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Should They Have Been Non-Tendered?

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On November 2nd of last year I listed 85 non-tender candidates, most of whom were indeed cut loose.  Almost five months have passed since the December non-tender deadline, and I'd like to revisit five of those decisions.

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff, tendered a contract by the Athletics.  The A's certainly shopped around for third base alternatives after tendering a contract to Kouzmanoff, which ended up being for $4.75MM.  So far the third baseman has again been part of the problem, though he's not alone as the team ranks 11th in the AL with 3.63 runs scored per game.  There weren't many alternatives for the A's this offseason, but they probably should have saved Kouzmanoff's money for a trade deadline addition.  They'll still be able to pursue someone, though.
  • James Loney, tendered a contract by the Dodgers.  Loney is already on notice with the Dodgers given the arrival of Jerry Sands.  Loney settled for a predictable $4.875MM salary for 2011.  Sands doesn't actually project to do any better than Loney, but the two are close enough that the Dodgers probably should have traded Loney and used the money elsewhere.
  • Russell Martin, non-tendered by the Dodgers.  According to Yahoo's Steve Henson, Martin wanted a guaranteed $5.5MM rather than the Dodgers' offer of $4.2MM.  GM Ned Colletti made the difficult decision to non-tender Martin, but kept the offer on the table while suggesting a possible super-utility role.  Martin ended up taking less guaranteed money to start at catcher for the Yankees, and he's off to a great start.  The Dodgers could have forced Martin's hand by tendering a contract and arguing for a pay cut through arbitration.  That would have been a risky choice, and Martin's health was a concern at the time, so I can't fault the Dodgers for non-tendering him.
  • Bobby Jenks, non-tendered by the White Sox.  Non-tendering Jenks was the right move given his $7.5MM salary, and the pitcher understood that decision according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  However, Jenks and the Sox were not on the same page about the team's desire to retain him and confidence in his abilities, so he signed with Boston.  The White Sox lead baseball with six blown saves, but it was still best for them to part ways with Jenks.
  • Brandon McCarthy, outrighted by the Rangers in November.  If they had retained McCarthy, the Rangers probably would have had to pay him something similar to last year's $1.3MM salary rather than the $1MM he received from the A's.  McCarthy has looked good so far, though it's only been three starts.  The Rangers are second in the AL in starter ERA without McCarthy.  Still, given the strong offseason interest in him I think it would have been best to tender a contract and shop him around.

Dodgers, Loney Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers avoided arbitration with James Loney, agreeing to a one-year, $4.875MM deal, according to CAA, the first baseman's agency on Twitter. As MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows, Loney had filed for $5.25MM while the Dodgers offered $4.7MM.

Loney posted a .267/.329/.395 line last year. He doesn't have much power for a first baseman – his career-high in homers is 15 – but the former first rounder has been durable enough to stay on the field for 158 games or more from 2008-10. That consistency, plus Loney's RBI totals (he has 88 or more in each of the past three seasons) no doubt helped him negotiate with the Dodgers.

The sides settled slightly below the midpoint, but Loney will earn more than comparable players Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart and B.J. Upton did for their second year of arbitration eligibility, as CAA points out. Loney's relatively high salary makes him a non-tender candidate for the 2011-12 offseason, though the Dodgers can retain him through arbitration if they so choose.

Only six arbitration eligible players remain unsigned for 2011. Players and teams have each won one of the two arbitration hearings to take place so far this offseason.

NL Notes: Mets, Martis, Loney, D’Backs

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Hall-of-Famer and Cardinals legend Red Schoendienst celebrates his 88th birthday today.  Let's celebrate by looking at some news from the league where Schoendienst spent his entire 33-year career as a player and manager.

Cafardo On Loney, Papelbon, Pavano, Feliz

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tackles the subject of arbitration hearings in his latest column, pointing out that teams are far more willing to settle on salaries with their players than they used to be. After speaking to Astros president Tal Smith, who says hearings don't involve as much "mud-slinging" as you'd think, Cafardo wonders why more clubs aren't inclined to fight to keep their payroll down. Here are the rest of his notes:

  • James Loney won't be traded for now, but the Nationals made a "good push" for him earlier this winter, before they signed Adam LaRoche.
  • According to one of Cafardo's Red Sox sources, Jonathan Papelbon will be available throughout the season, regardless of where the Sox are in the standings.
  • Cafardo indicates that before Carl Pavano agreed to a two-year deal with the Twins, the Yankees offered the right-hander a one-year pact worth $7MM.
  • Ron Washington offers the latest on the Rangers' plan for Neftali Feliz, who could get a chance to start this year after winning Rookie of the Year honors as a closer: "We’re going to bring [Feliz] into camp and give him an opportunity to stretch himself out. And if he shows us he’s better fitted with our ball club to start, then we’ll go in that direction. If not, we know he can close ballgames and we’re very happy with that."
  • Joaquin Benoit discussed former teammates Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano with Cafardo, opining that Red Sox pitchers will love having Crawford behind them, and expressing some surprise that Soriano won't be closing in 2011. He also told Cafardo that he was "getting a lot of phone calls" this winter from fellow relievers who felt Benoit helped them by signing early to his three-year deal.

Arbitration Figures: Tuesday

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Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. Let's keep track of those figures here, with the latest updates on top. You can track all of the players that avoided arbitration today here.

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Prince Fielder Rumors: Monday

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We heard earlier today that the Brewers are likely to hold onto Prince Fielder, but that won't stop other teams from expressing interest in the former home run champ. Here are the details on Prince, with more updates to come throughout the evening:

  • The Brewers are having internal meetings to discuss Fielder, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
  • The Brewers approached the Dodgers about their potential interest in Fielder, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown (on Twitter).
  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti shot down the Fielder-Loney-Broxton rumor, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that the Brewers and Dodgers have not spoken at the meetings (Twitter link).
  • The Dodgers have zero interest in Fielder, according to Yahoo's Steve Henson (on Twitter).
  • The Dodgers are discussing a possible three-player deal that would send Fielder to Los Angeles for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The Dodgers appear willing to listen to offers for Broxton and the Brewers are one of three teams that have inquired on Loney.

Nationals, Cubs, Brewers Inquired On James Loney

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12:22pm: A Dodgers source tells Yahoo's Steve Henson Loney will not be traded because he'd be too expensive to replace on the open market (Twitter link).  Rosenthal now agrees that Loney will not be traded.

11:39am: The Nationals, Cubs, and Brewers have inquired on Dodgers first baseman James Loney, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Loney is available, says Rosenthal.  Rosenthal notes that the Brewers would only want him in the unlikely event of a Prince Fielder trade.  The Cubs and Nationals appear to be focused on Carlos Pena, says Rosenthal.

Loney was tendered a contract on December 2nd, so he'll earn $4.5-5MM in 2011 after a disappointing '10 season.  The Dodgers' asking price doesn't appear to be reasonable, as MLB.com's Bill Ladson tweets that they wanted Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann from Washington.

Dodgers Rumors: Martin, Loney, Dunn, Nishioka

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The latest on the Dodgers, from Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times…

  • GM Ned Colletti admitted the team will spend the most time debating what to do about catcher Russell Martin, who we've pegged as a non-tender candidate.  The Dodgers could try to bring him back for less than this year's $5.05MM, writes Baxter.  Martin was sidelined by a hip injury this year, though he expects to be ready for Spring Training.  His agent recently told Baxter's colleague Dylan Hernandez that his client hopes to remain with the Dodgers.
  • Another player I was willing to call a non-tender or at least trade candidate, James Loney, "is all but certain to return at first base" according to Baxter.  He could earn around $5MM despite a disappointing 2010 season.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported recently that Loney is the position player the Dodgers are most willing to trade as they look to add power to the lineup. 
  • The Dodgers have uncertainty at left field and second base, but Baxter says they're not expected to bid on Adam Dunn or Tsuyoshi Nishioka.  Instead, they could continue to add pitching.

Odds & Ends: Shell, Kuroda, V-Mart, Okajima, Davies

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Links for Monday evening…

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com tweets that the Royals have signed reliever Steven Shell to a minor league deal. Shell, 27, had a 3.59 ERA in 72.2 innings with the Mariners' Triple-A affiliate last season.
  • Troy Renck of The Denver Post lists the Cardinals, Phillies, and Rockies as some of the teams that were interested in Hiroki Kuroda before he re-signed with the Dodgers (Twitter link).  Kuroda, however, re-signed without fielding offers from other teams according to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.
  • Add the Rangers to the list of teams showing interest in Victor Martinez says SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
  • WEEI.com's Rob Bradford tweets that Hideki Okajima is subject to a normal arbitration calendar this offseason. In the past the Red Sox had to offer him a contract by November 20th.
  • Non-tender candidate Kyle Davies hopes to remain with the Royals, says MLB.com's Dick Kaegel. Davies hasn't heard anything from the team regarding his future.
  • Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reports that Cliff Lee's agent Darek Braunecker is still unsure if he will attend this week's GM Meetings.
  • MLB.com's Jane Lee provides a list of power bat the Athletics could potentially pursue as free agents this offseason.
  • The Yankees don't believe that Derek Jeter will ultimately leave New York, but they're prepared for a long negotiation according to Heyman (Twitter link).
  • Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com tweets that there is still no word whether or not Andy Pettitte will return to pitch in 2011.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak doesn't expect any roster moves at this week's meetings according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com says the team is growing more optimistic about re-signing Jake Westbrook, however (Twitter link).
  • Indians GM Chris Antonetti told Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer that it's too early in the offseason to tell whether his team's needs will be filled through trades or free agency.
  • MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith is on location at this week's GM Meetings in Orlando, and you can follow him on Twitter at @mlbtrorlando for the latest breaking news and analysis.
  • There is mutual interest between the Marlins and free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski, reports Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post. Capozzi says the team might not be able to afford him, though they could free up payroll space by dealing Dan Uggla. 
  • FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal says that the Dodgers are looking to add power to their lineup, and James Loney is the player they're most most willing to trade. They would then turn around and sign one of the many power-hitting first baseman available on the free agent market.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson said that the first round of manager interviews includes one or two more candidates while the second round will consist of three or four candidates according to Andy Martino of The New York Daily News (all Twitter links). The second set of interviews could begin in Orlando this week, and Alderson said his father's death on Sunday will not slow things down.
  • ESPN's Jerry Crasnick profiles Giants GM Brian Sabean and the work that lies ahead following his team's World Series victory.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues looks at how signing Lee would impact the Yankees' future payroll. Meanwhile, Brian Cashman told MLB.com's Bryan Hoch that he doesn't expect to get any deals done this week.
  • Best of luck to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. He's trading in the Blue Jays' beat for the Indians' beat.

Non-Tender Candidate: James Loney

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Dodgers first baseman James Loney does not intuitively strike me as a non-tender candidate – the team was reportedly unwilling to part with him in July in a Cliff Lee trade.  However, Loney had a terrible final two months and finished with the worst numbers of his career.  Let's examine his case.

Loney, 27 in May, agreed on a $3.1MM deal with the Dodgers for 2010.  He was arbitration eligible for the first time after posting another 13 home run, 90 RBI season.  This year Loney still managed ten home runs and 88 RBIs, but his batting average and walk rate slipped from '09.  He finished at .267/.329/.395, disappointing rates for a first baseman.

Loney's basic career numbers: a .288 average, 55 home runs, 353 RBIs, 267 runs, and 25 steals in 2436 plate appearances across 624 games.  Potential comparables Corey Hart, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham averaged a raise of about $1.8MM, which would put Loney at $4.9MM for 2011.  These comparables aren't perfect; Loney bests them all in average and RBIs but falls short in home runs.  Hart, coming off a lousy platform year himself after the '09 season, had to beat the Brewers to get his $1.55MM raise.  The Brewers were rewarded for tendering Hart a contract, as he had a big 2010 season. 

Chances are some team would be willing to give Loney a shot at $4.5-5MM next year even if the Dodgers prefer a change at first base.  Loney's team will have the ability to retain him for 2012 if they're happy with his '11 results.  MLB.com's Bill Ladson speculated on Friday that the Nationals would go after Loney hard if the Dodgers make him available. 

We'll still pose the question in a poll: will the Dodgers non-tender Loney?  Click here to vote and here to see the results.

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