Jonathan Singleton

Contextualizing The Jon Singleton Extension

By Jeff Todd | June 17, 2014 at 1:19am CDT

Eyebrows were raised recently when the Astros agreed to an extension with first base prospect Jon Singleton that was reported simultaneously with his first promotion to the big leagues. Extensions have broken new ground in different ways of late, and this deal represented a heretofore unseen foray into long-term guarantees for young players who are completely untested at the MLB level. Let’s take a look …

Framing the Contract

The deal pays Singleton $1.5MM for this season and $2MM annually from 2015 to 2018. It also includes three club option years over 2019-2021, progressing as follows: $2.5MM ($500K buyout), $5MM ($250K buyout), $13MM ($250K buyout). Singleton is assured of earning $10MM for the next five years, would earn up to $30.5MM in base salary if the options are exercised, and could max out the deal with an additional $5MM in incentives.

Since Singleton had zero days of MLB service at the point the contract was agreed upon and was highly unlikely to reach Super Two status, the standard means of describing the contract would be as follows: it pays him an above-minimum MLB salary for his partial first season, guarantees his three pre-arbitration and first arb-eligible campaign, and gives the club options over his final two years of arbitration and first year of free agent eligibility.

But the notion that the deal gives the Astros control over Singleton through to his first free agent year is heavily dependent on a key assumption — namely, that Singleton will stay in the big leagues over the life of the deal. In actuality, it is far from a certainty that Singleton’s play (and/or the team’s impossible-to-predict circumstances) will actually warrant his continued presence on the team’s active roster through to 2021.

Testing the Criticism

Of course, it remains obvious that Singleton has cut off a good chunk of the upside he might have realized through arbitration, and has potentially even delayed his entry to the free agent market by a season. That is the major complaint that has been logged against the deal. Defenders, meanwhile, have generally focused on Singleton’s off-field issues, noting that he may have had valid non-pecuniary motivations for signing.

It strikes me, however, that something basic is being overlooked here. Singleton — a $200K bonus signee out of high school — not only got his cash up front, but has completely avoided the downside scenario. And it is not as if the contract is completely without upside. At worst, Singleton is a bust who walks away with $10MM. At best, he is a top-rate big leaguer who earns over $35MM through his age-22 through age-29 seasons and hits the open market as an attractive commodity at the reasonably youthful age of 30. (That is, if he has not already agreed to a new extension in the meantime.)

Likewise, it has largely been overlooked that the contract is significantly front-loaded. Singleton will earn $7.5MM before reaching arbitration eligibility, which is much greater than he’d expect to bring in at the league minimum rate (this year, $500K). That certainly increases its value.

The real issue, I think, relates to that simple, timeless maxim of which Baseball Prospectus is fond of reminding us: prospects will break your heart. Singleton is every bit a prospect, as he entered the year facing questions about his maturity and ability to hit left-handed pitching. He rose to 27th on Baseball America’s top-100 list last year, only to slide to 82nd before this season. He is a first baseman who will need to hit — a lot — to keep his place in the big leagues.

His situation, in other words, is highly variable — perhaps more so than many have acknowledged. Some observers have touched on the implications of this fact. BP’s Zachary Levine tackled the Singleton extension from an economics perspective, applying marginal value concepts and game theory to the deal, explaining how Singleton’s individual value-maximization strategy may not have aligned with that of the collective (i.e., other union members). Likewise, looking at it from a labor perspective, the Economist recently noted that the Astros “acquired all of Mr. Singleton’s upside without taking on any of his downside risk.”

I am not sure I agree with the Economist’s notion that the team has not added downside; if anything, it has done just that, albeit at a manageable level ($10MM and a relatively firm commitment of a roster spot for some time.) To my thinking, the team agreed to take on some risk from Singleton in exchange for some of Singleton’s upside. He can still achieve significant earnings above his guarantee, and Houston could ultimately be enticed to pay more through the options than it would have through arbitration if Singleton has injury or performance questions but still carries enough promise that the team wishes to retain him.

But that still leaves unanswered whether, based on the reasonably possible outcomes that a player in Singleton’s situation might look forward to, the deal represents a fair exchange of risk and upside. To help answer this, I think it worthwhile to look at some actual, real-world scenarios that have played out in the recent past.Read more

Recent Contractual History of Top-100 Corner Infield Prospects

SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee recently looked at first-base prospects in the context of Singleton’s deal, but he was considering whether the players ultimately proved worth receiving a Singleton-type contract. I think it also useful to consider things from the player’s perspective, looking at actual, bottom-line earnings outcomes. Using the actual results for similarly-situated players as a guide, how does Singleton’s deal look by comparison?

Singleton is not a unique bird. By my count, between 2004 and 2009, the Baseball America top-100 prospect list featured no fewer than 58 players who were listed as corner infielders or ultimately ended up at first as big leaguers. I used those date cutoffs to keep salaries relatively recent and to avoid players who have yet to advance far enough for comparison; I included corner infielders to increase the sample because prospect positions are often ephemeral and many players move across the diamond. (Though I use numbers, I do not intend mathematical precision, nor do I think it would be terribly useful in this pursuit.)

To start, 44 of those players have advanced far enough in their careers that it is reasonable to assess whether or not they’d have been better served by accepting a Singleton-esque extension (not that they likely had the chance). By my count, 21 were pure busts — due to some combination of performance issues, injury, and/or lack of opportunity — who never sniffed arbitration, if they made it to the big leagues at all. In other words, roughly half of the players from this sample were essentially zeroed out in terms of earnings.

Brad Nelson, Jason Stokes, Andy Marte, Dallas McPherson, Brian Dopirak, Eric Duncan, Michael Aubrey, Josh Fields, Joel Guzman, Matt Moses, Justin Huber, Bill Rowell, Brandon Wood, Chris Marrero, Angel Villalona, Lars Anderson, Josh Vitters, Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, Brett Wallace

Next, we can look at the six players who did reach arbitration, but were ultimately non-tendered or otherwise disposed of before reaching free agency. I think it is fair to say that at least the last four — and perhaps the first two as well — would have been better served by going the route of Singleton.

Edwin Encarnacion: $7.6MM through two arb years; non-tendered and signed one-year, $2.5MM free agent contract with $3.5MM club option (ultimately exercised)
Casey Kotchman: $7.85MM through three arb years (incl. Super Two); elected free agency after outright and signed MiLB deal, then signed one-year, $3MM deal
Ian Stewart: $4.52MM through two arb years; non-tendered and signed one-year, $2MM free agent contract, then signed MiLB deal; entered age-29 season with 4.088 years of service
Daric Barton: $3.45MM through three arb years; outrighted multiple times; entered age-28 season with 4.030 years of service
Steve Pearce: $1.55MM through two arb years; outrighted multiple times; entered age-31 season with 4.116 years of service
Blake DeWitt: $1.1MM through one year; out of league at age 28

Of course, some players were able to go through arbitration and reach free agency while earning significant amounts of money. Even in these cases, however, it is not always clear that the player would not have been better off with a pre-MLB extension. While some of their ultimate earnings top Singleton’s $10MM guarantee, he could easily out-earn most of the below-listed players if he performs to or above their level, even accounting for salary inflation. (Salary information through player’s first free agent-eligible year.)

Prince Fielder: $33.5MM total arb earnings, then signed nine-figure free agent contract
Chase Headley: $24.9MM total arb earnings; expected to sign multi-year free agent contract
Adam LaRoche: $15.25MM total arb earnings, then signed one-year, $6MM free agent deal with mutual option (ultimately declined)
James Loney: $14.35MM total arb earnings, then signed one-year, $2MM free agent deal
Kendrys Morales: $12.2MM total arb earnings, then signed one-year, ~$7.4MM free agent deal (declined $14.1MM qualifying offer)
Conor Jackson: $9.35MM total arb earnings, then signed MiLB deal

Then there are the extension cases, eight of which came for players who had reached or were nearing arbitration eligibility. Most of these, naturally, turned out to be better for the player than a Singleton scenario — owing to the fact that these players were almost all outstanding major leaguers who warranted huge commitments.

Justin Morneau, David Wright, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto, and Freddie Freeman all agreed to extensions that best Singleton’s potential earnings in guaranteed money
Alex Gordon: $2.55MM through two years of arbitration, then signed four-year, $37.5MM extension with $12.5MM player option
Mark Teahen: $5.91MM through two years of arbitration, then signed three-year, $14MM extension

Finally, there were three pre-arb extensions. These, of course, are susceptible of more direct comparison to Singleton’s contract.

Adrian Gonzalez: signed four-year, $9.5MM extension with one club option ($5.5MM) after .862 OPS season; 1.108 years of service at time of signing
Evan Longoria: signed six-year, $17.5MM extension with three club options ($30MM total) after entering year as #2 overall prospect; .006 years of service at time of signing
Ryan Braun: signed eight-year, $45MM extension after 1.004 OPS season; .129 years of service at time of signing

Lessons From Recent Top Prospects

All three of the just-mentioned early extension recipients had significantly more bargaining power than did Singleton: Gonzalez and Braun already had full seasons of big league success under their respective belts (outright excellence, in the case of the latter), while Longoria was considered a truly elite talent and owned a much higher floor as a strong defensive third baseman. The dollar amounts obviously need to be inflated somewhat to compare with Singleton’s contract, though his deal was more front-loaded than those earlier extensions. On the whole, they do not seem out of line with what the young Astro received, given his less-impressive resume and non-existent MLB experience.

Consider: Gonzalez got very little upside in his deal despite already having significant service time under his belt, though he did not sacrifice any seasons of potential free agent eligibility. Longoria clearly got a bigger guarantee and higher earning ceiling, but he was a much surer thing and gave up an extra season of free agency. True, Braun got more money, all of it guaranteed, though he also sacrificed an additional year of control (remember, he signed one season into his career). But, then, he had also already led the league in slugging and hit 34 bombs as a rookie. Ultimately, of course, all three landed nine-figure extensions after providing their worth on the field.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams has noted (Twitter links), Singleton can still line himself up for a second extension if he performs to expectations — after potentially tripling his guarantee through the club options. And if he doesn’t, like the 21 players listed above who never made it, then at least he will have much more to show for his decades of hard work and development than they did.

In the aggregate, the examples given above show precisely why the deal makes much more sense for Singleton than it’s been given credit for. To my eyes, around 30 of the 44 players listed above would have been better off with a deal of the sort that Singleton reached. For many of those — namely, certain of the 21 busts — the deal might have made the difference in getting a real shot at the big leagues, to say nothing of earning the kind of money that they never saw at all (except, at least, for those who signed for big amateur bonuses).

Indeed, a handful of the remainder probably would have ended up approximately neutral, even after establishing themselves as regular big leaguers (this includes Gonzalez and Longoria along with guys like LaRoche, Loney, and Morales, each of whom signed short-term deals in their first seasons of free agent eligibility). Even some of those who landed significant extensions (e.g. Zimmerman, Gordon) had to give up additional free agent years to get a guarantee exceeding what Singleton can earn. And those players all took on immense performance and injury risk for several seasons before they got their first multi-million-dollar contracts.

Recent Top Prospects Still in Process

As mentioned above, there were 58 top-100 Baseball America prospects who were listed at the corner infield or ultimately ended up at first base between 2004-2009. Only 44 of those are covered above. What of the remaining 14?

While it is too early to assess with finality how these players fared as against a Singleton scenario — that is precisely why they were not included above — we can try to handicap things somewhat. Of course, the impossibility of predicting these things is demonstrated by the fact that many of the once-promising players listed above ultimately flamed out.

Several players appear to be on a trajectory such that they probably would not take a Singleton deal retroactively — though most still have a fair way to go: Chris Davis ($13.65MM; two arbitration years), Pedro Alvarez ($4.25MM; one year), Eric Hosmer ($3.6MM; one year; Super Two), and Brett Lawrie (yet to qualify for arb; 24 years old)
Others are too close to call: Justin Smoak ($2.64MM; one year); Matt Dominguez (yet to qualify for arb; 24 years old; reportedly declined five-year, $14.5MM extension offer)
Still others seem situated such that, if they could, they might well take such a deal with the benefit of hindsight: Kyle Blanks ($1.59MM through two years of arbitration); Logan Morrison ($1.75MM; one year), Chris Parmelee (yet to qualify for arb; 26 years old), Mike Moustakas (yet to qualify for arb; 25 years old), Yonder Alonso (yet to qualify for arb; 27 years old), Jesus Montero (yet to qualify for arb; 24 years old)

The point here is that these results largely mirror those discussed already. There are two other players from the group of 58 that I have yet to discuss, and I think they provide an interesting additional outcome cluster that must also be considered:

Todd Frazier: first made BA top 100 in age-23 season; yet to qualify for arb at 28 years old; 2.071 years of service entering 2014
Chris Carter: first made BA top 100 in age-22 season; yet to qualify for arb at 27 years old; 1.159 years of service entering 2014

Frazier and Carter are both likely to qualify for arbitration for the first time next season, the latter by way of Super Two. We don’t yet know what they will earn, but we do know that the earliest they can reach sufficient service time for free agency would be in advance of their age-32 seasons.

It is important to understand this other type of downside scenario. Frazier, in particular, has been an above-average MLB performer ever since he came up for good in his age-26 season, and could well have done so earlier had he been put on a more aggressive promotion timetable rather than waiting for the end of Scott Rolen’s career. While it surely would have been difficult for the Astros to withstand pressure to treat Singleton in a similar manner, it is conceivable that Singleton could have been held up at Triple-A. It is a counter-factual scenario now, but Houston was rumored to be in the market for a first baseman over the winter (Jose Abreu and Loney were both mentioned) and could conceivably have added another younger player by trade this year.

As things stand for Singleton, the fact that the team is now committed likely means that he will have every chance to stick on the big league roster. That not only means that he should have the opportunity to maximize the achievable value in his deal, but also that he will be more likely to accrue sufficient service time to reach the open market when he is first eligible. And that, in turn, would increase his leverage for a second extension, maximize his future open-market value, and reduce his risk going forward.

Market Effects

In the final analysis, the notion that Singleton agreed to a “team-friendly” deal, or simply sold out in a situation of poor leverage, seems driven (as Levine suggests) by concern that deals of this nature prevent top-level salary growth. But the strategies pursued by Singleton and the Astros are not binding on other actors any more than were those of Gonzalez and the Padres or Longoria and the Rays.

It is worth emphasizing, too, that there are other recent developments that set down new guideposts for the overall player market. Freeman signed a massive deal with the Braves that seemed to portend enhanced leverage for established, high-end, early-career extension candidates. Miguel Cabrera inked a record-setting later-career extension with the Tigers two years in advance of free agency. And Fielder earned gobs of money through arbitration before inking a $214MM deal with Detroit, showing that the classic model of player wealth accumulation still holds force.

If anything, perhaps, the Singleton extension really marks the latest instance of a general trend away from formulaic contractual models. His deal opens new doors, especially, for players who did not have the opportunity to capture downside protection at their point of entry into the professional ranks, at which time they immediately become subject to the limitations of the reserve clause (as expressed in the collectively bargained Basic Agreement). There are potentially other, yet more creative options as well, such as private insurance (assuming it could be had by a prospect at a reasonable rate) or even public investment. But all players and teams will not pursue such a path; indeed, several of Singleton’s teammates (and others) have declined the opportunity, while some (if not most) clubs will remain largely uninterested in making such early commitments.

History teaches us that, even at his relatively exalted place in the eyes of the game as a top-100 prospect, Singleton was not assured of cashing in on his talent until he decided to forego the chance of becoming the next Fielder. That he chose to do so should have relatively minimal impact on those other players who have the means and desire to bear the inherent risk of transitioning from top prospect to established major league player.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Gonzalez, Chacin, Singleton, Cards, Span

By Steve Adams | June 3, 2014 at 1:28pm CDT

In his latest Notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opines that the Rockies shouldn’t be buyers at this summer’s trade deadline. While the club could make a Wild Card run, he writes that the team isn’t a serious World Series contender. Rosenthal feels that the club should look to move Jhoulys Chacin — who could be a non-tender candidate this offseason — to clear room for one of its top pitching prospects (likely either Jon Gray or Eddie Butler). The bigger, and certainly bolder move posited by Rosenthal is to deal Carlos Gonzalez in order to clear room for everyday at-bats for Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon. With Kyle Parker and a number of other outfield prospects on the horizon, plus Brandon Barnes and Drew Stubbs as reserve options, the team has plenty of outfield depth. Gonzalez is also owed $53MM following this season. Rosenthal notes that ownership has never shown an inclination to move Gonzalez, however, so the Rockies likely don’t share his point of view on the future of their star outfielder.

Astros Extend Jon Singleton

By Mark Polishuk | June 3, 2014 at 9:56am CDT

TUESDAY: Passan has the year-to-year breakdown of Singleton’s contract (Twitter link). He will earn $1.5MM this season and $2MM per year from 2015-18. He notes that each of the second options have a $250K buyout as well.

MONDAY, 6:19pm: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter) that Singleton’s options are worth $2.5MM, $5MM and $13MM. Singleton would earn $17MM for his pre-arbitration and arb years, with the $13MM option being for his first year of free agency.

5:30pm: The future of the Houston Astros is getting brighter and brighter, and the latest ray of light will make his Major League debut tomorrow. The Astros announced today that they have not only promoted top prospect Jon Singleton, but also inked him to a historic five-year contract extension with three club options despite the fact that he’s never played a Major League inning. The Sosnick/Cobbe Sports client reportedly receives a $10MM guarantee, and his contract can max out at $35MM if all of the options are exercised and he reaches various performance bonuses.

Singleton will reportedly earn $9.5MM in salary over the five guaranteed years, plus a $500K buyout if the Astros decline their first option. The total value of all three option years is $20MM, with an extra $5MM available in bonuses and awards.

The extension sets a new precedent for players who don’t have any Major League service time. Singleton was already under team control through at least the 2020 season, though now the Astros have cost certainty over the slugging first baseman through all of his pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible seasons, not to mention his first free agent season should Houston use all of its team options. The 22-year-old Singleton is now locked up through his age-29 season.

The Astros aggressively pursued extensions with several of their young players over the last few months, pursuing deals with George Springer, Robbie Grossman and Matt Dominguez that would’ve covered all most or all of their arb and pre-arb years and given the team more options years, to boot. Springer’s proposed extension would have also locked him up prior to his ever playing a day in the bigs, the same as Singleton’s contract.

Originally an eighth-round pick of the Phillies in the 2009 draft, Singleton came to the Houston organization as part of the trade package for Hunter Pence in 2011. The left-handed hitting first baseman has been on a tear at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season (hitting .267/.397/.544 and hitting 14 homers over 239 plate appearances), rebounding from a tough 2013 campaign that saw him struggle at Triple-A and serve a 50-game suspension for marijuana use.

Despite his issues last season, Singleton was still ranked among the game’s top prospects in preseason rankings by MLB.com (42nd overall), ESPN’s Keith Law (78th) and Baseball America (82nd). The 2014 Baseball America Prospect Handbook ranked Singleton as the seventh-best prospect in Houston’s system and described him as having “middle-of-the-order potential” and “plus raw power,” whle also praising his bat speed and ability to draw walks. The BA Handbook questioned his consistency against left-handed pitching, though Singleton showed improvement by posting a .919 OPS in 77 PA against southpaws this season at Triple-A.

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan was the first to report the agreement, while ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported some of the specific terms (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports

Astros To Promote Jon Singleton

By Mark Polishuk | June 2, 2014 at 11:59am CDT

The Astros have told slugging first baseman Jon Singleton that he will be promoted to the Major Leagues for tomorrow’s game, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports (via Twitter). MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo tweeted earlier today that “all indications” were that Singleton would be promoted as early as this week.

Singleton, universally ranked as a Top 100 prospect, has enjoyed a monster season thus far for Triple-A Oklahoma City, hitting .267/.397/.544 with 14 homers through his first 54 games. While service time considerations are often a factor in the timing of promotions — and likely were part of the reason that Singleton remained in Triple-A as long as he did — the Astros won’t be fretting over the amount of team control or the price to retain him through his arbitration years; Houston has reportedly agreed to a five-year, $10MM extension with Singleton that contains three club options, allowing the deal top out at $35MM.

Houston originally acquired Singleton along with Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later (Domingo Santana) in exchange for Hunter Pence back in 2011.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Scherzer, Dickey, Yankees, Krauss

By charliewilmoth | May 25, 2014 at 10:26pm CDT

In July 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn each pitched all 16 innings of an extra-inning game between the Giants and Braves. They combined to throw over 400 pitches. David Laurila of Fangraphs uses that game to begin discussions of pitch counts with today’s players. “It’s amazing what they did,” says Tigers star Max Scherzer. “Many guys in the past were able to consistently throw 150-160, and they did it in four-man rotations. That seems preposterous in today’s game.” Nonetheless, Scherzer does think that he could condition himself to throw 200 pitches per game, although he admits he would have to throw with less exertion than he does now. R.A. Dickey of the Blue Jays says he could throw 200 pitches in a game “fairly easily,” although that’s because he relies on the knuckleball. Dickey adds that he threw 183 pitches in a game for the University of Tennessee in his pre-knuckleball days. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

Relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren have both pitched brilliantly this season, and they’re both cost-controlled — Betances won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2016 season, and Warren won’t be eligible until after 2015. But Daniel Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal asks if the Yankees might be able to get even more value out of the pair by using them as starters. Both have started at the Triple-A level, and the Yankees could certainly use more reliable starting pitching. The problem is that the bullpen has helped both pitchers dominate — relieving allowed Betances to simplify his approach, and Warren to throw harder. The Yankees seem to feel that Warren might still be a candidate to start at some point, though Betances won’t be.
Astros first baseman Marc Krauss is trying not to worry about the impending arrival of top prospect Jonathan Singleton, writes the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich. “You try not to think about it,” says Krauss. “He’s going to get his turn. I just try to go out and play as hard as I can and hopefully impress the team so that I can find a role when he does come up. … There’s always other teams out there considering, if I’m playing well enough, I can help it out.” Singleton, who’s hitting .270/.393/.540 for Triple-A Oklahoma City, is a likely candidate for promotion sometime this summer. Krauss, who is sharing first base with Jesus Guzman, has hit just .177/.282/.302 in 110 plate appearances so far this season.

West Notes: Scutaro, Singleton, Martinez

By charliewilmoth | April 20, 2014 at 7:00pm CDT

Due to his back injury, Marco Scutaro still isn't playing in extended spring training games, but it's unlikely the Giants will make a trade to replace him anytime soon, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. This week's Ike Davis trade aside, deals involving valuable players generally aren't made in April, and the Giants would likely have to pay heavily to acquire a talented infielder. Later this summer, the Giants still might not make second base their top priority, Schulman suggests — they may instead focus on their bench. Here are more notes from the West divisions.

The Astros are excited about first baseman Jonathan Singleton's performance at Triple-A Oklahoma City, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. The Astros recently promoted top prospect George Springer, and Singleton, who is hitting .343/.449/.776 so far, might not be far behind. "When we sent him down at Spring Training, we told him he was going to let us know when he was ready to come up here by his performance, and so far he's doing an outstanding job," says assistant GM David Stearns. "We'd like to give him more time to continue to work on the aspects of his game that we identified with him that needed some improvement. So far he's addressing them."
Former Astros outfielder J.D. Martinez is making a strong case to make it back to the big leagues with the Tigers, MLive.com's James Schmehl writes. Martinez is hitting .308/.366/.846 with a remarkable ten home runs in 71 plate appearances for Triple-A Toledo, and the Tigers are currently playing with only three bench players. The Astros somewhat surprisingly released Martinez last month, even though he wasn't on their 40-man roster at the time and was a 26-year-old with 975 plate appearances of big-league experience. Martinez's salary at Triple-A was apparently a factor in the Astros not being able to find another organization for him.

Astros Claim Raul Valdes, Decline Humber’s Option

By Steve Adams | October 2, 2013 at 5:07pm CDT

The Astros have issued a press release announcing that they have claimed left-hander Raul Valdes off waivers from the Phillies and declined their 2014 club option for right-hander Philip Humber. Humber is one of four players that has been outrighted off the team's 40-man roster; the others are infielder Brandon Laird and catchers Cody Clark and Matt Pagnozzi. Perhaps more noteworthy is the fact that top prospect Jonathan Singleton has been added to the team's 40-man roster to fill one of the new vacancies.

Valdes, 35, posted an alarming 7.46 ERA in 35 innings for the Phillies this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest that he was far better than that unsightly number. Valdes averaged 9.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings, leading advanced metrics like FIP (4.39), xFIP (3.74) and SIERA (3.10) to project better days on the horizon. He also held opposing lefties to a .229/.275/.375 line.

Houston held a $3MM option on Humber, but declining it proved to be an easy decision. The former No. 3 overall pick turned in a 7.90 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings for the Astros this season after signing for just $800K last offseason. Humber was designated for assignment in May and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where posted a 4.68 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

Laird hit .169/.224/.423 with five homers in 76 plate appearances for the Astros in 2013. Pagnozzi, who was acquired from the Braves at the beginning of September, went 3-for-21 in 22 plate appearances for the Astros in the season's final month. The 32-year-old Clark, a career minor leaguer, reached the Majors at last in 2013 and recorded his first big league hit with the Astros. Clark went 4-for-38 with Houston and hit .212/.250/.265 in 46 minor league contests this season.

Prospect Rumor Roundup: Future Promotions

By Marc Hulet | June 20, 2013 at 9:23am CDT

If you're a moderate to hardcore baseball fan, you've probably heard of the term "Super Two" when top prospects and their imminent big league promotions are being discussed. Basically, it's an important business aspect of baseball that can cause your favorite MLB-ready prospect to spend a little extra time in the minors. For a refresher on the subject, check out Tim Dierkes' article from April and Ben Nicholson-Smith's post from February.

Now that you're up to date and understand why some players have been recently called up to the Majors, it's time to identify the next big-named prospects who could be promoted in 2013, following in the footsteps of the Rays' Wil Myers, the Mets' Zack Wheeler, and the Mariners' Mike Zunino.

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bogaerts, 20, didn't let his age stop him from dominating Double-A ball. One of the youngest players in the Eastern League, the shortstop hit more than .300 with strong on-base skills and power. The Aruba native earned himself a trip to Triple-A after less than half a season. A strong start to 2013 earned fellow shortstop prospect (and potential roadblock) Jose Iglesias a 25-man roster spot as the backup to oft-injured veteran Stephen Drew, but Bogaerts has a much higher ceiling. Iglesias is much more likely to end up as trade bait thanks to his high-level play — should Boston need to shore up its roster for a run at the playoffs. Drew is a free agent at the end of the year, and the Red Sox may want to give Bogaerts a chance to get his feet wet in the Majors by the end of the year to gauge if he's truly ready to assume the full-time gig in 2014.

Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, Tigers: Castellanos had a modest start to the 2013 season, but he's seen his offensive numbers improve each month with his OPS rising from .755 to .814 to 1.025. Also working in his favor for a call-up is the fact that he can offer competent defensive assistance at both third base and in the corner outfield. Miguel Cabrera isn't going to be bumped from his starting gig at the hot corner, but the emergence of Castellanos could allow the club to rest the veteran in the second half of the year in preparation for long playoff run. The prospect could also be a solid platoon complement to left fielder Andy Dirks, a left-handed hitter. It would also give Avisail Garcia — another rookie outfielder — a chance to spend more time in Triple-A. Lynn Henning of the Detroit News wrote that Castellanos could be a key player for the big league club as it tries to secure a playoff spot in 2013.

Sonny Gray, RHP, Athletics: Aside from Bartolo Colon, injuries have ensured that Oakland's starting rotation lacks pitchers with more than two years of service time. Due to the volatility of young pitchers, depth could become an issue for the first-place club in the second half of the year. Gray, a former first round draft pick, could offer some help after rebounding well from a disappointing 2012 season. The right-hander has averaged more than six innings per start in his 13 Triple-A appearances and struck out 83 batters in 82 1/3 innings of work.

Erik Johnson, RHP, White Sox: Chicago is currently deploying an inexperienced starting rotation with the likes of Hector Santiago, Jose Quintana, and Dylan Axelrod. Johnson, a former second round draft pick, has dominated pro ball and his time at Double-A in 2013 has been no different. He currently has a 2.24 ERA with 74 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 84 2/3 innings of work. Johnson, 23, has a frame that suggests he should develop into an innings-eater and his pitching acumen could eventually help him develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter for the Sox. The California native could offer some assistance to the big league club in the second half of the season, and he has the highest ceiling of any starter in the Sox system at either Double-A or Triple-A. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune recently penned an article after speaking with Johnson, who said he's just taking it one day at a time and not worrying about a promotion to The Show.

Danny Salazar, RHP, Indians: After spending big in the offseason, Cleveland finds itself in a playoff hunt. With a big league starting rotation that features some rather large question marks with the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, and Carlos Carrasco, Salazar could become a key player at some point during the second half of the season. While splitting the season between Double-A and Triple-A, the Dominican right-hander has struck out 80 batters in 58 innings of work. If he doesn't figure into the club's plans in the starting rotation, his power arsenal and ability to pitch multiple innings could allow him to offer some assistance in the bullpen in the latter half of the year and even the playoffs. In a piece for MLB.com, John Wagner spoke to Salazar's Triple-A manager, Chris Tremie, who talked about the things that the young pitcher does well.

Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF, Astros: Singleton's season got off to an inauspicious start when he was suspended for 50 games after violating minor league baseball's drug policy. Since returning, the 21-year-old hitter has appeared in just 10 games, split between Single-A, Double-A and now Triple-A. Thirteen of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases, and he's walked 13 times. Singleton has experience playing both left field and first base but has exclusively played the infield in 2013. Despite that, his clearest opening for big league playing time could be in the outfield where Trevor Crowe, J.D. Martinez, and (recently demoted) Jimmy Paredes have produced less-than-impressive numbers. First basemen/designated hitters Chris Carter and Carlos Pena have also had underwhelming seasons to date (and could become trade bait) but offer much-needed power. The playoffs are out of the question for 2013, but once outfield prospect George Springer joins Singleton in Houston, the club will have a strong middle-of-the-order core to build around.

Yordano Ventura, RHP, Royals: Talented but undersized pitching prospects are slowly shedding the stigma that they're destined for future bullpen work at the big league level. Like Toronto's Marcus Stroman, the slender Ventura doesn't break the six-foot mark, but his upper-90s velocity — which tickles triple digits — has intrigued prospect watchers since he came over to North America from the Dominican Republic in 2010. After opening 2013 in Double-A, a recent promotion has brought Ventura one step away from the Majors. Should injuries strike — or should the Royals tire of the inconsistent performances from Luis Mendoza or Wade Davis — the 22-year-old Dominican could receive the call. Jeffrey Flanagan of Fox Sports Kansas City recently spoke to Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo who said the organization is looking to have Ventura become more efficient and keep his pitch counts down.

Transaction Retrospection: The First Hunter Pence Trade

By Steve Adams | April 8, 2013 at 10:43pm CDT

The Astros entered 2013 with a shockingly low payroll by today's standards thanks to a number of offseason trades that were intended to boost their farm system. It's nothing new for Houston — a team that hasn't finished above .500 since the 2008 season. General manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff have done a terrific job of amassing young talent to build promise for the future, but the first step may have been taken by Luhnow's predecessor — Ed Wade.

In July 2011, the last-place Astros had a number of desireable pieces on their roster, but perhaps none more appealing than Hunter Pence. The 28-year-old right fielder was hitting .308/.356/.471 with 11 homers when the Astros traded him to the Phillies (along with $2MM) for a package of four prospects: first baseman Jonathan Singleton (19 years old at the time), right-hander Jarred Cosart (21), right-hander Josh Zeid (24) and right fielder Domingo Santana (18).

Let's look at all of the players involved…

The Major League Side

Hunter Pence: The Phillies acquired a year-and-a-half of Pence's service in the deal. He slid into the Phillies' lineup and immediately provided a boost. Pence had homered 11 times in 100 games for the Astros but matched that total in just 54 games for the Phils. He closed out the season on a torrid pace, hitting .324/.394/.560 in 236 trips to the plate as the Phillies marched to a 102-win season and a first-place finish. Pence's second season with the Phillies didn't go as well; his Musial-esque 159 OPS+ dropped to 108, and he was eventually traded to the Giants for a package of players highlighted by catcher Tommy Joseph (that trade could be a whole new post). All told, the Phillies parted with four prospects and were rewarded with 676 plate appearances worth of .289/.357/.486 production and average right field defense. Fangraphs pegs Pence's value in Phildelphia at 3.6 wins above replacement.

The Minor League Side

Jonathan Singleton: Singleton has emerged as the best prospect in this deal (Cosart, at the time, was regarded slightly higher). Baseball America ranked him as the game's 39th-best prospect prior to 2011, and he now occupies the No. 27 spot on that list. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo agrees with that ranking and places him first among Astros prospects. BA calls Singleton "the best first base prospect in baseball," noting his plus raw power and ability to hit to all fields. Mayo agrees that he's the best first base prospect in the game, and both think that Singleton could be in the Majors as soon as this season. He hit .284/.396/.497 with 21 homers as a 20-year-old at Double-A last season. Houston fans will have to wait, however, as Singleton is serving a 50-game suspension after testing positive for marijuana.
Jarred Cosart: Cosart's stock has fallen after a 2012 season that was slowed by recurring blisters on his pitching hand. He still posted a solid 3.30 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 114 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He's fallen out of BA's Top 100 and ranks as Houston's No. 7 prospect in their eyes, but Mayo is more of a believer; he ranks Cosart No. 89 in the game and No. 4 in the Astros' system. Both feel that Cosart's stock would soar if he could improve his command of a plus curveball with 11-to-5 break, as it would complement what BA refers to an "electric" fastball that sits 96-97 mph. Some feel that Cosart could end up as a closer, but control of his curveball could have him sitting atop Houston's rotation in the near future.
Domingo Santana: Santana, the youngest player in the trade, was included as a PTBNL and viewed a high-risk prospect. He's emerged as the team's No. 11 prospect per BA and No. 13 prospect per Mayo. BA writes that he has significant raw power and an advanced opposite-field approach to pair with enough athleticism to develop into a regular right fielder if things break right. Mayo concurs with that analysis and notes that he has "an outstanding arm that fits perfectly in right field, along with his offensive profile."
Josh Zeid: Zeid doesn't rank among the Top 30 prospects in Houston's system per BA or the Top 20 per Mayo, but he ranked as Philadelphia's 23rd prospect at the time of the trade. BA credited Zeid with the best slider in Philly's farm system following the 2010 season, noting that his fastball can reach 97 mph when he's serving in a relief role. That's exactly what he's done since coming to Houston, but he posted an ugly 5.59 ERA in 56 1/3 innings at Double-A last season. However, his 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and strong 3.52 FIP suggest that there are better times ahead for the 26-year-old. He's pitching at Triple-A Oklahoma City to open this season.

The Phillies gave up quite a bit of talent in order to land Pence, and the Astros are clearly better off for it. Twenty percent of the players in Houston's Top 15 prospects were acquired via this trade, and while there are question marks surrounding some of them, Singleton's future looks more certain. Philadelphia, meanwhile, received a boost to their lineup that helped cement a division championship. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was able to flip Pence one year later to recoup some of the prospect value that he gave up in order to land Pence.

The Phillies got precisely what they were hoping for in Pence, but the Astros appear to be better positioned for the long-haul as a result. Scenarios like this are often the case when dealing prospects for short-term help at the Major League level. Had the Phillies won a World Series title in 2011, there wouldn't be much second-guessing the trade. As it stands, Houston picked up enough future upside that they could eventually make Philadelphia fans regret the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hunter Pence Trade Reactions And Fallout

By Zachary Links | July 30, 2011 at 12:38am CDT

The Phillies love to make a big splash at the trade deadline and they continued the trend this year by acquiring Hunter Pence from the Astros for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, and a player to be named later. Let's take a look at some reactions to the deal from around the baseball world:

Up until late yesterday, the Astros were looking to get even more out of the Phillies, tweets Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. Houston insisted that the Phillies had to include two more of their top ten prospects, including 2010 first-round pick Jesse Biddle.
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will continue to listen to other teams up until the trade deadline on Sunday, but he's likely done trading after landing Pence, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Astros GM Ed Wade was still talking to other teams until ten minutes before he made the deal with the Phillies, tweets Bob Brookover of Philadelphia Inquirer.
Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) believes that the Astros took a considerable risk in dealing Pence. While they received a ton of potential long-term value, the major prospects coming over in the trade are high-risk, high-reward prospects.
Wade's decision to trade Pence certainly isn't a popular one but it is the right move for the organization, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.
Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle writes that it could take two years or longer to fairly judge the return that the Astros got for Pence.
Phillies officials have questioned Cosart's maturity in the past, according to John Manuel and Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Furthermore, the right-hander's command issues led others in the organization to believe he was destined wind up in the bullpen. However, Cosart had the best pure arm in the Phillies' system.

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