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Cubs Notes: Samardzija, Zobrist, Leake, Lackey

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers has penned a column on the status of the Cubs’ targets in free agency at present. To this point, the team hasn’t given any indication that a pursuit of either Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto is a possibility, leaving David Price as the sole top-tier arm that the Cubs could be expected to pursue, Rogers writes. The Cubs’ Plan B in terms of free-agent pitchers focuses on Jeff Samardzija at this point, according to Rogers, and sources tell him that the team is also in the mix for Ben Zobrist. Signing Zobrist would all but ensure a trade of Starlin Castro, but of course, there is widespread interest in Zobrist, who is one of the most popular free agents on this year’s market. Rogers lists Jason Heyward as a perhaps speculative target but notes that president Theo Epstein has pointed out in the past how young the game is getting, and Heyward, 26, would indeed fit into the Cubs’ youth movement in terms of position players. I’d imagine that signing Heyward would create further trade speculation surrounding Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, though Rogers doesn’t indicate that Heyward is a top target of the Cubs as things presently stand, so much of that speculation would be putting the cart before the horse.

Here are a few more notes pertaining to the Cubs…

  • CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan hears that the Cubs are active on many fronts at this point but still doesn’t believe that the Cubs will be significant players for Price or Greinke (links to Twitter). Kaplan hears that the Cubs are currently active on the trade market and are also in touch with the representatives for Samardzija, Mike Leake and John Lackey. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs’ highly touted farm system has many names that are in high demand as the team explores the trade market for starting pitching. Any of Samardzija, Leake or Lackey would give the Cubs a strong third starter to slot behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation.
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that the difference between this winter and last offseason for the Cubs is that Epstein & Co. can now sell prospective free agents on the allure of joining a contender rather than preaching patience and trust that the rebuild will deliver a winning club. Epstein also explained to Sullivan a number of non-monetary incentives that the Cubs pitch to players, including the team’s new clubhouse and the programs the Cubs have set up for the families of players to enjoy upon relocating to Chicago. “Just little things behind the scenes we do that really impact the lives for our players’ families they may not be aware of,” said Epstein. Of course, as Sullivan notes, those factors alone probably won’t outweigh the difference between tens of millions of dollars, but they could help tip the scales in Chicago’s favor should they make a similar offer to another club for a free agent target.
  • Epstein noted today that the club’s early-offseason moves haven’t been without their importance, as Rogers reports. “Depth is underrated, especially in the winter,” said Hoyer. “Everyone will write out lineups in the offseason and they don’t focus on bench, they don’t focus on the bullpen, they don’t focus on guys in Triple-A that are going up and down. Over the course of six months, those are the little moves that make a huge difference.” But Hoyer made clear that more impactful transactions are coming in the near term, with the organization prepared to adapt as the market explodes. “You have to stay nimble and know things will come at you that you might not have expected,” he said. “Some team will throw an idea at us that we never thought about.”

Orioles Notes: Davis, Pitching, Morneau, Hardy

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The Orioles were right to extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer even though the plan backfired, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com. Dubroff’s wish list for the club includes first baseman Chris Davis, a starting pitcher, and a quality outfielder. He doesn’t expect the club’s payroll to exceed $130MM to $140MM. With about $100MM committed to their current roster, the club has just enough money to pay Davis and one other substantial piece.

  • The three-year, $36MM contract signed by J.A. Happ serves to set the market floor for mid-tier starting pitchers, per Dubroff. Possible Orioles targets like Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, John Lackey, and Jeff Samardzija can expect to earn more than Happ. If the club retains the space to re-sign Davis, then they’re out on any of the top market starting pitchers.
  • Dubroff also looks at first basemen past Davis. Several like Chris Parmelee, Kelly Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Mark Reynolds, and Steve Pearce have already appeared with the Orioles. None would represent a fan-inspiring signing. Should the club fall short on Davis, Dubroff suggests a one-year flyer on Justin Morneau as one alternative.
  • While Baltimore may look to free agency for additions, current players need to step up their game too, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. In particular, J.J. Hardy, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez are listed as three players in need of a rebound. Injuries have ruined Hardy’s last two seasons, especially at the plate. Tillman, once a promising pitching prospect, is coming off his worst season since 2011. Gonzalez is entering his age 32 season after posting career worst numbers across the board.

Quick Hits: Holliday, Davis, Price, Cubs, Padres, Relievers, CBA

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In response to a reader question about Matt Holliday as a possible trade candidate, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch doubts the Cardinals would move a such strong bat since the team’s main winter goal is to add offense.  Langosch isn’t sure if the Cards have any interest in dealing Holliday or if he would accept a trade via his 10-and-5 veto rights.  Even at age 35 and battling injuries last season, Holliday still posted a very respectable .279/.394/.410 line over 277 plate appearances.  2016 is his last guaranteed year under contract (St. Louis has a $17MM club option on him for 2017) so it’s also not like Holliday is a long-term roadblock for the club’s upcoming young outfielders.  Here’s some more from around baseball as we look forward to leftover turkey tomorrow…

  • The Astros aren’t likely to be big players for Chris Davis, a source familiar with the situation tells Evan Drelllich of the Houston Chronicle.  Davis will command a big price and Houston already has a lot of high-power, high-strikeout hitters.  I myself speculated that Davis and the Astros could be a fit in my Astros Offseason Outlook piece, under the logic that the team needs a big left-handed bat, Davis is a Texas native and first base would be open if Chris Carter and Evan Gattis were non-tendered.  Drellich’s piece looks at that first base situation for the Astros, and the presence of prospects Tyler White and A.J. Reed might also make a Davis signing unlikely.
  • Six general managers who recently spoke with Peter Gammons believe the Red Sox will sign David Price this offseason.  “Boston will go $30-40M above anyone else” to land Price, one NL GM opines.  This is just the latest chatter connecting Price to the Sox, and while Gammons writes that “some feel he is uneasy about Boston, but David is so sophisticated, so talented and so intelligent he will make the best of any situation.”  Another GM, however, speculates that the Cardinals could be the ones to make the big play for Price, passing on re-signing Jason Heyward in the process.
  • Gammons shares some more chatter from his sources, including “a lot of John Lackey and Alex Gordon to the Cubs speculation.”
  • Recently designated players like John Axford, Daniel Nava, A.J. Griffin, Danny Hultzen and Wilin Rosario could all be intriguing targets for the Padres, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune opines.  The first three are free agents, Hultzen was outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster and Rosario is still in DFA limbo.
  • Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris tries to identify some of the smaller-name or underrated relief arms on the open market that could blossom into bargain pickups.  The Cubs are one example of a club that has built an entire bullpen (and a strong one, at that) out of such under-the-radar pitchers, as Sarris notes.
  • One of the underlying stories of 2016 will be the negotiations between MLB and the players union over the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes.  Stark’s piece highlights some of the major issues that are likely to play a big role in the upcoming talks, ranging from revenue sharing, free agency and the qualifying offer, the length of the season, a possible international amateur draft and more.  Another interesting topic could be how the league may address teams “tanking” several seasons in an attempt to rebuild, and possible solutions include a draft lottery or a rule prohibiting teams from drafting in the top five in consecutive seasons.
  • The good news about the CBA talks is that multiple sources on both sides tell Stark that everyone wants to keep the labor peace that baseball has enjoyed for over two decades.  “It’s a 9-and-a-half-billion dollar industry.  Nobody is going to want to blow it up,” one source tells Stark.

Starting Pitching Notes: Lackey, Fernandez, Price, Chen

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The Giants are among the clubs that are showing interest in right-hander John Lackey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). San Francisco, though, is exploring a wide swath of starting pitching options, per Rosenthal, so it only makes sense that Lackey would be among the pitchers to pique the team’s interest. The 37-year-old Lackey has been a popular name on the free-agent market thus far, having reportedly been connected to the Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, D-Backs, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers thus far. Over the weekend, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo listed the Giants and Cubs as the two teams with the best shot to sign Lackey.

Here’s more on the market for rotation arms…

  • Executives from teams searching for high-end starting pitching tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Jose Fernandez isn’t available in trades at this time. Sherman spoke with Fernandez’s agent, Scott Boras, about the reported tension between him and the Marlins’ front office. Boras tells Sherman that he spoke with Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill the day after the initial negative reports surfaced, with Hill telling him that he looked forward to Fernandez fronting the team’s rotation in 2016.
  • In an appearance on TSN 1050 in Canada (audio link), ESPN’s Keith Law discusses David Price with hosts Derek Taylor and Kara Wagland, noting that there’s no reason to believe he would accept anything less than full market value to return to the Blue Jays. Law adds that he’s never felt a reunion between the two sides is likely, pointing out that the MLBPA encourages the top names on the market to take every dollar possible to drive up the price for the second tier of free agents and the following year’s class. The idea of Price returning to Toronto has seemed like a long shot, at best, since he was acquired, given the team’s mid-sized payroll and previous lack of lengthy commitments. Law’s colleague, Buster Olney, wrote recently in his ESPN Insider daily blog post that some evaluators involved in discussions with Price’s camp believe that Price is indicating to all clubs that he’d like to play for them.
  • FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi wonders if left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could potentially pull down an annual value of $20MM on his upcoming contract. While that number seems like a stretch, Morosi points out that agents will likely be citing Rick Porcello’s $20.625MM annual value in contract negotiations this winter. A team paying $20MM+ annually for Chen seems like a stretch to me, but Morosi’s general point about Porcello serving as a reference is interesting; we’ll find out this offseason whether that contract looks like an outlier or one that served to drive up the price for second-tier starting pitchers. Porcello’s name has come up in conversations I’ve had with industry contacts this winter, though only time will tell if his contract does indeed serve to advance the secondary pitching market.
  • In a piece for Sports On Earth, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell tries to peg Zack Greinke’s free-agent value based on historical comparisons. Cassavell looks at age-based comps in an attempt to gauge how long Greinke will remain effective and the length of contract he’ll ultimately command. Cassavell projects that Greinke can be realistically relied upon for three more high-quality seasons before beginning to regress to above-average (but no longer elite) results, ultimately coming to the conclusion of a six-year, $153MM contract prediction.

Quick Hits: Fernandez, Marlins, Rizzo, Orioles

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The Astros haven’t been linked to David Price in free agent rumors, but that hasn’t stopped Dallas Keuchel from acting as a recruiter.  “The baseball fan in me definitely would like to see [a rotation] upgrade but that’s not in my control.  I know I’ve made pitches to David Price — it’s just the baseball fan in me at the end of the day,” Keuchel tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.  “I just play. … I think (the bosses) know that we’re in a good position.”  While Price may be a bit too expensive for the Astros, the team has certainly been connected to several other free agent arms as Houston looks to back up Keuchel with another first-rate starter.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • Two Marlins sources say that Jose Fernandez’s attitude is becoming a problem, with teammates annoyed that Fernandez “has become more entitled and cocky” due to perceived favoritism from owner Jeffrey Loria.  Despite this issue, the team isn’t planning on trading Fernandez, though the Marlins know they’ll have a hard time retaining him once he hits free agency after the 2018 season.
  • Also from Jackson, he reports that the Marlins have reached out to John Lackey, Scott Kazmir and Tim Lincecum, among other available starting pitchers.  This is the first time we’ve heard of Miami’s interest in Lackey, though the veteran right-hander has been getting plenty of attention from several other clubs.
  • If the Marlins change course on Fernandez and decide that a trade is necessary, the Dodgers, Red Sox, Royals, Twins and Astros could all be particularly good fits to acquire the star righty, ESPN’s David Schoenfield writes.
  • Earlier this week, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes) that he’ll be looking to add a left-handed hitter to help balance out the Nats’ lineup.  Starting pitching isn’t necessarily a big need, as Tanner Roark and Joe Ross look set to fill out the rotation behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, so while starting pitching isn’t necessarily a big need, Rizzo didn’t quite close the door on the subject.  “I’m happy sliding Tanner and Joe in the rotation.  With that said, you can never have enough good starting pitching,” Rizzo said.
  • The Orioles haven’t swung any blockbuster trades under Dan Duquette’s watch, and CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff doesn’t expect that to change this winter.  Part of the issue this offseason is that the O’s don’t have much to offer in the way of prospects; Dubroff lists some of the notable minor league arms the Orioles have dealt in recent years, particularly three young starters traded within the last year just to address their right field hole (in the form of Travis Snider and then Gerardo Parra).  As I noted in my Orioles Offseason Outlook piece, Baltimore has so many departing free agents that Duquette will need to be more aggressive than usual with trades or signings in order to keep the team competitive.
  • The Yankees “fixate on high strikeout rates, low walk rates and high groundball percentages” for their starting pitchers, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes.  With this model in mind, Sherman looks at ten pitchers that could be targeted by the Yankees in trade talks, though some will be harder to acquire than others since New York isn’t intending to deal top prospects like Aaron Judge.

Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…

  • The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder.  Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening.  It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere.  I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
  • The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel.  That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season.  Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
  • Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros’ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration.  We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
  • Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation.  “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it.  Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
  • The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
  • Though Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader.  As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
  • Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
  • Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League.  The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services.  The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
  • John Boggs, Trevor Cahill’s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”

Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Lackey, Asdrubal, Oh

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has a fascinating new column on the lengths to which Yoenis Cespedes’ agents at CAA and Roc Nation Sports have gone to market the outfielder to clubs. Cespedes’ representatives have distributed a roughly 100-page, cloth-covered book entitled “52 Reviews” (a hat tip to Cesepedes’ jersey number) that contains testimonials from managers, coaches, teammates, executives and media members on Cespedes. The book also has a video player embedded on the inside cover which plays a highlight reel set to music. (One can only hope it is as majestic as Cespedes’ initial 20-minute showcase video as an amateur.) While Crasnick notes that such materials don’t necessarily provide increasingly analytic teams with any data of which they were previously unaware, one assistant GM offered an interesting take on the book’s purpose: “I think the agents are hoping these things will find a way into hands of the owners and have an impact on people who are writing the checks. And it’s such a cutthroat industry, the agents want to make it 100 percent clear they’re doing everything they can and more than the next guy will do.” Crasnick spoke to officials who are familiar with Cespedes that downplayed any clubhouse concerns and also talked with CAA head Brodie Van Wagenen about the effect that “52 Reviews” has had, with Van Wagenen noting that more than anything, it has sparked dialogue about Cespedes’ talent, which is the primary purpose. Crasnick’s column is well worth checking out in full, of course.

A few more notes on the free agent market…

  • The Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers have all “at least checked in” with John Lackey’s representatives, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Each of the listed teams has a well-known desire to add pitching help either via free agency or trade this winter (or, in some cases, likely both).
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is currently getting interest from four clubs, tweets SB Nations’ Chris Cotillo. The Rays aren’t believed to have ruled out a reunion, he adds, though it seems unlikely to me that Tampa Bay would not only bring Cabrera back but likely give him a raise after already acquiring Brad Miller this offseason. Miller gives the Rays an option at shortstop, and Logan Forsythe, of course, had a breakout season at second base. A Cabrera return would jam up the payroll and also push Miller into a utility role, which doesn’t make much sense after he was the key piece acquired from Seattle in exchange for Nate Karns — a quality, young right-handed starter.
  • Newsday’s Marc Carig tweets that Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh is on the Mets’ radar, but the team isn’t planning an aggressive pursuit of him at this time. New York is said to be eyeing relievers to bolster its setup core.
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs lists the five free agents that he would avoid this season, citing Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann and Chris Davis as potential landmines and explaining his rationale for skepticism in each case.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.
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