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Justin Smoak

Brewers To Sign Justin Smoak

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9:38am: Smoak will earn $4MM in 2020 and has a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2021 season, Passan tweets.

9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.

9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.

Justin Smoak | im Klement-USA TODAY SportsThis is the latest in a string of short-term acquisitions for the Milwaukee organization, which has almost completely turned over its infield over the past six weeks. The club has installed Eric Sogard and Luis Urias in the middle infield mix while picking up Ryon Healy and now Smoak to help cover the corners. Keston Hiura, of course, will factor prominently into the mix as well after impressing with the bat in his rookie season.

Beyond that, president of baseball ops David Stearns said after this week’s signing of Avisail Garcia that Ryan Braun will likely see some time at first base in 2020 as well (Twitter link via Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal). It’s a layered collection of veterans and young upside hitters, and  the precise manner in which playing time will be sorted remains to be determined in Spring Training.

Smoak made a long-awaited break-out at the plate in 2017 and followed that up with a strong ’18 effort. In combination, he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs in 1,231 turns with the bat in those campaigns. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in the just-completed season. The switch-hitting 33-year-old is coming off of a .208/.342/.406 effort, but the underlying metrics on his season are far more interesting than his surface-level .208 batting average.

In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. As explored here at MLBTR back in September, Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, indicating there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department. He also drew walks at an exceptionally healthy 15.8% rate while striking out just 21.2% of the time.

As highlighted in that September exploration of his odd season, Smoak chased pitches outside the strike zone less than nearly any hitter in MLB, and he ranked among the game’s best in terms of pitches per plate appearance. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who should make opposing pitchers work even if he continues to hit for a low batting average. And, supposing Smoak can turn balls in play into base hits at an increased rate — his .223 BABIP was certainly an outlier — he could bounce right back into being a productive hitter.

Milwaukee undeniably lost some key pieces this winter, with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departing for four-year deals with the White Sox and Reds, respectively. Eric Thames, meanwhile, was bought out and sent into the free-agent market. Smoak will in many ways replace Thames at a slightly reduced cost — likely bringing better glovework to the table but lesser production against right-handed pitching.

Smoak will come in at $1.5MM less than Thames would’ve earned — a slight savings that exemplifies the Brewers’ risk-averse mentality and focus on the margins when building out a roster. This depth-forward approach both safeguards against injury and allows for slightly reduced workloads that, in theory, lessen the overall risk of injury and keeps their position players fresher. It also leads to a great deal of turnover, which can be frustrating for fans at times but has resulted in three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances.

Blue Jays Looking At Encarnacion, Smoak, Tsutsugo

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The Blue Jays are weighing a pair of familiar names for their first base/DH vacancy, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link) reports that Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak are “getting consideration” from the club.  The Jays also continue to be “intrigued” by Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, though it “certainly doesn’t seem like they’re close on anything” with the slugger.

A fractured right wrist and a strained oblique limited Encarnacion to only 109 games and 486 plate appearances in 2019, his lowest totals in either category since the 2010 season.  When Encarnacion was healthy, however, he still wielded a formidable bat, hitting .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers for the Mariners and Yankees.  Encarnacion turns 37 in January and would likely be used mostly as a DH in Toronto, owing to both his age, the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface, and the Jays’ desire to see what they have in first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

With a market likely limited to American League teams and a relative lack of DH openings among those teams, Encarnacion could likely be had on a one-year deal, which is surely attractive to a rebuilding Jays team.  Bringing Encarnacion back would also undoubtedly be well-received by Toronto’s fans, as Encarnacion was a very popular figure while hitting 239 homers (the third-highest total in club history) for the Jays from 2009-16.

Smoak was another fan favorite for his five solid seasons with the Jays, most notably his 38-homer outburst in 2017.  Despite being perhaps the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2019, Smoak still managed a slightly above-average (101 wRC+ and OPS+) offensive showing of .208/.342/.406 with 22 homers over 500 PA.  We haven’t heard much news on the 33-year-old Smoak this winter, though there was some indication after the season that the Blue Jays were thinking about a potential reunion as they weighed their first base options.

What could hurt both Encarnacion and Smoak, however, is that they are only first basemen, whereas GM Ross Atkins has a stated preference for first base “alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well.”  Tsutsugo has an advantage in this regard, as he has primarily played outfield for the last several seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars while also having some first base and third base experience in his past.  While Tsutsugo isn’t considered to be particularly adept defensively at any position, the Blue Jays might not mind since he’d be slated for a good chunk of DH time anyway.

The 28-year-old Tsutsugo has an impressive .285/.382/.528 slash line and 205 home runs over exactly 4000 PA during his 10 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Major League teams have until December 19 to negotiate a contract with Tsutsugo, and clubs will then have to pay an additional posting fee (as determined by the size of the contract) to the BayStars under the MLB/NPB posting system.

Atkins: Blue Jays Will Prioritize Pitching, Increase Offseason Spending

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The Blue Jays and their fans were surely excited to see a potential wave of young talent reach the Majors, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all debuting in 2019, but the team’s pitching proved to be a disaster. Toronto starters posted a combined 5.25 ERA, and that number includes Marcus Stroman’s pre-trade contributions. Cut out his 124 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, and non-Stroman Blue Jays starters recorded a 5.74 ERA.

As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”

Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki’s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.

The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.

Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.

To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.

Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.

A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.

It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.

AL East Notes: Torres, Jays, Rays, Red Sox

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Another day, another alarming health situation for the Yankees. Second baseman Gleyber Torres left the team’s game against Toronto on Friday after slipping on the outfield grass and potentially suffering an injury to his right knee (video via MLB.com). Torres initially stayed in the game in the wake of his fourth-inning fall, but the Yankees removed him after the sixth. Injuries to stars has been one of the main themes of the Yankees’ season, but they’ve weathered all of them en route to 100 wins and an American League East championship. The Yankees are still playing for homefield advantage throughout the postseason, though, and will obviously aim for a World Series title once the playoffs arrive. With that in mind, New York can ill afford to lose one of the best middle infielders in baseball in the 22-year-old Torres. [UPDATE: Torres “felt a little weak in his lower legs,” manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and other reporters. He’ll get checked out Saturday.]

Here’s more from the division…

  • Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun profiles Justin Smoak’s evolution into a clubhouse leader and mentor for the Blue Jays’ wave of upstart talents. Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the teammates who effuse praise for Smoak and the impact he’s already had on their young careers. “He’s a guy who has a relationship with every single guy in this locker room, no matter if they’re an up-and-down guy or if they’re playing every day,” Biggio says of Smoak. “It just shows how much he emphasizes being a good teammate and it just shows the kind of person he is overall.” Smoak fondly reminisces of the 2015-16 playoff runs and discusses how he and his family have come to consider Toronto a second home, though he also sounds like a veteran who recognizes the writing on the wall. MLBTR examined the pending free agent’s 2019 season earlier Friday.
  • The Rays are likely to activate right-hander Yonny Chirinos from the injured list Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Chirinos has been a starter for most of the year (a solid one at that), but he’ll work as a reliever for at the least the initial part of his return, according to Topkin. The Rays have been without Chirinos since they placed him on the IL on Aug. 5 with an inflamed middle finger on his pitching hand.
  • The Red Sox are “likely” to shut injured infielder Michael Chavis down for the season, per Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald. Chavis will next take the field during winter ball in Puerto Rico, Hewitt adds. An oblique strain has kept the 22-year-old Chavis out of action since Aug. 11, and it appears his rookie campaign will end with a .254/.322/.444 line and 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances.
  • Blue Jays minor league righty Luis Quinones received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drugs Nandrolone, John Lott of The Athletic reports. The ban will take effect at the beginning of the 2020 season. The 21-year-old Quinones was a 34th-round pick of the Jays this past June who produced stellar results in 36 2/3 innings between the rookie and low-A levels. He wrapped up his first professional season with a 2.95 ERA and 14.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.

Justin Smoak’s Strange Season

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Justin Smoak’s time with the Blue Jays is all but certain to come to an end when Toronto plays its final game this season. The rebuilding Jays will want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez, who has already begun to cut into Smoak’s playing time, and Smoak is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career.

As far as contract seasons go, Smoak surely can’t be thrilled with his results. He’s hitting .206/.342/.398 with 21 home runs on the year. At a time where seemingly everyone in the league has morphed into a power hitter, Smoak has cleared the fences 17 fewer times than he did in his 38-homer 2017 season. Waning playing time and a brief stint on the injured list have impacted that total, but the overall results aren’t ideal with free agency looming.

Smoak’s season, though, is also among the stranger you’ll come across when sifting through this year’s class of free agents. No one likes a .206 batting average, of course, but there’s also quite a bit to like about Smoak’s 2019 campaign. His 16.1 percent walk rate is the highest of his career by a long shot and is the sixth-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball. Smoak’s strikeout rate (21.1 percent) is down more than five percent from its 2018 level and is the second-best mark of his career. Only eight qualified hitters in baseball — Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach — have chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone than Smoak and his 22.9 percent clip. He ranks in the top 30 in terms of pitches per plate appearance (4.10). He’s been extremely disciplined at the plate.

A notable portion of Smoak’s struggles could be tied up in the fact that he’s had some poor luck on balls in play (.220). When looking into particularly egregious BABIP erosion, it’s common to see some trends that would portend to fewer balls dropping for hits — an uptick in infield flies, for instance, or for a player with Smoak’s skill set, perhaps a sharp increase in ground-balls. That hasn’t been the case, though. Smoak’s seven percent infield-fly rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 36.9 percent ground-ball rate is actually down nearly three percent from 2018. His line-drive rate, correspondingly, is up nearly three percent. His fly-ball rate is right in line with his past four seasons.

So perhaps Smoak simply isn’t making good contact anymore? Not the case. Smoak’s overall percentage of balls hit at 95+ mph is down from 41.9 percent last year to 38.9 percent in 2019, but he’s upped his average exit velocity, improved his launch angle and very slightly improved his barrel rate, per Statcast. Smoak’s expected batting average of .242 and his expected slugging percentage of .472 (also via Statcast) dwarf his actual output. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, the -.041 difference between Smoak’s actual wOBA (.325) and his expected wOBA (.366) is the ninth-largest. Put another way: Statcast considers Smoak among baseball’s unluckiest hitters in 2019. Not great timing for a player who’s about to hit free agency.

Of course, a poor season can’t be entirely blamed on rotten luck. Some of the struggles in terms of batting average are tied to aggressive shifting against Smoak — particularly when he hits left-handed (where he’s vastly better than from the right side). Smoak is MLB’s fourth-most shifted player when he bats lefty, and teams are shifting him 12 percent more often than in his monster 2017 season. As such, it’s barely been worth the effort for him to leave the box when he puts the ball on the ground. (I joke for the sake of hyperbole — run out your grounders, kids!)

Smoak is hitting .139 on grounders as a lefty and a ghastly .105 from the right side. Shifts are becoming more aggressive, more universally adopted and more precise; that’s going to hurt your plodding first basemen of the world, and Smoak is no exception. He’s already top-25 among qualified hitters in terms of fly-ball rate, but it’s easy to argue that he should strive to elevate even more. It’s also worth noting that Smoak is hitting .583 on line-drives, which sounds nice but is substantially south of the league average (.686) and his career rate (.711). Shifting likely plays a role there as well — but to a lesser extent. That’s one area where he seems likely to improve moving forward.

Given the leaguewide uptick in shifts over the past few years and Smoak’s decreasing speed, he’s probably never going to hit .270 like he did in 2017 (.270/.355/.529). But Smoak is also still making good contact and is more patient at the plate than he’s ever been before. He’s only been narrowly above replacement level this year by measure of wins above replacement, but there’s good reason to expect his bat to bounce back in 2020. The free-agent market has been particularly harsh for first base/DH types in recent winters, which could lead to someone getting themselves a nice bargain on Smoak.

Blue Jays Notes: Smoak, Galvis, Bichette, Catcher

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A day after suggesting that Rowdy Tellez was in line to receive more playing time down than Justin Smoak down the stretch, Blue Jays skipper Charlie Montoyo has walked that assertion back a bit. “Maybe it came out like he’s going to play more than Smoak, but it’s still the same way,” Montoyo told reporters, including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. “Smoak will DH, play first. I don’t see that much of a difference.” Smoak himself was caught off guard by Montoyo’s initial comments, but the first baseman said Montoyo took him aside in an effort to sort things out. It seems that Smoak and Tellez will share first base/designated hitter duties down the stretch, though Montoyo has no shortage of other players he’ll need to try to work into the mix at DH. Davidi adds that the Blue Jays “seem to have no intention” of placing Smoak on outright waivers in the manner they did with Freddy Galvis, who was claimed by the Reds earlier this week.

More out of Toronto…

  • The Blue Jays didn’t find much in the way of trade interest for Galvis prior to the trade deadline, writes The Toronto Sun’s Ryan Wolstat, but the arrival (and immediate success) of Bo Bichette prompted the club to give the veteran Galvis an opportunity to be claimed by a club that’d play him every day at his natural position. General manager Ross Atkins said the club and Galvis were open and honest with each other leading up to the move. Montoyo effused praise for Galvis’ professionalism and leadership, and teammates such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. expressed some sadness in seeing Galvis depart. “He taught me a lot, not just to me, to the rest of the guys and I will always carry that with me,” said Gurriel of Galvis. “Freddy’s a huge mentor for any player.” The Reds will now have the ability to exercise Galvis’ $5.5MM club option for the 2020 season, though they’ll also be on the hook for the $1MM buyout should they not decide to bring him back.
  • While Danny Jansen is still the favorite to serve as the Jays’ primary catcher in 2020, TSN’s Scott Mitchell writes that Reese McGuire will be given an opportunity to show he can be a significant piece of the catching puzzle in the season’s final six weeks. Both Jansen and McGuire drew heaps of praise for their defensive prowess from catching coordinator John Schneider, and Jansen indeed ranks among the game’s best backstops in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking, Defensive Runs Saved and Baseball Prospectus’ fielding runs above average. Jansen has also salvaged what was shaping up to be a miserable season at the plate, hitting .252/.316/.484 dating back to June 1. As Mitchell points out, the Jays have a number of other catching options coming up through the system, giving them some potential trade commodities to address other holes on the club if the Jansen/McGuire pairing is indeed determined to be the long-term catching tandem.

East Notes: Scherzer, Stanton, Jays, Mets

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A look around the majors’ East divisions…

  • Nationals ace Max Scherzer came out of a 32-pitch sim game Tuesday feeling “really good,” Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com relays. If all goes well over the next few days, Scherzer could throw a bullpen session Thursday and then either make a rehab start or return to the Nationals’ rotation Sunday. The three-time Cy Young winner has started just twice for the team over the past month and a half – his most recent outing came on July 25 – because of back problems. Should he return this weekend, he’d be on a limited pitch count, according to manager Dave Martinez.
  • Injured Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is “up to 75 or 85 percent,” according to manager Aaron Boone (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It’s unclear how close Stanton is to returning, though. The former NL MVP has been on the shelf since late July with a knee injury, and he only took 38 plate appearances before then. Somehow, though, the Yankees have thrived this season with basically no contributions from Stanton. Just about every outfielder they’ve plugged in has succeeded, including formerly unspectacular-looking pickups Mike Tauchman and Cameron Maybin.
  • The Blue Jays recalled first baseman Rowdy Tellez from Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. The 24-year-old forced his way back by mauling pitchers at the Triple-A level, where he slashed .366/.450/.688 with seven home runs in 109 plate appearances. Tellez wasn’t nearly that good this year in the majors before a mid-July demotion, as he hit .227/.280/.436 with 14 HRs over 286 PA. However, considering they’re looking toward the future, the rebuilding Blue Jays want to see if Tellez can continue his minor league brilliance in their uniform. His promotion could spell bad news for veteran first baseman Justin Smoak, who’s likely to lose playing time to Tellez, manager Charlie Montoyo said Tuesday (via Scott Mitchell of TSN). That doesn’t seem to bode well for the Toronto future of Smoak, a pending free agent.
  • Mets righty Jacob Rhame has undergone ulnar nerve transposition surgery and will miss the rest of the season, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. The 26-year-old only threw 27 innings between the majors and minors this season, six of which came as a member of the Mets.

Lack Of Deadline Interest In Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis

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Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak and shortstop Freddy Galvis looked like prime trade candidates going into Wednesday’s deadline, but it doesn’t appear either player generated much interest. The markets for Smoak and Galvis were just about nonexistent on deadline day, Scott Mitchell of TSN reports. Both players may have wound up on the move this month had the August waiver deadline stuck around, as Mitchell notes, but that’s no longer a factor.

Smoak was reportedly drawing a fair amount of interest as of Tuesday, when the Indians and Rays were said to be among the teams in on him. But things went unfavorably from there for rebuilding Toronto, which first saw the Indians augment their offense by acquiring outfielders Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes late Tuesday. The Rays then added first baseman Jesus Aguilar in a trade with the Brewers early Wednesday. Aguilar’s far cheaper and controllable for longer than Smoak – a pending free agent on an $8MM salary.

There has been speculation about the Blue Jays extending Smoak, which could be more realistic now that they won’t be able to trade the soon-to-be 33-year-old. A Blue Jay since 2015, the switch-hitting Smoak broke out with the club from 2017-18, but his bottom-line production has declined this season. Smoak has slashed .213/.356/.420 (110 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 368 plate appearances.

Smoak’s numbers aren’t going to put him in position to break the bank on his next contract, especially as an aging first baseman, though he has likely deserved better this year. Smoak has drawn almost as many walks (61) as strikeouts (72), while his .219 batting average on balls in play is 48 points below his career mark (.267), and he boasts an excellent .389 expected weighted on-base average. That figure vastly outdoes Smoak’s real wOBA (.343) and ranks among the best in baseball.

Galvis, set to turn 30 in November, joined the Blue Jays on the open market last winter for a guaranteed $5MM. His pact includes a $5.5MM club option for 2020, but the Jays might reject it in favor of a $1MM buyout now that high-end middle infield prospects Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio have come up to the majors.

With Bichette and Biggio in the mix, Galvis’ time as a regular in Toronto appears to be over. However, to Galvis’ credit, the switch-hitter has continued his impressive run of durability this season and chipped in a career-best .264/.299/.436 line (91 wRC+) with 16 HRs over 435 trips to the plate. That production wasn’t enough to excite a contender, though, and it didn’t help Toronto’s cause that there wasn’t a great deal of demand for middle infielders approaching the deadline.

Trade Interest In Justin Smoak Escalating

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Trade interest in Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak is “picking up,” tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman connected the Indians to Smoak earlier today, and Nicholson-Smith adds the Rays as a team of interest as well. Several contenders have expressed interest in Smoak, per Nicholson-Smith. Notably, he’s not in the lineup tonight for the Blue Jays.

Toronto has been one of the few clear sellers on the summer market, having already departed with Marcus Stroman and David Phelps in the past 48 hours. The 32-year-old Smoak, a free agent following the 2019 season, is a logical player to deal away, too, even if the return on him doesn’t prove overwhelming. Smoak won’t be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, so there’s added incentive to take the most appealing option presented between now and tomorrow afternoon’s trade deadline.

The switch-hitting Smoak’s batting average is down this season, but he’s walking at a career-best 16.7 percent clip and once again demonstrating above-average power. In 359 plate appearances, he’s hit .215/.357/.427 — good for a 110 OPS+ and a 108 wRC+ (which is to say he’s been about eight to ten percent better than league average from an offensive standpoint, even after accounting for his hitter-friendly home park). Smoak’s 19.8 percent strikeout rate is actually the lowest of his career, and he’s not popping up at an exorbitant level either. Rather, the key to his diminished average could be a fluky .220 average on balls in play (which checks in well south of his career .267 level).

Smoak is earning a reasonable $8MM salary in 2019 with about $2.71MM of that sum yet to be paid out between now and season’s end. With the Jays dealing away short-term assets, it seems likely that Smoak will be wearing a new uniform this time tomorrow.

Indians Showing Interest In Justin Smoak, Nicholas Castellanos

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10:19am: Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is also a possible target for the Indians, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It is not clear from the report whether the teams are engaged in talks.

9:38am: The Indians are “among [the] teams looking at” Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak, a switch-hitter, is earning $8MM this year before reaching free agency at season’s end.

It’s not surprising to see the Cleveland organization exploring possible offensive-oriented additions. The club has received a big contribution from Carlos Santana at first base, but hasn’t settled on a steady designated hitter.

Plugging in the 32-year-old Smoak would make for a nice lineup boost for the Indians. Smoak is slashing .215/.357/.427 this year with 18 long balls in 359 plate appearances. That’s shy of his output in the preceding two seasons, but still handily above-average production.

No doubt the Indians also see a bit of an opportunity to buy low on a player that may not draw much demand elsewhere, due in no small part to the lack of American League buyers and his defensive limitations. Smoak is drawing walks at a hefty rate (16.7%) and seems rather unfortunate to carry only a .220 batting average on balls in play. Statcast credits him with a big .388 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact he has made, which is much higher than his .342 wOBA.

Even as the Indians consider scenarios in which they’d part with starter Trevor Bauer, they’re hardly looking at a sell-off. The club weathered a tough start to the season and presently sits just two games back of the Twins.

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