “probably No. 2 if his contract ask is reasonable….This could be an interesting class to watch. It might be one of those years where teams rank guys differently based on who they like.”  Gerrit Cole is the undisputed top pitcher available this winter, but other arms like Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, or Dallas Keuchel have also seemingly generated more buzz than Ryu, recent results notwithstanding.  An AL talent evaluator thinks this could be to Ryu’s benefit, telling Feinsand that Ryu “may actually be viewed slightly lower than some in that group perceptually, and therefore, sign earlier. I can see Ryu signing ahead of them and jumping the market and actually getting a better deal. I think the other guys may wait longer, and waiting longer hasn’t always paid off.”

Here’s more on the Dodgers…

  • Dustin May is in line for another start next week, manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters, though May will also make relief appearances to get him more acclimated to working out of the bullpen.  This semi-swingman usage is being deployed since the Dodgers ultimately intend to use May as a reliever in the postseason, though also need him available to make a spot start if necessary down the stretch.  For instance, L.A. is two games into a run of 16 games in 16 days, so May’s start next week will give the regular rotation members a breather.  “When you have a person of Dustin’s head, mindset, it makes it a better bet for us to make and especially when you have the buy-in of the player….We’re going to continue to keep our options open,” Roberts said.  May has started three of his four big league appearances thus far, posting a 4.26 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 5.00 K/BB rate over 19 total innings.
  • In another case of the Dodgers making early preparations for October, the team will use Kenley Jansen roughly once per series for the remainder of the season, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes.  This means Jansen will be skipped for some save situations and pitch in some non-save situations, all in order to keep him regularly sharp rather than tether this workload to whether or not the Dodgers have a ninth-inning lead.  It’s worth wondering if this strategy could also have to do with Jansen’s somewhat shaky performance this year, as the closer has a career-high 3.70 ERA over 48 2/3 innings.  Jansen blew his sixth save chance of the season last night, and now has 26 saves in 32 chances.
  • Roberts provided DiGiovanna and other reporters with updates on some injured Dodgers players.  Ross Stripling (right biceps tendinitis) seems the closest to returning, as he tossed a 25-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday and has a two-inning simulated game coming up before he begins a rehab assignment.  Rich Hill (flexor tendon strain) has upped his long-toss throwing to 150 feet and will next start throwing off a mound.  Hill isn’t expected back until sometime in September, though his path to a return is clearer than that of Alex Verdugo, as Roberts said Verdugo is still feeling pain in his ribcage and hasn’t yet resumed baseball activities.  Verdugo has been on the IL since August 6 due to a right oblique strain, and Roberts said the outfielder won’t return to action until at least the start of September.

Closer Updates: Jansen, Giles, Kimbrel

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Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen has received the dreaded “vote of confidence” from skipper Dave Roberts, as detailed in a report from the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Following a blown save in Friday’s game against Arizona, Jansen has five blown saves in 2019–matching his combined total from 2017 and 2018. Despite the big righty’s career-high 3.83 ERA entering play Saturday, Roberts seemed generally nonplussed at the prospect of a Jansen demotion. “Do I have any concerns? No,” Roberts told Plunkett. “He’s a guy that I know for us to win 11 games in October, we need him. I know he’ll get there.”

As Plunkett points out, Jansen has responded to his 2019 struggles by altering his repertoire. Typically a flamethrower with a 90% usage rate on his cutter, Jansen has implemented a slider at an 11.3% clip in 2019–his highest rate on that offering since 2016. “Certainly throughout the early part of his career, he just overpowered the league and there was some unfamiliarity there. Now you’ve got to continue to evolve,” Roberts said.

More developments from the world of late-inning lynchpins…

  • Blue Jays hurler Ken Giles has been dealing with a balky elbow for several weeks and could end up on the injured list in the coming days. Manager Charlie Montoyo told Scott Mitchell of TSN that Giles’ arm isn’t “bouncing back” after a July cortisone shot that was intended to quell inflammation surrounding the elbow, and admitted that the team is having a “conversation” about what to do next in regard to Giles. At 49-71, the Blue Jays don’t figure to close many relevant ballgames down the season’s homestretch, but it stands to reason that Giles’ lingering injury would be of concern to a Blue Jays front office that opted not to deal the talented closer at July’s trade deadline. Across 37 innings, Giles has logged identically fantastic ERA and FIP marks of 1.95.
  • Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel hit the injured list five days ago with knee inflammation, but he could rejoin the team for this week’s upcoming series with the Phillies, per Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Kimbrel is expected to “test” his knee with a bullpen session in Philadelphia, although it is unlikely that he will be activated when first eligible on Wednesday. After Steve Cishek’s IL placement this afternoon, Cubs fans will certainly be clamoring for Kimbrel’s recovery.

Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

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