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James Paxton

Mariners Sign James Paxton

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Feb. 18: The Mariners have formally announced their one-year deal with Paxton. Right-hander Andres Munoz, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was placed on the 60-day IL to open a roster spot.

Feb. 13: The Seattle Mariners have an agreement in place with James Paxton, per Chad Dey of Sportsnet650 (via Twitter). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirms the deal. Paxton will make $8.5MM on a one-year deal with bonuses upping the potential value to $10MM, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). “Big Maple” will earn an additional $750K with 10 games and $750K at 20 games, adds MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Paxton is represented by the Boras Corporation.

By signing for just one season, Paxton will have the opportunity to prove his good health and return to the open market. It’s no small thing that he’ll get to do so in an environment where he’s comfortable, having made T-Mobile Park his home from 2013 to 2018. Assuming good health, Paxton should have no trouble reaching those performance incentives to make this contract a clean $10MM.

Health hasn’t always been Paxton’s strong suit, of course. Before missing most of 2020 with a left flexor strain, Paxton spent time on the injured list with knee inflammation, left forearm contusions twice, lower back inflammation, a strained pectoral muscle, a left elbow contusion, a strained tendon in his middle finger, as well as twice hitting the shelf in 2014 with a left Latissimus dorsi muscle strain (read: back). He made just five starts for the Yankees this season after 29, 28, 24, and 20 the four years prior. Despite the litany of ailments, Paxton had largely persevered before missing most of 2020.

It’s worth mentioning, the Mariners have been clear about their intentions to run out a six-man rotation in 2021. Still, a healthy season would get Paxton well past the 20 games threshold, and the additional time between starts is more likely to help Paxton make it to 20 games than hurt. The 32-year-old will slot near the top of the Mariners’ rotation along with fellow southpaws Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justus Sheffield. Right-handers Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn are expected to round out the six-man crew.

For the Mariners, the deal has little downside. Seattle still has a payroll under $100MM and their long-term flexibility intact. Meanwhile, they get to return Paxton to the team that drafted him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. He made 102 starts over six seasons for the Mariners, earning himself a reputation as a starter with frontline potential by way of a 3.58 ERA/3.13 FIP over 582 1/3 innings to that point. The Mariners dealt him to the Yankees following the 2018 season for Dom Thompson-Williams, Erik Swanson, and Sheffield. The Mariners will now enjoy at least one season of Paxton and Sheffield in the rotation together.

On the diamond, Paxton has the potential to move the needle for the Mariners. Limited to just 20 1/3 inning in 2020, Paxton entered free agency on the heels of an uninspiring 6.64 ERA. His 90.7 mph opponents’ exit velocity was a career-high, and his average heater dipped by about three miles per hour. A 32.1 percent groundball rate continued a two-year spike in flyball rate, which led to more home runs allowed in the Bronx. Prior to joining the Yankees, however, Paxton had a 44.7 percent groundball rate.

Many of Paxton’s other metrics, however, were more bullish. He registered a 4.37 FIP/3.88 SIERA, typically-strong 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 7.8 percent walk rate that was better than the league average of 9.2 percent. At this price point, betting on a return to his career norms is a reasonable gamble for the M’s, who continue to position themselves as a potential sleeper in a year when the AL West looks more wide open than ever.

Pitching Notes: Odorizzi, Paxton, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers

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Jake Odorizzi is the top name left from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings, and it’s still not clear which (if any) team will meet the right-hander’s reported multi-year asking price. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in his latest Q&A with readers that the Cardinals’ interest in Odorizzi is legitimate but not aggressive. Goold likens the Cards’ interest to their interest in Kyle Lohse more than a decade ago, when Lohse signed a one-year deal during Spring Training 2008 at a much lower rate than he’d initially sought in free agency. Of course, other teams would surely jump into the mix were Odorizzi to eventually settle for a one-year pact, and there’s no indication yet he plans to do so.

  • James Paxton is headed back to the Mariners on a one-year deal worth $8.5MM, but he drew interest from numerous other clubs before landing that deal. The Mets offered Paxton $6MM in guarantees, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s at one point expected the lefty to be out of their price range because of how impressive he looked during an offseason showcase. However, Divish adds that Paxton also had a desire to return to a Seattle setting where he’d previously felt comfortable and had success.
  • The Red Sox were among the teams in attendance for free-agent righty Chaz Roe’s bullpen session over the weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The 34-year-old reliever spent the previous three-plus seasons in Tampa Bay and is familiar with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be a Rays executive. Roe threw only 9 1/3 innings in 2020, but he was overall a solid bullpen option as a member of the Rays, with whom he pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.73 SIERA in 119 1/3 frames.
  • The Tigers added Jose Urena to their rotation mix earlier in the offseason, but they might not be done yet. “We’re definitely looking for more pitching as we speak. I think at least one more starter would be ideal,” general manager Al Avila said Tuesday (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com).The right-handed Urena was mostly a starter as a Marlin from 2015-20, but he could wind up in a bullpen role with the Tigers, Avila noted. For now, Urena’s a candidate to join Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer in Detroit’s starting staff. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander are also among in-house possibilities to rack up starts this year.

Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez

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The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…

  • Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
  • Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.

Mets Interested In Jake Arrieta, James Paxton

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The Mets attended Jake Arrieta’s recent workout for MLB clubs, and the two sides have had discussions about a potential contract in the weeks since that outing, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). Martino notes that there’s no sense a deal is close and adds that lefty James Paxton is also of some interest to the Mets.

Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.

The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.

Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.

Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.

Cardinals Likely Done Spending

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The Cardinals have condensed an entire offseason’s worth of drama into the span of about two weeks, re-signing icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, trading Dexter Fowler and striking a blockbuster deal to acquire Nolan Arenado. It’s been a frenzied period for president of baseball ops John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the staff, but it seems the bulk of the team’s heavy lifting is complete. Mozeliak suggested at yesterday’s Molina press conference that the team is “pretty confident with the team we have going into camp” (links via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).

While the Cardinals may yet seek out some depth up the middle and in the rotation, any remaining additions are likely to be of the non-roster variety, it seems. That suggests that the Cardinals will head into the season with a young and/or unproven outfield mix consisting of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and Austin Dean. It also looks to rule out the possible addition of veteran starters Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton or Taijuan Walker — all three of whom (Odorizzi in particular) were rumored to be under consideration as of late last week.

There are still plenty of notable free-agent names that could settle for non-guaranteed deals with Spring Training just around the corner. Potential middle-infield targets for teams in need include Eric Sogard and Joe Panik, while veteran starters like Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Shoemaker and Anibal Sanchez are among the many free agents lingering on the open market. If the Cards do look to add some competition in the outfield, there are even more recognizable names available on that front. The Cardinals currently project to have a payroll in the $145MM range, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, although that could still tick upward a bit depending on the outcome of ace Jack Flaherty’s arbitration hearing.

Barring a change of heart from Mozeliak and/or a sudden ownership green-lighting of one more big free-agent strike, the Cards seem likely to lean on Flaherty, Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez as their primary starters. Depth options include Daniel Ponce de Leon, Genesis Cabrera, Jake Woodford and Johan Oviedo — plus whichever arms the front office can reel in on non-roster invitations in the coming days or weeks.

Who Will Be The Last Top-50 Free Agent To Sign?

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After a slow start, the 2020-21 free agent market finally sprung to life over the last few weeks.  The result is a lot of red ink (i.e. signing details) on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only ten of the players that original list remaining without a contract for the 2021 season or beyond.

With less than two weeks to go before Spring Training camps are scheduled to open, the question has gone from “when will anyone sign?” to “who is left to be signed?”  There are still plenty of prominent names remaining, including multiple former All-Stars, Gold Glovers, a Cy Young Award winner, and former World Series champions — including a very prominent member of the defending champion Dodgers.

Any of these players could sign at any time, of course, but it’s possible Yadier Molina could be back with the Cardinals very soon, given the reports of an agreement that could be made official now that the Caribbean Series is over.  Justin Turner may also be down to a choice between four teams, and Jackie Bradley Jr. still has interest from a reported half-dozen teams.

With Trevor Bauer now a Dodger, interest seems to be picking up for starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker.  That could, in turn, spark some offers further down the ladder for veteran hurlers like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels, as there hasn’t been much public buzz about either pitcher this winter.

On the bullpen front, Trevor Rosenthal has gotten interest from a few teams this winter, though several of his known suitors have since moved on to other late-game options.  However, the “no such thing as too much pitching” mantra would certainly seem to apply to relievers as well heading into a 2021 season that may see several starters on innings limits as they rebuild arm strength.  That would imply that the likes of Rosenthal and Mark Melancon could still be of interest to teams who already have a closer in place, in an effort to create a super-bullpen.

To add a couple more names to the mix, this poll also includes Brett Gardner and Brad Miller, who were honorable mentions on the original Top 50 list.  They were bumped up to the 50-player slate for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest after Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman made early exits from the market by accepting qualifying offers.

Of these twelve, who is your pick as the last free agent standing?  (poll link for app users)

Latest On Paxton, Odorizzi, Walker

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10:45am: The Cardinals are indeed in the market for Odorizzi, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

10:25am: The Phillies and Cardinals are among the clubs who are still active in the free-agent market for starting pitchers, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Among the starters being considering are James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker. The Phils have already made some modestly priced additions to their rotation mix, signing Matt Moore ($3MM) and Chase Anderson ($4MM) to one-year deals, but they’re likely to vie for innings at the back of the rotation and perhaps even in long relief. Any of Paxton, Odorizzi or Walker would surely be a set-in-stone member of the starting staff, health permitting.

Those two clubs aren’t alone in their exploration of this market, however. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Blue Jays are also looking at free-agent starters in this tier, noting that the club seems to prefers to keep investments in the starting staff to one year. That’d likely rule out Odorizzi, who is known to be seeking a multi-year arrangement. The Sportsnet report indicates Jays interest in both Walker and Paxton but characterizes Toronto’s current level of interest in Odorizzi as “unclear.”

As for the Cardinals, jumping into this mix would deepen a group that currently includes Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martinez and Kwang Hyun Kim. Lefty Genesis Cabrera and righties Jake Woodford and Daniel Ponce de Leon are on hand as depth options as well.

Still, Mikolas didn’t pitch last year due to a flexor strain that required surgery, and Martinez’s standing in the organization has seemingly diminished. He’s oscillated between the bullpen and rotation in recent years. Adding an established starter is plenty sensible, and the Cards look to have suddenly awakened from a dormant offseason in the past week, acquiring Nolan Arenado and re-signing Wainwright.

Any of the three pitchers in question would serve as logical upgrades for this group of teams, but there’s some cause for pause as well. The Phillies, notably, are about $11MM shy of the $210MM luxury tax threshold. There’s been no indication yet that owner John Middleton is willing to cross that mark, which has seemingly come to serve as a de facto salary cap for MLB owners this winter. Even if the Phils could secure one of the three pitchers in question for an annual commitment south of $11MM, doing so wouldn’t leave much room for in-season acquisitions.

The Blue Jays aren’t anywhere close to the luxury barrier, but Davidi and Nicholson-Smith suggest they’re also wary of adding so many veteran options that it impedes the path to innings for younger arms like Anthony Kay and Julian Merryweather. Toronto currently has Matz, Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling as possible rotation pieces slated for the Opening Day roster, and there are several arms on the 40-man roster in Triple-A.

As such, some in the industry expect the Jays to look to move the remainder of Roark’s contract, per Nicholson-Smith and Davidi. He’s owed $12MM this year, and while it’s unlikely they could convince another club to pay the full freight of that deal, it’s possible he could be movable with the Jays eating some cash or taking on a different contract in return.

With regard to the Cardinals, it’s worth wondering the extent to which ownership is willing to spend. They surely have some money earmarked for their hopeful reunion with Yadier Molina, and despite ample speculation about shuffling their outfield mix, the status quo remains in place. Then again, with the Rockies incredibly agreeing to pay all of Arenado’s $35MM salary this season, the Cards appear to have the payroll capacity to bring Molina back and still explore upgrades in the rotation and/or in the outfield. In its current state, the roster is projected for a roughly $138MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) with just shy of $150MM in luxury-tax obligations.

The asking price of all three pitchers matters, of course. Such parameters can vary as Spring Training nears, but as of late January, Odorizzi was reportedly still in search of a three-year deal that’d pay him $12-14MM annually. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson said in his podcast two weeks ago (audio link, around the 9:30 mark) that the Twins believed Paxton to be seeking a one-year deal in the $12MM range.

There hasn’t been much reported on Walker’s asking price, but he’d surely have a case for a multi-year deal given his age and solid results in 2020 — his first healthy season since Tommy John surgery in 2018. He’s something of an interesting case, however, as there are arguments for him to take either a one-year pact or a multi-year deal this winter. At 28, he could take a one-year pact to further prove his health and look to cash in on a long-term deal next winter when he’s still a relatively young free agent entering his age-29 season. At the same time, the security of any multi-year deal would be appealing for a pitcher whose 2018-19 seasons were almost entirely wiped out due to injury.

Starting Pitching Rumors: Odorizzi, Paxton, Arrieta, Walker

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi’s current market includes the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays, Twins and Red Sox, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Most of those clubs have been at least speculatively linked to Odorizzi at some point this winter, although it’s of at least some note that there’s still interest after those teams have added other pieces to their rotation already. The Angels agreed to a deal with Jose Quintana earlier this week, and the Twins inked J.A. Happ on a matching one-year deal. The Red Sox have brought back Martin Perez, while the Giants have brought in Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. Odorizzi is still seeking a three-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He and the Twins are still not seeing eye to eye in terms of the length of a potential contract or the total guarantee, Heyman adds.

A few more notes on the market for starting pitchers…

  • Lefty James Paxton is among the rotation targets the Blue Jays are taking a look at, tweets Heyman. A link between the two sides seemed almost inevitable given that the Jays have been tied to most free agents as they cast a wide net amid an aggressive offseason and given that Toronto is regularly at least speculated upon as a landing spot for Canadian-born free agents. Paxton, who threw for teams late last month, missed the bulk of the 2020 season due to February back surgery and then a forearm strain this past summer. Beyond being limited to 20 1/3 ineffective frames while battling those injuries, Paxton saw a drop of more than three miles per hour in his average heater last year. Of course, if he’s healthy, the 32-year-old would rank among the most impactful arms on the open market. From 2017-19, “Big Maple” tossed 447 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a near-identical 3.45 SIERA. He also posted an outstanding 30.1 percent strikeout rate and a 7.3 percent walk rate that sat comfortably south of the league average. At his best, he’s a playoff-caliber starter, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see hopeful contenders pursuing short-term deals with Paxton in weeks to come.
  • From one Scott Boras client to another, right-hander Jake Arrieta is planning to throw for interested teams a week from today, Heyman tweets. Arrieta missed his final few starts of the season due to a hamstring injury — his second straight year truncated by injury. The former Cy Young winner underwent arthroscopic surgery near the end of the 2019 campaign after attempting to pitch through bone spurs in his elbow for much of the season. Overall, Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM deal with the Phillies didn’t pay dividends. After a solid first year in Philly, he logged just 180 innings of 4.75 ERA/4.82 SIERA ball with an 18.1 percent strikeout rate that was nowhere near his 27 percent peak with the Cubs. The Twins plan to watch Arrieta’s bullpen session next week, tweets SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson, although he adds that Minnesota is represented at nearly all showcases of this nature, so this is perhaps more due diligence than it is keen interest in Arrieta specifically.
  • The Mariners have yet to approach right-hander Taijuan Walker with a serious offer to bring him back to the organization, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. At the time of Walker’s trade to the Blue Jays over the summer, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto suggested that he might look to bring the righty back to the team in the near future (Twitter link via Jessamyn McIntyre). That has yet to happen, it seems, although it’s also worth noting that Divish reported earlier in the week that Mariners ownership has limited the front office’s payroll flexibility “more than expected” this winter. The Mariners may yet add another arm to the rotation mix, but depending on the extent to which spending is limited, a multi-year deal candidate like Walker might be out of reach.

Mets Notes: Kluber, Paxton, Coaches

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The latest from Queens…

  • The Mets will send scouts to Corey Kluber’s showcase on January 13, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link) and the club also had evaluators watching James Paxton when Paxton threw for teams two weeks ago.  Both free agent pitchers are looking to bounce back from injury-shortened 2020 seasons, and Kluber also barely pitched (35 2/3 innings) in 2019.  If healthy and effective, either pitcher would give the Mets another major arm to join Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman atop the rotation.  Lots of other teams, of course, would have similar hopes of installing Kluber or Paxton as a rebound candidate, though it is unclear how this interest will manifest itself in terms of a contract given both pitchers’ health concerns.  The Mets have deeper pockets than most clubs this offseason, however, and New York could conceivably sign Kluber or Paxton as something of a lottery ticket for the back end of the rotation while still targeting a higher-tier arm (such as a Trevor Bauer).
  • The Mets announced their full coaching staff, including official confirmation of new hires Dave Jauss (as bench coach) and Tony Tarasco (as first base coach and an outfielders/baserunning coach).  Ricky Meinhold will also join the staff as an assistant pitching coach, while retaining his prior job as a minor league pitching coordinator.  Brian Schneider returns to the staff with a new assignment, moving from quality control coach to Major League field coordinator and catching coach.
  • In case you missed some noteworthy Mets news from yesterday, the Amazins are reportedly no longer bidding on Tomoyuki Sugano, but they are interested in former Indians closer Brad Hand.

Latest On James Paxton

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Free-agent left-hander James Paxton recently held a showcase with “as many as 20 teams” in attendance, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Paxton’s fastball reached 94 mph during the session, Morosi adds.

The 32-year-old Paxton is coming off a difficult season as a member of the Yankees, with whom he totaled just five starts and pitched to a 6.64 ERA/4.37 FIP over 20 1/3 innings. Paxton did post appealing strikeout and walk numbers (11.51 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9), though a fastball that has averaged upward of 95 mph throughout his career clocked in at a disappointing 92.1 in 2020. Paxton, who has dealt with several injuries in the majors, underwent back surgery last February and didn’t pitch beyond Aug. 20 because of a flexor strain. Fortunately, Paxton avoided surgery on his arm, and agent Scott Boras issued encouraging updates on his health in recent weeks.

If Paxton is at 100 percent, it’s easy to see why teams would have interest in him on what’s likely to be a fairly affordable short-term contract. Also a former Mariner, Paxton logged quality numbers from 2013-19 before enduring struggles last season. To this point, Paxton has put up an impressive 3.58 ERA/3.31 FIP with 9.9 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9 across 753 1/3 innings and 136 appearances (all starts).

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