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Joe Kelly

White Sox Place Joe Kelly On Injured List

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The White Sox announced Thursday that reliever Joe Kelly has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow. The move is retroactive to July 5. Fellow righty Nick Padilla was recalled from Triple-A Charlotte in a corresponding move, and the ChiSox also added right-hander Jimmy Lambert as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader.

Kelly’s injury comes with the trade deadline just under four weeks away and as his White Sox increasingly look like sellers. Chicago is seven and a half games out of first place in the AL Central, and while they’ve improved since an awful April, the gains haven’t been significant enough to position themselves as a strong contender. A healthy Kelly could well find himself on the trade market, but this move complicates any efforts to find a taker and, if he’s not back by Aug. 1, could keep him off the market entirely.

The 2023 season has been a mixed bag for Kelly. The right-hander owns an ugly 4.82 ERA in 28 innings out of Pedro Grifol’s bullpen, but his 30.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 12.7% swinging strike rate and huge 56.9% ground-ball rate are all far more appealing. Fielding-independent metrics like SIERA (2.90) and FIP (3.22) feel Kelly’s performance has been far better than his baseline run-prevention numbers would suggest.

Kelly is playing out the second season of a two-year, $17MM contract, so he’s not exactly a bargain even at full strength and peak effectiveness. That contract carries a club option with a net $8.5MM price, which seems unlikely to be exercised at this point given Kelly’s ERA and now a pair of trips to the injured list. (The other was in April due to a groin strain.) He has enough track record that a quick return from the IL and strong finish to the season could change that outlook, however.

For the time being, with Kelly joining Liam Hendriks on the shelf, the White Sox will lean more heavily on the quartet of Kendall Graveman, Keynan Middleton, Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer in late-inning situations.

White Sox Reportedly Only Willing To Trade Rental Players

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The White Sox are potentially lined up to be sellers at the deadline, though exactly how much they commit to that task remains to be seen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that, as of right now, they might only be willing to move impending free agents. Those plans could always change as discussions take place, but it’s a noteworthy stance at the moment. The trade deadline is August 1.

At this point, it’s not even necessarily a lock that the White Sox will be sellers at all. Despite their poor 30-40 record, they are only 5.5 games back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. But the Wild Card race is much stronger, putting them 9.5 games out of a spot there.

A hot streak could get them right back in the divisional race but those have been hard to come by this season and the front office needs to at least consider the possibility that they stay on the outside looking in. Like all clubs, the players on the roster have varied contractual situations that affect the trade calculus. It seems that the club is currently leaning towards trading players on expiring contracts but keeping players with more control in order to take another shot at contending next year.

Even by limiting themselves to a softer sell, they would still have plenty of players to discuss in trade talks. Lucas Giolito, Mike Clevinger, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton are all set to reach free agency this winter and would be the club’s best trade chips. Clevinger’s deal has a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both parties.

Giolito would be one of the top names on the market this summer if he were available, having established himself as a reliable and effective starter in recent years. In each season from 2019 to 2021, he had an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. That figure jumped to 4.90 last year, but that coincided with his batting average on balls in play jumping to .340, well above any of his previous seasons. This year, he’s dropped his ERA right back down to his norm as he’s at 3.54 through 14 starts.

Now 28 years old, Giolito has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He’s now in his third and final arb year, making $10.4MM. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.5MM left to be paid out.

Just about every contender will be looking to bolster their rotation for the final months of the season and the playoffs, which should give Giolito widespread interest. Even teams on the lower end of the spending spectrum could fit that salary figure onto their books, meaning few clubs would be eliminated from the list of logical suitors. That makes Giolito the White Sox’ best chance at recouping some future value from what could end up being a disappointing season.

Some of those other names may have some appeal as well. Clevinger has a 3.88 ERA but with subpar peripherals, striking out 19.3% of opponents while walking 9.5%. A .275 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate are helping him out, with his 4.89 FIP and 5.07 SIERA less optimistic. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year but has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option. He has a bit of an uncertain health outlook at the moment, as he was removed from his most recent start due to biceps soreness. It seems there’s no structural damage, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he might still land on the injured list.

Grandal struggled last year but is having a decent bounce back, hitting .271/.330/.410 so far this year for a wRC+ of 106. Trading catchers at midseason can be tricky since they would then have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. However, Grandal is 34 years old and hits well enough that it could make sense for him to factor into a club’s designated hitter mix, especially since he’s a switch-hitter. The final year of his four-year deal pays him $18.25MM annually.

Andrus is also an impending free agent but his interest will surely be muted as he’s hitting .196/.277/.247 this year. López has a 5.10 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate will surely lead to some intrigue. Middleton’s 1.93 ERA is buoyed by an unsustainable 96.3% strand rate but he is striking out 31.9% of opponents and getting grounders at a 54.5% clip. All three of these players are making modest salaries of less than $4MM this year.

There are also a couple of borderline cases who could be considered rentals. The Sox have an $18MM option on Lance Lynn for next year with a $1MM buyout. His 6.75 ERA this year makes it less likely that gets picked up but it also diminishes his trade appeal. Joe Kelly is in a somewhat similar situation as he can be kept around for 2024 via a $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout. He has a 4.57 ERA but strong peripherals and a 53.7% strand rate, leading to a 2.86 FIP and 2.80 SIERA.

The club also has a $15MM option on Liam Hendriks, though with a $15MM buyout. The only difference is that triggering the buyout would allow them to spread the payment out over 10 years instead of just in 2024. He’s been floated as a trade candidate this summer but he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. Given the injury, the PR hit of trading him away after his feel-good return from cancer and that buyout, it seems likely that he’s with the Sox again next year.

If the Sox ultimately stick to their plan of only trading rentals, that would mean that other speculative trade candidates are off the table. Many observers have wondered if the club would consider moving shortstop Tim Anderson, who can be retained for 2024 via a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Trading him now would be a difficult decision because it would hurt the club’s chances of returning to contention in 2024 and the return would surely be diminished since he’s hitting just .251/.290/.296 this year. Instead of trading him when his value is at a low ebb, there would be sense in the club hanging onto him and hoping for a return to form next year.

Dylan Cease has also been suggested as a trade candidate but that would require the club to really commit to a lengthier rebuild. He still has two more passes through arbitration to go and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2025. His ERA has almost doubled from last year’s 2.20 to this year’s 4.31 figure, but he’s still getting strikeouts at an above-average 26.2% rate. They would surely get a huge haul for him if they decided to move him, but it doesn’t seem as though that’s on the table right now.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

  • Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

White Sox Designate Jake Diekman, Franklin German; Select Alex Colomé, Sammy Peralta

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May 6: The White Sox have requested unconditional release waivers on Diekman following his DFA earlier in the week, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times relays.

May 2: The White Sox announced a massive series of roster moves today, including reinstating infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the injured list. Additionally, they selected the contracts of right-hander Alex Colomé, left-hander Sammy Peralta and outfielder Billy Hamilton, the latter move having already been reported earlier today. To make room for all of those players, righty Joe Kelly was placed on the paternity list, infielder/outfielder Romy González was placed on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, outfielder Óscar Colás and infielder Lenyn Sosa were optioned to Triple-A while lefty Jake Diekman and righty Franklin German were designated for assignment. One spot on the 40-man roster was already open after A.J. Alexy was outrighted last week.

The White Sox have been off to a terrible start this year, going 8-21 as multiple key players have dealt with injuries. It was reported on the weekend that Anderson and Alberto would be coming back today, so those moves aren’t surprising. But it seems the club has decided to use their returns to springboard an incredible roster shakeup, with 11 players involved in today’s shuffling as they try to alter their trajectory.

Diekman, 36, has a lengthy track record of effectiveness in the big leagues but has fallen on hard times in recent years. At the end of 2021, he had a 3.73 ERA through 529 career appearances. His 12.7% walk rate was definitely on the high side but he also struck out 29% of batters faced and got grounders on 47.9% of balls in play. His ERA was a bit high at 4.23 with the Red Sox at the deadline last year when they flipped him to the Pale Hose for Reese McGuire, a player to be named later and cash. Unfortunately, he posted a 6.52 ERA with the Sox the rest of the way and has a 7.94 mark so far this year. He’s walked an incredible 22.4% of batters faced this season, exacerbating a longstanding issue and getting himself bumped off the roster.

The Sox will now have a week to trade Diekman or pass him through waivers but the interest around the league is unlikely to be widespread. Left-handed relief is always in demand but Diekman is making $3.5MM this year and has a $1MM buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024. Given his recent struggles, no team will want to take on that money, meaning he will likely pass through waivers unclaimed. Once he does so, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Also designated for assignment is German, 25, who made his major league debut with the Red Sox last year but changed the color of his Sox via a February trade. Though he got five appearances in the big leagues last season, he spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting a 2.58 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. Unfortunately, everything has gone in the wrong direction since the deal. He has an ERA of 7.15 in Triple-A so far this season, with his strikeout rate having dipped to 26.7% and his walks up to 15%.

One of those roster spots will go to Colomé, 34, who has a long résumé of work in the big leagues, including a previous stint with the White Sox. He has a 3.34 ERA over his career but has seen his results slip in the past couple of seasons. He had a tiny 0.81 ERA in the small sample of the shortened 2020 season but saw that jump to 4.15 and 5.74 in the subsequent campaigns. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals this winter but didn’t make the club out of camp and opted out, jumping to the White Sox on another minors deal. He has a 2.25 ERA through his first 10 appearances in Triple-A this year, but with some good luck seemingly helping him out. He’s stranded 84.9% of baserunners despite an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate.

Also joining the club’s bullpen will be Peralta, which will be a bit of an early birthday present for him, as he turns 25 next week. An 18th round selection in the 2019 draft, he has climbed the minor league ladder in the years since. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.77 ERA in 62 innings, striking out 29.2% of batters faced while walking 8.5%. He has a 3.52 ERA so far this year through 15 1/3 Triple-A innings.

In addition to all that 40-man roster shuffling, the club also optioned Colás. He will still be on the 40-man but it’s notable that he’s seemingly been pushed out of the club’s plans for the time being. He had no major league experience coming into this year but was a bit older and more experienced than a typical prospect since he had already played in the Cuban National Series and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

He was given the club’s everyday right field job this year but has hit just .211/.265/.276 through 25 games for a wRC+ of 51. He was just added to the club’s roster in March and has a full slate of options, which the club will now use to get him some more seasoning in the minors. He hit an incredible .314/.371/.524 in the minors last year, going from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, but only seven of his 117 games were at the highest level. He’ll now head back to Charlotte to work his way back to the majors. This could have ramifications for his service time, since he was previously on pace to get a full year in 2023 but now will end up shy of that once he spends 20 days in the minors, which would push back his free agency and perhaps his arbitration as well.

Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. would normally be in left and center field, respectively, but the latter has been dealing with a minor injury of late. With Colás now optioned out, right field could be shared by some mix of Eloy Jiménez, Gavin Sheets and Adam Haseley, with Hamilton perhaps entering the mix as well.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

White Sox Select Keynan Middleton, Place Joe Kelly On IL, Outright Jonathan Stiever

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The White Sox announced Monday that they’ve placed right-hander Joe Kelly on the 15-day injured list due to a groin strain and selected the contract of right-handed reliever Keynan Middleton. Right-hander Jonathan Stiever was outrighted in order to open a 40-man spot for Middleton. Stiever hasn’t been previously outrighted and doesn’t have three years of MLB service time, so he can’t reject the assignment. He’ll remain with the organization now that he’s cleared waivers.

Middleton, 29, signed a minor league deal over the winter and didn’t initially win a spot in Chicago’s bullpen, pitching to a 6.00 ERA in nine spring innings. He’s opened the year in Charlotte with a trio of scoreless frames, punching out three of the 11 batters he’s faced and also walking a pair.

The White Sox will be Middleton’s fourth big league club. He spent the first four seasons of his career with the Angels, looking at one point like a potential building block in the relief corps in Anaheim. Middleton debuted with 58 1/3 solid innings back in 2017 (3.86 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate) and showed a high-octane fastball that averaged 97 mph.

Middleton started the 2018 season with an even stronger 2.04 ERA in 17 2/3 frames but saw diminished velocity while his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction. He was placed on the injured list in May with what the team discovered some damage in his ulnar collateral ligament. He underwent Tommy John surgery just a few days later. That wiped out the remainder of his 2018 season, and while Middleton returned with a clean 1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 innings the following year, he walked more hitters (seven) than he struck out (six) and was working with a fastball sitting at 94.2 mph.

In the three seasons since, Middleton’s velocity has fluctuated greatly, but his results with the Halos, Mariners and D-backs have been similarly below par. Overall, since returning from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander carries a 4.66 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate that are both worse than the league average. In the aggregate, his post-TJS fastball has sat at 95.6 mph, but that includes year-to-year averages that are all over the map: 94.2 mph in 2019, 97.2 mph in 2020, 95.6 mph in 2021 and 94.8 mph in 2022. Along the way, he’s encountered biceps, elbow and ankle injuries.

As for the 34-year-old Kelly, he’s gotten out to a rough start, yielding three runs on four hits and a walk through his first 2 2/3 innings of the 2023 campaign. He’s playing out the second season of a two-year, $17MM contract that hasn’t panned out as either he or the White Sox hoped. Biceps and hamstring injuries limited the former Red Sox and Dodgers hurler to 37 innings last year, during which he posted an unsightly 6.08 ERA with a career-worst 13.5% walk rate. He’ll now head to the injured list for the third time in just over one calendar year with the South Siders.

Kelly, of course, has a much better track record prior to his time with the ChiSox. From 2017-21, he tossed 229 innings of 3.62 ERA ball, and he was a postseason hero for the 2018 Red Sox, tossing 11 1/3 innings of one-run ball with a 13-to-0 K/BB ratio in the postseason during their march to an eventual World Series title.

Stiever, 26 next month, is a 2018 fifth-rounder who ranked among the White Sox’ best prospects from 2020-21 but has seen his stock tumble in recent seasons, in part due to health troubles. Stiever underwent lat surgery late in the 2021 season and spent nearly the entire 2022 campaign on the 60-day injured list as a result. He’s appeared in just 6 1/3 MLB innings, allowing 10 runs on 11 hits (four homers) and four walks in that time.

Because of those injuries and the lost 2020 minor league season, Stiever still has just 252 minor league innings under his belt. Seventy-nine of those have come at the Triple-A level, but he’s been tagged for a 5.47 ERA in that time. All but five of those 79 frames came during an ugly 2021 season, and Stiever has tossed a pair of scoreless innings so far to begin his ’23 season. He’ll remain in Triple-A and hope that better health brings about better results. If so, he could conceivably work his way back into the 40-man roster conversation at some point.

White Sox Place Luis Robert On 10-Day Injured List

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Luis Robert’s 2022 season is officially over, after the White Sox placed the outfielder on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained left wrist.  Left-hander Tanner Banks was also optioned to Triple-A Charlotte, while outfielder Mark Payton was called up from Charlotte and righty Joe Kelly was reinstated from the medical leave list.

Robert’s wrist has been bothering him since August 12, when he suffered a sprain while trying to steal a base in a 2-0 Chicago win over the Tigers.  White Sox GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including The Athletic’s James Fegan) that Robert’s injury was re-aggravated after he was hit by a pitch on September 6 during a game against the Mariners, which led to Robert receiving more sporadic playing time over the last few weeks.  Three different hand specialists determined that there isn’t any structural damage, Hahn said, but Robert just needs time off to fully heal.

As a result, Robert has been shut down, ending his season with a .284/.319/.426 slash line and 12 home runs over 401 plate appearances.  His wrist problem seemed to sap his effectiveness at the plate, as Robert had only a .414 OPS over his final 47 PA of 2022.

Robert also missed time due to blurred vision and the COVID-related IL this season, and thus played in only 98 of Chicago’s games.  Between his absences this season and the hip flexor strain that cost him a big chunk of the 2021 campaign, Robert has played in only 166 of a possible 324 games since the start of the 2021 season.  When he was able to play, Robert posted great numbers in 2021 and his 2022 production was still solidly above average (112 wRC+), but it still represents a disappointment for a player who has shown glimpses of superstar potential.

The White Sox can only hope that Robert is able to fully heal up over the winter, and is then able to stay on the field for most or all of the 2023 campaign.  Robert’s injury-plagued year is one of but several “if only…” laments South Side fans have about a White Sox season that is looking increasingly like it will fall short of the playoffs.  The 76-75 Sox are on a four-game losing streak, and have dropped to a 76-75 record, falling eight games behind the Guardians in the AL Central and 6.5 games out of the wild card race.

Liam Hendriks Placed On Injured List With Forearm Strain

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White Sox closer Liam Hendriks has been diagnosed with a flexor strain in his forearm, general manager Rick Hahn told reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). He’s been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 11, with Joe Kelly reinstated from the IL to take his place on the active roster.

Asked about a timetable for Hendriks’ return, Hahn noted the club will have to see “how he responds to treatment over the next few days” but added “the preliminary estimate is three weeks.” A return within a few weeks would register as a positive for the club given the ominous diagnosis, as flexor strains can sometimes be a precursor to more serious elbow problems.

Signed to what amounts to a four-year, $54MM free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason, Hendriks has generally been excellent for the South Siders. He posted a 2.54 ERA with an otherworldly 42.3% strikeout rate through 71 innings last season, saving 38 games in the process. He’s collected another 16 saves this year and owns a 2.81 ERA across 25 2/3 frames. The righty’s strikeout rate has taken a step back from its previous heights, but he’s still punching out a very strong 34.6% of batters faced.

Hendriks is one of the sport’s top late-inning weapons. The Sox also lost southpaw Aaron Bummer to the IL over the weekend, leaving manager Tony La Russa a bit shorthanded in the bullpen. Despite having a Hendriks – Bummer pairing at the back end, Chicago continued to invest heavily in relief pitching this past offseason. The front office brought in Kendall Graveman and the aforementioned Kelly on multi-year free agent deals, and that duo plus Matt Foster figure to see plenty of high-leverage opportunities over the next few weeks.

White Sox Place Joe Kelly On IL With Hamstring Strain

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The White Sox announced that right-hander Joe Kelly has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring. Lefty Tanner Banks has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.

Signed in the offseason to a two-year, $17MM deal, Kelly began the season on the IL due to a biceps strain that he suffered while with the Dodgers last year. He was activated just over two weeks ago and is now heading back to the IL due to a separate issue. Through just 5 2/3 innings on the year so far, he has a ghastly 9.53 ERA, though that’s mostly due to a single disastrous outing. On May 12, his second appearance of the year, he was tagged for five earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. Apart from that, he’s allowed just one earned run on the year.

As for his timeline, Kelly told James Fegan of The Athletic that it’s a Grade 2 strain with an estimated recovery time of 3-4 weeks. Despite losing Kelly’s talents, this shouldn’t be a devastating blow for the club as they have many other strong options for late-game appearances, including Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Jose Ruiz.

White Sox To Activate Yoan Moncada, Joe Kelly From 10-Day IL; Aaron Bummer To Be Placed On 10-Day IL

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The White Sox are set to activate Yoan Moncada and Joe Kelly off the injured list for Monday’s game against the Guardians, manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including LaMond Pope of The Chicago Tribune).  Both players will be playing in their first games of the 2022 season, and in Kelly’s case, it also marks his debut in a White Sox uniform.

Moncada suffered a right oblique strain near the end of Spring Training, and it would like the third baseman is back in form, given how he has shredded Triple-A pitching during a rehab assignment.  Moncada will be looking to build on a solid 2021 season that was perhaps slightly disappointing because it was “only” solid, given all of the superstar hype attached to Moncada during his time as baseball’s best prospect.  2019 saw Moncada reach a higher level of performance, though as he enters his age-27 season, it isn’t yet clear if Moncada will indeed become an All-Star.

Kelly signed a two-year, $17MM contract just after the lockout ended, as between Kelly and fellow free agent Kendall Graveman, the Sox reinforced their bullpen depth in advance of Craig Kimbrel being traded to the Dodgers.  Due to a biceps strain suffered during the NLCS last season, Kelly’s offseason prep work was delayed, hence his late start to the 2022 campaign.

With Moncada and Kelly back, the White Sox will gain some relief from the swath of injuries that have hampered their club all season.  However, it’s a case of two steps forward and another step back, as La Russa told reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of The Chicago Sun-Times) after today’s game that reliever Aaron Bummer will be placed on the injured list with a knee problem.  Kelly will take Bummer’s spot on the 26-man roster.

A reliable bullpen arm over his five previous seasons in Chicago, Bummer has gotten off to a slow start, with a 4.91 ERA and 15.1% walk rate over his first 11 innings of work in 2022.  The extra walks certainly haven’t helped Bummer’s efforts, but there is also at least a little bad luck involved, as the grounder specialist has a .370 BABIP.  It isn’t known how serious Bummer’s knee issue is, or how long the left-hander could be out of action.

Rookies Tanner Banks and Bennett Sousa are now the only healthy left-handers in the Sox bullpen, and Anderson Severino (another first-year player) is the only other southpaw reliever on Chicago’s 40-man roster.  While Banks has pitched well thus far, it stands to reason that the White Sox might look to add a more experienced left-handed arm if Bummer is expected to miss beyond the 10-day minimum.

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