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Red Sox Notes: Winckowski, Sale, Paxton

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Tthe Red Sox are amidst a stretch of ten games in nine days, thanks to a doubleheader against the Orioles on Saturday. That could necessitate the club using a spot starter, with manager Alex Cora suggesting Josh Winckowski as a possible candidate, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

The right-hander was a 15th round selection of the Blue Jays in 2016, but went to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz trade, about two weeks before the Mets sent him to Boston in the three-team Andrew Benintendi deal. Last year, his first in the Red Sox organization, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, throwing 112 total innings with a 3.94 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, earning himself a spot on the 40-man roster.

This year, the 23-year-old seems to have taken things forward a notch over his first seven starts and 31 2/3 innings for Triple-A Worcester. His ERA is at 3.13 with a 27.9% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 57% grounder rate. He last started for the WooSox Sunday, which would line up as the team’s 27th man for Saturday’s doubleheader on five days’ rest.

Further down the road, the rotation should get a boost from the return of Chris Sale, who threw a 15-pitch bullpen session today. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Sale is scheduled for another bullpen on Friday and is likely to throw another next week. Cora suggested that Sale could be in line to throw live batting practice following next week’s session if all goes well. That’d mark his first time throwing to hitters since he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib cage in March.

There’s still a long road ahead before Sale can contribute to the big league team, though it’s encouraging that he’s at least making progress. The lefty threw 42 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery and was effective, though not quite at the ace level of previous years. His 3.16 ERA was over a run higher than his 2018 mark, with his 28.4% strikeout rate coming in about 10 points below the same number from three years earlier.

Boston is also awaiting the season debut of James Paxton, who is rehabbing from last April’s Tommy John surgery. The southpaw is a bit behind Sale in his recovery after being sidelined by continued elbow soreness this month, but he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI (audio link) he’s feeling better and has again started throwing. Paxton suggested he’s looking to gradually progress from 60 to 120 feet during his work from flat ground before he could begin throwing bullpen sessions of his own.

The 33-year-old Paxton signed a convoluted free agent deal over the offseason. He’s making $6MM this year, and the Sox will have to decide whether to trigger matching $13MM options for 2023-24 at the end of the season. If the team declines their end, Paxton can exercise a $4MM player option for 2023 only or test free agency. How long Paxton’s stay in Boston lasts will certainly be determined by his progress in his ongoing recovery and his form whenever he makes his return.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Hill, Hernandez, Duran

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With the Red Sox struggling, it will still be a while before two big reinforcements are back on the mound.  Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) today that Chris Sale’s rehab from a stress fracture in his ribcage has been delayed by another medical issue, one not related to baseball or to COVID-19.  Sale has yet to resume throwing, and his return from the 60-day injured list is now expected for late June.

James Paxton is also dealing with some posterior elbow soreness, which is concerning since Paxton is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery.  That rehab was already expected to keep Paxton from returning until around June or July, though this latest soreness could very well push back Paxton’s timeline, even though the southpaw is expected to resume throwing soon.

Paxton signed a one-year “swellopt” contract with Boston prior to the lockout, which will pay the left-hander $10MM in guaranteed money in 2022, and potentially up to $32MM over the 2022-24 seasons depending on whether or not the Red Sox exercise a pair of club options.  Naturally, the deal was signed with the knowledge that Paxton would miss a good chunk of the 2022 season, but Boston’s 10-17 record to date might change the equation.  While there is still plenty of time left for the Sox to turn things around, falling too far back in the competitive AL East might lead Bloom and company to consider selling at the trade deadline.

Sale is no stranger to Tommy John recoveries, as a TJ procedure sidelined Sale for the entire 2020 season and delayed his 2021 debut until August.  Since elbow problems also shut Sale down early in the 2019 campaign, the veteran lefty has pitched only 51 2/3 innings (in the regular season and postseason) since August 14, 2019.

Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill have all pitched very well in Boston’s rotation this year, while Nick Pivetta has struggled and Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have split duties as both starters and relievers.  Whitlock has been the better of the two, and Bloom said that Whitlock will be officially moved into the starting five while Hill is sidelined with a positive COVID-19 test.

Whitlock will start Tuesday’s game against the Braves, which will mark his fourth consecutive start.  Thus far, Whitlock has been just about as dominant in the rotation as he has in the bullpen, with a 1.50 ERA over his first 12 innings as a starting pitcher.  The Sox have been gradually building Whitlock’s pitch counts over those three starts, and he could now be close to being stretched out enough to operate in a more normal starting capacity.

Both Hill and Enrique Hernandez were placed on the COVID-related IL yeterday, though Hernandez was already activated today, as his symptoms weren’t coronavirus-related.  In the corresponding move, Jarren Duran was optioned back to Triple-A after a one-game appearance in the Show.  Duran tripled and walked as part of a 1-for-4 performance in Boston’s 4-2 loss to the White Sox last night.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Mariners Rumors: Chapman, Marte, Trammell, Rotation

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The Mariners’ interest in division-rival third baseman (and noted trade candidate) Matt Chapman isn’t exactly a new revelation, but even as the Athletics prepare for what looks to be a significant sell-off/payroll reduction, they’re still aiming high in trade talks. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times cites multiple sources who believe the A’s would ask that the Mariners include top infield prospect Noelvi Marte as a headline piece in any deal involving Chapman, who is controlled another two years via arbitration.

Baseball America ranked Marte as the sport’s No. 18 prospect earlier this week, and it’s not hard to see why; Marte played the 2021 season as a 19-year-old against much older competition but nevertheless slashed a combined .273/.366/.460 with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases between two Class-A levels. Drawing praise for his blend of raw power and speed, Marte has played exclusively at shortstop thus far in his pro career, though he’s been error-prone (6o in 1402 innings) and some scouting reports question whether he might eventually move to third base. The Athletics and other clubs would surely target him in a number of trade scenarios, but it seems unlikely Marte would actually change hands.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already gone on record this offseason to indicate there’s “no scenario” where he’d move the very top names in his farm system. Marte trails uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez on most rankings, he certainly falls under the umbrella alluded to by Dipoto. The A’s could, of course, try to work out a deal centering on another headliner, but if Dipoto was being earnest in his reluctance to trade his system’s very best, an agreement could be hard to piece together.

Some more Mariners notes…

  • In a second piece, Divish looks at three Mariners whose long-term positions with the team aren’t assured: outfielder Taylor Trammell, catcher Luis Torrens and outfielder Jake Fraley. Despite Trammell’s status as a former high draft pick and top prospect, last season’s poor big league debut has dimmed his stock in the eyes of rival scouts. Divish cites one “optimistic” scout from another club who believes Trammell can still be more than a fourth outfielder — but others are more bearish based on his approach at the plate and some poor defensive reads. Similarly, while the Mariners believe Torrens can be a passable or better defender behind the plate, other teams are more skeptical of his glovework. Any of the trio would still have some value on the trade market, but probably not as headline pieces for notable upgrades. Mariners fans, in particular, will want to check out both Divish columns for some scouting quotes and opinions of several of Seattle’s young players.
  • In his latest mailbag column, The Athletic’s Corey Brock tackles a number of pertinent Mariners topics — including the team’s rotation. Brock suggests that Seattle, needing pitchers who can make an impact out of the gate, was never going to come close to matching the $10MM offer James Paxton received from the Red Sox. Still, the Mariners appear likely to target another arm to add to the rotation — ideally someone who’s more than just a fifth starter to round out the group. The free-agent market has, of course, been largely picked over by this point — with Seattle playing a key part in the pre-lockout signing rush (Robbie Ray). Carlos Rodon stands out as one potential difference-maker who remains in play, though he has not been prominently linked to the Mariners. The trade market figures to have plenty of options, with Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle) and Oakland (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) standing as the two most obvious partners for any team seeking rotation help on the trade market.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

James Paxton Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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APRIL 28: Paxton underwent Tommy John surgery in the past five to seven days, Servais announced (via Brock).

APRIL 13: Servais confirmed today that Paxton will undergo season-ending surgery (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Corey Brock). Servais did not specify the procedure, only that it would be season-ending elbow surgery.

APRIL 10: Paxton hasn’t yet decided on surgery and will seek a second opinion on his injury, Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer).

APRIL 8: Tommy John surgery has been recommended for Mariners left-hander James Paxton, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. If Paxton undergoes the procedure, he’ll miss the rest of this season and at least some portion of the 2022 campaign.

Paxton began his career with the Mariners, who used a fourth-round pick on him in 2010, though after spending 2013-18 in their uniform, they traded him to the Yankees. But Paxton, 32, returned to Seattle in free agency this past offseason on a one-year, $8.5MM deal. Unfortunately, the Big Maple exited his first (and potentially lone) start of 2021 on Tuesday because of forearm troubles. The Mariners then placed Paxton on the 10-day injured list.

While Paxton has typically pitched well in the majors, evidenced by his 3.59 ERA/3.62 SIERA over 137 appearances (all starts) and 754 2/3 innings, various injuries have haunted him since he entered the league in 2013. He has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in an individual season, and he totaled just 20 1/3 frames last year while dealing with back issues and a flexor strain. The Yankees then elected against bringing Paxton back, though he did draw substantial interest from teams on the open market before returning to the Mariners. It doesn’t appear the reunion will be fruitful for either side, however.

The Mariners entered the season with Paxton as a key part of their six-man rotation, but it looks as if they will have to make other plans for the rest of the year. At least for now, Nick Margevicius will take Paxton’s spot in the M’s starting staff, complementing Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn.

Mariners Place James Paxton, Jake Fraley On Injured List

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12:35pm: The Mariners announced that Paxton and Fraley have both been placed on the 10-day injured list. Paxton has been diagnosed with a left forearm strain, while the MRI confirmed a hamstring strain for Fraley. The Mariners recalled outfielder Braden Bishop and righty Ljay Newsome from their alternate training site to take their spots on the roster.

8:22am: James Paxton returned to the Mariners’ rotation last night after two years in the Bronx, but his start was cut short by another forearm injury, as he exited after just 1 1/3 innings. Outfielder Jake Fraley, meanwhile, left the game with what the team later announced as a hamstring strain after making a diving catch in left field. Both players will undergo an MRI this morning, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Paxton’s 2020 season with the Yankees was cut short by a forearm strain, so it’s obviously a concerning development for him to suffer this type of injury — particularly so early in the season. The lefty did tell Divish and others that the pain he’s feeling in his arm isn’t at the same level as it was when he sustained that injury last summer.

The Mariners brought Paxton back to the organization on a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal over the winter. The 32-year-old had interest from several teams, as one would expect based on his track record of success, but he seemingly preferred to return to Seattle. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto noted at the time of the signing that Paxton had been sharp in workouts for MLB teams and gave the club something of a “hometown discount.”

The reunion looked to be going well in Spring Training, where Paxton struck out half of the 34 batters he faced and allowed just one run during Cactus League play. For the time being, he struck an optimistic tone that the current issue could be muscular in nature and something from which he can quickly return.

As for Fraley, the 25-year-old is out to an unusual start to his 2021 season. He’s just 1-for-10 through five games, but he’s drawn eight walks and been hit by a pitch, leading to a bizarre .100/.500/.200 batting line through his first 19 plate appearances. Acquired from the Rays as part of the Mike Zunino trade, Fraley hasn’t hit much in two prior stints with the Mariners in 2019-20, but he only tallied 70 plate appearances during that time. He’s a career .286/.362/.480 hitter in the minors — including a .276/.333/.553 showing in 38 Triple-A games.

For the moment, however, it seems that an IL stint could be on the horizon, which will have the baseball world watching intently. The most straightforward move for the M’s would simply be to recall Braden Bishop from their alternate site, as he’s on the 40-man roster already, but Seattle also has top prospect Jarred Kelenic on the cusp of his first big league promotion as well.

Kelenic’s service time status was thrust into the national spotlight when now-former CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated in a Q&A with the Bellevue Rotary Club that the 21-year-old Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and wouldn’t be called to the Majors until mid-April (the general point at which the Mariners would gain an extra year of control over Kelenic). Kelenic missed some time in Spring Training with a minor knee injury, but he returned to the lineup and immediately went 3-for-6 with a double and a homer in two games before being reassigned to minor league camp, so the injury looks to be behind him.

It still seems likelier that the Mariners will turn to Bishop for the time being, as calling up Kelenic now would still give him enough time to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2021. That would no longer be the case as soon as next weekend, however.

Turning back to the pitching staff, the Mariners were already using a six-man rotation, so it’s likely they’ll simply shorten up to five starters for the time being and carry an extra reliever. The bullpen had to cover 7 2/3 innings last night and took a beating at the hands of the White Sox in the process, so Seattle would probably prefer to get a fresh arm into the relief mix anyhow.

It’s at least worth noting that as with the Fraley/Kelenic situation, the Mariners have a highly regarded pitching prospect who is near MLB readiness: 2018 first-rounder Logan Gilbert. While this comment didn’t draw as much attention as the Kelenic revelation, Mather indicated in that same interview that he expected Gilbert to be pitching in the Majors by mid-April (obviously, an allusion to his service time). Gilbert, however, only tossed a pair of innings in Spring Training before being reassigned to minor league camp, so he may not yet be built up to the point where he’s an option even in the event that Paxton is shelved for a notable period of time. If the Mariners want to stick with a six-man rotation and Paxton does miss some time, they could give a few starts to Ljay Newsome and/or Nick Margevicius. Before too long, however, Gilbert seems likely to emerge as an option at the big league level.

Mariners CEO Kevin Mather Resigns

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FEB. 22, 3:02pm: Mather has resigned, Divish was among those to tweet.  As part of a statement regarding Mather’s resignation, Mariners chairman John Stanton said: “There is no excuse for what was said, and I won’t try to make one. I offer my sincere apology on behalf of the club and my partners to our players and fans. We must be, and do, better. We have a lot of work to do to make amends.” Stanton added that he’ll serve as acting president/CEO until the team finds a permanent replacement for Mather.

2:17pm: The MLB Players Association has released a statement about Mather: “The Club’s video presentation is a highly disturbing yet critically important window into how Players are genuinely viewed by management. Not just because of what was said, but also because it represents an unfiltered look into Club thinking. It is offensive, and it is not surprising that fans and others around the game are offended as well. Players remain committed to confronting these issues at the bargaining table and elsewhere.”

FEB. 21, 10:20PM: Mather issued a public apology, stating “I want to apologize to every member of the Seattle Mariners organization, especially our players and to our fans. There is no excuse for my behavior, and I take full responsibility for my terrible lapse in judgement.  My comments were my own. They do not reflect the views and strategy of the Mariners baseball leadership who are responsible for decisions about the development and status of the players at all levels of the organization.

“I’ve been on the phone most of the day today apologizing to the many people I have insulted, hurt, or disappointed in speaking at a recent online event.  I am committed to make amends for the things I said that were personally hurtful and I will do whatever it takes to repair the damage I have caused to the Seattle Mariners organization.”

7:25PM: In a video speech given to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club on February 5, Mariners president/CEO Kevin Mather discussed a number of topics surrounding his team and the upcoming season at large.  The speech was posted to YouTube earlier today and later removed, though not before several outlets (including Grant Bronsdon and Kate Preusser of the Lookout Landing blog and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) took note of several eyebrow-raising statements made by the Seattle executive.

Speaking with an unusual (and rather shocking) amount of openness, Mather made multiple comments that are sure to gain the attention of Mariners fans, players, and the players’ union.  The most problematic remarks concerned how star prospect Julio Rodriguez and former pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma reportedly have or had difficulties speaking English.  Asked to tell attendees about Rodriguez, Mather began with, “Julio Rodríguez has got a personality bigger than all of you combined. He is loud, his English is not tremendous.” Rodriguez has already responded to Mather’s comments with a pair of pointed tweets.

In response to a separate question, Mather went on a tangent about Iwakuma, saying:

“For instance, we just re-hired Iwakuma, he was a pitcher with us for a number of years. Wonderful human being, his English was terrible. He wanted to get back into the game, he came to us, we quite frankly want him as our Asian scout, interpreter, what’s going on with the Japanese league. He’s coming to spring training. And I’m going to say, I’m tired of paying his interpreter. When he was a player, we’d pay Iwakuma X, but we’d also have to pay $75,000 a year to have an interpreter with him. His English suddenly got better, his English got better when we told him that!”

While Mather also praised Rodriguez, Iwakuma, and other players during the speech, his overall breakdown of Seattle’s roster carried more than a few awkward moments.  For instance, Mather continually referred to catcher Luis Torrens as “Luis Torres,” and he described longtime third baseman Kyle Seager as “probably overpaid” while also citing Seager’s clubhouse leadership.

It’s quite possible league officials may also have a few words with Mather considering how he discussed such topics as prospect service time, noting that the Mariners didn’t intend to promote any of the top prospects working out at their alternate training camp last summer.

“There was no chance you were going to see these young players at T-Mobile Park,” Mather said.  “We weren’t going to put them on the 40-man roster, we weren’t going to start the service time clock.  There were all kinds of reasons that, if we had an injury problem or COVID outbreak, you might’ve seen my big tummy out there in left field.  You would not have seen our prospects playing in T-Mobile Park.”

It isn’t any surprise that the Mariners or any other team are looking to gain as much extra team control as possible over their young players, with this tactic most often manifesting itself in a prospect’s debut being delayed just long enough so the club can gain an extra year of control over the player, or delay their chances of reaching Super Two eligibility (and another year of arbitration).  Front office executives couch these decisions under a nebulous guise of saying that a prospect needs more seasoning in one aspect or another of his game, with the prospect suddenly being ready as soon as the service time threshold has been passed.  The MLBPA was already expected to pursue ways of addressing this loophole during the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations, and Mather’s comments figure to be the union’s clearest evidence yet that teams are engaging in service-time machinations.

This coming spring, Mather implied that both star outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and pitching prospect Logan Gilbert would have their debuts delayed.  “We would like [Kelenic] to get a few more at-bats in the minor leagues,” Mather said.  “Probably Triple-A Tacoma for a month, and then he will likely be in left field at T-Mobile Park for the next six or seven years.”  As for Gilbert, “you won’t see him on April 1st, but by mid-April” he will be on Seattle’s active roster.

Kelenic was offered a contract extension of six years in length, Mather said, plus multiple years of club options.  This has been the standard model for most teams when making long-term deals with players who have yet to debut in the big leagues, and the Mariners reached such a deal themselves with Evan White back in November 2019.

Mather didn’t seem to have any hard feelings about Kelenic’s decision to reject the offer, and he also gave credit to White for taking an extension, saying the first baseman “took a lot of heat for signing that deal, the union really pushed back and said, ’don’t do it.’ ”  Mather added that the Mariners will continue to offer similar extensions “to…three or four more players…over the next two years,” saying “we’re eager to sign these players up [and] we’re willing to take that risk.  Some we’ll win on, some we’ll lose on.”

Mather also made some candid comments about Seattle’s pursuit of free agent pitching, as his speech took place before the team signed James Paxton.  The CEO mentioned that the Mariners were in talks with both Paxton and Taijuan Walker, noting that Walker “thinks he’s going to get a three-year deal.  I don’t think he’s going to get a three-year deal.”  As it turned out, Walker essentially did get a three-year contract from the Mets in the form of a two-year pact with a player option for 2023 that will pay Walker at least $20MM in guaranteed money and potentially as much as $25.5MM.

Speaking of the free agent market in general, Mather said that Major League Baseball “lost $2.9 billion last year, and we have taken the position that there are 180 free agents still out there on February 5 unsigned, and sooner or later, these players are going to turn their hat over and come with hat in hand, looking for a contract.”

In terms of the season itself, Mather said he was “embarrassed” that Spring Training was beginning as scheduled, and that the league and players couldn’t come to an agreement on delaying both spring camp and the season itself by a month.  “There is a high level of distrust between the union and the management currently, and I’m very worried about what’s coming in the future,” Mather said.  The Mariners are hoping to have a “small” number of fans in attendance to begin the season and then gradually increase to nearer to full capacity by September, but Mather said that the situation will all depend on local health officials and the state of the pandemic.

Pitching Notes: Paxton, Jays, Thor, McGee, Bass

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The Blue Jays were among the teams in on southpaw James Paxton before he agreed to a contract with the Mariners over the weekend. However, Toronto never made a pitch to Paxton (via Gregory Balloch of Sportsnet 650). “They showed a lot of interest, and I had interest too, but they never came forward with an offer,” Paxton said. Paxton was a first-round pick of the Jays in the 2009 draft, but after the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement, he joined the M’s as a fourth-rounder in 2010. The now-32-year-old, who’s known as the Big Maple because of his Canadian roots, will earn a guaranteed $8.5MM in his return to Seattle in 2021.

  • Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard remains on track in his recovery from March 2020 Tommy John surgery, per Tim Healey of Newsday. Barring any setbacks, Thor should rejoin the Mets’ rotation sometime in June or July. Without Syndergaard, they’re slated to open 2021 with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson as the top four in their starting staff. There isn’t a set fifth member of the group yet, but the team does have interest in free-agent righty Taijuan Walker.
  • Lefty Jake McGee could close games for the Giants this year, manager Gabe Kapler told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters Wednesday. The 34-year-old McGee, whom the Giants signed to a two-year, $7MM contract last week, has saved 45 games since his career started in 2010, though the former Ray, Rockie and Dodger hasn’t picked up a save since 2018. The Giants went to a closer-by-committee approach last season with five hurlers totaling at least one save, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McGee join others in finishing games for the team this year.
  • Righty Anthony Bass is the favorite to close for the Marlins, Craig Mish of SportsGrid suggests. Bass signed a two-year, $5MM guarantee with the Marlins last month after a productive season in Toronto, where he notched a 3.51 ERA/4.09 SIERA with a 62.3 percent groundball rate in 25 2/3 innings. He could now be in line to succeed Brandon Kintzler, who closed for the Marlins in 2020 but signed with the division-rival Phillies last week.
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