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Jeremy Hellickson

Orioles In On Jeremy Hellickson

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9:22pm: The Orioles are “active” on Hellickson, tweets Rosenthal. That’s a rather surprising development, given that the Orioles are seven games back in the AL East and six back in the Wild Card race. Most of the talk on them has involved the Orioles selling off pieces in recent weeks, though many have been skeptical that owner Peter Angelos would ultimately give GM Dan Duquette the green light on selling off some veteran assets.

5:55pm: Zolecki also tweets that the field conditions were a significant factor, though he tweets that the Phillies are in “serious” trade talks involving Hellickson.

5:45pm: MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Hellickson “has not been traded — yet,” adding that the Phils are in active trade discussions involving the right-hander and did not want to take any chances with rainy, sloppy conditions on the field tonight.

5:41pm: The Phillies have scratched right-hander Jeremy Hellickson from tonight’s start, tweets MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. While Zolecki notes that no trade has yet been finalized, “something’s cooking” with Hellickson and a yet-unreported club.

Hellickson, 30, accepted a qualifying offer from the Phillies this past offseason, locking him in at a $17.2MM salary for the 2017 season. He’s still owed about $6.1MM of that total through season’s end, though reports have indicated that the Phils would be willing to pay down some of the remaining commitment.

After an uninspiring start to the season, Hellickson has upped his strikeout totals in recent starts, working to a 4.33 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate in 35 1/3 innings. That uptick in strikeouts is especially notable, as Hellickson averaged a league-worst 3.97 K/9 through his first 14 starts of the season.

Heyman’s Latest: Cole, Cutch, Fulmer, Iglesias, Abreu, Bruce, Alonso, Darvish

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The Pirates are on a roll in the NL Central, having just swept the division-leading Brewers in a four-game series. Even prior to today’s win, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote in his weekly notes column that Pittsburgh not only continues to look unlikely to trade Gerrit Cole but is now also unlikely to deal outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who has undergone a remarkable turnaround at the plate since late May.

More highlights from Heyman’s latest, including his American League and National League breakdowns:

  • The Tigers appear all but entirely unwilling to move young starter Michael Fulmer, per Heyman. That’s largely unsurprising, though perhaps it might have been expected that the club would at least entertain some scenarios in the interest of covering all its bases. While he’d surely draw a major haul, it would probably be tough for the team to part with its best asset while so many expensive veterans remain under contract. Meanwhile, Heyman notes that shortstop Jose Iglesias could be had for the right price, though it’s hard to see that coming together with such limited demand at the position.
  • Though the White Sox are clearly in the midst of another aggressive sale, Heyman writes that there are no plans to move Jose Abreu at this time. The slugger is in the midst of a fine season, but there’s a limited market for first base help at this time. With another two years of control beyond this season, the ChiSox will perhaps have more opportunistic times to market him. Derek Holland, on the other hand, could very well be moved in the coming week, and the South Siders would like to move Melky Cabrera as well but would probably need to pay down most of the remainder of this year’s $15MM salary.
  • The Indians are a possible landing spot for Jay Bruce, as their offense is currently without the injured Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis. The Mets are known to be looking to move Bruce, and it’s worth noting that USA Today’s Bob Nightengale recently reported that Cleveland was in the mix for slugger J.D. Martinez right up until the time he was traded.
  • With limited trade partners for Yonder Alonso — especially following the Yankees’ acquisition of Todd Frazier — the Athletics once again touched base with Yonder Alonso’s reps at MVP Sports about an extension, per Heyman. They’ll circle back again and do so later this week as the two sides attempt to find a middle ground. Oakland is in the midst of an all-out rebuild, as executive vice president of baseball ops Billy Beane recently indicated, but Alonso could provide some leadership for the team’s younger players. And, if he sustains his breakout through season’s end and into 2018, he could certainly become a marketable asset in the future when there’s more of a need at his position.
  • The Rangers aren’t likely to re-sign Yu Darvish after the season, Heyman writes, as Darvish’s camp has already thrown out Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $175MM contract as a potential comp. Texas isn’t prepared to bid that highly to retain Darvish, which is why they’ve at least signaled to teams that they’ll listen to offers on Darvish if they struggle too much between now and the deadline. There’s no plan to move Cole Hamels at this time, though, he adds.
  • While the Diamondbacks may have made their biggest move already, the club is still looking at ways to bolster the pitching staff. Heyman pegs Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada as a possibility, though it’s unclear if he’s actively under consideration. It’s fair to wonder, too, whether the club would be better suited to focusing on bullpen help — though, of course, looking at starters doesn’t preclude that possibility.
  • While the Cubs have made at least some contact with the Athletics on righty Sonny Gray even since acquiring Jose Quintana, Heyman says that it’s not at all clear that Chicago will be “a strong player” for another controllable starter.
  • With Jaime Garcia seemingly going off the board, there ought to be greater focus now on Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson. He ought to be easier to obtain now than he was last year, Heyman notes, as the Phils are willing to hold onto at least some of his $17.2MM salary to improve the prospect return.

Phillies Notes: Franco, Joseph, Hellickson

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Here’s the latest on the Phillies, who will be one of the most notable sellers in the market as we approach the trade deadline…

  • Maikel Franco is available in trade talks “but the price is high,” CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes.  Previous reports suggested that the Phils were looking to move on from Franco, though he has hit better over the last month, so Philadelphia is perhaps looking to recoup more value for the third baseman.  Of course, it wasn’t long ago that Franco was a highly-touted prospect who was seen as a potential cornerstone of the Phillies’ rebuild, though he has been below-average at the plate in both 2016 and 2017.
  • Also from Salisbury’s piece, it seems like Tommy Joseph will have to be moved so the Phillies can get a look at Rhys Hoskins as the regular first baseman.  “They can’t coexist on the same team,” manager Pete Mackanin said.  “There is no way I could [get playing time for both]. It wouldn’t be fair to either guy. It wouldn’t be fair to us….If [Hopkins] could play another position, if either one of them could, it would make it easier for me to do. But I don’t think it would help either guy or us to find out about Rhys Hoskins if he is not playing on a regular basis.”  Joseph has 36 homers and a .254/.310/.487 slash line in 662 career plate appearances, so between his production, age (26 next week) and five-plus years of team control, he’ll certainly get some attention on the trade market.
  • Jeremy Hellickson looks like a sure bet to be traded, and PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence looks at the Phillies could receive in a deal for the veteran innings-eater based on past recent deadline deals for somewhat comparable pitchers.  The Phils seem likely to eat some or most of Hellickson’s remaining salary in order to receive a better prospect return.  Salisbury suggested that the Royals and Mariners could be potential trade suitors for Hellickson, as both teams are looking for low-cost rotation help.

Cafardo On Hellickson, Amaro, Quintana, Middlebrooks

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Here are a few highlights from the latest column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • The Phillies are willing to listen to trade offers for righty Jeremy Hellickson. That’s hardly a surprise, since Hellickson is a short-term asset pitching for a 13-19 team that’s trying to rebuild, but it was also recently reported that the Phillies could also consider extending Hellickson, who accepted their qualifying offer last winter. Hellickson has posted a 3.49 ERA, 4.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 38 2/3 innings thus far in his second season in Philadelphia.
  • Speaking of the Phillies, former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has won praise from current team execs for his series of trades before being dismissed following the 2015 season. Those trades include an impressive haul for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman that included Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, and Nick Williams; the trade of Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals, which brought back Nick Pivetta, a starter who made his big-league debut this year; the trade of Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers, which brought back Zach Eflin, who’s pitched well for the Phillies this season; and the deal of Marlon Byrd to the Reds, which returned Ben Lively, who’s emerging as a good depth rotation option. Amaro is currently the Red Sox’ first base coach.
  • Former White Sox teammate Chris Sale thinks oft-rumored trade target Jose Quintana should be able to thrive anywhere, Cafardo writes. “He’s not a guy who lets outside factors bother him,” says Sale. “I think his middle name was ‘No-Decision,’ and how he handled himself through those times where he went out there seven innings, gave up two runs, and had nothing to show for it, never altered his attitude or his work ethic. And seeing that was impressive.”
  • Rangers third baseman Will Middlebrooks hopes to return in mid- to late June after breaking his hand in April. It’s been awhile since the 28-year-old Middlebrooks made much of an impact in the Majors, but after signing a minor-league deal with the Rangers last winter, he was off to a hot start at Triple-A Round Rock, batting .313/.377/.625 in his first 53 plate appearances there.

Starting Pitching Notes: Harvey, Cole, McCarthy, Greinke, Hellickson

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Starting pitchers could dominate talks leading up to this summer’s trade deadline, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest Insider-only column.  In addition to long-discussed trade candidates like White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, struggling would-be contenders like the Mets, Blue Jays, Royals, and Pirates could put some of their own arms on the market if they’re fully out of the pennant race by July.  Olney’s column is well worth a full read for his listing of every potential name on the market, though here are a few of the particular hot stove notables…

  • Some evaluators believe the Mets would listen to offers for Matt Harvey if they fall out of the running in the NL East.  The former ace has been whispered in trade rumors for a couple of years due to both off-the-field controversy and a seeming likelihood that he will test the free agent market after the 2018 season (Scott Boras is Harvey’s agent).  Of course, Harvey’s stock has dropped due to an injury-plagued 2016 campaign, and the righty has been only average (4.25 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB rate) over 29.2 IP and five starts this season.  Harvey has been been homer-prone this season and his average fastball velocity is 93.8 mph, two full miles down from his 2015 velocity.  Still, as long as Harvey stays healthy, one would think he’d still receive a lot of deadline attention given his past history.
  • Gerrit Cole is also a Boras client, and since “there is a wide expectation” that Cole won’t stay with the Pirates when his current deal is up after 2019, the righty could be a deadline chip.  Olney writes that some teams felt Pittsburgh was even willing to listen to offers for Cole last year.  With two-plus years of team control left, Cole could well be the most sought-after name on the market if the Bucs indeed made him available, though Cole also has a fairly checkered injury history over the last three years.  The right-hander has a 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.5 K/BB rate, and 47.1% grounder rate through 30 innings this season.  Dealing Cole wouldn’t necessarily indicate a rebuild for the Pirates, as the team could seek to gain some MLB-ready young talent that could help them make a quick rebound in 2018.
  • Some contending teams could also look to shop pitching, as Olney notes that the Dodgers could again try to move Brandon McCarthy after they were unable to find a taker last winter.  McCarthy has a 3.10 ERA, 7.76 K/9, and 2.78 K/BB rate through 29 innings, finally looking to be in good form after missing much of 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery.  Of course, given McCarthy’s long injury history, interested teams will surely want to see if the veteran can stay healthy before making any trade offers.  In my opinion, I’d think that the Dodgers might want to hang onto McCarthy given the team’s other injury and performance issues within their rotation.
  • Even with Zack Greinke pitching well and the Diamondbacks battling for first in the NL West, Greinke’s huge salary will still make the D’Backs open to discussing a trade, rival evaluators believe.  Greinke is owed roughly $167MM through the end of the 2021 season, single-handedly accounting for a such a big percentage of Arizona’s current and future payroll commitments that a trade may well be in the best long-term interest of the team.  Of course, if the D’Backs are still contending into July, GM Mike Hazen will face pressure to keep Greinke so he can help the club reach the postseason for just the third time in 15 seasons.
  • A busier-than-expected pitching market could also lead to some players staying put, as Olney suggests the Phillies could look to extend Jeremy Hellickson and make him a building block of their rotation.  Hellickson has a 1.80 ERA through 30 innings this season, though his ERA predictors and peripheral numbers (3.3 K/9, .196 BABIP, 86.2% strand rate, 3.63 FIP, 5.26 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA) suggest that he has been quite fortunate to get such good results.  One would think Philadelphia would try to sell high on Hellickson if he keeps outperforming the advanced metrics to such a large extent, though obviously other teams will be wary of those numbers as well.

Pitcher Notes: Hellickson, Urias, Straily, May

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Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson’s November decision to accept the Phillies’ qualifying offer in lieu of testing free agency came as a surprise, but he believes it was the correct choice. “I feel like I made the right decision,” Hellickson told Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com earlier this month. “And seeing how it all went down, I definitely feel like I made the right decision.” Only three free agent starters – Rich Hill ($48MM), Ivan Nova ($26MM) and Edinson Volquez ($22MM) – ended up scoring deals worth more than Hellickson’s $17.2MM qualifying offer during the winter, and each did so via two- or three-year deals. Hellickson was actually eager to join them in a weak market before receiving advice from his agent, Scott Boras  “The first few days I was set on declining it,” Hellickson said of the QO. “There really wasn’t too much stress involved. But then after hearing from Scott after the (GM Meetings), I didn’t know what I was going to do.” Ultimately, the market developed as Boras expected it to, per Hellickson, who added that he’s content in Philly and “glad” the Marlins’ attempt to acquire him last summer failed.

The latest on a few other pitchers:

  • While the possibility of the Dodgers stashing Julio Urias in extended spring training to begin the year has come up, they’re now “leaning toward” having the left-hander open the season in their rotation, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. In that scenario, the 20-year-old wunderkind would make shorter starts to tamp down his workload, per Gurnick.  Including postseason play, Urias tossed a career-high 127 2/3 innings between the majors and minors last year.
  • Marlins righty Dan Straily enjoyed perhaps the best season of his career last year, when the then-Red totaled 191 1/3 frames of 3.76 ERA ball with 7.62 K/9 and 3.43 BB/9, and he attributes much of his 2016 success to analytics, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. One of Straily’s friends, a banking analytics specialist who “loves baseball,” helped the 28-year-old determine “which are the best pitches to throw against certain hitters.” Straily also studied one pitcher per division with similar velocity, spin rate and spin angles. “Now going into the game, there’s not a lot of guesswork,” Straily told Jackson. “I have a plan. I had a big change in terms of pitch selection more than anything else. I threw way more changeups last year. Just mixing speeds a lot more; not being predictable.”
  • After working mostly as a reliever from 2015-16, including all of last season, Twins righty Trevor May is ready to leave the bullpen behind and win a starting job this spring. “I think I have a little bit of a chip, being unclear about knowing what I was going to be doing the last two years,” May, 27, told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. “It wasn’t ideal for me or the vision I had for myself of my career. I’m going at it at 100 percent. There’s no, ’Oh, I could fall back to the bullpen.'” May, who has logged a 5.61 ERA (3.85 FIP), 8.17 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 126 2/3 career innings as a starter, is competing against several other candidates for a rotation spot, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams detailed Friday.

East Notes: Bourn, Hellickson, Prado, Locke

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Veteran outfielder Michael Bourn seems fairly likely to make the Orioles’ Opening Day roster, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes. His chief attributes — speed and defense — are areas where the club is lacking, and Bourn could conceivably not only lead off against righties, but also spell Adam Jones in center from time to time. Of course, his presence makes it less likely both that last year’s Rule 5 pick, Joey Rickard, makes the MLB roster and that the team is able to keep this year’s Rule 5ers (outfielders Aneury Tavarez and Anthony Santander).

Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • The Phillies seem inclined to hand the ball to righty Jeremy Hellickson when they start play this season, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “He’s probably got the best chance to be our Opening Day starter,” said manager Pete Mackanin. Hellickson, who took the organization’s $17.2MM qualifying offer rather than testing the open market, will be aiming to replicate a solid 2016 season and then test free agency without being saddled with draft compensation. (Under the new CBA, he won’t be eligible to receive a second qualifying offer.)
  • Another player who steered clear of the open market, Marlins third baseman Martin Prado, discussed his decision to take an extension last fall. As Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel reports, Prado wasn’t sure he wanted to consider a new deal with just a few weeks left in the season. But the terms (three years and $40MM) were favorable enough for him to consider it, and he says he ended up preferring to stay in place after bouncing around a fair bit in prior seasons. As Healey writes, Prado had reasons both personal and professional for remaining in Miami. “I know I could probably get more money somewhere else if I go to a different team,” said Prado, “but I truly believe in this group of guys. They have fun. They play hard. I feel comfortable.”
  • Meanwhile, Marlins lefty Jeff Locke is dealing with biceps tendinitis, as Healey further reports in the above-linked post. A few days’ rest is all that’s required at present, with Locke calling the brief shut-down a matter of taking a precaution early in camp. The southpaw struggled to a cumulative 4.90 ERA over the past two seasons, allowing the Marlins to grab him for $3.025MM on a one-year deal. While it seems reasonable to hope that the ailment won’t limit Locke, he already faces something of an uphill battle to win a rotation spot; Jason Martinez of MLBTR and RosterResource.com currently projects Locke to end up in the Miami pen to start the year.

NL East Notes: Cashner Trade Fallout, Nats, Familia, d’Arnaud

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Last summer’s partially deconstructed swap between the Marlins and Padres had far-reaching implications, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. After learning of issues with Colin Rea’s health and discovering that San Diego had failed to disclose certain medical information, Miami considered rescinding the entire deal — which the commissioner’s office offered to facilitate. But due to practical considerations and the apparent preferences of the league, the Fish instead worked out a deal to send Rea back to the Pads for prospect Luis Castillo, thus keeping Andrew Cashner in Miami and Josh Naylor (and others) in San Diego. That, in turn, prevented an alternative deal that would’ve sent Naylor to the Phillies for righty Jeremy Hellickson. There was fallout beyond that, as Rosenthal explains, including the fact that Hellickson ultimately received and accepted a qualifying offer from the Phils that he otherwise wouldn’t have been eligible for.

Here are some more NL East-focused notes:

  • As presently constructed, the Nationals have a strong core but questionable depth beyond it, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues. The problems are compounded by the health questions facing many of the Nats’ best players. Cameron suggests (as we’ve done here, as well) that Washington ought to have considered adding a quality, left-handed bat to share time with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth. Though that could still come to pass, the most obvious options are now off the market. Meanwhile, the team still arguably ought to bolster its late-inning relief corps and rotation depth.
  • The league’s investigation into domestic violence allegations against Mets closer Jeurys Familia is moving slowly, per Bob Klapisch of NorthJersey.com. With the criminal case dropped — in large part, it seems, due to a decision by his wife not to testify — the commissioner’s office is struggling to obtain information. While that won’t necessarily prevent a suspension, it is creating delay. According to Klapisch, it’s likely that the final penalty won’t be known until late in Spring Training.
  • The Mets are hopeful that backstop Travis d’Arnaud can restore his career trajectory after a tough 2016 season, David Lennon of Newsday writes. He’s already working with catching instructor Glenn Sherlock to work out the defensive kinks, though d’Arnaud also needs to prove he can stay healthy and productive at the plate.

Jeremy Hellickson Accepts Qualifying Offer

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2:40pm: Hellickson tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he was leaning toward declining the qualifying offer but changed his mind after multiple teams expressed reluctance to part with a draft pick when speaking to Boras (Twitter link).

1:11pm: Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson has accepted the one-year qualifying offer and will return to the Phillies for the 2017 season a $17.2MM salary, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). Hellickson, a client of the Boras Corporation, will become the fourth player to ever accept a QO, joining outfielder Colby Rasmus, left-hander Brett Anderson and catcher Matt Wieters — each of whom accepted a $15.8MM qualifying offer last winter.

[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]

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The news on Hellickson comes as somewhat of a surprise, given the dismal market for starting pitching. The 29-year-old Hellickson (30 next April) looked to be one of a select few arms that could be expected to deliver a quality season’s worth of innings in 2017 and, as such, was one of the few rotation options projected to receive a multi-year deal in free agency. However, Hellickson and his representatives have had the past week to survey the free-agent market while weighing the decision to accept Philadelphia’s offer, and clearly his camp wasn’t comfortable enough with his potential earning power to forgo a one-year deal at $17.2MM. That sum actually exceeds Hellickson’s career earnings to date, so his reluctance to pass on it is understandable from that point of view. He’ll now look to repeat was a strong 2016 season in the Phillies’ rotation and enter the open market next winter in advance of his age-31 season. If he’s able to do so, he could find himself in position for an even more lucrative deal, as he’d be coming off a two-year platform of quality work as opposed to the rebound campaign he enjoyed with the Phils this past year.

Acquired from the D-backs last winter in what amounted to be a salary dump, Hellickson tossed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball for the Phillies this year, averaging 7.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. That represented a continuation of a strong second half in 2015, giving Hellickson a 3.74 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over his past 240 1/3 innings at the big league level. If he’s able to continue on at that pace in 2017, he should have no issues finding a sizable multi-year deal next winter, and there’s reason to believe that he could do so without needing to burden himself with a qualifying offer. The collective bargaining agreement is being renegotiated as we speak, and the flawed QO system is one of the main subjects of the newest wave of collective bargaining talks. Some reports have suggested that the new CBA will prevent players from being eligible for a QO in consecutive years, while other speculation has centered around eliminating the QO system altogether.

The long-term financial outcome for Hellickson remains to be seen, but his short-term prospects are set in stone at this point. After accepting the QO, he cannot be traded until June 15 of next season without his consent, so he’ll return to a Phillies rotation that’ll also include Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. Philadelphia has a number of young arms that can compete for the final spot in that rotation, including right-handers Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Ben Lively. That group should give manager Pete Mackanin a solid starting mix in 2017, so the challenge for GM Matt Klentak, president Andy MacPhail and the rest of the Phillies’ front office will be to improve a lineup that was one of the worst, if not the worst in all of baseball last season. The Phils have already added one veteran bat to the mix in the form of Howie Kendrick, and they’ll presumably look to add some more respectable pieces to help round out a lineup that will be centered around Odubel Herrera and a hopefully improved Maikel Franco in 2017.

The Phillies will not receive the compensatory draft pick they likely expected to acquire when issuing Hellickson the QO in the first place, although having a capable arm back in their rotation on a one-year deal isn’t a disastrous outcome, even if it comes at somewhat of an overpay. Philadelphia, after all, has virtually no money committed to its long-term books, as Hellickson will join Kendrick ($10MM), recently acquired right-hander Pat Neshek ($6.5MM) and injured lefty Matt Harrison ($13.25MM plus a $2MM buyout of his 2018 option) as the only guaranteed contracts on next year’s roster. That, plus a modest projection of $12.8MM to four arbitration-eligible players (which could dip if Cody Asche and/or Jeanmar Gomez is non-tendered) brings them to a current Opening Day payroll projection of just $77.7MM (including pre-arb players). For a team that has previously spent as much as $177.7MM on its Opening Day payroll, the addition of Hellickson at $17.2MM is hardly a financial burden.

Taking a step back, the removal of Hellickson from the free-agent market takes an already terrible crop of starters and thins it even further. Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jason Hammel are the top three starters available this winter, and teams in need of other arms will be left with few options. Those teams could turn to bounce-back candidates like Andrew Cashner, Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Jorge De La Rosa and Doug Fister or look to get creative by signing someone such as Travis Wood and converting him back into a starter or pursuing international arms like Korea’s Kwang-hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang and Woo-chan Cha.

Otherwise, the trade market will be the most obvious method for teams to add to their respective rotations, though the lack of viable alternatives that are available through other means should place an abnormally high premium on rotation help. That was always going to be the case anyway; Hellickson’s subtraction from the free-agent class doesn’t create a shortage of pitching, but it certainly creates even more scarcity and should force one more team to get creative in seeking a starter, as he’ll now be returning to a team that didn’t otherwise seem like a plausible fit for him on a multi-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jeremy Hellickson Leaning Toward Rejecting Qualifying Offer

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Agent Scott Boras wouldn’t comment definitively on whether Jeremy Hellickson plans to accept or reject the Phillies’ $17.2MM qualifying offer on Wednesday, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Hellickson has been advised to do so. Additionally, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that Hellickson is leaning toward declining the offer.

It’d come as a shock if Hellickson were to accept the QO, as he’s one of only a select few starters that can reasonably expect to command a strong multi-year deal this winter. Hellickson joins lefty Rich Hill and fellow righty Ivan Nova atop a historically thin market for starting pitching. On the heels of a 3.71 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate in 189 innings of work, Hellickson has a strong enough case that we pegged him seventh among free agents this winter and projected a four-year, $60MM contract for the former AL Rookie of the Year. And, as Heyman points out, Hellickson’s quality work dates back to the second half of the 2015 campaign with the D-backs. While that year was a disappointment overall, Hellickson did indeed have a nice run to close out the year, logging a 3.86 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate following the All-Star Game — numbers that look quite similar to his 2016 output.

As Salisbury writes, Boras said there’s already been considerable interest in Hellickson, which is to be expected given the dearth of options in free agency. “In this market, he’s probably the foremost young, under-30 pitcher,” said Boras. “You know, he had a 3.71 ERA in Philadelphia, which is an offensive ballpark. … He’s a guy that’s got the highest spin rate on a breaking ball. He has a lot of components that tell you why he’s successful — his command, changeup, breaking ball — and that’s creating a lot of interest for a lot of teams. And in a free-agent marketplace short on starting pitching — it’s very advantageous for him.”

If Hellickson does hit the open market — which seems exceptionally likely — it’s difficult to envision him re-signing with the Phillies. General manager Matt Klentak spoke to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi about Hellickson today at the GM Meetings (video link), telling him: “The fully honest answer is I’m happy and content either way. If we get Jeremy Hellickson back on a one-year deal, that’s great. He’s really good, and having a starting pitcher on a short-term deal is something that I’ll take every time. Conversely, if he ends up testing free agency, I’ll be rooting for him. I hope he gets every penny he’s worth, but we’ll be happy to take the draft pick.”

Hellickson and the other nine players that received qualifying offers from their respective teams have until Monday to determine whether they’ll accept or reject the offer, although any of those free agents can technically sign a deal before that deadline (which would be considered the equivalent of rejecting the QO). That’s a rare outcome, of course, though Michael Cuddyer signed a two-year deal with the Mets two years ago in the week between receiving a QO from the Rockies and the deadline to accept or decline. However, there’s been no indication that any of the free agents to receive a QO are anywhere near a decision.

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