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NL East Notes: Cashner Trade Fallout, Nats, Familia, d’Arnaud

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Last summer’s partially deconstructed swap between the Marlins and Padres had far-reaching implications, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. After learning of issues with Colin Rea’s health and discovering that San Diego had failed to disclose certain medical information, Miami considered rescinding the entire deal — which the commissioner’s office offered to facilitate. But due to practical considerations and the apparent preferences of the league, the Fish instead worked out a deal to send Rea back to the Pads for prospect Luis Castillo, thus keeping Andrew Cashner in Miami and Josh Naylor (and others) in San Diego. That, in turn, prevented an alternative deal that would’ve sent Naylor to the Phillies for righty Jeremy Hellickson. There was fallout beyond that, as Rosenthal explains, including the fact that Hellickson ultimately received and accepted a qualifying offer from the Phils that he otherwise wouldn’t have been eligible for.

Here are some more NL East-focused notes:

  • As presently constructed, the Nationals have a strong core but questionable depth beyond it, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues. The problems are compounded by the health questions facing many of the Nats’ best players. Cameron suggests (as we’ve done here, as well) that Washington ought to have considered adding a quality, left-handed bat to share time with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth. Though that could still come to pass, the most obvious options are now off the market. Meanwhile, the team still arguably ought to bolster its late-inning relief corps and rotation depth.
  • The league’s investigation into domestic violence allegations against Mets closer Jeurys Familia is moving slowly, per Bob Klapisch of NorthJersey.com. With the criminal case dropped — in large part, it seems, due to a decision by his wife not to testify — the commissioner’s office is struggling to obtain information. While that won’t necessarily prevent a suspension, it is creating delay. According to Klapisch, it’s likely that the final penalty won’t be known until late in Spring Training.
  • The Mets are hopeful that backstop Travis d’Arnaud can restore his career trajectory after a tough 2016 season, David Lennon of Newsday writes. He’s already working with catching instructor Glenn Sherlock to work out the defensive kinks, though d’Arnaud also needs to prove he can stay healthy and productive at the plate.

Marlins Acquire Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea In Seven-Player Deal

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2:19pm: The Padres will cover around $2.275MM of the $2.5MM remaining on Cashner’s contract this year, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

12:33pm: The deal is official, with both clubs announcing it. There’s money heading from San Diego to Miami in the swap, per the announcement, though details remain unreported.

9:58am: After more than a month of searching for a starting pitcher to fill out the back of their rotation, the Marlins have succeeded in landing a pair of starters, reportedly agreeing to a trade that will net them right-handed starters Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea as well as righty reliever Tayron Guerrero from the Padres. In exchange, Miami is sending right-hander Jarred Cosart, top first base prospect Josh Naylor, minor league righty Luis Castillo and injured reliever Carter Capps, who underwent Tommy John earlier this year, to San Diego.

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Miami has been said to be frantically searching for an upgrade to the back of its rotation, and Cashner will provide the steady innings they’ve been seeking — with the upside for more — so long as he stays healthy. That’s not a given for Cashner, it should be noted; he’s missed time in 2016 with a hamstring strain and a neck strain, and the 2014 season saw him endure separate stints on the disabled list for soreness in his right shoulder and inflammation in his right elbow.

Injuries have, to some extent, played a role in Cashner’s weaker-than-expected results across the past two seasons. After pitching to a 2.87 ERA in 289 1/3 innings from 2013-14, Cashner posted a 4.34 ERA in 184 2/3 innings last season and is at 4.76 in 79 1/3 innings in 2016. However, he’s pitched quite well over his past three outings and still comes with some degree of upside. He is, after all, less than two years removed from a season that saw him deliver a strong 2.55 ERA in 123 1/3 innings, and he still averages just under 94 mph on his heater to go along with an above-average ground-ball rate. That last point is key for a Marlins infield that has plus defenders in Martin Prado at third base, the recently reinstated Dee Gordon at second base and defensive wizard Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop.

Rea, 26, is an entirely different type of asset for the Marlins. He’s in just his second season at the big league level and is controllable through the 2021 season, giving Miami a potential long-term piece in the rotation, though his early results have admittedly been mixed. The former 12th-round pick has a 4.81 ERA in 131 career innings at the Major League level, averaging 7.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 to go along with a 45.5 percent ground-ball rate. Rea, though, entered the 2015 season as the Padres’ No. 4 prospect at MLB.com and No. 7 prospect at Baseball America. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com noted at the time that the new Padres regime considered Rea to be a pleasant surprise, as he’d added velocity to his fastball, more power to his curveball and also improved his command. The changes gave Rea the upside of settling in as a third or fourth starter in the Majors, per the report, and while Rea isn’t there just yet, there certainly seems to be some untapped potential with which VP of pitching development Jim Benedict (who came over from the Pirates this winter) can work.

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Cashner and Rea will slot into a Marlins rotation that is fronted by ace Jose Fernandez and impressive sophomore Adam Conley. Miami, however, just lost its top offseason signing, left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, to the disabled list with an elbow sprain, further magnifying an already pressing  need to add to the rotation. Right-hander Tom Koehler can provide a steady stream of mostly reliable innings at the back of the rotation, and Rea seems likely to step into the starting mix ahead of the inexperienced Jose Urena in the fifth spot.

Guerrero, meanwhile, gives Miami a buy-low arm on a pitcher that rated among San Diego’s top 30 prospects entering the season but has had a dreadful start to his 2016 campaign. Guerrero, 25, posted a very strong 3.05 ERA and punched out 61 hitters in 56 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year, but control problems have always been an issue for him, and he’s become more hittable in 2016. This year, he’s sporting a 5.30 ERA in 35 2/3 innings between those same levels. While his strikeout and walk rates are similar to those of his 2015 campaign, he’s allowed considerably more hits and been more homer-prone this year. Guerrero offers a blistering fastball and the potential for an above-average slider but is something of a project for the Fish. He did make his big league debut earlier this year, though, and if Miami can get him back on track he could conceivably add a very live arm to their bullpen later this season.

The loss of both Cashner and Rea leaves the rebuilding Padres rather thin in the rotation, especially with Tyson Ross still on the DL due to his season-long shoulder woes, Robbie Erlin out for the year due to Tommy John surgery and Erik Johnson (who came over in the trade that removed James Shields from the San Diego rotation) also on the disabled list due to a right flexor sprain. Incredibly, the Padres have traded away nearly their entire Opening Day rotation, as Ross is the only remaining member (and likely only remains due to his injury status). The Friars, for now, are left with Edwin Jackson, Christian Friedrich and Rule 5 righty Luis Perdomo in their rotation, and they will presumably be joined by Cosart.

The 26-year-old Cosart, who had made just one start for the Marlins since returning from Triple-A, will go through yet another change of scenery in hopes of finally capitalizing on the potential that made him a consensus top 100 prospect from 2011-13. Originally drafted by the Phillies, he went to Houston in the original Hunter Pence trade and then to Miami alongside Enrique Hernandez in exchange for Jake Marisnick, Colin Moran and a competitive balance draft pick. Cosart has shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors and even posted a 3.69 ERA in 180 1/3 big league innings back in 2014, but he’s never been able to string much success together. He’ll bring plenty of grounders to the table (career 55.3 percent ground-ball rate), but he’s never missed many bats despite averaging 94 mph on his fastball (5.6 K/9) and hasn’t shown great control either (4.3 BB/9).

San Diego, though, will have some time to try to get Cosart on track. He entered the season with two years and 20 days of service time, and he’ll fall shy of the 152 days of big league service he’d have needed to reach three years of Major League service. As such, Cosart will be controlled through the 2020 season.

The addition of Capps to the deal is a high-upside wild card for the Padres. Capps broke out as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers last season, posting a 1.16 ERA with a 58-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 31 innings of work. With a fastball that averaged 98.1 mph and appeared even faster due to delivery that was as controversial as it was unorthodox — the legality of Capps’ delivery came into question on multiple occasions in 2015 — Capps had all of the makings of an elite bullpen arm before his UCL gave out in Spring Training. If he rehabs and comes back looking anything like the 2015 version of himself, the Friars will be a legitimate relief ace on their hands.

The top-ranked prospect in this deal is Naylor — the No. 12 overall pick in the 2015 draft and the No. 100 prospect in Major League Baseball according to Baseball America’s midseason Top 100 list. MLB.com rated Naylor second among Marlins farmhands on its midseason update to Miami’s prospect rankings, placing him only behind 2016 first-rounder Braxton Garrett. The 19-year-old Naylor has held his own despite being well below the average age of competitors in the Class-A South Atlantic League this season, batting .269/.317/.430 with nine homers, 24 doubles, two triples and 10 stolen bases. His 5.9 percent walk rate isn’t wowing anyone just yet, but he’s shown a knack for making contact, striking out at a respectable 16.7 percent clip against older competition. The 10 steals are somewhat of a surprise for a 6’0″, 225-pounder that is said to lack speed, though he could see that stolen base total come down as he continues to progress throughout the minors (especially considering he’s still just 19 and could add further weight/size). Based on his bat alone, Naylor would probably be a more highly regarded prospect; MLB.com’s report on him states that his bat could be “special,” praising his plus-plus raw power and strong contact skills. However, Naylor is seen as a first baseman only, and a below-average one at that, with very little speed, meaning that scouts feel he’ll be a bat-first type of player that needs to hit to provide everyday value.

Castillo was sixth among Marlins farmhands on Baseball America’s midseason update of their top prospects and eighth on MLB.com’s midseason Marlins rankings. The 23-year-old moved from the bullpen to the rotation for the first time last season at Class-A and has pitched very well in Class-A Advanced, working to a 2.25 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate this season. BA notes that Castillo’s fastball has touched 101 mph and sits in the 96-97 mph range, adding that he shows feel for a changeup and a slider with some depth. MLB.com suggests that he’s no sure thing to stick in a rotation but adds that he has the stuff to be a power arm near the back of a bullpen if a move back to relief work ultimately proves necessary.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the Marlins had a deal to acquire Cashner (via Twitter). Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that Rea was going to the Marlins as well (also via Twitter) . FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that Naylor was part of the return. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweeted that a member of the big league roster was headed to San Diego prior to reports of Cosart’s inclusion. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported Castillo’s inclusion (Twitter link), and ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported that Cosart was in the deal as well (on Twitter). The inclusion of Capps and Guerrero were the final pieces of the puzzle, both reported by Rosenthal (Twitter link).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Rumors: Marlins, Tigers, Nats, Giants, Walker, Gomez

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark examines the seeming dearth of available starters on this year’s market, with several unnamed executives telling him it seems to be harder than at any point in recent memory to pry arms loose. He goes through several possible reasons for that — including, most interestingly, the fact that the infusion of money into baseball has reduced the financial pressure on smaller-market teams to sell off assets at the deadline. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports also tackles the subject, suggesting that the standoff between buyers and sellers could topple over on deadline day — possibly resulting in a wild finish.

While we wait for the tension to break, here’s the latest on a market that is proving difficult to project:

  • Even as the Marlins reportedly make their pitch for Andrew Cashner, the team is continuing to look far and wide for their rotation needs, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. He adds three more names that the club has asked about: Edinson Volquez of the Royals, Matt Shoemaker of the Angels, and Julio Teheran of the division-rival Braves. Nothing in the Miami system is off limits, per the report, including first baseman Josh Naylor and righty Luis Castillo — each of whom have been asked about quite frequently by other clubs, per Jackson. Rival clubs get the sense that the Marlins are “desperate” to bolster their rotation, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets, but it’s still not entirely clear how the team will make that happen given its thin farm. Of course, as the examples of Naylor and Castillo show, the system isn’t devoid of talent, but it would certainly sting to part with the organization’s best pieces, and it’s not at all clear that those players would be enough to score a quality, controllable arm.
  • Another team that hopes to add arms but has limitations in doing so is the Tigers, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Detroit is said not to have much payroll flexibility, and is also generally regarded as having a weaker farm system. At the same time, it’s probably wise not to count out the Mike Illitch-owned Tigers, who have made many bold strikes in the past and sit in reasonable striking distance of both the AL Central and the Wild Card at six games over .500.
  • After missing on Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals should only step up their efforts to upgrade, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post opines. While GM Mike Rizzo has undeniably been a shrewd dealmaker, he and the organization have largely resisted major in-season additions, and Kilgore says that this is not the year to be stingy with prospects. Washington has been tied mostly to relief targets, and finding a big-time late-inning arm surely remains a priority. That said, things still seem rather wide open for the Nats, who aren’t overrun with needs but seem interested in a big addition. After all, the club even reportedly asked the Blue Jays whether star outfielder Jose Bautista might be available, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • Despite moving to add infielder Eduardo Nunez tonight, the Giants are still focused on pitching, GM Bobby Evans tells reporters including Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (via Twitter). It’s hard to draw a bead on the Giants’ favored targets, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick says they’re “blanketing” the market for starters and relievers (Twitter links). But the team is among may that have reached out to the Royals, so you can at least add some hypothetical new names to the long list of possibilities for San Francisco.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw Josh Osich wasn’t terribly pleased that he was placed on the DL with a seemingly minor forearm issue, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He was replaced with fellow lefty Matt Reynolds, leading the Chronicle’s Henry Schulman to suggest on Twitter that the organization hopes to get a look at the 31-year-old before the deadline. Reynolds has appeared in five major league seasons and had some success at times. And it’s hard to ignore his current Triple-A line: over 32 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.11 ERA with 12.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 while allowing only 16 hits.
  • Mariners righty Taijuan Walker is drawing “strong interest” around the game, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It’s still somewhat difficult to imagine the organization parting with the talented hurler at this particular point in time, not least of which because he’s currently on the DL with a foot injury. Plus, GM Jerry Dipoto strongly suggested just recently that a sell-off shouldn’t be expected. But Nightengale says that Walker is scheduled for a bullpen on Friday at Wrigley Field that is expected to be watched by opposing teams’ scouts.
  • The Phillies “don’t seem motivated” to trade reliever Jeanmar Gomez, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets. On the one hand, that’s a bit surprising given that the emergent righty has worked to a strong 2.83 ERA in 47 2/3 innings while largely thriving in the closer’s role. On the other, Philadelphia has no real reason to part with its final year of control if it can’t draw an interesting return, as Gomez will likely provides some affordable (albeit increasingly expensive) stability next year.

Latest On Melvin Upton, Andrew Cashner

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SUNDAY: The list of teams interested in Cashner is close to 10, writes Heyman. That includes the previously reported Marlins, who have discussed many of their top prospects – including first baseman Josh Naylor – with the Padres, Heyman hears. The surging Astros are also in the Cashner sweepstakes.

SATURDAY, 11:51am: The Marlins are also still discussing Cashner with the Padres, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

10:17am: The Giants have also checked in on Cashner, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though San Francisco is more focused on adding bullpen help before the deadline.  The Dodgers don’t appear to be in the mix for Cashner as they “seem to be aiming even higher” for a rotation upgrade, which Heyman speculates could be Chris Sale or one of the Rays’ starting pitchers.  In another Heyman tweet, he writes that the Orioles and Blue Jays are thought to be the leaders for Upton, though the two clubs are also exploring bigger deals that could involve Upton and other Padres changing teams.

8:48am: The Orioles are chasing two high-profile names from the Padres, as they are looking at Melvin Upton and Andrew Cashner in separate trade talks, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Reports surfaced yesterday that the O’s and Padres were discussing a swap that would’ve sent Ubaldo Jimenez and a prospect to San Diego for Upton.  That deal would be something of a fit of large contracts, whereas for Cashner, Rosenthal notes that San Diego is asking for two prospects.

Interestingly, Baltimore isn’t the only AL East team linked to these two Padres stars, as the Blue Jays have also discussed Upton and Cashner with San Diego, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The Padres are trying to get the division rivals into a bidding war over Upton, though it isn’t certain if Toronto would have interest in the outfielder if Cashner wasn’t part of the deal.  Even the Cashner talks with Toronto may not have much momentum, as Rosenthal notes that the Jays and Padres have differing opinions on Cashner’s value.

As of yesterday, the Padres were telling other teams that they were close to finalizing an Upton trade, which at the time was perceived as a possible negotiating tactic on the Friars’ part.  A rival official for a team not interested in Upton observed to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the Padres were “trying to get someone else to bite before they are forced to send him to the one club ready to move on him.”

Given Rosenthal’s subsequent tweets, it would seem that Toronto could be the “someone else” in that description while the O’s could be the more eager suitor for Upton’s services.  Then again, Upton makes sense as an outfield upgrade on a few different contenders.  For instance, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Indians have also talked to the Padres about Upton over the last few weeks, though nothing is close on that front.

Of the three teams mentioned, the Orioles would seem to have the clearest need for Upton given their left field void (as both Joey Rickard and Hyun Soo Kim are on the DL), plus Upton could also provide cover in center behind Adam Jones.  Jimenez’s contract also helps offset the large amount of money still owed on Upton’s contract, as the outfielder is set to earn $16.45MM in 2017 and roughly $5.31MM remaining this season; Cleveland and Toronto don’t have any Jimenez-esque large salaries that could be dealt to create payroll space.

The uncertainty surrounding Michael Brantley’s status could certainly put Cleveland in the market for outfield help, though the Tribe have been getting some very solid contributions from their current outfield mix of Tyler Naquin, Jose Ramirez, Rajai Davis and Lonnie Chisenhall.  The Blue Jays are pretty set in the outfield with Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista (who could return from the DL as early as Monday), so Upton doesn’t really have a regular spot.  Toronto could use Edwin Encarnacion more regularly at first to get Upton into left field and Saunders at DH, depending on matchups.

Cashner, meanwhile, has been linked to several teams in need of rotation help.  The O’s don’t have a terribly deep minor league system, and while Cashner wouldn’t necessarily command top-tier prospects in return, it’s still possible Baltimore could be outbid by another suitor (such as the Rangers) who simply have more quality minor leaguers to offer.  Cashner fits as a big upgrade for the Orioles’ struggling pitching staff, and he also fits in Toronto given that Aaron Sanchez may yet be moved to the bullpen to control his innings.

Marlins Nearing Deal With First-Rounder Josh Naylor

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3:34pm: Naylor has agreed to a $2.25MM bonus, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports on Twitter.

8:43am: The Marlins are close to signing first-round pick Josh Naylor, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The left-handed-hitting first baseman out of Ontario graduated from high school yesterday, meaning that he’s now officially able to sign a contract with Miami. While the slot value for Naylor’s No. 12 overall selection is $3,051,800, Frisaro hears that Naylor will sign for a bonus between $2MM and $2.5MM.

Naylor’s selection was the first big surprise of the 2015 draft. While some had expected the powerful teenager to go perhaps in the late first round, Miami’s selection of him was unexpected at the time. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel rated Naylor as the 28th prospect in this year’s class, and he was more optimistic than many other rankings. Naylor placed 49th on Keith Law’s Top 100 at ESPN, 59th on the Top 200 of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and 61st on Baseball America’s Top 500.

Listed at 6’1″ and 225 pounds, Naylor’s calling card is his raw power, which receives grades of 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale from ESPN, MLB.com and Fangraphs in the linked reports, with BA labeling it plus-plus (70). ESPN feels that Naylor has a plus-plus arm that scouts would love to use in right field, but he lacks the foot speed to adequately cover the outfield. Naylor’s speed grades range from 20 to 35, which is enough for him to be labeled a first-base-only prospect. As such, he’ll likely have to tap into that huge raw power in order for him to become a regular player for the Marlins down the line.

According to Frisaro, Naylor will begin his pro career with the Marlins Gulf Coast League affiliate. An official announcement of the signing from the Marlins could come as soon as today, he adds.

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