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Jose Abreu

Astros Sign José Abreu To Three-Year Contract

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The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

Abreu, 36 in January, has spent his entire big league career with the White Sox thus far, but it seemed likely as the season was winding down that they were ready to let him switch jerseys in 2023. With many other first base/designated hitter candidates on the roster, such as Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez, the thinking was that they would let Abreu walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere, which now appears to have come to pass.

Though the Sox were apparently willing to let him walk away, he continues to have excellent results at the plate. In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.

That was his ninth MLB season, with Abreu posting a wRC+ of 114 or higher in each of them. He got as high as 164 in 2020, winning Most Valuable Player in the American League in that shortened season. Despite the downturn in power this year, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league over the past decade or so. Since his debut in 2014, he has a 139 wRC+ for his career, with only 11 hitters posting a higher such number in that timeframe. Given his generally solid work at the plate but relatively older age, MLBTR predicted him to secure a contract of $40MM over two years, or $20MM per season. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he had already been given one earlier in his career.

The Astros were excellent in 2022, winning 106 regular season games and then storming through the playoffs to their second World Series title. First base was actually one of the few weak spots on the roster, as Yuli Gurriel suffered through a down year at the plate. After hitting .319/.383/.462 in 2021, he slumped down to .242/.288/.360 this year. The club acquired Trey Mancini at the deadline to try to bolster the position but it didn’t really work out as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the deal. Both players reached free agency at season’s end, leaving a vacancy for Abreu to step into. This signing potentially brings Gurriel’s tenure in Houston to an end after seven seasons, unless he’s willing to return in a lesser role as a pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter.

The Astros recently parted ways with general manager James Click amid reported disagreements between him and owner Jim Crane. It seems Crane is in no rush to replace Click, taking over the baseball decisions and seemingly content to continue doing so into the new year. Despite the unusual front office situation, they’ve continued to be quite active, re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and now adding Abreu, both on three-year deals.

Turning to the financials, the Astros currently have a 2023 payroll around $163MM and a competitive balance tax figure around $178MM, per Roster Resource. Their Opening Day payroll figure was $175MM last year and $188MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Abreu’s contract is in the predicted range of about $20MM per season, that would push their payroll up above $180MM and their CBT number close to $200MM. Though they’re getting close to their previous highs in spending, it stands to reason that they can push it a little bit this winter on the heels of a Championship run and all the extra revenues that go along with that. As for the CBT, the lowest threshold for 2023 will be $233MM, leaving them with plenty of remaining space even if they plan on avoiding going over.

For the White Sox, this marks the end of an era that lasted almost a decade. Vaughn is a natural first baseman whose attempts to move to the outfield went poorly. He produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating was also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved was among the bottom five. However, he hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115 while just 24 years old. The Sox surely hope that he can produce even better results as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching, especially without having to bother with worrying about his outfield defense in the future. Nonetheless, the club will be looking to improve on an 81-81 season while letting their best hitter depart, which won’t be an easy task.

For the Astros, their lineup was already extremely potent, featuring the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They’ve now added one of the best hitters in the league as they look to defend their World Series title in the year to come.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Abreu and the Astros were finalizing a deal, as well as the three-year term (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that the salary would be around $20MM per season. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that it would actually be $19.5MM per year. Heyman was first with the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Padres Have Jose Abreu As “A Top Priority”

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The Padres have been in contact with Jose Abreu and his representatives, and San Diego consider Abreu to be “a top priority” this offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter).  With Josh Bell, Wil Myers, and Brandon Drury all now free agents, the Padres have a vacancy at first base, making Abreu a logical target for the win-now team.

It has already been an active offseason for San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, as the Padres have make early strikes to re-sign both Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez.  More work on the pitching staff is still likely to come, yet the Padres could also surely use at least one more bat to bolster a lineup that was generally middle-of-the-pack leaguewide.  Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension will help in that regard, and his return could push Jake Cronenworth towards first base.  However, signing Abreu would reinforce the first base/DH spots and give the Padres more flexibility in deciding how they want to deploy Tatis, Cronenworth, and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield or perhaps elsewhere (i.e. Cronenworth at first base, or Tatis in the outfield).

The Padres have passed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, and the new contracts for Martinez and Suarez have put the team’s projected 2023 tax number at roughly $229.2MM — just shy of the $233MM threshold.  With a lot of winter shopping remaining, Preller could reduce this tax bill with some trades, yet it would certainly appear as though ownership doesn’t mind continued spending in search of the franchise’s first World Series title.

With the payroll in mind, Abreu is a particularly interesting target as a player who couldn’t require too lengthy a financial commitment.  Abreu is entering his age-36 season, and while he has continued to be a productive hitter, his age and a power dropoff in 2022 will likely limit him to perhaps two years at most on the open market.  MLBTR projects a two-year, $40MM deal for the former AL MVP, which would again put the Padres in tax territory but the club has a lot of money coming off the books after the 2023 season.

As a luxury tax payor, San Diego faces an increased penalty if it signs a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  To this end, Abreu carries extra value for the Padres since he wasn’t eligible for a QO, having already been issued an offer when he was last a free agent following the 2019 season.  Abreu ended up accepting that qualifying offer from the White Sox, and then a few weeks later signed a longer extension keeping him in Chicago through the 2022 campaign.

Ultimately working out as a three-year, $50MM commitment, that deal worked out well for both Abreu and the Sox, as the first baseman continued to hit into his mid-30’s.  Highlighted by his MVP showing in the shortened 2020 season, Abreu hit .289/.366/.489 with 64 homers over an even 1600 PA from 2020-22, helping Chicago reach the postseason in two of those years.  However, with young slugger Andrew Vaughn now vying for first base time and the Sox being overloaded with players in need of DH time, it appears as though the White Sox won’t be pursuing another deal with Abreu.

It sets the stage for Abreu to move on from the only Major League organization he has ever known.  After defecting from Cuba, Abreu signed a six-year, $68MM deal with the White Sox in October 2013, with Chicago outbidding several other teams.  One of the other interested teams was the Rangers, when Preller was working in the Texas front office.

Astros Prioritizing Anthony Rizzo In First Base Search

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The defending World Series champions head into the offseason without many holes on the roster, but first base is a notable exception. The Astros got just a .235/.285/.371 showing from the bat-first position this past season, and they’ve seen both Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini hit the open market.

With J.J. Matijevic and Yainer Díaz standing as the primary in-house options at the start of the offseason, the Astros are virtually certain to add first base help in some capacity. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Houston has set its sights on Anthony Rizzo as its top free agent target at the position. Rosenthal writes they’ve also expressed some interest in José Abreu and Gurriel as potential fallbacks.

Rizzo is back on the free agent market for the second straight offseason, although he’s facing a key decision in the first few days this time around. The Yankees tagged the left-handed hitter with a qualifying offer last week, just days after Rizzo declined a $16MM player option. Rizzo and his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management have until tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST to decide whether to accept that $19.65MM offer from New York or to turn it down — presumably in search of a multi-year pact.

Of course, the Yankees are among the most direct competitors to the Astros atop the American League. Houston and New York were top two in the Junior Circuit in regular season record and met in the AL Championship Series this year. The Astros handily controlled the Yankees in the postseason, but Rosenthal suggests the opportunity to poach a key bat from New York would be an added bonus for Houston as they try to remain atop the perch.

Doing so would require forfeiting a draft choice, as Rizzo would have to reject the Yankees’ QO to sign with Houston. The Astros neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing payments this year, so they’d be stripped of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space to sign a qualified free agent. The Yankees would receive a compensatory pick if Rizzo signed elsewhere, but that selection would only come after the fourth round since New York did surpass the CBT threshold this year.

It seems far likelier the Yankees would prefer to see Rizzo stick around for another season than to collect that modest compensation, although it remains to be seen whether the first baseman’s camp will feel he could top the terms of the qualifying offer. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee (with the aforementioned opt-out capability) last winter coming off a .248/.344/.440 showing. He had a more impressive .224/.338/.480 line this year, matching a career-high with 32 home runs. It’d be understandable if Rizzo were looking to beat last winter’s deal building off a better platform season, but he’s now 33 years old and would require teams forfeiting a draft choice to sign him this time around — or, in the Yankees’ case, relinquishing the chance at a compensatory pick were they to bring him back.

Aside from Rizzo, the top free agent first basemen available are Abreu and Josh Bell. Neither player was eligible for a qualifying offer this winter, but each could prove more costly than Rizzo. Even after a down second half, Bell looks likely to land a three or four-year deal heading into his age-30 season off a .266/.362/.422 showing between the Nationals and Padres. Abreu is soon to be 36 and will be limited to shorter-term offers, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox and could land the largest per-year salary of anyone in the first base class.

Gurriel and Mancini are among the lower-tier options, with the former having been a career-long member of the organization. Gurriel was the AL batting champion as recently as 2021, but he mustered only a .242/.288/.360 regular season showing this year before an excellent 12-game run in the playoffs. Mancini looks less likely to be back after struggling with the Astros following a deadline trade from the Orioles. Houston could also look to the trade market if they come up empty in free agency. They reportedly were in contact with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi before he was dealt to Pittsburgh, while Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses are among speculative trade candidates.

Hanging over all the Astros’ early offseason interest is a lack of front office clarity. After the team parted ways with general manager James Click last week, the team is without a presently stable baseball operations hierarchy. Owner Jim Crane is known to have taken an active role in the team’s decision-making, while Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported over the weekend that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus were handling day-to-day operations.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

White Sox Appear Likely To Move On From Jose Abreu

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For the past nine seasons, Jose Abreu has been a White Sox mainstay, serving as their primary first baseman and displaying uncanny durability by appearing in 93.6% of the team’s possible games. With his three-year, $50MM contract now drawing to a close, however, it’s fair to wonder whether the 35-year-old (36 in January) has played his final game with the ChiSox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote recently that the Sox plan to let Abreu move on in free agency this winter, and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times offers a similar sentiment, writing that the Sox are planning to move Andrew Vaughn back to his natural position, first base.

Certainly, there’s room for both Vaughn and Abreu on the roster, but such an arrangement inherently pushes the Sox to divide first base, designated hitter and corner outfield duties between Abreu, Vaughn and slugger Eloy Jimenez. Both Vaughn and Jimenez are among the game’s worst-ranked defenders in the outfield. Jimenez has posted -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average in 1957 career innings in the outfield. Vaughn effectively matched those totals (-14 DRS, -16 OAA) in 2022 alone, through just 645 innings. Moving on from Abreu would allow Vaughn to play his natural position with Jimenez seeing the lion’s share of playing time at designated hitter.

Also telling is Van Schouwen reporting that the Sox’ decision to re-sign Abreu the last time he reached free agency, following the 2019 season, was a decision directly from owner Jerry Reinsdorf. The front office “was not 100% behind” the idea of re-signing Abreu to a long-term deal, but Reinsdorf himself put forth the $50MM offer to Abreu after the slugger had accepted a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer.

On the one hand, that ownership-driven decision saddled the team with some less-than-ideal defensive alignments for the next three seasons. Jimenez was already established at the time of the signing. Vaughn had already been drafted and was widely expected to be a fast riser through the system. There was no clear defensive fit on the roster for all three.

On the other, Abreu more than justified the expenditure, playing all but 15 of the White Sox’ games over that three-year term and posting a combined .289/.366/.489 slash (137 wRC+). He was the decisive first-place finisher in 2020 American League MVP voting and followed that with a 30-homer campaign in 2021. Even this past season, as Abreu’s power dipped, he topped a .300 batting average and struck out in a career-low 16.2% of his plate appearances.

That said, merely writing off this year’s power outage would be an oversimplification. Abreu’s .304/.378/.466 batting line was still excellent (137 wRC+), but he turned in a career-high 47.9% ground-ball rate and elevated the ball with diminishing frequency as the summer wore on. He hit just four home runs after the All-Star break and only six from July 1 through season’s end. Two years removed from hitting 19 home runs in the truncated 60-game season and watching a Herculean 32.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard for home runs, Abreu hit just 15 homers through 157 games and saw that HR/FB ratio plummet to 9.6%.

Again, there’s little denying that Abreu’s end-of-the-day results in 2022 remained excellent, but they were buoyed by a .350 average on balls in play that a plodding slugger of his ilk will be hard-pressed to sustain, particularly if nearly half his batted balls are hit on the ground. Furthermore, the White Sox and any other potential suitors will be more concerned with what they project him to do moving forward. If there are doubts about his ability to elevate the ball and rediscover his power stroke, that’ll weigh on his earning power in free agency. However, if other clubs are confident in his ability to either repeat his 2022 output or, even better, reestablish himself as an annual 30-homer threat, then Nelson Cruz has proven that there could be healthy paydays even into a player’s early 40s.

The other element to consider in Abreu’s future with the Sox, or lack thereof, is the team’s already bloated payroll. Chicago has $121MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books, per Roster Resource, and that’s before exercising Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option and before outfielder AJ Pollock likely exercises a $10MM player option. Add in a projected $27.4MM in arbitration salaries (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), and the South Siders are at a payroll of roughly $170MM, not including pre-arbitration players to round out the 26-man roster.

This past season’s $193MM Opening Day payroll was a franchise record, and the Sox are within striking distance of that sum before even making a single move to address the 2023 roster. Viewed through that lens, it’s less surprising that the Sox appear poised to move on from their longtime first baseman, even if it won’t be an easy sell for fans who’ve grown to love Abreu during his nine years with the team.

Report: Cubs Interested In Jose Abreu

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The Cubs could be looking across town for a lineup boost, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link) reports that longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu may be a free agent target for the Wrigleyville club.  2022 was the last season of Abreu’s three-year, $50MM contract with the Sox.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series, the White Sox are the only team who can negotiate with the first baseman for the time being, and a new deal can’t be ruled out.  Abreu has often spoken of his desire to remain with the Sox for his entire career, and the front office has likewise regularly praised Abreu’s contributions on and off the field.  Abreu’s last trip to the open market ended up not being very open, as his representatives didn’t even talk to other teams before Abreu accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer prior to signing his three-year pact.

This time around, however, there is a little more doubt that Abreu will remain on the south side of Chicago.  Abreu recently said that there hadn’t been any extension talks with the White Sox front office, and with Abreu turning 36 years old in January, the Sox might prefer to move onto younger options at first base.  Shifting Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets to first base would help the White Sox defensively, and moving on from Abreu’s contract would also free up some payroll space for a team that already has quite a bit of money committed to the 2023 team.

However, since the team’s 2022 payroll already set a new franchise record by topping the $193MM mark, owner Jerry Reinsdorf may have no problem with continued spending to keep Abreu in the fold.  It’s not like Abreu is slowing down much in his mid-30’s — he hit .304/.378/.446 with 15 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2022, with strong hard-contact, strikeout, and walk rates.  Abreu’s power numbers took a drop, yet thanks to improvements in his batting average and on-base percentage, Abreu’s wRC+ was better in 2022 (137) than in 2021 (125).

Any number of teams will have interest in Abreu if he is indeed open to leaving the White Sox, and some of those suitors might be more clear-cut contenders than a Cubs team who went 74-88 in 2022.  Joining the Cubs would allow Abreu to keep his family in Chicago, of course, though it wouldn’t necessarily present a quicker path to winning baseball.

That said, there is enough flux in the NL Central that the Cubs could get back into the hunt with a big offseason, and has been some indication from both ownership and from the front office that the Cubs are turn back towards competing after two years of rebuilding.  Even last winter, the signings of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year contracts were indicative that the Cubs didn’t plan on staying in rebuild mode for too long, even if Stroman’s deal does contain an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

An Abreu signing might fit into this shorter-term model, as a three-year deal might be the most Abreu could hope to achieve as he heads into his age-36 season.  His continued production should still merit a comfortable average annual value on that next contract, yet teams will naturally be wary about committing too many years to a player of Abreu’s age.

Signing Abreu would add some veteran stability to the lineup, and immediately address a hole at first base.  Prospect Matt Mervis posted huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022 and seems ready for a shot at the big leagues, though entrusting Mervis with an everyday job right off the bat could be a risky move.  If both Abreu and Mervis were in the fold, the Cubs could toggle the two between first base and DH, allowing for both some rest days for Abreu and time for Mervis to show that he can do against MLB pitching.

José Abreu: No Talks With White Sox About New Contract

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White Sox first baseman José Abreu is on the verge of reaching free agency again, heading back to the open market once the offseason begins in November. He spoke to the media today and answered questions about his future, including one about whether he plans on returning to the field in 2023. “Of course, I love baseball,” Abreu said, as relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic. Abreu goes on to say that talks with the Chicago front office about a new contract have not taken place and that he will take some time to think about his next steps.

The fact that Abreu doesn’t want to rush this decision is fairly sensible, given that his previous foray into free agency was very brief. He was given a $17.8MM qualifying offer by the White Sox at the conclusion of the 2019 season and eventually accepted. One week later, he and the club agreed to a three-year, $50MM deal which replaced that QO. Instead, Abreu received a $5MM signing bonus, $11MM salary in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022.

That deal could hardly have gone much better for the club, with Abreu continuing to be an excellent hitter in that time. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit 19 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .317/.370/.617. That production was 64% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Abreu earned American League MVP honors while helping the club make the postseason for the first time since 2008.

He couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace over an entire season, but still had a great campaign in 2021. He launched another 30 long balls and slashed .261/.351/.481, wRC+ of 125. He sacrificed some power for average here in 2022 but still with great results overall. He’s gone over the fence 15 times so far while hitting .304/.378/.445 for a wRC+ of 137.

Given his continued production and strong reputation off the field as a clubhouse leader, it would be fairly logical for the Sox to want him back. However, there might also be a couple of factors working against that course of action. For one thing, there’s the team’s budget. The White Sox set a franchise record by running out an Opening Day payroll of $129MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but then vaulted way past that here in 2022 by getting to $193MM.

There’s already about $121MM committed to next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, but with some key expenses not yet factored in. Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM option is a lock to be exercised while Lucas Giolito will get a raise via arbitration. He made $7.45MM this year and will likely get above eight figures for 2023. Those two contracts will get the club into the $145MM range while still not including arbitration salaries for Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and others. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level this year, they could certainly fit in a contract for Abreu, though that would leave them with fewer resources to address other areas of need such as the pitching staff. Yesterday, general manager Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that the club was likely to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, seemingly a reflection of the club’s payroll situation.

There’s also the fact that the Sox have a potential in-house replacement for Abreu already on the roster in the form of Andrew Vaughn. He is in just his second season in the majors and has hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115. That’s a bit below what Abreu has done in recent years, though Vaughn is still just 24 years old and could potentially still have room to grow.

There’s a big problem with Vaughn’s current role on the team, however, which is his glove. A first baseman in college and in the minors, Vaughn moved to the outfield due to Abreu already being entrenched as the team’s everyday option at first. The move has not suited Vaughn at all, as he’s produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating is also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved is among the bottom five.

Due to that horrid work in the field, Vaughn is giving back all of his offensive production and then some. Despite being an above-average hitter, he’s actually been a sub-replacement level player this year, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. They say that Vaughn’s fWAR for the season is -0.4, while Baseball Reference has him at an even zero. Perhaps it’s worth it for the Sox to consider letting Abreu walk and moving Vaughn back to his natural position, as that would both allow Vaughn to become a more productive member of the team and also free up resources to address other areas of the roster.

Of course, the club could also consider re-signing Abreu and then trading Vaughn, though that path is a little less smooth.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at this year’s crop of free agent first basemen, with Abreu coming in at the top of the class alongside Josh Bell. Although Abreu is turning 36 in January, his continued success at the plate will surely lead to multi-year deals with a significant salary. Supposing Chicago does re-sign Abreu, they would then have to find a trade partner willing to give up cheap pitching for a first baseman, which may not be easy.

However it plays out, keeping the same arrangement in 2023 seems like something the Sox should avoid. Despite a roster loaded with talent, the club disappointed this year by slumping to an 80-80 record so far and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Defense was likely a big factor, as the team-wide DRS of -32 is one of the five worst in the league, their -16 OAA one of the ten worst and their -41.1 UZR dead last.

Jose Abreu Day-To-Day With Bruised Knee, X-Rays Negative

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Jose Abreu was in visible pain after being hit in the left knee by a JT Chargois pitch during today’s 3-2 White Sox loss to the Mariners, but the reigning AL MVP appears to have avoided a worst-case scenario.  The Sox announced that Abreu had suffered a bruised knee, and that x-rays were negative.

Abreu had to be removed for a pinch-runner after his HBP in the sixth inning of the first game of the doubleheader, and obviously wasn’t in Chicago’s lineup for Game 2.  Andrew Vaughn replaced Abreu at first base and Yasmani Grandal played first in the second game, and these two are likely to see the bulk of first-base duties while Abreu is recovering, or if a stint on the 10-day injured list is ultimately required.

As MLB.com’s Scott Merkin notes, Abreu has had to deal with several minor injuries this season, which could explain his dropoff in production from his big 2020 campaign.  Abreu’s 111 wRC+ is still above average, but is hitting a comparatively modest .244/.323/.435 with 12 home runs over an even 300 plate appearances.  It’s fair to wonder (as White Sox manager Tony La Russa recently did) whether or not these accumulated knocks were taking their toll on Abreu, since he entered today’s action with only a .523 OPS and one homer over his last 98 PA.  It could be that the Sox decide a 10-day IL stint is warranted even if the knee bruise isn’t overly serious, just to give Abreu some time to recharge for the second half of the season.

If Abreu does have to miss time, it would represent yet another significant loss to Chicago’s starting lineup.  The team’s entire projected starting outfield (Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Adam Eaton) are on the injured list, as well as backups Adam Engel and Billy Hamilton.  As well, second baseman Nick Madrigal’s season is already over after undergoing hamstring surgery.  After the loss in the first half of today’s doubleheader, the White Sox have dropped seven of their last eight games, reducing their lead in the AL Central to two games over the Indians.

COVID Notes: Abreu, Montas, Happ, Cordero

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The latest notes from MLB regarding COVID-19:

  • Reigning AL MVP José Abreu returned to team workouts yesterday (per Scott Merkin of MLB.com). The White Sox first baseman had been sidelined after testing positive for the coronavirus, which Abreu believes he contracted back in January. Abreu says he’ll need a few extra days to get his timing back after quarantining, so he probably won’t see any game action until the middle of next week.
  • Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas discussed his COVID diagnosis with reporters (including Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). Montas said he previously experienced headaches and body aches and continues to feel some tightness in his chest. Fortunately, he has progressed to running and throwing after being set back by those symptoms.
  • Twins left-hander J.A. Happ is feeling well after testing positive for the coronavirus during intake last weekend, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters yesterday (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Happ still needs to clear testing protocols before returning to the field, and he’s expected to begin the screening process tomorrow, per Helfand.
  • New Red Sox outfielder Franchy Cordero tested positive for the virus and remains in the Dominican Republic, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Cordero was placed on the COVID-19 injured list last week, although it wasn’t known at the time whether that was due to a positive test or mere exposure. The hope is that Cordero will be able to join camp by the middle of next week, per Speier.

Covid Notes: Jose Abreu, Andrew Miller

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Major League Baseball announced last Friday that just 13 of the 4,336 tests performed during the first wave of Spring Training intake testing revealed positive Covid-19 results: nine players and four staff members spread across 11 big league teams. The broad-reaching hope, of course, is that the league and players will be able to navigate a full slate of games as successfully or more successfully than they did during last year’s 60-game sprint. A few updates of note on players who are or were delayed in their arrival to camp…

  • Reigning American League MVP Jose Abreu will be away from the White Sox for the time being due to a positive Covid-19 test, the team announced Wednesday. GM Rick Hahn told Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that Abreu is asymptomatic and “believes he contracted a mild case of the disease in January, which is reinforced by the presence of COVID antibodies in additional testing.” Abreu is expected to join the White Sox “in the not-too-distant future,” Hahn added. The 34-year-old Abreu posted a monstrous .317/.370/.611  slash with 19 home runs and 15 doubles while appearing in all 60 games during 2020’s shortened schedule.
  • Cardinals lefty Andrew Miller detailed his own recent bout with Covid-19 to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miller wasn’t one of the 13 positive tests for the league, as he tested positive 10 days prior to the date on which Cardinals pitchers and catchers were set to report. His arrival was then further delayed by a few days, in accordance with league protocols. The 35-year-old quarantined in his house’s guest room, away from his wife and children, thankfully dealing with only mild symptoms (namely a loss of smell). Miller did acknowledge that he’s dealing with some fatigue now, though he believes it is “basically from being shut down” while isolating in that bedroom. “I thought I did a pretty good job of protecting myself,” said Miller. “The vaccine is right around the corner but I didn’t quite make it there.”
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