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Joc Pederson

Dodgers Defeat Joc Pederson In Arbitration

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The Dodgers have won their arbitration case against outfielder Joc Pederson, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll earn $7.75MM to play in Los Angeles for the coming season, though it remains to be seen which uniform he’ll be wearing.

Pederson had sought a $9.5MM payday after a strong 2019 offensive campaign. MLBTR had projected that he’d earn $8.5MM, but both sides dug in their heels. Arbitration hearings are black-and-white propositions, with the panel simply choosing the number it deems closest to the player’s true value.

All indications remain that Pederson will earn his new salary with the cross-town Angels. But we’re still waiting for a fun intra-Los Angeles trade to be finalized. (That seems likely to occur once another, yet more notable swap goes in the books.) This is Pederson’s final arb-eligible campaign.

Pederson, 27, appears to have been knocked out of the Dodgers’ outfield mix due to the still-pending acquisition of Mookie Betts. But that’s not to suggest that Pederson isn’t an accomplished player in his own right. He carries a cumulative .249/.331/.530 batting line with 61 long balls in 957 plate appearances over the past two seasons. While Pederson carries yawning platoon splits over his career, he’s quite a weapon when deployed almost exclusively against right-handed pitching.

Joc Pederson’s Arbitration Hearing Taking Place Today

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As the baseball world — fans and the industry alike — await the resolution in the potential hangup on the Mookie Betts blockbuster and the finalization of the reported trade sending Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the Angels, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets one possible holdup in the latter of those two deals: Pederson’s arbitration hearing is taking place this morning.

It’s an extremely atypical set of circumstances leading into Pederson’s hearing, as the Dodgers are reportedly in agreement on the framework of a deal that’d send him up to Anaheim at a time when they’re also set to argue his salary with an arbitration panel.

Had the two sides agreed to a swap involving Pederson earlier in the winter, the Angels could’ve prepped for a case in spite of the fact that Pederson has never played a game for them. That type of situation isn’t ideal for clubs but also isn’t unprecedented. As then-Angels-assistant-GM Matt Klentak told MLBTR several years ago in regard to Matt Joyce, whom they’d acquired in an offseason trade (and fortunately signed before heading to an arbitration hearing): “I still haven’t met Matt Joyce. I’ve negotiated his contract with his agent, we’ve traded for him, but I’ve never personally met him. … I’d really have hated for the first time I met this guy to be wearing a suit, sitting across a table, arguing over a million dollars.”

Viewed through that lens and considering the timing of the trade agreement, it’s only logical that the Angels wouldn’t be tasked with making the the case against Pederson’s camp on such short notice. They haven’t had time to prepare an argument for said hearing or even to try to come to terms on a middle ground between Pedesron’s $9.5MM filing figure and the $7.75MM figure submitted by the Dodgers.

Of course, the ultimate price point will in some ways impact how the two teams value Pederson. It’s highly unlikely that the outcome of the hearing will torpedo the trade, but it could determine which secondary pieces the Angels send to the Dodgers to finalize the arrangement. Given that additional layer of complexity, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that an exec with another club “suspects” that MLB is having a third-party lawyer present the other side of Pederson’s case, thus entirely removing the Dodgers and Angels from the equation.

Between Pederson’s hearing and the reported medical snag in the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster, there are clearly numerous balls in the air that need to be accounted for prior to the completion of this series of significant transactions. A ruling on Pederson’s case should be known in the near future — arbitration results are typically known within a day of the hearing — which could bring some clarity to one of the many wrinkles in the Dodgers’ ongoing and extremely complex trade negotiations.

Angels Working To Acquire Joc Pederson

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TODAY: The deal is expected to send righty Ross Stripling to the Halos and also involves other prospects going to the Dodgers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It has yet to be finalized, though, and “a lot of moving parts” remain.

Stripling has quietly been an extremely effective MLB hurler over the years, turning in 387 career innings of 3.51 ERA ball with 8.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. There have been some health issues at times, but the swingman has been quite good when available. He’s slated to earn $2.1MM this year with two more seasons of team control remaining thereafter.

YESTERDAY, 10:30pm: The Angels will also acquire outfielder Andy Pages, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reports. The 19-year-old Pages slashed a phenomenal .298/.398/.651 with 19 home runs in 279 plate appearances at the rookie level last season. FanGraphs rated the Dominican Republic native as the Dodgers’ 29th-best prospect last May.

10:14pm: This trade will include more players, pending medical reviews, Passan tweets. The Angels will also get “a big league starter and a prospect,” while the Dodgers will pick up a prospect along with Rengifo, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

8:54pm: The Angels are set to acquire outfielder Joc Pederson from the Dodgers, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported. The Dodgers will get infielder Luis Rengifo in the deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

This has been a wild night for the Dodgers, who previously struck an absolute blockbuster delivering former Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts and lefty David Price to LA. The Dodgers let go of outfielder Alex Verdugo in the deal and sent righty Kenta Maeda to the Twins in what will go down as one of the most memorable trades in recent baseball history.

This move’s quite an encore for the Dodgers, whose outfield has undergone massive changes in a small amount of time. Pederson and Verdugo were regulars last season, a 106-win campaign for the club, but now the unit’s fronted by two MVP winners in Betts and Cody Bellinger. There’s also the well-compensated A.J. Pollock and depth on hand in Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez and Matt Beaty.

To at least some extent, the Dodgers will miss the 27-year-old Pederson, who has been an easily above-average hitter since his first full season in 2015. Pederson’s now coming off a typically productive showing in 2019, when he slashed .249/.339/.538 with 3.0 fWAR and a a career-high 36 home runs in 514 plate appearances. If there’s one major knock on Pederson’s offense, it’s that the left-hander has struggled versus southpaws, who have held him to an awful .188/.263/.310 line during his time in the bigs.

Now a member of the Angels, Pederson will join yet another jam-packed outfield. The group’s headlined by center fielder Mike Trout, of course, with Justin Upton holding down left field. Brian Goodwin had been the projected starting right fielder before Tuesday, but he looked like a placeholder before the forthcoming promotion of elite prospect Jo Adell. Now, it’s unclear exactly how the Angels’ right field situation will shake out in 2020. Regardless, they’ll tack on approximately $8.5MM to their payroll for Pederson, who’s in his last year of arbitration eligibility. Landing him is the latest aggressive pickup in an offseason that previously saw the Angels add Anthony Rendon, Jason Castro, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015.

In Rengifo, the Angels are giving up a 22-year-old fresh off a promising first season in the majors. The switch-hitter slashed .238/.321/.364 during a 406-plate appearance span in which he mostly lined up at second base. As recently as last February, FanGraphs ranked Rengifo as the Angels’ seventh-best prospect, giving him a chance to turn into a “regular second baseman.” That’ll be a difficult task now for Rengifo, who’s joining a loaded Dodgers team with Taylor, Hernandez, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux as second base possibilities. Rengifo does have two minor league options remaining, however, so it’s not majors or bust for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Outfield Rumors: Puig, ChiSox, Castellanos, Giants, Cardinals

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The White Sox were known to have continued interest in Nicholas Castellanos, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds that Chicago has also been in talks with free agent outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Whether the Sox ink either of these two players could now be in doubt, however, in the wake of yesterday’s reported agreement with Edwin Encarnacion.  At the very least, Castellanos might be out of consideration since there isn’t be an obvious spot for him to play every day, with Encarnacion and Jose Abreu handling first base/DH duties, Eloy Jimenez in left field, and Nomar Mazara playing at least a part-time role in right field.

It isn’t entirely out of the question that the White Sox could try to flip Mazara to make room for Castellanos, though the likeliest option is that Chicago will see if Mazara can still emerge as a reliable everyday player, or at least try to find a right-handed hitting platoon partner for him.  Puig could fit this description, and could potentially still be a target for the Sox on a one-year deal.  MLBTR projected such a one-year pact for Puig, and given the lack of news we’ve heard about Puig’s market this offseason, he could be more open to a platoon situation (that could very well evolve into more regular duty if Mazara struggles again).  The Marlins are the only team known to have shown interest in Puig this winter.

Some more rumblings on the outfield market…

  • While the Giants have been framed as a prime player in the Castellanos market, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports that the team’s portrayal as any sort of frontrunner to win the bidding is “overblown.” The organization does like Castellanos and is more willing to add a youthful free agent on a multi-year deal (Castellanos is still just 27) than a veteran entering his 30s. However, Pavlovic also questions whether the Giants would be willing to put forth a four- or five-year offer for any free agent while in the midst of an increasingly obvious rebuilding effort.
  • The Cardinals remain in the market for an outfielder, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored in his holiday chat with readers this week. Corey Dickerson is at least under consideration, and the team hasn’t bowed out of the Marcell Ozuna bidding yet, either. The Cards’ preference is to have bring in an everyday outfielder as opposed to a platoon bat like Joc Pederson, whom the Dodgers have discussed in trades for a second straight offseason.

Market Chatter: Dodgers, Castellanos, Didi

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With the Winter Meetings upon us, let’s round up the latest chatter on the market to start the morning …

  • The Dodgers could play a fascinating role in the proceedings. As the L.A. front office works on major potential free agent moves, it’s also dabbling in the trade market involving some existing pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter that the club is open to discussing trade scenarios involving A.J. Pollock and Enrique Hernandez, along with the previously rumored Joc Pederson. Pollock just finished the first season of a complicated free agent contract, while Hernandez and Pederson each project to earn significant arbitration salaries in their final seasons of eligibility. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently broke down a potentially complicated offseason for the seven-time defending NL West champs.
  • Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos may be down a suitor, but the news seems to be good. The Marlins are “out of the bidding,” according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter), owing to the fact that the auction ask has “sky rocketed” in the wake of the surprisingly lofty Mike Moustakas deal. Castellanos has always seemed a tricky player to predict. The youthful, bat-first performer might in past years have been a candidate for a top-of-the-market contract. But recent trends have not favored defensively marginal sluggers. We guessed he’d get four years and $58MM; now that Moustakas has topped that guarantee, perhaps Castellanos can be expected to go higher. His market still appears to be taking shape but could conceivably come together quickly over the next few days.
  • Free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius appears “likely” to secure a significant, multi-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman hears that Gregorius could land an average annual value of $14MM to $15MM — which is just what we predicted he’d get (over three years) in our top-50 free agent ranking. It’s still unclear where Gregorius will land. Heyman suggests that the bidding may go too high for the Reds, possibly leaving the Phillies and unknown others to pursue the veteran infielder.

Dodgers, White Sox Have Had “Preliminary” Trade Talks On Joc Pederson

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For a second consecutive offseason, the White Sox are showing some interest in Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Last winter’s talks between the two sides (obviously) didn’t lead to a deal, but the Sox and Dodgers have once again “engaged in preliminary trade talks” surrounding Pederson, per the report.

Chicago’s need for a right fielder is evident just by looking up and down the roster, and GM Rick Hahn has clearly indicated that right field could be an area of focus this winter. Pederson would provide a short-term option for the Sox in that regard, as he’s entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.5MM in 2020.

Pederson, 28 next April, hit .249/.339/.538 in 514 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2019, belting a career-high 36 home runs along the way (although any home run totals from 2019 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the juiced ball and leaguewide home run boom). Both OPS+ and wRC+ regarded Pederson as 27 percent better than a league-average hitter — the third time in the past four years that he’s been to 25 to 28 percent better than average in the estimation of those park- and league-adjusted metrics. For a White Sox club that saw its right fielders post an astonishingly terrible .220/.277/.288 batting line in 2019, Pederson’s appeal isn’t hard to see.

That said, it’s also worth noting that Pederson has been used primarily as a platoon player, so he’s not exactly a cure-all to the White Sox’ ailments in right. The Dodgers afforded Pederson just 50 plate appearances against lefties in 2019, and in 375 career plate appearances against same-handed pitchers, he’s a .188/.263/.310 hitter. The Sox (or any other club) would surely need a right-handed-hitting complement for Pederson in 2020, but a part-time asset in that mold shouldn’t be too tough to unearth.

As for the Dodgers, their motivation for moving Pederson likely comes down to a potential outfield surplus. Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are all viable option in the outfield, and Matt Beaty also saw time in left field after spending most of his minor league career as a corner infielder. Outfielder Kyle Garlick made his MLB debut in 2019 as well.

That’s not to say that Pederson is purely expendable, but the Dodgers’ outfield depth is a clear source of strength. And with Pederson set to hit the open market in a year’s time, flipping him for some help in another area of need — the bullpen, perhaps — while freeing up additional dollars to spend in free agency could be a sensible pursuit. That’d be all the more true were the front office to succeed in signing one of Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson, both of whom are reported to be of interest. A successful pursuit of either premium third baseman could push Justin Turner to first or second base, crowding the right side of the infield and making Bellinger even likelier to spend all of his time in the outfield. (Alternatively, it could make Turner himself a trade candidate.)

Of course, the Dodgers have perhaps the deepest pockets of any club in baseball, so there’s an argument that they should simply keep Pederson, pick up an additional high-end talent or two, and operate with an unparalleled level of depth in spite of the cost. But that hasn’t been this front office or ownership group’s preferred course of action in recent years; the Dodgers haven’t paid the luxury tax since 2016 and are currently about $29MM shy of the $208MM luxury barrier, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Quick Hits: Salazar, Dodgers, Mets, Asdrubal

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Oft-injured Indians right-hander Danny Salazar took a major league mound for the first time since 2017 on Thursday, but it wasn’t a triumphant return. Salazar lasted just four innings, in which he allowed two earned runs on four hits and three walks (with two strikeouts), in a 7-1 loss to Houston. It turns out Salazar was attempting to pitch through a groin issue, Joe Noga of cleveland.com was among those to cover. Salazar, who had been out with shoulder troubles, threw mostly changeups during his 66-pitch comeback and never exceeded 88.3 mph on the radar gun. That’s an enormous drop for a hurler who often overpowered hitters with 95 mph average fastball velocity from 2013-17. Salazar expressed confidence after the game that he’ll be fine, but the Indians will re-evaluate him Friday. It’s a situation that bears watching with the wild card-leading Indians’ rotation now much shallower in the wake of this week’s Trevor Bauer trade.

More on a couple other franchises…

  • The Dodgers’ Joc Pederson first base experiment is over for at least the time being, manager Dave Roberts told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Thursday. The outfielder has picked up 20 appearances at first this year, and during that 149-inning span, Pederson has made six errors and posted minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved. Right fielder Cody Bellinger will now shift to first against right-handed starters, while Pederson will take left, A.J. Pollock center and Alex Verdugo right in those situations. Max Muncy could handle first on occasion versus lefties, according to Roberts (Tyler White manned the position versus Padres southpaw Joey Lucchesi on Thursday).
  • More from Castillo, who writes that just-acquired Dodgers infielder Jedd Gyorko will begin a rehab assignment at the Double-A level Saturday. Gyorko, whom the Dodgers picked up in a trade with the Cardinals on deadline day, has been out since June 8 because of back and wrist issues. He’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list next week, though he’ll first need to amass around 40 to 50 minor league at-bats, per Roberts.
  • Infielder Asdrubal Cabrera enjoyed a successful stint with the Mets from 2016 until they traded him to the Phillies last summer. Cabrera, who signed with the Rangers over the winter, is about to become a free agent after they designated him for assignment Wednesday, but the Mets don’t appear to have interest in a reunion, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. Based on his subpar 2019 production, Cabrera wouldn’t be an upgrade over Mets No. 1 third baseman Todd Frazier. The rest of the club’s starting infield is spoken for with Pete Alonso at first, Robinson Cano at second and Amed Rosario at short, and reserve Adeiny Hechavarria is regarded as a much steadier defensive option than Cabrera.

NL West Notes: Joc, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Giants

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Joc Pederson’s name has been raised in recent trade rumblings, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Los Angeles isn’t close to any deals involving the 26-year-old outfielder. The Dodgers may have lost a suitor for Pederson recently when the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis to a one-year contract with a club option, and for the time being, Pederson looks like he’ll be a key part of L.A.’s attack against right-handed pitching. As Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers’ signing of A.J. Pollock was fueled partly by an internal belief that the team would struggle against left-handed pitching. Pollock figures to line up as the team’s primary center fielder, with Cody Bellinger seeing some time there, in the outfield corners and at first base. Pederson, too, gives the Dodgers a potent weapon against righties, though he’s dreadful historically against lefties — which wouldn’t be as much of a concern (if he is retained) with Pollock in the fold.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Diamondbacks are still looking to add to the bullpen this offseason, general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. It has been a rather quiet winter in Phoenix outside of the franchise-altering trade sending face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. As the D-backs have worked to pare back payroll and embark on something of a soft reset, they’ve made some small-scale moves such as the signing of Wilmer Flores and Merrill Kelly (on top of the MLB-level talent added for Goldy). Plus, of course, the club kicked things off by re-upping Eduardo Escobar just before he hit the open market. Plenty of chatter has focused on the team’s remaining potential trade candidates, particularly in the pitching staff, but it’s not clear whether much possibility of tht remains. Regardless, it seems prudent for the organization to pursue some relief arms, given the course it has taken to this point. Presumably, any ’pen additions would be of the measured variety, as the Snakes gear up for what looks likely to be a still-competitive but mostly transitional year.
  • Meanwhile, Nick Groke of The Athletic takes a look at a sleepy Rockies offseason, which has mostly involved the replacement of the departing DJ LeMahieu with Daniel Murphy. In the subscription piece, Groke describes the Rox’ participation in the market thus far this winter as “an empty freezer more than a hot stove.” The diagnosis, it seems, is a fairly simple one: the club simply doesn’t have the payroll space to pursue more aggressively further upgrades to its lineup. It really is a tricky spot, as the club as presently constituted seems a clear second to the Dodgers in the division. At the same time, there’s a clear opportunity to press ahead due to the vulnerability of the remaining NL West pack and the fact that this is the final season of control over star third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s largely unclear whether GM Jeff Bridich will find a way to further boost the club’s sagging offense this winter, though it seems fair to presume he’s still looking for the right angle — be it a trade or (hopefully) high-value, low-cost free agent acquisition. Boosting the mix behind the plate and in the outfield would make sense on paper; whether it’ll prove feasible remains to be seen.
  • The Giants have far greater uncertainty in their own outfield, though the club is also in quite a different overall stance. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi expressed confidence that the organization would have a suitable slate of outfielders when the time comes. In a statement that helps explain the Giants’ position as well as the overall trajectory of the free agent process, Zaidi explains: “As long as we feel there are good options out there by trade or free agency, the actual pulling of the trigger becomes a little bit less relevant as long as you feel you have some good leads, which I think we do. You don’t want to get in a situation of urgency or even panic.” With the San Francisco organization likely to eschew major, multi-year pacts this winter, it’s certainly understandable that they intend to exercise more patience. It’ll be interesting to see what opportunities might present themselves.

Dodgers Have Discussed Joc Pederson With Multiple Clubs

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Jan. 21: The Braves have also “checked on” a trade involving Pederson, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s still not clear  how many teams have been in contact with L.A., nor is it clear whether there’s any momentum surrounding a potential Pederson deal. However, the connection with Atlanta is only logical. The Braves have an obvious corner-outfield vacancy at the moment, and Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos spent the 2016-17 seasons as the Dodgers’ vice president of baseball operations before accepting his current position.

Jan. 20: The Dodgers are discussing outfielder Joc Pederson in potential deals, and the White Sox are among the teams they’re talking to, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s unclear, though, whether the two sides are making progress in those conversations.

Speculatively, trading Pederson could further open up room in LA for free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock, whom the team is pursuing. And essentially swapping the lefty-swinging Pederson for the right-handed Pollock would enable the Dodgers’ lineup to become more balanced, which is reportedly among their offseason objectives. At the same time, though, waving goodbye to Pederson would mean losing a productive, affordable player who’s under arbitration control through the 2020 season. He’ll earn a reasonable $5MM this year after avoiding arbitration earlier this month.

While the 26-year-old Pederson has never been effective versus left-handed pitchers, who have held him to a woeful .181/.266/.317 line since he debuted in 2014, it has been a different story against righties. Most recently, Pederson posted an overall .248/.321/.522 line (126 wRC+) in 2018 with 25 home runs and 2.7 fWAR over 443 plate appearances. Despite his limitations against same-handed hurlers, Pederson has approached or exceeded 3.0 fWAR in three of the past four seasons. That type of production would be welcome in Chicago, whose outfield ranked dead last in fWAR (minus-1.2) in 2018. The unit has since lost one of its regulars, now-Ray Avisail Garcia, who was merely a replacement-level player last season, though it did add Jon Jay in free agency. Jay had a subpar 2018 in his own right, however, and hasn’t offered particularly strong production over the past few years.

Jay’s now part of a group which also includes Daniel Palka, Adam Engel and Leury Garcia, though all three of those outfielders registered underwhelming results last year. Fortunately for the White Sox, they do have a premier outfield prospect in Eloy Jimenez, whom they figure to promote early in the season and who could make a significant impact from the get-go. But Jimenez’s presence isn’t going to prevent the White Sox from trying to upgrade elsewhere in the grass, evidenced by their interest in Pederson and their pursuit of free-agent standout Bryce Harper.

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