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Kenley Jansen

Braves Place Kenley Jansen On Injured List Due To Irregular Heartbeat

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The Braves announced Tuesday that closer Kenley Jansen has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to an irregular heartbeat. The move is retroactive to June 27. Right-hander Jesus Cruz has been recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s a worrisome ailment for Jansen, though this is far from the first time the 34-year-old has dealt with the issue. Jansen has thrice been placed on the injured list due to irregular heartbeats — once in 2011 and again in both 2017 and 2018. He’s had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures during his big league career in hopes of corralling the issue, though it seems he’s not yet entirely out of the woods in that regard.

The Braves’ announcement didn’t include a timetable for Jansen’s return, although his most recent IL placement for this issue, back in 2018, resulted in a minimal 10-day absence. The Braves are surely hopeful for a similarly quick return this time around, although the obvious broader hope is that, regardless of Jansen’s availability on the baseball field, he can remain in overall good health and eventually move beyond episodes of this nature entirely.

Jansen, in his first year with any organization other than the Dodgers, has been quite good. The three-time All-Star carries a 3.58 ERA through 32 2/3 innings, and secondary metrics like FIP (2.18), SIERA (2.07) and xERA (2.12) feel he’s been considerably better than that earned run average would indicate. That’s due largely to Jansen’s brilliant 36.4% strikeout rate, his strong 6.2% walk rate and his continued ability to limit hard contact better than nearly any pitcher in the league (86.5 mph average exit velocity, 28.4% hard-hit rate).

Taking Jansen’s place on the roster in the short term will be the 27-year-old Cruz, who pitched six innings of one-run ball for the Braves earlier this season. The former Cardinals minor leaguer has been similarly sharp in Gwinnett, where he’s notched a tidy 2.45 ERA with a sensational 24-to-1 K/BB ratio through 14 2/3 innings of relief.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Bryant, Marlins, Reynolds, Marte, Jansen, Chafin, Mets

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The Phillies were often speculated as a suitor for Kris Bryant this winter, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the team did indeed have interest in the former NL MVP.  However, Bryant wanted as much long-term security as possible in the form of “at least a seven-year deal,” and he landed that desired contract with his seven-year, $182MM agreement with the Rockies.  Philadelphia’s offer topped out at five years, Nightengale writes.

Given the terms, one wonders if the Phillies’ offer to Bryant was somewhat similar to the five-year, $100MM deal the club ended up giving to Nick Castellanos.  Even that deal took some additional legwork, since as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb details, the front office first had to convince owner John Middleton that adding Castellanos was worth exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time in franchise history.  Middleton has long stated that he was willing to pay the tax for a difference-making type of acquisition, and the end result is that the Phillies are now projected to sit above the $230MM threshold with an estimated $236.46MM tax number.

More from the NL East…

  • While the Marlins have long coveted Pirates All-Star Bryan Reynolds, the Fish “weren’t planning on” dealing either Max Meyer or JJ Bleday in a trade package for the outfielder, Man On Second’s Joe Frisaro writes.  Bleday was the fourth overall pick of the 2019 draft and Meyer the third pick in 2020, with both youngsters considered among the top 100 prospects in baseball, let alone just in Miami’s farm system.  Pittsburgh is known to have a big asking price in any Reynolds trade, so it isn’t surprising that the Bucs are aiming high in their demands from the Marlins or other clubs.  The Marlins do have a lot of quality minor league depth, so a Reynolds deal can’t be entirely ruled out even if the Fish don’t move either Meyer or Bleday.  Frisaro notes that the Marlins are still looking at other center field options besides Reynolds, and the club is also looking for bullpen help either in trades or available free agents.
  • Starling Marte has been sidelined by injury for the last week, though both Marte and Mets manager Buck Showalter believe the veteran outfielder will be ready for Opening Day, according to Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News and other reporters.  Marte’s injury is being described by the team as left oblique soreness, and Showalter said Marte underwent several tests to make sure there wasn’t any structural damage on Marte’s left side.  However, Marte said that an MRI revealed “something, not a broken rib, but something,” adding somewhat evasively that it was “something like” an intercostal muscle issue.
  • Kenley Jansen and Andrew Chafin each drew some interest from the Mets before signing elsewhere, SNY’s Andy Martino reports.  For all of the Mets’ moves this winter, they have been relatively quiet on the bullpen front, though Adam Ottavino was recently added on a one-year, $4MM pact.  However, quite a few notable veterans (i.e. Alex Claudio, Chasen Shreve, Felix Pena) have been added on minor league deals, and whatever younger arms aren’t in the rotation could also help out in the relief corps.

Braves Sign Kenley Jansen

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The Braves have a new closer, as they announced agreement Friday evening with Kenley Jansen on a one-year, $16MM contract. (Atlanta discloses their own contract terms). The Wasserman client had spent his entire career with the Dodgers, but he’s headed to one of the National League’s other powerhouses this season. In order to clear space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta placed reliever Jay Jackson on the 60-day injured list to a right lat strain.

A three-time All-Star and two-time Hoffman Award winner (as the National League’s top reliever), Jansen is one of the best late-game arms in recent memory. The consistently excellent closer has never posted an ERA above 3.75 in his 12-year big league career, and he’s put up an ERA below 3.00 in eight separate seasons.

Jansen remained great last season, pitching to a 2.22 mark in 69 outings. He saved 38 games and struck out a stellar 30.9% of batters faced. That wasn’t quite at the level of his peak — when Jansen was punching out more than two-fifths of opponents while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine — but it was nevertheless among the league’s best production. Among the 138 relievers with 50+ innings pitched, Jansen checked in 15th in ERA and 29th in strikeout percentage. He generated swinging strikes on 15.2% of his pitches, the 22nd-highest mark among that same group.

In addition to his ability to miss bats, Jansen has consistently excelled at limiting hard contact. Possessing an excellent cutter that stays off barrels, he consistently ranks among the league’s best in terms of checking opponents’ exit velocities and rates of solid contact. That continued last season, with opponents making hard contact (defined as a batted ball with an exit speed of 95 MPH or higher) on only 26.1% of balls in play against him. That’s nearly ten points lower than the 35.4% league average, although it’s par for the course for Jansen.

If there was anything to nitpick in Jansen’s performance, it’s that his once-stellar control got a bit wobbly. He walked 12.9% of opponents last year, his highest rate since his 2010 rookie season. That marked the fourth consecutive year in which Jansen’s walk percentage climbed relative to the year prior, and it was his first season in a decade walking more batters than the average reliever did. That didn’t prevent him from having plenty of bottom-line success, though, and the Braves aren’t locking themselves into a long-term investment.

The 34-year-old reliever signs a one-year deal, shy of MLBTR’s two-year, $26MM projection entering the offseason. The deal brings the Braves payroll to an estimated $185MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s uncharted territory for the organization, but Atlanta brass has maintained throughout the winter they’d push their spending upwards on the heels of a World Series run. Their luxury tax ledger, meanwhile, sits around $208MM — about $22MM shy of the base threshold.

Jansen’s signing is the most important step in what has been something of a bullpen makeover in Atlanta. The Braves also added Collin McHugh and Tyler Thornburg, both of whom can step into immediate work. McHugh, coming off an excellent season, seems likely to take on high-leverage innings for manager Brian Snitker. Former closer Will Smith now steps into that mix as well, as Jansen’s signing bumps him from the ninth inning. Speaking with reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) this evening, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed Smith was willing to cede the ninth inning in order to strengthen the overall roster. Smith, McHugh, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson and A.J. Minter form the core of what could be a very difficult late-innings mix to crack for opposing lineups.

That’s before even considering the presence of former All-Star closer Kirby Yates, whom the Braves signed before the lockout. The righty is still on the mend from a March 2021 Tommy John surgery, but he’s expected to factor into the mix down the stretch. Atlanta no doubt envisions playing meaningful games into September and October as they reload for what they hope will be another title run.

Along the way, they very well may come up against the Dodgers. There’d be plenty of intrigue if the clubs meet again in the playoffs, as they’ve now poached franchise icons from one another in recent days. Atlanta brass certainly didn’t allow the Dodgers’ finalization of a six-year deal with Freddie Freeman this afternoon to influence their pursuit of Jansen, but the fanbase and some in the organization probably feel some amount of satisfaction in poaching a marquee player from L.A. There was already going to be plenty of intrigue every time the two teams met this season. Jansen heading to Atlanta will only take that up another notch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays “Making Push” For Kyle Schwarber

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The Blue Jays are “making a big push” for Kyle Schwarber, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Marly Rivera of ESPN reported (on Twitter) this evening the Jays had interest in the lefty-hitting outfielder. Heyman adds that multiple teams remain in the mix but puts Toronto among the frontrunners for his services.

Toronto has been tied to a few marquee bats, as reports suggest they’re at least on the periphery of the Freddie Freeman market. Presumably, a Schwarber deal would take the Jays out of the running for the 2020 NL MVP, but he’d be a notable boon to their offense himself.

Schwarber, who turned 29 last week, is coming off a career-best season. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, he signed a $10MM deal with the Nationals. The Indiana University product hit .253/.340/.570 with 25 home runs across 303 plate appearances with Washington. That included an unreal 16-homer month of June that had made Schwarber the league’s hottest hitter before he suffered a severe hamstring strain in early July.

He spent the next six weeks on the injured list, during which time the Nationals fell out of contention. The Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a deadline deal despite his injury, with plans to have him rotate between first base and left field for the stretch run. He returned in mid-July and picked up right where he’d left off pre-injury, popping seven homers with a .291/.435/.522 line in 41 games with Boston. (The midseason trade also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer).

Between the two clubs, Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 line with 32 homers over 471 plate appearances. That production was 45 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. As he has throughout his career, Schwarber was a bit prone to strikeouts (27%), but he also drew walks at an elite 13.6% clip and posted top-of-the-scale power production. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage. It was the kind of middle-of-the-order output many expected from Schwarber when he was drafted fourth overall and ranked as one of the sport’s top offensive prospects.

The corner outfield market is robust, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto all joining Schwarber in the ranks of the unsigned. Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the top options at first base, leaving plenty of possibilities for clubs in search of an upgrade to the middle of the lineup.

In addition to their search for a big-ticket bat, the Jays have been looking for infield and bullpen help. Héctor Gómez of Z 101 reported over the weekend (on Twitter) that Toronto was looking into a reunion with versatile infielder Jonathan Villar. The switch-hitter played briefly with the Jays late in 2020 and struggled, but he bounced back with a decent .249/.322/.416 showing over 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season. The Jays could use some help at either of second or third base (with Cavan Biggio taking the other position), and Villar may be the top option remaining in free agency.

On the relief front, the Jays have checked in with closer Kenley Jansen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The market for the longtime Dodger has been fairly quiet to this point, but he’s arguably the best remaining late-game option. The typically excellent Jansen tossed 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA last season, punching out an elite 30.9% of opponents.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

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Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Seager, Jansen

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he’s yet to discuss a contract extension with the team but hopes to do so this offseason. Roberts is under contract through the 2022 campaign already, so the team doesn’t necessarily need to feel any urgency to get a new agreement worked out, although it’s common for managers in good standing with their clubs to ink deals that avoid “lame duck” status (i.e. managing through the final season of a contract with no deal in place the following year). President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells Castillo that the Dodgers “fully expect [Roberts] to be a large part of our future success.” While the Dodgers obviously won’t repeat as World Series champions, they still won 106 games during the regular season and, as Castillo profiles, dealt with a significant slate of injuries to various key players throughout the regular season and the playoffs.

Some more notes o the Dodgers…

  • Corey Seager will head into the open market for the first time in his career on the heels of a .306/.381/.545 showing across his past two seasons (147 games, 641 plate appearances, 148 wRC+). He missed two months this year after an errant fastball broke his hand, but his bat looks as good or even better than it did prior to 2018 Tommy John surgery. Seager spoke of the difficulty of facing the “unknown” that is free agency but also made clear he’d love to return to the Dodgers (video via Sportsnet L.A.). “Absolutely,” Seager replied when asked if he wants to return. “I grew up here. I’ve spent a lot of time here. I believe in what these guys do. I believe in how we go about it. Yeah, absolutely.”
  • It’s a similar story for Kenley Jansen, who hopes to be a Dodger for life, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. Jansen’s decline in 2019-20 was a notable storyline for the Dodgers, but DiGiovanna explores how Jansen made some changes to his training regimen at the suggestion of director of team performance Brandon McDaniel. Jansen’s velocity and cutter movement rebounded in 2021, and he turned in a 2.22 ERA through 69 innings of relief. That said, Jansen’s strikeout, swinging-strike and chase percentages were at or below their 2020 levels, and his walk rate jumped to 12.9 percent — his highest rate since his rookie year back in 2010. Teammates Trea Turner (who faced Jansen as an opponent in the first half) and Clayton Kershaw discuss with DiGiovanna the manner in which Jansen has evolved as a pitcher since his days with a cutter-only approach. Another multi-year figures to be out there for Jansen, but given that he’ll pitch next year at 34, it figures to be a good bit shorter than the five-year pact he signed in the 2016-17 offseason.

Dodgers To Start Buehler, Kershaw In First Two NLDS Games

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is sticking with a familiar formula for his playoff rotation, telling reporters (including Jack Harris and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw will start the first two games of the team’s NLDS matchup with the Padres.

Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May are on tap to start Games 3, 4, and 5, though the three pitchers wouldn’t necessarily be deployed in that order.  As always, the Dodgers will be flexible with their pitching arrangement during the postseason.  “There might be a situation where those guys [Urias, Gonsolin, May] are available in any of the preceding games as a side day to then make a start,” Roberts said.

It also isn’t out of the question that Buehler returns on short rest to pitch in a possible Game 5, though the first step for the Dodgers is making sure that Buehler can get through as much of Game 1 as possible.  Two separate trips to the injured list due to a blister problem limited Buehler to just 11 2/3 innings after August 21, and he tossed only four innings (73 pitches) in Game 1 of the Dodgers’ wild card series with the Brewers.

Whether Buehler could pitch longer against the Padres is still up in the air, as Roberts said he will “keep an eye on him each inning….I can’t say it’s scripted or when we’re going to deploy our guys in the pen.”  The final five innings of the Game 1 victory over Milwaukee were handled by Urias (three innings), and then an inning each from Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen, with the reliever trio holding the Brewers scoreless.

Jansen’s outing wasn’t without some shakiness, however, which left Roberts saying that Jansen is still the team’s closer, but no longer the automatic option in save situations.  “There are still going to be times that I might need him in a different inning, and he’s on-board with whatever to help us win baseball games.  It’s a title, but I think that in practice, there are certain innings and certain parts of the lineup that I think he’s the best option.”  While Jansen has a 1.97 ERA over 50 1/3 career postseason innings, he also has a few infamous meltdowns on his resume — over his last eight World Series appearances, Jansen has a loss and is only 1-for-4 in save chances.

Though the L.A. pitching staff is well rested after their two-game sweep of the Brew Crew, the Dodgers will still add some more depth, as Roberts intimated that he will add an extra pitcher to the NLDS roster.  Los Angeles deployed 15 position players and 13 pitchers on its wild card series roster, but one of those position players will be left out of the NLDS in favor of another arm, likely right-hander Dylan Floro.

Kenley Jansen Reports To Dodgers Camp; Tested Positive For COVID-19

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Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen reported to camp today—as first reported by Pedro Moura of The Athletic—rejoining his team after a positive test for COVID-19 prevented him from participating in Dodgers workouts to this point. It was previously unknown why Jansen had yet to arrive at Dodger Stadium, but he confirmed today that he indeed tested positive for the virus. Evidently, he has since passed the two tests necessary to permit him to return to action.

Jansen told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that he expects to be ready for the Dodgers’ July 23 matchup with the Giants to kick off the season. With Opening Day less than two weeks away, that seems like an ambitious goal for a pitcher who has thus far been unable to train with his team in Spring Training 2.0, but the build-up to game shape might be less steep for a bullpen pitcher like Jansen, who’s been throwing consistently during the baseball stoppage.

Should Jansen need more to time to recover, the Dodgers’ deep bullpen should give them options to deploy in the ninth inning in place of Jansen: Joe Kelly and Blake Treinen are accomplished veteran relievers who could pick up the slack for a time.

Jansen, 32, has dealt with heart issues in the past, though he’s said that those problems have not influenced his intent to play in the shortened 2020 season. Last year was arguably Jansen’s worst season since arriving in MLB in 2010. For the better part of a decade, he was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, though declining velocity has troubled him in recent years. As 2020 gets underway, we will cross our fingers for a healthy, bounce-back season from Jansen.

Kenley Jansen Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.

Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.

The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.

Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.

Andrew Friedman On Kenley Jansen

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Not long ago, it would been almost impossible to imagine anyone but Kenley Jansen serving as the Dodgers’ closer. But after an uncharacteristically pedestrian 2019 season for the long-dominant right-hander, Jansen may not be a lock for the role next year. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Monday that Jansen’s still the team’s closer as of now, but LA “will see how things play out” in regards to the job (Twitter link via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).

Whether the 32-year-old Jansen will even be a Dodger in 2020 isn’t necessarily etched in stone, as he could opt out of the remainder of his contract. In all likelihood, though, Jansen’s going to stay put. Abandoning what’s left of his deal would mean leaving two years and $38MM on the table, which would look like an ill-advised move in the wake of the season Jansen just had.

Jansen earned his current pact – a five-year, $80MM guarantee – on the heels of an otherworldly 2016 showing, and while he continued to thrive the next season, he has been closer to good than elite since 2018. At least in comparison to his past self, Jansen was fairly ordinary this year. He posted a 3.71 ERA/3.48 FIP with 33 saves on 41 tries over 63 innings, giving him a personal-high ERA and a career-worst blown saves total. While Jansen did log 11.43 strikeouts per nine against 2.29 walks – a ratio just about any pitcher would sign up for – it’s not as impressive for a hurler who regularly posted a K/9 in the 13-14 range during his halcyon days.

Jansen was a key factor for the Dodgers in past playoff runs, but that wasn’t the case this year during their first-round loss to the Nationals. He threw just 1 2/3 innings during the Dodgers’ five-game defeat, including two-thirds of a frame in the decisive matchup of the series. By then, the Dodgers were already down 7-3 after an implosion from Joe Kelly.

Even though Jansen seemingly lost some of LA’s trust in 2019, he’s still likely to return as one of the team’s top relievers next season. Jansen and the rest of the club’s bullpen faced their fair share of scrutiny throughout the campaign, though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers make a noteworthy effort to improve the unit over the winter. If the Dodgers end up in the market for a new closer, Aroldis Chapman (should he opt out of his Yankees deal) and Will Smith stand out as a couple potential free agents who could give the club an end-of-game upgrade over Jansen.

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