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Jurickson Profar

Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?

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After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.

Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.

Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.

As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez’s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.

While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.

Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.

Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.

It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24.  Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.

One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:

Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the  front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.

Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.

The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.

Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.

Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.

Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.

On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.

As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.

Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.

Jurickson Profar Reportedly Seeking Three-Year Deal

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With Juan Soto signed and both Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger traded, some of the top outfielders still available this offseason include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar. Per recent reporting, Santander is looking for a five-year deal and Hernandez is looking for three. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports today that Profar is “looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range.”

Those asks are roughly in line with preseason expectations. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents post, Santander was predicted for $80MM over four years, Hernández for $60MM over three, and Profar $45MM over three.

The three players have some similarities. Each is considered a subpar defender in an outfield corner. None is particularly threatening on the basepaths. Hernández does have 83rd percentile sprint speed but has never swiped more than 12 bags in a season and might not top that now that he’s 32 years old.

But all three are above average hitters. Profar is actually coming off the strongest 2024 season of the three, but he’s been far less consistent in his career. His 2023 season was so poor that he settled for a $1MM guarantee from the Padres last offseason.

That turned into a remarkable bargain for the Friars. Profar has always had good plate discipline and that didn’t change this year, as his 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were each a few ticks better than average. But when he made contact, he did more damage than ever before. His 24 home runs and 158 hits were both career highs. His .302 batting average on balls in play was the best of his career, but so was the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour was a few ticks above his previous best of 87.5 mph. His 44.4% hard hit rate was far higher than his previous personal best of 34.3%.

The overall result was a .280/.380/.459 batting line and a 139 wRC+, indicating he was 39% better than league average. Hernández and Santander had a 134 and 129 wRC+ this year, respectively. Profar’s defense wasn’t graded strongly but he did add ten steals this year, tying a career high. Overall, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season, with Hernandez at 3.5 fWAR and Santander at 3.3.

But as mentioned, consistency has not been Profar’s forte, something that MLBTR has covered previously. His offense has seesawed between below and above average in alternating years, dating back almost a decade now. Starting from 2017 and going to the present, his wRC+ numbers have been 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and 139. Hernández had a dip with Seattle in 2023 but has otherwise been in the 130-145 range from 2020 to the present. Santander has been between 119 and 129 in three straight seasons now.

There’s some risk in taking a three-year bet on Profar, hence the lower predicted contract. But if the Statcast data points to any kind of real change in approach and the contracts end up roughly in the predicted areas, then he has a chance at being the best investment of the three.

Profar’s market has been relatively quiet thus far. He and the Padres each desire a reunion but he hasn’t been connected to any other clubs. The mutual interest between him and the Friars isn’t surprising. San Diego’s president of baseball operations A.J. Preller clearly has an affinity for Profar. Preller was working for the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur and has since signed Profar to the Padres many times. After Profar had an unsuccessful sojourn with the Rockies, he spoke openly of how happy he was to eventually return to San Diego.

However, the financial situation might stand in the way of another reunion. RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of $210MM next year, well beyond their 2024 payroll of $169MM. It’s been reported that they need to get trim that projection down, probably closer to their 2024 number. That’s led to rumors of players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez and others being available in trades, so signing Profar to a notable three-year deal is hard to see at the moment.

Teams like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees have been connected to Hernández and Santander this winter and it stands to reason that they would have at least some interest in Profar as well. The Astros, Reds, Pirates, Royals and other clubs are logical fits for corner outfield help.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

Padres Notes: Profar, Higashioka, De Vries, Salas

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The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.

In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”

After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.

That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.

Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.

That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.

With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.

What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.

Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.

Padres Notes: Campusano, Tatis, Profar

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The Padres placed catcher Luis Campusano on the 10-day injured list today with a thumb contusion, per a team announcement. Catcher Brett Sullivan was recalled to the big league roster in a corresponding move. Fortunately, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that the Padres don’t expect Campusano’s stay on the shelf to be a long one as it likely won’t require more than a minimum stay of ten days.

After a 2023 season where Campusano was limited to just 49 games by injuries but appeared to break out at the plate with a .319/.356/.491 slash line (good for a 134 wRC+), the former top prospect’s 2024 campaign has been somewhat disappointing. He’s appeared in 66 of the club’s games this year but has mustered only a .234/.282/.371 slash line, which even in the game’s current deflated offensive environment is good for a wRC+ of just 89. That’s hardly a terrible mark for a catcher, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the offensive output San Diego was surely hoping for after Campusano flashed the ability to be a star-level bat behind the plate when healthy enough to take the field last year.

With the 25-year-old sidelined for the time being, veteran backup Kyle Higashioka figures to step in as the club’s regular behind the plate while Campusano heals up. That leaves backup duties to Sullivan, 30, who had a three-game stint with the Padres earlier this year after making his MLB debut with the club last season. In a 33-game cup of coffee with San Diego last year, Sullivan struggled to a .210/.244/.284 slash line in 86 trips to the plate and appeared to be below average defensively behind the plate both in terms of framing and controlling the running game, although he does have a reputation as a solid blocker.

While Campusano was the only player the Padres placed on the shelf today, he’s not the only member of their starting lineup nursing an noteworthy injury. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell explored last night, both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar exited yesterday’s game against the Brewers due to injuries. Profar departed due to tendinitis in his left knee that he’s been dealing with throughout the season to this point, while Tatis left because of a left triceps contusion, though Cassavell notes that he also appeared to be favoring his right quad, which he notes the young star has been playing on despite an injury for weeks.

Both players were out of the lineup today, though Profar told reporters (including Cassavell) today that he would be available off the bench for today’s game against Milwaukee and that he’s been managing the injury successfully to the point where it isn’t getting worse. Manager Mike Shildt, for his part, indicated to reporters last night that the club wasn’t especially concerned about either Profar or Tatis and that both believed they could play through their current ailments.

It’s easy to see why the Padres wouldn’t want to lose either player to the injured list. In 80 games this season, Tatis has looked good with a .279/.354/.468 slash line (139 wRC+) with eight stolen bases, while Profar leads all NL hitters with a .415 on-base percentage and sports an even more impressive 162 wRC+ as the club’s everyday left fielder. With the duo standing out as perhaps the club’s two biggest run producers in a strong lineup that also features Manny Machado, Luis Arraez, and Jackson Merrill, it’s hard to measure how difficult things could get for the Padres if they were to lose Profar and Tatis for a significant period. After all, that strong offense has only translated to a 40-40 record to this point in the season that leaves them in the mix for an NL Wild Card spot among a group of eight teams that are within three games of .500.

Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith

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The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.

Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.

Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.

There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.

Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.

He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.

San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.

Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
  • Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
  • Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres, Jurickson Profar Agree To One-Year Deal

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Free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Padres are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The MVP Sports Group client will be guaranteed $1MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, with the deal still pending a physical. Profar can also add another $1.5MM via incentives based on plate appearances, per Murray.

Jurickson Profar | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Profar, who turns 31 next week. His career has been extremely up-and-down, something that MLBTR covered in 2022. Last year was another downswing on that sine wave, with 2023 his worst season to date. He opted out of his previous deal with the Padres at the end of 2022, taking the $1MM buyout instead of the $7.5MM salary. He lingered onto the market until the middle of March but did eventually get a one-year, $7.75MM deal from the Rockies, narrowly edging out the money he left on the table.

The move to Colorado didn’t suit Profar. His 18.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were pretty close to his career norms, but he hit just eight home runs in 472 plate appearances. Given the expectations of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, his tepid .236/.316/.364 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of just 72. His defense was graded poorly as well, and the Rockies released him in August. He returned to the Padres late in the year and finished strong, but in a small sample of just 14 games. FanGraphs considered him to be two wins below replacement on the year while Baseball Reference had him at -1.3 WAR.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ international scouting department when Profar originally signed and was eventually ranked the top prospect in all of baseball. Multiple shoulder surgeries have derailed his trajectory, but Profar has still shown inconsistent flashes of solid MLB production and Preller clearly still holds an affinity for him. This will be his fifth season suiting up for the Padres, for whom he carries a .246/.334/.376 batting line in 1321 plate appearances dating back to 2020.

From the team’s vantage point, Profar helps to fill a dire need for outfielders. Prior to this signing, San Diego only had two outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr. and light-hitting Jose Azocar. They’ve also been working top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill out in left field and could consider the 20-year-old as an outfield option at some point this season, should that experiment go smoothly, though as it stands Merrill has played just 46 games at the Double-A level and has not yet played a single game in Triple-A.

The Friars have also been working to cut payroll throughout the offseason, so securing Profar at barely more than the league minimum surely held appeal. Profar at least gives the Padres three big league outfielders on the 40-man roster, but his signing likely doesn’t rule out the addition of another more notable signing/acquisition who could push the 27-year-old Azocar into a fourth outfield role for which he’s better suited. With Profar added to the fold, San Diego’s payroll now sits at a projected $159MM, per Roster Resource — more than $90MM south of last year’s franchise-record $255MM mark. The Padres have about $215MM worth of projected luxury tax considerations, however.

In all likelihood, there are still some additions to be made by the Padres between now and Opening Day. Their outfield depth remains perilously thin, and they’ve reportedly been exploring both the trade and free agent markets for ways to change that. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is reportedly one potential target. The Padres also have questions in the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, behind top starters Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King. In-house options include Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and Glenn Otto, among others, but the Padres are also still looking into the lower tiers of free agency. They reportedly have some interest in Noah Syndergaard and in Michael Lorenzen.

The Top Unsigned Corner Outfielders

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, designated hitters and starting pitchers, and we will now proceed to the corner outfielders.

  • Jorge Soler: He probably won’t be considered an everyday fielder by any club in the league, but his bat is clearly a notch above anyone else on this list. Soler hasn’t been the most consistent hitter over the years but is excellent when he’s in good form. 2023 was an upswing in his up-and-down career, as he hit 36 home runs and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances. He also kept his strikeouts to a 24.3% rate, a tad above league average but solid by his standards. Soler’s .250/.341/.512 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 126. He walked away from $13MM and the final year of his deal with the Marlins and is now surely looking for a strong multi-year deal. But despite that potent bat, he won’t be anything more than a part-time option in the outfield. He only made 31 starts in the field last year and was graded poorly when out there, having never really received strong marks for his glovework. Whichever club signs him will surely think of him as a designated hitter who can play the field on a part-time basis, at best. The Blue Jays, Mets, Giants and Angels have been linked to him this offseason, with the Jays perceived by some as the favorite to get a deal done.
  • Adam Duvall: Though he has been seeing significant time in center field in recent seasons, Duvall has spent far more of his career in the corners. His work in center has been passable, but he’s now 35 years old and is probably best thought of as a corner guy who can cover center on occasion. At the plate, he doesn’t take many walks and also strikes out a ton, but he parks the ball over the fence often enough to be useful. He was punched out in 31.2% of his trips to the plate last year and only walked at a 6.2% clip, but he launched 21 home runs in just 92 games. His .247/.303/.531 slash translated to a 116 wRC+. Health is an issue, which is why his output was limited last year and he’s only once played 100 games in the last four full seasons. But the combination of solid outfield defense and home runs nonetheless makes him an attractive piece. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently suggested that Duvall would be choosing between the Angels and the Red Sox.
  • Tommy Pham: After a solid run from 2015 to 2019, Pham’s production has been up-and-down over the past four seasons. He had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, bounced back in 2021 but then struggled again in 2022. His most recent campaign was another solid bounceback, a season he split between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate were both a bit better than league average. Pham hit 16 home runs, and his line of .256/.328/.446 translated a wRC+ of 110. He also stole 22 bases and slotted in at all three outfield positions, though primarily in left. As the Diamondbacks made a World Series run, he was able to add another three homers and swipe another two bags in the postseason. Back in November, he said he had received interest from roughly 10 teams, but no specific clubs were mentioned and some of them may have moved on to other targets since.
  • Aaron Hicks: Like many of the other names on this list, Hicks has been inconsistently productive in his career. He had a strong run with the Yankees from 2017 to 2020 but his results fell off from there. He was subpar throughout 2021 and 2022, continuing into the beginning of 2023, leading the Yanks to release him. He latched on with the Orioles and got back on track. In 65 games with the O’s, Hicks hit seven home runs and walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances, striking out just 20.8% of the time. His .275/.381/.425 line translated to a wRC+ of 129. He also stole six bases and played all three outfield spots. That’s a fairly small sample of work that followed more than two years of struggles, but Hicks will be a no-risk signing for whichever club lands him, at least from a financial perspective. The Yankees are still on the hook for his $9.5MM salary both this year and next, as well as a $1MM buyout on a 2026 club option. Any other club can sign Hicks for the prorated league minimum of $740K for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay. It’s unknown what Hicks will be looking for in a landing spot, but since he’s already got a contract, he could look to prioritize playing time or joining a competitive club.
  • Eddie Rosario: Rosario has been at least league average at the plate for six of the past seven seasons. In 2022, his wRC+ dipped all the way down to 62, but it rebounded to an even 100 in 2023. He dealt with some vision problems in that 2022 season and underwent a laser eye procedure, so it’s seems fair to write that year off as an aberration. Rosario hit 21 homers for Atlanta in 2023, though with a subpar walk rate of 6.6%. His .255/.305/.450 line was exactly league average, as mentioned, but Rosario’s platoon splits have become increasingly glaring as his career has progressed. His defensive grades have declined over the years as well, although he posted solid marks in 2023. Many teams will view him as a left field/DH option who’s best paired with a platoon partner. Atlanta declined a $9MM club option for his 2024 services. He’ll likely be available on a one-year deal that clocks in south of that sum.

Honorable mentions: Whit Merrifield, Randal Grichuk, Robbie Grossman, Austin Meadows, David Peralta, Jurickson Profar, Brian Anderson

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