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Javier Baez

Latest On Cubs, Javier Baez

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TODAY: The Cubs’ offer was slightly lower than Olney’s figure, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), sitting somewhere between $160MM to $170MM.

APRIL 18: The status of extension talks between the Cubs and each of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo has been one of the biggest stories surrounding the team over the past couple years. There were some public discussions between the Cubs and Báez during the 2019-20 offseason, and Buster Olney of ESPN now sheds light on those discussions.

The Cubs offered Báez an extension “in the range of $180MM” after the 2019 season, Olney reports. Of course, the two-time All-Star declined that proposal and the sides haven’t yet managed to come to terms on a multi-year deal. The Cubs and Báez ultimately settled on a $10MM salary to avoid arbitration in 2020 (prior to proration) and agreed on an $11.65MM deal for 2021 this past offseason.

There are plenty of obstacles standing in the way of Báez securing such a lofty deal at this point. Revenue losses due to the intervening COVID-19 pandemic affected plenty of teams’ willingness to spend this past winter, the Cubs chief among them. Chicago opened 2021 with an estimated payroll just shy of $148MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, far below their $203MM outlay in the season before the pandemic. Shedding salary was no doubt a factor in the decision to trade Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal with very little recent precedent.

Even more significantly, though, Báez’s personal production has cratered since that offseason. At the time of the reported offer, the star shortstop was coming off a two-year run in which he’d hit .286/.321/.544 (123 wRC+) while playing high-end defense. He’d earned All-Star selections in both 2018 and 2019 and finished as the National League MVP runner-up in the first of those years. It’s easy to see why the Cubs felt comfortable investing in Báez long-term and why the player was willing to bet on himself continuing to perform at an elite level.

That’s not what’s happened, at least to this point. Over the past two years, Báez is hitting just .201/.241/.376 in 291 plate appearances. Controlling the strike zone has never been his calling card, but Báez’s 2.7% walk rate and 34.4% strikeout rate in that time are untenable figures. The 28-year-old has continued to play a strong shortstop, but his 63 wRC+ is fourth-worst among the 190 players to take at least 200 plate appearances over the last two years.

There had been some hope Báez could rebound from his 2020 struggles in a longer, more normal season. His bottom line results have indeed been better (albeit still below-average) thanks to the four home runs he’s popped. But Báez’s underlying process metrics are equally or more concerning. His 44.6% strikeout rate is up twelve points relative to last season, while his walks have fallen even further.

Most concerning, Báez has made contact on less than half his swings (48.7%) in this season’s early going. For reference, he connected on a little more than two-thirds of his cuts during his peak years, and even made contact at a 64.2% clip last year. Only Sam Hilliard has a lower contact rate among the 259 players with 30+ plate appearances, with every other hitter in the league putting the bat on the ball at least 54.9% of the time.

There’s plenty of time for Báez to right the ship, but he’ll need to make significantly more contact in the coming months if he’s to secure a massive deal from the Cubs or any other team. The two sides remain in contact, with Báez reiterating in February he hopes to work out an extension with Chicago rather than go elsewhere in free agency.

Latest On Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

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The Cubs entered Spring Training hopeful of securing long-term contracts with multiple pending free agents but weren’t able to come to terms with any of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez or Kris Bryant. Fans in Chicago are holding out hope that some of the team’s 2016 core can be retained, but Rizzo gave little reason for optimism today when appearing on the Kap & Hood show on ESPN 1000 radio (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago).

Rizzo, who already indicated that he was “at peace” with the lack of progress just prior to Opening Day, said that he feels the Cubs have had a “fair” opportunity to get a deal done both in 2021 and in years past, but nothing has come together.

“I don’t see any reason for us to listen,” the first baseman said in response to the Cubs’ recent efforts. Obviously, a sizable increase in years and/or dollars would surely change that thinking, but the team’s reported initial offer — five years and $70MM, per The Athletic — didn’t get the ball rolling.

The 32-year-old Rizzo has already inked one club-friendly deal in the past and delivered considerable surplus value to the Cubs over the life of that contract. For some context, Chicago’s reported offer of $70MM clocked in at just  north of half the five-year, $130MM commitment the Cardinals made to Paul Goldschmidt for what will be the same block of his career (his age-32 through age-36 seasons).

Of course, Goldschmidt was coming off a brilliant run with the D-backs at that point and had slashed .290/.389/.533 in his final season prior to being traded to St. Louis; Rizzo’s .222/.342/.414 slash in last year’s shortened season was his least-productive showing since 2013. It’s understandable both that Rizzo would feel the offer to be well below market and that the Cubs may be a bit cautious with their long-term overture after a down year in 2020. As things stand, the disconnect between the two sides seems prohibitive, although president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said last week that he remains “confident” an accord will eventually be reached.

As for Baez, he’s not speaking in such definitive terms. The shortstop told reporters after yesterday’s game that his representatives and the Cubs continue to talk, though his personal focus is on the field at this point (links via Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and Jordan Bastian of MLB.com).

Baez was, however, happy to discuss Francisco Lindor’s recent extension with the Mets and the manner in which it benefited next year’s class of shortstops. The 28-year-old called the Lindor contract “huge” for other shortstops in the game — next year’s class of free agents in particular. (Baez, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Marcus Semien will all hit the market next winter.) “No one was going to get more than Lindor, and you’ve got to be honest about it,” Baez said. “[But] he opens doors for other people.”

Like Rizzo, Baez is attempting to put an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season in the rearview mirror. The former NL MVP runner-up batted just .203/.238/.360 through 235 plate appearances last year, but he’s not far removed from a .286/.321/.544 showing from 2018-19. Baez connected on his first homer of the season yesterday and has swiped a pair of bases already after stealing just three bags in 2020.

However, Hoyer made clear that a fast start to the year for any of their players won’t necessarily change the calculus in the team’s offers. Said Hoyer (via Dorsey): “These guys have long track records, and how a guy’s hitting in April — positively or negatively — is not going to impact our perception of that player’s value.”

NL Notes: Reds/Cardinals Brawl, Castellanos, Padres, Baez

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Outfielder Nick Castellanos was issued a two-game suspension for his part in Saturday’s brawl between the Reds and Cardinals, the league announced.  Castellanos was the only player suspended, and he is appealing his two-game ban.  Fines were issued to three players on each team — the Reds’ Castellanos, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, and the Cardinals’ Jordan Hicks, Yadier Molina, and Nolan Arenado.

The incident developed after Cards pitcher Jake Woodford hit Castellanos with a pitch during a fourth-inning at-bat.  Castellanos wasn’t pleased by the HBP, and picked up the ball and held it in Woodford’s direction as he went to first base.  Later in the inning, Castellanos scored from third on a wild pitch, and celebrated the run by standing over Woodford (who was covering home plate) and flexing.  This led to the benches clearing, and a lot of shoving and heated words between the two NL Central rivals.

More from the division….

  • The Padres hope to have Trent Grisham back in center field when they travel to play the Rangers on April 9, manager Jayce Tingler told Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (via Twitter).  Grisham has been out of action since suffering a hamstring strain during a Spring Training game on March 11, though he did play in some simulated games at the end of camp.  Austin Nola isn’t quite as far along in his rehab from a fractured left middle finger, but he could soon get some plate appearances at the Padres’ alternate training site.
  • The Cubs drafted Javier Baez with the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft, a selection that has proven to be a winner even though Baez was one of many notable players taken in an unusually star-studded first round.  As Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune writes, the Cubs were set on Baez as their pick, though they were eyeing Jose Fernandez and C.J. Cron as Plan B options if Baez was selected by one of the eight teams picking in front of Chicago.  Tim Wilken, the Cubs’ director of amateur scouting at the time, said that the club would have taken Baez even if another star shortstop prospect in Francisco Lindor was still on the board — it ended up being a moot point, as Cleveland took Lindor with the eighth overall pick, just ahead of Baez and the Cubs at ninth.

Latest On Cubs’ Extension Talks

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With Opening Day looming on Thursday, it doesn’t appear that the Cubs will have any contract extensions finalized with Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, or Kris Bryant prior to their first game, according to both NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan and ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers.  This doesn’t necessarily mean at least one deal won’t eventually be worked out, since the Cubs “do not view Opening Day as a hard deadline,” Kaplan writes.

Of the trio, Bryant seems the least likely to sign an extension, as there hasn’t been much indication that the two sides have gotten far in negotiations.  (As of March 10, Bryant said there hadn’t been any talks.)  The outlook could be a bit more positive for both Baez and Rizzo, since Baez has already expressed that he and his representatives were willing to keep negotiating into the season.

The large majority of players prefer to restrict any contract talks to the offseason, so as to not have any lingering concerns or distractions impeding their focus once the games begin.  Rizzo has himself expressed this same preference, though Kaplan points out that Rizzo’s previous extension with the team (a seven-year, $41MM contract in 2013) wasn’t made official until May 2013.  Rizzo expressed some optimism a few weeks ago that the two sides could reach an agreement, and according to Kaplan, “club sources are confident that a deal will eventually get done.”

That seven-year, $41MM commitment has now grown into a nine-year pact, as the Cubs exercised their club options on Rizzo for both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, paying the first baseman $16.5MM each year.  That initial investment has paid off very handsomely for the team, as Rizzo hit .284/.388/.513 with 179 homers from 2014-19 and became one of the key figures of this championship-winning era of Cubs baseball.

Rizzo turns 32 in August and is coming off a down year (.222/.342/.414 in 243 PA) by his normal standards, though given the unusual nature of the 2020 season, it’s hard to say whether Rizzo is actually experiencing any sort of decline.  With this in mind, it will be interesting to see what type of contract Rizzo lands if he and the Cubs do agree to an extension — or, in lieu of an extension, what type of free agent deal Rizzo might receive on the open market if he delivers vintage numbers in 2021.

NL Notes: Padres, Preller’s Winter, Cubs, Extension Talks, Shelby Miller

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There was a point in the offseason when Padres’ GM A.J. Preller almost acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove on the same day, he said on Jon Heyman and Tony Gwynn Jr.’s Big Time Baseball podcast. Ultimately, it took a span of roughly three weeks to get all three arms dressed in brown, white, and gold. The deals took some finagling, as at one point, at least one of the players who ultimately went to Tampa Bay was slated for both the Snell and Darvish deals. Once the Snell deal went through, Preller and the Cubs had to renegotiate and swap in new names. Preller did not say which of the Rays’ new prospects was also coveted by the Cubs. But he did touch on their pursuit of one-time free agent and current Los Angeles Dodger Trevor Bauer. Preller and the Padres felt Bauer was going to take his time making a decision, and they didn’t want to be left holding the bag, so to speak, if he chose to go elsewhere. The Padres executed their trade plans instead, completing the most dramatic winters in recent memory. Despite the myriad additions, the Padres will have room for an in-season addition, should they feel the need, noted Preller. More on the Cubs…

  • After months – years, even – of trade speculation around their star core, the Cubs see varying levels of uncertainty around the respective futures of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, or Kris Bryant, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Bryant seems destined for free agency. Rizzo is confident that he’ll remain a Cub beyond 2021, and the Cubs’ affection for Rizzo has never wavered. He’s the likeliest of the trio to receive an extension. Baez wants an extension, but given the potential options in free agency next winter, the Cubs would be wise to wait unless the Wasserman client succumbs to team friendly terms. Our speculation need not end on April 1st, however. Unlike some other players seeking extensions – namely and most apropos, Francisco Lindor – Baez has no problem continuing extension talks into the season, notes Wittenmyer. It’s worth noting that Wasserman also represents Kyle Hendricks, with whom the Cubs worked out an extension late in March, 2019.
  • Newfound command of his slider has helped Shelby Miller make a compelling case to make the Cubs’ roster, per Meghan Montemurro and Lamond Pope of the Chicago Tribune. Said Miller, “Opposing hitters have to respect a whole other pitch that they haven’t seen. I’ve just got to keep throwing it, and hopefully it gets better. And I’m just going to go out there and get outs. That’s all I can say really.” Miller is a long shot to make the rotation out of camp with Hendricks, Zach Davies, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams, Alec Mills, and Adbert Alzolay ahead of Miller in the pecking order. He’s in the mix for a bullpen spot, however. A lot may depend on whether Alzolay is granted another option season. If not, he’ll be on the roster in one form or another. Miller is a non-roster invitee who would need to be added to the 40-man roster to make the team. The Cubs have one open 40-man roster spot.

Chicago Notes: Baez, Pederson, Kopech

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Here’s the latest on Chicago’s two major league teams:

  • Shortstop Javier Baez once again made it clear Friday that he wants to remain with the Cubs, not depart in free agency next offseason, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic tweets. “Obviously, I want to stay here. I don’t want to play for another team,” Baez said, though the Cubs may lose the opportunity to extend the two-time All-Star if they don’t do so by the time the season begins. Baez stated he’ll “probably” put a deadline on talks in spring training. Barring a new deal, Baez could be one of several free-agent standouts at his position next winter, though he’s in need of a rebound after hitting a dismal .203/.238/.360 with 75 strikeouts against just seven walks in 235 plate appearances last year.
  • One of Baez’s new teammates, outfielder Joc Pederson, told Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that he turned down longer offers to join the Cubs. The former Dodger inked a one-year, $7MM guarantee with the Cubs because of the allure of playing every day. Pederson was a platoon player in Los Angeles, where the left-handed swinger batted .238/.349/.501 over 2,132 trips to the plate versus righties. On the other hand, he managed an ugly .191/.266/.310 line in 385 PA against southpaws.
  • White Sox manager Tony La Russa confirmed Friday that righty Michael Kopech will open the season in the team’s bullpen, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score relays. The highly touted Kopech made his major league debut in 2018, throwing 14 1/3 innings, but he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in September of that year, and he hasn’t appeared in the bigs since. Kopech missed 2019 while recovering the procedure and then sat out last season because of COVID-19 concerns. The 24-year-old continues to rank as one of baseball’s most promising prospects, though, with MLB.com placing him 39th overall.

NL Notes: Turner, Mets, Cubs, Reds, Pirates

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The Mets are interested in free-agent third baseman Justin Turner, though the two sides aren’t seeing eye to eye on either contract length or value, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s quite unlikely the two will bridge the gap, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Turner has at least four teams after him, but as Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers – his longtime club – remain the favorites to sign him. A Mets deal would be interesting, though, as they let Turner go after he spent 2011-13 with them. The 36-year-old has since blossomed into a star with the Dodgers.

Now for a few items from around the National League Central…

  • The Cubs are planning on discussing contract extensions with some of their important veterans during spring training, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer revealed (via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). It’s “almost” certain they’ll talk new deals with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Baez, Wittenmyer reports, though it’s unclear whether the Cubs will make a spirited effort to retain third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant for the long haul. All three players are only under team for one more season. Bryant has been part of plenty rumors in recent weeks, so he seems the most likely of the trio to be part of a trade.
  • Reds general manager Nick Krall said right-hander Lucas Sims would be “delayed” heading into 2021 because of elbow tightness, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. However, Sims tweeted Monday that he’ll be ready for opening day. That’s welcome news for the Reds, as the 26-year-old Sims turned in a quality season out of their bullpen in 2020. He threw 25 2/3 innings of 2.45 ERA/3.34 SIERA ball with a well-above-average strikeout rate of 33 percent. Sims also averaged a career-best 94 mph on his fastball.
  • Although he was involved in a car crash that took three lives in his native Dominican Republic in September, Pirates infield prospect Oneil Cruz should be with the club for the start of spring training, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. “We are not aware of anything that should prevent him from being on time at this point,” a team spokesperson said.

Cubs, Javier Baez Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and shortstop Javier Baez have avoided arbitration with an $11.65MM agreement for 2021, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com tweets. Baez is a Wasserman client.

MLBTR forecast a $10MM to $11.9MM arbitration salary for Baez earlier this offseason, so this deal checks in near the top of that projection. The Cubs could still try to work out an extension with Baez, though it doesn’t seem that will happen in the immediate future. For now, the 28-year-old remains on track to become a free agent after the upcoming season.

Regardless of whether an extension comes together, both the Cubs and Baez will hope for a better year out of the two-time All-Star, who posted one of his worst seasons in 2020. Baez did appear in 59 of the Cubs’ 60 regular-season games, but he batted a disastrous .203/.238/.360 (57 wRC+), recorded his worst ISO since 2016 (.158), and amassed 75 strikeouts against a mere seven walks over 235 plate appearances. That was hardly the star-level output Baez provided the Cubs from 2018-19, when he combined for a line of .286/.321/.544 (123 wRC+) in 1,206 PA and was among the most valuable infielders in the sport.

Central Rumors: Cubs Extensions, Cardinals, Kluber

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The Cubs’ trade of Yu Darvish cleared $62MM from the books over the next three years, but Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times writes in his latest mailbag column that it’s still unlikely the team will agree to a contract extension with any of its pending free agents prior to the start of Spring Training. Each of Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant is set to hit the market next year, and while the latter of that trio has seen his name prominently circulated in the rumor mill, Baez and Rizzo have broadly been considered extension candidates. A long-term arrangement could come together once camp is underway, Dorsey notes, but only if the “right situation presented itself.”

Of course, given that no deal has come with Baez despite years of negotiations and that Rizzo already has already signed one team-friendly deal, it’s hard to see either player inking a deal that heavily favors the Cubs. The fact that both players are coming off down seasons only further muddies the matter. Both players have considerable career earnings already and may prefer to bet on a personal rebound rather than selling themselves short after a lackluster 2020 showing.

More out of baseball’s Central divisions…

  • In his latest Q&A with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals aren’t actively pursuing rotation upgrades outside of a potential reunion with Adam Wainwright. The Cards aren’t being particularly aggressive in their efforts to re-sign either Wainwright or fellow franchise icon Yadier Molina, per Goold, instead continuing to wait out a glacial free-agent market. Should Wainwright ultimately sign elsewhere, the Cards might pivot and look for a low-cost deal with a comparable veteran, but they’ve “continued to position themselves as a team that will reduce payroll,” Goold writes.
  • The Tigers are expected to be among the teams on hand for free-agent right-hander Corey Kluber’s showcase in Florida on Wednesday, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. It figures to be a well-attended event to watch Kluber, a two-time American League Cy Young winner in Cleveland who endured injury-plagued years in 2019 and ’20. A fractured forearm limited the longtime workhorse to 35 2/3 innings in his last season as a member of the Indians, and then he threw just one frame last year as a Ranger while battling shoulder issues. Still, the 34-year-old looks to carry plenty of appeal as a buy-low candidate. In Detroit’s case, the 34-year-old could help improve a rotation that received dismal production from Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer last season, perhaps while mentoring much younger hurlers such as Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning.
  • The Twins, whose interest in Kluber was previously reported, will also be at Kluber’s showcase, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Kluber has ties to Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, who was part of the Cleveland front office that acquired the former ace.
  • The Cubs are yet another Central team that will take in Kluber’s session, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic relays. They’re in clear need of rotation upgrades beyond Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, but they’re not in big-spending mode. It remains to be seen whether Kluber will end up in their price range.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

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