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Jasson Dominguez

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

AL East Notes: Shoemaker, Rays, Mets, Dominguez, O’s

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Right-hander Matt Shoemaker is drawing interest from multiple teams in free agency, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, including the Red Sox.  It’s probably safe to assume that pitching-needy Boston will be looking at several arms as it tries to rebuild the rotation, and Shoemaker is the kind of lower-cost veteran hurler that would offer some upside.

Shoemaker missed most of 2019 due to a torn ACL and then missed around a month of the 2020 season due to shoulder inflammation.  This led to only 57 1/3 total innings for Shoemaker over the last two seasons with the Blue Jays, though he had good numbers (a 3.14 ERA, 2.78 K/BB rate, and 7.8 K/9) when he was on the mound.  Shoemaker’s performance 2019 was significantly better than his 2020, however, as home run problems plagued him this past season.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Mets are looking for both a president of baseball operations and a general manager to work under Sandy Alderson, and Rays special assistant Bobby Heck has been mentioned as a potential candidate on the Mets’ radar.  However, the New York Post’s Mike Puma reports that despite those rumors about Heck being “in play for the top position, an industry source on Saturday indicated he likely won’t be the Mets’ choice.”  Whether this means Heck isn’t being considered for any sort of front office position with the Mets isn’t yet known.  (Specific wording may be a factor here, as if president of baseball ops is “the top position,” Heck could still be a GM candidate.)  Another interesting wrinkle is some potential animosity between new Mets owner Steve Cohen and Rays majority owner Stuart Sternberg, as Puma hears that Sternberg “isn’t particularly fond” of Cohen.  Of course, any possible discord doesn’t necessarily mean the two teams wouldn’t do any business, but Puma opines that it could be an obstacle if the Mets were to ask Sternberg for permission to speak with Rays GM Erik Neander.
  • Jasson Dominguez is the Yankees’ top prospect and one of the more intriguing young players in all of baseball, though the 17-year-old has yet to actually begin his professional career.  Inked to a $5.1MM bonus as the 2019-20 international signing window opened, Dominguez’s first year as a Yankee has been interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and thus he has been mostly spent his time training and working out at a baseball academy in his native Dominican Republic.  “I expected to play my first professional season and get to experience what that felt like,” Dominguez told MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.  “I wanted to live the experience, but COVID changed everything….What I’ve learned, and what I think everyone in the world is learning, is how to adapt and live with what is happening.”
  • With five open spots on their 40-man roster, the Orioles have some room to maneuver before November 20, when they must set their 40-man in advance of December’s Rule 5 Draft.  The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz looks at eight eligible prospects the O’s might be looking to protect in the draft, assuming the Orioles use all five open roster spots on their own players and not any external additions or minor leaguers they might themselves draft out of another team’s system.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Dominguez, Beer

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Some stray items from around the Show….

  • Can Theo Epstein’s front office get the Cubs back on track?  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explores the question in a detailed look at the challenges facing the team this winter, as the team’s overhaul has already led to the end of Joe Maddon’s managerial tenure but seemingly no major shuffles coming to the baseball operations department.  The Cubs’ lack of success in 2019 had arguably less to do with Maddon and more to do with the team finally paying the price after several ill-fated acquisitions clogged the roster and the farm system failed to produce much high-impact talent (especially on the pitching side).  Wittenmyer wonders if Epstein and top lieutenants Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod can guide the Cubs through this reload period now that “the industry has caught up” to some of the roster-building strategies deployed by Epstein and company in rebuilding the Cubs, or in building the Red Sox into World Series winners last decade.  To Epstein’s credit, his post-season remarks to reporters included several admissions that mistakes were made by his baseball ops group, and more significant change is on the way to the big league roster.  “If you want to say we were stubborn with this group, I think that’s fair. We had a real belief in this group.  That’s an area where I need to do a better job as a leader, letting go of the past and focusing on the future,” Epstein said.
  • “It’s never an easy thing to drop $5.1MM on one player, but he made it pretty easy,” Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland told Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) about Dominican prospect Jasson Dominguez.  The 16-year-old Dominguez’s $5.1MM payday matched the highest bonus given to any player in this year’s international draft class, and his stock has only continued to rise now that he has seen some action in the Dominican instructional league.  Badler’s piece details how the Yankees’ international scouting staff first came across Dominguez, and how the youngster is already showing potential as a five-tool center fielder (not to mention a sixth tool of plate discipline).
  • While playing in the Arizona Fall League, Diamondbacks prospect Seth Beer is focusing on answering questions about his defensive future by improving his first base glovework, Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell writes.  The Astros selected Beer with the 28th overall pick of the 2018 draft, though he is best known for being part of the prospect package Houston sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke trade deadline blockbuster.  Beer has carried the hitting prowess he displayed at Clemson into his pro career, but since sticking as an outfielder may not be feasible, Beer has seen a good deal of first base time in order to establish a position for himself.  Playing in an NL organization, he also doesn’t have the future comfort of a designated hitter spot.  On the plus side, Beer is “excited” to have a clearer path to the big leagues with the D’Backs than he did in Houston, calling the trade “a great opportunity for me in my career.”

Notable International Signings: 7/2/19

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The 2019-20 July 2nd international signing period is officially underway, though it’s not exactly laden with suspense. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.

Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Throughout, we’ll be citing to the reporting of Baseball America (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) along with analysis from Fangraphs. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals:

  • Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Everyone’s top target is reportedly holding strong on his commitment to go to the Bronx. The deal is said to be for $5.1MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, with an announcement expected this evening. Dominguez is a switch-hitter who’s said to possess five-tool ability. The Fangraphs team is sufficiently impressed to run him all the way up to the #61 overall MLB prospect ranking right out of the gates (via Kiley McDaniel, on Twitter). The Yanks also have struck a $1.2MM deal with outfielder Jhon Diaz, Sanchez tweets. He was the 18th-rated player on the MLB.com board but ran all the way up to #7 at Fangraphs.
  • Robert Puason, SS, Athletics: Another player who’ll command about $5MM, Puason is a toolsy shortstop with big upside. He was said to have a deal in place with the Braves before that team was slapped with international sanctions. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta organization wasn’t actually punished for agreeing to terms early (though that widespread practice is officially forbidden) but rather for structuring a group deal with Puason’s trainer, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains on Twitter.
  • Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: The value on this one is unknown, but BA’s Ben Badler has photographic evidence of the signing (Twitter link). Rodriguez gets top-three billing from Fangraphs. The Los Angeles club is also in agreement with righty Kristian Cardozo, who’s also considered one of the thirty best players available.
  • Bayron Lora, OF, Rangers: Baseball America has made this connection for some time; Sanchez tweets that it’s a $4.2MM deal for the slugging prospect. Shortstops Maximo Acosta and Zion Banister are also members of the Texas signing class. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) has the former at $1.6MM and the latter at $835K. As he notes, the Texas organization will need to acquire some added pool capacity to make the math work.
  • Erick Pena, OF, Royals: This is another signing called in advance by the BA crew. Sanchez has the bonus at $3.8MM (Twitter link). FG labels Pena “a well-rounded outfielder with considerable physical projection.”
  • Ronnier Quintero, C, Cubs: Occupying the #6 spot on the boards of both Fangraphs and MLB.com, Quintero will follow Willson Contreras from Venezuela to the Chicago organization. The Cubbies also have a deal with fellow top-ten-ish prospect Kevin Made, a shortstop. Sanchez puts the Quintero deal at $3MM and Made’s mark at $1.7MM. Another Venezuelan backstop, Brayan Altuve, will cost the Cubs another million bucks, seemingly setting up the organization for a search for some added pool money.
  • Roberto Campos, OF, Tigers: The Detroit organization popped for a hefty $3MM to secure the services of the Cuban outfielder, per Badler (via Twitter). Campos defected in somewhat dramatic fashion several years ago at just 13 years of age. He wasn’t listed among the best prospects, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News indicates on Twitter that the Tigers like his bat quite a bit.

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, per Sanchez and/or Badler:

  • Twins, $2.7MM, outfielder Enmanuel Rodriguez
  • Angels, $2.2MM, shortstop Arol Vera
  • Marlins, $2.8MM, shortstop Jose Salas
  • Mets, $2.05MM, outfielder Alexander Ramirez
  • Padres, $2MM,  outfielder Ismael Mena
  • Astros, $2MM, shortstop Dauris Lorenzo

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

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Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

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