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Justin Turner

MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
  • Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Sign Justin Turner

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Jan. 31: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports the breakdown of Turner’s incentive package. He’ll unlock $125K bonuses for reaching 500, 525, 550 and 575 plate appearances, plus another $250K for reaching each of 600, 625 and 650 plate appearances. Turner also secures a $150K bonus for reaching 120 days on the active roster and another $100K for spending 150 days on the active roster.

Jan. 30: The Blue Jays will have a new designated hitter for the 2024 season, announcing they’ve signed free agent Justin Turner to a one-year contract. It is reportedly a $13MM deal with The Vayner Sports client, who can earn an additional $1.5MM based on both roster bonuses and performance incentives, taking his deal to a maximum of $14.5MM.

Turner turned 39 years old in November but certainly wasn’t showing any signs of his age in 2023, when he slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 31 doubles, an 8.1% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate in 146 games and 626 plate appearances with the Red Sox.

By measure of wRC+, Turner was about 14% better than league-average at the plate — his incredible tenth consecutive season being at least 14% above par with the bat. He was one of the top remaining corner infield and designated hitter options and will install a “professional hitter” into the Toronto lineup — one who is generally revered for his leadership and clubhouse presence as well.

The consistency Turner brings to the plate is rather remarkable. He hasn’t batted lower than .275, posted an OBP under .339, slugged less than .438 or struck out in more than 18% of his plate appearances in any of the past ten seasons since establishing himself as a regular with the Dodgers in 2014. Overall, he’s a .293/.371/.486 hitter in that time. He’s averaged 24 home runs and 35 doubles per 162 games played over that decade-long span.

Turner’s contract with the Red Sox was a two-year, $22.7MM contract, the second season of which was a player option. He took home an $8.3MM salary in 2023 and also received a $6.7MM buyout on the option when he turned it down to return to the open market. Turner is guaranteed less on this new contract than he was a year ago, although with incentives he’ll be able to nearly match the $15MM he ultimately received for his lone year in Boston. And, given that the player option was a net $7.7MM call for him, he still clearly came out ahead in his decision to decline his player option.

With the Jays, Turner figures to serve as their primary designated hitter but can also split time at the hot corner with fellow free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or another yet-to-be-made acquisition). He’s also logged 527 career innings at first base, including 289 last year in Boston, making him a viable option to spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he needs a breather as well.

If there’s one drawback to the match between the two parties, from the team’s vantage point, it’s that Turner adds another right-handed bat to a lineup that already skews heavily toward that side of the plate. He’s effectively replacing the left-handed-hitting Brandon Belt, who notably remains unsigned and had a strong year at the plate for the Jays in 2023 in a heavily platooned role.

As it stands, left fielder Daulton Varsho, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and infielder Cavan Biggio are the only lefties projected in the Toronto lineup. No one from that group is an especially formidable lefty presence, and all are best served in a platoon arrangement. Turner has slightly better career numbers against righties than lefties, which helps to mitigate some of the concern, but the Jays could still struggle against premium right-handed pitchers at times, given their lack of balance in the lineup.

Thus far, Turner marks the biggest upgrade to the Toronto lineup of the offseason. The Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani and also met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but both players wound up signing with the Dodgers. The Jays were also said to have strong interest in lefty-swinging Joc Pederson before he inked a comparable deal to Turner’s with the D-backs.

The Jays have been tied to a number of bat-first players over the past month, talking to representatives for free agent sluggers like J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins and Pederson. Their interest to Turner dates back to at least mid-December, and now that it’s manifested in a deal, the Jays are presumably out of the running for yet-unsigned DH options like Martinez and Soler. Turner joins Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and now-former NPB righty-hander Yariel Rodriguez as notable free agent pickups for the Jays so far in the 2023-24 offseason.

The addition of Turner should push the Blue Jays firmly into luxury tax territory. Toronto had a bottom-line payroll of $228MM before agreeing to terms with Turner, per Roster Resource, and the Jays were already slightly north of $237MM luxury barrier. Turner will move both numbers forward by $13MM. Since the Jays are a second-time payor of the tax, their penalty will be rather light: a simple 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and another 42% tax for the next $20MM, if further additions are forthcoming.

With regard to the Turner signing, they’ll end up paying $3.9MM in luxury penalties, which clearly wasn’t a significant deterrent for them. The $240MM Opening Day payroll for which the Jays are now projected stands as a franchise-record by a magnitude of $30MM — topping last the $210MM high-water mark previously established just last year.

Looking ahead, it still seems possible there are further moves to be made for the Jays, who currently project to divide playing time at second base and third base among Biggio, Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider and Santiago Espinal. Schneider, in particular, had an intriguing 2023 debut when he hit .276/.404/.603 — but that was a tiny sample of 141 plate appearances and came with a .369 BABIP in addition to a 30.5% strikeout rate. Some regression should surely be expected. Kiner-Falefa is best known for his defensive versatility and is a better utility option than everyday player. Biggio had a solid 2023 showing at the dish but has never come close to replicating his 2019-20 numbers. Espinal is coming off a career-worst .248/.310/.335 performance.

In the rotation, Toronto is still facing some uncertainty at the back end of the group. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and a resurgent Jose Berrios form a strong top three, but Yusei Kikuchi has lacked consistency on a year-to-year basis and Alek Manoah struggled through a catastrophic season on the mound. The aforementioned Rodriguez could eventually be a rotation option, but that’s more likely in 2025, as he’ll be on a strict innings count this season. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could debut in 2024 as well but thus far has just four innings above the Double-A level.

The Blue Jays have been tied to several high-profile and still-unsigned names — Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman among them. Re-signing Chapman is a cleaner fit from a roster construction standpoint, as Toronto has Varsho, Kiermaier and George Springer across the outfield and now Turner at designated hitter, making a rotation including the DH spot more difficult. Adding another bat and/or rotation piece would help to lessen the sting of missing out on top targets earlier in the winter, though it remains unclear how much more ownership is willing to spend after already soaring past the franchise’s prior spending levels.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that the agreement and the terms.

The Top Unsigned Designated Hitters

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the catchers, shortstops, center fielders, first basemen and second basemen still available. We’ll take a look at the top DH options on the market next. Obviously, this is a subjective category. Any player can technically serve as a designated hitter, after all. There are a handful of older and/or defensively limited sluggers who aren’t likely to sign anywhere that doesn’t have substantial DH at-bats available. That’ll be the focus here.

  • Jorge Soler: After opting out of the final year and $13MM on his contract with the Marlins, Soler should be in position for a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old belted 36 home runs with the Fish in 2023 despite the pitcher-friendly nature of their home park, reducing his strikeout rate to 24.3% — the second-lowest of his career. His 11.4% walk rate was the second-best in his career. Soler remained one of the best in the game in terms of strong contact, delivering an excellent 91.3 mph average exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. Unlike the others on this list, Soler is both in his early 30s and has a demonstrated history of hitting for top-of-the-scale power in the big leagues. Everyone’s power production was up during the juiced-ball 2019 season, but Soler still paced the American League with 48 homers and finished third in all of baseball that season. The Blue Jays have been most heavily connected to Soler recently. Other suitors like the D-backs (Joc Pederson) and Mariners (Mitch Garver) have signed other DH candidates. Beyond Toronto, the Mets, Giants and Angels have all been more loosely linked to Soler.
  • J.D. Martinez: Martinez had a “down” season by his standards in 2022 when he “only” hit .274/.341/.448 with 16 homers in his final season with the Red Sox. He more than doubled that home run total with the Dodgers in 2023, smashing 33 homers despite tallying just 479 plate appearances. It’s possible that Martinez has begun selling out for power even more than he may already have been at times in the past. Last year’s 31.1% strikeout rate was easily the worst of his career, and his 7.1% walk rate was his lowest since 2014. Even if that’s the case, there’s no getting around the fact that JDM was a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence. He hit .271/.321/.572 overall and posted elite numbers in average exit velocity (93.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.4%). He’s entering his age-36 season, but Martinez can still mash.
  • Justin Turner: Turner turned 39 in December but you’d never know it looking at last year’s .276/.345/.455 batting line with the Red Sox. Turner connected on 23 home runs, walked at a respectable 8.1% clip and struck out in 17.6% of his plate appearances — about five percentage points below the league average. Turner embodies the “professional hitter” archetype and can still take the field at any of third base, first base or perhaps even second base in a pinch. Turner hasn’t had a below-average season at the plate since establishing himself as a regular with the Dodgers back in 2014, and there’s little reason to think that’s about to change.
  • Brandon Belt: He’ll turn 36 in April and has battled knee troubles in recent seasons, but Belt can still flat-out mash right-handed pitching. Like Turner, he can still play defense on a part-time basis — Belt logged 29 games at first base last season — but 70% of his games came as the Blue Jays’ designated hitter. Toronto only gave Belt 39 plate appearances against lefties, and he’ll be similarly limited wherever he signs next. But Belt hit .256/.375/.516 against righties as a member of the Jays, and he’s only gotten better in platoon situations as his career has progressed. Since making his MLB debut, he’s a .267/.364/.480 hitter against righties, but those numbers jump to .269/.376/.541 dating back to 2020 (150 wRC+).
  • Mike Ford: The 31-year-old Ford doesn’t have anywhere near the track record of Soler, Martinez or Turner, but he posted eye-popping numbers in a half season with the Mariners last season. The former Yankees farmhand hit 16 homers in just 251 plate appearances. His .228 average was something of an eyesore, but Ford walked at a 9.6% clip and managed to post a .323 OBP while slugging .475. Despite the power production, Ford was non-tendered by the Mariners, who were looking to reduce their strikeout rate and may have worried that Ford’s 32.3% mark in that regard made him a long shot to replicate his success. That he was non-tendered also suggests that the M’s couldn’t find a trade partner for him, even with a modest $1.5MM projected salary. Ford could wind up signing a minor league pact or a very low-cost big league deal. He’s an affordable three-true-outcomes slugger who can be controlled through the 2026 season via arbitration by any team that signs him.

Honorable Mentions: Austin Meadows, C.J. Cron, Daniel Vogelbach

The Top Unsigned Third Basemen

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the catchers, shortstops, center fielders and first basemen still available and will now take a look at some notable third basemen.

  • Matt Chapman: One of the best defensive third basemen in the league, Chapman leads the league in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating since the start of 2017. In terms of Outs Above Average, he’s second, trailing only Nolan Arenado. Offensively, he’s strikeout prone but takes his walks and hits home runs. His 2023 season ended up a bit below his previous work, though that may have been caused by a late-season finger injury. His 17 home runs were his first time below 24 in a full season. Chapman’s .240/.330/.424 batting line and 110 wRC+ were a bit lower than his career pace, but through August 13, when he hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he had 15 homers and was sitting on a line of .255/.346/.449 with a 121 wRC+. A down year by his standards, he still produced 3.5 fWAR, his lowest in a full season. He’s had interest from plenty of clubs this offseason but remains unattached as Spring Training nears. Chapman turned down a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, thus tying him to draft pick compensation.
  • Gio Urshela: Going back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees, Urshela has hit .291/.335/.452 for a wRC+ of 115. He’s generally considered a sure-handed defender, though the advanced metrics are split on his work at the hot corner. Urshela has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 13.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career work at third, but Outs Above Average gives him a dreary -18. He’s coming off a rough platform season, as he hit just two home runs in his 62 games with the Angels and walked in only 4.4% of his plate appearances. His .299/.329/.374 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92. He then suffered a season-ending pelvic fracture in June. Despite that rough year, he’s the best shot at an everyday third baseman apart from Chapman. There should be a huge difference in terms of their earning potential, which could make Urshela attractive to those who won’t come close to Chapman’s asking price.
  • Justin Turner: He won’t be relied upon as an everyday option at the hot corner or any other position, but Turner can still hit and isn’t entirely limited to a designated hitter role just yet. With the Red Sox in 2023, he appeared in 41 games at first, 10 at second and seven at third base. The Dodgers gave him 66 starts at the hot corner in 2022 and 135 the year before that. He’s now 39 years old and his time in the field will likely keep dwindling, but the bat still plays. He hit 23 home runs last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. A one-year deal seems likely.
  • Evan Longoria: One year younger than Turner, Longoria still managed to head out to third base in 41 contests in 2023, with solid metrics for his work out there. Unfortunately, his work at the plate wasn’t as strong. He had never struck out in more than 24% of his plate appearances in any season of his career until 2022, when that number jumped to 27.9% and then to 30.8% in the most recent campaign. His .223/.295/.422 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92 last year. But just the year prior, he hit .244/.315/.451 for the Giants, leading to a 116 wRC+. He won’t be considered an everyday option, having not played 90 games in a season since 2019.
  • Josh Donaldson: Detractors might say Donaldson is washed, and there are 2023 stats they can point to, such as a .152 batting average. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only played 51 games on the year. But he hit 13 home runs in that limited action and drew walks at an 11.6% rate. His .115 batting average on balls in play wouldn’t be sustained over a longer stretch of playing time, particularly given his 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 51.3% hard-hit rate, so perhaps there’s still a potent bat in there if the baseball gods quit messing with him. His defensive grades at the hot corner have stayed strong, even as he’s now 38 years old. Donaldson said in November he’d like to play for one more year and go out on a high note rather than the down season through which he struggled in 2023. He should be available on an inexpensive one-year contract.

Honorable mentions: Brian Anderson, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas

Designated Hitter Possibilities For Diamondbacks

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The defending National League champions were among the most aggressive teams early in the offseason. They acquired Eugenio Suárez to address third base and fortified the rotation via a four-year, $80MM contract with Eduardo Rodríguez. Just before Christmas, they reunited with left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM guarantee.

Arizona hasn’t made a major league addition since finalizing their new contract with Gurriel a month ago. They’re not done, however. GM Mike Hazen has said a few times the Snakes are looking for a hitter they can plug in at the DH spot. He reiterated that in a chat with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic not long after the new year, suggesting at the time they felt they were likelier to add another bat in free agency than through trade. While Arizona was focused primarily on right-handed hitters early in the winter, their deals with Suárez and Gurriel have balanced the lineup. Hazen indicated they’re considering DH options of either handedness at this point.

A few of their reported targets remain on the market. Some potential fits:

Right-Handed Free Agents

  • J.D. Martinez: Martinez, who mashed in a two-month stint for Arizona at the end of the 2017 season, remains one of the more productive hitters in the majors. He’s coming off perhaps his best year since 2019. He blasted 33 home runs in only 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers a season ago. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was stellar and he turned in his highest hard contact rate (54.8%) of the Statcast era. The huge power production partially masks an uptick in whiffs, as he struck out at a career-high 31.1% clip. That’s a bit alarming, but teams would happily live with the strikeouts if they anticipate Martinez hitting for that kind of power again. Arizona was tied to Martinez, who did not receive a qualifying offer from L.A., in early December. The Blue Jays, Angels and Mets have also been tied to his market.
  • Jorge Soler: Soler, 32 next month, drilled 36 homers for the Marlins a season ago. His .250/.341/.512 showing was a huge improvement on the .207/.295/.400 mark he turned in during his first year in Miami. Soler made the easy call to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact. The Marlins decided not to issue a QO and, according to the slugger, haven’t shown any interest in a reunion. While Soler is one of the sport’s streakiest hitters, he’s near the top of the league in raw power. He draws plenty of walks and trimmed his strikeouts to a managable 24.3% clip last season. Soler should find at least two guaranteed years and has an argument for a three-year pact. Arizona checked in on his market in early December. They’ve been joined by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners in that regard (although Seattle is probably out of the mix after signing Mitch Garver and reacquiring Mitch Haniger).
  • Justin Turner: Arizona has been linked to Turner in consecutive offseasons. Even at 39, he continues to produce at the plate. He’s coming off a .276/.345/.455 showing with 23 longballs in 626 trips to the dish for the Red Sox. His is a balanced offensive profile. He walks at an average rate, makes a decent amount of hard contact and remains very difficult to strike out (17.6% strikeout percentage last year). Turner is no longer capable of playing every day at third base, but he can factor in at either corner infield spot while logging the bulk of his at-bats at DH. Toronto, the incumbent Red Sox, and Mets have also been linked to him this winter.
  • Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is the only player in this group to whom the D-Backs haven’t been connected. Perhaps he’s simply not interested in signing as a full-time designated hitter. With Christian Walker at first base, the Snakes would have to push Hoskins into a bat-only role on most days. If he’s open to that possibility, Hoskins makes sense as one of the more consistent offensive players still on the market. The longtime Phillie missed last year after tearing his ACL in Spring Training. Between 2019-22, he hit .240/.349/.479 in more than 2000 trips to the plate. Philadelphia did not issue him a qualifying offer.

Left-Handed Platoon Bats

  • Brandon Belt: While Arizona hasn’t been tied to Belt this offseason, that’s true of essentially everyone. There haven’t been any public revelations on his market despite his strong 2023 season in a platoon capacity for the Blue Jays. The longtime Giant hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 homers through 404 plate appearances. That came almost entirely against right-handed pitching, but he’s still a productive three-true-outcomes hitter when he holds the platoon advantage.
  • Joc Pederson: Last year wasn’t a great showing for Pederson, who hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers across 425 trips for the Giants. That’s not what San Francisco envisioned when extending him a near-$20MM qualifying offer last winter. Pederson won’t come close to that kind of salary this time around. Still, he’s only a year removed from a .274/.353/.521 line. Pederson continues to post hard contact rates near the top of the league and has five 20-homer seasons on his résumé.

Trade Possibilities

While Hazen indicated a free agent pursuit was likelier than a trade, they’re not going to close off the latter market entirely. If they don’t find an agreeable price point with any of their targets on the open market, there are a few speculative possibilities on the trade front.

  • Eloy Jiménez: Jiménez is a right-handed hitter who has flashed 30-homer power upside. His career has been interrupted by frequent injuries, including extended absences in 2021 and ’22 (for a ruptured pectoral tendon and a hamstring tendon tear, respectively). Last year was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 games. It was also among his least productive seasons, as he hit .272/.317/.441 with 18 homers through 489 plate appearances. Jiménez will make $13MM next year and is guaranteed a $3MM buyout on the first of two club options for 2025-26. The Sox reportedly haven’t found much interest on the trade market as a result.
  • Harold Ramírez: The Rays have floated Ramírez in trade discussions as a potential sell-high candidate. The 29-year-old had an impressive .313/.353/.460 showing last year. He’s up to a .306/.348/.432 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances since Tampa Bay acquired him on the eve of the 2022 season. That production is built around a batting average on balls in play above .350 as opposed to prototypical DH power. While that and an aggressive offensive approach could give some teams pause, he’s a high-contact righty hitter with gap power and the ability to take the ball to all fields. Ramírez is on track to go to an arbitration hearing with Tampa Bay to determine his 2024 salary. He filed at $4.3MM, while the team countered at $3.8MM. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more after that.
  • Brent Rooker: Rooker, 29, turned in a career year for the A’s. Claimed off waivers from Kansas City last offseason, he popped 30 homers with a .246/.329/.488 showing in 526 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter posted excellent numbers against southpaws (.279/.354/.519) and acceptable production versus same-handed arms (.230/.316/.472). He struck out in nearly a third of his trips but tapped into the huge raw power that made him the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Rooker is still a year from arbitration and under club control for four seasons. The A’s don’t have any urgency to trade him, but they probably wouldn’t consider him a core piece of their long-term rebuild given his age and defensive limitations.

Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson

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After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.

Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.

After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.

If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.

Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.

Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.

Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.

Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.

Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.

It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.

Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.

Mets Showing Interest In Justin Turner

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The Mets have been engaged with representatives for free agent corner infielder Justin Turner, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. They join the Diamondbacks and incumbent Red Sox among the teams known to be in the mix for the 39-year-old.

Turner spent three and a half seasons in Queens over a decade ago. At the time, he looked like a versatile but unexceptional infielder. After hitting .265/.326/.370 as a Met, Turner caught on with the Dodgers for the 2014 campaign. That change of scenery and an overhauled swing launched Turner to stardom. He raked at a .296/.375/.490 clip in nine seasons with Los Angeles before signing with Boston an offseason ago.

Despite his age, Turner remains a very good hitter. In 626 plate appearances, he hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs. Turner kept his strikeout percentage to a modest 17.6% clip with solid power and plate discipline. The righty-hitting Turner had dramatic platoon splits last season, particularly from a slugging perspective, but he traditionally fares as well or better against same-handed pitching.

While Turner hasn’t shown many signs of decline in the batter’s box, his defensive responsibilities have waned. In his final season as a Dodger, he spent an equal amount of time at third base and designated hitter. Turner didn’t see much defensive work in Boston, starting 98 times at DH. He manned the hot corner on seven occasions, picked up four starts at second, and opened 35 contests at first base. That’s in part because the Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners. Yet it’s also a question how heavy a defensive workload Turner can handle at this stage of his career.

That shouldn’t be a concern for the Mets. Turner wouldn’t see much first base action barring an injury to Pete Alonso. New York doesn’t have proven solutions at third base or DH, however. Young hitters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos project as the respective starters. Both are formerly well-regarded prospects, yet neither has produced at the big league level thus far.

President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets weren’t looking for a third baseman. That preceded an unfortunate ACL tear for young infielder Ronny Mauricio, who’d seemed a strong candidate for the third base job before his winter ball injury. Whether that changes the calculus for Stearns and the front office isn’t clear, although Turner could fit at DH even if the Mets wanted to give Baty the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted a one-year, $16MM contract for Turner. The Mets have made clear their primary focus is the 2025 campaign, but they’re not prepared to concede the ’24 season. There’s a need for at least one middle-of-the-order offensive presence in addition to the rotation questions that have been the organization’s focus so far.

Red Sox Rumors: Second Base, Rotation, Turner, Outfield

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The Red Sox have a clear need at second base this winter, and as recently noted, newly installed chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated to reporters that he feels a trade is likelier than a free-agent signing. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic adds some more context from Breslow’s media session, noting that he called the “ideal” acquisition a right-handed bat and plus defender.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

Diamondbacks Open To Adding Full-Time Designated Hitter

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4:20pm: Arizona executives have had internal discussions about potentially making a run at Martinez or Turner, tweets Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Martinez played the second half of the 2017 season in Arizona, while Turner has reportedly been on the organization’s radar in each of the last two offseasons.

2:27pm: The annual Winter Meetings are taking place in Nashville this week and Steve Gilbert of MLB.com was able to discuss the ongoing offseason with Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen.

The club is in a very different position than some other recent years. They missed the playoffs in five straight years from 2018 to 2022, including an especially rough 110-loss season in 2021, but were able to go all the way to the World Series in 2023. Though they ultimately lost to the Rangers, the momentum from that run and the extra revenue from those playoff games could perhaps lead to a different offseason approach this winter.

“We’re engaged in the market more aggressively,” Hazen said. “It’s not to say that something’s going to happen involving us there, but I think we’re probably in a little different spot than we have been in the past going into the Winter Meetings is how I would characterize it.” Hazen goes on to suggest they are unlikely to made a trade involving someone currently on their major league roster, meaning they are likely looking to free agency or perhaps trades of prospects.

One thing that is definitely on the wish list is another right-handed bat. The club already brought one aboard by trading for Eugenio Suárez a couple of weeks ago, but that still leaves them a bit behind last year’s team. Each of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Pham and Evan Longoria reached free agency at season’s end, subtracting three righty bats from the mix. The club could acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder, though Hazen says they are also open to bringing in a full-time designated hitter.

“I think a right-handed bat is [a need],” Hazen says. “I wouldn’t say a right-handed-hitting outfielder. A right-handed bat is somebody that would help fill out our lineup. There are options and various places to get that. Depending on who that was, where that landed, how that fit, I think we would have more flexibility for how the rest of it would come together.” The outfield market has some options for a right-handed bat, including re-signing Pham or Gurriel. Then there’s also Teoscar Hernández, Harrison Bader, Adam Duvall and others. But by being open to a player that would be limited to DH duties would give them some more options.

J.D. Martinez is coming off a strong 33-homer season but needs a DH slot, having played just 12 innings in the outfield this year and none at all in 2022. Jorge Soler had 36 home runs in 2023 and should be capable of a bit more work in the field than Martinez, with 32 games in right field in 2023. However, he’s generally considered a poor fielder and fits best on a club with an open DH spot. Justin Turner can play the infield corners, and even second base in a pinch, but is now 39 and best suited for a part-time defensive role. Catcher Mitch Garver has a potent bat but has seen injuries diminish his ability to squat behind the plate with regularity. First baseman Rhys Hoskins missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL and should perhaps be signed by a club that can use the DH spot to give him a lighter workload next year. The club was speculatively connected to Martinez on the weekend and has had previous reported interest in Turner. On the trade market, Eloy Jiménez, Randy Arozarena, Tyler O’Neill, Nick Castellanos or Christopher Morel could perhaps fit the needs in Arizona.

That gives the D’Backs plenty of options to consider, none of whom should be strictly off the table financially, even though the club hasn’t been a huge spender. Roster Resource currently estimates next year’s payroll to be at $114MM right now. They have been as high as $132MM in the past, per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If their recent World Series run allows them to get back into that range or a bit beyond, then they have some money to work with. But the club needs to add some pitching and will have to balance those needs as the offseason continues to develop.

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