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Jimmy Nelson

Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

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We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.

Dodgers Shut Down Jimmy Nelson’s Throwing Program

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Dodgers right-hander Jimmy Nelson has been shut down for the time being after experiencing a setback following yesterday’s bullpen session, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Nelson has been dealing with back and groin pain early in camp and felt renewed discomfort in his groin after the session. There’s no timetable set for him at present.

Nelson, 30, was a known health risk at the time he signed a heavily incentive-laden deal — a reality that was reflected both in his relatively modest $1.25MM guarantee and the $1MM bonus he’d receive simply for making the Opening Day roster. Nelson’s contract also contains $500K bonuses for spending 45 and 90 days on the active roster, as well as another $1.5MM of unlockable bonuses based on innings pitched. The deal’s low-cost, $2MM team option would become a $5MM mutual option if Nelson is on the mound enough, and the base of that option can also rise based on his innings totals.

Suffice it to say, the Dodgers knew that Nelson was a risky but high-upside signing when handing out that $1.25MM guarantee. The right-hander didn’t pitch at all in 2018 due to late-2017 shoulder surgery, and he was slowed by elbow and shoulder troubles in 2019. Overall, he’s pitched just 22 MLB innings since undergoing surgery in Sept. 2017.

A healthy Nelson, though, is a highly intriguing addition to any pitching staff. During that 2017 campaign, he racked up 175 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball (3.05 FIP) with 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 0.82 HR/9. A former second-round pick and top 100 MLB prospect, Nelson has a strong pedigree, terrific numbers in the upper minors and, in 2017, looked to be emerging as a high-quality arm with the Brewers.

Whether he’ll deliver on any of that potential with the Dodgers remains to be seen. For now, he’ll focus on rehabbing what he and the club hope to be minor issues in an effort to contribute in any way possible with his new club. The Dodgers currently boast a deep rotation mix with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Alex Wood and Julio Urias likely in the top five. Ross Stripling, and top-notch prospects Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are among the plentiful depth options L.A. has cultivated, although May has been slowed by some injury troubles of his own and hasn’t thrown since the first day of camp. As such, Nelson seemed likelier to emerge as a bullpen option, but he’ll need to get back up to strength before he’s an option in either role.

Quick Hits: Soler, Pirates, Mariners, Cardinals

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The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler avoided arbitration Friday, agreeing to a $7.3MM salary for 2020. That doesn’t preclude the club from signing Soler to a contract extension, though, and general manager Dayton Moore suggested there’s interest in locking up the soon-to-be 28-year-old slugger for the foreseeable future (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). “Just because we exchange numbers doesn’t mean we can’t eventually do a multiyear deal,” Moore told Flanagan. “There’s no deadline on that.” Moore added that new owner John Sherman “has been extremely supportive in our vision to sign our young players to long-term deals.” Soler, a much-ballyhooed prospect when he signed with the Cubs out of Cuba in 2012, truly came into his own last season during a 48-home run campaign. And the Royals have Soler’s rights through 2021, so there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a long-term arrangement. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a potential extension for Soler back in September.

Here’s more from around the majors…

  • The Pirates have shown “at least modest interest in the third-base market,” Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. It seems adding a stopgap to help serve as a bridge to the Ke’Bryan Hayes era is possible. Speculatively, the likes of Brock Holt (a former Pirate whom new general manager Ben Cherington knows from Boston), Todd Frazier, Matt Duffy and Logan Forsythe are among the types who could interest Pittsburgh. But at least a couple of those players were no better in 2019 than incumbent starter Colin Moran, who was merely a replacement-level player across 503 plate appearances.
  • Right-hander Jimmy Nelson inked a one-year, $1.25MM contract with the Dodgers earlier in the week, but they had competition from Seattle. Nelson was someone the Mariners targeted, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. He fit the profile of the low-risk, potentially high-reward type of starter the rebuilding Mariners seem to be seeking this offseason. They already landed Kendall Graveman several weeks ago, and have since shown interest in old friend Taijuan Walker. Johns highlights more possible options for the M’s in his piece.
  • Cardinals outfielder/infielder Rangel Ravelo drew interest from a Korea Baseball Organization club earlier this offseason, but he’s staying put, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. The 27-year-old Ravelo debuted in the majors last season, though he only collected 43 plate appearances and batted an unimposing .205/.256/.410. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are bullish enough on Ravelo that he has a legitimate chance to crack their 26-man roster this year, Goold suggests.

Dodgers Sign Jimmy Nelson

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6:35pm: The Dodgers have announced the signing.

9:45am: The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earnings, including a vesting/mutual option for another season, according to Castillo, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).

Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.

As for the option, it will start out as a $2MM club option with a $500K buyout that makes up the remainder of the guaranteed cash. If Nelson throws sixty innings and/or makes forty appearances, it’ll convert to a $5MM mutual option. That price can reach as much as $9MM if Nelson throws 170 frames for Los Angeles in the coming season.

Once a foundational player in Milwaukee, Nelson was non-tendered by the Brewers in December when the club deemed his projected $3.7MM salary too steep. That decision came on the heels of two injury-ruined campaigns.

Nelson did get back on the hill in 2019 after missing the entirety of the prior season, but allowed 17 runs over 22 frames. While he racked up 26 strikeouts in that span but also coughed up 17 walks and four long balls.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of Nelson, who’s now thirty years of age. He exhibited a fairly significant velocity loss but still sat at around 93 mph in 2019. He dove in both first-strike rate (50.5%) and chase rate (23.6%), suggesting some reduction of command, pitch quality, and/or confidence. But Statcast still identified well-above-average spin on Nelson’s pitches.

It will be interesting to watch whether Nelson can return from the shoulder and elbow woes that derailed his career. It’s equally fascinating to see another upside pitching play from a Dodgers organization that has otherwise remained quiet this winter. While the club continues to explore major additions, it has yet to pull off a big strike this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Non-Tender Travis Shaw, Jimmy Nelson, 3 Others

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The Brewers have non-tendered a host of prominent players, per a club announcement. Third baseman Travis Shaw, righties Junior Guerra and Jimmy Nelson, southpaw Alex Claudio, and infielder Tyler Saladino are all being dropped from the roster.

That’s quite a lot to take in for the Milwaukee faithful. The organization has already seen several major players depart via free agency and will now bid adieu to a host of notable veterans.

There’s some major cost savings to be tabulated here. Shaw ($4.7MM), Guerra ($3.5MM), Nelson ($3.7MM), Claudio ($2.2MM), and Saladino ($1.0MM) were projected by MLBTR to earn a combined $15.1MM.

It’s also a pretty substantial outflow of talent. The club has relied heavily upon several of these players in recent campaigns. And some appeared to be solid values even at the estimated arb price tags.

The Brewers tried to hang onto Shaw, but weren’t able to work out a deal in advance of the deadline. Miserable as his 2019 season was, he was a well-above-average hitter and thirty homer contributor in each of the prior two campaigns.

Guerra and Nelson each provided the Brewers with a lot of good innings over the years. The former had quite a bit of success at times as a starter and was a solid relief contributor last year, though the club obviously felt it could do better for its money. Nelson probably would be the staff ace were it not for major arm injuries.

The Brewers rode Claudio hard last year, putting the groundball-heavy hurler in over half of the team’s games. Pending rule changes requiring every reliever to face three batters may have reduced his appeal, as Claudio was hit hard by righties in 2019. As for Saladino, the team hung on to him for some time but never really found him a niche. He’s coming off of a strong offensive year at Triple-A.

Brewers Activate Nelson, Suter; Designate Wilkerson, Stokes

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The Brewers announced they have reinstated right-hander Jimmy Nelson and left-hander Brent Suter from the 60-day injured list. To create 40-man roster space, the club has designated right-hander Aaron Wilkerson and outfielder Troy Stokes, Jr. for assignment. The club also confirmed the previously-reported designation of right-hander Jeremy Jeffress.

Nelson, the former staff ace, has worked out of the bullpen on rehab, where he’ll presumably factor in down the stretch. He’s battled velocity loss and ineffectiveness in the wake of 2017 shoulder surgery. Suter, too, figures to work in short stints as he returns from 2018 Tommy John Surgery. He’s worked primarily as an opener on rehab, although he did work his way up to four innings in his most recent minor-league start. The soft-tossing lefty was a solid back-end command artist for the club before going under the knife, which would be valuable for a rotation that has undergone its fair share of struggles in 2019.

To welcome back the veterans, Milwaukee cuts bait with Wilkerson and Stokes. Wilkerson’s a 30 year-old swingman whose logged 35.2 subpar innings for the club the past three seasons. He has long been an adequate high minors starter though, explaining why he’s lasted three years on Milwaukee’s 40-man.

Stokes, a former fourth-round pick, has emerged as a noteworthy prospect in Milwaukee’s system the past few seasons. Featuring above-average raw power and speed, per Fangraphs’ prospect duo, Stokes had generally shown solid power and walk rates in the low minors. He hit a speed bump in his first taste at Triple-A, though, where his .233/.341/.385 line was 20% below PCL average. That proved too much for Milwaukee’s taste for a player who has increasingly seen time in left field, not center, in recent years, likely due to a below-average arm. That said, it’s easy to imagine a non-contender taking a chance on Stokes’ physical gifts and pre-2019 track record, so it’s possible, if not likely, he’ll be claimed off waivers. He comes with two additional option seasons, so there’d be no hurry to get him to the big leagues before he’s ready.

Health Notes: Story, Kluber, Tigers, Brewers, Royals, Jays

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Rockies shortstop Trevor Story will start a Triple-A rehab assignment Saturday, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays. It’ll be a two-game rehab stint for Story, whom the Rockies placed on the injured list June 20 with a right thumb issue. It seems Colorado dodged a bullet in this instance with the all-important Story, who missed a large portion of the 2016 campaign with a torn UCL in his left thumb.

  • Indians ace Corey Kluber has received clearance to begin a throwing program, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. The venerable Kluber has been out since suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm May 1. Kluber’s absence, not to mention the other adversity the Indians have faced this season, has left the three-time reigning AL Central champions out of the playoff picture at the 80-game mark. They’re eight games back of the division-leading Twins and a half-game out of a wild-card spot.
  • The Tigers put righty Spencer Turnbull on the injured list Friday with shoulder fatigue after he departed Thursday’s start early. The team plans to welcome Turnbull back after the All-Star break, according to Jason Beck of MLB.com. That Turnbull seemingly isn’t dealing with a serious injury is undoubtedly a relief to Detroit, which has seen the 26-year-old post terrific production as a rookie this season. Turnbull has pitched to a 3.31 ERA/3.91 FIP with 8.43 K/9, 3.41 BB/9 and a 49 percent groundball rate in 89 2/3 innings.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve placed Jimmy Nelson on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 26, with a right elbow effusion. It’s an issue that has bothered Nelson since spring training, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets, and may help explain his 2019 struggles. Nelson made his season debut June 5 after sitting out since September 2017, when he underwent surgery on a torn shoulder labrum. The 30-year-old has since allowed 13 earned runs on 18 hits and 14 walks (with 15 strikeouts) in 14 innings. The Brewers pulled Nelson from their rotation last weekend.
  • Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi will begin a rehab assignment at the Double-A level Saturday, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star tweets. Mondesi has been on the IL since June 19 with a groin injury. Prior to that, the 23-year-old batted .269/.302/.441 (91 wRC+) with six home runs, 27 stolen bases on 30 tries and 2.1 fWAR in 312 plate appearances.
  • Blue Jays lefty Ryan Borucki will need at least three to four minor league rehab starts before making his 2019 major league debut, manager Charlie Montoyo said Friday (via Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com). Borucki’s not on track to rejoin Toronto until the end of July as a result. Elbow problems have kept the 25-year-old Borucki from building on an encouraging 2018 rookie campaign. The starter turned in a 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP with 6.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 97 2/3 frames last year.

Brewers Move Jimmy Nelson To Bullpen

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Today, 1:00 pm: Nelson will indeed move to the bullpen, per mlb.com’s Adam McCalvy. The team has not yet announced a replacement.

Friday, 8:00 pm: Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson is back in action for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2017, but it hasn’t been a storybook return to this point. The team’s now discussing whether to keep Nelson in its starting rotation, according to manager Craig Counsell (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Nelson came back June 5 and has since endured a difficult three starts, all of which lasted between three and five innings and ended in defeat for the Brewers. The 30-year-old has thus far yielded 13 earned runs on 16 hits and 10 walks (against 13 strikeouts) in 12 frames during his major league comeback. Adding to the bad news, Nelson’s velocity is down across the board since 2017. He has lost around 3 mph on his four-seam fastball, slider and curve.

An emotional Nelson called his early season performance “frustrating, upsetting and disappointing” when speaking with Haudricourt and other reporters, though he’s still confident he’ll return to form. Nelson blossomed into a front-end starter two years ago, when he turned in 175 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/3.05 FIP ball with 10.21 K/9, 2.46 BB/9 and a 50.3 percent groundball rate. It’s far too soon to say that version of Nelson won’t reappear eventually. However, given that Milwaukee’s pushing for a playoff spot, it may not be in position to keep running Nelson out there.

The problem for the Brewers is that they might not have an obvious solution to replace Nelson. Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies, Gio Gonzalez and Chase Anderson have been useful members of their rotation, though Gonzalez has been on the injured list for three weeks and may not return until July. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser have each posted unattractive numbers as starters this year. Chacin’s the lone member of the group who remains in the Brewers’ rotation. The rest are in their bullpen.

With the Brewers not getting enough from their starting staff, the reigning NL Central champions have stumbled of late. Although they’ve lost six of seven, the Brewers are 40-35, in wild-card position and only a game behind the Cubs in their division. Still, barring an in-house fix, Milwaukee may have to address its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline in order to clinch another playoff spot.

Brewers Call Up Jimmy Nelson From Triple-A

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TODAY: Nelson has been officially recalled, as per the Brewers’ official Twitter feed.  Righty Taylor Williams was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

SUNDAY: Jimmy Nelson will make his long-awaited return to the majors on Wednesday, as Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that Nelson will be promoted from Triple-A to start the Brewers’ game against the Marlins.

Wednesday happens to be Nelson’s 30th birthday, making it double the cause for celebration as the right-hander will appear in a Major League game for the first time since September 8, 2017.  At the time, Nelson was in the midst of a breakout season that saw him post a 3.49 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 4.15 K/BB rate over 175 1/3 innings, numbers that earned him a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Labrum surgery put Nelson on the shelf, however, and the recovery process lingered long enough that hopes of a midseason return (or even a late-season return to boost the Brewers’ pennant run) in 2018 were dashed.  Through the long rehab, a couple of setbacks due to soreness, extended Spring Training outings, and five recent appearances for Triple-A San Antonio to further regain his game-readiness, Nelson is finally set to take the ball for Milwaukee.

The return could hardly come at a more opportune time for the Brewers, who lost both Gio Gonzalez (arm fatigue) and Jhoulys Chacin (back strain) to the IL within the last two days.  Needless to say, the team will surely be careful about managing Nelson’s workload, and return to his 2017 form may be optimistic, but Nelson should be a boost to a Milwaukee rotation that has been looking for consistent results.  Brandon Woodruff and Zach Davies have been solid all year, with Gonzalez and Chase Anderson playing increasingly large roles over the course of the season, though the Brew Crew has again been leaning on its deep bullpen to carry the pitching load as the team battles for the NL Central title.

How Nelson holds up in the coming weeks will be a factor in the Brewers’ trade deadline plans, as pitching depth would surely seem to be an obvious need perhaps even if Nelson does perform well.  It should be noted that the Brewers have been linked to Dallas Keuchel’s market, though Milwaukee will be one of many teams vying for the free agent starter once Keuchel loses the compensatory draft pick (via the qualifying offer) attached to his services tomorrow.  If Keuchel proves to be too pricey, the Brewers could explore lower-cost options in trades.

Brewers Reinstate, Option Jimmy Nelson

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In something of a surprise move, the Brewers announced today that they have reinstated Jimmy Nelson from the injured list and optioned him to Triple-A. He is finally back to health after a long layoff but won’t come straight up to the majors.

It seems that Nelson wasn’t deemed quite ready for the MLB rotation. It could be that the team also prefers to option him to maintain roster flexibility, though it’s tough to imagine they’d hold him down if he looked to be in top form. Nelson allowed ten earned in 19 rehab frames at Triple-A, posting a 22:9 K/BB ratio.

There had been some suggestion that Nelson could be brought back in a relief capacity if the club decided not to plug him in as a starter. Instead, he’ll keep working at the club’s top affiliate — presumably as a starter, though that’s not yet clear.

It’s surely a tough pill to swallow for the soon-to-be-30-year-old pitcher, who was closing in on a return to the big leagues after missing all of 2018 following labrum surgery. Before his injury, he had turned in a breakout 2017 effort, with 175 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball on the back of 10.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.

Nelson entered the present season with 4.107 years of MLB service and has accrued 57 days this year while working back. That leaves him shy of topping five full years of service, which occurs at 172 days, though he’ll pass that bar rather quickly if and when he is called up.

That’s not to suggest that the Brewers are acting with service-time motivations. The club spent $3.7MM last year and this year to retain the rights to Nelson and would surely prefer to see that investment turn into MLB results.

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