J.D. Martinez

Avila: Tigers “Open-Minded” On All Trade Scenarios

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 10:25pm CDT

Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the club is willing to listen to offers on even its best-known veterans, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports. Still, Detroit doesn’t necessarily intend to put specific players on the market.

While the Tigers aren’t planning a “full-blown selloff by any means,” said Avila, they feel the need to “be open-minded in listening to what clubs may be interested in from us and what we can do with it.” That includes a willingness to entertain offers, should they come in, for such franchise staples as Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera (both of whom enjoy no-trade protection) — though Avila said “it would be in [the Tigers’] best interest if we could keep them and do everything that we need to do.”

What the team hopes to do, he reiterated, is embark upon a quest for youth, athleticism, and cost efficiency in its major league roster. But while that will be the new operating philosophy, the Tigers seemingly hope to accomplish a smooth transition rather than a drastic rebuild.

“Quite frankly, like I told ownership, it may not get done this winter,” said Avila. “As a matter of fact, it probably won’t get done this winter.”

Beyond Verlander and Cabrera, the Tigers have significant obligations on the books to aging (but still-productive) veterans such as Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. The team also owes large sums to younger players like Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton, both of whom are coming off of less-than-inspiring first seasons in Detroit.

Perhaps the club’s single most obvious trade piece, though, is right fielder J.D. Martinez, who is just 29 years of age and has been one of the game’s premier power hitters over the last three seasons. While Martinez could theoretically profile as an extension target, given his age and output, Avila made clear that the organization isn’t interested in pursuing new contracts with any players this winter, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. With Martinez slated to reach the open market next winter, he could be a major chip for the Tigers in the coming months — or, perhaps, at the summer trade deadline.

Tigers Unlikely To Pursue Extension With J.D. Martinez

By Steve Adams | October 20, 2016 at 10:44am CDT

GM Al Avila made headlines earlier this week when he stated that changes were on the horizon for a Tigers team that “has been working way above its means for some time,” thereby implying that payroll needs to decrease, and he also added that the Detroit roster needs to get younger. While that doesn’t mean the Tigers will ship off cornerstones Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, it does call into question the future of some players who are nearing the end of their time with the team, including J.D. Martinez, whom Avila says isn’t likely to be extended this winter, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

“I don’t foresee any talks of a long-term contract at this point,” Avila said of Martinez. “In saying that, we’re going to keep an open mind in what possibilities come across this winter, this coming summer. I’m not going to rule out that we wouldn’t consider a long-term deal, but sitting here today, we’re not thinking that way right now.”

An extension of Martinez, who is slated to become a free agent next winter, would represent yet another $100MM+ commitment for the Tigers given the extent to which the 29-year-old has blossomed since signing in Detroit. Martinez has batted a combined .299/.357/.540 over the past three years and averaged 34 homers per 162 games played along the way. He missed nearly two months of the 2016 season with a fracture in his elbow but was improbably even better after his time on the DL, slashing .332/.392/.553 with 10 homers over his final 232 plate appearances (albeit with the help of an unsustainable .418 BABIP).

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possibility of a Martinez extension, noting that his age and emergence as an offensive force could push his price point beyond the six-year, $132.75MM figure for which Justin Upton signed last winter (depending on whether or not the Tigers and Martinez’s agents worked an opt-out clause into the deal). That number may look jarring for a player who was released by Houston in Spring Training 2014, but since Opening Day 2014, Martinez rates as the game’s 13th-best hitter by measure of wRC+ (via Fangraphs), placing him alongside the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Kris Bryant. His defense, as Mark addressed in the aforementioned Extension Candidate piece, is another story, but Martinez’s bat comes with tremendous value.

As such, the possibility of Martinez’s entrance into the trade market this offseason shouldn’t be taken lightly. Fenech speculates that Martinez is the likeliest member of the Tigers to be traded this winter, as doing so would trim $11.75MM off the payroll and net the team some much-needed premium minor league talent. The Tigers, after all, have a pair of young outfielders that are out of minor league options next year in Steven Moya and Tyler Collins, both of whom will need to make the Opening Day roster or risk being exposed to outright waivers. Dealing Martinez would free up a much clearer path to a big league opportunity for either player.

Extension Candidate: J.D. Martinez

By Mark Polishuk | September 21, 2016 at 10:41pm CDT

The Tigers discussed a long-term contract with J.D. Martinez last offseason before settling on a shorter multi-year pact. Martinez’s two-year, $18.5MM deal allowed the two sides to avoid arbitration, settling the outfielder’s salaries for both his second and third years of arbitration eligibility. With Martinez now just over a year removed from free agency in the 2017-18 offseason, Tigers GM Al Avila will surely re-engage Martinez’s agents at RMG Baseball about an extension that will keep the slugger in the Motor City for years to come.

Martinez missed just under seven weeks due to a fracture in his right elbow, a somewhat fluky injury that interrupted an otherwise outstanding season. He entered Wednesday’s action hitting .317/.384/.556 (all of which would be career highs) with 21 homers over 469 plate appearances, plus his 151 wRC+ ranks among the top ten hitters in the sport in that metric of total batting productivity. He is also on pace for a career-best walk rate, as well as his lowest strikeout rate in four years. Since joining the Tigers as an unheralded minor league signing during Spring Training 2014, Martinez has done nothing but rake, delivering a .907 OPS over 1606 PA in a Detroit uniform.

Martinez expressed an interest in being “a Tiger for life” last winter, though his asking price has surely gone up in the wake of his third straight huge season. He has extra leverage in the form of financial security (over $21.5MM in career earnings by the end of next season) and the fact that he’d be in line for a monster contract in the 2017-18 free agent market. If he duplicates his 2014-16 numbers, JDM will have the most earning potential of any hitter in that year’s free agent class. Carlos Gonzalez has a longer track record but he is two years older than Martinez and hasn’t been as impressive of late; the Royals trio of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas can’t be considered locks for huge money based on their problems in 2016; Justin Upton has also struggled this season and may not choose to opt out of his own contract with the Tigers next winter.

Upton’s situation looms as a major factor in the talks between Martinez and the Tigers. Upton has only recently started to hit after a dreadful first half, so he’d need a big rebound year in 2017 to consider opting out. If he chooses to remain in his contract, the Tigers will owe Upton $88.5MM through the 2021 season. That is a sizeable chunk of payroll that, based on this year’s numbers, Detroit would surely prefer to allocate towards keeping Martinez in the fold.

The Tigers won’t get much salary relief this winter, as club options for Francisco Rodriguez and Cameron Maybin will probably be exercised. More money will be freed up after 2017 when Rodriguez, Maybin, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe, Anibal Sanchez (whose $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up) and, potentially, Upton all come off the books. Detroit also has a $10MM club option on Ian Kinsler for 2018 that looks like a clear pickup given how the veteran second baseman has performed, and Kinsler and Victor Martinez are both slated to be free agents after 2018, which frees up more future payroll space.

Then again, since owner Mike Ilitch has shown no inclination to curtail his spending, the usual standards of payroll reasoning may not apply to the Tigers. While the club doesn’t extend every key player (e.g. Max Scherzer — though they tried), the current unlikelihood of Upton opting out might not have much impact on the Tigers’ desire to lock up Martinez. In fact, the reverse logic could apply — with Upton not producing, Martinez may be deemed more necessary than ever to solidify the lineup. The Tigers have been just as willing to dole out big contracts under Avila as they were under Dave Dombrowski, and Ilitch hasn’t shown any hesitation in spending big on free agents or extending his own stars (namely Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander).

Many pundits felt the Tigers overpaid on those two extensions, and while JDM hasn’t achieved the franchise icon status of Cabrera or Verlander, there’s no question the team can go beyond market value to lock up a cornerstone player. An overpay could be required to keep Martinez from testing free agency, given his aforementioned headline status in the 2017-18 class.

Martinez just turned 29 a few weeks ago, and since he’s already signed through 2017, his next deal would begin in his age-30 season. Looking at MLBTR’s Extension Tracker for outfielders between five and six years of service time, a Martinez extension would comfortably surpass every deal on that list save for Matt Kemp’s extension with the Dodgers. (That contract isn’t really a comparable since Kemp signed heading into his age-27 season.)

Martinez’s agents would likely be looking for at least a six-year commitment in any extension. Upton’s six-year, $132.75MM deal or the seven-year, $161MM contract Chris Davis got from the Orioles last winter could be comps in terms of average annual value for a JDM extension, so something in the range of $22.125MM to 23MM per season. Davis also signed his deal prior to his age-30 season, and he’s doubly comparable to Martinez in the sense that both were under-the-radar minor leaguers who surprisingly broke out as top-tier hitters.

Davis might’ve had some added value beyond just his bat, as he has posted strong defensive metrics as a first baseman over the last three years. Martinez’s right field glove is a much larger question mark — he has a dreadful -18.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved this year, a far cry from his above-average metrics in 2015. His career-long defensive stats imply that last season may have been the outlier, so between his glove and his subpar baserunning, JDM may be headed for a designated hitter role sooner rather than later. The Tigers could try to make do with his right field defense for two more years and then substitute one Martinez for another in the DH role once V-Mart’s contract is up. Cabrera is still holding his own in terms of first base defense, though since Detroit will eventually want (or need) to increase his DH at-bats, perhaps Martinez could be tested as a first baseman down the road so he and Cabrera could split time between the two positions.

With opt-out clauses becoming more frequent around baseball, it’s possible that Martinez could also seek this type of flexibility. Rather than a six-year extension, he could take a contract of only five years (or maybe even four years but with a high AAV) that includes an opt-out after two seasons. That would give Martinez the option of hitting free agency after the 2019 campaign as he heads into his age-32 season, and potentially finding a larger deal that would secure him guaranteed money even deeper into his 30’s.

An extension of six years/$138MM (at least) for Martinez would have seemed inconceivable when he was unceremoniously released by the Astros three years ago. The Tigers obviously thought Martinez had potential, though even they must be surprised by the three years of superstar-level hitting they’ve received, at a discount price. The time for bargains is over, however, as the Tigers have to decide if they’re willing to commit a hefty sum towards someone who is increasingly becoming a bat-only player, even though that bat is one of the game’s best.

Photo courtesy of Richard Mackson/USA Today Sports Images

J.D. Martinez To DL With Fractured Bone In Elbow

By Jeff Todd | June 16, 2016 at 10:53pm CDT

Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez left tonight’s action with what has been diagnosed as a non-displaced fracture of the radial neck of his right elbow, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press reports (Twitter links). Martinez will undergo a CT scan tomorrow to further assess the injury, but he’s already headed for the 15-day DL, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link).

Preliminary expectations are that Martinez will miss four to six weeks, though it would appear that we’ll need to await a full assessment before the timeline is fully clear. Youngster Steven Moya will return to the majors to take his place.

[Related: Updated Tigers depth chart]

The injury occurred when Martinez reached out to brace himself as he chased a ball into the right-field corner. He appeared to make contact with the wall at a funny angle, and immediately reacted in pain.

It’s a big loss for the Tigers, who are fighting for position in a tightly-bunched AL Central. Martinez continues to provide big-time offensive production from the heart of the order. The 28-year-old, once a reclamation project, has now established himself as one of the game’s most consistent sluggers who won’t easily be replaced.

Even if Martinez is able to make it back relatively quickly, it seems he’ll be out for most or all of the run-up to the trade deadline. That hurts the team’s chances of staying in the hunt and also may make it tough for the organization to assess its needs, though presumably the Tigers will at least have a good sense by that point of when Martinez will return.

Tigers, J.D. Martinez Agree To Two-Year Extension

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2016 at 7:07pm CDT

7:30pm: Martinez will receive $6.75MM this year and $11.75MM for the following campaign, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets.

7:07pm: The Tigers have reportedly bought out the remaining arbitration eligibility of outfielder J.D. Martinez. The RMG Baseball client is said to have a deal in place for two years and $18.5MM.

Martinez, 28, has long been said to be discussing a long-term pact with Detroit, but it appears that the sides have settled on a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing this year and lock in a salary for 2017 as well. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained earlier this winter, Martinez had an interesting arbitration case. He projected at $7.8MM and filed at $8MM, with the team countering at $6MM.

Obviously, the two-year arrangement won’t buy up any free agent years. But it will get the breakout star a guaranteed contract for both of the next two seasons. And the Tigers could well stand to save some money. Martinez was projected at a $4.8MM raise from his 2015 salary, and anything approaching his numbers from last season would have set him up for yet more in his final year of arb eligibility.

It remains to be seen whether this contract will set the stage for future talks — or, instead, represent a compromise agreement that lines Martinez up for the open market. We’ve seen several recent examples of arb-only extensions for prominent players, in large part as a mechanism to help resolve the initial year’s arbitration disagreement. Lorenzo Cain and the Royals did the same back in January.

In several other instances, new deals were never reached. Players such as Todd Frazier (Reds), Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals) were either traded or allowed to reach free agency. While further negotiations are hardly out of the question in Martinez’s case, the salary agreement does remove one major motivator for further talks.

Martinez looks to be a bargain at that rate — as would be expected given the way the arb system works. He’s been nothing short of outstanding since coming to the Tigers as a minor league free agent before the 2014 campaign. Martinez owns a composite .296/.350/.543 slash and has hit 61 home runs over 1,137 plate appearances for Detroit. It’s fair to note, too, that Martinez received positive marks in right field last year from both UZR and DRS.

Robert Murray of Baseball Essential first noted “unconfirmed rumblings” of a two-year, $18.5MM deal on Twitter. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation confirmed the deal, years, and dollars (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

By Steve Adams | February 5, 2016 at 9:14am CDT

The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Tigers, J.D. Martinez Discussing Extension

By Steve Adams | January 22, 2016 at 1:39pm CDT

The Tigers and right fielder J.D. Martinez have had discussions about a long-term extension, the outfielder himself told MLive.com’s Chris Iott yesterday. “It’s definitely something we’re still talking about,” Martinez said. “It’s something I think both sides are still interested in. We haven’t come to something where we both feel comfortable yet. I love this team. I want to be part of this team. I would love to be a Tiger for life. We’ve just got to see how it goes.”

General manager Al Avila deflected questions when asked about the status of negotiations, speaking highly of Martinez as a player but neglecting to divulge any sort of details into discussions. The Tigers and Martinez have an unresolved arbitration case at present, with Detroit having filed a $6MM salary figure and Martinez having filed an $8MM figure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $7.8MM salary for Martinez in 2016 and explained in a full breakdown of Martinez’s arbitration case that most players in his service class coming off 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons ultimately sign multi-year deals, leaving few recent comparables as the two sides work to avoid a hearing.

In previewing the Tigers’ offseason, I raised the subject of a possible Martinez extension, estimating that if Martinez’s remaining arbitration years can be valued in the vicinity of $20MM (give or take a million), a six-year deal that paid him $20-22MM per free-agent season would be a reasonable outcome. Given the open-market contracts we’ve seen for Martinez’s new teammate Justin Upton as well as Jason Heyward and the rumored five-year offer to Yoenis Cespedes from the Nationals, perhaps something on the lower end of that range would be appropriate, considering the fact that Martinez is still two full seasons from reaching the free-agent market. However, having already banked $3MM this past season and slated to earn somewhere around $7MM this season, there’s less urgency for Martinez to take a discount, as he’s already secured a good bit of financial security. Two more seasons like his 2014-15 years would put him in line for a mammoth contract entering what would be his age-30 season. Something in the vicinity of $100MM doesn’t seem unreasonable, if the Tigers believe he can sustain this production. Alternatively, the Tigers and Martinez could pursue a two-year pact that would lock in his remaining arbitration years without extending club control. Lorenzo Cain went that route earlier this week, and we’ve previously seen players such as Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann do the same.

A long-term contract for Martinez is an understandable goal for either side, but it’s more complicated for the Tigers when looking at the team’s long-term payroll. Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year extension kicks in this season, and he’s owed $248MM over the life of that contract. Similarly, Justin Verlander is owed $28MM annually through the 2019 season, Zimmermann will receive $110MM over the next five years ($18MM in 2016-17, $24MM in 2018 and $25MM in 2019-20), and Victor Martinez is owed $18MM in each of the next three seasons as well. The Tigers cannot even be certain what their payroll will look like beyond the 2017 campaign, as it’s not known whether Upton will again test the market by virtue of his contract’s opt-out clause or if he’ll opt into the remaining four years and $88.7MM remaining on his deal at that time. If Upton remains on the payroll, that would mean the Tigers already have a staggering total of roughly $122.175MM committed to five players in 2018, $105.175MM committed to four players in 2019 and $78.175MM committed to three players in 2020. Adding a guaranteed salary for Martinez onto those seasons could put the team in a precarious situation years down the line. If Upton does opt out and sign elsewhere, it becomes easier to envision adding a significant annual salary for Martinez.

Martinez wouldn’t comment on how the Upton signing impacted his chances at landing the long-term deal he seeks, only telling Iott how excited he was to add a bat like Upton’s to their already-impressive lineup. He did, however, tell Iott that he doesn’t want to negotiate an extension during the season, which effectively sets an Opening Day deadline for the two sides to hammer out a long-term pact.

Arbitration Breakdown: J.D. Martinez

By Matt Swartz | January 15, 2016 at 9:46pm CDT

Over the last few weeks, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

After struggling earlier in his career with the Astros, J.D. Martinez has come into his own with the Tigers and had a career year in 2015, making a strong case for a large raise in his second year of arbitration eligibility. Martinez had 38 home runs and 102 runs batted in, while hitting .282. After earning $3MM in 2015, our model projects him to get a healthy $4.8MM raise to $7.8MM.

As it turns out, that projection does fall within the filing figures submitted today when the sides were unable to work out a deal before the deadline. But the model is closer to Martinez’s own $8MM submission — which would reflect a $5MM raise — than Detroit’s $6MM figure — which would give him just a $3MM bump.

As player and club work to reach a compromise — or, if not, to prepare for a hearing — they will be looking closely at similarly-situated past cases. But it is difficult to find reasonable comparables for Martinez. After a player’s first year of arbitration eligibility, arbitration salaries in subsequent years are generally based only on the most recent year. For Martinez, this puts him in an esteemed class of hitters who were in the signature 30/100 range for home runs and RBIs, most of whom get healthy raises. In the previous nine years, only two such players received one-year deals in arbitration—mainly because the other seven guys who would have been eligible inked multi-year deals instead.

Notably, both of those players had much better cases than Martinez: Chris Davis hit 53 home runs with 138 RBIs in 2013, leading to a $7.05MM raise, while Jacoby Ellsbury hit .321 with 39 stolen bases in addition to his 32 home runs and 105 RBIs in 2012, en route to a $5.65MM raise. These players certainly look like ceilings for Martinez, so it seemed unlikely he could pin down $5.65MM or above — a doubt that his representatives obviously shared, as reflected in the filing number.

However, nearly everyone else in Martinez’s service class in recent years appears to be a floor. In the last nine years, the third highest raise for a second-year eligible hitter who did not sign a multi-year deal went to Hunter Pence, who received only $3.4MM in 2011. He hit .282 with 25 home runs and 91 RBIs. Although Pence stole 18 bases, far more than Martinez’s three, I have found that power is much more important than speed in arbitration cases and Martinez’s superior power numbers should help him easily out-earn Pence’s $3.4MM raise. The fact that Pence’s cases was five years ago only makes that clearer.

Lucas Duda was another recent player with 30 home runs going into his second year of eligibility, but he only hit .253 and only had 92 RBIs, so his raise was just $1.6375. He seems like an even less relevant comparable.

The fact that no player in Martinez’s service class has gotten a one-year deal with a raise anywhere between Pence’s $3.4MM raise and Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise made it difficult to tell how accurate our $4.8MM projection might be. It may be that some other player could be discussed as a comparable, but it is hard to see who’d be suitable.

In cases like this, there are often multi-year deals that teams and players are both willing to sign in the face of this type of uncertainty, so that could happen here — as they’ve previously discussed — especially now that there’s a fairly sizable gulf to bridge. But even in that case, it is not clear who could be a model, since most of the multi-year deals for similar power hitters have been inked earlier in player’s careers.

In the end, I view the $4.8MM raise as a reasonable mark, with the entire $3.4MM to $5.65MM range appearing defensible. Given the filed values, Martinez seems to have the more reasonable position, though both parties will have plenty of incentive to work something out rather than trusting the decision to an arbitration panel.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2016 at 7:16pm CDT

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter )
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)

Quick Hits: Strauss, Tigers, Castellanos, Martinez

By Mark Polishuk | December 27, 2015 at 11:47pm CDT

Joe Strauss, who covered the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals over three decades as a reporter and columnist for several news outlets, passed away today at age 54 due to complications from a battle with leukemia. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko are just a few of the many peers who paid tribute to Strauss with chronicles of his outstanding career and remembrances of their friend and colleague. Countless news items from Strauss appeared on this website’s pages over the years, and all of us on the MLB Trade Rumors staff send our condolences to Strauss’ friends and family.

Here are some notes from around the game as we head into a new week…

The Tigers have been getting calls about Nick Castellanos, Tony Paul of the Detroit News reports. Castellanos was a 2010 first-rounder and a former top prospect, though he’s underwhelmed both offensively and defensively in two full Major League seasons, posting negative fWAR totals in both 2014 and 2015. These struggles notwithstanding, it’s probably unlikely that Detroit would move Castellanos since he’s only 23 and under team control through the 2019 season.
Also from Paul, he guesses that once J.D. Martinez and the Tigers get talking about an extension, the negotiations will be in the neighborhood of a four-year, $60MM deal. This contract could be backloaded, which would allow the team to pursue more upgrades now and pay Martinez his biggest salaries later once other large contracts have come off the books. Martinez is entering his age-28 season now and has two remaining years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency, so under Paul’s projected extension, Martinez would reach the open market as a 32-year-old having given up two free agent years. The $60MM number may be a little conservative, in my view, given how first-rate hitting is at a premium.
While the Tigers aren’t shy about spending, Paul doesn’t think the team will stray too far (if at all) over the luxury tax limit, so landing a top outfield name like Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon is probably unrealistic. Detroit could move another big contract like Ian Kinsler to make payroll space, though Paul points out that the team would just be creating a new hole at second base to solve a hole in left field. The Tigers could instead save any payroll room for a trade deadline addition.
At the Winter Meetings, Orioles manager Buck Showalter told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the club was willing to surrender its first round draft pick (14th overall) to sign the right qualifying offer free agent but it wouldn’t be without great consideration. “It would have to be something that really fits. But we would if we had to,” Showalter said. “But one of our big days is going to be…in June, we got seven picks in the first 100 in the draft. I don’t know if we’ve ever had that. This is big for us. We can solidify our already strong system.” An interesting wrinkle to Showalter’s statement is that the O’s are actually guaranteed to have only five picks within the first 91 selections. They would only receive those two other picks if QO free agents Wei-Yin Chen and Chris Davis both signed elsewhere. Since Showalter’s statement was made during the Meetings, it would’ve come roughly around the time that Baltimore pulled its $150MM offer to Davis off the table, so the manager’s words could be interpreted as a hint that the O’s could be prepared to move on from the first baseman (though the two sides have since continued to talk).

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