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Padres Notes: Gonzalez, Bell, Latos

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A few weeks ago, when Kevin Towers said he expects the Padres to be "pretty good" in 2010, many scoffed at the notion. ESPN's Buster Olney teams up with Baseball Prospectus and a few other members of the ESPN Insider staff to take a look at the Padres, what went wrong, what to expect in the future, and why there may be some hope for the Friars soon. ESPN Insider is required, but here's the highlights for those without:

  • No surprise to see Olney say that the divorce of then-owner John Moores hit the team hard. That's a large part of the payroll cuts, and being forced to part with both Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy.
  • Olney says that after going 32-21 since July 28, it's unlikely that the Padres trade Adrian Gonzalez this offseason. The Padres do feel they have a chance to be good.
  • Olney likens the Padres free agent spending this offseason to going into a candy store with 50 cents, only being able to buy one thing. To put it another way, the Padres have a little to spend, but can't miss like the Rays did with Pat Burrell.
  • Marc Normandin Baseball Prospectus highlights the contributions of young talent, such as Everth Cabrera (16.4 VORP), Will Venable (14.9) and Kyle Blanks (9.8). While Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley have disappointed, Normandin points out Kouzmanoff's strong second half. To his credit, Headley goes unmentioned but has tallied a very nice line of .305/.378/.445 in 66 second half games himself.
  • The report suggests fielding offers on Heath Bell in order to allow pursuit of top free agents such as Randy Wolf or possibly even John Lackey and Chone Figgins. Bell's value will never be higher, and according to the report, many in the San Diego area expect Kevin Towers to listen on the All-Star closer. Interesting thought, but it's hard to picture the Padres in serious talks for Lackey or Figgins.
  • Miguel Tejada is also mentioned as a possibility through free agency, to compensate for a lack of power in the middle infield.
  • If what Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has to add to the report is true, the Padres may not be as in need of a frontline starter as some would think. Goldstein quotes one front-office official hailing rookie Mat Latos as a potential ace if his change-up develops more. "Seeing him in person was one of those 'holy [crap]' moments," the official said.

Heyman’s Latest: Jeter, Wagner, Delgado, Lackey

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No team is successful without good coaching and guidance, so SI.com's Jon Heyman pays homage to those who got the job done behind the scenes by naming his ten most unsung heroes of the 2009 season. Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux tops the list, and several other familiar names make an appearance.

Here's the rest of Heyman's rumors…

  • Heyman guesses that the Yankees will resign Derek Jeter for at least $60MM over three years once his contract expires after next season. That's a lot of scratch for a guy who would be entering his age-37 season.
  • The Red Sox have "every intention" of offering Billy Wagner arbitration, and barring something unexpected, Wagner has every intention of turning it down. He's projected to be a Type-A free agent, so Boston would walk away with two high draft picks in that scenario.
  • Out since early May with a hip injury, Carlos Delgado hasn't given up on the idea of playing again this year. The Mets would be happy to accomodate him, because according to Heyman's sources the team has thought about bringing him back on an incentive laden contract. A late season cameo would at least give them a look at what kind of shape he's in.
  • Stop me if you've heard this before: the Mets might consider Orlando Hudson this offseason if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. That's what, three times in the last 24 hours?
  • The Angels tried to sign John Lackey for four years and $60MM last offseason. Given the lack of impact starting pitching available this year, Lackey's price has gone up.
  • In regards to Ken Griffey Jr. and his .214 AVG, Heyman says "this has to be the end, no?" Griffey hasn't said anything about his future yet, though.
  • Kansas City ownership has "often prevented its baseball people from making deadline trades in order to avoid the dreaded 100-loss season." This strategy probably works against them in the long run, but Heyman suggests it may "make them a tougher team than some also-rans who hit the wall."
  • There's no evidence that Lou Piniella is a candidate to be fired (his $4MM option for 2010 has already been picked up), but the question about whether he wants to return or not has to be asked. Sweet Lou's body language did not look good last weekend.

Stark On Free Agent Pitchers

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"I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one," said one general manager to ESPN's Jayson Stark. This year's collection of free agent pitchers doesn't have the star power that last year's CC Sabathia highlighted crop had, or that next year's group led by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee will have, but there will still be plenty of money thrown around.

As Stark explains, club officials seem to be down on available starters this year, describing them as "risky," "weak," "terrible," and "mediocre" among other things. One AL executive said that "There are some guys in this group who are dependable. Except they're dependable to give you 5.00 ERAs and 180 innings. And that's not what you want to build a staff around."

Regardless, Stark ranks the top ten starting pitching options in this year's free agent class. Here's a roundup of his list, with quotes from various sources…

  1. John Lackey: "He's the best name on the list," one exec said. "But if Anaheim shies away from this guy or doesn't make a serious attempt to sign him, I'd have concerns. They know him better than everyone else. So that would send out some serious red flags for me."
  2. Randy Wolf: He's "durable, dependable and left-handed," one GM said. And he's also "two 190-plus-inning seasons removed from any health issues."
  3. Joel Piniero: One GM said "I'd have interest in Pineiro, but I'd never invest multi-years in that guy. Just too inconsistent a track record."
  4. Jason Marquis: "He's having a great year," said an official of one team. "But I'm just not sure how to look at it. Was this a turning point in his career? Or do you look at it as somebody who turned it up and figured it out when he had the most to gain? I really don't know."
  5. Rich Harden: "I'd be scared to death to commit years to this guy," one AL exec said. "He's been used kind of like Pedro [Martinez] was used in the past, where they're always trying to build in an extra day's rest. And he's just a five-inning guy, in the National League. He might strike out 10, but he'll only go five innings, so he still kills your 'pen. He'll get some money. I just don't see anybody giving him more than a year."
  6. Andy Pettitte: One exec described his situation as "will probably either stay in New York or shut it down."
  7. Jarrod Washburn: One GM said, "he's 35 years old, and [before this year] his last winning season was [2004]."
  8. Jon Garland: "He doesn't have the stuff the other guys on this list have, but he's proven he's durable, and durability counts," said an official of one team. "It's like they say in golf: Most putts that you hit short don't go in. Well, most pitchers that don't make a start don't win. This guy at least makes his starts."
  9. Doug Davis: "Made for the NL West."
  10. Brad Penny: An executive said "He's the kind of guy who, if you give him a multiyear deal, he'll crush your franchise. Is somebody going to sign him for four years and expect 120 starts? Good luck."

Stark also names several players he calls "X-Factors," which are guys who could enter the market with major question marks. Included in this group are Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Brett Myers, and Vicente Padilla. We could even add Chien-Ming Wang's name to that list.

Odds And Ends: Lackey, Millwood, Ross

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Some more links for the morning…

  • As MLB.com's Lyle Spencer reports, John Lackey is pitching well at the perfect time for the Angels, who now have a solid rotation one through five. It doesn't hurt Lackey's position as an impending free agent, either.
  • Kevin Millwood's $12MM option for next season will kick in tonight if he pitches 8.0 innings or more. He has 172 innings on the season and the option vests once he reaches 180.
  • It looks like the Rangers will be able to surround Millwood with even more young talent next year. As Jamey Newberg shows for MLB.com, the club has more than its share of promising young players in the minors and, now, in the majors.
  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that Cody Ross earned $25k for making 540 plate appearances on the season. He could have more money coming his way, as he makes the same amount for reaching 570 and 600 plate appearances.

Heyman On Awards, Lackey, Pettitte

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A look at the latest from SI's Jon Heyman…

  • Heyman hands out the hardware, starting with Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols for the MVP awards.  I'll let you click to see his take on the other awards.
  • Heyman says "there hasn't been any hint of negotiations between the Angels and ace pitcher John Lackey."  He believes their initial offer before the season was in the four-year, $60MM range.  Hard to see Lackey leaving a possible $20MM+ on the table.
  • Andy Pettitte will decide on 2010 once he talks to his family in Houston after the season.

Stark On Lackey, Rays, Jeter

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More from Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings column at ESPN.com…

  • One of Stark's sources says the Angels' acquisition of Scott Kazmir is not linked to John Lackey's future.  Lackey is said to have dropped his price from the C.C. Sabathia range ($161MM over seven years) to A.J. Burnett money ($82.5MM over five years) due to his recent injury history.  The Angels will attempt to re-sign Lackey, but they have their limit.  Stark's suggestion that Lackey had a "Sabathia-esque" price tag in Spring Training runs counter to Mike DiGiovanna's report that the pitcher wanted Burnett money at that time.
  • Stark feels that the Rays' trade of Kazmir will help them allocate money toward retaining Carl Crawford and/or Carlos Pena.  Crawford's 2010 club option is worth between $10-11.5MM.  Pena is signed at $10.125MM for '10 and is represented by Scott Boras.  One positive: the slugging first baseman inked a below-market deal in January of '08.
  • Derek Jeter is not talking about his next contract, but Stark feels the Yankees will take care of him.  They may wait until after next season, when Jeter finishes his current deal.
  • Rockies manager Jim Tracy is familiar with Brad Penny, and his opinion might have caused the team to back off.  And the Yankees cooled Jon Garland because they didn't see him as a difference-maker in the AL East.
  • The Marlins were in on Mike Cameron, but the Brewers decided to keep their players and win as many games as possible.
  • The White Sox "wanted something good" for Jermaine Dye, according to one Stark source.  He would not have been as easy to pry away as Jim Thome and Jose Contreras were.
  • A couple of sources are skeptical that the Red Sox will shop closer Jonathan Papelbon this winter.
  • Stark notes that only two players – Ryan Franklin and David Eckstein – signed extensions in-season.  These days it makes more sense to talk during the exclusive negotiation period after the season.  Plus, there were many bargains to be had on the free agent market last offseason.

Odds & Ends: Kazmir, Byrd, A’s, Lackey

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Sunday evening linkage…

  • As noted by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, new Angels hurler Scott Kazmir is already falling in love out West.  "It kind of feels like a playoff atmosphere every time you're here," Kazmir said Sunday. "You have the Rally Monkey, the whole thing going on."  He's under team control until 2012 and will make his Angels debut Wednesday.
  • Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com spoke Sunday with A's manager Bob Geren, who revealed his plan for September's roster expansion.  It has already been confirmed that Brett Wallace will not see major league action this year.
  • Paul Byrd told WEEI.com's Rob Bradford that he wasn't guaranteed a call-up by the Red Sox when they signed him to a minor league deal in early August.  The 38-year-old made his 2009 debut Sunday afternoon, tossing six shutout innings against the Blue Jays.
  • John Lackey earned his 100th career win Sunday with eight innings of five-hit ball against the Athletics.  He heads an intriguing 2010 free agent class.

Odds And Ends: Astros, Mets, Phillies, Wagner

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Links for the afternoon…

Angels Rumors: Abreu, Reagins, Free Agency

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Some Angels rumors, from around the league:

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, who says the Angels are the Yankees' biggest threat, spoke with Bobby Abreu and heard that he wants to return to LA next year. 
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan shows that the Angels, unlike most of their rivals, have managed to hold onto most of the players from their 2006 team.
  • It's not a coincidence. GM Tony Reagins says the Angels hold onto the talent they acquire and try to avoid making drastic moves.
  • The Angels will see Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Chone Figgins and others hit free agency after the season, so they have a franchise-defining winter coming up.

Lackey A Good Fit For Baltimore?

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Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun speculates that pending free agent John Lackey could be a natural fit for the Orioles who are in need of a veteran starter to "help mold a real rotation out of all those promising young arms." This speculation comes on the heels of Lackey's comments from last night's game:

"Honestly they put some pressure on me. They had some traffic on the bases and guys got some hits. I was able to make some big pitches to get out of a couple of innings with no damage, and they've got a nice lineup. They've got some pieces there that are going to be pretty good in the future."

Schmuck does say that he can't imagine the Angels letting Lackey slip away. As it stands, the Angels are waiting until the off season to begin negotiations. In his last 10 starts, Lackey has allowed more than 2 runs only twice with a 66:21 K:BB.

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