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Jose Berrios

Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander

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As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….

  • The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty’s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
  • Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.

Twins Haven’t Recently “Initiated” Extension Talks With Jose Berrios

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Though the Twins are getting some notable reinforcements back from the injured list in the coming days, the 26-39 club has a big hill to climb to even approach the postseason race.  With this in mind, speculation has swirled around the Twins as a trade deadline seller, and Jose Berrios stands out as a major potential trade chip depending on how big of a reload Minnesota wishes to make.

Berrios has one final year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.  As to whether or not his time in Minnesota could continue beyond the 2022 season, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link) that the Twins haven’t “initiated any talks in recent weeks” with Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman about a potential contract extension.  Of course, this might not be that surprising a detail considering that most players prefer to not discuss contractual matters in-season.

If such extension talks did place, it would seem that the Twins would be making such overtures as something of a last-ditch effort to lock up Berrios, and if a deal couldn’t be reached, the club would be more open to moving him prior to the July 30 trade deadline.  The issue with that scenario, however, is that Minnesota isn’t under any immediate pressure to make a decision on Berrios’ future, since he is still under contract through 2022.  The Twins could wait until the offseason to shop Berrios to a wider market of interested teams, or they could take the time to revisit extension talks heading into their final year of control over Berrios.

Even if neither a trade or an extension is worked out, it wouldn’t be out of the question that the Twins would just keep Berrios in the fold for 2022.  Despite this season’s struggles, it would seem like Minnesota is still planning to regroup and make another run at contention next year, so Berrios has plenty of value in the Twins’ own rotation going forward.

The 27-year-old Berrios is having another solid season, with a 3.49 ERA/3.61 SIERA and an above-average strikeout rate (26%) and walk rate (6.4%) over 77 1/3 innings.  The overall Statcast metrics aren’t quite as positive, as Berrios’ xwOBA and hard-hit ball numbers have been subpar for the second consecutive season, but the righty has continued to be a durable and effective arm in the front end of Minnesota’s rotation.

Back in March 2019, Berrios said the Twins had made him an extension offer that he declined, though he was open to more negotiations.  “We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year,” Berrios said.  Rather than a contract extension, the two sides went to a hearing the next spring to determine Berrios’ salary for his first arb-eligibility, with the Twins winning the hearing and paying Berrios $4.025MM rather than his desired $4.4MM figure.  This past winter, the two sides reached a deal to avoid arbitration, with Berrios receiving a $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season.

Even with another raise in his final arb year, Berrios is still a very affordable option for any team looking for rotation help, which only elevates his trade value.  The Twins could be hard-pressed to decline if another club makes a truly spectacular trade offer for Berrios, despite his importance to the 2022 team.  Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker are all scheduled to be free agents this winter, so moving Berrios would create another hole for the Twins to address in their starting staff.

Twins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jose Berrios

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The Twins have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Jose Berrios, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’d filed for a $4.4MM salary but will now be paid at the $4.025MM figure submitted by Minnesota.

Berrios, 25, just wrapped up his first 200-inning season and turned in his third consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season, working to a career-best 3.68 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. The former No. 32 overall pick has emerged as Minnesota’s most effective starter since cementing himself as a big league regular, pitching to a combined 3.80 ERA with a strikeout per frame through 538 1/3 innings and earning a pair of All-Star bids along the way.

Berrios’ relatively affordable salary for the upcoming season only serves to underscore the difficulty that first-time-arbitration-eligible starters have had in moving the needle forward. Dallas Keuchel is still the only first-time-eligible starting pitcher to topple the $4.35MM benchmark set by Dontrelle Willis way back in 2006, and it took Keuchel winning a Cy Young Award to do so. Others starters who have been in position to best that mark (e.g. Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Nola) have instead opted for multi-year deals.

That there’s only one example of a pitcher besting Willis’ mark — and that it took extraordinary circumstances — emphatically drives home the reason that teams are willing to go to hearings over what appear to be such trivial sums. The Twins, like other clubs that have drawn a hard line in comparable situations, surely care less about immediate cost savings than they do about preserving the standards that allow arbitration salaries to remain so manageable.

If the Twins (and every other club) simply conceded and met the player in the middle, those contractual agreements would be used as data points in future arbitration negotiations. Were it not for teams continually drawing a hard line, the Twins and Berrios would’ve been arguing over figures much greater than the ones discussed in today’s hearing. That’s not to suggest that teams are in the right or wrong to take such firm stances — even against their best players — but rather to point out that their motivation for doing so is rather obvious when considering the full breadth of the arbitration mechanism.

As for Berrios, he doesn’t hold any hard feelings toward the Twins organization, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio tweets. Berrios has made it clear in the past that he’s keenly aware of the business side of the equation. He said as much when revealing last spring that he turned down an extension overture from the Twins, and it’s surely no coincidence that the number he filed would’ve bested the aforementioned Willis benchmark — even if only by a narrow margin of $50,000. Again, every slight step forward would factor into future negotiations for other first-time-eligible pitchers.

The Twins and Berrios can, of course, continue to discuss a long-term deal. Minnesota controls him through the 2022 season, leaving plenty of time to broker a deal. Given his previous quotes about the financial side of the game — “I have to manage my business, too. … We’re waiting for the best for both sides,” Berrios told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune last spring — it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be signing on for a team-friendly discount.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Jose Berrios Declined Extension Offer From Twins

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The Twins have already extended a pair of young players this winter, inking both Max Kepler (five years, $35MM) and Jorge Polanco (five years, $25.75MM) to long-term deals, and they at least made an attempt to hammer out a long-term arrangement with Jose Berrios as well. The young righty tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he and his representatives at Wasserman turned away an extension offer this winter.

Berrios, however, didn’t rule out signing a contract that would extend his stay in Minnesota — perhaps even before Opening Day 2019. “I have to manage my business, too,” said the 24-year-old. “…We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.”

Miller lists the recent extensions signed by Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) and Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) as data points, though it’s not clear that Berrios’ camp is seeking that type of guarantee. Furthermore, Severino was a Super Two player when he signed that deal, and Nola was had already reached three years of MLB service. Both players were already eligible for arbitration and were in line for salaries of at least $4.4MM for the coming season, whereas Berrios has two years, 44 days of MLB service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter. As such, signing a comparable contract to either Nola or Severino would set a new precedent for the two-to-three service class.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored when looking at a potential extension for the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland, Berrios finds himself among a group of quality players with two-plus years of service who still seem likely to fall shy of record-setting money. Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM extension, signed on the heels of a Cy Young season, is the largest ever for a non-Super-Two pitcher with between two and three years of MLB service. Berrios’ case, clearly, isn’t as strong; historically speaking, he’s more in line with a large group of starters who signed in the realm of $30MM over five years (though many of those contracts are close to a decade old). It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that Berrios’ asking price and the parameters put forth by the Twins earlier this winter aren’t known.

Berrios had an awful rookie campaign as a 22-year-old but has since settled in as very solid big league starter — one whose raw stuff and former prospect pedigree create optimism that there’s still a fair bit of improvement left in the tank. Dating back to 2017, the Puerto Rican-born righty has worked to a 3.86 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 338 innings. He’ll take the hill for Minnesota in his first career Opening Day start this season as the Twins hope the long touted right-hander can take another step forward and keep them in competition for a division title in the AL Central.

If Berrios is able to do that, he’ll vault himself into another tier of earning potential. At that point, he’d line up more comparably with Nola’s $45MM guarantee or the $51MM guarantee attained by the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, the latter of which stands out as the largest deal ever promised to a pitcher with between three and four years of MLB service (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). For the time being, Miller’s colleague La Velle E. Neal III reports (via Twitter) that Berrios agreed to a one-year contract worth $620K for the upcoming season — his final pre-arbitration salary before at least entering the arb process next winter. Minnesota controls Berrios through the 2022 campaign.

Jose Berrios Hires Wasserman Media Group

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Twins righty Jose Berrios has hired the Wasseman Media Group to represent him, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports.

Though he is not slated to reach arbitration eligibility this offseason, Berrios may still have some contractual matters to address with the Minnesota organization. He negotiated with the club last winter, though no deal was reached, and certainly could again be targeted for an extension over the offseason to come.

Berrios, 24, has now turned in two-straight solid campaigns in Minnesota after struggling in his 2016 debut. Through 28 starts in 2018, he owns a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Those aren’t dominant numbers, to be sure, but Berrios arguably still has some untapped upside. He has boosted his swinging-strike rate to 11.1% this year, though he’s also permitting more home runs (1.29 per nine; 13.7% HR/FB) than he did last season.

As Berardino notes, Berrios would hardly be the first 2+ service-class pitcher to contemplate a long-term deal. There’s a long tradition of contracts for such hurlers, many of which have fallen in the same general price range and structure. Where Berrios fits in that line of precedent is up for debate — and, of course, negotiation.

Berrios had previously been a client of MDR Sports Management. MLBTR’s Agency Database has been updated to reflect his new representation.

Twins Pursued Offseason Extensions With Multiple Young Players

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1:37pm: Rosario is one of the players who turned down an offer, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets.

9:30am: The Twins were long rumored to be chatting with center fielder Byron Buxton about a new contract this spring. But it seems he was not the only target for an organization that was evidently hoping to enhance the value of some existing player control rights.

Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter, the club pursued long-term arrangements with four other young players as well. Two of those targets are identified in the report: righty Jose Berrios and outfielder Max Kepler.

The remaining pair is not known, though perhaps it’s not unreasonable to surmise that one of them was shortstop Jorge Polanco, who had a solid 2017 campaign but ended up being suspended for half of the 2018 season. Outfielder Eddie Rosario seems to be another likely candidate, as the front office has made clear they see him “as part of the core.” Star third bagger Miguel Sano would also be a hypothetical target, no doubt, though perhaps he was not likely to be approached during an offseason in which he was under league investigation for an alleged assault.

Obviously, none of those discussions led to agreements. Perhaps, though, they could still set the stage for eventual deals.

Buxton, who is entering his final season before beginning the arbitration process, was the most obvious target from the get-go. He turned in a breakout second half at the plate and was an outstanding defender and baserunner all season long. But those previously reported talks seemingly fizzled, leaving the team to renew the 24-year-old’s contract late this spring.

It’s hardly surprising to hear of interest in Berrios, either, as he also overcame some initial MLB struggles to turn in an impressive 2017 effort. He’s a year further from the arb process (and free agency) than Buxton, but that also surely left the team intrigued at the potential value it might achieve. Berrios said a month ago that he had not been approached, so it appears that the chatter took place in the interim.

Then, there’s Kepler, who’s in an in-between position from the other two players in terms of service time. He’s on track to reach Super Two status next winter but, like Berrios, can’t accrue more than six years of MLB time until the end of the 2022 season. The 25-year-old has, to date, been a solid performer, turning in two seasons as a roughly average hitter, solid defender, and good baserunner at a corner outfield spot. Kepler’s profile is not quite as exciting as those of his aforementioned teammates, but at the right price he could also certainly make sense for a long-term deal, particularly if the club believes there’s still some developmental upside remaining to be tapped into.

In any event, none of those players have inked contracts prior to the start of the current campaign. While something could, in theory, come together at any time, Passan does say that all of the players in question turned down the offers they were presented at the time.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Moustakas, CarGo, Twins, Tigers

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The latest out of the AL Central…

  • The White Sox have recently been linked to a pair of high-profile free agents in third baseman Mike Moustakas and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, but there’s “very little, if anything” to suggest they’re truly interested in either player, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. As things stand, the Pale Hose are projected to enter the season with Yolmer Sanchez at third and Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia and Nicky Delmonico at corner outfield/designated hitter – either of which could be spots for Gonzalez if the team does pursue him. However, general manager Rick Hahn suggested a couple weeks back that he’s content with the rebuilding club’s in-house DH choices.
  • The Twins aren’t in any rush to sign young right-hander Jose Berrios to a contract extension, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Berrios informed Berardino that the Twins haven’t approached him about a new deal, which makes sense considering they’re in no imminent danger of losing him. The 23-year-old won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign, and then he’s slated to go through the arb process three times. While Berrios is already under Minnesota’s control for the long haul, he’d still understandably welcome the security of an extension. “This is the team that drafted me (in 2012) and gave me the opportunity to play in the major leagues,” said Berrios. “If they want to (sign) me for a long time, I’d be excited about that.”  A first-round pick in 2012, Berrios endured a disastrous debut in 2016 (8.02 ERA, 7.65 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings), but he rebounded last year to log a 3.89 ERA with 8.59 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 over 145 2/3 frames.
  • Trade interest in Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has been nonexistent, even though they’re “willing to assume some of the financial burden” of his contract, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Given that Cabrera owns one of the majors’ most onerous deals, doesn’t play a premium position and posted a shockingly poor 2017, his age-34 season, it’s no surprise he’s immovable. The future Hall of Famer is guaranteed a whopping $192MM through 2024, thanks to the eight-year, $248MM extension he signed in 2014. Cabrera was an MVP-caliber player when Detroit gave him that ill-fated pact, but he’s now coming off a season in which he batted a meager .249/.329/.399 with a noticeable power outage (16 home runs, .149 ISO) in 529 plate appearances.

Twins To Promote Jose Berrios

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The Twins will promote right-hander Jose Berrios to step into the rotation this Saturday, manager Paul Molitor told reporters after tonight’s game (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). While no longer a prospect in the technical sense of the word after pitching enough to lose his rookie eligibility last year, the 22-year-old Berrios remains one of the more promising young arms in the game.

Berrios reached the Majors around this time last season, but he struggled through multiple Major League stints in significant fashion, logging an 8.02 ERA through 58 1/3 innings. Berrios, however, was a mainstay on top 100 prospect lists following his selection with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2012 draft and has continually turned in dominant results in Triple-A.

After logging a 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 with a 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 111 1/3 innings there last season, Berrios has delivered 39 2/3 frames of 1.13 ERA ball with Rochester in 2017. His outstanding 39-to-8 K/BB ratio through those six starts also creates cause for optimism.

Berrios will step into a murky Twins rotation that has Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago and Phil Hughes in the top three spots, with journeyman Nick Tepesch currently holding down the fifth slot. Given the uncertainty in their starting corps, Berrios looks to have every opportunity to lock down a permanent rotation spot if he can get off to a good start this time around.

Certainly, the Twins are counting on Berrios to do just that and to help to anchor their rotation for the next several years. He’s controllable through the 2022 campaign and doesn’t stand to be eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2019 campaign. Those timelines, of course, could change if Berrios is optioned back to the minors, but with 74 days of big league service entering the year, he needs just 98 days in the Majors to reach a full year of service time and remain on pace for those targets.

Knocking Down The Door: Berrios, Leonard, Mahle, Moore, O’Hearn

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The latest installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes Eric Hosmer’s possible heir apparent, a pair of Double-A pitchers looking to make the jump to an MLB rotation, a dominant Triple-A starter who could be facing off against the Red Sox this weekend, and the lone player from the big December 2012 trade between the Rays and Royals who has yet to reach the big leagues.

Here’s a look at five Minor Leaguers who are currently “Knocking Down The Door” to the Major Leagues.

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester)

With a current opening in the Twins’ rotation—Adalberto Mejia was optioned to Triple-A after his last start—it’s likely that a Triple-A pitcher will be called up later this week. One glance at Berrios’ stats (1.09 ERA, 33 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 35 K) after his latest gem—he pitched two-hit ball over eight scoreless innings on Sunday—and he appears to be the obvious choice. But this might not be the “slam dunk” it appears to be.

The 22-year-old Berrios has been dominating Triple-A hitters since 2015. It just didn’t carry over to the big leagues during his rookie season (8.02 ERA in 14 starts), which is why the Twins will want to be extra cautious before calling him up again. If they feel that he’s made the proper adjustments that will allow him to succeed and remain on the MLB roster for good, there’s a good chance he’ll be pitch against the Red Sox this weekend.

Twins Depth Chart

 

Patrick Leonard, 3B/1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A Durham) 

Apr 1, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Patrick Leonard (61) at bat at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The lack of production against left-handed pitching from platoon players Peter Bourjos, Daniel Robertson and Rickie Weeks and a nagging foot injury to Evan Longoria—he’s out of the lineup on Monday—could have the Rays on the lookout for some help in the near future. They could find it down in Triple-A where Leonard, a right-handed hitting third baseman who has also played first base and the corner outfield spots, is putting up huge numbers.

In the midst of a nine-game hitting streak (17-for-36), the 24-year-old Leonard has his slash line up to .412/.474/.553 with two homers, six doubles and five stolen bases. He was named the International League Player of the Month. An MLB call-up would top that honor.

Rays Depth Chart

 

Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola)

Part of a rebuilding team’s plan should be, and often is, to stock up on inexpensive veteran arms to eat up innings at the big league level while young prospects develop down on the farm. The Reds did not make that a strong priority in the offseason and the injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan have only exacerbated the issue. As a result, at least two rotation spots could continue to be revolving doors throughout the season and any pitcher in the upper minors can force themselves into the mix.

Pitching a perfect game, as the 22-year-old Mahle did on April 22nd, should have placed him squarely on the Reds’ radar. He followed that up by throwing six shutout innings in last start, lowering his ERA to 0.55 with an astounding 0.52 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. While Triple-A Louisville would seem to be a more likely next destination for Mahle, the Reds could opt to ride the hot hand and find out if he’s ready to help out now.

Reds Depth Chart

 

Andrew Moore, SP, Seattle Mariners (Double-A Jackson) 

It was Chase De Jong who was given the first crack at Felix Hernandez’s rotation spot and, based on the results (2.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 H), he might not get another start anytime soon. There are some decent options in Triple-A with MLB experience, including Chris Heston and Christian Bergman, but their best answer for some rotation stability could be a level below.

Since a promotion to Double-A Jackson last May, Moore has allowed more than two earned runs in only six of 24 appearances (23 starts) and has pitched at least six innings in fourteen of those games. That rare combination of consistency, durability and efficiency is why the 22-year-old right-hander could make a successful jump into the Major League rotation.

Mariners Depth Chart

 

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals (Triple-A Omaha)

Despite nine straight losses and an MLB worst 7-16 record, it’s probably a bit too early to write off the Royals and deem them “sellers” in early May. Even if they were, they’d have a difficult time finding a good deal for struggling first baseman Eric Hosmer, who has two extra-base hits—one double and one triple—and a .573 OPS. That doesn’t mean it’s too early to get a look at his possible successor, O’Hearn, who had a .312/.361/.571 slash line, five homers and 10 multi-hit games in April.

Brandon Moss has shown some signs of life as of late (4-for-12, 2 HR in last three games), but he’s been a disappointment with a .617 OPS and 24 strikeouts in his first 68 plate appearances. Signed to a two-year, $12MM deal in the offseason, he’s not in danger of losing his roster spot, but he could lose at-bats to the left-handed hitting O’Hearn until Hosmer is traded.

Royals Depth Chart

 

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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