Javier Baez

Cubs star Javier Baez hasn’t been shy about publicly discussing his contract talks with the Cubs, and that trend continued this week as the two-time All-Star told ESPN’s Marly Rivera that extension talks with the team have been on hold since the league shut down in mid-March. Both sides decided to “leave it there,” with the 2020 season on indefinite hold, although the 27-year-old made clear that he still hopes to reach an agreement at some point.

Transactions have halted and rosters frozen during the hiatus, and extension talks were reportedly placed on hold as well. Of course, that’s a tough policy to enforce and one that could conceivably be circumvented so long as a new deal wasn’t announced or reported until the limitations were lifted. It seems that has not been the case, despite Baez’s emphasis on what a “blessing” it’d be to spend his whole career with one team and the fact that neither party feels the need to put a deadline on talks. On the other hand, Baez is keenly aware of the business side of the game and did discuss the possibility of playing with multiple teams in his chat with Rivera. The two also discussed his charitable works in Puerto Rico during the shutdown and Baez’s workouts with his brother-in-law: Twins righty Jose Berrios. Cubs fans will want to take a full look for the full breadth of his comments.

The Cubs currently control Baez through the 2021 season, after which he’ll join a historically strong class of free-agent shortstops. He and the Cubs agreed to a $10MM salary for the 2020 season over the winter, although the best-case scenario for him is now that he’d receive a prorated portion of that sum (dependent on how many games are able to be played in a shortened season). He’ll have one more trip through arbitration on the horizon, barring an agreement on a new deal.

A Baez extension would require a change of trajectory for a Cubs organization that has become increasingly averse to spending over the past two seasons. It’s easy to envision Baez, a potential face of the franchise for the better part of the next decade, as an exception to that philosophy, but it’s hard not to notice the team’s decrease in spending. Craig Kimbrel was signed last summer, but only after a prolonged stretch on the restricted list for Ben Zobrist unexpectedly opened up some funds. Chicago also brokered extensions for Kyle Hendricks (four years, $55.5MM) and David Bote (five years, $15MM) in Spring Training 2019, but a Baez deal wouldn’t be in the same stratosphere as those two deals. Outside of those deals, the Cubs have spent just over $14MM in free agency dating back to October 2018.

That said, the Cubs will also have Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana, Daniel Descalso, Steven Souza Jr. and Jeremy Jeffress come off the books this coming winter. They had been slated to enter the season with about $214MM worth of luxury-tax commitments on the books, but that number will crater to $93MM next year (not including sizable arbitration raises for Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras). It’s also perhaps telling while each of Bryant, Schwarber and Contreras saw his name kicked about the rumor circuit this past offseason — Bryant in particular — there were little to no such rumblings regarding Baez.

Whenever talks are able to resume, they’ll take place against the backdrop of sizable revenue losses for teams throughout the league — a reality that could make it more difficult for the two parties (or any two parties) to agree on a potential price point. That cuts both ways, as while the Cubs may not want to pay as much as they would have with an uninterrupted revenue stream, Baez (and other players set to hit free agency in the next couple of years) could be wary about going out into the open market at a time when owners are looking to recoup their losses. The expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 only further muddies the water, making it nearly impossible to predict just how contract negotiations of any type will play out in the foreseeable future.

While almost all of the Cubs’ star players have been mentioned as speculative trade chips this offseason, Javier Baez has just about the one exception, as there has been more focus on the possibility that he will remain in Chicago over the long term.  The Cubs and Baez’s representatives at Wasserman began talks about a multi-year extension back in November, and Baez provided something of an update to reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers) today, saying the negotiations had “been up and down” between the two sides.

“It’s business.  It’s really tough,” Baez said.  “I’ll let them work that out, and if it works, great.  If not, we have another year.”

Most major extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training has already begun (i.e. last year’s flurry of multi-year deals around the sport), so it could be that the Baez talks still start to ramp up as we approach Opening Day.  Most players prefer to have negotiations settled before the season begins to avoid distractions, and Baez didn’t entirely close the door on talks extending into the season.  “It depends on my agency and how they want to do it.  But I do want to be focused on baseball,” the shortstop said.

At the very least, Baez’s salary for the 2020 season has already been decided, as he and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM deal.  This was Baez’s second arb-eligible year, and he is schedule for one final trip through the arbitration process next winter before hitting free agency following the 2021 season.  Teammate Kris Bryant, notably, is under the same amount of team control, though he has been the subject of multiple trade rumors due to both his higher salary ($18.6MM in 2020) and Cubs ownership’s desire to avoid luxury tax payments, as well as the perception that Bryant (who is represented by Scott Boras) will be harder to sign to a long-term deal.

Baez is also 11 months younger than Bryant and is one of the sport’s better defenders at a premium position, making him perhaps a more attractive option for an extension than Bryant just in pure baseball terms, as much as money is obviously clearly a major factor in the Cubs’ decision-making.  From Baez’s perspective, “I wish and hope we both stay here.  Obviously, we want to keep everyone here because we have pretty much the team that won [the 2016 World Series].  We’ve got a lot of talent, and pretty much everyone is close to the same age.”

That said, Baez noted that personnel decisions are “up to [the team], to be honest,” and “It’s the business side….We’ve got to understand that and keep moving forward.”

Despite all of the buzz surrounding the Cubs all winter, the team hasn’t created many ripples in terms of actual moves, as Chicago has spent little on MLB free agents while also not moving in the other direction and unloading a star player (i.e. Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, etc.) in order to free up payroll space.  Extending Baez would help lessen the negativity that many Chicago fans have expressed about the team’s relative lack of action both this offseason and last, though it could also be the case that the Cubs still want to get one notable contract off the books before locking up Baez and expanding his current luxury tax number.

The Cubs have initiated discussions with star shortstop Javier Baez about a contract extension, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The course of these early-offseason negotiations could play a role in shaping the remainder of the organization’s winter roster efforts, Wittenmyer adds.

It isn’t surprising to learn that Baez is a target for a long-term deal. His play on the field made that a more or less foregone conclusion. But the timing is interesting, less so because of Baez himself than because of the potential ramifications. It isn’t as if teams never explore deals at this time of year, though it’s more common to see extensions negotiated in earnest during Spring Training.

Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said recently that the team “had a stable core for five years” but is “going to have change” this winter. (Via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter.) That obviously didn’t mean that the Chicago org was planning to blow things up, but it certainly suggests that a few roster fixtures could potentially be dangled in trade.

It doesn’t require much in the way of reading between the lines to see that the Baez talks could potentially be rather important. Getting something done with the flashy performer might make it easier for the Cubs to swing a blockbuster deal involving other key assets. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber are among the notable names that have been kicked around as speculative possibilities, though it’s unclear which if any will be seriously dangled in trade talks — let alone just what it’d take for the Cubs to part with one or more such players.

As for Baez, he projects to earn a $9.3MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. He played last year for $5.2MM, a salary that fell well shy of his projected value. Regardless, Baez has already secured significant earnings so won’t be desperate to make a deal. And he’s close enough to free agency that he will have solid leverage to bring into talks. Soon to turn 27, Baez has a good number of youthful seasons still on offer.

Talks between the Cubs and Baez’s reps at Wasserman will surely be interesting. Baez is a tough player to value in some respects, if only because he succeeds against the grain of today’s game. Baez walked just 5.0% of the time last year while turning in a 27.8% strikeout rate, but (as usual) logged a monster .345 BABIP that allowed him to carry a .281/.316/.531 batting line (114 wRC+). With glovework and baserunning included, it was a 4.4 fWAR/4.8 rWAR campaign.

The Cubs obviously believe Baez can continue to convert on his elite bat speed and other physical tools. But they’ll surely also point out some of the demerits in his game in talking about a new contract. And it’s possible the team will want to avoid taking a deal too deep into Baez’s thirties. It’ll be interesting to see what the sides settle at if they’re able to agree to terms. But it could be even more interesting to see what happens to the Cubs’ winter plans if they fail to gain traction in talks to lock down Baez for the long haul.