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Injury Notes: Ross, Teixeira, Salazar, Soler, Angels

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While Padres righty Tyson Ross is progressing through his throwing program, he is not expected to make it back until after the All-Star game, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. The expectation is that Ross will begin throwing bullpens in a few weeks, and his timeline should gain more clarity once he reaches the mound. A return in mid-July could in theory put him in play at the trade deadline, but it seems increasingly likely that Ross won’t be shopped until after the season.

Here are a few more injury notes from around the game:

  • Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira will forego surgery on his right knee in hopes that he’ll be game-ready in three weeks’ time, as Roger Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be expected at the major league level at that point, as the length of his layoff could require at least a brief rehab stint. The struggling veteran has already been placed on the 15-day DL after being diagnosed with a cartilage tear.
  • Indians righty Danny Salazar will miss his next start due to shoulder fatigue, the club announced. It seems that the hope is it won’t be much more than that, as he’d likely be placed on the DL to free a roster spot otherwise. Salazar’s status remains worth watching, however. The 26-year-old has been outstanding in his first 11 starts. Cleveland will go to Cody Anderson for the spot start. While he’s struggled at times this year in the majors, Anderson has dominated in three Triple-A starts and is as good an insurance policy as you’ll find around the game.
  • The Cubs had to pull outfielder Jorge Soler from tonight’s action due to a hamstring injury, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. He’s headed in for an MRI tomorrow, but it seems as if a DL stint could be in his future. Veteran minor-leaguer Matt Murton could get consideration if that proves necessary, but skipper Joe Maddon also suggested that prospect Albert Almora could receive consideration.
  • Meanwhile, the Angels continue to sort through a host of pitching ailments, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Of immediate concern, set-up man Joe Smith is hoping to stave off a trip to the DL with a hamstring injury. Starters Tyler Skaggs and C.J. Wilson are both in different stages of the rehab process. The former is expected to head out on a rehab assignment after a five-inning extended spring appearance tomorrow. And the latter hopes to re-start a throwing program this week.
  • The Angels are also waiting for some position players, as Fletcher further covers. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (thumb surgery) could return to the majors as soon as Friday; outfielder Daniel Nava (groin) has only just returned to baseball activities; and catcher Geovany Soto (knee surgery) is throwing but has yet to hit or get into the crouch.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Nats, Chapman, Miller, Brewers, Angels

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Here are a few reliever-related items from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link):

  • Despite the presence of Jonathan Papelbon, the Nationals will likely be in the hunt for Yankees closers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller if the Bombers make them available over the summer, Rosenthal reports. The Nats were interested in both as recently as the winter, according to Rosenthal, who cautions that their ownership might not allow the franchise to take on payroll during the season. Both Chapman ($11.33MM) and Miller ($9MM) are expensive, and the Nationals been restricted to cash-neutral trades at recent deadlines.
  • In order to deal closer Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers could require a return similar to the mammoth haul the Phillies received from the Astros for Ken Giles, per Rosenthal. The rebuilding Brewers and Jeffress have built a strong relationship thanks to the team’s role in helping the right-hander overcome his past marijuana issues. Because of that, Jeffress turned down major league offers from other clubs to sign a minor league contract with the Brewers two years ago, Rosenthal relays. In his first season as a closer, the 28-year-old has converted all seven save opportunities while allowing three earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. In 160 2/3 major league innings, Jeffress has compiled a 3.14 ERA to accompany an 8.4 K/9, 3.87 BB/9 and 57.1 percent ground-ball rate. Those are quality numbers, but they’re a far cry from the dominant stats Giles posted before the Astros dealt a Vincent Velasquez-headlined package for him over the winter. Giles is also three years younger than Jeffress, won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2018, and isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2020 season.  Jeffress, meanwhile, has three arbitration-eligible years before he’ll be able to hit the open market.
  • With contention looking unlikely for the injury-plagued Angels, setup man Joe Smith is a good bet to find himself in another uniform in the coming months, says Rosenthal. Smith, who’s making $5.25MM in a contract year, has thrown 155 innings of 2.73 ERA ball dating back to 2014, including 15 frames with a 3.60 mark this season. It’s early, of course, but Smith has fanned only eight hitters this season while generating far fewer ground balls (45.8 percent versus a lifetime 56.4 mark) and surrendering much more hard contact (twice his career rate, in fact, at 49 percent compared to 24.5 percent).

Angels Notes: Smith, Santiago, Left Field, Saunders

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Albert Pujols tops the list of the 25 biggest payroll albatrosses in baseball, as compiled by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski (Insider subscription required).  The Angels still have six seasons and $165MM remaining on their ten-year, $240MM contract with the slugger.  Szymborski figures the Halos needed at least five years of Pujols matching his 2011 production “for this contract to not be a disaster” before the inevitable decline in his last 30’s, but Pujols has hit a comparatively underwhelming .266/.326/.478 and 115 homers over his first four years in Anaheim.  Injuries have played a role in Pujols’ performance, though it’s hard to see him suddenly revisiting his Cardinals-era prime as he enters his age-36 season.  Here’s more about the Halos…

  • Joe Smith tells MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez that the Angels have yet to approach him about a contract extension, which the veteran reliever understands given how the club is busy with other needs.  Smith is a free agent after the season and he’s encouraged about finding another nice contract given how several non-closers (i.e. Darren O’Day, Tony Sipp, Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria) all received healthy multi-year deals this winter.
  • In another piece from Gonzalez, Hector Santiago relates how he spent most of the offseason figuring he would be traded.  The speculation added to what was already a busy winter for the left-hander, who got married in November.  The Angels reportedly received lots of trade interest in Santiago, and his agent even called him in November to say that a trade to the Orioles was imminent.
  • While the three-team deal that would’ve brought Michael Saunders to the Halos is apparently off, Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times notes that the attempted trade revealed that the club is still focused on left field upgrades.  The platoon of Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava is tentatively set to share the left field duties, and while the Halos at least checked in on big-name free agent left fielders (i.e. Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes) this winter, payroll constraints have led them to explore cheaper options.  GM Billy Eppler didn’t specifically state that the Angels were focusing on left field, just saying “I’m looking for any reinforcement at any single position we can find, wherever we can improve this club.”

Moreno: “It Has Never Been About” Luxury Tax

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The Angels have taken quite a bit of flak for a seeming unwillingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold, but owner Arte Moreno strongly denied to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez that he is firmly against exceeding that $189MM threshold. “It has never been about that,” Moreno told Gonzalez. “It has never been with the threshold. …We have a budget, and every year, I’ve overspent our budget.” Moreno says that his operating budget has typically been in the $140-150MM range, but he’s consistently exceeded that mark to the point where he suggested to Gonzalez that the team is barely avoiding debt. Moreno, though, seemingly conceded to the fact that the possibility of exceeding the tax barrier played some role in the club’s offseason, as Gonzalez goes on to mention that the owner “wasn’t confident that the Angels would be able to comfortably get back under the threshold given their potential holes,” which prompted them to pass on high-profile free agents. It would seem, then, that his assertion is that while he wasn’t entirely resistant to the notion of exceeding, the proper situation didn’t present itself this winter. The Angels do have a record payroll for the 2016 season, Gonzalez points out, even with a Craig Gentry/Daniel Nava platoon in left field and Johnny Giavotella/Cliff Pennington in line for most of the second base at-bats. Just as importantly, though, he adds that the Angels are about $2MM shy of the luxury tax threshold at present. Notably, Moreno denied an interview to the Los Angeles Times, as Pedro Moura writes.

A bit more from Gonzalez’s column and several more Angels notes on an evening with plenty of news coming out of Anaheim…

  • Regarding the possibility of eventually looking to trade Mike Trout — a notion that stemmed from a fairly innocuous comment in Keith Law’s farm system rankings at ESPN — Moreno shot down the possibility in definitive fashion. “One hundred percent we are not trading Mike Trout,” Moreno told Gonzalez. “…It’s not even in the thought process.” Honestly, it’s fairly surprising to me that this even reached the point where the owner felt the need to comment, but Moreno’s firm denial merits a brief mention.
  • While the Angels didn’t make the big deadline splash that many fans were hoping for this past July, it wasn’t for lack of trying, Gonzalez tweets. According to Gonzalez, the Halos “tried hard” to pry Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers, but Detroit wouldn’t budge on its asking price of Sean Newcomb. Eventually, the two sides scrapped the talks and, of course, Cespedes was traded to the Mets for right-handers Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. Newcomb was later traded alongside right-hander Chris Ellis and shortstop Erick Aybar to bring Andrelton Simmons to the Halos. For those wondering why the Angels didn’t make a run at Cespedes this winter, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register got the sense that Cespedes preferred the East Coast and didn’t want to sign with the Angels, who would’ve had to drastically overpay in order to sign him (links to Twitter).
  • Another interesting note from Fletcher, who writes in a full column that left-hander Hector Santiago said his agent called him in November to inform him that he was on the verge of being traded to the Orioles. A deal (clearly) never came to fruition. The Orioles are known to have been seeking rotation help all winter, and Santiago was an oft-speculated trade candidate when the Angels were seeking ways in which to bolster their outfield situation. Specific parameters of the apparent near-deal aren’t known, though  if the agent and player are being informed that something is close, that would signify rather advanced discussions.
  • Also within that piece, Fletcher writes that setup man Joe Smith would like to remain with the Halos beyond the expiration of his contract at season’s end, although there have been no extension talks between the two sides. “I would love to (re-sign) but there were a few more important things this winter to be keeping our eye on,” said Smith.
  • Former Angels GM and current Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed his relationship with Moreno and manager Mike Scioscia candidly in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link). Dipoto praised Moreno’s willingness to spend and called Scioscia a likely Hall of Famer, but he admitted that there were challenges. “There were times where it was very difficult to the job that I was asked to do, but that was because I was caught in between, perhaps, two different dynamics,” said Dipoto. “And I would say the same of them. I had some different ideas that maybe they weren’t as comfortable with…” Dipoto went on to say that Mariners ownership has been more receptive to his ideas. “…And, as importantly, I have a manager now in Scott Servais who I do see eye-to-eye with,” Dipoto continued. “We have discussed every move, we have disagreed on many ideas as we’ve gone through this offseason, but in a really productive way. And, fair or unfair, that was not always the case with Mike. … Healthy disagreement is a good thing, and sometimes in Anaheim as you saw played out nationally multiple times over the four years, it wasn’t quite as healthy.”
  • Scioscia was made aware of Dipoto’s comments, Moura notes in his aforementioned column, though the longtime Halos skipper didn’t seem to take much umbrage with anything that was said. “I think there were certainly times that you are not going to agree on everything,” Scioscia explained. “I think there were times when the communication was there, maybe times where it wasn’t what it could have been. But I’m not looking back.” Scioscia said he operated similarly under former GMs Bill Stoneman and Tony Reagins. “I think you have to have that free-flowing of ideas,” he continued. “I think at times, we did.”

AL West Notes: Zito, Smith, Singleton, Gray

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Barry Zito will start for the Athletics on Wednesday in what the veteran southpaw hinted would be his last Major League game, John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group reports.  “So maybe I could pitch next year. But I have a son now, and the travel with a family is pretty nuts. I think about it, but I also know that I was pretty at peace with being done during those nine days,” Zito said, referring to the nine days between the end of the Triple-A season and his callup to Oakland.  “There have been so many last starts for me. I would think this would be the last. Anything could happen still. I haven’t come out and said, ’This is it.’ But that’s something I’ll have to mull over when I’m home-home (that’s Nashville for the next few months) in a week or so.”

Here’s more from around the AL West…

  • Joe Smith is “confident” he’ll be able to pitch again before the end of the season, the reliever told reporters, including MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez.  Smith suffered a sprained ankle on September 19 but has taken part in fielding drills and a bullpen session over the last two days, and he’ll throw another bullpen today.  Smith’s return would be a boost to the Angels relief corps, which has already lost closer Huston Street for at least the rest of the regular season.
  • Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM extension with the Astros before ever playing a Major League game, a deal that at the time was criticized by some current and retired players (including Bud Norris and Mark Mulder) for being far too team-friendly.  Two years into the contract, however, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle notes that the deal is looking more like a mistake on the Astros’ end as Singleton has both struggled and not even collected all that much service time.  Drellich reports from one source that the Astros wouldn’t have made the deal in hindsight if they’d known how Singleton’s 2015 would unfold.
  • The Astros’ strategy of offering multi-year deals to players early (or even before) their MLB careers have begun may have backfired in Singleton’s case, though Drellich notes that Houston avoided more commitments when Robbie Grossman and Matt Dominguez both rejected similar extensions.  The Astros may have already ultimately gotten a good return on this strategy since Jose Altuve’s deal is looking like a bargain, which makes up for other mistakes.
  • The decision to accept or reject such an early-career extension is a fascinating one for any player, as they’re facing possible peer (and union) pressure to “bet on themselves” in hopes of making more in the future, or to accept what’s already a life-changing sum of money and cash in on pure potential.  Drellich speaks to former A’s outfielder Bobby Crosby, who signed a five-year, $12.75MM extension after his Rookie Of The Year season and doesn’t regret signing the deal since his career was hampered by injuries.
  • During an appearance on the MLB Network (video link included), Peter Gammons said he doubts the Athletics will trade Sonny Gray this winter.  This isn’t to say that a deal won’t eventually happen, however, perhaps as soon as the 2016-17 offseason when Gray becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time.  Until then, Gray is one of the game’s biggest bargains, posting top-of-the-rotation numbers at just over a minimum salary.

Quick Hits: Soriano, Indians, Price, Smith

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Rafael Soriano needs 32 more games finished to cause his $14MM club option to vest, but the Nationals closer says that vesting option or not, he wants to return to Washington in 2015, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports.  Soriano would need to get up to the 62-finish mark (a career high) to make it, though with the Nats in a tight pennant race, they’ll undoubtedly need their closer as much as possible down the stretch.

Here’s some more news and notes from around baseball…

  • Scouts for the Indians have been told to focus their attention on Rays minor leaguers, MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo reports, and Cotillo wonders if this could suggest that Cleveland is revisiting talks for David Price.  Cleveland and Tampa discussed a Price trade during the offseason, as Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported, that involved Carlos Santana and Danny Salazar going to the Rays. (Tampa Bay also had interest in Francisco Lindor but the Indians consider Lindor virtually untouchable in any trade.)  A new trade package, Cotillo speculates, could be Santana/Salazar for Price and a couple of Rays prospects, hence the Tribe’s interest in scouting Tampa’s farm system.
  • Also from Cotillo, the Angels made the same three-year, $15.75MM offer to both Joe Smith and Edward Mujica this past offseason and told both pitchers that the contract would go to whichever accepted first.  Smith took the deal first and is enjoying a strong season, even moving into the Halos’ closing job.  Mujica, meanwhile, signed a two-year, $9.5MM deal with the Red Sox and has struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 IP.
  • The Giants are still without agreements for five of their top 10 draft picks, a situation Cotillo believes could be due to the club devoting their time and draft pool resources to signing first-rounder Tyler Beede, who couldn’t negotiate until after the College World Series.
  • Despite the number of recent stars to come out of Cuba, teams are still relying on very little or no scouting information when signing these players, Danny Knobler writes for Bleacher Report.  Knobler’s piece explores the future of the Cuban talent pipeline while also delving into the limited data the White Sox and Dodgers, respectively, had when signing Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig to major contracts.
  • While the Royals’ farm system is still considered strong, it is short on prospects ready to help at the Major League level, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes.  Thanks to a few thin drafts, the prospect package sent to Tampa Bay in the James Shields trade and the fact that many of their top prospects of recent years are already in the bigs, “between Omaha and their [Double-A] club, there’s nobody that looks like they’re going to jump up soon as a significant piece,” an AL executive said.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article719772.html#storylink=cpy

Quick Hits: 2014 Draft, Smith, Headley, Abreu

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Left-hander Brady Aiken and righty Tyler Kolek sit atop Baseball America's list of the top 2014 draft prospects, BA's John Manuel writes.  The two high schoolers have supplanted NC State southpaw Carlos Rodon, who was long considered to be the favorite as the first overall pick but hasn't looked great this spring.  Six of the top seven prospects on BA's list (and 11 of the top 15) are pitchers, as several young arms have improved their draft stock this spring while several of the most-regarded hitters haven't fared as well. 

Here's some more from around baseball as we head into the weekend…

  • High-ranking executives from the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, Cubs and Phillies have all recently scouted Kolek's starts, Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reports.  These clubs hold the top four overall picks in June's draft, while the Phillies pick seventh overall.  According to Manuel, "Kolek has hit 100 mph repeatedly and has the best pure arm in the draft."
  • Joe Smith tells ESPN New York's Adam Rubin (Twitter link) that the Mets were interested in signing him last winter, and "floated" a contract offer similar to the three-year, $15.75MM deal that Smith received from the Angels.  Rubin was surprised that the Mets were willing to commit that much to a setup man, though Smith would've added some quality depth to a Mets bullpen that is already hurting thanks to the absence of Bobby Parnell.
  • Both Chase Headley and the Padres are off to slow starts, which only further complicates the difficult contract-year situation for the third baseman, MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince writes.  With an extension unlikely, Headley could be a midseason trade candidate if the Friars fall out of the race, though if Headley continues to struggle, the Padres could conceivably see him leave for free agency and get nothing in return.
  • The Padres parting ways with Headley is "looking [like] the most realistic option," Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune said during an online chat with readers.  "Players don't get better with age so much anymore, so regardless of what Headley does this year, it doesn't make financial sense to pay for past production," Sanders writes.
  • The Astros made a strong bid for Jose Abreu before the slugger signed with the White Sox, and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow discussed his club's pursuit with MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  "We stretched ourselves further than we intended to and we came pretty close.  When you factor in the tax advantages of Texas vs. other markets, the gap was really only a couple of million dollars at the end of the day," Luhnow said.  "It's one of those things, should we have pushed a little harder? Possibly. When you're in negotiations like that and you're in a bidding war like that, you have to have limits or you'll be the one that overpays. That's one I do think we came close. He's going to be a good player, and that's why we put all that effort into it."
  • The Tigers have been extraordinarily successful in trades since Dave Dombrowski joined the organization in 2001, Grantland's Rany Jazayerli writes.  Given Dombrowski's impressive with not only the Tigers, but also the Marlins and Expos over his long career, Jazayerli thinks it's too early to write off the much-maligned Doug Fister trade as a mistake for Detroit.

NL West Notes: D-Backs, Headley, Boggs, Lopez

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The Diamondbacks announced that they've hired Mike Harkey as their pitching coach and named Mel Stottlemyre Jr. bullpen coach. The 47-year-old Harkey has been coaching for 14 seasons, the past six of which have come with the Yankees on Joe Girardi's staff. Stottlemyre, 49, served as the D-Backs's pitching coach from 2009-10 and has served as the minor league pitching coordinator since. Here's more of the the NL West…

  • Peter Gammons of the MLB Network reports that the earliest the Padres would consider trading Chase Headley is next June. The team doesn't want to sell low on Headley coming off a season in which his OPS+ dropped by more than 30 points.
  • The Rockies have shopped Mitchell Boggs in trades as they attempt to gauge his value before determining whether or not to tender him a contract tonight, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
  • Renck also reports that the Rockies are expected to tender a contract to right-hander Wilton Lopez, despite the struggles he endured in 2013. Lopez posted a 4.06 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 75 1/3 innings for the Rockies this past season after being acquired from the Astros for Alex White and Alex Gillingham.
  • Newly signed Angels reliever Joe Smith told reporters in a conference call that the Dodgers made him an offer on the free agent market but wouldn't guarantee a third year (Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reporting on Twitter). The Dodgers appear to be seeking right-handed bullpen help, as they were also connected to Jim Johnson in trade talks earlier this morning.

Angels Sign Joe Smith

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WEDNESDAY, 10:08pm: Smith's salary will be spread in even, $5.25MM annual increments across the life of the deal, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Smith can earn an additonal $250k annually based on games finished, which essentialy means he'd see a bump if he lands in the closer role.

WEDNESDAY, 6:42pm: The Angels confirmed the signing via press release.

SUNDAY, 9:02am: Smith's deal is worth $15.75MM over three years, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).

SATURDAY, 8:44pm: The Angels are to sign reliever Joe Smith to a three-year deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets. The size of the deal is slightly more than $15MM, Heyman adds in a second tweet. 

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Smith, 29, has been with the Indians since 2009 and is a seven-year major league veteran. The righty has a lifetime 2.97 ERA and turned in a 2.29-ERA, 63-inning campaign in 2013. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto had previously indicated that Ernesto Frieri will return as the club's closer in 2014, so Smith is likely to land in a seventh- or eighth-inning role for the Halos.

The right-hander was widely regarded as one of the best setup men available this winter.  Smith drew a good amount of interest from clubs in need of a bullpen boost, including the Phillies and Rockies.  There was mutual interest between the Indians and Smith in a return, but ultimately Smith wanted more years than the Tribe was willing to offer.

Smith was ranked No. 44 by Tim Dierkes on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list. Remaining late-inning, noncloser relief options include Jesse Crain and Edward Mujica.

Smith must complete a physical next week before the deal becomes official, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).  The reliever is represented by Meister Sports Management, according to the MLBTR Agency Database.

Zach Links contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Breaking Down The Angels’ Joe Smith Signing

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The Angels made the largest relief signing of the offseason so far, committing $15.75MM over three years to right-handed sidearmer Joe Smith.  Any sizeable commitment to a reliever will be poorly received with sabermetric analysts, but did the Angels at least get the top setup man Smith's contract suggests?

Smith may have been paid based on his ERAs for the Indians in the past three seasons: 2.01, 2.96, and 2.29.  Fangraphs wins above replacement, which uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) in its calculation, does not credit Smith for those ERAs, giving him 2.0 WAR over the three seasons.  The main components of FIP are strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, and Smith has excelled in only one of those.  Given his strong groundball tendencies, Smith has allowed just ten home runs in 197 innings dating back to 2011.  Wins above replacement can also be calculated using runs allowed instead of FIP, and that figure credits Smith for a healthy 4.7 WAR over his last three seasons.

The Angels aren't interested in paying Smith for what he did for the Indians; he's getting $5.25MM per year from the Halos in hopes of continued sub-3.00 ERAs for 2014-16.  To see how likely that is, we typically turn to estimators like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, which predict future ERA better than ERA does.  Using Smith's 2011-13 peripheral stats, those estimators spit out figures in the 3.33-3.68 range, well above his actual 2.42 mark.  The estimators are not crediting Smith for one potential skill, though, and that is his consistently low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Smith's BABIPs the last three years were .258, .253, and .282.  His career mark is .272.  Compare that to the average reliever, who was at .291 this year.  Smith seems to be better at keeping his BABIP low than other relievers, which is why he's consistently allowed fewer than eight hits per nine innings since 2008.  Smith's career BABIP against right-handed hitters is .259, versus a more normal .298 against left-handed ones.  This makes sense: he's a right-handed sidearmer, and he is able to induce weak contact against same-handed hitters.  This apparent skill has been magnified by his usage, as Smith has faced right-handed hitters two-thirds of the time in his career.

In 2013, 54 non-closer right-handed relievers pitched at least 60 innings, including Smith.  As a group, they faced right-handed hitters about 55% of the time.  In addition to the aforementioned low BABIPs, Smith has been adept at getting right-handed hitters to hit groundballs.  In 2011, Smith began the transition away from being a full-blown right-handed specialist, but he was still shielded from lefty hitters in 2011-12, magnifying his skills against righties and aiding his ERA.  Only in 2013 did Smith graduate from right-handed specialist to general setup man: he faced right-handed hitters only 50.6% of the time.  Indians manager Terry Francona let Smith face left-handed hitters 128 times, easily the most in his career.  The promotion was overdue, as he hadn't been hit too hard by southpaws since 2010.

$5.25MM a year is setup man money.  The Angels invested in Smith after he posted a 2.29 ERA in 63 innings, truly in a setup role for the first time in his career.  However, Smith's low ERA was not due to the usual factors, a low BABIP and a high groundball rate.  His .282 BABIP was his highest since 2007, and his 49.1% groundball rate was the lowest of his career (the latter owing to his facing more lefties).  Instead, a big factor in Smith's 2013 success was his left on base percentage of 86.3%.  Among relievers with at least 60 innings, Smith ranked 14th in baseball.  Almost everyone ahead of Smith on that list struck out more than 27% of batters faced, while Smith was around average at about 21%.  There's no reason to expect Smith to be much better than the relief league average LOB% of 75% going forward.

If ERA alone doesn't convince you Smith is a top setup man, then it's hard to find a particular standout skill he displayed in 2013.  He's not a strikeout guy, he doesn't have great control (especially versus left-handed hitters), and his groundball rate and BABIP weren't anything special this year.  His ERA was low because he stranded 86% of his baserunners.  The Angels probably don't have a reason to expect that to be repeated, so they're left with a guy whose only above average skill might be inducing groundballs from right-handed hitters.  They didn't need to spend $15.75MM to find a guy who can do that, with Matt Albers and Jamey Wright also on the free agent market.  That's not to suggest Albers and Wright are as good as Smith, but with limited payroll flexibility and a need for two starting pitchers, this signing was a questionable allocation of resources for the Halos.

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