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Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu’s Continued Struggles

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No hitter has had a worse start to the season than José Abreu. The veteran first baseman has only picked up four hits in 65 plate appearances. He’s hitting .068/.138/.085 with one extra-base knock, a double. Among hitters with 50+ trips to the dish, none has made less of an impact from a power perspective. Only Victor Scott II — a glove-first rookie whom the Cardinals optioned over the weekend — has as poor an on-base mark.

While St. Louis had the luxury of sending Scott to Triple-A, the Astros can’t do the same with Abreu. He’d need to agree to any kind of minor league assignment. They’re not going to find a trade partner. In all likelihood, the only way for Houston to take him off the MLB roster is to release him and eat the remaining money on his $58.5MM free agent deal. Considering Abreu is making $19.5MM both this season and next, it’s not especially surprising that Houston isn’t ready to move on entirely.

At the same time, they have to at least consider the possibility of making a change at first base. The Astros have already kicked Abreu to the bottom third of the batting order after he started the year in the #5 hole. He has gotten the start in 16 of Houston’s 23 games, with Jon Singleton getting the nod at first base for the other seven appearances.

If Singleton were hitting well, perhaps Abreu would be in danger of losing his starting job. Yet the lefty-hitting Singleton is off to a lackluster .229/.308/.286 line in his own right. It comes as no surprise that Houston’s first basemen have been the sport’s least productive through three weeks. No team has gotten less than their .110/.187/.146 showing over 91 plate appearances.

While Singleton isn’t exactly forcing his way into the lineup, the Astros could consider alternatives in the minors. Offseason trade acquisition Trey Cabbage is on the 40-man roster but has been on optional assignment to Triple-A Sugar Land all season. He’s hitting .262/.407/.492 over his first 18 games. Former seventh-round pick Joey Loperfido has raked at a .260/.359/.688 clip over 19 contests for the Space Cowboys. The Duke product is tied with Heston Kjerstad for the Triple-A lead with 10 home runs. Loperfido is not on the 40-man but will need to be added at some point this year if Houston wants to keep him out of next offseason’s Rule 5 draft.

Neither Cabbage nor Loperfido is certain or even necessarily likely to produce against big league pitching. Cabbage appeared in 22 games for the Angels last season and struck out in nearly half his plate appearances. He’s going down on strikes a third of the time this year in Triple-A. Loperfido has had a similarly high swing-and-miss rate, fanning at a 33.7% clip this year after running a 32.6% strikeout percentage in his first look at Triple-A pitching last summer. He’s soon to turn 25 and has yet to make his major league debut.

Even if the Astros aren’t sold on Loperfido or Cabbage making enough contact to produce at the MLB level, they’ll obviously need to see more from Abreu to continue running him out there. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged as much last week. The GM told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on Friday that while the Astros would continue to give Abreu playing time in hopes that he finds his stride, they’d “have to circle back and make some decisions” if the former MVP doesn’t start hitting. That preceded an 0-8 showing from Abreu in the first two games of their weekend series against the Nationals. Singleton got the nod in yesterday’s series finale and went 0-3.

A player starting the year slowly can easily be overemphasized. A terrible three-week stretch to begin the season is more visible than a similar run in the middle of the summer might be. Teams are understandably wary about overreacting to a small sample in April, as Brown noted. Abreu’s struggles are magnified, though, because he’s already coming off a disappointing first year.

In 594 plate appearances a year ago, he hit .237/.296/.383 with 18 home runs. Of the 25 first basemen who took at least 500 plate appearances, Abreu was last in OBP and 22nd in slugging. Including this year’s start brings his overall line as an Astro to .220/.281/.354. That’d be subpar production for virtually any regular on a team with postseason aspirations. It’s particularly poor for a 37-year-old first baseman whose main source of value is supposed to be his bat.

To his credit, Abreu found his form to some extent late last season. He carried a .237/.296/.350 mark into September before connecting on seven homers with a .237/.299/.536 line in the regular season’s final month. He built off that in October, mashing at a .295/.354/.591 clip with another four longballs in 11 playoff contests. Abreu has also traditionally been a slow starter, even if this month’s struggles are at another level. For his career, he owns a roughly league average .241/.309/.421 line in March and April; he has posted well above-average offensive numbers in every other month.

That perhaps offers some level of optimism that Abreu will be able to turn things around. Still, despite a strong Spring Training performance, he hasn’t smoothly carried his late-2023 rebound into this season. How much more leeway the front office and manager Joe Espada can afford to give him remains to be seen.

Houston’s offense has been solid overall despite the complete lack of production at first base, yet they’re operating with far less margin for error than they have in past seasons. Poor performances from the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen, combined with a lack of timely hits, have led to a dismal 7-16 start. Only the White Sox have been worse in the American League. Urgency is soon going to mount. If the Astros get to a point where they feel a change in playing time is necessary, first base might be the likeliest position to do so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL West Notes: Abreu, Scherzer, Rendon

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The Astros have struggled badly to open the year as they currently sit dead last in the AL West with a 7-15 record, four games back of Seattle and Texas for the division lead. Club GM Dana Brown recently spoke to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle regarding the club’s deep early season struggles, including commenting on the status of veteran first baseman Jose Abreu.

Abreu, 37, has hit an anemic .073/.148/.091 with a 27.9% strikeout rate and just one extra-base hit in his first 61 trips to the plate this season. While that’s a fairly small sample size, it comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where he posted a disappointing 86 wRC+ in 141 games. Given the veteran slugger’s lack of success in an Astros uniform, Brown left the door open to the club making some changes regarding his playing time should he continue to struggle. While Brown emphasized that the club will continue to focus on getting Abreu playing time to “see if he can get hot” in the coming days, he also acknowledged that they’ll have to “circle back and make some decisions” if the veteran doesn’t show signs of improvement.

It’s an understandable stance for the club to take, though Abreu is only in the second year of his three-year, $58.5MM pact with the club. The most obvious option for the club at first base should they look to move away from Abreu is Jon Singleton, though the 32-year-old has hardly lit the world on fire himself with a .250/.333/.313 slash line in 13 games this year. Trey Cabbage and Grae Kessinger are among the other plausible options available to the club at first base currently on the 40-man roster.

More from around the AL West…

  • Reporting earlier this week indicated that Rangers ace Max Scherzer is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from surgery to repair a herniated disc he underwent over the offseason, and that he was scheduled to throw 40 pitches to live hitters yesterday. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, that 40-pitch session went off without a hitch and Scherzer had no issues recovering today, meaning the 39-year-old veteran is now on schedule to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday. The news is a huge shot in the arm for the club’s rotation, which has scuffled somewhat early in the season with a 4.46 FIP entering play today that placed the club ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, and Cardinals among all major league clubs. Scherzer, who posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.40 FIP in eight starts with Texas last year, would give the club the flexibility to move an arm such as Michael Lorenzen or even Andrew Heaney to the bullpen upon his return.
  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon exited this evening’s game against the Reds with a right hamstring injury, as relayed by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Rendon sustained the injury while running out an infield single in the top of the first inning. Following the game, Rendon spoke to reporters (including Bollinger) about the injury, noting that his hamstring is feeling “not too great” in the aftermath of the game and that he was feeling some frustration about the constant injuries. Rendon, 34 in June, was once a star infielder for the Nationals and earned a seven-year deal with the Angels in free agency prior to the 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, his career has been completely derailed by injuries in recent years, with just 166 appearances and a 95 wRC+ since the start of the 2021 season. Should the injury result in another trip to the shelf for Rendon, it would be a major blow to the Angels. While the veteran infielder started the season in a 0-for-19 slump, since then he’s started to heat up with a .346/.403/.400 slash line in his last 13 games. In the event Rendon requires a trip to the injured list, the club could rely on Brandon Drury to cover third base in Rendon’s absence, with the club’s bench options, such as Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, and Jo Adell, handling DH.

AL Notes: Abreu, DiPuglia, McKinstry

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A bad back might’ve saved Jose Abreu’s season, as the first baseman’s debut season in Houston didn’t start to turn around until a two-week stint on the injured list in August.  Abreu was batting only .234/.291/.343 in 464 plate appearances prior to the IL trip, yet as Astros hitting coach Alex Cinton told ESPN’s Buster Olney, Abreu “was a different guy” after returning to action.  Abreu improved to .248/.315/.530 with eight home runs over 130 PA in the rest of the regular season, and he has a .962 OPS and four homers over 39 PA during Houston’s postseason run.

Beyond just letting his back heal, the IL trip also seemed to serve as a mental reset for Abreu after the grind of his first four-plus months.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM contract with Houston last winter, Abreu was perhaps too eager to contribute to his new team.  Olney writes that “Cintron began to view Abreu’s relentless diligence as a problem.  As Abreu relentlessly took batting practice, his coaches believed, he was sapping his energy day after day — and likely prolonging his slump.”  Fortunately for all parties, Abreu has found his form at the ideal time for an Astros team that is one victory away from a return trip the World Series.

More from around the American League….

  • Former Nationals assistant GM Johnny DiPuglia is interviewing with the Rays about a front office job, according to reporter Francys Romero (via X).  DiPuglia had been working as Washington’s international scouting director since 2009 and assistant GM since 2020 before he resigned from the organization in September, reportedly due to the Nationals’ desire to reduce his salary.  It isn’t surprising that the Rays (and presumably other teams) have interest in hiring DiPuglia, who has over 30 years of experience of scouting and front office experience, and a rich history of success in finding and developing Latin American talent.
  • Zach McKinstry is planning “to live in the weight room” this offseason to improve his core strength, the Tigers utilityman tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  This represents a departure from last winter, when McKinstry was rehabbing from a torn groin suffered in August 2022, though he played through the injury without going on the IL.  The interruption to his usual offseason routine may have been a reason behind McKinstry’s underwhelming .231/.302/.351 slash line over 518 PA last season, not to mention the increased workload as a whole.  McKinstry had played in only 121 MLB games and received 364 PA from 2020-22 as a member of the Dodgers and Cubs before taking on a regular role with Detroit in a variety of different positions.  Petzold notes that McKinstry is out of minor league options, so there’s less of a margin for error as the uilityman will try to retain his spot as a multi-positional option.  “I’ll try to get my rotational strength a little bit stronger.  Hopefully, it can last me a little bit longer throughout the whole season, not just one month, two months or three months,” McKinstry said.

Astros Place Jose Abreu, Phil Maton On Injured List

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The Astros announced that first baseman Jose Abreu has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 10), and that right-hander Phil Maton has been placed on the 15-day IL.  Abreu is dealing with lumbar spine inflammation while Maton has a right elbow contusion.  Infielder David Hensley and left-hander Parker Mushinski were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves.

Abreu’s back has been an issue for both the last few days, and for much of the season, as he revealed to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome (Twitter links) and other reporters today.  The IL placement seemed to be sparked when an MRI revealed the inflammation, and Abreu received two cortisone shots to help ease the discomfort.

The back problem continues what has been a rough debut season for the veteran first baseman in Houston.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM free agent contract with the Astros last winter, Abreu has stumbled to a .234/.291/.343 slash line and 10 homers over 464 plate appearances.  Abreu and the Rockies’ Jurickson Profar each have a 75 wRC+, tied for the lowest wRC+ of any player in baseball with at least 450 PA in the 2023 campaign.

It has been a surprising result for a player who was so consistently productive over his nine previous seasons with the White Sox, and yet Abreu made a point of not using his back problems as an excuse, telling Rome and company “this is not a justification for the hitter I’ve been for the past four months.”

The Astros selected Jon Singleton’s contract from Triple-A earlier this week, and the former top prospect will continue to get a good chunk of the first base playing time while Abreu is sidelined.  Hensley and Mauricio Dubon could also chip in, though Houston might also opt to use Yainer Diaz more often at the cold corner, when Diaz isn’t catching.  The rookie has hit very well in his first extended taste of MLB action, and the Astros have been using first base and the DH spot to keep Diaz in the lineup when Martin Maldonado is behind the plate.

Maton was hit in the elbow by a line drive in Friday’s game, which forced him to make an early exit from his relief outing.  Rome reports that initial x-rays didn’t show a fracture, but Maton will undergo more x-rays and an MRI in due course.

Injuries have plagued Houston’s rotation all season, but the bullpen has been relatively healthy, and a big reason why the Astros have been able to largely withstand their thinned-out starting staff.  Maton has enjoyed a very solid campaign, posting a 3.04 ERA and an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate.  Though Maton isn’t a hard thrower and his walk rate is below average, he has elite spin rates and his fastball and curveball, and his 23.1% hard-hit ball rate is the lowest in the majors.

The Astros can only hope that the further scans don’t reveal a more serious problem for Maton, as the club needs their bullpen to keep contributing during the playoff push.  Houston already added to their relief depth in acquiring Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline, a move that looks even shrewder now that Maton will miss at least the next 15 days.

Astros Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Rotation

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The Astros and right fielder Kyle Tucker discussed a long-term contract in the offseason and into spring training, but no deal was reached by the time the season got underway, and general manager Dana Brown noted at the time that negotiations were “paused” for the time being. Brown piqued the fan base’s interest in his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show that he’s optimistic the two sides will work out a deal and that Tucker will spend his career with the Astros. He later clarified, however, that talks have yet to resume since being put on hold (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

The 26-year-old Tucker has delivered in spades both on his lofty draft status (No. 5 overall in 2015) and his top-prospect billing. Already a two-time All-Star and a 2022 Gold Glove winner, he’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his exceptional young career. In 113 games and 481 plate appearances, Tucker has slashed .296/.377/.517 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 24 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). He’s just one steal shy of last year’s career-high mark, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive 30-homer season. This year’s 11.6% walk rate is easily a career-high mark, while his 12.9% strikeout rate is both a personal low and the ninth-lowest mark among all qualified big league hitters.

Tucker entered the 2023 season with 3.079 years of big league service and will finish at 4.079, leaving him arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. Given his age, draft/prospect pedigree and general excellence to date, there’s little reason to expect any sort of downturn in the near future. Were Tucker to naturally reach free agency by accruing six years of MLB service, he’d do so heading into his age-29 season — and likely in position to command a contract in excess of $200MM.

The Astros haven’t necessarily shied away from large payroll commitments, but they’ve typically preferred to mitigate the length of any high-priced deals. Jose Altuve’s extension promised him five years and $151MM on top of the remaining two years and $12.5MM on his prior contract. Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract is the longest handed out under owner Jim Crane. That deal covered all three of Alvarez’s arbitration seasons and three would-be free agent years. Tucker is already playing his first arb year on a $5MM salary and will be due a substantial raise this offseason.

Any extension for Tucker would presumably need to top Alvarez’s deal by a good margin — not only in terms of overall guarantee but in terms of length. The six-year term Alvarez landed would cover Tucker’s age-27 through age-32 seasons and set him up for free agency in advance of his age-33 season. It stands to reason that a player of his caliber would more likely be seeking a deal of eight-plus years in length, particularly now that he’s only two seasons removed from hitting the open market in prime position for a mega-deal.

For now, Brown stressed that the focus is squarely on attempting to overtake the Rangers for the lead in the American League West and to engineer another deep postseason run. Tucker will play a focal part of those efforts, of course, but the ’Stros were dealt some potentially difficult news regarding another key contributor following last night’s game. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters this morning that first baseman Jose Abreu reported discomfort in his lower back following yesterday’s game (Twitter link via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated further this weekend.

Abreu’s first season in Houston has been a forgettable one overall, but the former Rookie of the Year and MVP looked to be rediscovering his form earlier in the summer. After floundering to a .211/.276/.260 slash through his first two months, Abreu came roaring back with a .288/.330/.484 output over his next 200 plate appearances. While not quite his peak form, that was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and Abreu looked well on his way to quieting concerns brought about by his sluggish start to the season.

Unfortunately, his production has cratered once again. Abreu has just three hits in his past 39 trips to the plate and has fanned at an uncharacteristic 28.2% clip in that time. It’s unclear how long his back has been ailing, but the recent downturn after an impressive performance in June and July could well be related to the apparent injury with which he’s dealing. The season-long numbers are still ugly (.234/.291/.343), but losing the June/July version of Abreu is a notable hit to any lineup.

Of course, for as many potent bats as the Houston lineup has featured in recent years, elite starting pitching has been a hallmark of Astros clubs throughout their recent peak. The trade deadline return of Justin Verlander should only help to continue that legacy, but the reacquisition of Verlander won’t necessarily cost someone his spot on the starting staff.

Trezza writes that the Astros are likely to move to a six-man rotation, at least for the time being, keeping rookie right-hander J.P. France in the mix. Calling baseball an “earn-it business,” Baker emphasized that France has indeed earned his spot and will stay on turn moving forward.

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. The 28-year-old France has turned in 95 innings of 2.75 ERA ball since making his big league debut earlier this season, emerging as a godsend in the wake of season-ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. France has had some modest fortune on balls in play (.277 BABIP) and probably can’t continue stranding 81% of his baserunners — league average is 72% — but he’s looked the part of a solid big league starter even when accounting for some potential regression.

Keeping France in the rotation will have other benefits beyond his own performance. Hunter Brown is nearing last year’s total workload with seven weeks of the season yet to play out. Jose Urquidy just returned from a months-long absence due to a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier has been pitching better of late, but he hit a wall midsummer and had his spot in the rotation skipped heading into the All-Star break. Keeping France on the starting staff alongside Verlander, Brown, Javier, Urquidy and Framber Valdez will help the Astros to manage Brown’s workload and exercise caution, as necessary, with Urquidy and Javier.

Jose Abreu’s Slow Start In Houston

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The Astros didn’t make many outside additions over the winter. They were content to generally run things back with last year’s World Series roster minus Justin Verlander and deadline rentals Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini. The only significant upgrade the Astros successfully pursued was at first base. They allowed Yuli Gurriel to depart and signed longtime White Sox slugger José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM deal.

Going to three years at a premium average annual value was not without risk. Abreu is 36 years old and offers limited defensive value. It was a bet on the bat, though it’s easy to see why Houston targeted the former AL MVP as a lineup upgrade. Abreu had hit .289/.366/.489 over the three seasons leading up to free agency. That included a .304/.378/.446 platform showing. He still looked like an impact hitter last November.

One can’t draw definitive conclusions on a move one month into a three-year contract. Yet it’s hard to envision Abreu getting off to a much worse start to his Houston tenure. Entering play Tuesday, the three-time All-Star owns a .235/.266/.269 batting line over 124 trips to the plate. He’s managed only four doubles and zero home runs. Out of 181 qualified hitters, he’s 170th in on-base percentage and 177th in slugging. This April was only the second month in Abreu’s career (July ’16 being the other) in which he played 20+ games and didn’t connect on a single homer.

The drop isn’t power isn’t a completely new development. Last year’s 15 homers and .446 slugging mark each represented the lowest figures of Abreu’s career. He was still a very productive hitter but the offensive profile was more driven by singles and doubles than by home runs.

Last year’s relative power drop was primarily a result of a dip in the frequency with which Abreu got the ball in the air. His hard contact rate was strong as ever, but he’d negated some of its impact by hitting a few more grounders than he had previously. That’s not the case this season. Abreu just isn’t hitting the ball with any kind of authority right now. His 35.9% hard contact rate is down dramatically from last year’s 51.7% figure. He has lost five MPH on his average exit velocity (down from an excellent 92.2 MPH to a pedestrian 87.2 MPH).

Abreu is more frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone. While he’s never been an especially patient hitter, this year’s 41.2% swing rate on pitches outside the zone and 3.2% walk percentage would be the worst marks of his career. He’s doing a decent job putting balls in play but without any kind of impact.

It’s coincidentally a similar approach to the player whom Abreu replaced in Houston. Gurriel has been an elite hitter at times in his career, including when he secured the 2021 AL batting title. His final season in Houston wasn’t particularly effective, though, as he posted just a .242/.288/.360 line with eight homers and a 5.1% walk rate in 546 plate appearances. Gurriel had a good postseason but the Astros nevertheless let him depart to the Marlins on a minor league contract over the winter in recognition of the middling power and dearth of walks. (Gurriel made Miami’s Opening Day roster and is off to a .306/.358/.449 start through 14 games in a part-time role.)

It’s far too early to write Abreu off. He’s been such an accomplished hitter throughout his career that it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds his stride over the coming weeks. The Astros have little choice but to count on him to figure things out for now. It’s too soon for any team to make meaningful trades. Houston wouldn’t look to upgrade over their top offseason signee after one bad month anyhow. It could raise an unexpected question mark for the club if Abreu is still floundering in six weeks, particularly since the lineup around him hasn’t picked up a ton of the slack.

The defending champions are tied for 12th in runs, 15th in OBP, and 22nd in slugging as a team. That’s in large part because of Abreu, although they’ve also predictably gotten no offense from their catchers and have been without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley all season. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up in Altuve’s absence but certainly doesn’t offer the kind of power potential of Houston’s star second baseman.

Altuve seems likely to miss another month as recovers from his late-spring thumb fracture. Houston’s rotation has also taken some injury hits over the past couple days. They’re certainly not in dire straits — they enter play with a 16-13 record and are only a game and a half behind their in-state rivals in the AL West — but they’ll need more out of Abreu to help weather some of their poor health luck thus far.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox

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The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.

There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.

The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.

Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.

The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.

The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.

Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.

The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.

While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.

Chaim Bloom On Bogaerts, Pitching, Offseason Additions

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9:34PM: Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe has some updates on the pitching search, citing right-hander Tommy Kahnle as a target for the Red Sox bullpen.  The Sox haven’t made much progress in recent talks with Eovaldi, and while the Red Sox are known to have interest in Kodai Senga, the Japanese star hasn’t yet visited Boston while making the rounds to visit other teams.

On the hitting front, Abreu was offered a three-year deal “in the low- to mid-$40MM range,” well below the three years and $59.5MM Abreu received from Houston.

6:47PM: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke with the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter thread) and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, outlining his team’s extensive plans for the rest of the offseason.  Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez represent Boston’s most notable additions thus far, and Bloom said the Sox could yet add at least two more relievers to augment the bullpen.

All in all, Bloom said the team wanted to add “seven, eight, nine” players to “build the team we want to have.”  This list includes three or four position players, as well as at least one starting pitcher who can bring “upside, leadership, and consistency” to the rotation, as well as innings.

On paper, it looks like the Red Sox are aiming for a repeat of their first three offseasons under Bloom’s leadership, which saw the club made a wide array of moves big and small to shuffle up the roster.  This semi-overhaul added both everyday players and more complementary parts to the roster, with a general focus in acquiring controllable players and veterans on shorter-term contracts — with the major exception of Trevor Story, and his six-year, $140MM pact from last March.

Bloom’s tactics have drawn a mixed reaction at best from Red Sox Nation, as the team’s last three seasons have consisted of one trip to the ALCS (in 2021) and two last-place finishes (2020 and 2022) in the AL East.  Several of Bloom’s less-heralded moves have panned out, but several have also not borne fruit, and Boston’s relative lack of spending on big-ticket players has also drawn criticism given the team’s traditional large-market ways.  The Red Sox have remained at least a top-10 payroll team over Bloom’s three seasons and even exceeded the luxury tax line last year, though many of the team’s biggest expenditures were signed before Bloom joined the organization.

The Red Sox have quite a bit of money coming off the books this winter, of course, with Xander Bogaerts being the club’s most prominent free agent.  Reports from the weekend indicated that the Sox weren’t one of the primary members of Bogaerts’ market, and that the Red Sox had yet to make “a competitive offer” to the shortstop.

Bloom pushed back against that speculation today, saying “have certainly made offers to him, we’ve been engaged, and we’ll stay engaged.”  Bogaerts is still a chief priority for the Red Sox, though Bloom expected the shortstop to check out all of his options in his first trip to free agency.

Re-signing Bogaerts and solidifying the shortstop position for years to come would naturally have a big impacton Boston’s plans to remake its position-player mix.  Bloom noted that Story or Enrique Hernandez could potentially take over at shortstop if Bogaerts departed, but if he stayed, Story would likely remain at second base and Hernandez could bounce around the diamond, perhaps primarily staying in center field.

Story and Hernandez figure to play everyday roles somewhere, and Rafael Devers has third base covered and Alex Verdugo will get regular work at one or both of the corner outfield spots.  However, there’s quite of bit of flux elsewhere around the diamond and quite a bit more opportunity to add new faces, depending on how much playing time the Red Sox want to give to such younger players as Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, or Jeter Downs.  For instance, the Sox technically have plenty of first base/DH candidates in Casas, Bobby Dalbec, and Eric Hosmer, but the team still made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu decided to join the Astros.

Pursuing Abreu would seem to indicate a greater willingness to spend on the front office’s part.  A very big contract will obviously be necessary to re-sign Bogaerts, and bringing Nathan Eovaldi back will likely also require a healthy multi-year commitment.  Bloom said that incumbent free agents Eovaldi and Michael Wacha were both still possibilities as the team explores the pitching market.

Astros Notes: Abreu, Bagwell, Coaches

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For over a month now, it’s seemed like the White Sox would let Jose Abreu join a new organization and install Andrew Vaughn at first base. That became official this week, when Abreu signed with the Astros. However, the Sox didn’t just completely turn their back on him. “The White Sox made me an offer, it was a really good offer, but we’ll leave it at there,” Abreu said in his introductory press conference, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle.

Without any details, it’s hard to say exactly how hard the White Sox tried to retain Abreu, but it wasn’t enough either way. Abreu’s interest seems to have been quite wide, as it’s already been reported the Guardians made a three-year offer and he was also a top target of the Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres also made a three-year offer while Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins were at the table as well. Regardless, what’s done is done and Abreu is an Astro now.

One person who was involved in the deal coming together was former Astro Jeff Bagwell, as Crane said he and assistant general manager Bill Firkus flew to flew to Miami to negotiate the deal with Abreu, per Rome. It was recently reported amid the departure of general manager James Click that Bagwell has been working with the front office in some capacity, sitting in on meetings and things of that nature. Bagwell is apparently one of Crane’s most trusted advisors and it seems his level of engagement has increased in Click’s absence. However, it doesn’t appear as though it will go much farther, as he insisted to members of the media that he does not want the open general manager position and wouldn’t interview for it if asked, per Rome.

In other Astros news, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Gary Pettis will return as the third base coach, with pitching coach Bill Murphy returning for 2023 as well. Pettis has been in that role since 2015 while Murphy just got his job title a year ago when Brent Strom parted ways with the club.

Guardians Made Three-Year Offer To Jose Abreu

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Yesterday, the Astros and first baseman Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM contract, but it seems a surprising club was close to Houston in the bidding for Abreu’s services. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians made a three-year offer, but that the $60MM range was “beyond their reach.”

The Guardians are usually one of the lowest-spending clubs in the league, so the fact that they didn’t sign a costly free agent isn’t exactly shocking. However, it could perhaps be an indication that they have a greater willingness to spend this offseason than usual. The largest free agent contract in the history of the franchise is the $60MM over three years given to Edwin Encarnacion prior to the 2017 season, coincidentally very similar to the deal Abreu just signed. The Guardians did give José Ramírez $129MM over seven years, though that was an extension and not a free agent deal.

Though many fans will remain skeptical of “at least we tried” reports of teams just missing on free agents, there are reasons to think the Guards might actually have some money to work with this winter. The club ran out a roster full of rookies and other young players in 2022, and it worked tremendously. They went 92-70 and finished atop the American League Central despite a very modest payroll. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 spending around $72MM, with no individual player set to earn more than the $14MM Ramírez will get. $9MM of that number is the projected arbitration salary of shortstop Amed Rosario, a name frequently mentioned in trade rumors. That $72MM figure is already a slight upgrade over last year’s Opening Day figure of $68MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they got as high as $135MM in 2018.

Now that the club is a few years removed from the lost revenues of the pandemic and just got a boost from a surprise postseason run, it’s possible that they are willing to push spending back up near their pre-pandemic levels. It would also make sense from an on-field perspective to build around their bevy of young and talented players while they are still paid at arbitration or pre-arb levels.

If there is some money to be spent, the first base/designated hitter part of the roster is a sensible place to put it. The club has Josh Naylor penciled in as their first baseman but Franmil Reyes flamed out as the designated hitter in 2022 and eventually got put on waivers, going to the Cubs. There would have been an opening for Abreu to step in and split the first base and designated hitter duties with Naylor. It also would make sense to add some extra thump to a lineup that succeeded in 2022 largely by making contact and avoiding strikeouts. The club hit 127 home runs this year, which was 29th in the majors, ahead of only the Tigers. Abreu’s power actually took a step back in 2022, but he still hit 15 home runs and has frequently been a 30-homer bat in the past.

If the Guardians are still willing to pursue this market, there are other options available to them. There are some part-time or role players available such as Trey Mancini or Yuli Gurriel, but the top option is Josh Bell. On MLBTR’s Top 50, he was projected for a $64MM contract over four years. That guarantee is beyond what Abreu got, but at a lower average annual value of $16MM. Since Bell is only 30 years old compared to Abreu’s 36, he will likely require a lengthier commitment, but that lower salary might better suit the Cleveland checkbook. Like Abreu, he would add some thump to the lineup, having hit 17 home runs last year and getting as high as 37 in previous seasons. He also isn’t likely to throw off the club’s low-strikeout style either, as he’s never posted a rate above 19.2% outside of the shortened 2020 season. For context, this year’s league average rate was 22.4% and the Guardians struck out at a collective 18.2% clip.

The Guardians will surely have competition in a pursuit of Bell or any other first basemen they decide to go after. The Padres, Cubs and Marlins were all reported to have been interested in Abreu and they will likely start thinking about the next options on their lists. One other team on that list is the Red Sox, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Abreu was their top free agent target and they met with him as soon as free agency began.

The Red Sox already have something of a cluttered mix of players for their first base and designated hitter spots. Youngsters Triston Casas and Bobby Dalbec are on the 40-man roster along with veteran Eric Hosmer, picked up in a deadline deal with the Padres last year. However, there’s no real reason for them to be especially committed to Hosmer, as the Padres agreed to pay down all of his remaining contract except for the league minimum. Since joining the Padres prior to 2018, he’s been essentially a replacement level player, producing a wRC+ of 100 and 0.3 fWAR. As for Dalbec, he showed some potential in 2020 and 2021 but struggled greatly in 2022, hitting just .215/.283/.369 for a wRC+ of 80 while striking out in 33.4% of his plate appearances.

We can’t know for sure what subsequent moves the Red Sox would have made if they had signed Abreu, but it seems possible they could have looked to trade Hosmer or simply released him if he used his no-trade clause to block a deal. Dalbec could have also found himself on the trading block but he also has options and could have been retained as minor league depth in case Casas, who has just 27 MLB games under his belt, struggled in 2023. He hit five homers in that short sample and walked a bunch but didn’t hit for much average, leading to a lopsided batting line of .197/.358/.408.

The first base market has been quite robust in the early days of the offseason, as Anthony Rizzo already re-signed with the Yankees, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, followed by Abreu signing with the Astros. With several teams seemingly still interested in upgrading their rosters at first, the remaining free agents might see their phones lighting up very soon.

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