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Notes & Rumors: Dyson, Romo, Twins, Brewers, Dodgers

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There’s “a lot of trade interest” in Diamondbacks outfielder Jarrod Dyson, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. We already know the Cubs are among the teams that have eyed Dyson. It’s not clear, though, whether the Diamondbacks – who are in the wild-card hunt – will trade the 34-year-old. Dyson, who’s in the last season of a two-year, $7.5MM contract, has enjoyed a considerable bounce-back campaign with the bat. He’s still not much of a threat offensively, having hit .250/.332/.360 (83 wRC+) in 298 plate appearances, but the fleet-of-foot Dyson’s exemplary defense-base running combination gives him a high floor and could help someone in the postseason.

  • The Twins, continuing their wide-ranging search for relief help, have shown interest in Marlins closer Sergio Romo, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio tweets. The soft-tossing, 36-year-old Romo has pitched well for the Marlins since he joined them on a $2.5MM guarantee last winter, making him a strong bet to depart by the trade deadline. Romo has recorded a 3.58 ERA/3.89 FIP over 37 2/3 innings, also adding 7.88 K/9, 3.11 BB/9 and 17 saves in 18 opportunities.
  • The injury that forced Brewers righty Jhoulys Chacin to the IL on Thursday is a lat strain – not an oblique strain, as was previously believed – per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The Brewers expect Chacin to miss two to four weeks. After back-to-back productive seasons, the 31-year-old has managed an awful 5.79 ERA/5.69 FIP across 88 2/3 innings in 2019. Chacin’s struggles, not to mention his injury, are among the reasons the Brewers could bolster their rotation ahead of the deadline.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Casey Stern of MLB Network Radio on Friday that Will D. Smith will take the reins as their primary catcher going forward. The Dodgers recalled the well-regarded Smith from Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday and sent their previous No. 1 backstop, the slumping Austin Barnes, to the minors. Smith, 24, is now teaming with the grizzled Russell Martin to comprise the Dodgers’ catchers. Martin started LA’s win over Washington on Friday, but the plan is for Smith to handle the Dodgers’ next two games.
  • More on the Dodgers, who sent corner infielder David Freese to the IL on Friday with a left hamstring strain. The move made room for just-acquired first baseman Tyler White. It seems especially inauspicious that Freese went to the IL with the same injury just over a month ago. It cost him a minimal amount of time then, but it’s unclear whether that will be the case again. When healthy, the 36-year-old has been one of the Dodgers’ most effective hitters, albeit in a limited role. Through 163 trips to the plate, Freese has slashed a tremendous .300/.399/.579 (157 wRC+) with nine homers.

Brewers Place Jhoulys Chacin On 10-Day Injured List

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TODAY: The Brewers have officially announced Chacin’s IL placement.  A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow.

YESTERDAY: Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on his way to the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. It’ll be the second IL stint of 2019 for Chacin, who previously missed time with a lower back strain.

When healthy, the 31-year-old Chacin has been a major disappointment for the reigning NL Central champion Brewers, which is one of the reasons why they’re out of a playoff spot right now. At 54-50, they’re two games behind the division-leading Cubs and one back of the NL’s second wild-card spot. Chacin helped guide the Brewers to a playoff spot a year ago, but he has pitched to a woeful 5.79 ERA/5.70 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 3.96 BB/9 and a 37.4 percent groundball rate in 88 2/3 innings this season.

Chacin’s struggles are among the reasons Milwaukee’s a prime candidate to acquire rotation help in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. General manager David Stearns downplayed the possibility Tuesday, but the Brewers are now without two starters in Chacin and their No. 1, Brandon Woodruff. Worsening the Brewers’ situation, their main healthy options – Zach Davies, Chase Anderson and Gio Gonzalez – don’t inspire a great deal of confidence.

Health Notes: Angels, Gordon, Brewers, M. Kemp, Reds

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The Angels appear likely to activate left fielder Justin Upton sometime during their upcoming road trip from June 13-23, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register suggests. Upton, out all season because of a toe injury, began a rehab assignment last Friday. Meanwhile, injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “progressing quickly” and may start taking live at-bats soon, per Fletcher. Simmons hasn’t played since May 20 because of a Grade 3 left ankle sprain.

  • The Mariners activated second baseman Dee Gordon from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, the team announced. They optioned righty Matt Festa to Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding move. Gordon’s back after missing 19 games with a right wrist contusion. The 31-year-old trade candidate is off to a .280/.309/.366 start (85 wRC+) with three home runs and 12 steals on 14 attempts across 177 plate appearances.
  • Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on track to return during their series in San Diego, which runs from June 17-19, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Chacin has been on the IL since June 2 with a lower back strain. Before that, he struggled to build on last season’s quality performance, logging 58 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.75 FIP ball with 6.83 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.
  • Mets minor league outfielder Matt Kemp is dealing with lingering effects of a broken rib he suffered in April, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets placed Kemp on the minor league IL as a result. The 34-year-old Kemp settled for a minors pact with the Mets on May 24, three weeks after Cincinnati released him. Kemp slashed a brutal .200/.210/.283 (23 wRC+) in 62 plate appearances with Cincy and hasn’t been much better as a member of the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. So far, Kemp has hit .235/.278/.324 (52 wRC+) in 36 tries at the minors’ top level.
  • Reds righty reliever Robert Stephenson began a Triple-A rehab stint Tuesday, according to the team. Stephenson went to the IL on May 31 with a cervical strain. Once a well-regarded starting pitching prospect, Stephenson looked as if he was emerging as a credible reliever before his injury. In his first full-time look out of the bullpen, the 26-year-old has notched a 3.96 ERA/2.58 FIP with 12.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 25 innings.

Brewers Place Jhoulys Chacin On 10-Day Injured List

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The Brewers announced that right-hander Jhoulys Chacin has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back strain.  Catcher Jacob Nottingham is also headed down to Triple-A, while right-handers Jacob Barnes and Taylor Williams have been recalled from Triple-A to fill the two open spots on the 25-man roster.

Chacin was an quietly effective staple of the Brewers’ pitching staff in 2018, posting a 3.50 ERA over 192 2/3 innings in the regular season and then another 12 1/3 frames of 1.46 ERA ball during Milwaukee’s postseason run.  That effectiveness, however, hasn’t carried over to 2019, as Chacin has been hit hard this season.  The righty has a 5.74 ERA, 6.8 K/9, and 1.52 K/BB rate over 58 innings, with ERA indicators and contact rates (.352 xwOBA to a .343 wOBA) suggesting that his poor ERA is no mirage.

Never a hard-thrower or one to miss many bats, Chacin’s modest strikeout rate has dipped in 2019 while his hard-contact rate has rocketed up to 43.4%, a marked increase over his 36.6% total from 2018.  Chacin has also seen a decrease in grounders, and an increase in walks, fly balls, and home runs.

The Brewers have now lost two starters to injury in as many days, after Gio Gonzalez was placed on the IL yesterday with a dead arm.  No timeline is known for either Gonzalez or Chacin, as both hurlers have the type of hard-to-diagnose issues that could linger beyond the 10-day minimum stay on the injured list.  The Brewers would fill that void with a major reinforcement in Jimmy Nelson, as the right-hander will return after missing over a full season to start Wednesday’s game.  Beyond Nelson, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that Freddy Peralta is likely to receive a spot start in the coming days.

Brewers Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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TODAY: The contract is now official. It’s for $15.5MM, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter links), with a $1.5MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $8MM and $6MM.

YESTERDAY, 1:49pm: The sides are working to finalize a two-year pact for something approaching $8MM annually, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). That’s right around the contract value that MLBTR suggested entering the winter.

11:19am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent righty Jhoulys Chacin, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the prospective deal are not known at this time. Chacin is a client of the Legacy Agency.

Jhoulys Chacin | Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Chacin, 30 next month, is fresh off one of the best seasons of his career, having notched a 3.89 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate over the life of 180 1/3 innings with the Padres, who signed him to a modest one-year commitment last offseason. Chacin’s strong output in 2017 positions him to handily top the $1.75MM guarantee he received in San Diego last winter. He’d join a Brewers rotation that will be without top starter Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 campaign following September shoulder surgery.

Assuming the deal is ultimately completed, Chacin will join Chase Anderson and Zach Davies in the Milwaukee rotation, with Josh Hader, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff and Junior Guerra among the other candidates vying for opportunities to start. Chacin may not bring significant upside to the table, but he’s been a durable mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons and should help to stabilize a group that carried significant questions about the number of innings it could be reasonably expected to provide to manager Craig Counsell.

Chacin’s solid 2017 season did produce its fair share of skeptics — most notably owing to his significant home/road splits. In 100 1/3 innings at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin logged a sensational 1.79 ERA, but that number spiked to a ghastly 6.59 in 80 road innings. Chacin also dominated right-handed hitters to the tune of a .213/.284/.318 opponents’ slash line, while lefties posted a much more adept .251/.356/.433 slash against him.

The move to a more hitter-friendly Miller Park, then, will undoubtedly raise some questions. However, Chacin enjoyed success earlier in his career in the game’s worst pitching environment, Coors Field, and he’s long limited home runs better than the average pitcher. Despite spending parts of six seasons in Colorado and despite the recent uptick in homers throughout the league, Chacin has averaged just 0.85 HR/9 as a big leaguer.

Newer metrics paint Chacin in a favorable light, as well; Statcast pegs Chacin’s average exit velocity on balls in the air (91.3 mph) and overall exit velocity (85.4 mph) among the weakest in the game for qualified pitchers. His .303 xwOBA, while not elite, places him alongside names like Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. That’s not to say, of course, that Chacin should be expected to produce at comparable levels to those three starters, but rather that his solid results and overall penchant for weak contact could be more conducive to success than his surface-level home/road splits would suggest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

West Notes: Yu, G. Cole, Rangers, Stanton, Astros, Giants, Pads, A’s

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The Rangers talked to the Pirates about acquiring right-hander Gerrit Cole, but those discussions didn’t go anywhere, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports (Twitter link). Given that the Rangers are in need of starters even after signing Doug Fister and Mike Minor, the possibility of them turning back to old friend and top free agent Yu Darvish has come up. General manager Jon Daniels revealed Monday that the Rangers and Darvish still have a strong relationship even after they traded him away last July, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets. For his part, Darvish is interested in a reunion, agent Joel Wolfe told Wilson and other reporters (Twitter link). The potential of Texas deploying a six-man rotation doesn’t necessarily appeal to Darvish, though, despite the fact that he spoke in favor of that setup on multiple occasions in the past. “He’s one of those guys that would rather pitch on short rest than long rest,” Wolfe said.

More from the majors’ West divisions:

  • The reigning World Series champion Astros at least made an effort to acquire 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). The two sides never came close to a deal before the Yankees landed Stanton, however, Heyman adds. Notably, the Astros were one of four teams to whom Stanton would’ve accepted a trade. He also would’ve added another terrifying force to an all-world lineup headed by AL MVP Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
  • Meanwhile, the Giants would’ve had Stanton had he been willing to waive his no-trade clause for them. Executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean addressed his team’s failed pursuit Monday, saying his only “angst” stems from his belief that Wolfe didn’t make it clear that the Giants and Cardinals were just fallback options for Stanton (Twitter link via Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News). While the Giants were prepared to take on $230MM of Stanton’s $295MM contract to acquire him, that doesn’t mean they’re going to go into free-spending mode now that he’s out of the mix. Rather, they’re “back to being payroll conscious,” Heyman tweets.
  • Sabean also spoke on the subject of free agency and indicated that the Giants aren’t going to sign any players who rejected qualifying offers earlier this offseason. That could rule them out for rumored targets such as center fielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Signing either of those players would cost the Giants not only money, but their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool money. “If you’re asking me personally, my vote would be a no, being that we wouldn’t want to get involved with somebody like that,” said Sabean, who highlighted the importance of having the second pick in every round of the next draft. GM Bobby Evans shares similar feelings, according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. While the Giants seem set to use those picks, they’re listening to offers for the No. 2 selection in this Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets.
  • The Padres “remain in constant communication” with free agent righty Jhoulys Chacin’s camp, GM A.J. Preller revealed (Twitter link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). A deal is not imminent, though, Cassavell adds. Chacin turned in a quality year with the Padres last season and should earn a nice contract as a result.
  • Athletics executive VP Billy Beane announced after the season that they’re hoping to sign some of their best young talent to contract extensions this offseason. That remains the case, Beane told reporters. Beane added that picking up a veteran starter is a low priority for the A’s, saying they’re “not overly impressed with guys that would be available to us” (Twitter links via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Jane Lee of MLB.com).

NL West Notes: JDM, Chacin, Stammen, Hosmer, Diamondbacks

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Scarcely a day goes by in which the Giants are not linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that San Francisco is also considering the other top right-handed slugger that is available this offseason: J.D. Martinez. It’s not clear if the Giants have sat down with agent Scott Boras, and Shea is careful to note that the Giants are internally discussing a wide number of options to improve their offense. Martinez would represent the most aggressive means of doing so on the free-agent market. He’ll command fewer years and dollars than the remaining decade and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, though Boras is reportedly seeking a sky-high $210MM over seven years early in the offseason. (Martinez will quite likely sign for less than that, as early asking prices are always on the high side for any free agent.)

Working against the Giants is a payroll that is already dangerously close to the luxury tax barrier and that Martinez doesn’t help the Giants’ stated goals of improving the outfield defense or getting better in center field.

More on the from the division…

  • The Padres are interested in reunions with right-handers Jhoulys Chacin and Craig Stammen, general manager A.J. Preller told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings (link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). “From our standpoint, it’s about seeing how the next couple weeks play out,” said Preller. “They’re two guys we have interest in bringing back. We’ve got to see if we line up financially.” Cassavell reports that the Friars would consider a multi-year deal for either pitcher, though such a contract would likely need to come with a discounted second year. San Diego has a number of arms rising through the system and may not relish the idea of blocking those arms, though from my vantage point having either Chacin or Stammen around at an affordable rate is a good problem to have if all parties are performing well.
  • In a separate pair of Padres columns, Cassavell characterizes their interest in Eric Hosmer as little more than due diligence, while Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears a bit differently and reports that their interest goes “beyond the cursory level.” Cassavell notes that the Padres have kicked the tires on roughly 50 free agents thus far (most of them pitchers) as they look to get a full picture of the free-agent market. Lin, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres may be intrigued both by Hosmer’s intangible leadership qualities and by his 25-homer output despite being an extreme ground-ball hitter. A willingness to amend that approach and put the ball in the air more often could yield untapped power; I’d imagine that the Padres, who call spacious Petco Park their home, are also intrigued by the pop that Hosmer showed in his own cavernous home park (Kauffman Stadium) in spite of an approach that isn’t traditionally conducive to power.
  • The D-backs have added Jason Parks to their front office as their new director of pro scouting, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter). Parks, who many readers may remember from his excellent work at Baseball Prospectus, has been with the Cubs as a scout and a special assistant since 2014. He’ll join an increasingly youthful Arizona front office that is led by GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawadaye. Notably, Parks’ role as director of pro scouting will be the same one that Porter filled with the Cubs when he and Parks were colleagues in Chicago.

West Notes: Padres, Angels, Rangers

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Padres right-hander Jhoulys Chacin threw 180 1/3 innings of 3.89 ERA ball and contributed upward of two wins above replacement this season, making him one of the top bargain signings of 2017. Chacin inked a $1.75MM deal with the Padres last winter and should fare much better on his next contract, one that might come from another organization. But Chacin told AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that he’d be willing to continue his career in San Diego (Twitter link). “It’s hard to tell,” Chacin said of his future. “But I would be really happy to come back here.” Re-signing the capable innings eater would make a lot of sense for the rebuilding, starter-needy Padres, as MLBTR’s Jason Martinez wrote Friday.

More from San Diego and a couple other cities:

  • Padres owner Ron Fowler informed Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune that there are “a couple people we’re fairly close to getting deals done with,” which could mean Chacin or any of their other impending free agents. Regardless, both Fowler and managing partner Ron Seidler suggested to Lin that they’re happy with how this year has gone for the club. Seidler has seen enough progress to believe the Padres could soon be a factor in the NL West, a division the big-spending Dodgers have ruled over the past half-decade. Looking ahead two years, Seidler said: “At minimum, if we’re not in the chase for (the playoffs), I’d be disappointed. (If not), it wouldn’t mean I’d be angry or upset or anything. I think, given where we are right now, in 2019 we should have every chance not to just be a playoff team but to win the division.” Check out Lin’s full piece for more quotes from Seidler and Fowler on the direction of the franchise.
  • By starting in his final three appearances of the year, Angels righty Bud Norris lost out on a $500K bonus, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Norris would have collected that money had he made 60 relief appearances (he finished with 57), but starting him was not a money-saving move by the Angels. Rather, Norris volunteered to switch roles down the stretch, his representative revealed. “He did it for the team,” agent Joel Wolfe told Fletcher. “Now he’s going into free agency as one of the most versatile and valuable pitching assets given the ways teams tactically use their pitching staffs. The value he’s gotten out of starting is far in excess of that performance bonus.” Norris joined the Angels on a minor league deal last January and proved to be a shrewd pickup, pitching to a 4.21 ERA and recording 10.74 K/9 against 3.92 BB/9 over 62 innings. Thanks to that production, he seems likely to land a major league contract during the upcoming offseason.
  • Shin-Soo Choo has gotten some practice reps at first base this week and could end up as a part-time option there in 2018 for the Rangers, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. The Rangers are likely to cut ties with Mike Napoli after the season, which could open up first for Joey Gallo, but he’s probably better suited for the outfield, Wilson observes. Should Gallo take a spot in the grass, it might lead to some time at first for Choo, who has only served as an outfielder and a designated hitter since making his big league debut in 2005. Advanced defensive metrics have typically been bearish on Choo’s work in the field, though, and he’ll turn 36 next summer. First seems like a more logical place for him, then, though Wilson cautions that this experiment isn’t guaranteed to stretch into next season. Offensively, the lefty-swinging Choo has turned in another respectable year with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .261/.357/.423 line in 636 plate appearances.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

NL West Notes: CarGo, Chacin, Duplantier

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The Rockies offered Carlos Gonzalez a new four-year deal during extension talks last spring, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  The two sides explored an extension for the long-time Colorado outfielder during the offseason, though talks never seemed to get too far — this four-year proposal is the only known offer exchanged, apart from some “initial suggestions” from Rockies management that were rejected out of hand by Gonzalez’s representatives in early December.  Gonzalez said that he and the team hadn’t engaged in serious talks as of last February 22, and negotiations were reportedly “on hold” as of early March.  The dollar value of the offer isn’t known (Nightengale describes it as “lucrative”), though the fact that Colorado was willing to offer four years to a player who will be 32 next Opening Day is in itself significant, especially since the Rockies have several other interesting outfielders on their big league roster and in the minors.  The lack of an extension looms large for Gonzalez in the wake of his disappointing 2017 season — he has suffered through two DL stints and is batting a career-worst .228/.299/.345 over 365 plate appearances.

(Apart from the Gonzalez item, Nightengale’s piece focuses on how several of baseball’s biggest names are dealing with the extra pressure facing them as they approach free agency.  The piece includes quotes from Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez, John Lackey and more, and is well worth a full read.)

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Jhoulys Chacin has expressed openness to re-signing with the Padres this winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Chacin has posted good results after signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Padres last winter, and it isn’t surprising that the righty would like to stay at Petco Park — Chacin has a 1.86 ERA over 12 home starts (77.1 IP) this year, as opposed to a 7.35 ERA over 10 starts (49 IP) on the road.  Those large splits were one reason, Lin notes, why the Padres may not have been able to move Chacin before the deadline, though Lin was surprised the team couldn’t have found at least one suitor willing to part with more than a token prospect.
  • The Diamondbacks received some interest in minor league right-hander Jon Duplantier prior to the trade deadline, Fangraphs’ David Laurila reports.  The 23-year-old Duplantier, a third-round pick for Arizona in the 2016 draft, has a 1.53 ERA, 10/1 K/9 and 4.25 K/BB rate over 106 combined innings at the high-A and A-ball levels this season.  MLB.com ranks Duplantier as the second-best prospect in Arizona’s system, citing his “power curve,” solid changeup and fastball in the 91-96 mph range, though the righty has also already had some shoulder and elbow issues early in his career.  A source with another club tells Laurila that the D’Backs put a high asking price on Duplantier in trade talks.
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