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Tigers Nearing Six-Year Deal With Justin Upton

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8:34pm: The two sides are closing in on an agreement, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that it’ll be a six-year deal, if finalized.

8:29pm: The Tigers are in discussions with free agent outfielder Justin Upton, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Things have been relatively quiet on the Upton front as of late, with more focus being placed on fellow corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, but Detroit does stand out as a logical landing spot for a top-tier outfielder.

As it stands, the Tigers figure to use a combination of Anthony Gose and Cameron Maybin in left field and center field, though the addition of Upton could theoretically push those two into a platoon or shift Gose into fourth outfielder territory. Detroit general manager Al Avila has said previously that he considers his heavy lifting this winter to be complete and finds a significant outfield addition unlikely, but owner Mike Ilitch could potentially go over his GM’s head in order to bring in a high-profile outfield addition. Upton, who has slashed .262/.344/.470 and averaged 27 homers per year across the past three seasons would certainly fit the bill.

It remains unclear how serious talks between the two sides are at present, and adding another hefty contract to the books with Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann all signed through 2019, plus Victor Martinez through 2018 and Ian Kinsler and Anibal Sanchez through 2017 would be risky. However, Ilitch has long been one of the most aggressive owners in terms of free-agent spending and candidly stated earlier this offseason (after the Zimmermann signing) that he “didn’t care” about spending money.

Signing Upton, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres in November, would cost the Tigers a draft pick. However, Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, and the team already forfeited its second-round pick to sign Zimmermann, meaning that the cost to sign Upton for Detroit would be “only” a third-round pick — a considerably lighter cost than many other potential Upton suitors would face.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies

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Here’s the latest from around the league:

  • With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
  • The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
  • Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
  • The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes’ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.

Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal

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12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.

12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.

JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.

JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year.  That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.

6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.

4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”

The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.

As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.

Outfield Market Notes: Cespedes, CarGo, Cards, Upton

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The prolonged availability of Yoenis Cespedes on the free agent market has apparently drawn some bargain hunters. Jon Heyman reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets and Braves both have had at least some level of interest in an communication with the All-Star outfielder. New York is said to be willing to put together a two or three-year deal, per Heyman, while it’s not clear what Atlanta might be inclined to offer. The White Sox have previously been said to have interest that stops at three years. As I noted in the linked post, a big AAV and an early opt-out could be an interesting scenario, though Cespedes is still likely to exhaust all possibilities of a deal more commensurate with his big-time earning power after an MVP-caliber season.

Here are some more notes on an outfield market that has shown increased movement in recent weeks:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Braves would have to move an outfielder in order to sign Cespedes now that Hector Olivera is in the outfield. Moving Ender Inciarte, in theory, could make room for Cespedes as a stopgap of sorts in center field, he further tweets, though Atlanta would need to trade yet another outfielder once Mallex Smith is ready for a look in center (thereby shifting Cespedes to a corner spot).
  • Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the Braves do indeed have some interest, though they’re only interested in a short-term pact as well. Bowman notes that even if Cespedes were to get to the point where he considered accepting a one- or two-year deal — an unlikely scenario — Atlanta would need to clear payroll in order to facilitate the acquisition. Asked by one of his Twitter followers about the odds of Atlanta striking a deal with Cespedes, Bowman likened them to the chances of winning the Powerball (Twitter link). While Bowman is clearly having some fun with that tweet, the fact that he is more or less dismissive of the entire notion is telling.
  • Rosenthal also reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets have received no indication from Cespedes’ agents that he’s willing to take a short-term deal. Cespedes remains committed to securing a longer-term deal — a concept to which the Mets have reportedly been averse all offseason long.
  • Several industry sources tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they still expect Cespedes to take down a big contract. He traces the hold-up at the top of the outfield market to the standoff between Chris Davis and the Orioles.
  • Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has drawn interest from the Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox, and Angels at times this winter, Heyman notes (Twitter links). (The team has also been contacted by the Nationals and Giants, both of which have since added outfielders.) We’ve heard recently, though, that Los Angeles probably can’t take on that kind of salary and has not spoken recently with Colorado. And Heyman says that the “sticking point” with the O’s has been that team’s unwillingness to part with young righty (and Colorado native) Kevin Gausman.
  • FOX Sports has a series of posts today regarding outfielders. Ken Rosenthal and Dave Cameron take opposing sides on the question whether the Cardinals ought to focus on adding an outfield upgrade. Rosenthal explains that the Phillies probably won’t make a value play for Justin Upton, in large part because their second-round pick is a valuable part of a talent-acquisition strategy. And Jon Morosi says that this year’s winter’s market for outfielders has gone in unexpected directions.

Free Agent Notes: Upton, Cespedes, Kennedy, ChiSox, Cardinals

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Few could’ve predicted that Justin Upton’s market would play out so slowly, writes ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in a lengthy examination of Upton’s journey to the open market. Crasnick notes that Upton is somewhat a victim of borderline unreachable expectations, noting that some view him as a disappointment for being a considerably above-average outfielder as opposed to the generational talent that some hoped for when scouts began raving about him at age 14 and when some outlets compared him to Ken Griffey Jr. as a prospect. Crasnick spoke to executives and Upton’s former skipper, Fredi Gonzalez, with many heaping praise on the 28-year-old — Gonzalez in particular. “He’s been one of my favorite players that I’ve managed in my career,” said Gonzalez. “He shows up at the ballpark every day ready to play. He’s respectful. He knows the game. He’s a great teammate and clubhouse guy. … I’m very surprised that he’s still out there. I think there are a lot of teams missing the boat on him. I really do.” Crasnick also spoke to execs about Upton’s defense, examined his perceived attitude problems as a prospect and also spoke to some in the industry about the potential difficulty of watching his brother struggle alongside him with the Braves and the Padres.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • While many (myself included) have speculated that Chris Davis is holding up the market, to an extent, for the remaining corner bats, ESPN’s Jayson Stark believes that Yoenis Cespedes is holding up the market more than Davis at this point (Twitter link). Some of the slow-moving market for top bats is unrelated to either player, he adds. From my vantage point, with the Orioles focused on Davis but standing as a logical landing spot for either Upton or Cespedes, the argument could be made that Davis is slowing things down. Jeff Todd and I recently discussed as much on the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Jon Heyman tweets that as the starting pitching market continues to narrow, the Royals, Nationals, Astros and Rockies are the most likely landing spots for right-hander Ian Kennedy. However, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding feels differently, tweeting that if the Rockies make a rotation upgrade, it’s going to come via trade rather than a high-priced free agent like Kennedy. The Royals’ spacious park and elite outfield defense would seem, to me, to be an ideal fit for a fly-ball pitcher like Kennedy, while those same fly-ball tendencies and Kennedy’s previous home run troubles make him a poor fit at Coors Field.
  • In his daily Insider-only column (subscription required), ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that there’s a belief around the industry that the White Sox are open to outfield upgrades but don’t want to spend at the levels necessary to land Upton or Cespedes. A second-tier option makes more sense, Olney notes, and while he stops short of speculating on specific names, I’ll add that players such as Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson could be fits for the South Siders. (Gerardo Parra, too, would’ve made sense but agreed to a three-year pact with the Rockies earlier today.)
  • While many Cardinals fans would like to see the Redbirds enter the market for Cespedes, Upton or another high-profile outfield bat, GM John Mozeliak told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch that such a scenario isn’t likely. “I know that some people disagree and want us to do something else, but Matt Adams, having [Brandon] Moss, giving [Randal] Grichuk an opportunity to be the everyday center fielder feels right to us,” said Mozeliak. “If we go out and add an outfielder, where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like compared to the long-term commitment? And honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Langosch writes that St. Louis has been watching the Upton, Cespedes, Fowler and Davis markets from the periphery but would only jump in if the price got to the point where the club felt the opportunity to add value was too good to pass up. Moss, according to Langosch, will get the chance to cement himself as primary option at first base.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, McDonald, Chen, Indians, Twins

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The Tigers have discussed signing a variety of bats in an effort to bolster their production from left field, including Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, reports Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Detroit has even talked about Chris Davis and Ian Desmond as possible options in left field, Heyman adds. However, there’s also the possibility that the Tigers simply go a more affordable route, adding a platoon bat such as Ryan Raburn to pair with the left-handed-hitting Anthony Gose. (Raburn represents a highly familiar name for Detroit, as he spent parts of seven seasons in a Tigers uniform.) Any additions made by the Tigers will come down to the financial requirements, Heyman notes, as money is a “real question” for the Tigers. Of course, earlier this winter, owner Mike Ilitch flatly told reporters that he “[doesn’t] care about spending money,” so agents may be hoping to pitch directly to Ilitch as opposed to GM Al Avila, who has preached a more measured approach to spending thus far.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press also weighs in on Detroit’s outfield search (Twitter link). Fenech hears that the Tigers would need an impact outfielder to settle for a short-term deal in order for said player to be a realistic option at this point. Raburn, Fenech reports, is indeed in play for the Tigers at this time, however.
  • The Indians have added a pair of recent big leaguers to their player development staff, naming defensive wizard John McDonald their new minor league infield coordinator and lefty Bruce Chen their cultural development coordinator (hat tip: MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, on Twitter). McDonald spent seven seasons playing for the Indians, batting just .229/.268/.305 but playing brilliant defense, as was his calling card over the life of his 16-year career. Chen logged just 6 1/3 innings in an Indians uniform at the end of his career, but the veteran was long praised for his clubhouse demeanor. Chen appeared on the MLBTR Podcast to discuss his retirement as a player last May and was an excellent guest with many fascinating stories for those who are interested.
  • The Royals’ decision to re-sign Alex Gordon is the exact type of move that the Indians should have made (or should still make) this offseason, opines Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Hoynes writes that the Royals have made a statement by exceeding their comfort levels to not only retain Gordon but bring Joakim Soria back into the fold on a three-year contract. Meanwhile, Cleveland has operated on the fringes of the market, adding Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis on one-year deals. Hoynes feels that while ownership has every right to be a bit hesitant after the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn contracts turned into busts, it’s difficult to construct a team capable of making a deep playoff run with this approach to the offseason. Hoynes argues that Cleveland should be taking advantage of the AL’s top rotation, the league’s second-best bullpen ERA and a markedly improved defense by aggressively pursuing their greatest need: a run-producing outfielder to slot into the middle of the lineup.
  • After years of struggling, the Twins received respectable, albeit unspectacular results from their rotation in 2015 (16th in the Majors in ERA) and now have depth heading into Spring Training, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Per Bollinger, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes and Tyler Duffey can probably be penciled in for rotation spots. Competing for the fifth spot will be Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco and top prospect Jose Berrios. While Berrios isn’t expected to open the year in the Majors, he should debut at some point this season, Bollinger notes. He also adds that returning to the rotation is May’s preference, but his excellence in transitioning to a bullpen role out of necessity last season has manager Paul Molitor leaning toward keeping May in the bullpen. Nolasco is still owed $25MM through 2017 and will have every opportunity to earn a rotation job this spring, but he could end up as a very expensive long reliever as well, Bollinger adds.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Chi Chi, Upton, Gray, Span

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Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine and A’s executive Billy Beane appeared on the MLB Network Radio show with Jim Bowden to discuss offseason rumors (tweets 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Levine spoke broadly about Texas’ approach in free agency, saying “we’ll stay in touch with all the agents for the existing free agents. If something does fall into our lap, we’ll be poised to strike.” Reports suggest the Rangers have some budgetary constraints in play, but the roster is already is decent shape.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Rangers have not offered pitching prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez to the Marlins for outfielder Marcell Ozuna. There is “no truth to the rumor,” per Levine, although he does confirm that the Rangers have talked shop with the Marlins and other clubs. Earlier today, we heard that Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds hoped to keep Ozuna with the Marlins.
  • Levine and associates are long time admirers of Justin Upton. The aforementioned budget constraints restrict the club from making a long term commitment. However, they’ll continue to monitor the status of his market.
  • The A’s have “resisted some pretty aggressive suitors” for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, per Beane. “We’ve been adamant with teams that we want to hang on to Gray.” He’s coming off arguably his best season in which he posted a 2.3 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and a 53 percent ground ball rate over 208 innings. Throughout his three season career, the 26-year-old has relied on inducing weak contact to keep runners off the bases. He’s under club control for four more seasons.
  • While outsiders often consider January to be a slow baseball month, Beane maintains that it can be very productive. The A’s are still trying to improve the club via trade. It’s also possible a free agent or two could slip through the cracks.
  • The Mets had interest in signing Denard Span before he agreed to terms with the Giants, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Per GM Sandy Alderson, payroll wasn’t a deterrent. “The biggest issue for us was the injury.” The Mets have not had a splashy offseason, but the additions of Neil Walker, Alejandro De Aza, and Asdrubal Cabrera feel similar to those of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe during the season. While Johnson and Uribe were just role players, their arrival on the roster coincided with a surge in the standings. In particular, the addition of De Aza gives the club flexibility to take advantage of any free agents looking for a pillow contract with a contender – perhaps like crowd favorite Yoenis Cespedes.

AL East Notes: Encarnacion, Bautista, Rays, Bundy, Yankees

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Several executives appeared on MLB Network Radio with Jim Bowden today including Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and Rays president of baseball operation Matt Silverman. Atkins spoke on a number of subjects (tweets 1, 2, 3, 4) including the roles of prospects Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna. Both have succeeded in the bullpen, and the Jays “want to stay flexible. We don’t want to paint ourselves into a corner, just increase depth.” It’s been speculated that one or both pitchers could be converted back to the rotation – possibly in the minors.

Here’s more from the radio show and around the division:

  • Atkins has met with Edwin Encarnacion and plans to meet with Jose Bautista next week to discuss contract extensions. No offers have been made. Both sluggers are in the final year of their respective contracts. Encarnacion, 33, will earn $10MM in 2016 while Bautista, 35, will take home $14MM. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, they are in line for large raises.
  • Atkins also addressed rumors regarding R.A. Dickey. We’re “not actively shopping him,” per Atkins. As is the policy with most players, the club will listen to offers. Given that the rotation isn’t exactly a strong suit for the Blue Jays, I figure the club would have to be on the verge of signing a free agent like Wei-Yin Chen or Yovani Gallardo if they’re seriously considering a Dickey swap.
  • Moving onto the Rays, the club is hopeful a vote next week could free them up to look at stadium sites in Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg (tweet). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has more specific details of the proposal if you’re interested. Relocation negotiations with St. Petersburg have long clouded the Rays economic future.
  • Silverman confirmed that the Rays have talked frequently with the Cubs (tweet). “We know we line up really well with them given our depth and strengths.” Earlier this winter, we heard rumors of Chicago interest in starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. The Rays were said to be interested in infielder Javier Baez.
  • While Tampa Bay will entertain offers for their relievers, “they are a big part of our club.” Last season, the Rays maximized the performances of pitchers like Erasmo Ramirez and Nate Karns by turning to the bullpen early in their starts. The club could look to leverage their relievers in a similar way this season. As such, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger may stay put.
  • The health of Orioles prospect Dylan Bundy will be one of the top stories in their upcoming minicamp, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Bundy has spent most of the last three seasons on the disabled list after making two relief appearances in 2012. As such, he’s out of options but hasn’t had an opportunity to develop over the last three campaigns. In many ways, he resembles a Rule 5 pick.
  • Should the Orioles consider forfeiting their 14th overall pick to sign Justin Upton or Gallardo, wonders Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports. He takes a look at 14th picks back through 1990. The finding: there are some big hits and misses (this is true of all picks in the middle of the first round). In the case of signing Upton, it’s a lot easier to justify discarding a long term draft asset. Kubatko would want Gallardo to ink a three-year deal in order to part with the pick.
  • The Yankees have two spots left on the 40-man roster and a couple ways to fill them, writes Ryan Hatch of NJ.com. As he notes, a splashy trade is possible. However, I agree that it’s more likely the club targets another backup infielder to provide depth up the middle or a pitcher to compete for a middle relief role.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

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With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.

Olney On Piazza, Upton, Davis, Bastardo, Giants

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Mike Piazza’s induction into the Hall of Fame could help the cases for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, writes Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider Only). With Piazza increasing from 57.8 percent to 83 percent of the vote in just four years, Olney figures that writers will need to consider the hypocrisy of their voting behavior. While Piazza (and fellow candidate Jeff Bagwell) are suspected by some writers of having used PEDs, Clemens and Bonds are known users. In my opinion, that will supply all the rationalization needed by intransigent writers.

On to current baseball news:

  • The Orioles are the beneficiaries of the Denard Span signing. As one of the few teams with money and a pressing need in the outfield, they have leverage in talks with players like Justin Upton. Olney is not the first to wonder if Upton would sign a pillow contract to play with the Orioles. The Rangers are another team interested in Upton on a one-year contract.
  • While Baltimore may eventually sign Chris Davis, some in the organization would like to reduce their seven-year, $150MM offer or simply move on to other players. To me, it seems as though Davis is playing a dangerous game of chicken. However, agent Scott Boras has successful navigated similar scenarios. One notable example is the Cardinals’ signing of Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120MM deal prior to the 2010 season.
  • In further Baltimore-related news, the club has “a lot of interest” in southpaw reliever Antonio Bastardo. He’s coming off a successful campaign with the Pirates. He posted a 2.98 ERA, 10.05 K/9 and 4.08 BB/9 in 57 innings – numbers similar to his career marks. As a fly ball pitcher, Bastardo may not be the best fit for the mostly small ball parks of the AL East. However, Bastardo did have success preventing home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park for most of his career. If the O’s inked Bastardo, they would probably trade fellow lefty Brian Matusz.
  • The Giants would benefit from more roster depth, but they won’t use the free agent market to build it. Olney figures the club will explore trades for additional personnel.
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