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Mariners Designate Ken Giles For Assignment

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The Mariners announced they’ve designated reliever Ken Giles for assignment. The move drops Seattle’s 40-man roster tally to 38.

It’s a surprising development, as the M’s didn’t have a pressing need for a spot on the 40-man roster. Giles also hadn’t been occupying a spot on the active roster, as he’s spent the past week and a half on a minor league rehab assignment while working his way back from shoulder tightness. The right-hander has tossed two scoreless innings with Triple-A Tacoma this week, but the organization apparently wasn’t bullish about his chances of fulfilling a key role in the bullpen down the stretch.

The move more or less closes the books on a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as the club had hoped. The M’s signed Giles to a $7MM guarantee over the 2020-21 offseason. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery the previous October, but the organization agreed to pay him $1.5MM while rehabbing from the injury last year. In exchange, they got a potentially elite reliever who’d posted a 1.87 ERA while striking out almost 40% of opponents over 53 innings in 2019. The deal came with a 2022 salary of just $5MM, which would be massive bargain if Giles recaptured his pre-surgery form, along with a $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season.

Giles wound up making just five MLB appearances within the course of that deal. He missed all of last season, as expected. While the hope had been he’d been ready to go for Opening Day this year, he suffered a finger injury in Spring Training that cost him more than two months. Giles made his Mariners debut on June 21 and spent a little more than two weeks on the active roster. He worked 4 1/3 scoreless frames, allowing just one hit but walking four batters against six strikeouts. In that brief look, Giles’ fastball averaged 94.8 MPH and his slider checked in at 84.1 MPH. That’s solid velocity, but down from the respective 96.9 MPH and 86.4 MPH averages from his 2019 work.

After five outings, Giles went down with the shoulder issue from which he’s been trying to work his way back. Between the diminished velocity and the shoulder tightness, the Mariners decided to move on from the 31-year-old.

The trade deadline has already passed, so Seattle will have to place Giles on outright or release waivers in the coming days. There’s no real difference between the two in this case, as he has well over five years of major league service time. That gives him the right to refuse a minor league assignment while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary even if he clears waivers. The league’s 29 other teams will have an opportunity to add Giles for the stretch run. If they all pass, he’s almost certain to test free agency.

Any team that claims Giles would be responsible for the remainder of this year’s salary (around $1.5MM). A claiming team would get the right to the club option, but they’d also be on the hook for the $500K buyout if they declined the option. Given Giles’ lack of recent experience, it seems likely he’ll go unclaimed on waivers, although that’d be a more than reasonable price to pay if another team thought he could recapture something like his 2019 form.

If Giles clears waivers and hits free agency, the Mariners would remain on the hook for essentially all of that tab. They’d have to pay the buyout on next year’s option as well as all of his remaining 2022 salary, except for the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for any time he spends on another team’s MLB roster (which would be paid by the signing club). Should Giles go unclaimed and sign elsewhere, he’d be a free agent after this season; the ’23 team option would not carry over to another team unless he’s claimed off waivers.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Mariners Announce Six Roster Moves

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Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) about a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game with the Blue Jays, including catcher Luis Torrens being activated from the 10-day injured list.  Torrens joins minor league callups Matt Brash and Matt Festa as new faces on Seattle’s roster, while right-hander Ken Giles was placed on the 15-day IL due to shoulder inflammation, catcher Andrew Knapp was designated for assignment, and right-hander Erik Swanson was placed on the paternity list.

Left shoulder inflammation sent Torrens to the IL back on June 27, so he’ll return after missing only just beyond the 10-day minimum.  The Mariners were hoping Torrens’ good numbers in 2021 meant he was ready to take a step forward as a part-time DH and catcher this season, but he has struggled to a .222/.280/.241 slash line over 118 plate appearances.  Cal Raleigh has started to emerge as a solid regular starter behind the plate, and Tom Murphy is gone for the season due to shoulder surgery, so there would seemingly be room for Torrens to remain as the backup catcher for the remainder of the year.

Seattle selected Knapp’s contract when Torrens hit the injured list, and Knapp has appeared in two games in a Mariners uniform.  Due to Knapp’s service time and the fact that he has been outrighted off a 40-man roster in the past, he has the freedom to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate — Knapp already chose free agency when the Pirates DFA’ed him in May, which paved the way for Knapp to sign with the Mariners.  It remains to be seen if Knapp will become a free agent again, or if he’ll choose to remain at Triple-A Tacoma (assuming he clears DFA waivers) as a depth option.

After missing all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, Giles then suffered a strained tendon in his right middle finger that delayed his M’s debut until June 21.  The veteran reliever has allowed no runs and only one hit over 4 1/3 innings of work, albeit with four walks in that small sample size.  Unfortunately for Giles, he’ll now be sidelined again with this latest injury.

Brash and Festa will look to fill the holes in Seattle’s bullpen, and Brash is making his return to the big leagues in a new relief role.  Beginning the year as a starting pitcher, the former top-100 prospect posted a 7.65 ERA over five starts and 20 innings, recording almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19).  The Mariners made the aggressive decision to promote Brash to the majors without any time spent at Triple-A, so Brash got his first taste of the top minor league level when the M’s demoted him in May and then converted him to relief pitching.

The results have thus far been impressive.  Over his last 17 innings, Brash has posted a 1.59 ERA, a whopping 37.9% strikeout rate, and only a 7.57% walk rate.  The hard-throwing Brash has the stuff to be a dominant reliever on paper, should he keep his past control problems in check.

Mariners Designate Sergio Romo, Roenis Elias For Assignment

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The Mariners announced four roster moves Monday, reinstating righty Ken Giles from the 60-day injured list and recalling infielder Kevin Padlo from Triple-A Tacoma. In order to create roster space, right-hander Sergio Romo and lefty Roenis Elias were designated for assignment.

Romo, signed to a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason after it was learned that Casey Sadler required season-ending shoulder surgery, was sharp through his first month as a Mariner but has seen the wheels come off in dramatic fashion. The 39-year-old sidearmer yielded just one run through his first eight innings before the Orioles tattooed him for five runs in two-third of an inning back on June 1.

That marked the beginning of a monumental meltdown that has seen the three-time World Series champion and former All-Star serve up a dozen runs in his past 6 1/3 frames. Romo has allowed runs in five of his past nine appearances, giving up multiple runs in an outing four times during that calamitous stretch.

Given the extent of those struggles and the fact that he’s on a guaranteed salary (albeit a fairly modest one), Romo is quite likely to go unclaimed on waivers and become a free agent. Any team that wants to speculate on helping him right the ship would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors at that point. Romo hasn’t experienced a velocity drop — he’s still sitting at 85.6 mph with his sinker and in the 77-78 range with his signature slider — and is still inducing chases off the plate at a huge 37.8% clip. Given that context and his broader track record, he ought to have another opportunity out there — particularly if he’s willing to take a minor league deal somewhere.

As for the 33-year-old Elias, he’s pitched far better with the Mariners in 2022, albeit in a smaller sample of 7 2/3 innings. During that time, the veteran lefty has fanned six of 33 opponents (18.2%) while walking three (9.1%) and inducing grounders at a robust 50% clip. That marks Elias’ first big league action since the 2019 season, as he was sidelined for much of the 2020-21 seasons due to arm injuries — culminating in Tommy John surgery last March.

Elias has been similarly solid in Triple-A this year, notching a 3.63 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate against a sharp 6.8% walk rate and a 44.6% grounder rate in 17 1/3 innings. It’s possible he’ll hold some appeal to bullpen-hungry clubs, particularly those in need of a lefty. In 395 2/3 innings at the MLB level, Elias has a 3.96 ERA — although that mark is at 3.30 dating back to a 2017 move to the bullpen.

Giles, 31, will be activated for his team debut. Signed to a two-year, $7MM contract knowing he’d miss the first year of the deal recovering from 2020 Tommy John surgery, Giles brings a a triple-digit heater and 115 career saves to the Seattle bullpen. His minor league rehab assignment, however, was grisly. The former Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays closer logged 7 1/3 innings between High-A and Triple-A but was shellacked for 16 runs (11 earned) on 15 hits and eight walks in that time. Giles also served up four long balls in that stretch.

Some rust after a long layoff is to be expected, but those minor league struggles are nevertheless eye-opening. However, it’s worth noting that in addition to that 2020 Tommy John procedure, Giles suffered a strained tendon in his pitching hand back in Spring Training, which sent him back to the IL for the first two-plus months of the season.

At his best, Giles has shown the ability to be one of the game’s very best relievers. He tallied 53 innings of 1.87 ERA ball as recently as 2019 with Toronto, striking out 40% of his opponents along the way. And in 351 career innings, Giles boasts a 2.74 ERA with a huge 33.3% strikeout rate against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. Time will tell which version of the righty the Mariners are getting, but if he’s back to form, Giles could either be a key bullpen piece down the stretch or, if the Mariners continue to struggle, an appealing trade chip in six weeks’ time.

Rehab Notes: Adames, Jimenez, Giles

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Willy Adames is on his way to begin a rehab assignment, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The Brewers shortstop has been out since May 16th with a high ankle sprain, and it’ll take a couple of rehab starts before he’s ready to rejoin the club. He won’t join the team in Chicago for their series against the Cubs, but he could be ready by Thursday, when the Brewers come home to face the Padres. Adames, 26, has been a key piece for the Brewers since coming over from Tampa Bay. While he’s been out, it’s been Luis Urias sliding over from his regular spot at the hot corner, while Jace Peterson and Mike Brosseau have worked out a platoon at third. In other recovery news…

  • Eloy Jimenez got just two at-bats in his first rehab assignment before leaving the game with right leg soreness. The White Sox slugger is day-to-day, per the team. Jimenez was seemingly making a quick recovery from a torn right hamstring, but the good vibes may have been too good to be true. Jimenez has been out for only a month for an injury that was projected to require a six-to-eight week layoff.
  • Ken Giles began his rehab assignment in Tacoma today, per the Rainiers Director of Media Relations Paul Braverman (via Twitter). The Mariners bullpen could use a little help. Seattle’s relief crew ranks 24th in the Majors by ERA and 19th by FIP, though they haven’t been overworked, currently 26th in terms of their innings workload. The former closer will be a question mark until proven otherwise, however, having made just four appearances over the past two seasons.

Mariners Promote George Kirby, Place Ken Giles On 60-Day IL

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May 8: The Mariners have announced the selection of Kirby’s contract, with right-hander Riley O’Brien being optioned to create space on the active roster. To make room on the 40-man, Ken Giles was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Giles has been working his way back from October 2020 Tommy John surgery. Although it was initially hoped he would be ready for Opening Day, a strained tendon in his right middle finger set Giles back significantly during Spring Training. Based on this IL placement, it seems the club isn’t expected him to join the big league club until mid-June at the earliest.

May 7, 3:25PM: Kirby will start Sunday’s game against the Rays, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link).

12:54PM: The Mariners are calling up George Kirby, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweeted earlier this afternoon that Kirby had been scratched from his scheduled start with Double-A Arkansas.

Whenever Kirby first takes the ball, he’ll be making his major league debut. The 20th overall pick in the 2019 draft out of Elon University, the right-hander quickly blossomed into one of the game’s top young arms. Regarded as a polished strike-thrower with solid but not elite stuff and as an amateur prospect, Kirby has taken his raw stuff to new heights as a professional. After working with a 91-95 MPH fastball in college, he’s pushed that velocity to the 95-99 MPH range in the minors.

That improved arm speed hasn’t come at the expense of the New York native’s pristine control. Baseball America, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN all credited Kirby with possible plus-plus command (a 70 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale) over this past offseason. He’s among the best locaters in the minor leagues, and his combination of velocity and feel for pitching made him one of the sport’s most highly-regarded prospects.

BA, FanGraphs, ESPN and Keith Law of the Athletic all slotted Kirby among the game’s top 50 overall prospects heading into the season. Baseball America was the most bullish of the group, ranking him 12th overall and the #3 pitcher. Evaluators were a bit divided about the quality of his secondary offerings; most suggested each of his slider, curveball and changeup were around average, but BA graded his upper-80s slider as a plus pitch. Not coincidentally, BA suggested he could have top-of-the-rotation upside, while each of FanGraphs, ESPN, and The Athletic pegged him as more of a mid-rotation type.

Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and some missed time last year due to shoulder soreness, Kirby only has 115 1/3 pro innings under his belt. He has shined in that time, though, with the results to match the strong visual evaluations. Kirby owns an ERA between 2.30 and 2.40 at all three of his stops, including a 2.31 mark over 50 2/3 Double-A innings. He has punched out a strong 29.6% of batters faced at that level against a tiny 5.9% walk rate.

Kirby will take the rotation spot of another top prospect. Matt Brash was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma and converted to relief (at least temporarily) after struggling to throw strikes over his first five MLB starts. Kirby doesn’t figure to have the same control problems out of the gate, but Brash’s initial difficulties are a reminder that even elite prospects often scuffle in their first taste of the big leagues. There’s uncertainty with any rookie, and Kirby is headed to the majors without so much as a single Triple-A inning under his belt.

Still, the Mariners wouldn’t have turned to Kirby if they weren’t bullish on his chances of being immediately effective. Seattle is off to a disappointing 12-15 start, but they’re seeking to contend for a playoff spot this season. If Kirby can solidify the back end of the rotation right out of the gate, that’d go a long way towards hanging around in the American League. The M’s rotation has been a mixed bag in the early going. Logan Gilbert has been excellent. Chris Flexen has been effective, while Marco Gonzales and offseason signee Robbie Ray have underwhelmed. The latter two players had a lot of pre-2022 success, though, giving the M’s reason to anticipate better results over the coming months.

Enough time has passed that Kirby won’t reach a full year of service in 2022 even if his promotion proves permanent, positioning him to reach free agency after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. If he sticks in the majors from here on out, he’d be a virtual lock to reach arbitration heading into 2025 as a Super Two qualifier. Future optional assignments could impact that service trajectory, of course. Kirby is not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mariners will need to make another move to accommodate his official selection.

AL West Notes: Ohtani, Angels, Syndergaard, Altuve, Carpenter, Story, Giles

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Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani was removed from today’s game due to right groin tightness, as he suffered the injury while trying to beat out a double play during the seventh inning.  Jack Mayfield pinch-hit for Ohtani in the ninth inning, when the DH spot was next up at the plate.  Ohtani told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other reporters that it was something of a precautionary removal and that he intended to play tomorrow, though Angels manager Joe Maddon took a more wait-and-see approach.

Naturally, any injury to Ohtani impacts the Angels on two fronts, as he is also scheduled to start Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox.  With Los Angeles optioning Jose Suarez to Triple-A today, it could provide an opportunity for Jaime Barria or Kenny Rosenberg to pick up a spot in the Halos’ six-man rotation.

The Angels at least know who will be starting Tuesday’s series opener, as Maddon said that Noah Syndergaard will take the ball.  Syndergaard was scratched from a planned start last Friday due to illness, but it appears as though the right-hander is back in good health, and he tossed a bullpen session today with no issues.

More from around the AL West…

  • Jose Altuve is on pace to be activated from the 10-day injured list on Monday when the Astros begin a home series against the Mariners, Astros GM James Click told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome).  A left hamstring strain sent Altuve to the IL on April 20, though the strain wasn’t thought to be serious at the time, and Altuve will indeed return only slightly beyond the minimum 10 days.  The seven-time All-Star has yet to get rolling this season, hitting only .167/.268/.250 over his first 41 plate appearances.
  • Matt Carpenter was one of several veterans signed to minor league contracts who had the ability to opt out of their deals today, but Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that Carpenter will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the Rangers organization.  It isn’t surprising that Carpenter (a Texas native) elected to stay put, as he already passed on another opt-out opportunity when the Rangers sent him to the minors at the end of Spring Training, and Carpenter said anyway that he needed more time to ramp up and adjust to his overhauled swing.  The former Cardinals standout has performed decently well at Triple-A Round Rock, hitting .239/.327/.457 with two home runs in 52 PA.
  • Both the Rangers and Mariners were linked to Trevor Story’s market prior to the lockout, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both AL West rivals offered Story a contract similar to the six-year, $140MM deal that the free agent eventually signed with the Red Sox in March.  At that earlier date in the offseason, Story’s reps countered with a much larger contract demands, leading both Texas and Seattle to go in different directions with their lineup plans.  The Rangers instead splurged on both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Mariners (who intended to use Story as a second baseman) acquired Adam Frazier from the Padres, and then added Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the position player side in another trade with the Reds following the lockout.  Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that Story has changed his representation since signing with Boston, and is now a client of the Wasserman Agency.
  • Mariners reliever Ken Giles is still three or four weeks away from playing in any games, though he has started a throwing program, The Athletic’s Corey Brock reports.  Giles underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020 and was aiming to return by Opening Day, though a strained tendon in his right middle finger set Giles back significantly during Spring Training.  As such, the veteran right-hander has had to more or less restart his ramp-up activities.  Still, Giles is on pace to be an option for the M’s bullpen come June, and he could be an impact addition if Giles is able to recapture some of his past form, as the righty has at times looked like one of the best relievers in baseball during his seven MLB seasons.

Ken Giles To Open Season On Injured List

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Mariners reliever Ken Giles will be out a few weeks due to a tendon injury in the middle finger of his throwing hand, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Corey Brock of the Athletic). Needless to say, he won’t be ready for next Thursday’s Opening Day.

The injury will delay Giles’ team debut for a bit longer. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery while a member of the Blue Jays in October 2020. The M’s signed him to a two-year guarantee the following offseason knowing he wouldn’t be available during the 2021 campaign. The backloaded contract will pay Giles $5MM this season, a bargain price if he can rediscover his pre-injury form. (The deal also contains a $9.5MM club option for 2023).

Giles was rocked in four appearances with the Jays in 2020 before he went under the knife. The New Mexico native never appeared healthy in that minimal look, though, as his average fastball velocity had dropped more than two miles per hour relative to the prior season. It’s probably fair to look past that showing, and Giles was nothing short of dominant during the previous campaign.

In 2019, the former 7th-round draft pick worked 53 innings of 1.87 ERA ball for the Jays. Giles averaged 97 MPH on his heater and fanned an elite 39.9% of opposing hitters. He saved 23 games that season, his third consecutive year locking down 20+ contests. Like most relievers, Giles saw his production fluctuate a bit season-to-season, but he posted an ERA of 2.30 or lower in four of his first six MLB seasons.

If he can regain anything near that form post-surgery, Giles has the potential to be a key late-inning arms. The Mariners surprisingly had one of the league’s best bullpens last year, a big reason they won 90 games. Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo and Drew Steckenrider offer Servais an excellent trio of end-of-game options, but Seattle will be without Giles for at least the first few weeks of the season. The M’s also lost Casey Sadler, who was one of their best relievers in 2021, for the entire season to shoulder surgery.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Mariners Select Drew Steckenrider

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7:06 pm: The Mariners officially selected Steckenrider’s contract (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Right-hander Ken Giles was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. The veteran reliever will miss most or all of the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall.

4:10 pm: Right-hander Drew Steckenrider has earned a spot in the Mariners’ season-opening bullpen, per Corey Brock of The Athletic. Steckenrider is not on the Mariners’ 40-man roster, which is at capacity, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move in order to add him.

An eighth-round pick of the Marlins in 2012, Steckenrider made his debut with the team in 2017 and thrived. He threw 34 2/3 innings of 2.34 ERA/3.04 SIERA ball that year, struck out just under 36 percent of batters and averaged 95.3 mph on his fastball. Steckenrider continued to put up useful numbers the next season – 3.90 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 27.2 percent K rate and a 94.7 mph mean fastball in 64 2/3 frames – but he barely took the mound over the previous two years.

In his most recent action, the 2019 season, Steckenrider yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits (six of which were home runs) and issued 14 strikeouts against five walks in 14 1/3 innings. His season ended that May on account of a flexor strain, and he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since then. The Marlins went on to outright Steckenrider, who elected free agency last fall and then signed a minor league contract with the Mariners. He earned a roster spot with the M’s after throwing seven innings of two-run, seven-hit ball with nine strikeouts and four walks in the spring.

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