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Juan Soto

Yankees Notes: Soto, Judge, Yamamoto, Bullpen

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On the heels of last night’s blockbuster, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters this afternoon. He discussed a handful of topics on where the front office will proceed.

Cashman acknowledged the team has yet to have any conversations with Juan Soto’s camp regarding a long-term extension (relayed by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). The three-time All-Star is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $33MM salary. It seems all but a lock that Soto will choose to test free agency. He declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 and certainly wouldn’t sign for less than that now that he’s within a year of the open market.

The GM conceded “it’s a possible short term situation” with Soto. That didn’t deter the Yankees from making their all-in push to install him into the 2024 lineup alongside Aaron Judge. Between Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, they’ve added a trio of outfielders to better balance a lineup that struggled mightily when Judge was on the injured list. The 2022 AL MVP was out between June 4 and July 28 after injuring his right big toe in a collision with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium.

Judge played regularly from the time of his reinstatement through season’s end. While there wasn’t much doubt about his health status, Cashman confirmed today that the toe problem is fully behind him (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

The Soto return was pitching heavy. Michael King headlined a group that also included Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Double-A prospect Drew Thorpe. After parting with so much of their rotation depth to push that trade over the finish line, Cashman said the team will look to backfill on the pitching staff (passed along by The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty).

There’s no bigger pitching target than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The NPB ace is scheduled to meet with MLB teams next week. The Yankees are among a handful of teams that are serious suitors for the 25-year-old righty. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Yamamoto is the club’s priority at this point.

It seems the rotation is taking a bigger precedence than the bullpen. The Athletic reported last night that the Yankees were showing interest in free agent reliever Jordan Hicks. Feinsand downplays the club’s desire for a notable bullpen strike, however. While he confirms the Yankees like Hicks, he indicates a notable relief acquisition is more of a fallback possibility if Yamamoto signs elsewhere.

Yankees Acquire Juan Soto In Seven-Player Trade

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For the second time before his 26th birthday, Juan Soto is on the move. The Yankees and Padres announced a trade sending Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham from San Diego to the Bronx. The Friars receive five players — right-hander Michael King, top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka — in return.

Soto’s time in San Diego concludes after a season and a half. The Padres acquired the star slugger from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 in one of the biggest deadline blockbusters in history. He’d go on to appear in 214 games with the Friars, hitting .265/.405/.488. It wasn’t immediately the smoothest tenure, as Soto was hitting below his established lofty standards down the stretch in ’22 and early this past season. By May, he turned a corner and was back to performing at an elite level.

The three-time All-Star ultimately turned in a .275/.410/.519 line with 35 home runs while playing in all 162 games. He narrowly established a career mark in longballs despite the generally pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park. Soto’s generational plate discipline remained on full display. Among hitters with 400+ plate appearances, only new teammate Aaron Judge walked more frequently. Soto trailed just the respective league MVPs, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, in on-base percentage. He was one of four hitters to walk more often than he struck out.

It’s what we’ve come to expect from Soto, who now owns a .284/.421/.524 slash over five and a half MLB seasons. He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory and will immediately step into the middle of the New York batting order. He and Judge now comprise the game’s most fearsome corner outfield tandem. Along with Grisham and Alex Verdugo — acquired last night from the Red Sox — they’re part of an almost completely overhauled outfield in the Bronx.

The trade is a firm win-now strike for the Yankees, the kind of headline-grabbing splash that’s reminiscent of the Bronx Bombers of old. It’s a bold push on the part of ownership and the front office after a fourth-place finish in the AL East.

In all likelihood, Soto is a one-year acquisition. He is in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $33MM salary that would break the all-time record for an arb-eligible player. While the Yankees are likely to inquire with Soto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term extension, it is widely expected he’s strictly a one-year rental. The three-time All-Star rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The price would surely only be higher now that Soto is a season and a half closer to the open market.

The chance to discuss extension figures with Soto’s camp isn’t entirely without value, yet it’s far less important than ensuring he’ll be a Yankee in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone said this morning the Yankees were comfortable playing Judge in center field if necessary. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal thinks the team’s “most frequently used outfield” would indeed feature Judge in center despite the increased injury risk of that position, with Soto in right and Verdugo in left.

Given Giancarlo Stanton’s injury history, the Yankees should also be able to rotate their stars in the DH mix and use the glove-first Grisham in center. Top center field prospect Jasson Domínguez could factor in at some point later in the year after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, while young left fielder Everson Pereira is likely to head back to Triple-A.

Grisham, who recently turned 27, played four seasons in San Diego. The Padres acquired him from the Brewers in a four-player trade after the 2019 campaign. Grisham had an excellent showing in the abbreviated 2020 season but has trended down offensively through the past few years. He was still a slightly better than average hitter in ’21 before falling below that in the last two seasons.

The left-handed hitter has run sub-Mendoza line batting averages in each of those campaigns. The Padres nevertheless stuck by him as their primary center fielder. Grisham has been patient enough to work a fair number of walks and reached double digits in homers for all four years in San Diego. His .191/.300/.347 line going back to the start of 2022 remains grisly, but the walks and serviceable power have been enough to make him a bottom-of-the-lineup regular.

Grisham is a plus defender in center field, annually receiving strong marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. DRS has rated him 25 runs above average in his nearly 4100 career innings; Statcast has Grisham 30 runs better than par. The glove was enough for the Padres to tender him an arbitration contract projected around $4.9MM. Grisham will go through that process once more before qualifying for free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Between Verdugo, Soto and Grisham, the New York front office has added a trio of left-handed bats within a little more than 24 hours. Early in the offseason, general manager Brian Cashman called it a priority to bring in two lefty-swinging outfielders. There may not be one in the majors better than Soto.

It comes at the cost of a good chunk of their upper level pitching depth and significant cash. The Padres went into the offseason broadcasting a need to cut spending. The Friars had emerged as a surprising behemoth in recent years. Late owner Peter Seidler signed off on repeated sprees that pushed the Friars into the realms of the game’s top spenders. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been shy about pursuing star talent.

That evidently hasn’t been entirely sustainable over the long haul. With reports of a need to scale back payroll toward the $200MM range to become compliant with MLB’s debt service ratio, speculation about a Soto trade has been rampant throughout the winter. He’d been projected for the highest 2024 salary of anyone on the roster. Yet the short-term commitment made it easier to move Soto for a noteworthy return than it would have been to shed money from a lengthy deal (e.g. Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr.).

With no intention to rebuild, the Padres needed to find a way to bring in rotation help. San Diego had arguably the sport’s best starting pitching last season. With each of Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha hitting free agency, they were down to essentially Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and a host of unproven options with limited payroll room.

The Yankees obliged, sending a handful of upper level arms. The package is headlined by King, a 28-year-old righty who broke out as a starter late last season. The Boston College product had been an effective multi-inning reliever for the bulk of his time in the Bronx. Reeling with rotation issues late in the year, the Yankees gave King a shot as a starter. They couldn’t have anticipated it going as well as it did.

In his nine starts, King pitched to a 2.23 ERA through 40 1/3 innings. He held opponents to a .243/.284/.355 line while striking out a stellar 31.3% of batters faced. The Yankees gradually built his workload, keeping him to five or fewer innings in all but two of those appearances. King found success in both outings he did work into the sixth, each against the Blue Jays, highlighted by a 13-strikeout performance on September 20.

There’s certainly risk in betting on King to hold up as a starter. This year’s 104 2/3 innings is a personal high at the MLB level, plus King was on the 60-day IL in 2021 and ’22 for a finger injury and an elbow fracture, respectively. The Padres hit on their gamble that Lugo could convert from the bullpen last offseason, though. King held his 94-95 MPH average fastball velocity and mixes four pitches. He has dominated hitters from either side of the plate and owns an overall 2.60 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 155 2/3 frames since the start of 2022. It’s a gamble, but there’s also significant upside.

The Padres control King for two seasons via arbitration. His earnings have been capped by his career résumé as a non-closing reliever. Swartz projects him for just a $2.6MM salary in 2024. Even if he performs well over a full season as a starter, he’d likely be capped in the $8-10MM range for ’25.

Brito and Vásquez held depth roles in the rotation as rookies in 2023. The former is a 25-year-old righty who worked 90 1/3 innings over 25 outings (13 starts). Brito pitched to a 4.28 ERA overall but fared much better out of the bullpen. He turned in a 1.43 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate in relief compared to a 6.32 mark with a 16.4% strikeout percentage from the rotation. That could point to a future in long relief, although prospect evaluators generally projected Brito as a possible back-end starter.

Vásquez, 25, posted a 2.87 ERA through his first 37 2/3 MLB frames. His strikeout and walk numbers were more middling. Vásquez also struggled to throw strikes in Triple-A, although he punched out nearly 27% of batters faced in 17 starts at the top minor league level. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he mixed six pitches (four-seam, sinker, cutter, sweeper, changeup and curveball) in his limited big league time.

Both hurlers still have two minor league options remaining. Neither has yet reached a full year of service. San Diego can control them for at least six seasons. They’re each reasonably valuable trade pieces, but Thorpe is the true secondary piece behind King.

A second-round pick in 2022, the 6’4″ righty was excellent in his first full professional season. Thorpe combined for a 2.52 ERA in 139 1/3 innings between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. He punched out more than a third of batters faced compared to a modest 7.1% walk rate. Baseball America had recently ranked him seventh among Yankee prospects.

According to BA, he sports a deep arsenal headlined by a plus changeup and good life on a 92-94 MPH fastball. He also has plus control and projects as a back-end or better starter. He’ll likely start the season in Double-A, but as an advanced college draftee, it’s not out of the question he’s on the mound at Petco Park sometime next summer.  Preller suggested as much in a post-trade press conference this evening.

Rounding out the return is Higashioka, a veteran catcher to back up 25-year-old Luis Campusano. Higashioka had spent a decade and a half in the Yankee organization dating back to his selection in the 2008 draft. He has settled in as a respected #2 presence behind the dish. Higashioka runs bottom of the barrel on-base grades but has reached double digit homers in three straight seasons. He has excellent pitch framing marks throughout his career, although Statcast metrics suggest his typically solid blocking ability plummeted this year.

Swartz projects the 33-year-old for a $2.3MM salary in his final season before free agency. With no cash considerations involved in the swap, the financial elements of the trade are limited to the players’ respective arbitration salaries. King and Higahioka are projected to make a total of $4.9MM; Soto and Grisham will combine for something in the $37.9MM range.

It represents around $33MM in savings for the Padres. Roster Resource projects the Friars around $156MM in actual spending. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, around $28MM below the base threshold. There’s room for the front office to dip into the middle tiers of free agency. They’ll likely still look for some reliability in the back of the starting staff, a back-end reliever and add at least one outfielder. Tatis could theoretically slide from right to center field, although it’s widely expected they’ll pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee.  Additionally, Preller stated his intention tonight to look to add more starting pitching.

The cost for the Yankees goes well beyond the $33MM difference in arbitration projections. The Yankees were already into luxury tax territory. Roster Resource now projects their CBT mark in the $290MM range, well into the third tier of penalization. The Yankees have paid the tax in each of the last two years, so they’re charged significantly higher penalties as repeat payors.

New York will pay a 50% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% on their next $20MM, and 95% for spending between $277MM and $297MM. They’d be taxed at a 110% rate on every dollar past $297MM. The Yankees pretty clearly still need to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a reliever, and it’s worth considering that the cost of those additions would roughly double in 2024 due to the luxury tax – barring payroll subtractions in other places.

In total, today’s trade adds around $24.75MM in expected tax obligations. It amounts to a nearly $58MM investment for what’s primarily one season of Soto’s services and two years from Grisham. The Yankees could recoup a draft choice if Soto walks in free agency next year once he declines a qualifying offer, although that’d fall only after the fourth round because of New York’s CBT status.

Between the huge financial cost and the notable pitching talent, it’s a massive investment. That’s a testament both to Soto’s talent and the Yankees’ all-in approach to turning things around. It will likely be the biggest trade of the offseason and, unlike some blockbusters, it’s between two clubs that fully expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Things are just beginning for both franchises.

Jack Curry of the YES Network reported this morning that a Soto trade was likely. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the Padres would receive King, Thorpe and at least two others. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Grisham’s inclusion. Curry had the likely inclusions of Vásquez, Higashioka and Brito. Sherman first reported the deal was agreed upon.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees, Padres Nearing Juan Soto Deal

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5:39pm: The Padres continue to evaluate the medical records of the players involved, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

3:10pm: Curry reported on air that King, Thorpe, Brito, Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka are all likely to be included in the trade (video link). The deal still isn’t quite across the finish line but could be wrapped up this afternoon.

2:42pm: The two sides are still sorting out minor details and reviewing medical information, but Heyman tweets that a deal is expected to be finalized sooner than later. Soto and Grisham are both expected to go to the Yankees.

1:47pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that even after the Yankees’ acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is still involved in the current iteration of talks between New York and San Diego. He’d be used as a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive upgrade. His projected $4.9MM salary is a bit steep for that role, particularly when factoring in the associated luxury tax implications, but the Yankees don’t seem too concerned with club payroll at present.

11:20am: The package for Soto is expected to include King and Thorpe, as well as “at least two” other players, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who adds that a deal is indeed close to being finalized.

8:42am: Talks between the Yankees and Padres regarding star outfielder Juan Soto have continued throughout the night, it seems, and the Yankees have “intensified” their efforts to pry Soto away from San Diego, Jack Curry of the YES Network reports. Curry calls a trade “likely,” noting that pitchers Michael King and Drew Thorpe could both be in play. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that in addition to Thorpe and King, each of Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have all been discussed. Certainly, the Yankees won’t be sending that whole slate of arms, but there’d likely be more to the package than Thorpe and King alone.

A trade sending Soto to the Bronx has been viewed as a possibility for much of the offseason, given the superstar slugger’s projected $33MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres’ reported need to scale back payroll (while still adding to a perilously thin rotation mix) and the Yankees’ desire for aggressive and broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. Prior reporting on the talks between the two parties have been hung up on the Padres insisting on the inclusion of MLB rotation pieces, most notably including King. That Curry mentions King and Thorpe as possibilities to be included in this deal seems to represent an acquiescence of sorts from the Yanks.

If a deal is indeed completed, Soto would be the second outfielder acquired by the Yankees in as many days. New York pulled of an extraordinarily rare swap of note with their archrivals in Boston last night, landing fellow corner outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in exchange for a three-player package. Soto and Verdugo would join Aaron Judge in the outfield, resulting in a major overhaul of a group that was a weak point in the Bronx throughout the 2023 season.

Even with Judge in the fold, Yankees outfielders combined for a dreadful .220/.293/.399 batting line last season. The resulting 90 wRC+ suggests that Yankees outfielders were about 10% below average at the plate even with the 2022 AL MVP’s production included. Subtracting Judge from the equation, Yankees outfielders combined to post a catastrophic .214/.247/.365 batting line on the season.

A Verdugo-Judge-Soto outfield would be far more productive and also substantially reduce the Yankees’ strikeout woes; Verdugo fanned at just a 15.4% rate in 2023, while Soto wasn’t much higher at 18.2%. Both Soto and Verdugo are one-year solutions in the outfield, as both are set to become free agents following the 2024 campaign.

Presumably, the Yankees would deploy Judge in center field regularly for the upcoming season, with Verdugo in left field and Soto in right. The Padres and Yankees had previously discussed including San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham in a Soto package, but Heyman tweets that following the acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is no longer likely to be a part of talks with the Friars. While manager Aaron Boone can’t formally comment on any potential acquisition of Soto, he did acknowledge to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters just now that the Yankees would be comfortable with Judge playing center field every day this coming season.

Roster Resource already projects the Yankees for a payroll north of $245MM and more than $256MM worth of luxury tax obligations. Soto would push those numbers to around $278MM and $289MM, respectively. The Yankees are already effectively at the second luxury-tax threshold, meaning the penalties they face for incorporating Soto’s salary into the fold will be steeper. As a team paying the luxury tax for a third straight season, they’d pay a 62% tax for exceeding by $20-40MM and a hefty 95% surcharge on the next $20MM spent. With regard to Soto, that’d equate to about $24.5MM of penalties on top of his projected $33MM salary.

Of course, further changes could impact that payroll and roster outlook. The Yankees have been prominently linked to star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and are viewed as one of the favorites to land him. Even failing that, the Yankees could need to look for outside help in the rotation — particularly if King and/or Schmidt is indeed part of the swap that ultimately nets them Soto. Adding Soto and making a subsequent addition of any real note to the rotation (barring the acquisition of a pre-arbitration arm to plug into the mix) would push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization — often referred to as the “Steve Cohen tax” in reference to the crosstown owner of the Mets.

Latest On Juan Soto

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Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.

Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.

The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.

While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.

While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.

Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.

Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks

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The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.

All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.

It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.

But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.

Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players:  C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.

Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.

It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.

As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.

Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.

Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.

It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

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Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade

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There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33MM salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.

It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.

What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?

Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

Best Fits

  • Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24MM shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
  • Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50MM below the tax threshold. They’re within $7MM of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25MM south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
  • Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4MM below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25MM away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
  • Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52MM shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
  • Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40MM south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.

Longer Shots

  • Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
  • Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
  • Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
  • Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7MM projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).

Payroll Questions

  • Astros
  • Brewers
  • Guardians
  • Marlins
  • Pirates
  • Rays
  • Twins

While a $33MM salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and already right around their reported target area.

Other Priorities

  • Cardinals
  • Reds
  • Tigers

Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that make them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.

The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push in to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.

Wrong Competitive Timeline

  • A’s
  • Nationals
  • Royals
  • White Sox

The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

A.J. Preller, Scott Boras Address Juan Soto’s Future

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Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and renowned agent Scott Boras each conducted media sessions this afternoon at the GM Meetings. Unsurprisingly, Juan Soto’s future was a point of discussion in both pressers.

As he did shortly after the regular season concluded, Preller suggested the Padres’ hope is to work out a long-term extension (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). At the same time, he didn’t rule out the possibility of a trade if no deal came together. “Juan long-term [versus] Juan on a one-year deal, that brings different dynamics,” Preller acknowledged. “We understand what that means for our roster both short-term and long-term.”

With Soto a year from free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for what would be a record $33MM arbitration salary next season, an extension will be challenging. Still, the Friars are seeking to compete in 2024. Trading Soto would clear payroll room that could be reallocated to plugging multiple holes in the rotation but would obviously subtract one of the game’s top hitters from the lineup.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this evening that the Friars are likely to consider trade possibilities this offseason. That’s well shy of saying a move is probable, of course, and Cassavell notes that many within the organization understandably prefer to hold onto the star outfielder.

Boras confirmed that the Padres have signaled a willingness to retain Soto. “(I) met with the Padres, they laid out their plan for next year which obviously included a lineup that definitely includes Juan Soto,” the agent told reporters. “He’s their one .900 OPS player. They’re looking for more left-handed bats, rather than less.”

That doesn’t foreclose a trade, although it’s clear the Padres will continue to speak with Boras about extension scenarios before seriously considering moving him. “We’re going to have conversations with Scott and his group about what it looks like long-term,” Preller said (via Cassavell). “Our position-player team, we think, is very strong. Keeping that group together, adding to the pitching — that’s one plan.“

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