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NL West Notes: Lucchesi, Turner, Souza, D-backs

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The Padres rotation — like other parts of the roster — came with some surprises. As Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, Joey Lucchesi is going to take the ball for the team’s second game of the season. And while veteran righty Tyson Ross didn’t open the season on the active roster, he’s expected to be added in short order, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds on Twitter. Acee notes that there’ll be some competition early in the season to see who’ll be able to stick as a long-term piece in the unsettled rotation mix, noting that Lucchesi has a chance to stay if he performs well.

Lucchesi, 24, was a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft and will be the first pitcher taken that season to appear in the Majors. He ranks ninth in a stacked Padres farm system according to both MLB.com and Baseball America, having turned in a combined 2.20 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 50 percent ground-ball rate in 139 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season.

More from the NL West…

  • Justin Turner is moving closer to swinging a bat, but he’s not yet been cleared to do so, reports Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ third baseman was diagnosed with a nondisplaced fracture in his wrist late in Spring Training after being hit by a pitch, and Turner tells McCullough that he was initially projected to require two to three weeks of rest before being cleared to swing at all. McCullough writes that Turner will be out until at least May, though his exact timeline remains rather nebulous at present. Turner says that upon being diagnosed with the fracture, he was told the recovery could take anywhere from four to 10 weeks depending on how his wrist responds. “There really is no timetable,” says Turner.
  • The Diamondbacks may not need to fill in for outfielder Steven Souza for quite as long as had been feared, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports on Twitter that Souza’s pectoral strain is progressing better than anticipated. That’s promising near-term news for the D-backs, but the team’s long-term outlook remains subject to quite a lot of uncertainty, as Buchanan explores in a subscription piece. The key question, perhaps, is whether the organization can find common ground on a second extension with Paul Goldschmidt. As Buchanan explains, there’s no real indication at this point whether that’ll take place, though CEO Derrick Hall does tell him that “neither side feels an urgency” to explore a new deal at the moment.

Justin Turner Diagnosed With Broken Wrist

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TODAY: Turner will not require surgery to repair the fracture, he tells MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (Twitter link). In fact, he’ll be able to begin working on regaining his range of motion after spending a few days in a brace. That seems like generally promising news, though clearly Turner will still be out to open the season.

YESTERDAY: Star Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner has been diagnosed with a broken left wrist after being hit by a pitch in tonight’s spring game, manager Dave Roberts said after the contest. (H/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter). The unfortunate news strikes a blow to the defending National League champs less than two weeks before the start of the 2018 season.

Turner says it’s a “small, non-displaced fracture,” as Pedro Moura of The Athletic tweets, though we’ll need to await further information before it’s clear how long he’ll be out. Precise details of the injury, as well as its course of treatment and how the veteran proceeds through rehab, will obviously dictate the timeline. It seems clear, based upon generally similar past injuries, that Turner won’t be available for Opening Day and will be out for at least six weeks or so.

The 33-year-old Turner has been among the game’s more productive players in recent seasons. While he has dealt with some injuries, only once appearing in over 130 games since breaking out in Los Angeles, Turner has racked up 18.8 rWAR and 18.2 fWAR over the past four campaigns. He was never better at the plate than in 2017, when he posted an outstanding .322/.415/.530 slash with 21 home runs and more walks (59) than strikeouts (56) over 543 plate appearances.

Replacing that production isn’t reasonably possible, though the Dodgers are about as well-equipped as any team to do so. The club can bump Logan Forsythe to the hot corner while utilizing any number of players at second base. Veteran Chase Utley will no doubt see plenty off time against right-handers, as had already been expected, while versatile right-handed hitters Austin Barnes and Enrique Hernandez will surely also factor into the infield mix.

The injury to Turner will open an opportunity for another player to join the roster to open the season. It’s possible the club could carry an infielder such as Jake Peter or Donovan Solano, neither of whom is on the 40-man, though perhaps the likelier scenario is to keep another outfielder while utilizing Hernandez more on the dirt. Los Angeles is facing tough decisions on players such as Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and the out-of-options Trayce Thompson, so the injury to Turner could allow the club to keep one more of those names. Alternatively, the Dodgers could break camp with Kyle Farmer as a reserve catcher while giving Barnes more time at second base. Needless to say, there are plenty of possibilities.

World Series Notes: Data, Granderson, Hill, Turner, Hinch, Roberts

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The 2017 World Series pits two of Major League Baseball’s top-regarded analytics departments against one another, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Plunkett speaks with Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten about the decision to hire president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the importance that decision played in catching his team up to speed in an increasingly data-driven baseball environment. Dodgers reliever Brandon Morrow, in the midst of a breakout season, chats with Plunkett about the Dodgers’ presentation of data and how it’s helped to turn his career around. “The way that they take those numbers and present them simply is a big deal – because a lot of those numbers can be overwhelming and confusing, to be honest,” says Morrow. Plunkett also speaks with lefty Tony Watson and Astros outfielder Cameron Maybin about the data presentation of both clubs and the way in which it differed from their previous teams.

A few notes on the teams’ respective rosters…

  • The Dodgers informed Curtis Granderson last night that he would not be a part of the World Series roster, tweets Plunkett. Manager Dave Roberts said that Granderson was “obviously disappointed but still supportive” as the team geared up for Game 1 of the series. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that despite his struggles with the Dodgers — Granderson posted a .654 OPS in the regular season following his trade from the Mets and was just 1-for-15 in the playoffs — the 37-year-old veteran hopes to play in 2018. “Mentally and physically, I feel as if I want to,” Granderson tells Sherman. He acknowledged, though, that it’ll depend on whether clubs throughout the league feel he still has enough to offer at the plate. Granderson posted an above-average OBP (.334) and showed well-above-average pop (.481 slugging, .252 ISO) with the Mets before the trade.
  • Rich Hill turned in 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 with the Dodgers during the regular season, but the remarkable 37-year-old late bloomer told reporters today that L.A.’s World Series opponents made a serious push to sign him last winter. J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets that Hill said today that he “went pretty far” into negotiations with the Astros last winter before ultimately agreeing to his three-year, $48MM contract to return to Los Angeles.
  • Mets general manager Sandy Alderson recently commented on non-tendering Justin Turner back in 2013, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig. Turner recently told the media that he declined to attend workouts with Mets strength and conditioning coach (then consultant) Mike Barwis about a week before being non-tendered. (Turner had already lined up hitting lessons with Southern California-based Doug Latta, Carig notes.) Alderson denied that there was any correlation between Turner declining to work with Barwis and the decision to non-tender him. “Justin simply didn’t have a position with us . . . simple as that,” Alderson said to Carig — a reference to the presence of David Wright at third base and Daniel Murphy at second base at the time. The Mets, of course, were hardly the only team to let Turner slip through their fingers. The Reds drafted Turner and traded him to the Orioles as part of the deal to acquire catcher Ramon Hernandez. Baltimore waived him 14 months later. Even the Dodgers, Carig notes, didn’t guarantee Turner a 40-man spot, instead signing him to a minor league contract.
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle both penned columns on the close friendship between Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and Astros manager A.J. Hinch. The two were both played college ball in California but only crossed paths once in the Majors, Kaplan notes, before they began working together in the Padres’ front office. (Roberts stole a base against Hinch, though Hinch takes plenty of credit for a Roberts strikeout that game.) As Nightengale points out, it was current Dodgers vice president Josh Byrnes who planted the seeds of Hinch’s managerial career. Byrnes, the D-backs’ GM in 2009, made a then-eye-opening decision to name Hinch a 34-year-old manager. After both Byrnes and Hinch were dismissed by D-backs ownership, Byrnes became the Padres’ general manager and brought Hinch to the front office in San Diego, where he began his friendship with Roberts. As Nightengale details, it was also Byrnes who recommended Hinch for the Astros’ managerial vacancy. “I admired Josh for being bold and making him his manager,” Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Nightengale. “He was just ahead of his time. The industry wasn’t ready for it.”

Injury Notes: Cespedes, Turner, O’Day, Beltre, Pedroia, Travis

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Here’s the latest flurry of notable players leaving, joining, and (temporarily?) avoiding the disabled list…

  • Yoenis Cespedes is expected to be activated by the Mets tomorrow, manager Terry Collins tells the New York Times’ James Wagner and other reporters.  The slugger will be the 26th man on the Mets’ roster for their double-header against the Braves.  Cespedes has been sidelined since April 27 due to a hamstring strain, with the Mets saying they were being particularly careful with their star outfielder due to nagging lower-leg injuries that have bothered Cespedes dating back to last season.  Cespedes was off to a red-hot start when he was able to play, posting a .992 OPS in 75 plate appearances.
  • Justin Turner will be activated from the 10-day DL tonight, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (link to their tweet).  The third baseman has been recovering from a hamstring strain since May 19.  Turner was hitting .379/.453/.493 over 162 prior to his injury.
  • The Tigers activated catcher James McCann, who has been out of action since May 25 due to a laceration on his left hand.  McCann will be returning to a “platoon-oriented” timeshare but not exclusively so, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus told reporters (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press).  The left-handed Alex Avila has a whopping 1.074 OPS over 139 PA this year, so it seems likely that he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time over the right-handed hitting McCann.
  • The Orioles have placed right-hander Darren O’Day on the 10-day DL due to a right shoulder strain, the team announced.  The move is retroactive to June 7, and righty Stefan Crichton has been called up in a corresponding transactions.  O’Day is having another solid year out of Baltimore’s pen, with a 3.86 ERA, 2.42 K/BB rate and a career-high 11.2 K/9 over his 23 1/3 IP.  O’Day’s absence will further tax an Orioles bullpen that is still missing ace closer Zach Britton.
  • As expected, the Rangers officially called Jurickson Profar up from Triple-A but lefty Dario Alvarez was demoted in the corresponding move, as the club is still waiting to see on Adrian Beltre’s bad ankle.  Beltre told Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Tribune (Twitter link) that he could sit out through the weekend but be available off the bench as a pinch-hitter.  Beltre only just returned to action after spending much of the season on the DL with a calf injury, playing in seven games before suffering his ankle problem on Tuesday.
  • The Red Sox activated Dustin Pedroia off the 10-day DL, one of multiple roster moves that included first baseman Sam Travis and right-hander Brandon Workman being optioned to Triple-A and lefty Brian Johnson being called up to start tonight’s game.  Pedroia was originally thought to be in for a lengthy absence after suffering a sprained left wrist, though he’ll instead return after missing just the minimum 10 days.  Travis’ demotion is noteworthy, as he excelled (8-for-17 with a 1.115 OPS in 19 PA) in his first taste of big league action, though Boston doesn’t really have a place for him on the roster.  Both Josh Rutledge and Deven Marrero are needed for infield depth and to spell the struggling Pablo Sandoval at third, while Hanley Ramirez is currently locked into DH-only duties.

NL West Notes: Giants, Turner, Padres, Hoffman, Mathis

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With the trade deadline approaching, the bottom-feeding Giants may soon have to “take some bold, big-picture steps,” writes Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. One potential problem for the Giants, if they end up selling, is that they might not have any players they could deal who would do much to restock their mediocre farm system, notes Crasnick. And even if they do try to move trade candidates such as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, there are roadblocks in the way. Cueto has the ability to opt out of his contract at season’s end, of course, and neither that nor his relatively unspectacular output this year are doing his trade value any favors. Samardzija, meanwhile, has a 21-team no-trade clause, making it likely he’ll remain in San Francisco.

A look at the rest of the National League West:

  • Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on the disabled list since May 19 on account of a hamstring strain, could rejoin the team by the end of the week, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Turner will begin a rehab assignment with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga tonight. As they continue to await Turner’s return, the Dodgers are likely to recall utilityman Mike Freeman from Triple-A, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Freeman, whom Los Angeles claimed off waivers from Seattle on May 26, would join Logan Forsythe and Enrique Hernandez in giving the Turner-less Dodgers another third base-capable option.
  • The Padres’ attempt to turn Christian Bethancourt into a viable pitcher probably isn’t going to pan out, observes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The 25-year-old catcher/outfielder struggled mightily as a major league reliever this season before the Padres outrighted him in late April, and the experiment hasn’t gone much better in the minors. Across 10 1/3 innings with Triple-A El Paso, Bethancourt has given up 13 earned runs on 15 hits and 12 walks, with just five strikeouts. Bethancourt’s Triple-A woes have come in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, leading Lin to wonder if the Padres would’ve been better off sending him to Double-A to develop.
  • Like Bethancourt, Padres catcher Luis Torrens has fared poorly this season. Nevertheless, the club hasn’t considered jettisoning the Rule 5 pick, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Torrens, a former Yankees farmhand and one of an unprecedented three Rule 5 selections on the Padres’ roster, has collected a mere five hits (four singles and a double) and two walks in 41 plate appearances. Still, San Diego remains bullish on Torrens, particularly as a defender, suggests Cassavell.
  • A lack of self-awareness kept Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman in the minors to begin the season, manager Bud Black told Nick Groke of the Denver Post. “You have to critically evaluate your performance,” Black said. “Was that a good pitch? Was that located well? Was that pitch truly where I intended it to be? Was the homer I gave up a good piece of hitting?” Hoffman seems to have improved in that aspect, as Black noted that the 24-year-old has “come a long way in a short amount of time in a lot of areas.” Ranked as Baseball America’s 27th-best prospect, Hoffman has produced spectacular results this year over 20 2/3 innings in Colorado (2.61 ERA, 11.32 K/9, .87 BB/9), and has made a case to stay in the team’s rotation even when the injured Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson return.
  • Thanks to his pitch-framing skills, Diamondbacks catcher Jeff Mathis has emerged as an important offseason signing, opines Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. The light-hitting Mathis, whom the Diamondbacks added on a two-year, $4MM deal, has been a sizable upgrade behind the plate over predecessor Welington Castillo, as Sawchik details. The change in backstops seems to be benefiting right-hander Zack Greinke, who has pitched to Mathis in all 12 of his starts this year and bounced back from a pedestrian 2016.

Dodgers Place Justin Turner On 10-Day DL

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6:22pm: Turner has only a Grade 1 strain and is expected to be ready within a “couple weeks,” Roberts told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter). The club anticipates utilizing Logan Forsythe at times at third while Turner is out, the skipper added.

5:47pm: The Dodgers have placed third baseman Justin Turner on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He has been diagnosed with a hamstring strain.

Los Angeles will dearly miss Turner, who has excelled since re-signing with the team over the winter, for whatever stretch he’s out. He has only hit one home run thus far after swatting 27 last year, but is nevertheless slashing .379/.453/.493 over 162 plate appearances.

Turner will be replaced by outfielder Brett Eibner on the roster, as JP Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reported, though obviously other arrangements will be needed in the infield. Presumably, the hot-hitting Chris Taylor and utilityman Enrique Hernandez will see added opportunities while Turner is down.

There does seem to be hope, however, that the hammy pull isn’t a particularly significant one. While the visual cues weren’t terribly promising when the injury occurred, manager Dave Roberts told MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (via Twitter) that he was fairly optimistic about the prognosis while noting that a DL placement was quite likely regardless. Of course, that was before the MRI took place; presumably, we’ll learn more about the current expectations before long.

Dodgers Notes: Turner, Jansen, Second Base, Puig, Thompson

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Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner both spoke with Doug Padilla of ESPN.com to discuss their decisions to return to the Dodgers organization this winter. As the pair explains, they were in Curacao for Jansen’s wedding along with teammates Yasiel Puig and Scott Van Slyke and hadn’t discussed baseball for the first several days of the trip. Amusingly, it was during a haircut when the barber asked the duo about their free agency that they first discussed the decisions at hand with each other and eventually their teammates. “I don’t think either one of us was trying to pressure anyone to make any decision, we were just laying out the options and different situations and experiences,” said Turner. Jansen said that none of the teammates in attendance pressured him, instead respecting any decision he’d make, which only further instilled a bond and a sense of family. Jansen adds that the Dodgers upped their offer from four years to five shortly before his wedding, which helped to tip the scale in Los Angeles’ favor.

“When we were all together it made it tough for me to make a decision to be in another uniform,” said Jansen. “…A few days before my wedding, it seemed as if I was going to Washington. But after the Dodgers came at the end, I couldn’t leave. I wanted to stay.” Dodgers fans should absolutely check out the story in its entirety, as its stuffed with quotes from the newly re-signed pair of stars.

More on the Dodgers…

  • Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman spoke with reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, about his team’s needs at second base, and while he wouldn’t comment specifically on the reported impasse with the Twins in their talks for Brian Dozier, he spoke in general terms about the difficult negotiations. “Throughout the course of a negotiation process there are ups and downs,” said Friedman. “So it’s just a tough thing to assess. But there are a number of different options out there. I think some are more likely than others. But three days from now I could feel very differently and those things could flip.” Plunkett reports that the Dodgers have kept in contact with Chase Utley’s representatives this season, though he doesn’t characterize the extent of their interest at this juncture.
  • MLB.com’s Austin Laymance was also on-hand, and he writes that Friedman offered plenty of praise for Puig and spoke of the outfielder as a piece of the team’s future. “I think the upside is significant, and I think there’s a lot more awareness of kind of what’s expected,” said Friedman. “I definitely see some real maturation. In terms of how that translates on the field and success remains to be seen. But he’s capable of so much, and I know his teammates want to see him achieve that, we want to see him achieve that, and we’ll do everything we can to put him in a position to do that.” Friedman suggested that Puig has developed some bad habits in the batter’s box over the years but made progress in correcting them during his demotion to Triple-A. “What we saw in September was just kind of scratching the surface of that…” Friedman added, referencing a month that saw Puig rake at a .281/.338/.561 clip (albeit in just 65 PAs). Puig’s name has been bandied about the rumor mill for the past year or so, but a trade doesn’t seem especially likely at this point.
  • Outfielder Trayce Thompson has “slowly progressed” from a pair of stress fractures in his back that preemptively ended his season back in July, per Friedman (via Laymance). He’s yet to swing a bat and may not be ready for early workouts in Spring Training, but the Dodgers believe he’ll be up to speed at some point before the regular season begins. “We expect him, at some point in Spring Training, to be kind of full go,” said the Dodger president.

NL West Notes: Turner, Rockies, Melancon, Jenkins

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How intent was Justin Turner on re-signing with the Dodgers?  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required), Turner didn’t clean out his locker at the end of the season and continued to go through his winter workouts at Dodger Stadium.  There was very little buzz on the rumor mill linking Turner to any club besides Los Angeles, and sure enough, the two sides continued their relationship when Turner inked a four-year, $64MM deal.  Here’s more from around the National League West…

  • The Rockies could still add a reliever this winter but their big transactions could already be over, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding opines (Twitter link).  Since the Ian Desmond signing, Colorado has been rumored to be exploring such moves as signing Mark Trumbo and trading an outfielder, though Harding doesn’t see either scenario happening.
  • The specifics of Mark Melancon’s $20MM signing bonus with the Giants were broken down by FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) earlier this week.  The closer received $6MM on December 30 and will get another $6MM payment on January 15.  The remaining $8MM will be deferred until after Melancon’s four-year deal is up; he will be paid $1MM every January 15 from 2021 through 2028.
  • Thanks to a trade and two waiver claims, right-hander Tyrell Jenkins has been a member of four different organizations within the last month, a tumultuous stretch for any player, let alone a 24-year-old entering his second MLB season.  Jenkins spoke to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about his busy winter, including how he was already feeling some hometown pressure during his brief stint with the Rangers (Jenkins hails from Henderson, Texas) and how his latest move (being claimed by the Padres) caught Jenkins by surprise, though he’s looking forward to getting an opportunity in San Diego.

Dodgers Sign Justin Turner

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DECEMBER 23, 6:04pm: The deal has been announced.

3:28pm: Turner’s deal appears to have hit the books, though it hasn’t yet been announced. He’ll receive a $4MM signing bonus, with annual salaries of $12MM (2017), $11MM (2018), $18MM (2019), and $19MM (2020), per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). There’s also a $1MM trade bonus provision, though Turner doesn’t pick up any other protection against being dealt, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (also via Twitter), who also specifies that the contract is indeed official.

DECEMBER 13: The Dodgers have finalized their new four-year deal with third baseman Justin Turner, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. The deal will guarantee Turner a total of $64MM, Bowden notes, as was reported yesterday when the two sides were first said to be nearing an agreement. Turner is a client of the Legacy Agency. The Dodgers have yet to officially announce the deal.

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Turner, who just turned 32, was an unheralded minor league signing for the Dodgers three offseasons ago but broke out and reached star status in his three years with Los Angeles. Since being non-tendered by the Mets and signing in L.A., he’s slashed .296/.364/.492 with 50 homers in just shy of 1400 plate appearances. His walk rate was down a bit in 2016, but Turner offset the dip in on-base percentage by delivering the best power production of his life. Turner hit .273/.339/.493 while setting career-highs in home runs (27), doubles (34), triples (three), and isolated power (.218). Further strengthening his overall performance was his excellent defense at third base, where Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at seven run above average, while Ultimate Zone Rating was even more bullish at +14 runs.

[Related: Updated Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart]

A look at the open market shows a number of free-agent alternatives to Turner, and there were trade options to pursue as well (e.g. Todd Frazier), but none of the available alternatives can reliably be expected to produce in the manner that Turner did in his first three years with the Dodgers. Though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hasn’t made a habit out of beating the market and landing top-tier free agents since taking over atop the Dodgers’ front office, he’s now done just that on three instances this winter — each to retain one of his own players — by agreeing to new deals with Turner, Rich Hill and Kenley Jansen. That trio will cost the Dodgers about $192MM in total and add about $48MM of luxury tax considerations to the annual ledger.

Then again, the Dodgers are poised to see their commitments to Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Alex Guerrero come off the books next year and could bid farewell to Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu a year later. Those commitments total upward of $100MM in annual luxury tax penalization, so while the Dodgers are adding $48MM to their CBT total in the short-term, they’ll see more than twice that sum come off the books in the next 24 months. And, of course, Los Angeles could look to trade from its stable of veterans and jump the gun on removing some of those mostly onerous commitments from the ledger.

Of course, the Dodgers can’t be completely ruled out from pursuing further additions. They could still stand to see upgrades in the bullpen, at second base and possibly in the corner outfield. In particular, the 2016 iteration of the club was the worst in baseball at hitting left-handed pitching. The return of Turner should help with that flaw — though he did have some uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year — but further right-handed bats with some pop and/or strong on-base skills would make for reasonable pursuits. And, even with Jansen on board, the Dodgers are currently down a pair of setup men, as both Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell hit the free-agent market following the 2016 season.

Chris Camello of the Rebel Media Group reported Sunday that the two sides were nearing a four-year deal that could be worth about $65MM (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday morning that there was growing confidence on the Dodgers’ behalf. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal chipped in additional financial details (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers, Justin Turner Progressing Toward Four-Year Deal

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3:10pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the deal will be for $64MM when it is ultimately completed.

12:06pm: Sherman reports that the two sides have been discussing a contract in the vicinity of $64MM in total, though there could be a higher guarantee and some deferrals as well (Twitter links). The Rebel Media’s Chris Camello first tweeted yesterday that the two sides were getting close to a deal in the four-year, $65MM range.

10:41am: Heyman tweets that the Dodgers currently have an offer on the table to Turner and are awaiting his decision. ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets that both the Dodgers and Turner’s representatives at the Legacy Agency say there’s no agreement just yet, though both are hopeful.

10:24am: The Dodgers and Turner are progressing toward an agreement, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If an agreement is reached, it’ll “likely” be for four years, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

7:35am: The Dodgers are becoming more confident that they can re-sign third baseman Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). The two sides have been in talks on a four-year contract recently, Olney adds.

Turner, who turned 32 three weeks ago, has been one of the Dodgers’ top offseason priorities. He’s fresh off a brilliant season that saw him bat .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers, 34 doubles and outstanding defense at the hot corner (+7 DRS, +14 UZR). That marked the third consecutive season of exceptional offensive production from Turner, who signed a minor league contract with Los Angeles in February 2014 after being non-tendered by the Mets and went on to break out in Chavez Ravine. In 386 games and 1383 plate appearances as a member of the Dodgers, Turner has slashed .296/.364/.492.

Bringing back the right-handed-hitting Turner would be a boost to a Dodgers team that ranked last in the Majors against left-handed pitching in 2016 in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. However, it should also be noted that Turner’s own uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year contributed heavily to L.A.’s woes against in that department. Turner hit .282/.359/.465 against left-handers in his first two seasons with the Dodgers but slumped to a .209/.303/.337 mark last year. His strikeout and walk rates against lefties remained encouraging, although he sported just a .230 average on balls in play against lefties, which obviously proved to be a significant detriment.

Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/MLBTR projects the Dodgers for a $204MM Opening Day payroll as it is, even without re-signing Turner, so adding him back into the mix would presumably push the team’s 2017 payroll north of $220MM (though the deal could of course be backloaded to some extent). That number would continue to rise if the team were to re-sign Kenley Jansen, another top target, or add an experienced arm to replace their closer in the event that Jansen signs elsewhere. The Dodgers will, at least, be free of their obligations to both Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero next winter, which will result in about $28MM coming off their payroll. They’ll also be able to buy out Andre Ethier’s $17.5MM mutual option. The following offseason will see Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu come off the books, creating plenty of opportunity for the Dodgers to shed some significant payroll and luxury tax considerations in the next two years.

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