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Jonathan Lucroy

Heyman’s Latest: Arrieta, Lucroy, Tigers, Puig, Gordon, K-Rod, Acuna

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The Cubs were known to have made “one last call” to Jake Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras before signing Yu Darvish, and FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman provided some new details on that exchange.  Theo Epstein proposed a “theoretical” offer of six years and $120MM to Arrieta if, and only if, things did not work out with Darvish.  Epstein reportedly didn’t seriously think Arrieta’s camp would take the offer, and the executive was “just making the call to show respect” to a player who was such a major factor in Chicago’s recent success.  Even if Darvish had turned the Cubs down, it still doesn’t seem as if Arrieta and the team would’ve been able to come to an agreement, as Arrieta simply wanted a larger average annual value than Chicago was willing to offer (due to their desire to stay under the luxury tax threshold).  The Cubbies also are said to have put $48MM over four years on the table for Alex Cobb earlier in the winter before putting pen to paper with Darvish, and Heyman speculates that the Cubs might have eventually become interested in Alex Cobb had they missed out on both Darvish and Arrieta.

Here are a few items from Heyman, in his latest notes column…

  • The Nationals could potentially be contenders to sign Jonathan Lucroy next offseason.  Matt Wieters is in his last year under contract, and Washington had some interest in Lucroy this winter despite Wieters still being on the hook for $10.5MM this season.  Of course, quite a bit could happen to affect this interest between now and next winter, particularly since Lucroy is looking to rebound with the Athletics after a very inconsistent 2017 season.  If Lucroy does bounce back and the A’s are out of contention this year, I would think it possible that the Nats could even target Lucroy at the trade deadline.
  • In some Tigers agency news, righty Franklin Perez is joining Beverly Hills Sports Council while infielder Dixon Machado is now with Octagon. You can track the latest representation information with MLBTR’s agency database.
  • Speaking of agents, Yasiel Puig has been in talks with “several agencies” about representation since the Wasserman agency cut ties with the Dodgers outfielder in February.  Puig has also been considering having one of his current financial advisors represent him, though the MLBPA has “strongly advised” Puig to work with an established agency.
  • “It was very much a split decision” within the Royals front office to re-sign Alex Gordon to a four-year, $72MM deal in the 2015-16 offseason.  Gordon’s return to Kansas City was seen as something of a surprise at the time, though he had a strong personal desire to return to the team and the Royals were willing to spend extra to retain a key member of their World Series-winning team.  Gordon was entering his age-32 season at the time, however, and some in the organization felt “he had had worn down by that point” and wasn’t a good investment.  These concerns seem to have been well-founded, as Gordon has hit just .213/.300/.343 over 1071 PA through two-plus years of that contract.
  • Reliever Francisco Rodriguez is determined to continue pitching at age 36, even if it means going to an indy ball club.  He was released by the Phillies last month after spending most of the spring with the organization on a minor league deal, and K-Rod posted a 5.40 ERA over 6 2/3 Grapefruit League innings.
  • Shortstop Luisangel Acuna, the younger brother of star Braves prospect Ronald Acuna, will be a sought-after name in the next July 2 international signing period, Heyman writes in a separate piece.  The Rangers are one of multiple teams interested in the younger Acuna, who could receive a bonus as high as $500K.  This estimated price tag will keep the Braves out of the running, as they are limited to spending no more than $300K on any single international prospect for the next July 2 period.  MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes that some scouts feel Acuna will eventually have to move to second base, and he “has shown some power and has the potential to be an average-or-better hitter with proper instruction, but he’ll have to grow” beyond his current 5’9″, 160-pound frame.

Athletics Sign Jonathan Lucroy

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MONDAY: The A’s have announced the signing.

SATURDAY: Lucroy’s one-year deal with the A’s will guarantee him $6.5MM, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Slusser also adds that the deal does not come with any incentives.

FRIDAY: The Athletics have agreed to sign catcher Jonathan Lucroy, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for the Excel client, according to the report.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Lucroy would command a two-year, $24MM commitment. We cited the A’s as a possible suitor, but at the time it seemed likelier that the 31-year-old would choose a team more clearly positioned to contend, given his own comments on the subject.

As was the case for others, of course, the free-agent market did not really develop as expected for the veteran backstop. The Rockies — who employed Lucroy for the second half of the 2017 season — had interest but pivoted to Chris Iannetta, who ended up being one of three catchers (joining Welington Castillo and Alex Avila) to secure two-year commitments.

Lucroy’s free-agent experience was long expected to be much more rewarding. When the 2016 season drew to a close, after all, he stood as one of the best all-around receivers in the game, having just wrapped up a five-year run of .291/.353/.465 hitting during which he was also reputed to be among the game’s best defensive catchers.

The 2017 season, though, did not go well at all. Lucroy got off to a disastrous start at the plate with the Rangers before a mid-season trade to the Rockies. While he rebounded with a robust .429 on-base percentage (with 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts) down the stretch, Lucroy’s power never returned and he finished with a .265/.345/.371 slash line and six home runs over 481 plate appearances on the year.

Optimists will point to the still-impeccable zone control and long history of productivity. Pessimists can handily cite the fact that Lucroy delivered little hard contact, lots of grounders, and a career-low full-season dinger tally in a 2017 season marked by a leaguewide offensive surge.

Defensive questions also arose. While the Rockies credited Lucroy’s work at managing the pitching staff, suggesting he retains his good reputation in that hard-to-quantify realm, there was surprising slippage in the framing department. Once lauded as the master of winning strikes for his pitchers, Lucroy graded miserably in that key metric in 2017.

Of course, we at MLBTR were still somewhat bullish on Lucroy’s market situation despite those areas of concern. Indeed, I argued for more than our collective prediction, writing in early October that he could command a three-year commitment with an annual salary of $10MM or more. In a market full of surprises, Lucroy’s shortfall is among the most eye-opening. While he surely could have commanded a larger payday had he signed earlier in the winter, with timing playing a role in the ultimate contract, it remains notable that such an accomplished player was forced to settle for such a commitment.

[RELATED: Updated Athletics Depth Chart]

For Oakland, it’s an eminently sensible risk to take. The club had said it expected to utilize Bruce Maxwell as the primary option, but he had a tough season at the plate in 2017 as well as a troubling offseason run-in with the law. While he undoubtedly remains part of the future plans, it could be that he’ll open the year in the minors with Josh Phegley supplementing Lucroy at the MLB level.

Even with Lucroy aboard, it’s tough to pick the A’s as a favorite in the AL West that’s led by an outstanding Astros club and is competitive from top top bottom. But if he can coax breakout performances from a youthful pitching staff, if not also rebound with the bat, then perhaps there could yet be a surprise in store.

Lee and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously reported a deal was close.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: $6.5MM Contracts

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As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.

That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.

The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.

Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.

Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Lucroy:
Steamer: .273/.347/.427, 11.8 Defense Rating, 2.9 fWAR
ZiPS: .298/.365/.449, 3.6 Defense Rating, 1.7 fWAR

Moustakas:
Steamer: .268/.328/.494, 2.1 Defense Rating, 2.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .267/.318/.485, 1.5 Defense Rating, 1.5 fWAR

Morrison:
Steamer: .249/.340/.461, -11.6 Defense Rating, 0.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .255/.345/.477, -10.8 Defense Rating, 1.9 fWAR

Who do you think will provide the most value on his $6.5MM contract? Here’s a poll link for app users.

Quick Hits: Early FA Offers, Padres, Labor Relations

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Let’s round out the day’s coverage with a few interesting notes from around the game:

  • Three prominent players have reportedly agreed to terms in recent days, all settling for much less in dollars and years than had been expected. Reports also suggest that those players could have had greater earnings had they taken offers available previously. Though agent Scott Boras says Mike Moustakas never received a multi-year contract offer before returning to the Royals, two sources tell Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star that the Angels dangled a three-year pact in the range of $45MM. Meanwhile, the Rockies are said to have offered slugger Carlos Gonzalez an extension in the realm of three years and $45MM this time last year, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. And the Rox also were willing to go to three years, at a $21MM guarantee, to catcher Jonathan Lucroy earlier this winter, Nightengale adds on Twitter. (Lucroy is reportedly in agreement on a one-year deal with the Athletics, though terms are not yet known and the deal is not finalized.) Of course, in each case it’s easy to understand why the player in question might have elected against jumping at the reported opportunity at the point at which it was presented.
  • In other news that’s largely of historical interest, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provided some notes on the Padres’ offseason efforts. The team was able to land Eric Hosmer after Kansas City was unable to earn ownership authorization for its initially reported, seven-year offer, Heyman reports. That seemingly helps explain why subsequent reports indicated that K.C. never went that high in the bidding. San Diego also “made a big play” for outfielder Christian Yelich before he was shipped from the Marlins to the Brewers, Heyman notes in his leaguewide rundown of information. Notably, the Pads effectively ended up adding an outfielder when they inked Hosmer, thus pushing Wil Myers back onto the grass.
  • Some of the above information suggests, to an extent, that some players missed chances at bigger earnings, though perhaps it might only mean that others would have ended up enduring rough trips through free agency. And the reported offers are hardly overwhelming numbers for those players. Those interested in the broader subject of labor relations will certainly want to read this recent piece from Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, who takes a long look at what the union could do to begin fighting back against some of the problems that have arisen from the players’ perspective under the current CBA. Meanwhile, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America also tackles the subject, arguing that the owners will need to be careful not to press their advantage too strongly. And union chief Tony Clark discussed some of the qualms with the Marlins, who are one of the teams facing a grievance from the MLBPA, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports.

Athletics Expect To Land Veteran Catcher

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3:28pm: The Athletics are nearing agreement with Lucroy, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter).

3:14pm: The Athletics are pursuing a veteran catcher and expect to acquire one, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter). Specifically, the club anticipates either signing Jonathan Lucroy or acquiring Matt Wieters from the Nationals.

Lucroy remains one of the top remaining un-signed free agents. He entered the winter as the top-rated catcher available.

Needless to say, the latter possibility hints at the potential for lots of creative trade scenarios — especially given the long trade history between these organizations’ current front office leadership. The Nats owe Wieters a hefty $10.5MM salary after his poor 2017 season. At the same time, the team would surely only move him (and as much of the salary as it can) if it has an upgrade lined up.

Of course, it could be that the Nats would see Lucroy himself as a preferable option to Wieters, adding yet another potential dimension to the situation. Lucroy entered the winter emphasizing his desire to play for a competitor, after all. Washington has also long been tied to quality young Marlins receive J.T. Realmuto, though it’s not clear whether there has been any recent movement on that front.

At this point, though, the trade possibilities are all speculation.

Brewers Rumors: Broxton, Santana, Aguilar, Remaining Moves

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Much has been made of the Brewers’ outfield logjam since the signing of Lorenzo Cain and acquisition of Christian Yelich seemingly left the team with more big leaguers than spots to play them. While Domingo Santana has been an oft-speculated trade candidate, frequently connected to pitching targets, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Keon Broxton has actually been garnering more attention on the trade market (Twitter links). Santana, of course, had a breakout 2017 season in which he slugged 30 homers and hit .278/.371/.505 in 607 plate appearances and is more than two years younger than Broxton. However, Broxton’s ability to play center field is leading to a greater volume of interest than the Brew Crew is receiving in Santana, per the report. Haudricourt also notes that because Broxton has a minor league option remaining, he could potentially spend enough time in Triple-A to miss Super Two status, which would mean he’s not arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season. Even spending a month in the minors would put Broxton’s year-end service time at two years, 118 days, which would leave him shy of standard Super Two range.

A bit more on the Brewers…

  • There doesn’t appear to be space on the Brewers’ Opening Day roster for first baseman Jesus Aguilar, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy in his latest Brewers Inbox column. And, because Aguilar is out of minor league options, that means he’d be exposed to waivers (and quite likely claimed) or traded to another organization. The Brewers plan to carry eight relievers, and with Cain, Yelich, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames and Santana all in a carousel in the outfield and (in the case of Braun and Thames) at first base, there’s no clear bench spot for Aguilar. The 27-year-old Aguilar hit .265/.331/.505 with 16 homers as a rookie last year, including a .302/.370/.531 line against lefties. (A trade or injury could open a door to keep Aguilar on the roster.) McCalvy notes that Aguilar is “off-the-charts good in the clubhouse,” so retaining him would likely be a popular move with his teammates.
  • McCalvy also notes in that column that he’s received “no indication” that the Brewers are having conversations with the agents for either Neil Walker or Jonathan Lucroy — two former Brewers who remain unsigned. That meshes with comments from GM David Stearns in a Monday interview with Gary Ellerson and Ramie Makhlouf of 105.7 FM The Fan in Milwaukee (h/t: MLB.com’s Alyson Footer). Stearns said that he doesn’t expect another “significant” addition via either free agency or the trade market, though he notes that he’s still doing his due diligence and monitoring both markets with a “never say never” mentality. Nonetheless, Steanrs plainly stated that he “[anticipates] that we go into the season with the current group we have.” The GM also indicated, without delving into specific names, that the Brewers’ rumored interest in some free agents was overstated this offseason, stating that there was a “higher percentage” than usual of rumors that made him “scratch [his] head a little bit and wonder where that came from.”

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

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With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

  • The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
  • Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
  • It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Reds, Pirates

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Reiterating a familiar stance for the Brewers this offseason, GM David Stearns says that the club has confidence in its current group of starters, but they’re exploring upgrades (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). “We’ve explored a variety of starting pitching options out there, and have a pretty good sense of what the market is,” Stearns said Sunday. “Our stance is if we can make an acquisition that we think can meaningfully upgrade the team at a responsible investment level, that’s something we’re open to.” Stearns went on to say that he believes the Milwaukee front office has done a nice job of adding to their depth. This isn’t the first time the Brewers GM has expressed confidence in the club’s current group of starters, though that notion might be met with some skepticism considering the club’s lengthy pursuit of Yu Darvish that ultimately came up short.

Some other notes out of the NL Central…

  • Stearns expressed confidence in the club’s catching group as well when asked about the possibility of a reunion between the Brewers and Jonathan Lucroy (Twitter links from Haudricourt). The GM thinks that the team got “pretty meaningful production” last year from a position split between Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt and Jett Bandy (though there’s room for skepticism on that front too, considering the team’s catchers combined to finish 20th out of 30 MLB teams by positional fWAR). Haudricourt notes that Bandy is out of minor league options while Vogt’s deal is non-guaranteed, meaning the Brewers may have a tough decision to make during spring training camp.
  • Though Reds franchise icon Joey Votto has shown faith in the club’s rebuild in past seasons, the first baseman seems to be growing impatient, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I think we’re starting to get to the point where people are starting to get tired of this stretch of ball,” he told the press on Sunday. “I think something needs to start changing and start going in a different direction. I’m going to do my part to help make that change.” Votto certainly did all he could for the Reds during their recent losing stretch. Though the team lost at least 90 games in each of the past three seasons, he managed a stunning .320/.449/.557 slash line with 94 home runs and more walks (385) than strikeouts (338) during that time.
  • In part due to player feedback, the Pirates have made changes to their training staff this offseason that they believe will lead to fewer DL stints on the whole. Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the details: Bryan Housand, the team’s new head athletic trainer, and Todd Tomscyk, recently named director of sports medicine for the club, are two of the major cogs in this overhaul. GM Neal Huntington says that Tomczyk in particular will now be able to have a “bigger impact” on the club’s performance team. Notably, the club saw three of its 2017 contributors hit the DL with hamstring strains (Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and David Freese); perhaps this change in the club’s training approach could help to curb that issue in 2018.

Poll: Who Will Sign Jonathan Lucroy?

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Jonathan Lucroy went into the offseason as the most prominent free agent catcher available, though with February just a day away, Lucroy is still looking for his next team.  Yesterday’s news of an agreement between Alex Avila and the Diamondbacks took yet another potential landing spot off the board for Lucroy, leaving him with a rapidly narrowing list of options as Spring Training approaches.

Sep 22, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy (21) at bat during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

While Lucroy is far from the only notable player whose market has stalled in this unprecedentedly-slow free agent season, his case is a particularly interesting one given the traditional lack of catching depth around baseball.  There was certainly reason for teams to have concern about Lucroy heading into the winter, most notably his decline in power and framing ability and his massive slump in the first half of the 2017 season, yet you’d think that a player with Lucroy’s track record would’ve found some type of acceptable contract given how often teams require an upgrade behind the plate.  It was just in 2016, remember, that Lucroy hit .292/.355/.500 with 24 homers over 544 plate appearances.

As it happened, however, Lucroy seems to have run into something of a perfect storm of circumstances.  Beyond just his down 2017 season and the overall free agent deep freeze, the catching market was further crowded by the presence of J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal as trade candidates.  Lucroy also happened to hit free agency in a winter when most of the contending teams were pretty set behind the plate.  The D’Backs and Rockies both had holes at catcher, though Arizona went with Avila while Colorado signed Chris Iannetta despite some known interest in bringing Lucroy back to Coors Field.

Beyond just the contenders, a larger-than-usual number of teams in various stages of rebuilding phases haven’t had interest in spending significant dollars on a catcher (or, Lucroy may not have interest in finding himself traded at the deadline for the third consecutive year, which would be a distinct possibility if he joined a losing team on a pillow contract).  The White Sox gave Welington Castillo a two-year deal, while other catchers have inked one-year Major League pacts or minor league contracts to serve in backup roles.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Lucroy 20th on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting him for a two-year, $24MM deal.  Finding even that modest contract seems unlikely at this point, though that could open the door for more teams to some looking at Lucroy as a potential bargain.  Here are some of the candidates…

Mets: Lucroy reportedly drew some interest from the Amazins earlier this month, and they certainly fit the description of a team that could turn to Lucroy if (or now that) his price tag can fit into their limited budget.  Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) outlined some of the reasons for a Mets/Lucroy connection this morning, calling him “a perfect fit” given Travis d’Arnaud’s defensive limitations and the fact that d’Arnaud could either be retained as a non-costly backup or perhaps shopped himself in trade talks.

Astros: Aside from the Mets and Rockies, there has been very little buzz about Lucroy on the rumor mill this winter, to the point that this item from Jon Heyman back in November about Houston’s interest in Lucroy represents the only other team linked to the catcher this offseason.  In the two and a half months since Heyman’s report, the Astros agreed to a $6.7MM arbitration-avoiding deal with Evan Gattis and plan to use him as their primary DH, and also signed Tim Federowicz as minor league depth to battle with Max Stassi for the backup job.  A catcher/DH timeshare between Lucroy and starter Brian McCann would’ve been creative, though it doesn’t seem like the Astros still seem like plausible suitors.

Nationals: Unwilling to deal their very best prospects to Miami for Realmuto, the Nats could pivot away from a trade and instead sign Lucroy to supplant Matt Wieters as the everyday catcher.  Lucroy could potentially be a open to a discount to play for a World Series contender like Washington, and even a two-year deal would make a him a nice bridge to Pedro Severino if the Nationals still see the youngster as their catcher of the future.  One obstacle: after getting burned on the Wieters contract, could the Nats be wary about signing another veteran catcher showing signs of decline?

Athletics: In the wake of Bruce Maxwell’s arrest on aggravated assault and disorderly conduct charges, GM David Forst said that the A’s were still counting on Maxwell as their first-choice catcher heading into 2018.  With Lucroy still on the market months later, however, the A’s might take advantage of an opportunity to land a potential star catcher at a lower price.  As mentioned earlier, however, Lucroy might be hesitant to join a team that could again make him a trade deadline chip.

Orioles: Dan Duquette is no stranger to signing free agents still lingering on the market in February.  Top prospect Chance Sisco is slated for regular duty next season, though since 2018 is clearly a go-for-broke season for the O’s with so many big names (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and Duquette himself) entering the last year of their contracts, the team might want more of a proven veteran presence behind the plate.

The field: You could stretch and make cases for such teams as the Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Rangers, Cubs, or Angels as potential Lucroy suitors, though these teams range from “probably only in the event of another trade” or “major longshots.”  Still, we could be in for a wild February of player movement given how much has yet to be decided within the free agent market.  It isn’t out of the question that further trades could open up a spot for Lucroy on an unexpected roster, and an injury in Spring Training could also create a new suitor out of nowhere.

Where do you think Lucroy will be playing come Opening Day? (poll link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Market Chatter: Marlins, Mets, Cobb, JDM, Astros, Hamilton, Royals

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While the Marlins have reportedly been holding talks regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that four rival general managers expressed doubt” that a trade will actually take place involving these young assets. Whether that opinion is based on the reportedly astronomical asking prices or other factors isn’t immediately clear. There’s some suggestion from some of Rosenthal’s sources, though, that the Fish are concerned with perception and won’t make a deal unless it seems the offer was overwhelming. That seems largely unlikely, but the already less-than-rosy returns on the initial months of the new ownership have been marred further by reports from the Miami Herald about the incoming plans. Most recently, Barry Jackson reported that CEO Derek Jeter stands to receive a $5MM salary with multi-million-dollar bonuses if he can deliver profitability to the ownership group (of which he is a part). PR considerations aside, there’s certainly a compelling case to deal Realmuto and Yelich rather than take the risk of holding them. Rosenthal argues the organization ought to simply follow through on the rebuilding steps it has taken already, using this offseason as the time to cash in both of those quality young players.

Here are some more market notes:

  • The Mets are said to be checking in on the market for third basemen, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The report suggests that the New York organization is positioning itself as a landing spot for Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier if they reduce their current asking prices. Similarly, the club has checked in on backstop Jonathan Lucroy as well as left-handed-hitting first basemen Adam Lind and Logan Morrison. (Those two potential first base options, of course, occupy quite different market segments given the former’s age and the latter’s breakout 2017 season.) All told, it still seems the Mets are broadly canvassing the market for possible upgrades, but looking to do so with relatively limited financial resources still available.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag has a variety of interesting notes in a look at the top remaining free agents and other notes from around the game. Free agent righty Alex Cobb is “willing” to take a four-year deal at a $70MM guarantee, says Heyman. Of course, that’s also a significant amount more than MLBTR, at least, projected he’d earn on the open market. It would appear there’s still some market development left to go between Cobb and his suitors. Of course, there are also a few higher-regarded starters left whose own situations may need to be resolved first. Meanwhile, fellow free agent righty Andrew Cashner is reportedly angling for a three-year pact. While the 31-year-old did manage a 3.40 ERA in 166 2/3 innings in 2017, teams will be wary given that he carried only a meager 4.6 K/9 on the year.
  • Years are also at issue for J.D. Martinez, Heyman explains. Red Sox president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski is not interested in offering more than five years, but Heyman suggests that agent Scott Boras could yet try to make his case at the ownership level. The “word is there are other five-year offers,” Heyman adds, though it remains hard to imagine which other reportedly interested club would be able to compete financially with the Sox for Martinez.
  • Heyman also checks in on the closer market. The Astros, he notes, remain interested in adding a high-end, late-inning arm. It’s not entirely clear if they are a realistic suitor for Greg Holland, but in theory he’d be an option. Holland is said to have set out in search of five years in free agency. That never really seemed likely, as he’s 32 years of age and had at least a few late-season stumbles in his first campaign back from Tommy John surgery. Of course, Holland is still expected to secure a significant contract, though a three-year arrangement may be likeliest at this point.
  • Though the Reds continue to engage in discussions regarding center fielder Billy Hamilton, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes on Twitter that there’s one major potential roadblock. Club owner Bob Castellini is quite hesitant to part with Hamilton, it seems. While there’s no indication that the switch-hitting speed demon is completely off limits, the stance may make it harder to get a deal done.
  • As the Royals weigh their options at short, it seems the team is targeting some veterans that figure to be available on lower-cost deals. Incumbent Alcides Escobar remains an option, says Heyman, while Kansas City is also said to be favorably disposed toward Ryan Goins.
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