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J.D. Martinez

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Mets Notes: JDM, Quintana, Manaea

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A season filled with OMGs and Grimace memes came to an end this weekend when the Dodgers toppled the Mets in a 10-5 win that propelled L.A. to a World Series showdown and left the Mets looking ahead to the 2025 campaign. New York’s roster is teeming with veteran free agents, and president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff will have their work cut out for them in reshaping the roster this offseason. Several outgoing Mets free agents made clear they’d have interest in returning, including some aging vets who are getting into the latter stages of their career.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez joked “pickleball” when asked what the future held for him (video link via SNY). The 37-year-old slugger said first and foremost, his future includes heading home to be with his new daughter, who he has barely seen since she was born in September. Beyond the family time, Martinez made clear that he hopes to continue his playing career but only if teams take the initiative. “I’m not going to come back because I’m begging to come back,” said Martinez. “I’m going to come back because it makes sense. At the end of the day, time is the most valuable thing.”

Presumably, that means there’s a price point at which Martinez won’t feel compelled to commit to further time away from his growing young family. But the slugger also recently appeared on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast and told host Rob Bradford that frustration over a general lack of interest last offseason led him to ponder retirement.

“I felt like it was just an awkward year,” said Martinez (video link). “Here I am, the team’s breaking in five days, and I don’t even have a team yet. Your brain goes into a weird mode, where you’re like ’Am I playing? Am I not? Am I playing? Am I not? Is this it? Am I retired? … We weren’t asking for anything that, at the time, I feel like other players hadn’t gotten.”

Martinez went on to say that he waited all offseason for offers to materialize and “100%” considered retiring, even telling his best friend: “I think this it. I’m staying home. This is dumb. I’m begging for a job, and I had a .900 OPS last year.”

Heading into the 2024-25 offseason, Martinez won’t be coming off the same type of campaign he enjoyed with the Dodgers in 2023. During his lone year in L.A., he bashed 33 homers and hit .271/.321/.572 in 479 plate appearances. Martinez was still a clearly above-average bat this past season, but a sluggish start after signing late (March 23) and a dismal finish to the season left him with a .235/.320/.406 batting line. That was about eight percent better than average, by measure of wRC+ (108).

An optimist could toss out a slow two weeks to start the season and overlook that finish to see that from mid-May through late August, Martinez hit .251/.336/.459 with 16 homers in 387 plate appearances, but teams won’t be so charitable as to just write those struggles off and focus only on his peak in-season production. Martinez did note that he’s encouraged by his batted-ball metrics even though the ultimate production wasn’t in line with his best work, and to his credit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He also cut back on his career-worst 2023 strikeout rate and improved his walk rate to its highest level since 2019.

Teammate Jose Quintana was more direct and more straightforward in his intentions to return next year. The 35-year-old lefty told reporters (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers): “I’m healthy. I feel good. I want to try one more time to win a championship. This was the closest I’ve been in my career. One day I’m going to get the opportunity.”

Quintana, 36 in January, pitched 170 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball for the Mets in 2024 — the second season of a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate don’t necessarily support that level of success, but Quintana was a reliable source of innings and has a lengthy track record of quality rotation work in the majors. Starting pitching is always in demand, and he has a good chance at commanding another eight-figure salary on a one-year deal — if not potential to find a similar two-year deal to the one he just completed.

Age considerations aren’t as prominent for 32-year-old Sean Manaea, who’s all but a lock to decline a $13.5MM player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Manaea has signed back-to-back “prove it” deals, so to speak, signing consecutive two-year deals with opt-out opportunities. He opted out of his deal with the Giants following the 2023 season, will opt out of his Mets deal next month, and is now finally in position to command the type of lengthier multi-year deal that’s eluded him to this point in free agency. The Mets will very likely make him a qualifying offer, but even with draft compensation attached to his name, Manaea could command a three-year pact this time around.

The left-hander pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings, plus another 19 in the postseason. His regular season ended with a 3.47 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He was hit hard in his final start — the one that ended the Mets’ season — but held opponents to five runs in 17 innings across his first three postseason starts (2.65 ERA).

Time will tell whether Manaea is back in New York, but the southpaw emphasized how much he loved his time with the organization and called the 2024 campaign the best season of his career (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “I love my time here,” said Manaea. “I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here. Definitely give it a couple of days, let the body rest and then we’ll go from there.”

In addition to the trio of Martinez, Manaea and Quintana, the Mets will also see Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias, Drew Smith and Ryne Stanek all become free agents after the World Series.

Mets Designate Zack Short For Assignment

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The Mets announced that outfielder J.D. Martinez has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, with infielder Zack Short designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Martinez, 36, signed a one-year deal with the club last month. That deal came about very late in the offseason, not being made official until March 23, when Spring Training was effectively done. Players with at least five years of service time cannot be optioned to the minors without their consent, but Martinez agreed to be sent down since he missed the spring and needed to get some at-bats.

His return should bolster the Mets lineup, as he is a .287/.350/.524 hitter in his career and is coming off a strong season with the Dodgers. He seemed to be selling out for power last year, as his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career high by four points, but he also hit 33 home runs and slashed .271/.321/.572. Manager Carlos Mendoza indicated earlier this week that the club was planning to activate Martinez today, which was now come to fruition.

Martinez was already on the 40-man roster but the Mets had limited options in terms of getting him onto the active roster. The only optionable position players currently on the squad are Brett Baty and DJ Stewart. Baty has been the club’s everyday third baseman this year while Stewart has been great at the plate. Going back to his time with the club last year, he’s hit 14 home runs in 240 plate appearances. He has struck out at a hefty 28.7% clip but also drawn walks 10.4% of the time.

That left the Mets having to cut someone who is out of options and they decided on Short. The infielder, who turns 29 next month, was claimed off waivers from the Tigers in November. He took 12 plate appearances with the Mets this year and produced a line of just .111/.273/.111 in that time.

He spent the past three years with the Tigers and has a career batting line of .172/.266/.304 in 462 plate appearances. He’s been better in Triple-A, having slashed .226/.361/.397 since the start of 2021 while drawing walks in 16.2% of his appearances at that level. Since he’s played all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, he could be a solid utility piece if his major league offense were a bit more like his minor league work.

The Mets will have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. In his absence, Joey Wendle will be the backup infielder, with a regular alignment of Baty, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso on the dirt.

NL East Notes: Martinez, Ruiz, Strider

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The Mets are hoping that veteran slugger J.D. Martinez can join the big league club to make his debut on Friday, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). In the meantime, DiComo adds that Martinez will move his rehab assignment up to Triple-A Syracuse while he works toward being ready to return to the big leagues. Martinez, 36, signed with the Mets on a one-year deal just before Opening Day. Thanks to the slugger missing the entirety of Spring Training, he began the season in the minor leagues in order to build up for his debut with the big league Mets.

That process hit almost an immediate snag after Martinez found himself sidelined by “general body soreness” just two games into his rehab process. It was initially expected that Martinez would only need a few days off, but he hasn’t appeared in any games during the two weeks since then. That’s now set to change, however, with Martinez scheduled to get his final reps in at the Triple-A level before finally making his debut in Queens against the Cardinals, assuming things go smoothly from here. Should Martinez indeed be ready to come up on Friday, it would provide a boost to a Mets club that has already won six straight and ten of their last twelve to place themselves just 2.5 games back of Atlanta for the lead in the NL East.

The addition of Martinez, a six-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner, to the club’s lineup should help to further bolster a lineup that has already delivered a solid 109 wRC+ that ranks ninth among all MLB clubs this season. He’ll be particularly valuable for his power output; while the Mets currently rank middle of the pack with an ISO of just .141 and 22 home runs as a team, Martinez sports an incredible .237 ISO for his career and crushed 33 homers in just 113 games with the Dodgers last year.

More from around the NL East…

  • When Nationals backstop Keibert Ruiz was placed on the 10-day injured list because of the flu last week, it was a bit of an unusual diagnosis as illnesses rarely keep players out for more than a couple of days. Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post reported this afternoon that Ruiz’s case was severe enough that he’s lost between 18 and 20 pounds due to the illness, which has sidelined him since April 9. Fortunately, the young catcher seems to be doing better at this point, as Nusbaum adds that Ruiz is expected to head out for a rehab assignment in the coming days. Ruiz got off to a tough start at the plate with a slash line of just .194/.265/.290 in 34 plate appearances this year but nonetheless figures to take over regular catching duties for the Nats upon his return, where Riley Adams and Drew Millas have split time in Ruiz’s absence.
  • Braves right-hander Spencer Strider won’t pitch again this season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his UCL earlier this month, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) earlier this week that he hadn’t actually torn his UCL. Instead, Strider noted that imaging revealed that a bone fragment had formed inside his UCL in the years since he first underwent surgery on the elbow back in 2019. Strider also revealed that he had been nursing discomfort in his elbow dating back to Spring Training, though at the time he attempted to pitch through it as it hadn’t impacted his velocity. The 25-year-old has emerged as one of the league’s most talented starters in recent years, posting a 3.36 ERA and 2.43 FIP in 318 1/3 innings of work between the 2022 and ’23 seasons. Atlanta has turned to right-hander Darius Vines to fill Strider’s spot in the rotation for the time being, though it’s possible another arm such as Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver could enter the mix for Strider’s starts at some point this season.

New York Notes: Belt, Martinez, Cole

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Veteran slugger Brandon Belt’s free agency has surprisingly dragged into the regular season, with the soon to be 36-year-old reportedly “baffled” by the lack of offers he’s received to this point. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly provided additional details on Belt’s free agency recently, noting that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a guaranteed contract this winter, though he added that the deal was “almost entirely” incentives-based.

Belt is coming off an excellent season with the Blue Jays that saw him slash .254/.369/.490 with 404 trips to the plate. That included a fantastic 146 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the eleventh-best figure among all qualified hitters last year which trailed only Shohei Ohtani among this winter’s free agents. The performance was more or less par for the course for Belt, who’s hit .258/.369/.503 since the start of the 2020 season and is a career .261/.357/.460 hitter for his career. That type of production certainly would’ve made sense for the Mets, though the club ultimately landed slugger J.D. Martinez on a one-year deal to plug the hole in the lineup at DH.

With that said, it’s somewhat surprising that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a big league deal this winter. The only player on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agents list still unsigned, Belt was predicted for a one-year, $15MM deal this winter. That would’ve been a small bump over the one-year, $9.3MM deal he landed with Toronto prior to 2023 on the heels of a below-average showing at the plate during his final season with the Giants. Belt recently indicated that he still hopes to play in 2024, but also noted that he doesn’t want to settle for a minor league contract after his strong season last year.

More from the New York teams…

  • Sticking with the Mets, Martinez was expected to make his debut with the club during this week’s series against the Braves, but that plan appears to have been scuttled. As relayed by MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Martinez is dealing with “general body soreness” and is not yet ready for his big league debut. Now, DiComo reports that the plan is for Martinez to take the next two days off and return to minor league action on Tuesday, with Friday as the earliest Martinez could make his big league Mets debut. The 36-year-old slugger slashed an impressive .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs in 113 games with the Dodgers last year and figures to provide a major boost to the big league lineup, which ranks 28th in the majors with a 64 wRC+ so far in the young 2024 campaign.
  • Looking toward the Bronx, Yankees fans received positive news regarding ace right-hander Gerrit Cole this morning, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that Cole is nearing the beginnings of a throwing program. Cole started the season on the injured list while rehabbing nerve inflammation on his elbow, and now is expected to begin playing catch as soon as tomorrow. Cole, 33, is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner and a six-time All Star who pitched to a sterling 2.63 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in 209 innings of work. If the right-hander can make a relatively speedy return from his rehab, it would surely provide a major boost to the Yankees as they look to return to the postseason.

MLBTR Podcast: A Live Reaction To The Jordan Montgomery Signing, Ohtani’s Interpreter, And J.D. Martinez Joins The Mets

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Luis García Jr, Lance McCullers Jr, and Kendall Graveman of the Astros are likely out, at the very least, until mid-June.  How come none of these guys are on the 60-day injured list?  Do you seen the Astros moving them there and if so, when? (49:15)
  • Do you think it’s possible that the league begins to follow the Angels and Rangers footsteps and call up recent draft picks as soon as they show any signs of potential? Also, do you think it is at all possible that teams start to call up teenagers? (52:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mets Sign J.D. Martinez

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Martinez’s signing.

MARCH 22: Martinez has given his consent to open the 2024 season in the minors, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He’ll spend about 10 days either in extended spring training or in Triple-A to ramp up and get at-bats before joining the big league club early in the season.

MARCH 21: The Mets are in agreement with J.D. Martinez on a one-year, $12MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The deal, which is pending a physical, has a net present value that will come in below $12MM on account of deferrals.

Andy Martino of SNY reports (on X) that the Mets will only pay $4.5MM of the salary this year. The remaining $7.5MM will be paid in $1.5MM annual installments between 2034-38. Martinez is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Martinez, 36, was the best unsigned offensive player. After signing a $10MM free agent deal with the Dodgers last offseason, he earned his sixth All-Star nod amidst a 33-homer campaign. That was his highest home run total since 2019, while his .271/.321/.572 batting line was also his best overall offensive production in four years. Martinez hadn’t been a bad hitter over the intervening three seasons, but last year’s work was a step up from the cumulative .269/.336/.469 slash he had posted in his final three seasons with the Red Sox.

Strong as that production was, it didn’t come without red flags. Martinez’s pure contact skills regressed as his profile became more dependent on power. He struck out in more than 31% of his plate appearances, the highest rate of his career. Martinez made contact on a below-average 67.5% of his swings, the first time that he whiffed on more than 30% of his cuts.

That’s not a problem so long as he continues to destroy the ball when he does make contact. Martinez certainly did that last season. More than 54% of his batted balls came off the bat at 95+ MPH. That’s his best hard contact percentage since Statcast began tracking in 2015. The huge exit velocities manifested in Martinez’s slugging production.

While the bat speed remains intact, the increase in whiffs seemed to lead to some trepidation around the league. His profile is entirely built on offense. Martinez was never a great defender, but he’s almost exclusively a designated hitter at this point. He has started one game on defense over the last two seasons, logging 12 innings in the corner outfield overall.

The lack of a position was perhaps the main reason Martinez spent much time in free agency at all. On the surface, he’d have been a reasonable candidate for a $20.325MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Los Angeles decided not to risk that early in an offseason in which they would (successfully) pursue Shohei Ohtani, though. Martinez doesn’t come attached to draft compensation as a result.

That kicked off four and a half months on the open market for the three-time Silver Slugger winner. The Giants reportedly made an offer in the $14-15MM range at one point this offseason, but his camp turned that down. It’s not known if San Francisco’s proposal would have included any deferrals, but the ultimate deal which Martinez accepted comes in south of that previous offer before considering the delayed payments.

For the past few weeks, his free agency has seemed to be a staring contest between his camp and the Mets. Teams like the Angels and Marlins reportedly showed late interest, but no club was more consistently tied to him than New York. Ultimately, Martinez’s ask dipped to a place where the Mets felt compelled to jump and plug him into the middle of the batting order. He’ll join Pete Alonso as a scary duo of righty power bats for opposing pitchers.

The Mets didn’t get much out of the designated hitter position a year ago. Their DH group hit .217/.309/.391 with 27 homers. They finished in the bottom third of the league in all three slash stats. Martinez should be a clear step up even if he continues to strike out at an elevated clip. New York has maintained they still expect to hang in the Wild Card mix this year despite viewing the 2025 season as the start of their next true contention window.

Part of that balancing act was figuring out how much trust to put in their young hitters, namely Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. They entered camp with Baty penciled in as the primary third baseman and Vientos set for the majority of at-bats at DH. Adding Martinez closes off the latter path to playing time. Baty and Vientos could now compete for work at third base. Baty hits left-handed, while Vientos bats from the right side. That could allow first-year skipper Carlos Mendoza to play match-ups if they’re each on the roster, although both players have an option remaining and could be sent to Triple-A without landing on waivers.

The Mets are subject to the highest luxury tax fees possible under the CBA. They’re past the $297MM mark that’s the highest penalization threshold; they’ve paid the CBT in three consecutive years. As a result, they’re charged a 110% fee on future expenditures. The deferred money reduces the net present value of Martinez’s contract, so it’s not yet clear precisely how much the Mets will owe in CBT commitments.

A one-year, $12MM deal without any deferred money would’ve come with $13.2MM in luxury taxes. RosterResource’s Jon Becker estimates that the NPV of Martinez’s deal will land just under $9MM. That’d come with a little less than $10MM in luxury obligations.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels, Mets Remain Engaged With J.D. Martinez

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Regular season baseball is just over the horizon but many free agents remain unsigned. Two of the most notable of those free agents are left-hander Blake Snell and designated hitter J.D. Martinez, both of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation. The Halos were connected to both of those players back in December and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Halos are still talking about both of them. In a separate column, Heyman adds that the Mets also remain involved with Martinez, to whom they were connected last month.

It’s unclear if the Angels are making a serious push for a late signing or merely keeping tabs as the players linger on the open market into the middle of March, but they are one of the few clubs that make for a logical fit for a notable deal at this point. Many teams around the league have exhausted their respective budgets by this stage of the calendar, with some of them having concerns around luxury tax payments or uncertainty around TV revenue streams.

But the Angels are below their previous levels of spending, both in terms of pure payroll expenditures and competitive balance tax calculations. RosterResource currently lists their payroll at $174MM and their CBT number at $189MM for 2024. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Halos had an Opening Day payroll of $212MM last year, $38MM above where they are now. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, which gives the club $48MM of space if they want to stay below the tax, which is a line they hovered around last year.

Owner Arte Moreno has previously stated that the club is planning on operating with a lower payroll this year, but without specifics about exactly where they want to end up. Given the gaps between last year’s spending and this year’s, it’s possible to envision another signing coming together while still fulfilling his plan of reduced overall expenditures.

Many observers wondered if the club would look to mount a rebuild in the post-Shohei Ohtani era, but general manager Perry Minasian firmly stated at the start of the offseason that the club would not be doing that and was actually planning an aggressive offseason.

Thus far, the club has directed most of its efforts to the bullpen, signing Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber and José Cisnero. On the position player side, their most notable addition was signing Aaron Hicks, who they will only have to pay the league minimum since the Yankees are still on the hook for his contract. Their most significant rotation addition was a $1MM signing of Zach Plesac, who has already been optioned to the minors.

Adding Martinez would be a clear upgrade to the club’s lineup, as he has a long track record of effective hitting and is coming off a 33-home run campaign with the Dodgers. The roster fit is a little awkward since Martinez is primarily a DH at this point, having only played 12 innings in the field over the last two years combined. The Angels technically have an open DH spot with Ohtani’s departure but may want to use that for their various aging or injury-prone players. Both Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout are the club’s two highest-paid players and each has missed significant time in the past few years as they have pushed into their 30s. Giving them occasional DH time and keeping them fresh might be preferable to locking up the DH spot with Martinez. Similar logic could apply to other players in their 30s like Brandon Drury or Hicks.

Previous reporting has suggested that Martinez turned down an offer of $14MM from the Giants while looking for either a two-year deal, a salary near $20MM or both. The Angels could accommodate that without reaching last year’s spending levels, though they would have to weigh the benefits of adding his bat to the lineup against the reduced ability to rest their other players, as well as the financial cost.

Snell would certainly cost more but it’s much easier to imagine him fitting onto the roster. The Halos have a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth. Everyone in that group can still be optioned apart from Anderson, while Silseth has just 81 major league innings under his belt. At this late stage in the offseason, Snell would likely have to miss the opening of the schedule anyway and injuries may have popped up by the time he’s fully stretched out. Even if he can’t be expected to repeat last year’s Cy Young-winning season that finished with a 2.25 ERA, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and would upgrade any rotation.

The lefty reportedly turned down an offer of $150MM over six years from the Yankees, average annual value of $25MM, with Snell looking for either a salary in the $30MM range or a longer pact. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Anderson’s three-year, $39MM is the largest the Angels have given to a starting pitcher since 2012, both in terms of years and guaranteed dollars.

Despite that apparent distaste to giving lengthy free agent pacts to pitchers, it’s possible to imagine the two sides coming together. Snell is reportedly open to a shorter pact with higher AAVs and opt-outs, similar to those signed by fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. That type of deal is difficult for a club that has already spent a huge chunk of its budget or has tax bills to think about. The Yankees, for instance, would have to pay $33MM in taxes in order to give Snell a contract with a $30MM AAV this year. As mentioned above, the Halos have plenty of spending capacity before they even reach last year’s payroll or come close to the CBT line. Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so signing him would also cost the Angels their second-highest pick in this summer’s draft as well as $500K of their international bonus pool.

Until a deal comes together, the rotation will project to be that fivesome of Detmers, Sandoval, Anderson, Canning and Silseth. The club has been stretching out some other guys, such as Andrew Wantz and José Soriano, but they are apparently behind the front five. Manager Ron Washington tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that Wantz and Soriano will stay stretched out for now but won’t earn a rotation spot unless there’s an injury to one of the other five guys.

As for the Mets, they have been connected to Martinez previously, but with the caveat that they were leaning towards giving at-bats to younger players like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos. Those two could split the third base job and the DH slot, with Joey Wendle perhaps filling in at third on defense from time to time while DJ Stewart could perhaps take some plate appearances as the DH.

Both of Baty and Vientos are optionable and could therefore be sent to the minors, but it makes sense that the Mets would want to give them some run at the big league level. Vientos has hit just .205/.255 /.354 in the majors but has slashed .290/.369/.554 at Triple-A over the last two years. Similarly, Baty has hit .210/.272/.325 in the big leagues but .311/.405/.554 in the minors over the past two years.

Since neither of them have much left to prove on the farm and the Mets are planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, there’s logic to letting them face big league pitchers to see if either takes a step forward. Signing Martinez would also come with a hefty financial cost, as the Mets are set to be third-time payors of the CBT and are above the fourth tier of penalization. That means they face a 110% tax on any money they add to their books. Giving Martinez $15MM for this year, just as an example, would also involve paying $16.5MM in taxes and a total expense of $31.5MM.

If the club is willing to consider such an expenditure, it would lengthen the lineup as they walk a tightrope in 2024. They mostly limited themselves to one-year deals this offseason as they look to field a competitive team but without sacrificing too much of their future flexibility. Signing Martinez could lengthen their lineup here in 2024 but would also come with the opportunity cost of having less playing time for guys like Baty and Vientos, as well as the aforementioned financial elements.

In addition to the Angels, Snell has continued to garner interest from other clubs, with the Giants connected to him earlier this month. The Yankees may revisit their talks with Snell if they get bad news regarding Gerrit Cole’s MRI, though recent reporting has suggested they may be more likely to trade for Dylan Cease due to his lower salary and tax hit. Martinez was recently connected to the Marlins, in addition to the talks with the Mets and Angels.

Marlins, J.D. Martinez Have Had Recent Discussions

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The Marlins and free agent slugger J.D. Martinez have had recent talks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The slugger has been seeking a two-year deal. Mish notes that the Marlins have been planning to keep the DH spot open and rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger and others through that spot. There doesn’t appear to be a fit between the two parties at the moment, he adds, though one would imagine that’s in part due to Martinez’s asking price.

Even if there’s no current fit, the conversations are of note. It shows at least some willingness from Miami to spend further in free agency, and it adds a new entrant to the Martinez mix, should his price drop to a certain point. Presumably, if the price fell to the point where a typically low-spending club like Miami was comfortable, other teams currently not in the mix for Martinez would also show interest.

The 36-year-old Martinez just wrapped up a strong rebound season with the Dodgers, wherein he slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs. Last year’s 7.1% walk rate was Martinez’s lowest since establishing himself as a big league regular, however, while his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career-high. That could suggest an aging hitter who’s selling out for more power at the expense of his once better-than-average contact skills, but even if that’s the case, the results are hard to argue with. The question moving forward is whether that approach is conducive to further success — particularly over a multi-year deal.

Martinez posted off-the-charts batted ball data in 2023. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 17% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. When Martinez did make contact, there was practically no one who did so with more authority. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are the only qualified hitters in baseball with a higher average exit velocity than Martinez’s 2023 mark. Only Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson and Juan Soto hit a higher percentage of their batted balls at 95 mph or more.

In Miami, Martinez would effectively be replacing Jorge Soler, who opted out of the final year and $13MM on his contract and eventually signed a three-year, $42MM deal with the Giants. Martinez, in some ways, is an older version of that same skill set: he’s a right fielder whose dwindling defensive prowess makes him best-suited for DH work, and his batted-ball data and production against left-handed pitching are elite, as is the case with Soler. Martinez has more even platoon splits than Soler, but he also struck out far more often last season than Soler.

The Marlins made practically no attempt to re-sign Soler, so it’s surprising to see them checking in with Martinez. Perhaps it’s simply a matter of trying to land a bargain upgrade for the lineup late in the year as the asking price on many free agents drop. But the Marlins probably do have enough money left to make a deal for Martinez work, even if his price hasn’t bottomed out. RosterResource pegs Miami at a projected $101.6MM Opening Day payroll — about $8.4MM shy of last season’s end-of-year mark.

Even if they’re not willing to stretch beyond last year’s payroll level — which probably would rule out getting Martinez on a one-year deal — the Fish could probably offer Martinez a backloaded two-year arrangement. The only contracts on the Marlins’ books in 2025 are Avisail Garcia ($12MM) and Sandy Alcantara ($17MM). They’ll also owe Garcia a $5MM buyout on a 2026 option.

That number will spike, as Miami has a huge arbitration class headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera (with several other role players also mixed in). Even still, there ought to be enough room for the Fish to creatively structure a deal to bring Martinez into the fold — if owner Bruce Sherman green-lights that type of expenditure. Whether he’ll do so remains an open question. Miami sat out free agency for the entire offseason before signing Tim Anderson to a one-year, $5MM contract recently. The team has shown little appetite for free agent spending in recent years and has frequently been burned when choosing to do so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).

Latest On Giants’ Past Negotiations With J.D. Martinez

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Reports yesterday indicated that veteran slugger J.D. Martinez had turned down a contract offer from the Giants earlier this offseason, before the club ultimately landed Jorge Soler on a three-year deal. There have been conflicting reports regarding the nature of the sides breaking off negotiations, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman suggesting that Martinez simply “didn’t want to go” to San Francisco while Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported that Martinez made a counteroffer to the Giants that club brass “weren’t comfortable with.”

This morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand shed additional light on the situation, reporting that the Giants’ initial offer to Martinez was a one-year deal worth $14MM. The two reports diverge from there, however, with Nightengale indicating that Martinez rejected the contract in pursuit of a two-year deal while Feinsand reports that Martinez was seeking $20MM and declined San Francisco’s offer despite potentially being open to accepting “a little less” than his preferred salary figure.

Of course, it’s possible there’s elements of truth to both reports. Speculatively speaking, it could be the case that Martinez’s preference would be a two-year deal in the range of $20MM annually, though he may be willing to accept a one-year deal at the higher end of that range or a two-year pact for a slightly lower AAV. That would fall in line would fall roughly in line with MLBTR’s prediction for Martinez’s contract, which sat at two years and $40MM.  It remains to be seen whether or not Martinez will actually be able to earn that sum, of course. The offseason’s top offensive free agent behind Shohei Ohtani, outfielder Cody Bellinger, settled for a three-year, $80MM deal earlier this morning. It’s possible that Bellinger’s deal clocking in below expectations is a concerning signal for Martinez, though with him off the board Martinez’s biggest rival on the positional market is third baseman Matt Chapman, who figures to have a different set of suitors than the veteran slugger.

Martinez figures to be an impact bat for the club that eventually lands him, even as he enters his age-36 season. After slashing an excellent .292/.363/.526 across 637 games in a Red Sox uniform from 2018 to 2022 en route to four All Star appearances and a top-four finish in AL MVP voting, Martinez took a one-year deal with the Dodgers last winter and revamped his approach in L.A. to generate more power. The changes worked as intended, as he slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate after hitting just 16 homers in 596 plate appearances the previous season. That incredible power came at the expense of a significant jump in strikeouts, as his 31.1% strikeout rate last year marked the first time he was punched out at a clip over 30% in his career.

With the Giants now assuredly out of the running for Martinez’s services after signing Soler, the veteran slugger could still make sense for a handful of clubs. The Angels and Mets have both been connected to the veteran at various points this offseason, though public indications are that neither team prefers to add a full time DH to its mix. A team like the Cubs or Twins that lacks a full-time DH could at least theoretically accommodate Martinez at the position, though each club sports a crowded positional mix and figures to benefit considerably from having the DH spot available to rest players or work in more playing time for youngsters forcing their way into the lineup. If none of the aforementioned teams are interested to committing to Martinez on a high-dollar or multi-year deal, that could leave the veteran slugger forced to lower his asking price. At that point, any of the aforementioned clubs or even a low-budget club with a clear need for offense such as the Guardians could jump into the mix for Martinez’s services.

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