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Jorge Soler

Soler: Marlins Have Not Shown Interest This Offseason

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Slugger Jorge Soler opted out of the final season of his three-year, $36MM contract with the Marlins following the 2023 season, and while there’s been plenty of speculation about a potential reunion, Soler himself told reporters Tuesday that his former club hasn’t shown interest in re-signing him. “There has been no contact with the Marlins,” Soler told Yordano Carmona of Pelota Cubana and others at a training event hosted by the Cuban Professional Baseball Federation.

Early in the offseason, the Marlins were reported to have some level of interest in retaining Soler, but whatever interest they did or did not have apparently hasn’t resulted in talks between the two parties. The Mariners, Diamondbacks, Red Sox and Blue Jays have all been tied to Soler, to varying extents, over the past month. (Notably, the Mariners have signed Mitch Garver to a two-year contract and reacquired Mitch Haniger since first being linked to Soler, which could take them out of the running.) Whether any has made a formal offer isn’t clear, but with fellow righty-swinging slugger Teoscar Hernandez now off the board to the Dodgers, it’s possible Soler’s market could accelerate.

Soler, 32 in February, bashed 36 home runs and hit .250/.341/.512 in 580 trips to the plate with the Fish this past season. He did so while registering a 24.3% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate that both represent the second-best marks of his career. He posted an above-average .242/.326/.462 slash against right-handed opponents (110 wRC+) and absolutely demolished lefties with a .277/.393/.688 batting line that landed 81% better than league-average (181 wRC+).

Beyond the raw offensive output, Soler continued to post his annual brand of tantalizing batted-ball metrics; he averaged 91.3 mph off the bat and saw 48% of his batted balls top 95 mph. Both of those marks placed Soler in the top 20% of big league hitters, and he ranked in the top nine percent of MLB hitters with a 15% barrel rate.

Thunderous contact has long been a part of Soler’s game, but so have prodigious strikeout totals and questionable defense. His recent contact improvements have perhaps assuaged some concerns about the strikeouts. Soler recorded career-best contact rates on pitches in the strike zone (85.4%) and off the plate (60.1%) in 2023, leading to a career-high 75% overall contact rate. It’s still below the league average, but no longer egregiously so. And, for a player with this type of light-tower power, teams will typically live with some holes in the swing.

However, there’s no getting around the defensive concerns. Soler is best deployed as a primary designated hitter at this point. His once plus sprint speed has fallen to 26.6 feet per second (26th percentile of MLB hitters), and his arm strength clocks into just the 57th percentile. Miami trotted him out for just 241 innings of defense in right field last season, and most public metrics were quite down on his performance there (-5 Defensive Runs Saved, -3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating, -3 Outs Above Average).

A new club could still play Soler in the outfield on occasion — particularly with strikeout-heavy and/or grounder-heavy starters on the mound — and trust that he’ll at least make routine plays, but it seems doubtful any team would view him as an everyday corner outfield option. That said, there are very few power bats available on the open market this offseason, making Soler’s 36-homer platform year all the more appealing.

Soler has had roller-coaster of a career at the plate to some extent, but by measure of wRC+ he’s had just one below-average year overall dating back to 2018. In total, he’s slashed .243/.334/.486 over his past 2598 trips to the plate — numbers that don’t include his .242/.342/.606 postseason showing with the ’21 Braves, when he was named World Series MVP after belting three homers and plating six runs in the Fall Classic. He’s also considerably younger than fellow free agent DH candidates like J.D. Martinez (36) and Justin Turner (39), which could add to his appeal among teams seeking some right-handed thump.

Soler’s original three-year contract with the Marlins was signed when now-former general manager Kim Ng was running the team’s baseball operations. Ng declined her end of a mutual option at the beginning of the offseason, and the Marlins hired Rays general manager Peter Bendix as their new president of baseball operations.

Blue Jays Interested In Jorge Soler

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The Blue Jays have shown interest in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  Toronto joins the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Nationals, and Marlins as clubs linked to Soler’s market at various points this winter.

It isn’t any surprise that the Jays have joined the fray, as Toronto has reportedly been looking into numerous free agent and trade options on the position-player side.  With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto now off the board, the Blue Jays’ adds have been limited to more defense-oriented pickups like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, rather than any clear upgrades to what was a middling lineup in 2023.  Speaking with the media earlier this week, GM Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays might add perhaps just one more bat, “most likely be in the outfield or DH category.”

Soler fits that description, moreso as a designated hitter than as a viable regular in the outfield.  Soler has made only 89 appearances in the outfield for the Marlins over the last two seasons, operating as a part-time left fielder in 2022 and then a part-time right fielder in 2023.  Public defensive metrics have never liked Soler’s work in right field but he has been slightly closer to passable over his more limited experience of 875 career innings as a left fielder.

Since Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho are both left-handed hitters, a scenario exists where the right-handed hitting Soler could see some action in left field when a southpaw is on the mound, with one of Kiermaier/Varsho moving to the bench and the other playing in the center field.  As much as the Jays have prioritized defense over the last year, if Soler could match his 2022 left field numbers (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, -2.5 UZR/150) with his strong offensive numbers from 2023, that’s probably a tradeoff the Blue Jays would be happy to accept, especially since Soler would still be spending more of his time as a DH.

Soler hit .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs over 580 plate appearances for Miami last season, translating to a 126 wRC+.  It was a good enough year for Soler to exercise the opt-out clause in his deal, as he chose free agency and the promise of a larger contract over the one year and $13MM remaining on his Marlins contract.  Soler originally signed a three-year, $36MM pact with the Fish in the 2021-22 offseason but stumbled to a 95 wRC+ during an injury-marred 2022 campaign.

Though better health was a logical reason for Soler’s bounceback year, it also continued the pattern of inconsistency that has marked Soler’s 10 Major League seasons.  Breaking into the majors as a heavily-hyped prospect in the Cubs system, Soler has a 119 wRC+ over his career, bolstered by particularly strong offensive showings in 2018, 2019 (when he led the AL with 48 homers), and last season.  However, between his defensive showcomings and several other seasons when he has provided closer to league-average offense, Soler has only 7.4 fWAR to show for his 870 career games in the Show.

Perhaps the 2021 season is the best summation of Soler’s roller-coaster nature and high ceiling, as he struggled with the Royals before being traded to the Braves at the 2021 deadline.  The switch was suddenly flipped, as Soler went on a tear after joining the Braves and earned World Series MVP honors as Atlanta captured the championship.  Soler isn’t exactly a sure thing at the plate as he enters his age-32 season, and MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of a three-year, $45MM deal (Soler ranked 16th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) reflected this uncertainty about his offense, and his lack of defensive utility.

Still, at this relatively modest price tag, Soler might be something of a bargain if he keeps hitting as he did in 2023, and the move out of spacious loanDepot Park might also help Soler’s efforts.  As per Statcast’s Park Factor metrics, however, Toronto’s Rogers Centre was only slightly more hitter-friendly than loanDepot Park in 2023, which could deflect any combination of the Blue Jays’ lack of hitting, their strong pitching and defense, or some effects of the new outfield dimensions created by the Jays’ renovations to their ballpark.

Red Sox Fielding Trade Interest In Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen

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The Red Sox have received trade interest in left fielder Masataka Yoshida, report Jen McCaffrey and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. McCaffrey and Rosenthal write that while the Sox aren’t actively shopping Yoshida, they’re open to ways to restructure the outfield.

That aligns with a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe last week the Sox were considering dealing an outfielder. The Sox would have more suitors if they shopped an affordable, controllable player like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu. Finding a suitable match on Yoshida would be more difficult, but it’s a possibility that’d clear some desired spending room.

Another move that’d allow the Sox to shed some money: a trade of closer Kenley Jansen. Speier reported this evening that Boston is entertaining interest in the four-time All-Star. Yoshida and Jansen were each free agent pickups last offseason.

Boston signed Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM contract. (They also paid a $15.375MM posting fee to Yoshida’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes.) It was a bet on the left-handed hitter transitioning smoothly to MLB pitching. The 30-year-old had mixed results in his first big league campaign. Yoshida hit .289/.338/.445 over 580 plate appearances. He showed strong strike zone awareness and excellent pure contact skills, yet it wasn’t an overwhelming offensive performance.

Yoshida hit 15 home runs and walked less than 6% of the time he stepped to the plate. Listed at 5’8″ and 176 pounds, he doesn’t have the raw power of a prototypical slugger. Yet the profile is built around his bat, as Yoshida has drawn below-average reviews for his glove dating back to his time in Japan. He’s limited to left field or designated hitter and received subpar grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Detractors pointed to those defensive and power questions when Yoshida was available via the posting system last winter. The Sox, under former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, were confident he’d hit enough to overcome that. With Bloom having since been replaced by Craig Breslow, the front office might be less bullish on his projection.

Yoshida’s contract calls for $18MM salaries for the next four seasons. It’s unlikely he’d have landed a $72MM deal covering his age 30-33 campaigns if he were a free agent this winter. As a result, Boston would probably have to offset a chunk of the money to move him — either by including cash considerations or taking some money back in the deal.

Jansen would be a much different trade candidate. His $16MM salary next season isn’t far below what Yoshida will make. He’d be a much shorter-term commitment, though, as he’ll be a free agent after 2024. Jansen had a solid but not overpowering first season with the Sox, pitching to a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.7% of opponents, an above-average mark that nevertheless represented the lowest rate of his career. He still successfully nailed down 29 of 33 save chances, but he wasn’t quite as dominant as he’d been for the Dodgers or Braves.

Boston has a fair amount of depth in both the outfield and the bullpen. That at least opens the possibility of offloading cash in those areas to clear space for other targets. Speier wrote tonight the front office is still seeking starting pitching and a right-handed power bat.

The Sox have been tied to free agent Teoscar Hernández throughout the offseason. Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Boston is also among the team showing interest in Jorge Soler. Either player would provide plenty of juice from the right side. A Yoshida trade would open a path to playing time in left field or DH. However, Speier indicates the Red Sox have been unwilling to offer more than two guaranteed years to Hernández, who is holding out for a three-plus year pact. It’s unclear if they’d be open to a third year on Soler.

In any case, there are obviously a number of possibilities the front office is still considering. The Sox have also been tied to a number of free agent rotation options, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Recent reporting has indicated that Imanaga appears a more realistic target than Snell or Montgomery, although the NPB left-hander could top $100MM himself. Speier characterizes the Red Sox as “lurking” on Imanaga but indicates they may not be among the most involved suitors. The southpaw will make his decision before the posting window closes next Thursday.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jorge Soler/J.D. Martinez

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While the current free agent market for position players has generally been seen as one of the weaker ones in recent memory, there is one area where this winter’s crop has notable depth: right-handed sluggers. That market, at which Teoscar Hernandez resides as the clear top option this winter, is typically deepest at the lower levels of free agency. This season’s crop certainly has some depth at that level as well, with the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham currently available. The middle of the free agent market is where this group stands out, however. Mitch Garver has already landed with the Mariners on a two-year deal, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins and veteran infielder Justin Turner among the other options still available.

Two of the best regarded players in this part of the market are sluggers Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez. Both are primarily used as designated hitters and are coming off strong platform campaigns that saw them rebound from down performances in the previous three campaigns. Both have flashed 40-homer power in their careers previously, and both project for a similar guarantee this offseason: in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, MLBTR projected Soler for three years and $45MM guaranteed while Martinez projected for two years and $40MM.

Martinez sports the stronger platform campaign, having slugged 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate while slashing .271/.321/.572 with a wRC+ of 135. The veteran slugger also has the more prestigious track record as a six-time All Star who finished fourth in AL MVP voting back in 2018. Since Martinez broke out as a member of the Tigers back in 2014, he’s slashed an impressive .293/.359/.550 while never posting a below-average wRC+ in a full season. During that time, only Manny Machado, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado have slugged more homers than Martinez among active players, and his 140 wRC+ during that time ranks 12th among all active players. By contrast, Soler’s career-high wRC+ falls short of that impressive 140 mark and Soler has often interspersed seasons closer to league average between his All Star-caliber peaks.

That being said, Soler has some notable advantages of his own. Most obviously, he’s entering his age-32 campaign, while Martinez turned 36 back in August. That four year age gap also leaves Soler as less of a risk to suffer age-related decline over the course of his next contract. Teams could be particularly concerned about Martinez’s durability after he missed over a month with back and groin issues in 2023, causing him to appear in just 113 games for the Dodgers last season. On the other hand, of course, Soler missed the entire second half of the 2022 season due to a pelvis injury, though he was largely healthy this past season.

Aside from his relative youth and better health in 2023, Soler is among the most reliable players in the game when it comes to drawing walks, as demonstrated by his 11% walk rate since the start of the 2016 season. In fact, Soler is one of just 13 players to post a walk rate over 10% in each of the past eight seasons. That’s a list that does not include Martinez, who last posted a walk rate at that level back in 2019. That steady demonstration of plate discipline also highlights the fact that Soler’s strikeout rate has steadily improved in recent years, even as Martinez’s has begun to balloon.

While Soler’s career strikeout rate of 26.7% is two points higher than Martinez’s own career mark of 24.7%, they’ve been trending in opposite directions. Soler struck out at a career 27.9% clip through the end of the shortened 2020 season, while Martinez sported a strikeout rate of 24.2%. Over the past three seasons, however, Martinez has actually struck out more often than Soler with a 26% strikeout rate against Soler’s 25.1% figure.

Much of that has to do with the 2023 campaign, where Martinez struck out in a career-high 31.1% of plate appearances while Soler’s own 24.3% rate was the second-lowest of his career. While that shift toward whiffs has allowed Martinez to access more of his previous prodigious power after a down season in 2022 that saw him slug just 16 home runs, it’s fair to wonder if some clubs may prefer Soler’s more balanced approach to Martinez’s pure power profile, even as the veteran slugger outperformed Soler by nine points of wRC+ in 2023.

While that may not be enough to make Soler a more attractive target than Martinez, one elephant in the room that has not yet been addressed is defense. Soler’s glove leaves much to be desired, as demonstrated by his -5 Outs Above Average in right field this year and his -29 figure in the outfield since the start of the 2016 season. While Soler’s defense doesn’t offer much value to teams, it can’t be ignored that he is at least capable of playing a corner outfield spot on a semi-regular basis, something that cannot be said for Martinez.

The veteran slugger last appeared regularly on the grass back in 2017, when he was a member of the Diamondbacks before NL teams had access to the DH. By contrast, Soler has made 182 starts in the outfield corners over the past three seasons, more than half of the games he’s appeared in during that time. Even as Soler is far from a quality defender in the outfield, Martinez lacks the ability to play the outfield on more than an emergency basis at this stage of his career, complicating his fit for teams that already have a player on the roster who receives semi-frequent starts at DH or even simply prefer to use the DH as a way to rest regulars throughout the season.

Given the pair’s many similarities, it’s hardly a surprise that the two sluggers have somewhat overlapping markets this winter. Both have been directly to connected to the Mariners and Diamondbacks this offseason, while the Mets, Angels, and Blue Jays are all also known to have at least some interest in adding a bat-first slugger to their lineups this offseason. Martinez has generally been connected to those latter teams more frequently than Soler, though both players figure to be fits for each of the aforementioned teams this offseason to say nothing of clubs like the Marlins and Brewers who have not yet been connected to this area of the market but would surely benefit from another bat-first player in the lineup.

So, which one do you think teams should prioritize? Is Martinez’s lengthy track record and unparalleled power potential too enticing to pass up, or does Soler’s youth, ability to play defense, and more balanced approach in recent years outweigh those considerations?

Mariners, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jorge Soler

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The Mariners and Diamondbacks are among the clubs with interest in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Soler opted out of the final year and $13MM on his three-year contract with the Marlins at the beginning of the offseason.

That decision came as little surprise when looking at Soler’s production this past season. The 31-year-old (32 in February) popped 36 home runs while slashing .250/.341/.512 in 580 plate appearances with Miami. His 11.4% walk rate was the second-highest of his career and best since 2016, while his 24.3% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Soler averaged a hefty 91.3 mph off the bat and ranked in the 91st percentile of all MLB hitters in terms of “barreled” ball rate, as defined by Statcast. In a market largely devoid of power bats, Soler has clear middle-of-the-order upside, and his recent K/BB improvements are particularly encouraging.

The Marlins are said to have some interest in a reunion, but both Seattle and Arizona are obvious fits for a hitter of this skill set. The Mariners opted not to make Teoscar Hernandez a qualifying offer and let him walk in free agency, removing one of their top power bats in the process. They later traded Eugenio Suarez and his $12MM salary to the D-backs, receiving backup catcher Seby Zavala and high-upside reliever Carlos Vargas in the process. The M’s also engineered a salary-motivated deal sending Marco Gonzales and Evan White to the Braves alongside Jarred Kelenic, netting righties Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips in the process.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said earlier this offseason that he hoped to lower the team’s strikeout rate, and moving on from both Hernandez (31.1%) and Suarez (30.8%) work toward that end. Soler has long had strikeout issues of his own, but he’s at 25.1% over the past three seasons. That’s a notable decrease from both Hernandez and Suarez, and Soler has more power than either player. Dipoto has also spoken this winter about how he’d be comfortable deploying a full-time designated hitter. Soler, of course, would fit that billing. He can still play right or left field in a pinch, but his defensive deficiencies are well known.

The trades of Suarez, Gonzales and White have left the M’s with a projected payroll under $120MM. Dipoto, meanwhile, has suggested that despite the cost-cutting measures so far this winter, the overall payroll could still rise higher than last year’s $140MM mark. There’s room to add Soler and still pursue other offensive upgrades (particularly if the Soler deal is backloaded). Soler is also quite familiar with new Mariners hitting coach Brant Brown, who held the same role in Miami last year.

Down in Arizona, the D-backs have significantly boosted payroll by acquiring Suarez and agreeing with Eduardo Rodriguez on a four-year, $80MM contract. Their projected $133MM payroll is a tick higher than the franchise-record mark of $131.5MM, but the Snakes are also coming off an unexpected deep postseason run that saw them advance all the way to the World Series. Presumably, there’s some extra resources in their supply as a result of that increase in revenue. And, the surge into the Fall Classic’s spotlight in many ways shows that the core of this group has arrived, and the time to supplement it is now.

Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks’ preference would be for a right-handed bat that can slot into the middle of the lineup. Again, Soler fits that description aptly. The D-backs have an all left-handed outfield (Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher), so adding Soler for some occasional corner work and plenty of designated hitter plate appearances would help to balance out the lineup.

There’ll surely be competition for Soler’s services, and the question of asking price is paramount for a pair of suitors who are likely working with limited financial maneuverability, to varying extents. Rosenthal suggests both Arizona and Seattle would prefer to spread out their remaining resources over multiple hitters. Without knowing exactly how high D-backs owner Ken Kendrick is willing to take payroll, it’s hard to say whether there’d be room to add Soler and look for further supplements (at least via free agency). With regard to the Mariners, it seems plenty feasible to sign Soler to a multi-year deal — MLBTR predicted a three-year, $45MM deal, for what it’s worth — and still have room to make some further additions if the payroll indeed can increase over last year’s roughly $140MM threshold.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

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The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
  • The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Jorge Soler Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler is drawing interest from “around 6 teams,” reports Francys Romero, adding that the Marlins are interested in bringing him back on a multi-year deal.

Soler, 32 in February, is coming off a strong year though his overall career is defined by inconsistency. In 2023, he hit 36 home runs in 137 games while walking in 11.4% of his plate appearances. His 24.3% strikeout rate was slightly above league average but a strong result relative to his own previous seasons. His overall batting line of .250/.341/.512 resulted in a wRC+ of 126. He did most of that damage from the DH slot, only taking the field in 32 games on the year.

That was the best form Soler had shown since late 2021. That year, he hit just .192/.288/.370 for the Royals but then was traded to Atlanta and got in a good groove. He hit .269/.358/.524 in the regular season after the deal and then .242/.342/.606 in the postseason, winning World Series MVP in the process. That led to a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins, with Soler able to opt out after each season.

The first year with Miami didn’t go well, with injuries limiting him to 72 games and a tepid line of .207/.295/.400. He declined his first opt-out chance and returned to the Marlins before getting on track with the aforementioned strong 2023 season. He triggered his second opt-out and is now free to sign with any club, with this year’s market generally light on impact bats. MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents put Soler in the #16 slot with a prediction of three years and $45MM.

There would be risk in giving such a contract to a player like Soler with his oscillating results, but the market conditions should help him out and it’s unsurprising multiple clubs are interested. A return to Miami is sensible from their perspective since they could use his slugging ability. The club had a wRC+ of 94 in the season that just ended, which placed them just outside the bottom 10, and now face the possibility of losing their best power hitter in Soler.

Whether he’s a top priority would be a fair question to ask, however. Neither the shortstop nor catching position provided much for the Marlins in 2023 and those positions stand out as more important targets than corner outfield/designated hitter, where the club has Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and Avisaíl García. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll just under $100MM. Non-tendering a few players in their arbitration class such as Garrett Hampson and Jacob Stallings could knock that down a bit, but they would still be in range of last year’s payroll. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their 2023 Opening Day payroll at $93MM, meaning the Marlins might need a sizeable increase to consider adding Soler, as well as finding solutions to their other weak spots.

Jorge Soler Opts Out Of Deal With Marlins

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Jorge Soler has informed the Marlins he is declining his $13MM player option for next season, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). He is a free agent and will be able to begin negotiating with other teams on Monday.

It’s an entirely unsurprising decision. Soler, 32 in February, is coming off his best season in a few years. He connected on 36 home runs with a .250/.341/.512 batting line. The right-handed hitter walked at a strong 11.4% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a manageable 24.3%.

That marked a strong rebound showing after a tough first year in South Florida. Originally signed to a three-year, $36MM guarantee during the 2021-22 offseason, Soler slumped to a .207/.295/.400 slash over 72 games a season ago. He had an opt-out possibility last winter but understandably forewent a trip to the open market. With a much better platform performance, he’ll get to the market this time around.

While Soler’s opt-out call was made without much suspense, it puts the onus on Miami to answer a more interesting question. The Fish have until Monday to determine whether to tender a $20.325MM qualifying offer. If they do, Soler would have just over a week to gauge the market before deciding if he wants to accept.

In the event Miami opts against the QO or Soler declines one, he’ll be one of the top offensive players in a rough free agent class. Soler doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s a well below-average corner outfielder who spent the majority of his time at designated hitter this past season. Miami plugged him into right field for just 241 2/3 innings. Few impending free agents can match his power upside, although Soler’s pre-2023 production has been inconsistent.

Miami’s QO decision is clouded by an uncertain front office picture. General manager Kim Ng recently departed the organization and the club has yet to name her replacement. Brian Chattin is leading the front office on an interim basis. Miami also awaits an opt-out decision from first baseman Josh Bell, while they’re sure to decline team provisions on Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Marlins Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Marlins announced a handful of roster moves this morning, activating outfielder Jorge Soler from the 10-day injured list and selecting the contract of right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez. In corresponding moves, the club optioned left-hander Josh Simpson and outfielder Dane Myers to Triple-A. Miami’s 40-man roster is now full following Gonzalez’s selection.

Soler returns after missing most of the month to this point with a right oblique strain. The 31-year-old is in the midst of his strongest season since 2019, having slashed .240/.329/.513 with 35 home runs and a wRC+ of 124 this season. Soler’s return should provide a boost to a Miami lineup that has posted a collective wRC+ of just 84 since Soler headed to the shelf. Soler has primarily played DH while mixing in occasional starts in right field throughout the 2023 campaign. Assuming that trend contributes, Soler figures to push Josh Bell from DH to first base, with Luis Arraez moving from first to second while Xavier Edwards heads to the bench, though Soler’s return could also cut into the playing time of corner bats Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez should he see more time in right going forward.

As for Gonzalez, the former first round pick made his Marlins debut earlier this season, posting 2 2/3 innings of work for the club. He allowed a 3.38 ERA in that brief cameo, striking out two while walking one. Gonzalez was designated for assignment back in May to clear room on the 40-man roster for top pitching prospect Eury Perez, but stayed in the Marlins organization throughout this season. His results at the Triple-A level have left something to be desired, with a 6.07 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 13% in 121 2/3 innings of work for the club’s affiliate in Jacksonville. Still, as a veteran in his seventh big league season, the 31-year-old righty can offer Miami’s bullpen a depth option with previous experience in both a relief role and as a member of the starting rotation.

Exiting the roster in favor of incoming veterans are Simpson, a 26-year-old lefty who has yet to make his major league debut, and outfielder Myers, who made his MLB debut earlier this year and has slashed .269/.286/.358 in 70 trips to the plate with the Marlins since then. Both players figure to return to Triple-A to act as depth options while Miami enters the home stretch of their push toward the club’s first playoff appearance in a full season since 2003.

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