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Giants Intend To Keep Jordan Hicks In Rotation

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The Giants continue to view Jordan Hicks as a starting pitcher, baseball operations president Buster Posey said this afternoon (X link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The 28-year-old righty finished this past season in the bullpen.

San Francisco signed Hicks to a four-year, $44MM free agent contract last winter. They gave the hard-throwing sinkerballer a starting job. That was Hicks’ first extended rotation work. He had started eight games for the Cardinals in 2022 but moved back to the bullpen relatively early in that year. He was a full-time reliever in ’23 before getting the rotation spot with the Giants.

Hicks showed early promise as a starter. He posted a 2.70 earned run average over 12 starts through the end of May. It looked as if Hicks would be a reliever-to-rotation success story in the Seth Lugo or Michael King mold, but things went off the rails midway through the year. Hicks’ velocity trended down each month. While he averaged 95.6 MPH on his sinker in April, that was down to 93.4 MPH by July. The results sharply dropped with it, as he posted a 5.24 ERA in June and allowed nearly a run per inning in July.

San Francisco kicked Hicks to the bullpen by the end of that month. He pitched well in the more familiar one-inning role but battled shoulder inflammation late in the year. Hicks finished the season with a 4.10 ERA in a career-high 109 2/3 innings. The rate production was around average when all was said and done, but it was an up-and-down year.

Given the way Hicks wore down physically, it was fair to wonder if the Giants would move him back to relief for good. Posey also wasn’t responsible for signing him as a starter, a move that came under previous front office leader Farhan Zaidi. Nevertheless, it seems they’ll give Hicks another shot at a rotation spot.

Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison are locked into rotation roles going into camp. If Hicks takes the fourth spot, that’d leave one job up for grabs. That’ll probably be an external acquisition of some kind. The Giants have been linked to Corbin Burnes, though that reported interest predated their $182MM agreement with Willy Adames. It’s not clear if they’re still willing to play at the top of the rotation market. There are a number of more affordable possibilities in the middle tiers of free agency. Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp are the top internal candidates for the fifth starter role. They each have options and could open next season in Triple-A if San Francisco makes an addition.

In other pitching news, Posey downplayed the possibility of trading former closer Camilo Doval (relayed on X by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). The Giants have gotten interest in the one-time All-Star, who struggled to a 4.88 ERA as his command deteriorated this year. Trading Doval this winter would be selling low, though, and the Giants are already a bit thin at the back of the bullpen. Ryan Walker had a breakout season to take the ninth inning, while Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers are in potential leverage roles. Doval, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to make $4.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, represents a volatile middle innings option.

NL Injury Notes: Glasnow, Hicks, Wicks, Kinley

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The Dodgers moved Tyler Glasnow to the 60-day injured list on Wednesday, all but officially ruling him out for the rest of the season. The lanky right-hander spoke with reporters (including Jack Harris and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) and essentially confirmed he won’t be back in the playoffs. Glasnow called it “extremely frustrating” to be dealing with an elbow sprain, though he indicated he’s confident he will not require any kind of surgical repair.

Glasnow tossed 134 innings across 22 starts in his first season with the Dodgers. He established new career marks in both categories, though the season-ending elbow injury isn’t going to quiet concerns about his durability. Glasnow remained effective as ever before the injury, turning in a 3.49 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate.

A few more Senior Circuit injury notes as noncompetitive teams shut some players down:

  • Shoulder inflammation sent Jordan Hicks to the injured list, ending his season. The Giants recalled Austin Warren to take his spot in the bullpen. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Hicks will go for an MRI tomorrow. The first season of his four-year, $44MM free agent deal was a mixed bag. Hicks moved to the rotation for the first extended stretch of his career. The sinkerballer pitched well early, carrying a 2.70 ERA in 12 appearances through the end of May. He seemed to wear down quickly thereafter, allowing a 6.37 ERA over his next eight starts. The Giants moved him back to the bullpen at the end of July, but he continued to struggle in relief. Hicks allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with six strikeouts and walks apiece over 11 frames out of the ’pen.
  • The Cubs placed left-hander Jordan Wicks on the injured list with a right oblique strain. Trey Wingenter is up from Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move. Wicks had returned from a stint on the 60-day IL at the start of September. That was also on account of a right oblique strain, while the southpaw also missed time with an early-season forearm problem. It’s a frustrating second season for the former first-round pick. Wicks struggled when healthy enough to take the mound, allowing a 5.48 ERA across 46 innings in 11 appearances (10 starts).
  • Rockies closer Tyler Kinley landed on the shelf with elbow inflammation. Colorado recalled Jake Bird to take the open bullpen spot. It’s his second elbow-related IL stint in as many months. Kinley missed the second half of 2022 and most of last season after undergoing elbow surgery. He was healthy for most of this year but hasn’t found anything close to the success he enjoyed before the surgery two years ago. Kinley allowed a 6.19 ERA over 64 innings. He fanned a quarter of batters faced but walked more than 11% of opponents while struggling with the home run ball.

Giants Place Jordan Hicks On Injured List

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The Giants announced that they have placed right-hander Jordan Hicks on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Righty Austin Warren was recalled as the corresponding move. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relayed the details prior to the official announcement (X link one and two).

Hicks was warming up during Friday’s game but didn’t eventually enter the contest. He later said he felt a “zinger” down his arm while getting ready, per Slusser, though he stayed with the club through the weekend. He appeared in Saturday’s game but with diminished velocity. His sinker usually averages between 96 and 97 miles per hour but was around 94 in his most recent outing, per Statcast. It now seems the club has decided to give him some time to rest and heal up.

It’s unclear how long Hicks will be out of action but it’s a blow to the pitching staff regardless. Hicks was in the starting rotation for much of the year but seemed to run out of steam, as his results tapered off as time went on. He had a 3.01 earned run average after his start on June 11, but then posted a 6.83 ERA from June 17 to July 28. He’s been in a bullpen role lately, with six scoreless outings to start the month of August before he allowed one earned run in his Saturday appearance.

Earlier this month, the club put Randy Rodríguez on the injured list. Today, Robbie Ray joined him and now Hicks will hit the shelf as well. The Giants are 66-66 and clinging to life in the National League Wild Card race. They are 5.5 games back of a spot but would need to leapfrog at least three teams while also holding off the clubs just behind them. Doing so will be more challenging now that some key arms have been subtracted from the staff.

Warren, 28, underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year while with the Angels and that club designated him for assignment in February. Since injured players aren’t allowed to be placed on outright waivers, he was released and signed a major league deal with the Giants. Since he was still working his way back from surgery, the Giants moved him to the 60-day injured list in February when they signed Jorge Soler.

He was reinstated from the 60-day injured list in July, thus retaking his spot on the 40-man roster, but was optioned to the minors. He has thrown 20 Triple-A innings this year with a 4.95 ERA but better peripherals. He has struck out 26.1% of batters faced, walked 6.8% of them and gotten grounders at a 41.2% rate. A .327 batting average on balls in play, 63% strand rate and 17.6% homer to fly ball rate have helped push some extra runs across the board in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments: July Edition

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About a quarter of the way through the 2024 season, I took a look at how the most prominent examples of teams’ attempts to turn an established reliever into a starter had progressed. At the time, the majority of these experiments were going well, by and large. At that mid-May juncture, most of the relievers making the switch had yet to reach their innings workloads from the season prior. Now that we’re at the season’s halfway point, that’s no longer the case. Many of the pitchers striving to make this jump are now approaching or have already eclipsed their 2023 innings totals — if not their career-high workloads — so it seems a good time to check back on how they’re faring.

As a reminder, the focus here is pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Someone like the Rays’ Zack Littell or Red Sox’ Kutter Crawford, who moved into the rotation last summer and continued that move this year, isn’t the focus.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Stats at quarter mark: 9 games started, 46 2/3 innings, 4.63 ERA (2.47 SIERA), 34.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 43.8 GB%

Stats since: 9 GS, 54 2/3 innings, 1.65 ERA (2.27 SIERA), 36.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.5 GB%

At the 25% mark of the season, Crochet sat on a pedestrian ERA but elite K-BB profile. His production had been skewed by a series of three straight rough outings: five runs versus the Reds, seven in Philadelphia and another five in Minnesota.

Those three starts still stand as the worst three of his season. Crochet hasn’t yielded more than three runs in a single outing since that time. He’s not only maintained his elite K-BB profile but improved upon it, slightly upping his strikeout rate while sustaining his exceptional command. No starter in baseball is striking out hitters at a higher rate than Crochet, and only 12 are limiting their walks more effectively.

At last check, Crochet had ace-like rate stats but pedestrian run-prevention numbers overall. That’s no longer the case. The only question as to whether Crochet is a bona fide No. 1 starter is one of durability. All of the pieces are there, but Crochet has never pitched a full season in the rotation. In fact, this year’s combined 101 1/3 innings not only stand as a career-high, they eclipse his combined total of professional innings pitched — majors and minors combined — since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

With two and a half years of team control left, a bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary and the worst team in baseball behind him, Crochet stands as a clear-cut trade candidate. The Sox reportedly broached the possibility of an extension with him but are now expecting to trade him after contract talks failed to progress. A new team will have to worry about how Crochet will hold up down the stretch, but there’s little doubting that he’s a front-of-the-rotation talent.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Stats at quarter mark: 9 GS, 48 innings, 2.44 ERA (3.99 SIERA), 19.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 56.2 GB%

Stats since: 8 GS, 37 2/3 innings, 4.54 ERA (4.29 SIERA), 22.2 K%, 10.2 BB%, 45.8 GB%

Early on, Hicks was thriving in terms of run-prevention in spite of a pedestrian strikeout rate. He’s picked up the strikeout rate a bit since that time but has seen his command, ground-ball rate and velocity all drop. After averaging 5 1/3 innings through his first nine starts, Hicks is averaging about 4 2/3 innings per outing and has seen his average sinker velocity drop by nearly two miles per hour. Since mid-May, his sinker is averaging 93.5 mph — down from the 95.5 mph at last check and even further from the 100.2 mph Hicks averaged in his time as a reliever.

Hicks has struggled to turn the lineup over multiple times. Opponents own an awful .196/.268/.348 slash when facing him the first time in a game. Unlike many pitchers, who experience a stark drop when facing opponents a third time, Hicks’ troubles begin the second trip through the order. Opponents in those settings carry a .267/.373/.382 slash. He’s only faced a hitter for the third time on a given day 57 times this season, but opponents have batted .283/.333/.434 in that small sample.

Back in May, I noted that opponents had posted an embarrassing .079/.167/.105 slash in the 42 plate appearances Hicks had finished off with a splitter. They’ve fared better against the pitch since that time, though it’d be hard to have performed much worse. And, with opponents still slashing only .160/.244/.272 against the pitch (which Statcast credits with a .270 expected wOBA), that newly implemented offering still has the look of a plus pitch.

Hicks has remained reasonably effective but hasn’t been the roaring success he was through the first quarter of the season. San Francisco signed the 27-year-old flamethrower to a four-year, $44MM deal and did so with an eye toward Hicks starting, so it’s clear this is a multi-year undertaking. Nothing Hicks has done to date suggests he decidedly can’t handle being a starter, but he’s faded from his early-season production, which is perhaps to be expected for a pitcher whose 85 2/3 innings are already a career-high mark.

The manner in which Hicks has begun to fade only further underscores the remarkable nature of Crochet’s performance to date as he navigates uncharted workload territory. That said, Hicks has an overall 3.36 ERA with a nearly average strikeout rate, a manageable walk rate and a plus ground-ball rate. There have been some roadblocks of late, but this year could serve as a launching pad to a better performance in 2025-27, when he’s more accustomed to his current workload.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 40 1/3 innings, 1.34 ERA (4.00 SIERA), 25.2 K%, 10.1 BB%, 40.2 GB%

Stats since: 7 GS, 39 innings, 2.08 ERA (3.58 SIERA), 26.1 K%, 7.0 BB%, 32.7 GB%

The Braves have been judicious with Lopez’s start-by-start workload thus far. He hasn’t topped 94 pitches in a single appearance and has only recorded four outs after the sixth inning all season. So far, that level of caution has paid off. Since last check, Lopez hasn’t lost any life of his heater and has actually tacked on 0.4 mph on average, per Statcast.

Atlanta doesn’t often give Lopez the opportunity to turn the lineup over a third time, and the opportunities he’s had haven’t gone well. Lopez has yielded a mid-.500s OPS to opponents the first or second time through the order but has been tagged for a .245/.359/.396 batting line the third time through. It’s not egregious, but it’s far less dominant than his first couple trips through a lineup.

Lopez is still running a plus strikeout rate, and he’s improved his command and his velocity as the season has worn on. As the only member of this list who’s previously worked multiple full seasons as a starter, he might have been the best-equipped to handle this transition, and so far it doesn’t appear he’s slowing down much at all.

Lopez entered the season with a career 71.1% strand rate, and he’s currently stranding 86.3% of his baserunners. His .279 average on balls in play is lower than league average but right in line with his career .281 mark. He’s allowed only 0.45 homers per nine frames, thanks in large part to a paltry 4.7% homer-to-flyball ratio that sits well shy of his career 11.3% mark. There’s some correlation there; it’s easier to strand runners if you’re almost never allowing a ball to clear the outfield fence, after all. In all likelihood, both that HR/FB and strand rate will trend toward his career marks as the season (and, more broadly, his three-year contract) wears on, but the outside-the-box bet on Lopez as a starter looks like one that will pay off for Atlanta.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 38 2/3 innings, 3.72 ERA (4.03 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 61.5 GB%

Stats since: 5 GS, 33 2/3 innings, 3.21 ERA (3.97 SIERA), 16.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 58.6 GB%

Soriano was continuing his sharp start to the season when he was scratched from a mid-June start due to abdominal pain. The Halos discovered an infection in the young righty’s abdomen that required a trip to the injured list and was expected to sideline him a few weeks. That’s thrown a bit of a wrench into his rotation breakout, though there’s no indication it’s a serious issue and the Halos can take solace in the fact that there’s no arm issue at play. And, after pitching just 65 1/3 innings last season, Soriano is already at 72 1/3 frames this year, so perhaps it can serve as a well-timed breather for his right arm.

The 25-year-old Soriano’s first run as a starter in the big leagues this season looked promising through mid-May and continues to do so. Impressively, he hasn’t lost any life on his four-seamer or sinker despite the shift from short relief to starting work. Statcast measured his average four-seamer at 98.9 mph in both 2023 and 2024, while his sinker clocked in at an average of 97.7 mph in 2023 and is actually marginally better in 2024 at 97.8 mph.

That sinker has helped Soriano run up an elite ground-ball rate; his 60.1% grounder rate ranks third among the 145 big league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year, trailing only Framber Valdez (61.4%) and Cristopher Sanchez (60.3%). That uptick in grounder rate over last year’s 51% mark correlates with a huge spike in Soriano’s sinker usage (13.3% in ’23, 40% in ’24). The extra sinker usage has come at the expense of some four-seamers (25.8% in ’23, 17.8% in ’24) and particularly Soriano’s knuckle curve (41.2% in ’23, 27.5% in ’24).

The tweak in repertoire could come down to a pursuit of efficiency as Soriano looks to work deeper into games. The right-hander fanned 30.3% of opponents last season and registered a hearty 14.8% swinging-strike rate but also required 16.6 pitches per inning pitched, on average. In 2024, his strikeout rate is down to 20.3% with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate. But he’s significantly upped his grounder rate and is now averaging just 15.1 pitches per frame. Soriano averaged 6 2/3 innings per start in the five appearances between our last check and this one, so it seems clear he’s placing an emphasis on being able to work deeper into games in his new role. Opponents are hitting .313/.421/.521 in 58 plate appearances when facing him a third time, so the results aren’t there so far, however.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Stats at quarter mark: 11 G (5 GS), 34 innings, 2.65 ERA (4.60 SIERA), 20.4 K%, 10.9 BB%, 39.1 GB%

Stats since: 9 G (4 GS), 44 innings, 5.52 ERA (4.27 SIERA), 17.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, 41.3 GB%

Wilson hasn’t technically “started” each of his past nine appearances, but he’s averaged five innings per outing while working as a starter and bulk reliever (on the heels of an opener). Effectively, the Brewers are using him as a starter — they’re just shielding him from the top-third of some lineups on occasion, when the matchup dictates.

This wasn’t a planned move to a longer role. The former Braves top prospect and Pirates hurler entered the season slated for a second straight season as Milwaukee’s long man, but injuries to Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Robert Gasser and DL Hall combined to not only push Wilson into this rotation-ish role but to keep him there. After pitching 76 2/3 innings of pure long relief in 2023, Wilson is already at 78 frames and counting.

As one would typically expect, Wilson’s fastball has taken a slight dip as he’s stretched out for longer stints. He averaged 94 mph through the season’s first quarter, but several of those earlier appearances were still in short relief. He’s averaging 93.2 mph since mid-May and has seen his strikeout rate drop but also seen his walk rate improve. As he’s been tasked with facing more lefties, Wilson has upped his changeup and cutter usage a bit, doing so at the expense of his four-seamer and curveball.

Wilson has been far too homer-prone this season (1.62 HR/9) and is giving up too much hard contact (45.8%, per Statcast). More so than any pitcher on this list, he’s run into troubles the third time through the order; in 45 such plate appearances, they’ve posted a Herculean .400/.467/.650 slash. Those plate appearances account for just 13.6% of Wilson’s batters faced this season but have resulted in 21.5% of his home runs allowed. Wilson seems best suited for a long relief role or a five-inning start/bulk role, but he’s pitched more than five innings six times this season and is giving Milwaukee some desperately needed innings when their rotation is in tatters.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

Stats at quarter mark: 4 GS, 13 2/3 innings, 9.22 ERA (7.13 SIERA), 15.6 K%, 22.1 BB%, 31.9 GB%

Stats since: 0  GS, 21 1/3 innings, 2.95 ERA (3.36 SIERA), 21.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.3 GB%

The Marlins quickly pulled the plug on the Puk rotation experiment, and it’s worked out for all parties. The former No. 6 overall pick (A’s, 2016) turned heads as a starter in spring training but was shelled in what currently stand as the only four starts of his big league career (though Puk was a starter both for the University of Florida and in the minor leagues).

It’s unlikely that Puk would’ve continued to struggle quite so substantially had Miami continued using him as a starter, but the left-hander certainly looks more comfortable in the short relief role in which he thrived from 2022-23 (123 innings, 3.51 ERA, 19 saves, 22 holds, 29.4 K%, 6.9 BB%). He’s performing far better in his old role, and he required a three-week stint on the injured list for shoulder fatigue following his early start in the rotation.

There’s no reason to fault the Marlins for trying to stretch out a clearly talented reliever who has a track record in the rotation, but Puk is back in the bullpen and figures to draw attention over the next month from teams seeking left-handed bullpen help. He’s controllable through the 2026 season.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

Stats at quarter mark: 7 G (5 GS), 39 2/3 innings, 5.45 ERA (4.44 SIERA), 19.1 K%, 6.9 BB%, 30.4 GB%

Stats since: 3 G (1 GS), 17 innings, 7.94 ERA (3.68 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 1.4 BB%, 27.8 GB%

Alexander entered the season in the same type of role Wilson currently holds with the Brewers: occasional starter and frequent bulk reliever behind an opener. He made a handful of solid appearances early on, though the value of those was offset by some particularly rough outings versus the Yankees (six runs in seven innings) and the Royals (eight runs in five innings).

Following our last check-in, Alexander made three appearances before being optioned to Triple-A Durham, where he’s worked quite effectively out of the Bulls’ rotation: five starts, 29 2/3 innings, 3.64 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate. That should position him as a depth option in the event of a big league injury and/or trade. Tampa Bay reportedly has considered fielding offers on current members of its big league rotation — Zack Littell and Aaron Civale, most notably. Part of that is due to the looming returns of Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs, but Alexander gives them another rotation candidate who’s performed well recently in Durham.

The Rays haven’t abandoned the Alexander starting experiment, but for the time being he’s not in their big league rotation plans. Speculatively, that could make Alexander himself a trade option for teams seeking back-of-the-rotation depth, though if the Rays do ultimately move Littell, Civale or a more expensive arm like Zach Eflin, they may not want to deplete the rotation depth much further.

Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments

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The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ’pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.

In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.

Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.

Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.

As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.

Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.

The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.

The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.

The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.

Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.

In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).

Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.

If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.

Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.

In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.

Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.

The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.

Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024  season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.

Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.

Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.

Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.

Phillies Notes: Hicks, Pitching Depth, Kilambi

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Before Jordan Hicks signed with the Giants last week, the right-hander and the Phillies shared some “mutual interest,” according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb.  The extent of the talks between the two sides isn’t known, or if the Phils offered Hicks anything in the ballpark of the four years and $44MM he received from San Francisco.  However, Gelb notes that “the Phillies viewed Hicks as a reliever,” which might have been a difference-maker since the Giants plan to give Hicks a chance to stick as a starting pitcher.

The hard-throwing Hicks might have stepped right into the closer’s job in Philly, or at least joined Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto and Jeff Hoffman in the late-game mix now that Craig Kimbrel has left for the Orioles in free agency.  It isn’t a secret that Philadelphia has been looking for bullpen help, and while president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has stated that further offseason additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, the Phils’ pursuits of Hicks and (before he joined the Angels) Robert Stephenson indicate that the club is still prepared to make a significant financial outlay on a possible upgrade.

As much as the Phillies would like to more options to both the rotation and relief corps, however, they’re in something of a Catch-22 situation of having too much pitching depth to acquire more pitching depth.  Philadelphia’s starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez is set, and while the Phillies might want to add a more experienced depth arm in front of Dylan Covey or Nick Nelson, such available pitchers might seek out a team with a more clear-cut opportunity for innings.

“I’ve got a list of names and all that,” Dombrowski told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  “Once they get done with [holding out for] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, then they can start looking and say, ’Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there, so maybe that’s an opportunity to go to Triple-A and be in that spot.’ “

Lauber’s broader piece focuses on the Phillies’ efforts to keep their pitchers healthy, including some changes to the front office and organizational structure during Dombrowski’s three-plus years as PBO.  These changes included the hiring of Brian Kaplan as the Phils’ director of pitching in 2022, some new hires on the strength and conditioning staff, and a more streamlined training and communication process between players, coaches, and trainers at both the Major League and minor league levels.

The results were apparent last season, as the Phillies enjoyed an unusual amount of both quality and good health from their rotation.  Philadelphia starters ranked first in baseball in fWAR (17.7) and third (899) in innings thrown by starting pitchers, despite something of a revolving door with the fifth starter position before Sanchez stabilized things.  Of course, durability is no guarantee from one season to the next, so the Phillies want to be prepared in the likely event that the rotation simply won’t be as healthy as it was in 2023.

There is also an analytical element to the Phillies’ success in both keeping pitchers on the mound and in helping them achieve new levels of success, and this is the department of assistant GM Ani Kilambi.  The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey recently profiled the 29-year-old Kilambi, who was hired just over two years ago out of the Rays’ front office to bolster and modernize the Phillies’ rather understaffed research and development team.

“[Kilambi has] done a fantastic job of providing resources to understand how we get the most out of our players,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said.  “It could be pitch usage, it could be biomechanics, it could be how they think.  It’s about giving us, as coaches, more tools to make a connection with a pitcher.”

Kennedy: Red Sox Not Likely To Match Last Year’s Payroll

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Red Sox brass convened with fans and media at their annual Winter Weekend festivities. CEO Sam Kennedy chatted with reporters shortly before the event this evening.

Most notably, Kennedy said the club’s 2024 payroll “probably will be lower than it was in 2023” (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). While he indicated that wasn’t a guarantee, it’s the latest signal from Boston officials that they’re not anticipating another major strike this offseason. Chairman Tom Werner hinted similarly earlier in the week when he backtracked on his early-offseason proclamation the team would go “full throttle” this winter.

From a raw payroll perspective, Boston’s projected salary isn’t far off last year’s Opening Day mark. Roster Resource projects the club’s player spending around $178MM. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox started last year with a payroll narrowly above $181MM. However, there’s a notable gap between the team’s luxury tax numbers. Roster Resource forecasts the Sox for a CBT figure in the $198MM range this year; Cot’s had their tax number approaching $226MM a season ago.

That’s not a huge distinction, as both are below the base threshold. This year’s CBT markers begin at $237MM. Boston isn’t close to that mark and it doesn’t appear they’re particularly interested in approaching it, at least during the winter. The competitive balance tax number is finalized at year’s end, so in-season acquisitions count against it (albeit on prorated salaries at that point).

Boston narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2022. That backfired, as they finished in last place in the AL East. The actual tax payment (roughly $1.2MM) was minimal, but staying above the threshold reduced their draft compensation for the losses of Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi in free agency. The Sox dipped below the line last year en route to another 78-84 finish and a second straight last place standing.

That disappointing run led ownership to dismiss Chaim Bloom. They tabbed Craig Breslow to lead baseball operations. The first-year chief baseball officer has played things cautiously thus far. Their only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5MM rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Boston took on a $5.85MM arbitration salary in the Tyler O’Neill trade. They offloaded part of Chris Sale’s salary in the trade sending him to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, though the $10.5MM they saved in that deal would have been deferred for more than 15 years anyhow.

With Sale leaving town not long after Giolito signed, the Sox have the same number of starting pitchers they did at the start of the winter. Breslow admitted earlier this week they’ve found it a “challenge” to bring in rotation help but noted they were still evaluating free agent and trade possibilities.

Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that Jordan Hicks was one of those rotation targets. The hard-throwing righty came off the board last week on a four-year, $44MM pact to the Giants. While Hicks has worked mostly in relief as a big leaguer, San Francisco will give him a shot in the rotation. According to Bradford, the Sox would also have let Hicks battle for a starting spot had he gone to Boston.

MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Ben Cherington of the Pirates has repeatedly said that he would be active in the market for another starting pitcher and another outfielder. With Spring Training starting in about one month, has he given up on this quest? (25:35)
  • Why do general managers not come out and say reports are B.S.? Use the Jays as example. They are not interested in Blake Snell but their name gets thrown in for leverage. Should GMs step in and say this report is false? The endless number of sources is ridiculous and leads nowhere except larger pay days or trade hauls because of fake competition. (27:30)
  • I think most of the baseball world is getting really sick of the Dodgers and Yankees buying all the major names. It’s terrible for parity and makes for season after season of “wash, rinse, repeat” storylines. Is the league ever going to enact a salary cap? It’s done great things for the other three major sports leagues. What is the reason for the resistance to it? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants Sign Jordan Hicks

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The Giants announced that they have signed a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks. The righty will get a one-time signing bonus of $2MM, a $6MM salary in 2024, followed by a $12MM salary in the three subsequent years. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the deal and added that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks, who is represented by the Ballengee Group, can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.

A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.

Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4%  clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.

Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.

As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.

Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.

Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.

An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.

For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.

Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.

It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.

As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

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Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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