Heyman’s Latest: Puig, Turner, Braun, Votto, Weaver, Holliday, Howard, Crawford, Victorino
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag’s latest notes column begins with a lengthy examination of a resilient Dodgers team. He also drops a note on the demoted Yasiel Puig, who is not only demolishing Triple-A pitching, but is drawing great reviews for his attitude. Heyman reported further on Puig earlier today, explaining that the Dodgers have fielded interest in trade talks, but mostly have been spurning efforts by rival organizations to get him on the cheap.
- Speaking of Puig, the division-rival Diamondbacks are said to have engaged in “some brief talks” on the talented 25-year-old. That engagement doesn’t seem to have resulted in any traction, however, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s any reason to believe that there could be a match between the organizations.
- The Dodgers are expected to attempt to bring back third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an incredibly productive player since coming to the organization on a minor league deal in 2014. Heyman does note that Turner’s age (he’ll turn 32 in November) could limit L.A.’s interest in a long-term deal with the pending free agent.
- After Ryan Braun‘s no-trade protection seemingly gummed up any inclination the Brewers may have had to trade him this summer, Heyman writes that the team is expected to explore trade scenarios this winter. Age, cost, injury history, a PED past, and the no-trade rights will make that a complicated proposition, but Braun’s .317/.380/.562 slash line holds obvious appeal.
- The Blue Jays‘ previously reported effort to land Reds first baseman Joey Votto at the 2015 trade deadline may have petered out with the changes in the team’s baseball operations department. But the talks likely would’ve continued had Alex Anthopoulos remained at the helm, says Heyman, and the organization had been prepared to add Votto even after paying big to land Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Per the report, though, the teams never got terribly far down the line in hashing out a deal.
- Angels righty Jered Weaver has already made clear that he isn’t ready to discuss his plans for 2017, when he’ll be a free agent, but Heyman says that some in the organization believe he may retire. The 33-year-old is struggling through his worst season in the majors, with a 5.47 ERA over 138 1/3 innings.
- While the Cardinals and outfielder Matt Holliday seemingly have good cause to continue their productive relationship, it’s far from clear whether the team will be willing to cough up $17MM to exercise its 2017 option. That said, Heyman notes that it’s possible to imagine the sides coming to an alternative arrangement to keep Holliday in St. Louis.
- Heyman also provides some updates on some of the game’s other elder statesmen. Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard is said to be “determined” to continue his career after the all-but-inevitable decision by the Phils to decline the club’s option. Free agent outfielders Carl Crawford and Shane Victorino appear to be eyeing comeback efforts in 2017.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Turner
At one point this year, the magic seemed to have worn off for Justin Turner. Coming off of significant offseason knee surgery, Turner failed to crack a .700 OPS in either of the first two months of the season.
That has all changed, though, as the well-bearded redhead flipped the switch in mid-June and hasn’t looked back. Despite the tepid start, Turner has run his batting line all the way up to .278/.345/.516, good for a composite 130 wRC+ that falls just shy of the big-time numbers he produced in each of the last two seasons.
Turner’s stunning emergence in Los Angeles has been well-documented. At this point, it seems hard to argue with the fact that the 31-year-old is simply one of the league’s better hitters. In some ways, in fact, he is improving. While maintaining his low-strikeout approach, Turner has steadily enhanced his power. While his 2014 breakout was fueled in part by a .404 BABIP, he hit only seven home runs. Through 464 plate appearances in the current campaign, Turner has already left the yard 23 times and owns a .237 isolated slugging mark that sits just ahead of players like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano on the league leaderboard.
The increase in home runs corresponds both to a jump up in Turner’s flyball rate (now 43.3%) and HR/FB rate (15.5%), and is supported by a 39.5% hard-hit ball rate. Meanwhile, over the last two years, Turner has made soft contact on only about a dozen out of one hundred balls he puts in play. Those figures put him among the twenty best makers of contact in the game this season, and Turner’s overall offensive productivity also sits comfortably within the top twenty dating back to the start of his tenure in Los Angeles.
That’s impressive enough on its own, but Turner also rates as a high-quality defender. He has consistently drawn above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR has gone from rating him as slightly above average to valuing him as a top-quality gloveman at the hot corner in 2016. A second baseman earlier in his career, Turner could conceivably move around the diamond with another organization, though given his injury history and strong performance at third it seems most likely he’ll stay there.
Really, at this point, questions about Turner’s knee, his relatively advanced age, and a near-certain qualifying offer are really the only limitations on his market. Microfracture surgery is no small thing, and it seems at least that the procedure had some impact on his slow start this year. While his performance over the last two months seemingly quells any near-term concerns, teams weighing multi-year commitments will certainly take a close look at the odds of a recurring problem.
There will be some other quality options available to teams pursuing help at third base. Luis Valbuena, Martin Prado and David Freese are all enjoying fine seasons, and could certainly stake a claim to signing on for everyday roles. Still, it’s hard to argue that any approach Turner, who has clearly been the superior player not only this year but over the last three campaigns.
In terms of contract expectations, the older Ben Zobrist achieved four years and $56MM last year despite carrying a somewhat less impressive immediate track record — both at the plate and in the field. Even Chase Headley achieved a fourth year, taking home a total $52MM commitment, though he was a year younger. While the Daniel Murphy contract, three years and $37.5MM, sets an even lower price (albeit for a second baseman), his big second half of 2015 hadn’t yet been validated by the monster season he is currently having and the glove wasn’t nearly the asset that Turner’s is.
On the high side, the signings of Adrian Beltre (5/$80MM) and Pablo Sandoval (5/$95MM) may establish the upper limits of what Turner could seek. The latter was significantly younger when he signed, and probably represents an unrealistic price point. But the Beltre contract may be more relevant than it seems at first glance. He was entering his age-32 season at the time, just like Turner will be, and was coming off of the same type of season that Turner has now turned in for three years running. While Beltre’s glove gave him a higher floor, his immediate offensive history was actually quite a bit less impressive than Turner’s has been.
Precisely what kind of deal Turner will be able to command will still depend upon how his season ends, along with a whole host of other factors that are largely unknown at this point. And the Dodgers could yet decide to make a last-minute effort at an extension, though we’ve really heard nothing to suggest that’s likely. Regardless of how things proceed from here, it’s clear that Turner has more than made up for the value dip he experienced earlier this year. His stock is firmly on the rise as the open market nears.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Notes: Seager, Maeda, Turner, Guerrero
Corey Seager has the eighth highest trade value in baseball, opines Sports Illustrated’s Jonah Keri in his annual review of the top assets in the sport. In recent years, Seager was a popular trade target for teams attempting to sell veterans to the Dodgers. For example, their decision to keep Seager rather than trade him (and others) for former Phillies ace Cole Hamels already looks brilliant. Hamels was ranked 39th last year and fell out of the top 50 this year. While nobody would argue that Seager is better than Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (ranked 21), his superior contract situation and youth make him a superior long term bet. Top pitching prospect Julio Urias (43rd) also made the list.
Here’s more from the Dodgers:
- Japanese import Kenta Maeda made his Cactus League debut today, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. His performance today (he did well) is hardly relevant, but Maeda has already taken on an important role in the team’s success. With Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy set to miss chunks of the 2016 season, the Dodgers’ pitching depth will be tested. Maeda’s performance will help to determine how the favored Dodgers perform in a wide open NL West.
- Third baseman Justin Turner may return to game action as early as next week, writes Gurnick. Manager Dave Roberts would ease him back, using him as the designated hitter for a time. Turner had microfracture surgery over the offseason. A return to action next week would put him well ahead of the usual recovery timeline. Players like Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore had to ease back in to regular reps over a long period of time, although Turner’s specific situation may differ from theirs.
- One of Turner’s third base backups, Alex Guerrero, has been sidelined with a sore left knee, per Gurnick. The team does not believe the injury is serious, and they have not even ordered tests. The Dodgers have struggled to find Guerrero a regular role due to poor defensive chops at second base and an inconsistent bat. Should Turner and Guerrero both miss time, options to fill in at third include Howie Kendrick and Chase Utley.
NL West Notes: Rockies, Bumgarner, Turner
Here’s the latest from the National League West:
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discussed his club’s approach this winter with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The club’s top baseball decisionmaker didn’t shy away from acknowledging that the team focused on adding big arms to the relief corps, as even the signing of Gerardo Parra functioning as a prequel to an eventual trade of Corey Dickerson for power lefty Jake McGee. “We have added powerful, impactful arms to our bullpen,” Bridich explains. “There is no secret that pitching talent has to get bigger, stronger and better. Not everybody works out, of course, but we have set out to focus on this, and I think it’s been a fairly consistent philosophy.”
- Meanwhile, Saunders writes in response to a fan question that he’s not sure he agrees with the decision to part with Dickerson to add McGee. It’s encouraging to see some action, says Saunders, but odd for Colorado to give up a fairly high-upside, controllable hitter in exchange two years of a reliever given the team’s current roster situation. Ultimately, he writes, the organization ought to choose a direction, but “‘rebuilding’ seems to be a dirty word at 20th and Blake.”
- Giants ace Madison Bumgarner isn’t quite paid up to his ability under the pre-arb extension he signed back in 2012, but he said today that he’s not worried about his earnings. As Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com reports, the celebrated southpaw is taking the long view: “If everything goes the way I want and what I work for, then that’ll come along in due time,” he said. “I’m not at all worried about that. When I signed my deal I knew what I wanted to do, but you never know what’s going to happen. I was prepared for that.”
- Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner will be looking to bounce back from microfracture surgery this spring, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. Turner says he is progressing well and believes the prognosis to be good, as his procedure was performed in a portion of the knee that doesn’t carry weight. Of course, it remains to be seen how heavily the 31-year-old will be pushed both in camp and early in the season, and Los Angeles has lined up multiple depth options behind him. It’s an important season for the pending free agent, who has been a revelation in L.A. and could profile as a major free agent with another strong campaign.
Dodgers Notes: Scully, Kendrick, Utley, Turner
Fans of Dodgers broadcasting legend Vin Scully will be glad to hear that he plans to work a few road games this season, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Scully hopes to cover the end-of-season series in San Francisco as well as games in San Diego and Anaheim. The 87-year-old will retire after the season. As the only remaining solo broadcaster in the majors, Scully is entering his 67th season in booth. He was recently in the news after Los Angeles legislators decided to name a street after him.
Here’s more from the Dodgers:
- Newly installed manager Dave Roberts says Howie Kendrick is willing to play some third base, tweets Andy McCullough of the LA Times. Kendrick re-signed with the Dodgers yesterday on a two-year, $20MM contract. His addition creates something of a logjam in the infield with Kendrick, Chase Utley, Enrique Hernandez, and others in the mix for reps at second base. While all three players might get a shot at the hot corner, Justin Turner is currently penciled in as the starter there (more on him in moment). The depth should be highly useful to the club, but they’ll have to work hard to find time for everybody.
- For his part, Utley still expects to split his time between second, third, and first base, writes Gurnick. When the Dodgers signed Utley, there was no expectation they might re-sign Kendrick. The recent move has likely cut into the opportunities for Utley.
- However, third baseman Turner had offseason microfracture surgery for his left knee. Apparently, his recovery will force the club to move slowly with him at the start of the year. That should open an early season opportunity for Utley. Per Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (via Twitter), Turner is optimistic about an Opening Day return. Even so, he probably won’t be ready for an everyday role.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Frazier, Turner
Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda has traveled to Los Angeles to start meeting with teams, according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter). The Dodgers, he adds, are expected to be among the clubs that place a bid in order to negotiate with the right-hander.
If the Dodgers are serious about making a run at the Hiroshima Carp star, they might find that the market for him isn’t as competitive as it might have been a few weeks ago. We learned last week that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price. At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.
Here’s more out of L.A.:
- Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters, including Shaikin (Twitter link) that he didn’t land Todd Frazier himself because he wanted Justin Turner to remain at third base. Acquiring Frazier and putting him elsewhere on the diamond would have been “messy,” in Friedman’s estimation. Frazier, of course, went to the White Sox in Wednesday’s three-way deal involving the Reds and Dodgers.
- Friedman says that the Dodgers like the newly-acquired Frankie Montas as a starting pitcher and, if not, they see him as an “impact bullpen arm,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Many scouts see Montas as a power reliever. Friedman says that his scouts believe that Montas has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the minors, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets.
- Friedman said he knows some teams are interested in the players he acquired today, but he cautioned that one trade is not necessarily precursor to another, Shaikin tweets. Still, when asked if he’s now more comfortable with the idea of parting with elite pitching prospects, Friedman answered in the affirmative (link).
- In an interview on KLAC, Friedman did acknowledge that the trade improves the team’s “trade capital to match up with other teams,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).
NL West Notes: Gallardo, Miller, Turner, Hill
The Braves are reportedly fairly deep into talks with an NL West club about a trade. As we wait for more details on that story to unfold, here are some notes from around the division…
- The Diamondbacks are among the clubs with interest in right-hander Yovani Gallardo, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). Gallardo is one of a plethora of mid-tier arms that’s available on this year’s free agent market, however he will cost a draft pick in order to sign, and Arizona’s record in 2015 left them with the third-highest unprotected pick (No. 13 overall). That’s a steep price to pay for a mid-rotation arm, though that won’t necessarily stop the club from signing a free agent that rejected a QO. Arizona is just one of many clubs to show interest in Gallardo, per Heyman.
- Likewise, the D-Backs have inquired on Yankees closer Andrew Miller, whose name has been floated in trade talks, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Talks didn’t progress to the point where any names were exchanged, Rosenthal adds, so the inquiry seems to be preliminary in nature. The D-Backs have a surplus of young infielders and also have plenty of young starting pitching that could entice the Yankees, though the asking price on Miller would undoubtedly be exorbitant.
- Justin Turner‘s recent knee surgery was a bit more complicated than initially believed, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Miller was said at the time to be having loose bodies removed from his knee, but the Dodgers third baseman tells Hernandez that he also had a microfracture procedure performed. Miller explained that a piece of cartilage tore off the outside portion of his knee, and in order to facilitate the growth of new cartilage, surgeons drilled into the knee allowing blood to refill the area where cartilage once was. Turner said he’ll be on crutches for two to four more weeks and running at 100 percent in three months’ time. He expects to be 100 percent healthy by Spring Training.
- The Padres are one of many teams interested in left-hander Rich Hill, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Hill, 35, is drawing quite a bit of interest after a surprisingly dominant run to close out the regular season with the Red Sox. The journeyman logged a dazzling 1.55 ERA with a 36-to-5 K/BB ratio in 29 innings for the Sox and should secure a big league contract, with many clubs likely believing him to be a reasonably low-cost upside play.
Quick Hits: Turner, Beane, Cumpton, Reed
Justin Turner‘s rise is one of the game’s underplayed stories. Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports writes that the minor league free agent-turned-star is loving life with the Dodgers. The picture painted is one of a player whose success and positivity have fed more of the same. As I explained recently, Turner looks to be a possible extension candidate this winter.
Here are some more stray notes from around the league:
- If the Athletics follow through on their reported plans to promote Billy Beane, he’ll take a position akin to that of Tony La Russa’s with the D’backs, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains (Twitter links). Club president Michael Crowley will remain in his current role, says Rosenthal. It’s still somewhat unclear exactly how day-to-day responsibilities would change from the present arrangement, but the GM title is reportedly likely to go to assistant GM David Forst.
- Pirates‘ right-hander Brandon Cumpton entered the 2014 season as the organization’s 11th-best prospect, in the eyes of Baseball America, but has seen injuries derail his career since. After undergoing Tommy John surgery already in 2015, Cumpton has now had a “right shoulder subacromial decompression” procedure performed, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (Twitter links). In addition to raising concerns in another area of his arm, that will bump his recovery time to 13-15 months away.
- Though some Astros fans want to see the team give a late-season call-up to fast-rising prospect A.J. Reed, that’s almost certainly not going to happen, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Reed has had an excellent season, but only reached Double-A for the second half and does not need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason.
Extension Candidate: Justin Turner
Every winter, we cover a host of seemingly minor signings — veteran utility players, swingmen, platoon outfielders, etc. — as teams fill out their rosters by adding depth and competition in areas of uncertainty. It’s unusual for such deals to have truly significant impact.
But minor league signings can be hugely important. The Tigers, for instance, have rightly received ample attention for their immensely beneficial decision to bring in late-blooming slugger J.D. Martinez, who engineered a hard-to-predict turnaround through carefully thought-out changes in his swing mechanics and approach.
As good as Martinez has been, though, there’s an argument to be made that Justin Turner was the more insightful breakout signing of the winter of 2014. Turner languished on the market until February, when the Dodgers — then still under the command of Ned Colletti — swooped in with a minor league deal that ultimately paid out just $1MM.
At the time, Turner was a 29-year-old utility infielder who carried an approximately league-average batting line. He profiled as a solid-enough defender at third who delivered usable, but inferior, glovework up the middle.
It looked like a nice get for the Dodgers, who committed nothing but a spring invite, but hardly seemed a game-changing addition. With two more years of arb control, there was some added value since Los Angeles effectively picked up option years at values that would be dictated by his performance.
What seemed to be solid value has turned into an unbelievable bargain. Over 672 plate appearances in Dodger blue, Turner owns a .314/.379/.501 slash line with 22 home runs and eight stolen bases. There were some questions whether he could keep things up this year after posting a .404 BABIP in 2014, but Turner has thrived by increasing his power output even as his batting average on balls in play has fallen back to normal levels.
It’s questionable, to be sure, whether he can maintain the power surge that has pushed his isolated slugging mark to over .200. Turner’s 15.6% home run per flyball rate in 2015 may be unsustainable — that’s a career-best by a significant margin — but he has obviously learned something about driving the ball that seems likely to stick. Building off improvements in his contact profile that were evident in his 2013 numbers with the Mets, the 2015 version of Turner makes hard contact in approximately one third of his plate appearances while generating the same soft contact rate (10.8%) as Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera.
On the defensive side of the ledger, Turner continues to receive fairly poor defensive metrics when playing at second and short. But he’s spent most of his time at the hot corner, and both UZR and Defensive Runs saved value him as an above-average defender there over the last two years.
Needless to say, the aggregate package is quite good. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference credit Turner with about 6.5 to 7 wins above replacement since the start of 2014. That’s all the more impressive given his somewhat limited plate appearances — he was a part-timer last year and missed time with injury this year — meaning it was accrued in about a full season’s worth of regular playing time. And it’s not as if Turner has succeeded because he’s been limited to situations with the platoon advantage; he’s actually delivered significantly better numbers against right-handed pitching this season and over his career.
It’s not clear whether the Dodgers’ new front office will pursue a new deal with Turner, but this coming offseason presents an obvious opportunity to do so. Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley will all be free agents after this year, assuming the team declines Utley’s option. While the organization has some immediate options — Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez, and Jose Peraza chief among them — none have had the chance to establish themselves fully at the big league level. Hector Olivera, of course, has already been cleared out of the picture with a mid-season trade.
From Turner’s perspective, too, there are some good reasons to consider such an arrangement. He earned a relatively meager $2.5MM in 2015, and will be in line for a significant raise. But Turner will still be a great value for next season, will remain a year away from the open market, and will then be signing in advance of his age-32 season.
If the sides choose to chat, it will be difficult to find comparable players. Late-career breakouts are hardly unheard of, but even premium players such as Jose Bautista and Corey Kluber have signed extensions at rather reasonable prices with shorter track records to work from.
And there is one obvious comp: Martin Prado, a similarly-profiling defender, who inked a four-year, $40MM pact with the Diamondbacks the winter before he would have reached free agency. Prado was then entering his age-29 season and had a longer history of good offensive production and strong defensive work around the field. But he was also just one year removed from a down season and had not shown the same offensive ceiling that Turner has established.
All told, that contract seems to provide a useful starting point for talks between the Dodgers and Turner’s representatives at the Legacy Agency. Of course, whether or not an extension can be reached (or will even be pursued) depends on the motivations of all involved, but a big new contract for Turner seems a reasonably plausible scenario.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.