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Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Roster Moves: Brewers, Red Sox, Twins

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The Brewers have acquired Triple-A infielder Patrick Dorrian from the Orioles in exchange for cash considerations, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Dorrian, 25, hit .161/.256/.269 over 169 plate appearances with Triple-A Norfolk this season. As recently as last year, however, Dorrian posted a solid .246/.362/.475 in 473 plate appearances in Double-A. The Brewers will see if they can rekindle some of that magic in Triple-A.

  • The Red Sox have optioned Jeter Downs back to Triple-A. The move comes in anticipation of activating Christian Arroyo tomorrow, per Christopher Smith of masslive.com. Downs spent just three days on the active roster, going 0-4 in his debut with three strikeouts. Arroyo is on the COVID injured list but is expected back for Friday’s game. Arroyo has gotten off to a slow start, slashing .187/.227/.319 over 98 plate appearances.
  • The Twins optioned Josh Winder to Triple-A, per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press (via Twitter). Winder just completed a rehab assignment, so he had to be returned to the active roster and optioned. The 25-year-old right-hander made three starts and pitched four times out of the bullpen this season, pitching to a 3.68 ERA/4.36 FIP over 29 1/3 innings. Winder has three options remaining, so the Twins can easily give him more time in the minors.

Twins Expected To Select Chi Chi Gonzalez

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The Twins are likely to select right-hander Chi Chi González onto the big league roster, according to various reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s expected to start tomorrow night’s game against the Blue Jays.

Minnesota just placed Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list on account of a right pectoral strain this afternoon. That deals another blow to a rotation that is already without Joe Ryan because of COVID-19 protocols and lost Josh Winder and Chris Paddack (the latter for the entire season) to arm injuries last month. That leaves Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Devin Smeltzer as the top four arms in the rotation, although manager Rocco Baldelli said on Tuesday he hopes Winder can return next week (Park link).

That uncertainty in the starting staff may afford González the opportunity for a longer-term audition for a depth role, but it’s also possible he’s up for a one-off appearance. The Twins are headed to Toronto for a weekend series, and they’re likely to be without some players for that set. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated athletes from traveling across the border, and previous teams headed to Ontario have placed some players on the restricted list as a result.

Regardless, González is now set for his fourth consecutive season of MLB action. The 30-year-old pitched for the Rockies between 2019-21, posting an ERA of 5.29 or higher in each year. González posted worse than average strikeout and walk numbers throughout his time in Colorado, but that environment comes with its own set of challenges he won’t face in Minnesota. He at least managed to soak up innings for the Rox, and he’s off to a nice beginning to his tenure with the Twins.

Assigned to Triple-A St. Paul to open the season, the former first-round pick has started five of his eight outings. He’s tossed 36 2/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball, striking out a decent 23.2% of batters faced against a 9.3% walk rate. Most impressively, the Oral Roberts product has induced grounders on more than 55% of batted balls against him in the minors. That’s a marked uptick over his career 42.4% figure in the big leagues, and the Twins will hope he can carry that new form over against MLB hitters.

Twins Announce Multiple Roster Moves

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves today, with reporters such as Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press passing them along. Righty Bailey Ober has been reinstated from the injured list while fellow righty Trevor Megill has had his contract selected. To make room on the active roster, lefty Devin Smeltzer was optioned while righty Josh Winder was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder impingement. To make room for Megill on the 40-man roster, righty Chris Vallimont has been designated for assignment. Winder’s placement is retroactive to May 18.

With the Ober and Winder moves, the rotation adds one arm and subtracts another. Ober went on the IL at the end of April with a groin strain. Prior to that, his season was off to a nice start, as he had thrown 19 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 19% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. Due to injuries to Ober and Dylan Bundy, Winder stepped up and threw 29 1/3 innings for the Twins. In that time, he put up an ERA of 3.68 with an 18.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

With Chris Paddack undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Minnesota rotation now consists of Ober, Bundy, Chris Archer, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. No timetable was provided for Winder’s absence, but a shoulder issue is always at least a bit concerning for a pitcher. As long as he’s out, the club will have to think about who the sixth starter will be the next time one is needed. Options on the 40-man roster include Smeltzer, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands and Drew Strotman.

Megill, 28, made his MLB debut with the Cubs last year, throwing 23 2/3 innings out of their bullpen with an 8.37 ERA. That’s an obvious indicator of poor results, but it wasn’t all bad. He struck out 26.1% of batters faced and walked just 7%, both of those numbers being better than league average. However, his 24.1% HR/FB rate was more than double last year’s 10% league average. He was non-tendered and then signed by the Twins on a minors deal. He’s carried that profile over into 2022 so far, though with much better results overall. Through 11 innings in Triple-A, he has a 3.27 ERA. His 34.1% strikeout rate is fantastic, though his HR/FB rate is 33.3%, but that represents just two dingers. He has a couple of option years remaining, meaning he could be shuttled between Triple-A and the majors as long as he can hang onto a spot on the 40-man.

Vallimont, 25, just earned his spot on the roster in November, ahead of the Rule 5 draft that ended up being canceled due to the lockout. However, through 19 innings so far in Double-A this year, he has a 9.95 ERA. His 31.1% strikeout rate at this level last year has dropped all the way down to 17.9%. His walk rate also jumped from 14.6% to 20.5%. Those results were evidently enough for the Twins to risk losing him. They will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers. Given his youth and ability to be optioned, he could attract the interest of clubs that need pitching depth who are willing to dismiss this year’s struggles as a small sample blip.

Twins Notes: Gray, Rodriguez, Buxton

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Sonny Gray left today’s start because of right hamstring tightness after facing just seven batters, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Gray is day-to-day, and they won’t move him to the injured list as of right now, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). They should have a better idea tomorrow if they’re going to need to skip him in the rotation. Josh Winder pitched well in relief, and he could be an option for a spot start or two if Gray can’t go. With a six-man rotation, however, the Twins could also make do simply by skipping Gray’s spot. He’s not scheduled for another start until next Friday against the White Sox. In other Twins news…

  • Right-hander Dereck Rodriguez has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A St. Paul, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Rodriguez made one appearance, giving up three earned runs over four innings before being designated for assignment. He spent last season in Triple-A with the Rockies, but did not make it to the Show. He posted a 6.72 ERA over 85 2/3 innings for Albuquerque.
  • Byron Buxton’s MRI came back clean, and like Gray, the Twins are leaning towards leaving him on the active roster as he heals, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Buxton had his knee drained of fluid from inflammation, but with no structural damage, the hope is that Buxton can be back on the diamond in a couple of days. Buxton’s health is obviously a significant variable for the Twins this season, and they’ll want to be prudent before sending him back onto the grass.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Singer, Lynch, Tigers, Peralta, Pineda, Twins

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The Royals finalized their season-opening rotation yesterday, with manager Mike Matheny telling reporters (including Alec Lewis of the Athletic) that southpaw Daniel Lynch will claim the final spot behind Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández. Notably, that means right-hander Brady Singer — who has started all 39 of his MLB appearances — is set to work out of the bullpen initially. Matheny indicated the Royals still view Singer and righty Jackson Kowar as starting pitchers long-term, but it’ll be Lynch who gets the nod for now.

It’s a bit of a surprising move, as Singer is coming off the better season. Neither hurler had a good ERA in 2021, but Singer had a better strikeout and ground-ball rate than Lynch while issuing slightly fewer walks. Lynch generated a slightly higher whiff rate, but Singer was among the league’s best pitchers at picking up called strikes. Some evaluators raised concerns during Singer’s prospect days about whether his below-average changeup and lower arm slot could diminish his ability to turn a lineup over multiple times, but he’s not shown marked second or third times through the order splits in his career thus far. Injuries and/or underperformance to the front five figure to give Singer another rotation look in the near future.

More pitching updates from around the division:

  • The Tigers are planning to use Wily Peralta in relief this season, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. The righty started 18 of 19 appearances with Detroit last year, posting a solid 3.07 ERA but an underwhelming 14.4% strikeout rate. The Tigers brought Peralta back on a minor league contract this spring. He seems likely to get another big league call fairly soon, but he was delayed in reporting to Spring Training because of visa issues and is set for further ramp-up work in the minors. The Tigers added Michael Pineda on a one-year big league deal to assume the final rotation spot behind Eduardo Rodríguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. Pineda — held up by visa concerns of his own — consented to be optioned to Triple-A Toledo to open the year for more build-up time, giving Tyler Alexander the #5 spot for the season’s first couple weeks. Pineda tossed three innings for the Mud Hens yesterday, and Petzold notes he’s likely to make two more appearances there before being recalled to the majors.
  • The Twins made a last-minute addition to their rotation before Opening Day, acquiring Chris Paddack from the Padres in a deal that involved four MLB players changing hands. Minnesota already had a starting five of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober and Chris Archer lined up, and manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) the Twins will roll with a six-man starting staff to open the season. Active rosters are expanded from 26 to 28 through April, giving teams flexibility to carry plenty of arms. Minnesota is also carrying top prospects Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran on the Opening Day roster, with both working in relief. Duran is expected to remain in that role (where he shined in two innings during his MLB debut this afternoon); Winder could be a rotation option down the line, and Baldelli said Winder could shoulder as much as five innings during an appearance out of the ’pen in the early going (Park link).

Twins Notes: Larnach, Miranda, Rotation, Winder

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach and infield prospect Jose Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul. Neither player will break camp with the big league club.

Larnach played in just under half of Minnesota’s games as a rookie last season. The former first-rounder and top prospect only managed a .223/.322/.350 line in 301 plate appearances, striking out at a 34.6% clip. Those swing-and-miss concerns resulted in the Twins optioning Larnach back to Triple-A in August, and he’ll start this season in the minors as well.

With a projected regular outfield of Alex Kirilloff, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, there weren’t everyday at-bats to afford to Larnach early on. The 25-year-old is still a valuable long-term piece for the organization, and they’d evidently prefer to get him regular run in the minors as opposed to having him start the year as a part-time player.

That’s also the case for Miranda, a 23-year-old who broke out with a huge .344/.401/.572 line between the minors’ top two levels. That earned him a place on the back half of Baseball America’s and FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects lists this winter, but he’ll head back to St. Paul to start the year. Minnesota has offseason acquisition Gio Urshela at third base, with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez options at the keystone and designated hitter. Miranda, added to the 40-man roster in November, figures to get his first big league look at some point this year. That’ll be put on hold by the Twins enviable collection of infield depth.

Strong as Minnesota’s position player group looks, the team’s rotation is still a major question mark. The Twins entered the offseason likely needing to add three starters from outside the organization. They’ve done so, acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds and signing free agents Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Each of Bundy and Archer comes with durability and performance questions related to tough 2021 seasons, though.

The Twins were recently connected to A’s starters Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, both of whom would still be marked upgrades to the starting staff. The latest reports suggest Oakland could elect to keep both of those hurlers, and Montas in particular now seems unlikely to be moved before Opening Day. The Twins were linked to Montas/Manaea before they signed Archer on Monday, and it now appears they’ll break camp with a rotation of Gray, Bailey Ober, Archer, Bundy and rookie Joe Ryan.

In an appearance on SKOR North’s Mackey & Judd podcast this week, Darren Wolfson noted the Twins talks with the A’s had “stagnated.” Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press hears the A’s never made a formal ask for anyone from Minnesota in Montas and Manaea discussions. Wolfson suggests the Twins could be willing to revisit discussions on Montas and Manaea at some point, but Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey indicated this week the team is content with their existing rotation options. “We’ll always stay open-minded to everything,” Falvey said about the possibility of acquiring another starter (via Helfand). “I know I always say that, but that’s true. It’s just at this late stage as we approach Opening Day, it feels like the group is probably in this room.”

Like every team, the Twins will need to rely on more than five starters throughout the course of a 162-game season. Righty Josh Winder, Baseball America’s #6 prospect in the organization, would appear to be the top depth option out of the gate. Winder has yet to make his MLB debut, but he pitched to a 1.98 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates (31.3% and 4.8%, respectively) in 10 Double-A starts last season. The Twins could start him in the St. Paul rotation, but manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) today they’re open to carrying him with the big league club as a long relief option.

The organization no doubt views Winder as a starting pitcher long-term, but keeping him in the MLB bullpen could allow him to stay stretched out and get his feet wet in the big leagues. Given the rather thin rotation, the VMI product figures to be starting games before long.

Twins Designate Willians Astudillo, Charlie Barnes For Assignment

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The Twins are designating utilityman Willians Astudillo and left-hander Charlie Barnes for assignment, the club announced. Additionally, left-hander Devin Smeltzer and outfielder Kyle Garlick have cleared outright waivers. Minnesota added six prospects to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight’s deadline for Rule 5 draft protection: Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Chris Vallimont and Josh Winder.

Minnesota also announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a deal with outfielder Jake Cave on a major league contract. He’ll make $800K, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). Cave had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.1MM salary via arbitration. It’s not uncommon to see players on the non-tender bubble (as Cave appeared to be) agree to salaries for a bit lower than projected in advance of the non-tender deadline, however.

Amidst this large flurry of Twins transactions it’s the one jettisoning Astudillo that may grab the most attention. While the 30-year old didn’t quite get it done at the plate this past season, producing a .236/.259/.375 slash, his Twins tenure has often left fans looking past his offensive contributions. Dating back to his 2018 debut with the Twins, Astudillo has lined up at every position except for shortstop, providing adequate defense and pitching as admirably as one can expect in mop-up duty (including a 2.25 ERA in four 2021 innings). The multi-talented Astudillo is now all but certainly headed for free agency, though a reunion with the Twins later in the offseason isn’t yet out of the question.

Barnes, 26, is a soft-tossing lefty and former fourth-rounder who made his big league debut out of necessity to help soak up some innings in an injury-ruined season for the Twins’ rotation. He was clobbered for a 5.92 ERA while striking out just 20 of the 175 batters he faced. The Twins now have a week to trade Barnes or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Also gone from the roster are Smeltzer, a former Dodger prospect who came to the Twins in the Brian Dozier trade, and Garlick, an offseason waiver claim last winter who played a platoon role in Minnesota early this season. Smeltzer logged a 3.86 ERA through 49 innings during the 2019 season, his debut campaign, but has battled injuries and seen his performance dip in the two years since. He missed nearly the entire 2021 season due to elbow troubles.

Garlick, meanwhile, hit .232/.280/.465 with five homers and eight doubles in just 107 plate appearances. He hit 10 extra-base hits (four homers, six doubles) in just 63 plate appearances against lefties but spent the majority of the season on the injured list himself.

Most of the Twins’ additions are wholly unsurprising. Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in 2017 and, despite missing the season due to an ACL tear, was never going to be exposed to the Ryle 5 Draft. Miranda was the Twins’ minor league player of the year and posted video-game numbers in the minors, hitting his way into Top 100 consideration. Winder has battled injuries but might be Minnesota’s top pitching prospect based on stuff alone. Enlow was an overslot third-rounder who has had his own injury troubles but is still held in high regard. Sands and Vallimont both rank among the Twins’ more promising arms themselves, even though Vallimont had a down year in 2021. The former Marlins righty, acquired in the trade that brought Sergio Romo to Minnesota and sent first baseman Lewin Diaz to Miami, is a potential fourth/fifth starter who’s reasonably close to MLB readiness.

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