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Gammons On Top Starters, Shields, Blue Jays, Drew, Polanco

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In two pieces today for GammonsDaily.com, Peter Gammons discusses a variety of hot stove topics. In particular, even before Clayton Kershaw's market-busting extension earlier today, Gammons noted that the price of starting pitching has been a hot topic among baseball GMs.

  • The two key situations driving market pricing, he writes, are the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes and how the Rays handle David Price. Tanaka could command $120MM or more from the Yankees or Dodgers, says Gammons. As for Price, Tampa is increasingly inclined to hold onto their ace at least until the trade deadline, when they can try to extract a higher price or hold onto him for a postseason run. 
  • These situations could have a substantial impact on several other high-end starters that are set to become free agents next year. James Shields has let the Royals know that he is looking to score a contract on the magnitude of Zach Greinke's six-year, $147MM deal.
  • Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Reds do not plan on approaching key extension candidates Jon Lester and Homer Bailey, respectively, until Spring Training.
  • After disappointing returns on some of their major pitching acquisitions last year, the Blue Jays are not going to engage in any bidding wars for starting pitching, Gammons says. The club will instead "build on youth and rehabs," and will only jump into the mix for arms like Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez if they "fall down to [Toronto]."
  • Agent Scott Boras has increasingly given indication that free agent Stephen Drew is willing to play positions other than shortstop, says Gammons, which may increase his appeal to both the Yankees and Red Sox. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes in a separate piece, Boras says that Drew has suitors other than the Sox and Mets, though he declined to name them.
  • Already considered one of the game's top prospects, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco has raised his stock even further with big numbers (including a .428 OBP) in he Dominican winter league. Polanco, 22, could have an impact by the mid-season of 2014. More importantly for the Bucs' long-term plans, one National League GM tells Gammons that the prospective Pittsburgh outfield of Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, and Starling Marte "will be the best outfield in the game." 

Red Sox Notes: Lester, Drew, Tanaka

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Jon Lester is entering his last season under contract with the Red Sox and Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal explores what it might cost Boston to re-sign Lester to a new multiyear deal.  Lester will be 31 on Opening Day 2015, so MacPherson uses the age 31-34 years of Cole Hamels' contract as a model, adding a guaranteed fifth to propose a five-year, $100MM extension for Lester.  While Lester re-established his value in the postseason and the Sox have been willing to lock up homegrown players, MacPherson also wonders if the club is confident enough in its young pitching depth to let Lester go rather than pay him a big salary through that would be his decline years.

Here are some more Red Sox-related items, all from Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe…

  • The Red Sox currently hold all the leverage on Stephen Drew, and that leverage could become "a hammer," Abraham writes.  Since Boston seems willing to wait out Drew's market, the relative lack of interest in the veteran infielder makes Abraham believe the Sox could offer Drew a one-year, "take it or leave it" type of offer if Drew is still unsigned by mid-January.  If Drew turns the offer down, the Sox will be content with collecting the compensatory draft pick when Drew signs elsewhere, and Boston's desire for those valuable picks could make them pass on Drew anyway, Abraham notes.
  • "There is no sign yet that the Red Sox are interested" in Masahiro Tanaka.  As Abraham notes, Boston's young pitching depth and recent trend away from big-money free agent deals would seem to hint against a move, and signing Tanaka could impact a possible Lester extension.
  • Abraham cites Jesse Crain as "an interesting name" for the Sox considering Crain's history with pitching coach Juan Nieves and new catcher A.J. Pierzynski.  The Cubs, Astros and Rockies are a few of the teams known to have an interest in Crain this offseason.  Abraham opines that the Red Sox need bullpen depth since he doesn't think Koji Uehara will be as durable following Uehara's career-high 73 games and 74 1/3 innings pitched in 2013.

AL East Links: Choo, Drew, Lester, Yankees

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As we continue to round up leftovers from Day Two of the Winter Meetings with an eye toward Day Three, let's check in on the latest notes from around the AL East….

  • In a piece for ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick breaks down all the teams that could make a run at Shin-Soo Choo, including the Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees. Crasnick concludes that the lack of very strong candidates doesn't necessarily bode well for Choo's chances of landing a $130MM+ contract, but cautions, as always, not to underestimate Scott Boras.
  • if Stephen Drew is willing to sign for two years or less, he'll likely just return to Boston, tweets Newsday's David Lennon, who adds that the Mets will probably need the Red Sox out of the mix to have a real shot at the shortstop.
  • Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald explains why Cole Hamels' contract with the Phillies may provide a blueprint for any extension talks the Red Sox have with Jon Lester.
  • The Yankees' decision to sign three free agents who required draft pick compensation should help keep the team contend in the short term, but may further stunt the growth of the farm system, writes Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.

AL East Notes: Lester, Blue Jays, Rays

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The Red Sox want relief help, but they aren't likely to pursue high-priced acquisitions, reports WEEI.com's Rob Bradford. That means no moves like last year's trade for Joel Hanrahan, and it also means they won't be in the market for players like Joe Nathan or Grant Balfour. Still, GM Ben Cherington hopes to acquire relievers who might end up pitching in key spots. "We want as many guys as possible that we think have the potential and the stuff to pitch in high-leverage situations," he says. Here's more news from the AL East.

  • The Red Sox have not begun discussing an extension with starting pitcher Jon Lester, but they appear likely to do so near the start of spring training, Bradford writes. If the Red Sox do sign Lester to an extension, they will likely wait until after Opening Day to complete it, since his current contract only counts $9.4MM per season against the 2014 luxury tax. The average annual value of an extension would likely be far greater.
  • The Blue Jays may need to add two starters this winter, writes SportsNet.ca's Shi Davidi. They have R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, and also Brandon Morrow, who's recovering from a forearm injury. After that, they'll be leaning on players like J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, and Todd Redmond, plus youngsters Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Sean Nolin. That group isn't the greatest bet to provide top-quality innings, at least not in 2014.
  • The Rays are interested in finding a first baseman, catcher and late-inning reliever this offseason, the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin tweets. The reliever may not be a proven-closer type, which is no surprise given the Rays' budgetary constraints. They'll also look for bench help.

Red Sox Links: Beltran, Hanigan, Hanrahan, Rotation

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Multiple reports indicate that the Red Sox are interested in Carlos Beltran, though the extent of that interest is somewhat up in the air. George A. King III of the New York Post reports that Boston is "aggressively" pursuing Beltran but are receiving early competition from the Yankees and Orioles. Elsewhere, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo tweets that the Red Sox do indeed have interest in the eight-time All-Star, but a team source tells him they haven't been very aggressive to this point. Here are some more BoSox items for your Friday morning…

  • Red Sox assistant GM Mike Hazen appeared on WEEI's Hot Stove Show on Thursday to discuss David Ross and other internal catching options, how other teams may try to copy Boston's offseason strategy from last year and how the team could be more open to giving up their first round draft pick in order to sign a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent.  WEEI.com's Alex Speier has a partial transcript of the interview.
  • Another catching option could be Reds backstop Ryan Hanigan, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes.  Hanigan is expected to be shopped now that Cincinnati has signed Brayan Pena, and Hanigan's defense and on-base ability would certainly be of interest to the Red Sox.
  • Joel Hanrahanspoke with WEEI.com's Rob Bradford and discussed how difficult it was to watch from home in October this season — the first time one of his teams had ever been to the playoffs: "…I didn’t want to take time away from the trainers who are trying to keep the guys on the field who are playing. I didn’t want to be in the way. It was tough for me, but it was a whole heck of a lot of fun watching at home and seeing the success they had." Hanrahan said he's received calls from multiple eams already to check in on his rehab and spoke highly of Boston's training staff and the organization as a whole. According to Bradford, Hanrahan is throwing from 120 feet and hopes to have a few bullpen sessions under his belt prior to the onset of Spring Training.
  • The Sox may have six competent starters under contract for next season — Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster — but GM Ben Cherington told MLB.com's Ian Browne that he doesn't envision trading one of them this winter.
  • Barring a trade of Dempster or Peavy, WEEI.com's Alex Speier figures that the Red Sox will have just over $32MM to spend and still successfully avoid this year's $189MM luxury tax threshold. That number, theorizes Speier, could be the reason that the Red Sox couldn't afford to gamble on making qualifying offers to all three of Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Saltalmacchia, of course, was the odd man out and didn't receive a qualifying offer.
  • In a separate piece, Speier provides an excellent breakdown of the CBA's calculation of average annual value for luxury tax purposes, explaining how Lester's AAV next season will jump to $9.37MM now that his option has been exercised.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Lester, Granderson, Feldman

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The Red Sox recipe for a championship has been discussed extensively, ever since it became clear that the team was going to be a real contender. But how does it work as a model for other teams? The New York Post's Joel Sherman, for one, thinks it was a one-time stroke. (He compares the lasting power of GM Ben Cherington's mid-tier free agent binge unfavorably to that of the Macarena.) As Sherman well explains, the circumstances for Boston's worst-to-first turnaround are fairly unique, including the Sox' preexisting talent base and nigh-unbelievable success rate in its free agent signings. While teams are likely to have taken account of the lessons that Cherington taught in occupying the market's midsection, says Sherman, no single one can replicate it. And teams will find their dollars won't go quite as far as did Boston's last time around. More from the American League East:

  • Boston had an offer on the table from the Royals that would have sent Jon Lester to KC in exchange for Wil Myers, reports the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. When the Sox asked for time to think, Kansas City instead used Myers to bring back James Shields from the Rays. Lauber says that the Red Sox are lucky not to have acted on that tempting trade offer, arguing that Lester has turned into an "undisputed ace." While there is no question that Lester played a critical role in the team's World Series run, that characterization might be subject to some debate — Lester was tied with Jhoulys Chacin for 16th in fWAR among qualified starters this year, but ranked 52nd in ERA and 41st in FIP. 
  • On the other hand, Lester is eighth among starters in cumulative fWAR since 2008, making clear that he has been both excellent and durable. Lauber goes on to weight a possible new contract for the sturdy lefty. He points to two possible comparables: the five-year, $85MM deal signed by Jered Weaver of the Angels, and the six-year, $144MM pact handed Cole Hamels. According to Lauber, the Sox should be interested in an extension — in spite of their prospect depth — if they can get Lester for something more like the lesser of those two deals.
  • The Yankees have yet to decide whether to issue outfielder Curtis Granderson a qualifying offer, reports Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. Perhaps hoping to deter just that possibility, Granderson's agent Matt Brown said that "there's definitely a possibility" that his client would accept an offer. Of course, he also emphasized that Granderson remains "a pretty elite guy" who will be sought after on the free agent market. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts that the market will value him in the three-year, $45MM range. A qualifying offer, and subsequent rejection of same, still seems the likeliest scenario.
  • Orioles GM Dan Duquette may have a lot of free agents clearing the books, but that doesn't mean he'll be rushing to act on most of them, says the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly. Mid-season starter acquisition Scott Feldman is the top target among them for a Baltimore club that does not figure to flash too much cash on the market, Connolly explains, but the O's aren't likely to go past two years for him. 

AL East Links: Price, Lester, Papi, Orioles

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Timing will be the trickiest issue of the offseason for Rays, GM Andrew Friedman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Even if Friedman has an early opportunity to address first base (e.g. re-signing James Loney) or left field, he will have to keep the possibility of a David Price trade in the back of his mind. Acting too quickly to fill either hole could cause the team to miss out on a superior, more permanent option at the position that could be filled in a potential Price trade. Says Friedman: "We have to utilize all the information we have accumulated to that point to make the best decision possible while also appreciating the trickle-down effect of each move." Here's more from the AL East…

  • Jon Lester told reporters, including WEEI.com's Alex Speier, that he's excited to be returning to the Red Sox for another year after having his option picked up but hopes that he can work out a long-term deal with the team. Lester is currently more focused on celebrating Boston's 2013 World Series victory, but said "Hopefully [next year is] not the only one and we can be here for a long time."
  • David Ortiz is still producing at a virtually ageless clip, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald in arguing that the Red Sox should extend their DH. Big Papi is signed through 2014, but his potent bat and status as face of the franchise should earn him a lengthier guarantee, opines Silverman.
  • The Orioles must decide if they wish to protect left-handers Chris Jones and Tim Berry as well as catcher Michael Ohman from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly also points out the potential fit between the O's and Mark Ellis, should Brian Roberts not be re-signed. There's still some mutual interest between Baltimore and Roberts, Connolly reports.

Red Sox Exercise 2014 Option On Jon Lester

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NOV. 1, 5:10pm: The Red Sox have officially announced the exercise of the option, by way of a team press release.

NOV. 1, 4:32pm: WEEI.com's Rob Bradford tweets that the Red Sox have now officially picked up Lester's option. 

SEPT. 9, 11:11pm: The Red Sox are "all but certain" to pick up Lester's option, MLB.com's Ian Browne writes. But Browne also reports that the team won't lock itself into that decision until after the season is over.

9:09pm: The Red Sox have agreed to pick up their $13MM 2014 option on starting pitcher Jon Lester, Anthony Witrado, formerly of the Sporting News, tweets. The option comes at the end of a five-year, $30MM deal that covered the 2009 through 2013 seasons. Lester is guaranteed a $250K buyout if Boston does not pick up his option.

Lester has a 3.86 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 193 1/3 innings in 2013. Those aren't Cy Young-type numbers, but the decision to pick up Lester's option still looks like it should be an easy one for the Red Sox, since Lester is relatively young (29) and fairly consistent from year to year. (He posted a 4.82 ERA in 2012, but his peripherals were very consistent with those of years past.) Lester has posted a WAR north of 3.0 in all of the last six seasons and appears to be a good bet to do it again in 2014, meaning he's easily worth what is essentially a one-year, $12.75MM contract.

Steve Adams and Jeff Todd contributed to the post.

Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers

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While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:

  • The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
  • Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
  • James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.

AL East Notes: Girardi, Lester, Rays, Price, Janssen

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The Yankees have made a substantial offer to keep manager Joe Girardi, Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports. A source tells Marchand that Girardi could think about the offer through the weekend. "We are going to give him a real good reason to stay," says GM Brian Cashman. Rumors have connected Girardi to the Cubs' managerial job, which might be a possibility if he chooses to leave. The Nationals and Reds also have managerial openings that Girardi might find attractive. Girardi is currently under contract with the Yankees through the end of October. Here are more notes from the AL East.

  • Last offseason, the Red Sox and Royals discussed a possible trade involving Jon Lester and Wil Myers, Lester tells WEEI.com's Alex Speier. "[Royals manager Ned Yost] is actually a pretty good friend of mine. I flat-out called him one day and was like, 'Hey, what do you got on this?' He said, ‘Yeah, we’re trying to make it work,'" Lester says. One reason the trade ultimately didn't happen is that the Royals finally traded Myers and three other players to the Rays, the Red Sox's current ALDS opponent, for a package headlined by James Shields.
  • One assistant GM proposes that the Rays could trade David Price to the Dodgers for Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Julio Urias and Chris Withrow, Peter Gammons writes. That would give the Rays two very good hitting prospects in Seager and Pederson, a very young arm in Urias, and a big-league reliever in Withrow. MLB.com ranks Pederson and Seager the top two prospects in the Dodgers system, with Urias at No. 4.
  • The Blue Jays are "sure" to pick up their $4MM option on closer Casey Janssen, writes Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca. Janssen is coming off a strong season, so the decision would seem to be an easy one. Davidi notes that Janssen would likely make twice as much on the open market, and win a multi-year deal to boot.
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