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Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela

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NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander.  Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic.  Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.

MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors.  Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.

More from Fenway Park…

  • Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow might be joining the Red Sox front office as the head of pitching development, as per Peter Gammons (on X).  The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (also via X) has a contradictory report, saying there has been “zero contact” between the Cubs and Red Sox involving Breslow.  A veteran of 12 MLB seasons, Breslow has been working in Chicago’s front office for the better part of five years, becoming the team’s director of pitching in October 2019 and then receiving the AGM title in 2020.  Breslow spent parts of five seasons pitching for the Red Sox and he hails from Connecticut, plus Gammons notes that Breslow and his family live in nearby Newton, Massachusetts.
  • Justin Turner told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that he hasn’t yet decided about whether or not to exercise his $13.4MM player option for the 2024 season, as his focus is still on finishing the rest of the schedule.  As to the possibility of staying with the Sox in general, “I love playing in Boston and I’ve had a great experience here so obviously, it would be fantastic if I was still here,” Turner said.  Even at age 38, Turner is still a very solid bat, hitting .278/.348/.463 with 23 homers over 600 plate appearances in his first season with the Red Sox.  It figures that the Sox would love to bring Turner back, though they might have to sign him to a new contract altogether — as Cotillo notes, the odds are high that Turner will take the $6.7MM buyout of his option and test free agency again in search of a bigger deal.
  • Kenley Jansen is back on the active roster, as the Red Sox activated the closer from the seven-day COVID-related injured list today.  (Righty Zack Weiss was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.)  Like Turner, Jansen was also a productive signing from the 2022-23 offseason, joining the Sox on a two-year/$32MM deal and delivering 29 saves and a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings in his first season in Beantown.
  • The Red Sox rank 27th of 30 teams in second base bWAR this season, as Boston’s second basemen have combined for a sub-replacement level -0.1 bWAR.  The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looks at how the Sox might address the position next year, and how perhaps the easiest solution would be to give Ceddanne Rafaela some regular time at the keystone.  The top prospect has played a few games at second base already, and while the Sox prefer to see what Rafaela’s glove can do in center field, using Rafaela at second base in at least a part-time capacity would open up center field to see if Jarren Duran can build on his promising 2023 campaign.  As for Boston’s other in-house second base options, Jennings writes that the club hasn’t yet decided on whether or not to tender Luis Urias a contract this winter, as Urias is set for at least a minimal arbitration raise on his current $4.7MM salary.  As Jennings notes, the next front office boss will probably be the one making the call on Urias, and it is possible the Sox might non-tender the infielder and then look to re-sign him at a lower price.

AL East Notes: Montas, Jansen, Bautista, Mountcastle

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The Yankees announced this morning that right-hander Frankie Montas will begin a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level this evening. Montas has not yet appeared in a professional game this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in February.

Montas joined the Yankees at the trade deadline last year in a deal that sent a package of prospects headlined by left-hander Ken Waldichuk. The deal proved to be an ill-fated one for the Yankees, as Montas made just eight starts to the tune of a 6.35 ERA with a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. With just 12 games left on the regular season calendar and New York all but eliminated from postseason contention, the window is tight for Montas to return to the big leagues this year at all, much less for a full-length start. Nonetheless, with the 30-year-old righty poised to hit the open market this November, even a brief return to the big leagues where Montas can prove his health to clubs ahead of the offseason could be valuable as he looks to join a crowded free agent class for starting pitchers.

More from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen has been on the COVID-19 injured list for the past week, but could be nearing a return. As manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Jansen is playing catch and is currently expected to rejoin the team in Texas on Wednesday, as soon as he’s eligible to return from the IL. The 35-year-old closer has had a solid season in Boston, with a 3.63 ERA and 29 saves in 44 2/3 innings of work. Chris Martin, Garrett Whitlock, and John Schreiber have handled the late innings for the Red Sox while Jansen has been out.
  • Orioles closer Felix Bautista has been on the IL since late August with a UCL injury, though the club hasn’t given up hope on the 28-year-old returning this year. That hope is still alive today, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Dan Connolly of Sportsnaut) this afternoon. Bautista threw a 20-25 pitch side session, which Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun was noted was his third consecutive day of throwing. Bautista was perhaps the most dominant reliever in the sport prior to going down with injury. In 61 innings of work this season, he’s posted a 1.48 ERA with an incredible 46.4% strikeout rate.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, Hyde told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com) that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who has been dealing with shoulder soreness in recent days, tried swinging a bat yesterday but that “it didn’t go great.” Hyde added that he still doesn’t consider Mountcastle as a candidate to hit the injured list. Mountcastle has slashed .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season. The Orioles have been relying on Ryan O’Hearn at first base in Mountcastle’s absence.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Mondesi, Mills, Weber, Belt

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The Red Sox are an even 33-33 after tonight’s win over the Yankees, and they remain 3.5 games behind the Blue Jays just to reach fourth place in the hyper-competitive AL East.  Barring a big surge over the next month, the Sox might decide to look ahead to 2024, and the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham notes that the club has a number of interesting trade chips if it did opt to sell.  Beyond the multiple players (i.e. Justin Turner, James Paxton, Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez) who could be free agents this winter, Abraham writes that the Sox could offer up more controllable options like Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin, who are both under contract for the 2024 season.

Such a decision, of course, would hinge on how the Red Sox are preparing to approach 2024, since naturally a quality closer like Jansen would be expected to play a big role on a would-be contender.  In Abraham’s view, Jansen could be “the big prize” of Boston’s likeliest trade chips, given his postseason track record and how many teams are in need of bullpen help.  The Red Sox could also see value in selling relatively high on Jansen considering that he turns 36 in September, and that his solid 3.48 ERA is undermined by a 12.8% walk rate that is among the highest of his career.  Salary could also be a factor, as Jansen is owed $16MM in 2024.

More from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox manager Alex Cora gave Abraham and other reporters some updates on injured players, but the news isn’t good for either Adalberto Mondesi or Wyatt Mills.  Mondesi is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in April 2022, and while he had been taking part in extended Spring Training, he doesn’t appear to be making any further progress or getting any closer to minor league games.  As for Mills, the right-hander had a setback in his recovery from elbow inflammation that sidelined him during Spring Training.  Both Mondesi and Mills (acquired from the Royals in separate transactions during the offseason) are on the 60-day injured list and have yet to play in 2023.
  • Ryan Weber is leaning towards a PRP shot and a non-surgical rehab plan to help fix his UCL strain, the Yankees reliever told Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News.  Tommy John surgery might yet be a possibility, but Weber wants to investigate his options in order to try and avoid such a long-term rehab.  Weber was placed on the 15-day injured list last week and was immediately shifted to the 60-day IL, so he won’t be back until early August at the absolute earliest.
  • Brandon Belt left Saturday’s game due to tightness in his left hamstring, and wasn’t part of the Blue Jays’ 7-6 win over the Twins today.  Following Sunday’s game, Jays manager John Schneider told MLB.com and other media that Belt’s MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Belt will remain day-to-day.  Since Toronto doesn’t play on Monday, the hope is that another day off will allow Belt to return to the lineup for the start of a big series with the Orioles on Tuesday.  Belt is hitting .263/.378/.434 with four home runs over 180 plate appearances in his first season with the Jays, as after a very slow start, Belt has quietly been one of baseball’s hotter hitters over the past month.

AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Red Sox

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Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently dug into the factors behind the Rays’ decision to demote top pitching prospect Taj Bradley to Triple-A last week. Topkin notes that Bradley’s call to the majors came primarily due to the young right-hander being on full rest when starters were needed to sub in for Zach Eflin and Jeffrey Springs. With Eflin back in action and bulk arms Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming joining him, lefty Shane McClanahan and right-hander Drew Rasmussen as rotation options, Bradley was no longer needed to fill out the rotation in Tampa.

Despite Bradley’s strong trio of starts in the big leagues, where he posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.65 FIP over 15 1/3 innings of work, that left the Rays free to send Bradley back to the minors. Topkin highlights Bradley’s need to adjust to pitching every fifth day and maintain his velocity throughout the season as major factors in the decision, though he also notes that the Rays are hoping to avoid a situation similar to the one the Nationals had with Stephen Strasburg in 2012. That season, the club made the difficult decision to shut down their young ace ahead of the playoffs despite a 3.16 ERA in 28 starts, as the right-hander was on an innings limit following Tommy John surgery. Topkin notes that Bradley through 133 1/3 innings in 2022, and may be limited to 160 innings this season.

One other potential factor Topkin mentions is service time. By optioning Bradley, the Rays have assured themselves an additional season of team control over the 22-year-old, who now figures to be a free agent for the first time during the 2029-2030 offseason. That, of course, could change if Bradley finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting this season, as he would be awarded a full year of service time in that case.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles today optioned infielder Joey Ortiz to Triple-A, recalling outfielder Kyle Stowers, per a team announcement. Ortiz, who was promoted to the big league club just this past Thursday, appeared in just three games for the Orioles during his first big league cup of coffee, recording two hits and striking out once in 8 at-bats. Stowers, meanwhile, impressed with a .253/.306/.418 slash line in 34 games at the big league level last season but did not record a hit in six at-bats with the big league club prior to being optioned to Triple-A during the second week of the season.
  • The Red Sox expect to be without their closer for the next few days, as veteran Kenley Jansen noted to reporters (including Alex Speier of The Boston Globe) that he will be unavailable until at least Tuesday after pitching through back spasms in last night’s blown save against the Guardians. John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski have worked the late innings alongside Jansen in the early going this season, but with Chris Martin likely coming off the injured list today, the 36-year-old veteran may get the ninth inning while Jansen is down.

Red Sox Likely To Activate Chris Martin From 15-Day IL On Sunday

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Chris Martin looks to be on the verge of a return to the Red Sox bullpen, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) that the reliever will likely be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to Sunday’s game with the Guardians.  The corresponding move has already been made, as the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams reports that right-hander Kaleb Ort has been optioned to Triple-A.

The Sox retroactively placed Martin on the 15-day IL back on April 13, so he’ll return to the field in just slightly more than the minimum 15 days.  Right shoulder inflammation sidelined Martin, but an MRI revealed no structure damage, and it seems as though Martin’s discomfort subsided in relatively quick fashion.  It’s possible he might have been back exactly after 15 days, were it not for a stomach bug that delayed his appearance in a Triple-A rehab outing.  Martin finally took the hill on Friday, and assuming that he doesn’t report any setbacks prior to tomorrow’s game, the Red Sox will reinstate the veteran righty.

Martin signed a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Sox in December, after posting strong numbers with four different teams (the Rangers, Braves, Cubs, and Dodger) from 2019-22.  With a 2.57 ERA over his first seven innings with Boston, Martin looked to be continuing that trend, though he had an uncharacteristically low two strikeouts over those seven frames.

Ort has struggled to a 7.30 ERA over 12 1/3 relief innings this season, including a rough performance on April 25 that saw him allow five runs (four earned) over just one-third of an inning against the Orioles.  Inserting Martin in Ort’s place will certainly help Boston’s relief corps, and Martin’s experience in high-leverage situations will be particularly useful if there’s any uncertainty over Kenley Jansen’s health status.  Jansen battled some back stiffness during today’s game, as the closer blew his first save of the season and labored through 29 pitches during his inning of work.

Red Sox Designate Hoy Park For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated infielder Hoy Park for assignment, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The move is in correspondence with the signing of reliever Kenley Jansen, which the Sox are making official today.

Park, 27 in April, spent most of his career in the Yankees organization before going to the Pirates in 2021 as part of the Clay Holmes trade. Between the two clubs, he’s gotten into 68 MLB contests, but with a tepid .201/.291/.346 batting line to show for it. That amounts to a wRC+ of 74, indicating he’s been 26% below league average.

He has occasionally had better showings with the bat, particularly a 48-game showing at Triple-A with the Yankees prior to the trade. In that stretch, he hit .327/.475/.567 for a wRC+ of 180. Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep that going after the deal. In 89 Triple-A games in 2022, he hit .225/.332/.354, 86 wRC+.

Despite that inconsistent work at the plate, Park at least provides speed and defensive versatility. He has regularly put up double-digit steals in the minors and has played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as all three outfield slots. There was enough intrigue from the Red Sox to acquire him from the Pirates in November, sending prospect Inmer Lobo the other way, but they have now designated him for assignment just three weeks later. They will have one week to try to work out a trade or pass him through waivers. Park has previously been outrighted in his career, meaning he would have the right to reject another outright assignment and elect free agency if he clears waivers.

Red Sox Sign Kenley Jansen

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Dec. 13: The Sox have made it official, announcing the signing. Infielder Hoy Park was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Dec. 7, 11:03am: Jansen will be paid an even $16MM in each season of the contract, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

9:35am: The Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $32MM contract with free-agent right-hander Kenley Jansen, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Wasserman client becomes the third free-agent reliever to sign in Boston this winter, joining righty Chris Martin and lefty Joely Rodriguez in what’s becoming a rapidly overhauled bullpen.

"<strongChange was necessary in the Boston ’pen, however, as Red Sox relievers logged the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and ninth-worst FIP (4.13) — due in no small part to combining for the fifth-highest walk rate of any relief corps in MLB. The ninth inning, in particular, was a revolving door for the Sox in 2022. Nine different relievers recorded saves, and righties John Schreiber, Tanner Houck and Matt Barnes finished the season in a three-way tie for the team lead, at eight apiece.

Jansen, nine saves away from 400 in his illustrious career, should bring some much-needed stability to the situation. The 35-year-old’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its 2014 peak, but he’s managed to find plenty of success even as his deadly cutter has faded from an average of nearly 95 mph to a 92.2 mph average with the Braves in 2022.

It was just a one-year stay in Atlanta for Jansen, who’d spent the prior 12 seasons of his big league career with the Dodgers, but the results were strong. Jansen saved 41 games and pitched to a 3.38 ERA with even better secondary marks: a 32.7% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a 2.76 SIERA, to name a few. That walk rate, in particular, marked a pronounced rebound from an uncharacteristic spike to 12.9% in 2021, which now looks more like an anomaly than the start of a worrying trend.

Jansen’s 2022 season wasn’t without its red flags. Last season’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate was a career-low by a full two percentage points and clocked in 3.9 percentage points south of his 15.3% career mark. He also required a stint on the injured list due to an irregular heartbeat for the fourth time in his career. Jansen has had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures in hopes of finally putting the heart issues behind him. While it seems he’s not entirely clear of the longstanding issue, it’s also encouraging that he returned in the minimum 15 days this time around.

The 2022 season marked Jansen’s 13th season in the Majors, all of which have resulted in an ERA of 3.71 or lower (including nine sub-3.00 campaigns and four sub-2.00 seasons). Despite the brief absence due to his heartbeat issue, the otherwise-durable Jansen topped 60 innings in nine of the past ten full, 162-game seasons. It’s fair to say that he’s gone from virtually unbeatable in his 20s to “merely” excellent in his 30s, but Jansen still possesses a 3.08 ERA in 292 innings since turning 30.

A deepened relief corps with newly signed veterans allows the Red Sox to more confidently give some key young arms a look in the rotation. Garrett Whitlock has oscillated between starting and relieving, but the organization plans to use him as a starter in 2023, GM Brian O’Halloran said earlier in the offseason. Fellow righty Tanner Houck could also get a look in the rotation, O’Halloran added, though no formal decision has been announced on that front. In all likelihood, his role will depend on the manner in which the Sox are able to either bolster the starting rotation and/or further deepen the bullpen.

The Red Sox paid the luxury tax by a narrow margin in 2023, but with the potential departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Matt Strahm (who’s reportedly nearing a deal with the Phillies), Boston’s current luxury projection is nearly $60MM shy of the first-tier tax threshold — even including the salaries of newcomers Jansen, Martin and Rodriguez. Boston had more money coming off the books than nearly any team in the sport this winter, and as things stand, they’re more than $70MM from their franchise record for Opening Day payroll.

In that respect, the deluge of near-misses the Sox have had in free agency thus far are extra discouraging. The Red Sox made a three-year offer to Jose Abreu before he signed in Houston, for instance, and they reportedly believed they were close to a three-year, $40MM deal with righty Zach Eflin before he the Florida native the same contract with his home-state Rays. Boston has also reportedly made offers to Andrew Heaney and Tommy Kahnle before they agreed to deals with the Rangers and Yankees, respectively, and the Sox had talks with the Brewers about Kolten Wong before he was traded to the Mariners.

Frustrating as it must be for both the front office and fan base to see so many pursuits come up empty-handed, the Sox are still sporting as much financial firepower as any team on the market. Bringing Jansen into the fold gives the Sox a strong end-of-the-game presence, as he can join Martin and Schreiber in handling high-leverage spots next season. There’s still work to be done in the rotation and in the lineup, and Boston continues to pursue a reunion with Bogaerts as well as a possible extension with third baseman Rafael Devers. Jansen checks one notable item off chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s to-do list, but expect plenty of additional activity from the Sox as they look to leverage their considerable financial resources.

Giants Interested In Kenley Jansen

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Kenley Jansen has drawn interest from the Giants, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The veteran reliever is a free agent for the second straight winter, after signing a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves last offseason.

There is plenty of familiarity between Jansen and the Giants, and not only because San Francisco spent 12 seasons in direct competition with the closer back when Jansen pitched with the Dodgers.  As Morosi notes, both Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were also working for Los Angeles back when Jansen wore the Dodger Blue.

The Giants have been active in retooling a bullpen that was pretty uninspiring in 2022, as the team has already parted ways with Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, Alex Young, and Mauricio Llovera.  Signing Jansen would be a bold way of upgrading the relief mix, as Kapler could alternate between Jansen and incumbent closer Camilo Doval for save situations.  The Giants have preferred a little ninth-inning flexibility during Kapler’s three years as manager, though Jake McGee received the bulk of save opportunities in 2021 and Doval the majority of chances in 2022.  McGee’s early-season struggles and eventual release paved the way for Doval to become more or less the full-time closer this past season, and the Giants might prefer to return Doval to a high-leverage role behind an established closer.

Jansen is entering his age-36 season, but continued to pitch well in recording an NL-best 41 saves with Atlanta last season.  The right-hander had a 3.38 ERA and his usual set of excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and fastball spin rates, though there were a few question marks.  Jansen’s barrel rate was below-average for the first time since 2018, and for the third straight season, he had a subpar walk rate.  On the plus side, Jansen’s 8.5% walk rate at least represented an improvement from an ugly 12.9% mark in 2021 that sat near the bottom of the league.

Between that walk rate, Jansen’s age, and perhaps just the limited timeframe of the lockout-shortened offseason, Jansen could only find a one-year contract last winter.  However, his strong performance with the Braves has MLBTR projecting him for a two-year, $26MM contract this winter.

Any number of teams with more glaring needs at closer than San Francisco could be more willing to bid on Jansen’s services, yet it is quite possible he would have interest in a return to the NL West and a reunion with Zaidi and Kapler.  The Giants are also planning to return to contention, and while splurging on a reliever isn’t usually Zaidi’s preferred strategy, the team has plenty of available payroll space and is expected to be quite aggressive in the free agent market.

Braves Notes: Dansby Swanson, Charlie Morton, Kenley Jansen

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After following up their underdog 2021 Cinderella World Series win with an improved 101-win season, the Braves have been eliminated from the 2022 postseason by the Phillies. With their 2022 season in the rearview mirror, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will be hard at work improving the already impressive Braves core.

Perhaps the most important question facing the Braves as they head into the offseason is their hole at shortstop. Atlanta native Dansby Swanson has been the Braves’ starting shortstop since 2016, and will be a free agent for the first this offseason after receiving a $10MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Braves had opened extension talks with Swanson in mid-August, but there has yet to be a tangible result.

Swanson, who is coming off his fourth consecutive strong season, slashed .277/.329/.447 while posting the highest Outs Above Average (20) among qualified shortstops en route to his first All-Star appearance. He joins Trea Turner, and, if they exercise their opt-outs, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as the top options at short.

When asked about his thoughts on free agency and potentially leaving the Braves, Swanson responded that free agency is “the last thing on my mind,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, Anthopoulos confirmed in a press conference earlier today that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done, but he didn’t provide specific figures, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The Braves, who have become notorious in recent seasons for signing players in the early stage of their career to ‘team-friendly’ contracts (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley), currently have roughly $186MM committed to the 2023 season, not factoring in arbitration, per Roster Resource. However, out of arbitration-eligible players, only starter Max Fried is predicted to significantly impact the Braves’ payroll, with other arbitration-eligible players expected to earn under $3MM if they are tendered contracts.

Importantly, in the 2021 offseason, the Braves reportedly offered long-time first baseman Freddie Freeman a five-year contract in the $135MM-$140MM range. When talks stalled, the Braves moved to acquire Matt Olson from the Athletics, signing him to an eight-year, $168MM contract. Freeman then went on to sign with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162MM contract.

The Braves, potentially, already have Swanson’s replacement in Vaughn Grissom, who posted a strong .291/.353/.440 line in 151 at-bats after being called up in mid-August. Grissom has primarily played second in his brief Major League career but came up through the Minors as a shortstop. If Swanson is re-signed, Grissom may be forced to transition to the outfield or work as a utility player with Riley and Albies patrolling the infield.

Transitioning to the mound, starter Charlie Morton was forced to exit yesterday’s game in the third inning after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow. Morton initially stayed in the game and completed the inning but was pulled by manager Brian Snitker after Snitker watched Morton warm up prior to the third inning. During an in-game interview, Snitker announced that x-rays showed no structural damage in Morton’s elbow, and that Morton wanted to try and continue to pitch, per Mike Axisa of CBS.

Morton had pitched two innings prior to leaving the game, giving up four hits and three runs, all on a Brandon Marsh homer. Morton, who turns 39 in November was a steady force in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 172 innings (31 starts) with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate. His strong performance led to a one-year, $20MM contract extension for the 2023 season, with a $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Reliever Kenley Jansen is entering free agency, but Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Braves would “love to have him back,” per Toscano. After leaving the Dodgers in free agency to join the Braves on a one-year, $16MM contract, Jansen led the National League in saves with 41, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with a lofty 32.7% strikeout rate. However, Jansen’s HardHit percentage spiked from 26.1% in 2021 to 32.5% in 2022, and his ground ball rate dropped from 37.3% to 29.1%, the second-lowest mark of his career.

If the Braves and Jansen are unable to come to an agreement, they likely have his successor in Raisel Iglesias who was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez. Since joining Atlanta, Iglesias has allowed only one run in 26 1/3 innings, resulting in a minuscule 0.32 ERA. These strong numbers are backed by a high 30.0% strikeout rate, a low 5.0% walk rate, and a solid 40.6% ground ball rate.

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