Justin Turner

Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner Will Reject Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2016 at 10:51am CDT

Continuing with this morning’s trend of unsurprising qualifying offer decisions, Dodgers stars Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner will reject the team’s qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweeted as much at the time that each QO was extended in the first place. Each of the two should find at least a four-year deal on the free-agent market, and we pegged the them both for five-year contracts when ranking them in the top five on our list of the top 50 free agents.

The 29-year-old Jansen logged a brilliant 1.83 ERA with 13.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 30 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. Since making his big league debut at the age of 22, the converted minor league catcher has never posted a single-season ERA greater than 2.85, nor has he averaged fewer than 13 strikeouts per nine innings. Over the past four years, Jansen has a 2.19 ERA with a ridiculous 396-to-56 K/BB ratio in 263 innings of work. He potentially added to his value with a Herculean postseason performance for the Dodgers, recovering from an early hiccup to turn in three appearances of two shutout innings or more. Jansen threw 51 pitches in 2 1/3 scoreless innings in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS, registering a hold that set up Clayton Kershaw’s memorable save. In Game 6 of the NLCS, he fired three perfect innings of relief with four strikeouts in a losing effort. That demonstration of his ability to work multiple innings effectively in the highest-leverage spots possible makes him all the more appealing as a free agent.

Turner, meanwhile, has blossomed into a superstar-caliber talent in three years with the Dodgers after being non-tendered by the Mets and signing a minor league deal in L.A. The 31-year-old (32 next week) has batted .296/.364/.492 in his three seasons with the Dodgers, demonstrating improved power in each year, which culminated with a career-high 27 homers in 2016. That impressive total was accompanied by 34 doubles and three triples, giving him 64 extra-base hits in 622 plate appearances. Turner also registered elite defense at third base this year, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (+7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+14) in 1224 innings at the hot corner. Although he’s a bit older than the typical free-agent position player, a four-year deal seems easily attainable, and five years is possible for Turner. Ben Zobrist, after all, inked a four-year, $56MM deal last offseason that began with his age-35 season, and Turner’s age-35 season would be the fourth year of a theoretical multi-year pact.

The Dodgers have reportedly been in contact with both Jansen and Turner about new contracts already, though the Giants, Yankees, Cubs and Nationals are all expected to be in the mix for Jansen this offseason as well. The Dodgers will collect a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round next year if either signs with a new team and a pair of picks if both sign elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Rumors: Hill, Dodgers, Napoli, Logan, Braves, Hwang

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2016 at 3:31pm CDT

There’s a flurry of offseason rumors flying about Twitter in the early stages of free agency and with the General Managers Meetings taking place in Arizona at the moment. Much of the talk is preliminary at this juncture, and many of the names connected to teams in the early-going won’t ultimately be targets in the long run. That said, the GM Meetings can certainly provide a forum to lay the groundwork for future free-agent deals and trades, and we even see the occasional big-name signing there (as was the case with Victor Martinez re-signing with the Tigers prior to the 2015 season). Here’s a rundown of all the latest free-agent chatter…

Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters that he plans to reach out to the representatives for free agent left-hander Rich Hill (Twitter link via NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty). Cashman stressed that he’s planning to meet with the reps for a large number of free agents, but the Yankees have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Hill, who seems likely to cash in on a significant free agent deal this winter less than 18 months removed from a stint pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. MLBTR ranked Hill 14th among free agents and pegged him for a three-year, $50MM deal.
The Dodgers will also be in the mix for Hill, tweets Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times, and they’re having dialogue with his representatives as well as those for free agents Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. The Dodgers already made qualifying offers to both Jansen and Turner, though it’s a no-brainer for each to reject in search of a more lucrative deal. It’d be somewhat of a surprise if the Dodgers let all three of their big-name free agents sign elsewhere this winter, although re-signing all three doesn’t seem to be an especially likely outcome, either.
Mike Napoli is drawing early interest from the Mariners, tweets Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. As Morosi points out, Napoli has a good history with Seattle manager Scott Servais dating back to his Rangers days. Napoli would be a logical fit for the M’s, who project to have the unproven Dan Vogelbach as their starting first baseman next year. However, the possibility of an eventual timeshare situation developing between the two may not be palatable from Napoli’s vantage point, I wouldn’t think. And it would seem strange for the Mariners to part with a controllable lefty like Mike Montgomery to acquire Vogelbach only to block him a few months later by giving Napoli the everyday first base gig.
Morosi also tweets that left-hander Boone Logan is generating some early interest, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman hears the same. Morosi notes that the Blue Jays and Giants both had interest in Logan at the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, though the Rockies elected not to trade him. Toronto, in particular, could probably use some left-handed relief help, as it was an area of weakness for them for much of the 2016 and they now stand to lose Brett Cecil to the open market. The 32-year-old Logan is probably best deployed as a lefty specialist, which may limit his market a bit, but he excels in that area. Logan held lefties to a putrid .142/.222/.255 slash in 2016 and a .225/.349/.254 slash in 2015.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that if the Braves are to sign a new catcher this winter, the likeliest targets are Jason Castro and Nick Hundley. Bowman tabs Wilson Ramos as a long shot and says he’d only land in Atlanta if his asking price declined significantly. Also per Bowman, Atlanta has never seemed all that interested in pursuing former Georgia Tech star Matt Wieters. Castro would give the Braves another strong defender and a left-handed bat to complement the right-handed bat of Tyler Flowers. Hundley, meanwhile, would be more of an offensive-minded backstop for the Braves.
Korean third-baseman Jae-gyun Hwang will host a showcase for interested teams in Florida on Nov. 21, tweets Morosi. The 29-year-old didn’t draw a bid when posted last offseason but delivered another very strong season in the KBO this year. Hwang hit a career-best 27 homers and posted a .335/.394/.570 line with dramatically improved K/BB numbers in 2016 and could be a relatively low-cost option at the hot corner this winter.

Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2016 at 4:06pm CDT

Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
Neil Walker, Mets (link)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

Heyman’s Latest: Schwarber, Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 8:38am CDT

There’s a “very real” possibility slugger Kyle Schwarber will be able to contribute for the World Series-bound Cubs in their matchup with the Indians, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Schwarber has been out since early April after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, but, as the Cubs were in the midst of defeating the Dodgers to clinch their first pennant since 1945, the 23-year-old returned to action Saturday in the Arizona Fall League. Schwarber accrued four plate appearances and said afterward that “it was overall a really great day for me” (via Jack Thompson of the Chicago Tribune). If Schwarber does return for the World Series, the player whom Cubs baseball president of baseball operations Theo Epstein deems a “special talent” could factor in as a DH and pinch-hitter.

Dodgers Notes: Chapman, Turner, Jansen, Grandal

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2016 at 9:00am CDT

The Dodgers’ decision to back out of last December’s agreed-upon Aroldis Chapman trade wasn’t solely the mandate of ownership but was a collective consensus between the baseball operations staff and the ownership group, writes Jon Heyman in his latest notes column at FanRag Sports. By the time the baseball operations staff reached out to managing partner Mark Walter about the domestic violence allegations with which Chapman was faced, they’d already decided the deal should no longer be pursued, and Walter agreed. Heyman also adds that the three prospects that would’ve gone to Cincinnati in that deal ultimately wound up in the Reds organization anyhow, as the proposed package was Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon for Chapman. Those three all went to the Reds in the three-team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers received Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson and Frankie Montas from the Sox in that deal.)

A few more notes on the Dodgers…

Heyman also reports that there have been some “very preliminary contract talks” between the Dodgers and impending free agent Justin Turner, though there’s been nothing serious enough to indicate that Turner will forgo the open market this winter. Turner has said he’d love to remain with the Dodgers, but on the heels of a monster season, he should find widespread demand for his services. The 31-year-old (32 in November) batted .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers in 151 games this season and erased a dreadful first April/May with a torrid four-month stretch to close out the season. He also grades out as a premium defender at the hot corner, all of which contributed to his 4.9 rWAR and 5.6 fWAR in 2016. He’s also been a brilliant performer thus far in his short postseason career, hitting .405/.519/.667 in 52 plate appearances. While that doesn’t necessarily do much for his free-agent stock, it certainly can’t hurt him and figures to be brought up by his agents as they seek the best deal possible for their client this winter.
Manager Dave Roberts tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he told Kenley Jansen before the 2016 season even began that he planned to get him at least a half-dozen outings in which he pitched more than one inning over the life of the regular season as a means for preparing him for the postseason, and that indeed played out. Jansen was also candid with Rosenthal in explaining that he felt his trust was betrayed when former GM Ned Colletti signed Brandon League to a three-year deal in the wake of Jansen being diagnosed with and treated for an irregular heartbeat. He didn’t mind the possibility of the Dodgers adding Chapman this winter, stressing that he only asked that Friedman be up front with him about what might happen. And it should be noted that former teammate A.J. Ellis also spoke to Rosenthal about how frank Jansen is when discussing free agency. Ellis compared him to Zack Greinke in some respects, noting that Jansen feels he’s earned his one opportunity at a lucrative free-agent deal and figures to go to the highest bidder.
Yasmani Grandal’s struggles at the plate this postseason are reminiscent of his offensive woes last year in the playoffs, after which he underwent shoulder surgery, but the catcher tells Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times that he’s not injured this time around. Grandal isn’t letting his lack of offense so far get to him, as he clearly laid out to Moura that his priorities are his defensive work/game-calling behind the plate, then drawing walks, then slugging at the plate. “I’m hitting seventh, and there’s a reason why they have me hitting seventh,” he said. “They want me to make sure I run the pitching staff like it’s supposed to be ran.” Grandal also talked about his frequent visits to the mound this October, explaining that the Dodgers are keenly aware of which players on opposing teams can relay signs to hitters at the plate when they’re standing on second base.

Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, Puig-Braun, CarGo, Cespedes, EE, Santana, Red Sox, Mariners

By Jeff Todd | September 15, 2016 at 8:33pm CDT

Dodgers righty Kenley Jansen says he is grateful to the team for all it has done for him, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports, but notes that he fully intends to explore the open market this winter. “We’ll have to see what’s good for the family,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough decision. It’s not going to only be me.” Infielder Justin Turner, meanwhile, says he’d “love to stay” in Los Angeles, as Heyman provides in his weekly notes column. Both figure to be targets for the Dodgers in free agency, but also ought to draw wide-ranging interest from other organizations.

Here are some of the other highlights from Heyman’s latest post:

Heyman pushes back on recent reports suggesting that the Dodgers nearly shipped Yasiel Puig to the Brewers as part of a package to acquire Ryan Braun. A source tells him that “there was a lot of dialogue but [a swap] was never close.” Regardless, it seems that there’s still merit to the idea that the teams could revisit the scenario this winter.
“No great offers” emerged last winter for Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, according to the report. But Colorado may be wise to shop him again in a few months, Heyman writes, as the team’s glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders could represent an opportunity to improve in other areas. Gonzalez is hitting a productive .300/.350/.523, even if it is aided by playing at Coors Field, and is owed a reasonable $37MM over the next two seasons. It’s worth noting, too, that the club could potentially not only turn that contract into some intriguing, younger assets, but would also free up a good bit of payroll space to deploy on the open market.
The upcoming market for free agents is obviously short on star power, but Heyman provides some preliminary guesses on the contracts for the top players. He suggests four years and $100MM for Yoenis Cespedes of the Mets as the biggest deal that could be had (assuming, as seems likely, that he’ll opt out of his deal). From my perspective, another star campaign from Cespedes has likely boosted his market beyond that level. The Cuban slugger rates as the top overall free agent on the free agent power ranking of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.
Edwin Encarnacion of the Blue Jays is fourth on Dierkes’s most recent list — he rates Aroldis Chapman and Jansen higher — while Heyman rates him second to Cespedes. But the veteran slugger is headed for a monster contract regardless, and Heyman notes that the continued belief around the game is that Toronto won’t extend itself to retain him. Instead, the Jays seem to be angling to put together a younger roster.
Whether Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons is interested in staying on with more change possibly afoot remains to be seen, but Heyman says that the club has been impressed with his work. An internal team source suggests that the team will attempt to retain him — at least as long as a postseason berth is secured — and sources with ties to the skipper say that he likely prefers to stick in the position rather than hunting for another opportunity elsewhere.
Carlos Santana is highly likely to return to the Indians, per the report. His $12MM club option is a “no-brainer” for the club, a source says. The 30-year-old never seemed very likely to be allowed to test the market: he carries a .243/.353/.471 batting line with 31 long balls and has struck out only one time more than he has walked thus far in 2016.
The Red Sox are expected to pursue relief help on the upcoming free agent market, Heyman says. That’s not surprising to hear, of course, as depth and quality have both been in question at times and the team is set to watch pitchers such as Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa depart via free agency.
With a group of talented, high-performing players on hand, the Mariners are “talking behind the scenes” about taking advantage of a window of contention, according to Heyman. That could position the club to strike out on the free agent market in search of a “complementary piece,” he says. There are several areas the team could target, but I wonder whether the time may be right to add a slugging first baseman; there are several available, and the team is set to lose its primary tandem of Adam Lind and Dae-ho Lee to free agency.

Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, McCann, Napoli, Ichiro, Colon, Price

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | September 1, 2016 at 6:52pm CDT

The Dodgers intend to pursue reunions with at least four prominent free agents, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Excellent third baseman Justin Turner, relief ace Kenley Jansen, late-breaking lefty Rich Hill, and veteran second baseman Chase Utley would all hold interest to Los Angeles, per the report, though age considerations and the presence of internal alternatives could limit the club’s willingness to top the market for those players. The 28-year-old Jansen may be the highest priority among this group, Heyman suggests. While the Dodgers haven’t exactly broken the bank on relief arms under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, it seems Jansen could warrant an exception given his unbelievable performance level. All said, Heyman suggests it would be surprising if L.A. doesn’t bring back at least two of those four players.

Here are some more of Heyman’s latest notes, from his weekly column:

The Braves and Yankees have tabled any talks pertaining to catcher Brian McCann until the offseason, which may not bode well for New York’s chances to trade him to Atlanta. Heyman writes that the Braves have interest in Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and top free agent catcher Wilson Ramos, whom they’d love to snatch away from the division-rival Nationals. Atlanta is willing to pay half of the remaining $34MM McCann is owed from 2017-18. They’re also looking to add a rotation piece for 2017 and beyond, if not two, as a number of their top-ranked minor league arms are still a ways off from the Majors (which, of course, could make them appealing trade chips in an offseason where the free agent market is devoid of talented starters).
Mike Napoli, who is enjoying a rebound season at the plate with the Indians, has said he’d like to remain in Cleveland, though the two sides aren’t engaged in talks. Napoli’s defense and baserunning have torpedoed his WAR totals, but he’s batted a well-above-average .259/.345/.494 with 29 home runs in his first season with Cleveland. His bat should draw plenty of interest this winter despite the fact that he’ll turn 35 on Halloween.
Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki hopes to play again in 2017 and would like to stay in Miami, per the report. With his club option valued at only $2MM, that may be a fairly easy pick-up for the organization. Playing in his age-42 season in 2016, Ichiro has compiled a useful .294/.365/.366 batting line over 296 plate appearances, continues to rate as an average or better fielder and overall baserunner, and has even cracked double-digit stolen bases for the 16th-straight season.
Another aging veteran who intends to continue his career, says Heyman, is Mets righty Bartolo Colon. It’s not yet clear how his market will develop — we don’t know what level of interest New York will have, or whether the 43-year-old will be looking for multiple years — but there certainly ought to be ample interest given that Colon has provided 158 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA pitching thus far in 2016. Even if the peripherals don’t quite line up with those bottom-line results, he’ll be among the more durable and effective pitchers available on a forthcoming seller’s market for starters.
There’s no sense that the Reds are interested in making a change at manager, Heyman says. Skipper Bryan Price’s contract does expire after the year, but with some positive signs in the second half — excluding a current four-game skid, at least — it seems he could be retained.

Heyman’s Latest: Puig, Turner, Braun, Votto, Weaver, Holliday, Howard, Crawford, Victorino

By Jeff Todd | August 25, 2016 at 8:45pm CDT

Jon Heyman of Fan Rag’s latest notes column begins with a lengthy examination of a resilient Dodgers team. He also drops a note on the demoted Yasiel Puig, who is not only demolishing Triple-A pitching, but is drawing great reviews for his attitude. Heyman reported further on Puig earlier today, explaining that the Dodgers have fielded interest in trade talks, but mostly have been spurning efforts by rival organizations to get him on the cheap.

Speaking of Puig, the division-rival Diamondbacks are said to have engaged in “some brief talks” on the talented 25-year-old. That engagement doesn’t seem to have resulted in any traction, however, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s any reason to believe that there could be a match between the organizations.
The Dodgers are expected to attempt to bring back third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an incredibly productive player since coming to the organization on a minor league deal in 2014. Heyman does note that Turner’s age (he’ll turn 32 in November) could limit L.A.’s interest in a long-term deal with the pending free agent.
After Ryan Braun’s no-trade protection seemingly gummed up any inclination the Brewers may have had to trade him this summer, Heyman writes that the team is expected to explore trade scenarios this winter. Age, cost, injury history, a PED past, and the no-trade rights will make that a complicated proposition, but Braun’s .317/.380/.562 slash line holds obvious appeal.
The Blue Jays’ previously reported effort to land Reds first baseman Joey Votto at the 2015 trade deadline may have petered out with the changes in the team’s baseball operations department. But the talks likely would’ve continued had Alex Anthopoulos remained at the helm, says Heyman, and the organization had been prepared to add Votto even after paying big to land Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Per the report, though, the teams never got terribly far down the line in hashing out a deal.
Angels righty Jered Weaver has already made clear that he isn’t ready to discuss his plans for 2017, when he’ll be a free agent, but Heyman says that some in the organization believe he may retire. The 33-year-old is struggling through his worst season in the majors, with a 5.47 ERA over 138 1/3 innings.
While the Cardinals and outfielder Matt Holliday seemingly have good cause to continue their productive relationship, it’s far from clear whether the team will be willing to cough up $17MM to exercise its 2017 option. That said, Heyman notes that it’s possible to imagine the sides coming to an alternative arrangement to keep Holliday in St. Louis.
Heyman also provides some updates on some of the game’s other elder statesmen. Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard is said to be “determined” to continue his career after the all-but-inevitable decision by the Phils to decline the club’s option. Free agent outfielders Carl Crawford and Shane Victorino appear to be eyeing comeback efforts in 2017.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Turner

By Jeff Todd | August 20, 2016 at 8:30am CDT

At one point this year, the magic seemed to have worn off for Justin Turner. Coming off of significant offseason knee surgery, Turner failed to crack a .700 OPS in either of the first two months of the season.

That has all changed, though, as the well-bearded redhead flipped the switch in mid-June and hasn’t looked back. Despite the tepid start, Turner has run his batting line all the way up to .278/.345/.516, good for a composite 130 wRC+ that falls just shy of the big-time numbers he produced in each of the last two seasons.

Turner’s stunning emergence in Los Angeles has been well-documented. At this point, it seems hard to argue with the fact that the 31-year-old is simply one of the league’s better hitters. In some ways, in fact, he is improving. While maintaining his low-strikeout approach, Turner has steadily enhanced his power. While his 2014 breakout was fueled in part by a .404 BABIP, he hit only seven home runs. Through 464 plate appearances in the current campaign, Turner has already left the yard 23 times and owns a .237 isolated slugging mark that sits just ahead of players like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano on the league leaderboard.

The increase in home runs corresponds both to a jump up in Turner’s flyball rate (now 43.3%) and HR/FB rate (15.5%), and is supported by a 39.5% hard-hit ball rate. Meanwhile, over the last two years, Turner has made soft contact on only about a dozen out of one hundred balls he puts in play. Those figures put him among the twenty best makers of contact in the game this season, and Turner’s overall offensive productivity also sits comfortably within the top twenty dating back to the start of his tenure in Los Angeles.

That’s impressive enough on its own, but Turner also rates as a high-quality defender. He has consistently drawn above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR has gone from rating him as slightly above average to valuing him as a top-quality gloveman at the hot corner in 2016. A second baseman earlier in his career, Turner could conceivably move around the diamond with another organization, though given his injury history and strong performance at third it seems most likely he’ll stay there.

Really, at this point, questions about Turner’s knee, his relatively advanced age, and a near-certain qualifying offer are really the only limitations on his market. Microfracture surgery is no small thing, and it seems at least that the procedure had some impact on his slow start this year. While his performance over the last two months seemingly quells any near-term concerns, teams weighing multi-year commitments will certainly take a close look at the odds of a recurring problem.

There will be some other quality options available to teams pursuing help at third base. Luis Valbuena, Martin Prado and David Freese are all enjoying fine seasons, and could certainly stake a claim to signing on for everyday roles. Still, it’s hard to argue that any approach Turner, who has clearly been the superior player not only this year but over the last three campaigns.

In terms of contract expectations, the older Ben Zobrist achieved four years and $56MM last year despite carrying a somewhat less impressive immediate track record — both at the plate and in the field. Even Chase Headley achieved a fourth year, taking home a total $52MM commitment, though he was a year younger. While the Daniel Murphy contract, three years and $37.5MM, sets an even lower price (albeit for a second baseman), his big second half of 2015 hadn’t yet been validated by the monster season he is currently having and the glove wasn’t nearly the asset that Turner’s is.

On the high side, the signings of Adrian Beltre (5/$80MM) and Pablo Sandoval (5/$95MM) may establish the upper limits of what Turner could seek. The latter was significantly younger when he signed, and probably represents an unrealistic price point. But the Beltre contract may be more relevant than it seems at first glance. He was entering his age-32 season at the time, just like Turner will be, and was coming off of the same type of season that Turner has now turned in for three years running. While Beltre’s glove gave him a higher floor, his immediate offensive history was actually quite a bit less impressive than Turner’s has been.

Precisely what kind of deal Turner will be able to command will still depend upon how his season ends, along with a whole host of other factors that are largely unknown at this point. And the Dodgers could yet decide to make a last-minute effort at an extension, though we’ve really heard nothing to suggest that’s likely. Regardless of how things proceed from here, it’s clear that Turner has more than made up for the value dip he experienced earlier this year. His stock is firmly on the rise as the open market nears.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers Notes: Seager, Maeda, Turner, Guerrero

By | March 5, 2016 at 8:55pm CDT

Corey Seager has the eighth highest trade value in baseball, opines Sports Illustrated’s Jonah Keri in his annual review of the top assets in the sport. In recent years, Seager was a popular trade target for teams attempting to sell veterans to the Dodgers. For example, their decision to keep Seager rather than trade him (and others) for former Phillies ace Cole Hamels already looks brilliant. Hamels was ranked 39th last year and fell out of the top 50 this year. While nobody would argue that Seager is better than Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (ranked 21), his superior contract situation and youth make him a superior long term bet. Top pitching prospect Julio Urias (43rd) also made the list.

Here’s more from the Dodgers:

Japanese import Kenta Maeda made his Cactus League debut today, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. His performance today (he did well) is hardly relevant, but Maeda has already taken on an important role in the team’s success. With Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy set to miss chunks of the 2016 season, the Dodgers’ pitching depth will be tested. Maeda’s performance will help to determine how the favored Dodgers perform in a wide open NL West.
Third baseman Justin Turner may return to game action as early as next week, writes Gurnick. Manager Dave Roberts would ease him back, using him as the designated hitter for a time. Turner had microfracture surgery over the offseason. A return to action next week would put him well ahead of the usual recovery timeline. Players like Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore had to ease back in to regular reps over a long period of time, although Turner’s specific situation may differ from theirs.
One of Turner’s third base backups, Alex Guerrero, has been sidelined with a sore left knee, per Gurnick. The team does not believe the injury is serious, and they have not even ordered tests. The Dodgers have struggled to find Guerrero a regular role due to poor defensive chops at second base and an inconsistent bat. Should Turner and Guerrero both miss time, options to fill in at third include Howie Kendrick and Chase Utley.

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