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Jorge Soler

MLBTR Poll: What To Do With Jorge Soler?

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The buzz has been positive around Jorge Soler’s mini-breakout campaign this year, as he’s turned in a .248/.312/.532 line with an eye-grabbing 21 home runs. It’s a good news-bad news situation for the Royals, as the jump in production makes Soler likely to decline a $4MM option and become eligible for arbitration, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan.

On the whole, he’s much the same player he’s always been, but the mere fact that he’s been healthy (knock on wood) is a positive change. But has his game improved otherwise? The realization of his long-tantalizing raw power (.284 ISO) makes up the majority of Soler’s improvement. Meanwhile, his walk rate has fallen below-average to 7.5 BB% and his strikeout rate is up a tick as well, though the quality of his contact has been strong across the board.

He will be an interesting arbitration case to follow, as slugger’s of Soler’s ilk generally fare better in arbitration than they might on today’s open market. C.J. Cron jumps to mind as a comp, whom the Rays DFA’ed after a 30-homer, 2.0 rWAR season rather than give a raise on his $2.3MM 2018 salary. Cron ended up in Minnesota for $4.8MM, where he’s already accumulated 2.0 rWAR via his .279/.344/.534 batting line. Such numbers might be a best-case scenario for Soler in 2020, as even Cron’s 2018 lands slightly higher than Soler’s 2019 by wRC+ (122 to 118).

Depending on where the Royals fall in their valuation of Soler, a non-tender would not be wholly unreasonable were he to opt into arbitration as Flanagan suggests. At 27-years-old, Soler should be entering his prime, and depending on how this season ends, he could be coming off the most prodigious power season in Royals history. Power pays in arbitration.

The Royals typically have their own way of doing things, however, and Soler’s power is a unique contribution on a roster that ranks 23rd in the majors in isolated power and slugging percentage. Their books remain relatively clean moving forward, especially after 2020 when only Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, and Whit Merrifield are under contract. Dayton Moore could attempt to buy out Soler’s two remaining arbitration years in one fell swoop. Investing in an injury-prone, one-dimensional designated hitter – even a good one – is not necessarily the safest stock option for the Royals, however.

It’s only June 22, so much of this story has yet to play out – but it’s never too early to gauge public opinion! Besides, what better way to start out your Saturday morning than with a healthy pondering of the best application of the Royals future payroll?

If Soler’s trajectory holds and he opts into arbitration, how should the Royals respond? (Poll link for app users.)

This Date In Transactions History: Cubs Land Jorge Soler

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It has been seven years since the Cubs landed a player they thought would become a long-term linchpin. On June 11, 2012, they won the bidding for free-agent Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. At least a few teams bid upward of $20MM for Soler, who had just turned 20 a few months prior, but Chicago emerged victorious with a nine-year, $30MM offer. At the time, Soler was seen as a top 50 prospect in the sport.

The power-hitting Soler tore through the Cubs’ minor league system beginning the summer he signed and wound up debuting in Chicago two years later. When the Cubs promoted him late in the 2014 season, Soler was even more of a celebrated prospect. He justified the hype initially, slashing a strong .292/.330/.573 (148 wRC+) with five home runs in 97 plate appearances. Thanks to that run, Soler cemented himself as the Cubs’ everyday right fielder heading into 2015; however, his numbers took a dive that season, during which he hit .262/.324/.399 (95 wRC+) with 10 homers in 404 trips to the plate.

Despite his underwhelming output in 2015, Soler was once again in the Cubs’ season-opening lineup in ’16. The franchise ultimately won its first World Series in 108 years that season, but Soler didn’t play a huge role. While Soler turned in decent production in the regular campaign and the playoffs, injuries helped limit him to 264 PA during the season. After celebrating their championship that fall, the Cubs elected to part with Soler, deciding there was no longer a place for him in an outfield that also had Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Matt Szczur in the fold.

On Dec. 7, 2016, just over a month after it won the World Series, Chicago traded Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. Although Davis only had another year of control left, the Cubs needed a replacement for departed closer Aroldis Chapman. That helped deem Soler expendable in the Cubs’ eyes, and though Davis lasted just one season in their uniform, they haven’t really missed Soler.

Since he joined the Royals in 2017, Soler has batted .234/.310/.450 (101 wRC+) and swatted 28 HRs in 633 attempts. Soler was particularly subpar during his first year in KC, in which he endured a lengthy minor league demotion, but bounced back in 2018 before suffering a season-ending left toe fracture in mid-June. In his return from that injury, Soler’s once again giving the Royals respectable offensive production this season, though his paltry .293 on-base percentage somewhat overshadows his 17 homers. The same is true of Soler’s defense (minus-7 DRS, minus-2.0 UZR), which has graded negatively for most of his time in the majors.

Considering how much excitement there was when Soler signed with the Cubs, the 27-year-old has posted a somewhat disappointing big league career. Soler may move on to a third team soon, given rumors that the non-contending Royals are open to trading just about anyone on their roster. Wherever he plays next season, it’ll be the final year of the contract Soler agreed to with the Cubs seven years ago.

AL Central Notes: Mize, Carrasco, Soler

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The Tigers announced Thursday that top pitching prospect Casey Mize has been promoted to Double-A Erie. Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, tore through an early assignment to Class-A Advanced, posting a comical 0.35 ERA with a 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 26 innings of work prior to the promotion. The former Auburn ace, clearly miles ahead of the competition he faced at that first stop, looks to be on a relatively fast track to the big leagues. The 21-year-old (22 on May 1) totaled 128 1/3 innings between college ball and the minor leagues last season, so he may not even be on all that aggressive of an innings cap (although surely the Tigers will exercise some degree of caution as pertains to his workload). Widely regarded as one of the game’s best overall prospects, Mize could put himself in the conversation for a big league promotion this summer or in early 2020, at the latest, assuming things go smoothly in Double-A and Triple-A.

More from the division…

  • An MRI revealed no damage in the ailing knee of Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. Carrasco tweaked the knee in his most recent start against the Marlins while covering first base on a grounder, and while he finished that frame (the fourth), he didn’t return for the fifth. The righty told skipper Terry Francona that the knee had begun to tighten up, and the Cleveland manager understandably opted to go the cautious route. Carrasco is in line to make his next scheduled start on Sunday and seemingly won’t have any limitations placed on him.
  • The Royals are cognizant of the fact that Jorge Soler’s work in right field is a work in progress, at best, but the organization plans to continue giving him opportunities to improve, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. It seems the team believes there’s better glovework to be unlocked with more reps, with Soler possessing the physical tools needed to man the position. The coaching staff is stressing the need for him to take better routes to the ball — particularly when it’s hit over his head. There’s little doubt that Soler’s upside would be maximized by playing on the grass regularly, rather than serving solely as a DH, though he has already logged more than two thousand MLB innings in the outfield without mastering the gig. He’s also pacing the American League with 39 strikeouts and carrying a .288 on-base percentage, which arguably represent larger concerns. Soler is under contract through 2020 under the international free agent contract he originally signed out of Cuba. The out-of-options 27-year-old will be eligible for arbitration for one season thereafter.

AL Central Notes: Adrianza, Twins, Salazar, Royals, Beckham

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With eight games until the end of Spring Training, infielder Ehire Adrianza isn’t assured of a spot on the Twins’ Opening Day roster, writes LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Adrianza is out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t break camp with the club he’d be exposed to outright waivers. Minnesota’s addition of Marwin Gonzalez and the emergence of Willians Astudillo have left Adrianza without a clear role. Gonzalez will open the season as the primary third baseman while Miguel Sano rehabs a foot injury, but the Twins could go with a bench consisting of catcher Mitch Garver, outfielder Jake Cave, first baseman Tyler Austin (also out of minor league options) and Astudillo. Cave has options remaining, and Gonzalez can play the outfield, but they’d be rather thin on outfielders if Cave opened the year in Triple-A. Adrianza has enjoyed a nice spring, but he’s in a tough spot at the moment. He’s set to earn $1.3MM after avoiding arbitration, but they’d only owe him about $315K of that sum if they cut him loose between now and Opening Day. If he hits waivers, another club would have to take on that $1.3MM salary in order to claim him.

More from the division…

  • Danny Salazar’s progress in his recovery from 2018 shoulder surgery has “skyrocketed” in the past 10 to 14 days, Indians manager Terry Francona said Monday (link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Salazar had slogged through a pair of “down weeks” but has quickly bounced back to the point where he’s playing long toss from a distance of 180 feet. There’s still no clear timetable as to when Salazar will reemerge as a bullpen option in Cleveland — Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber have rotation spots locked down — but if healthy, he’d add a big arm to a relief corps that is lacking in established arms behind closer Brad Hand.
  • The Royals are still trying to determine which of the several right field options they have in camp will make the roster, writes Rustin Dodd of The Athletic (subscription required). Manager Ned Yost has said that Jorge Soler will be in the lineup nearly everyday, splitting time between DH and right field, but the Royals still have Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio as candidates for significant innings in right. None of that trio has had a good spring, however, and Goodwin is out of minor league options. Terrance Gore, on the active roster after signing a big league deal this winter, is viewed as more of a bench option than a candidate to log many starts in the outfield. There will likely be occasional at-bats at the other outfield slots, but Alex Gordon and Billy Hamilton will get the bulk of the playing time in left field and center field, respectively. Dodd ultimately runs through the entire lineup and pitching staff in making his projections as to which 25 players will break camp and comprise the Opening Day roster.
  • Gordon Beckham spoke with Chris McCosky of the Detroit News about his transformation from lauded top prospect to a journeyman bouncing from minor league deal to minor league deal. In camp with the Tigers on a minor league pact, Beckham was candid in discussing his ups and downs and many of the difficult moments he’s faced in his career. Struggling for the first time in his career at the big league level with the White Sox, Beckham said the pressure to meet expectations “mentally crushed” him. He had even weighed whether he’d continue his playing career if he failed to land a big league job this spring, reflecting that it’s “crazy to think I have to make this decision.” However, as McCosky outlines, he actually may not have to make that decision. Manager Ron Gardenhire has been impressed by Beckham this spring, spoken fondly of the veteran infielder, and expressed a desire for additional veteran middle-infield depth. All of that seemingly bodes well for Beckham, who entered play Monday hitting .314/.429/.429 in 42 plate appearances this spring.

Royals Outright Brandon Maurer, Paulo Orlando, Ramon Torres

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The Royals announced Friday that right-hander Brandon Maurer, outfielder Paulo Orlando and infielder Ramon Torres all cleared outright waivers. Maurer has already rejected his outright assignment in favor of free agency, while both Orlando and Torres will become minor league free agents tomorrow. In a series of corresponding moves, Kansas City activated Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn from the 60-day disabled list. The Royals’ 40-man roster sits at 37 players after these moves.

None of the 40-man subtractions come as much of a surprise. Maurer has spent parts of the past two season in the Kansas City bullpen but struggled to catastrophic levels, yielding 45 earned runs, 36 walks and 11 home runs in just 51 1/3 innings pitched. Though he’s shown the ability to miss bats, he’s far too hittable and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn as much as $3.1MM in arbitration this winter.

Orlando, 33, hit just .167/.194/.200 in 93 plate appearances with Kansas City this year and has never replicated the BABIP-fueled 2016 season he enjoyed when he hit .302/.329/.405. Orlando has drawn walks at a 2.4 percent clip in his career, one of the lowest marks in all of baseball, and is a career .263/.289/.384 hitter. He brings his share of speed to the table, though that hasn’t been enough to outweigh his otherwise lackluster offensive output.

Torres, 25, has seen action in each of the past two seasons but mustered a timid .225/.269/.265 slash in that time. His .230/.279/.343 showing in Triple-A this season gave little reason for optimism, though at the very least he does offer some versatility with the glove, having experience at second base, shortstop and third base.

Jorge Soler May Be Done For Season

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Royals outfielder Jorge Soler suffered a setback in his rehab from a foot injury, and the team will shut him down for an undisclosed period of time, manager Ned Yost told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and other reporters on Sunday. With only a few weeks left on the schedule, it’s possible Soler’s season is over, Flanagan notes.

Soler last played in the majors on June 15, when he incurred a left foot fracture, though the Royals’ hope was that he’d return in August. Instead, the 26-year-old’s big league campaign may conclude with 257 plate appearances and a terrific .265/.354/.466 batting line. Soler also chipped in nine home runs and a .202 ISO while cutting his strikeout rate to 26.8 percent (compared to 32.7 in 2017). Statcast data suggests Soler’s success this season hasn’t been a fluke, as there’s little difference between his expected weighted on-base average (.359) and his real wOBA (.355).

In terms of bottom-line results, this has been a rough year for the rebuilding Royals, who own the majors’ second-worst record (44-91). Soler’s production counts as a rare bright spot, especially after he endured a difficult first year with the organization in 2017. Soler – whom the Royals acquired from the Cubs for closer Wade Davis in December 2016 – spent the majority of last year in the minors, playing just 35 games in Kansas City. But Soler worked diligently over the winter to improve, as Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star detailed in February, and that effort did yield positive results prior to his injury.

With his season potentially over, Soler will have to make a key financial decision during the winter.  While the Cuba native is still on the nine-year, $30MM deal he signed in 2012 with the Cubs, he’ll have a chance to opt into arbitration in the offseason. Soler’s currently slated to make $4MM in 2019, and thanks to his injury, he may be better served taking that guaranteed sum than testing arbitration.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/12/18

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Athletics announced that they’ve outrighted reliever Chris Hatcher to Triple-A Nashville after he cleared waivers. The club previously designated Hatcher for assignment on Friday to make room for just-acquired reliever Fernando Rodney. The 33-year-old Hatcher’s stay in the minors won’t be a long one, it seems, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests he’ll return to Oakland in either September or sometime later this month. Since the Athletics acquired Hatcher from the Dodgers almost exactly one year ago (on Aug. 15, 2017), the right-hander has recorded 57 innings of 3.95 ERA/4.71 FIP ball with 7.58 K/9, 4.11 BB/9 and a 42.1 percent groundball rate.

Earlier updates:

  • Cubs reliever Anthony Bass has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was among those to tweet. The move came after the Cubs activated Bass from the 10-day disabled list, where he had been since July 21 on account of a back muscle issue. Because he has been outrighted in the past, Bass has a right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but there’s no indication that he’ll head back to the open market. The 30-year-old has been a good find this year for the Cubs, who signed him to a minor league deal last December, having pitched to a 2.93 ERA with 8.22 K/9, 1.76 BB/9 and a 53.3 percent groundball rate in 15 1/3 innings.
  • The Royals have reinstated reliever Blaine Boyer from the 60-day disabled list and transferred outfielder Jorge Soler to the 60-day DL, per a team announcement. But Soler – who hasn’t played since June 15 because of a left toe fracture – could still return as early as Aug. 16. Meanwhile, Boyer has struggled to a horrendous 11.76 ERA with 3.92 K/9 and 5.23 BB/9 in 20 2/3 innings this year with the Royals, who added him on a minor league pact last offseason.

Royals Place Jorge Soler On 10-Day DL, Promote Adalberto Mondesi, Select Wily Peralta’s Contract

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The Royals announced a flurry of roster moves (Twitter links) this morning, including outfielder Jorge Soler’s official placement on the 10-day DL with a left toe fracture.  Left-hander Eric Skoglund was transferred to the 60-day DL, while infielder Ramon Torres and right-hander Scott Barlow were optioned to Triple-A.  Joining the 25-man roster are infielder Adalberto Mondesi, outfielder Rosell Herrera, and righty Wily Peralta, as the Royals selected Peralta’s contract from Triple-A Omaha.

[Updated Royals depth chart at Roster Resource]

Soler is expected to miss at least six weeks of action with the injury, which was seemingly originally caused by a foul ball off his foot and then exacerbated when Soler was running on Friday night.  Soler’s production has cooled off following a huge opening six weeks, though he still had a .265/.354/.466 slash line and nine homers through 257 total plate appearances this season.  It seemed as though Soler was finally enjoying the breakout campaign long expected of him since his (not long ago) days as one of the game’s best prospects coming up in the Cubs farm system, though this DL stint is an unfortunate interruption to Soler’s season.

Speaking of top prospects, the most noteworthy of Kansas City’s corresponding moves is the promotion of Mondesi, who is back in the majors for the first time in 2018.  Mondesi was a consensus top-40 prospect prior to the 2016 season, with Baseball Prospectus rating him as high as 16th on their list of baseball’s top 100 minor leaguers, though he has shown next to nothing at the plate in two brief stints in the Show.  Mondesi has just a .181/.226/.271 slash line over 209 career PA in the majors, though he has shown more composure as a hitter at the Triple-A level.  With the usual caveat that the Pacific Coast League is very hitter-friendly, Mondesi has hit .292/.328/.527 with 19 homers over 551 Triple-A plate appearances.

Mondesi has already displayed excellent speed and strong defensive ability, so his prospect ceiling would only be further elevated if he can add value as a hitter.  He has mostly played shortstop in the minors with some time at second base, and with the Royals in rebuild mode, Mondesi could get an extended look at either position now that he’s back on the 25-man roster.  Whit Merrifield is certainly staying in the everyday lineup but can play other positions than second base, so Mondesi could displace Ryan Goins for regular time at the keystone, or potentially displace starting shortstop Alcides Escobar.  Manager Ned Yost told reporters (including The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd) that Mondesi will play four games a week for the time being, to keep Mondesi fresh after some injuries earlier in the season.

Peralta signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract (with a $3MM club option for 2019) last winter, though he has yet to appear in a big league game for the Royals after being outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training.  Peralta has a 4.37 ERA over 35 innings at Triple-A, posting a strong 10.0 K/9 but a troubling 5.4 BB/9.  The hard-throwing veteran is looking to rebound after a very rough 2017 season that led his being outrighted off Milwaukee’s roster last summer.

Jorge Soler Diagnosed With Fracture In Foot

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SATURDAY: The Royals don’t expect Soler to require surgery, though he’s still likely to miss at least six weeks, per Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star (Twitter links).

FRIDAY: Royals outfielder Jorge Soler has been diagnosed with a fracture of the first metatarsal of his left foot, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic is among those to report on Twitter. He evidently suffered the injury while running after putting a ball in play tonight, having previously fouled a ball off the same area recently.

The outlook on Soler isn’t clear just yet, of course, but this injury seems all but certain to cost him a decent bit of action. As Dodd notes, Jayson Werth missed nearly three months last year with a similar injury, though that’s not to say such an extended absence will be required in this case.

It’s unfortunate timing for the 26-year-old Soler, who was in the midst of a strong season after a brutal 2017 campaign. Through 254 plate appearances entering play today, he carried a .268/.358/.473 slash with nine home runs.

Needless to say, the Royals won’t be competitive this year, so it’s easy enough to weather the loss in that regard. And Soler wasn’t likely to feature as a trade candidate given his not-so-distant struggles and lengthy control rights.

Still, it’s rough news for a team that’s looking to build a new core and a player who finally seemed to be reestablishing himself. And there are financial implications as well. As we explained recently, Soler may have had cause to consider opting into arbitration at season’s end, but it now seems much more likely that he will stick with the guarantee provided in the contract he signed with the Cubs after he departed his home nation of Cuba.

Jorge Soler Hires ACES

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Royals outfielder Jorge Soler has changed his representation, according to Robert Murray of Fan Rag. He will now be represented by the ACES agency.

Soler, 26, will finish the current season with over three years of MLB service, setting the stage for what could be a difficult decision. His original contract —signed after he left Cuba in 2012 — allows him to opt into arbitration upon reaching eligibility. (Though he finished 2017 with 2.143 years of MLB service, he wasn’t eligible as a Super Two because he lacked 86 days on the active roster in the immediately preceding season.)

Therefore, Soler’s new reps will have to help him determine whether to keep the existing deal, which promises $4MM annually through 2020, or instead to launch into the higher-upside, riskier waters of the arb process. If he keeps hitting as he has to this point in the 2018 season, going into arbitration might seem to be a pretty solid bet, though that’d mean giving up the guaranteed money for both of the two remaining seasons in hopes of commanding more in total.

Unless the contract specifies otherwise, it seems that Soler will be eligible for arbitration in the 2021 season regardless. But he could potentially earn more that year if he is seeking a raise from a loftier base rate than the $4MM that’s presently called for.

Whether the long-touted Soler is better off betting on continued production isn’t clear from the numbers. It has been a meandering path to this point. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2014 before seeing his productivity dwindle in the next two seasons. After being dealt from the Cubs to the Royals, he struggled badly in 2017 and spent most of the year on optional assignment — though he did hit rather well at Triple-A.

Now, Soler is back to driving the ball like he did in his debut campaign. Over 177 plate appearances in 2018, he owns a .297/.401/.486 batting line with five long balls and a career-high 13.0% walk rate. Though his .379 batting average on balls in play is sure to fade, Soler has made plenty of hard contact as well.

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