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Jake Odorizzi

Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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TODAY: Odorizzi told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (Twitter links) and other reporters that he suffered some aggravated tendons and ligaments around his ankle and foot, but in a “best case scenario,” an MRI revealed that Odorizzi’s Achilles tendon is fine.  Odorizzi said he heard a “large pop” from his leg when leaving the mound, but “one of the tendons that we pissed off runs parallel to the Achilles, that’s what they think the big pop was from.”  It isn’t yet known when Odorizzi might be able to return, but the righty said he’ll be able to pitch again in 2022.

MAY 17: Houston placed Odorizzi on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, recalling Seth Martinez in his place. The club is still just terming the issue lower leg discomfort, but they’ll no more after an MRI today.

MAY 16: Astros starter Jake Odorizzi was carted off the field during tonight’s game against the Red Sox. The right-hander broke to cover first base after Enrique Hernández hit a ground-ball to the right side of the infield. He stumbled off the mound and fell to the ground in pain; he was eventually carted off the field.

Odorizzi was on crutches and in a walking boot following the game, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (link via MLB.com’s Molly Burkhardt). Odorizzi will undergo an MRI today to determine the extent of the damage, but Baker offered some optimism, saying after the game that Odorizzi was “probably doing better than it looked like on the mound.”

The team has yet to provide a substantive update, noting only that he departed the game due to left lower leg discomfort. Club officials figure to provide more detail after the game. Given the nature of the injury, it’d register as a real surprise if the veteran didn’t require an injured list stint. Whether he’s facing a particularly notable absence will be known after he undergoes further testing.

Odorizzi has made seven starts this season, tossing 31 2/3 innings. He has a solid 3.13 ERA, but that’s come with worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks. Odorizzi has benefitted from opponents’ meager .258 batting average on balls in play while allowing just one home run against 128 batters faced.

The Astros have been deploying a six-man rotation, with Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Framber Valdez joining Odorizzi in the starting staff. That group has been among the most effective in the game, and pitching coach Josh Miller told reporters before today’s contest they planned to stick with the six-man staff (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). An absence from Odorizzi would obviously affect the makeup of that group, leaving the Astros to decide whether to go back to a five-man rotation or to call upon a reinforcement like Brandon Bielak or Peter Solomon from Triple-A Sugar Land.

If Odorizzi is facing a long-term absence, it could prove quite costly for him personally. He signed an incentive-laden deal with the club late in the 2020-21 offseason. Odorizzi is playing this season on a $5MM base salary; he’d trigger a $500K incentive for reaching 100 innings pitched, with additional $1MM+ bonuses for every 10 innings thereafter up through 160 frames. His deal also contains a $6.5MM player option for next season that comes with a $3.25MM buyout; both the option price and the buyout figure would escalate if Odorizzi makes at least 20 starts this year.

Astros Moving Cristian Javier Into Rotation

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The Astros are moving right-hander Cristian Javier from the bullpen back into what will now be a six-man rotation, manager Dusty Baker told reporters yesterday (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Houston is facing a daunting stretch of 33 games in the next 34 days, and Baker revealed that the team has been expecting to move to a six-man rotation since Spring Training, recognizing this marathon stretch on the schedule.

Javier joins Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi in what Baker termed a “temporary” six-man rotation. Of course, the fact that the team isn’t planning to trot out a six-man unit for the duration of the season doesn’t mean that Javier is ticketed for bullpen work once this imposing stretch of games draws to a close. Injuries can always alter the picture, and right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will be eligible to return not long after this 34-day gauntlet. The Astros will also surely need to see better results from Odorizzi (nine runs, five strikeouts, seven walks in nine innings) and Urquidy (5.52 ERA, 11.3% strikeout rate in 14 2/3 innings) for either to hold their starting job in the long term.

Odorizzi, in particular, has drawn the ire of fans early in the season. The righty has gotten out to a slow start for a second straight year, but it’s worth pointing out that in his final 96 2/3 innings after returning from the injured list last season, he pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate — solid marks that generally fall in line with his career numbers. Odorizzi is playing the 2022 season on a $5MM base salary and is also owed at least a $3.25MM buyout on next year’s $6.5MM player option. He can earn up to $6.75MM via incentives this year, with a $500K bonus for reaching 100 innings and then a $1MM incentive for every 10 innings thereafter, up through 150. He’d receive a $1.25MM bonus for hitting 160 innings.

Turning back to Javier, there’s an easy argument that, based on the talented 25-year-old’s prior success as a starter, a permanent move to the rotation is the right call. While his velocity and strikeout rate are higher when working out of the ’pen, as one would expect, Javier nevertheless carries a 3.42 ERA and a hearty 26.7% strikeout rate in 19 career appearances as a starter. His 9.8% walk rate when starting games is a good bit lower than the 12.1% mark he’s posted out of the ’pen, and while it’s still a small sample, Javier hasn’t shown the drastic splits that many pitchers have when facing a lineup for a third time. Opponents have batted .151/.270/.377 against Javier when facing him for the third time in a day.

Looking beyond the current season and what Javier’s move to the rotation could mean for the 2022 Astros, there’d be notable ramifications as soon as 2023. Javier is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and he’d be poised for a much larger jump in salary with a successful season’s worth of starts than he would with a season worth of multi-inning relief work. Javier was placed into a long relief role in order to keep him stretched as a starter, Baker noted, but that’s meant only three appearances thus far. Dominant as they’ve been — Javier has yet to allow a run and has fanned 12 of his 31 opponents (38.7%) — Javier hasn’t been put in position to earn a save or a hold, either of which could help his case in arbitration. Working as a starter seems likely to be the best use of his talents for the Astros, but it’s also best for him and his long-term earning capacity in arbitration.

Javier’s first start of the season will be a road outing against the Rangers on Wednesday this week. He’s thrown 28, 53 and 55 pitches in his first three appearances this season, so it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with tossing 100 pitches and pitching deep into the game. Five to six innings is probably the longest he’ll be allowed to pitch, depending on his efficiency, but the fact that he eclipsed 50 pitches both on April 13 and April 20 indicates that he won’t need to go through a particularly lengthy build-up process.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Astros Notes: Correa, Verlander, Meyers

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At the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California, Astros’ general manager James Click spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle about the team’s shortstop vacancy, although he claims not to see it that way.

Most of Houston’s playing time at shortstop over the past seven seasons has gone to Carlos Correa, who is now a free agent. The club reportedly made Correa an offer before he hit the open market, although it apparently fell well short of the industry expectations surrounding his earning power. The five-year, $160MM offer was exactly half of MLBTR’s recent prediction of 10 years and $320MM, making it not terribly surprising that Correa didn’t trip over himself to get out his pen.

In the article, Rome opines that the offer is merely a way for the front office to claim that they made an effort, and then pivot to free agents that can be had on short-term deals, or no free agents at all, with the aim of keeping the position available to be claimed by prospect Jeremy Pena. Due to wrist surgery, Pena only played 30 games at Triple-A this year, but they went very well. The 24-year-old hit .287/.346/.598, for a wRC+ of 126. He comes in at #42 on the FanGraphs list of top prospects across the league, although he doesn’t crack the top 100 at Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.

Until his arrival at the big leagues, the club could consider the in-house option of Aledmys Diaz, as Click describes him as “more than qualified” to take the job. Diaz has a lot of time at shortstop on his resume, but not recently, just 14 games in the last three seasons. That lack of recent work at short and his roughly league-average offense over the past two seasons would certainly be a downgrade from Correa, who is elite on both sides of the ball.

One option not being taken seriously, however, is moving Alex Bregman from this base to shortstop. When asked about that option, Click said, “I would highly doubt it” and later added, “I don’t want to get too cute by half and try to jam a square peg into a round hole.” Bregman was primarily a shortstop before reaching the big leagues, sliding to third because of the presence of Correa. He saw some significant time there in 2019 when Correa was hurt, getting into 65 games, but hasn’t played there since. The move doesn’t seem to be totally off the table, though, as Click added that he “would have to talk to Alex about it.”

In a separate post, Rome speaks to Click about the pitching situation, with Click saying that the bullpen is a bigger need than the rotation. “I know that people have started probably mentally thinking of Cristian Javier as a reliever, but we don’t think that way,” Click says, “and having him as a starting pitching option is very real for us and creates a lot more depth.” Including Javier as a starter certainly does make the rotation look healthy, with Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi all on hand as viable options. The club also has an outstanding $18.4 qualifying offer in front of Justin Verlander at the moment, although based on the success of his recent showcase, the odds seem to be in favour of him declining and exploring the market. Click himself spoke positively about Verlander’s performance at the showcase, as relayed by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Odorizzi’s level of participation seems to be a question mark, however, as Rome details how the hurler wasn’t happy with his usage at times, displeased with the club’s hesitance at letting him face a batting order for a third time. He’s entering his final guaranteed year as an Astro but has a player option for 2023.

Elsewhere in Astros land, the club got some bad news regarding Jake Meyers, per Rome. Meyers left game four of the ALDS with a shoulder injury and never returned. He recently had surgery to repair a labral tear and isn’t expected to be playing by Opening Day 2022. That will hurt the club’s center field depth, as they had traded away Myles Straw at the deadline, in part because Meyers was ready to step up and take his place. The plan went very well before the injury, as Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 for a wRC+ of 111 in 49 games, along with a good showing in four postseason games. As long as Meyers is on the shelf, Houston’s top options in center will likely be Chas McCormick and Jose Siri, although moving Kyle Tucker from right to center is also on the table. “We have to decide, ‘Do we want to consider moving Kyle to center and then going shopping for a corner guy?’” Click said, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. “‘Do we want to have Kyle in center and have Chas and Siri and Yordan and Brantley be kind of rotating through all those spots?’” The market for free agent center fielders isn’t strong, with Starling Marte representing the only true everyday option. The market for corner outfielders, however, has many more exciting options. If the club feels comfortable with Tucker up the middle, it could make sense to take that route. At the big league level, he’s only played five regular season games in center in his career, although he saw some time there this postseason after Meyers got hurt.

Looking Ahead To The ALCS Rotations

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The Red Sox will go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the ALCS against the Astros, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who might be available for game three.

The uncertainty stems not from an uneven rotation, but from an uncertain group of relievers. Manager Alex Cora’s other available starters – Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta – will be available out in the bullpen for the start of the series, writes MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. That’s a strategy that worked for Cora in the ALDS. Pivetta proved crucial out of the pen against the Rays, a performance redolent of Eovaldi’s own in the 2018 World Series. Houck tossed seven innings of relief in the series as well, yielding just a pair of runs.

Whereas the Red Sox were able to patchwork their bullpen for a four-game series win against the Rays, they will likely need an even more dynamic approach to survive a seven-game tilt against the Astros’ potent offense. There is definite potential for this series to turn into a slugfest, not only because these two clubs boast the first and fifth ranked offenses in the game by runs scored in the regular season, but because the Astros are likely to be without Lance McCullers Jr. Results of the MRI on his sore forearm have yet to be revealed.

McCullers may not be viewed nationally as an ace, he’s been nothing short of stellar in the postseason. He owns a 2.83 ERA in 57 1/3 career postseason innings.

And while McCullers can boast the distinction of having started a game seven of the World Series back in 2017 (a win), he could be replaced by another righty who’s held that honor. Zack Greinke started game seven of the World Series in 2019 for Houston (a loss), and though he’s not likely to put up a full starter’s load, he could be used as an opener in McCullers’ stead, writes The Athletic’s Jack Kaplan. Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Jake Odorizzi are also candidates to pick up bulk innings if McCullers is unavailable.

What we do know is that Framber Valdez will take on Sale in game one, while Luis Garcia will go head-to-head with Eovaldi in game two, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Red Sox have the experience edge, but Valdez is no stranger to postseason success. Garcia, meanwhile, has at least gotten his feet wet in the playoffs: he had a scoreless two-inning outing in 2020 and 2 2/3 innings as the starter in game three versus the White Sox.

Astros Activate Jake Odorizzi, Option Seth Martinez

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The Astros activated Jake Odorizzi to start today’s game against the A’s. To clear a roster spot, Seth Martinez has been optioned to Triple-A, per Jake Kaplan of the Athletic (via Twitter).

Odorizzi’s postseason role is not yet clear, but he can nonetheless provide value here in the waning days of the regular season. He should have two more starts to audition for playoff usage. The 31-year-old has tossed 96 innings with a 4.22 ERA/4.60 FIP, 21.3 percent strikeout rate, 7.7 percent walk rate, and 35.8 percent groundball rate.

Though the Astros have lost three in a row, they should clinch the AL West sometime in the next couple of days. They could clinch as early as today with a win over the A’s and a Mariners loss. Houston can begin to think ahead to setting up their playoff rotation for an ALDS showdown with the White Sox.

Martinez, 27, had just a cup of coffee, making three appearances this past week. After a pair of scoreless outings, Martinez was tagged for five earned runs his last time out against Oakland on Friday.

Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi

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After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list.  It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup.  Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers.  Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch.  X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers.  That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury.  After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
  • After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit.  However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days.  Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls.  MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
  • The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.”  The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning.  Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.

Roster Notes: Bettinger, Burdi, Lakins, Tom, Paredes

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With three doubleheaders around baseball today, we have a number of 27th men getting an opportunity today. Alec Bettinger gets the temporary call-up for the Brewers’ twin bill against the Nationals today, per the team. Bettinger has made three appearances for the Brewers this season, including one start. Elsewhere…

  • The White Sox recalled Zack Burdi to be their 27th man for a double dip against Baltimore today, per the team. Yesterday’s game in Chicago was cancelled due to inclement weather. The 26-year-old tossed three innings against the Red Sox on April 19th, allowing one earned run in his only big-league appearances of the season.
  • On Baltimore’s end, Travis Lakins has been recalled to be the extra man for the day, the team announced. Lakins has been up and down with the big league club this year, and he’ll serve as a right-handed option out of the pen for manager Brandon Hyde. He owns a 7.36 ERA in 14 2/3 innings over 16 appearances.
  • The Pirates reinstated Ka’ai Tom from the injured list today, per the team. He will serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader. Tom began the season as a Rule 5 draft pick on the A’s, and as a waiver claim, he maintains that designation with the Pirates. Thus, the Pirates will need to add him to the active roster tomorrow in order to keep him in the organization.
  • In non-doubleheader roster news, the Astros optioned Enoli Paredes to Triple-a today to make room for Jake Odorizzi, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Paredes struggled mightily with his command, issuing 11 walks in just 4 1/3 innings.

Astros Shuffle Rotation With Valdez, Odorizzi Set To Return

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Astros skipper Dusty Baker announced several changes to his team’s pitching staff during his Wednesday media session, revealing that lefty Framber Valdez will return from the injured list to make his season debut Friday and Jake Odorizzi will be activated to start Saturday’s game (all Twitter links via Jake Kaplan of The Athletic). That’s the good news, but Baker also announced that righty Lance McCullers Jr. is headed to the 10-day IL due to shoulder soreness. The team does not believe the issue to be serious at this point.

The Astros have also selected the contract of right-hander Ralph Garza from Triple-A Sugar Land. Injured righty Josh James was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a roster spot. Lastly, Baker said right-hander Cristian Javier will be moved to the bullpen to accommodate the returns of Valdez and Odorizzi.

It’s a broad-ranging series of roster moves and role changes that carry significant implications for the Astros’ outlook moving forward. The 27-year-old Valdez broke out as one of the team’s best starters in 2020 and was expected to occupy a key role near the top of the rotation in ’21, but a broken ring finger sustained on a comebacker in Spring Training placed his very season in jeopardy. Valdez opted not to undergo surgery that could have cost him the bulk of the year, and he’ll now return to the mound after missing approximately two months of action.

Valdez stepped up in the wake of Justin Verlander’s injury last year, logging 70 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA and even better FIP (2.85) and SIERA (3.23) marks. He fanned a hearty 26.4 percent of his opponents against just a 5.6 percent walk rate — all while inducing grounders at a 60 percent clip that ranked among the game’s best. That combination of missed bats, precise control and grounders is a time-honored recipe for success, and he’ll now look to build on last year’s performance to cement himself as one of the club’s best rotation arms.

Odorizzi, 31, inked a three-year deal with the Astros over the winter (the third of which is a player option that’s unlikely to be exercised but was included as a means of manipulating the luxury tax). He made a pair of starts for the ’Stros earlier this season after a short ramp-up before being placed on the IL with a pronator muscle strain. Those first two outings didn’t go well, but Odorizzi will look to put that pair of outings and an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Twins behind him.

It appears the return of Odorizzi and Valdez will be utilized by the Astros as a means of managing the 24-year-old Javier’s workload. He’s been quite good thus far in 2021, pitching to a 3.14 ERA with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a 10.8 percent walk rate. However, the 48 2/3 innings he’s thrown are already just six shy of his entire 2020 total, and there are still more than four months of regular-season play remaining (plus, the Astros hope, additional October ball to be played). A move to the ’pen will allow the ’Stros to more carefully monitor his overall innings count this year.

The role change doesn’t necessarily rule out a return to the rotation later in the season, and based on Javier’s first 103 big league innings, it’d be a shock if the organization didn’t view him as a starter moving forward. He’s pitched to a combined 3.32 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 9.6 percent walk rate through 21 appearances (19 of them starts). With Verlander and Zack Greinke both slated to reach free agency this winter, there could be a fairly straightforward path to rotation work for Javier in 2022 and beyond.

Turning to the other IL moves announced today, the move of James to the 60-day IL is a procedural one that doesn’t really impact his timeline back to the Majors. He’s been out all year while recovering from hip surgery and was said during Spring Training to be targeting a June return. Today’s placement on the 60-day IL merely means that he can’t be activated until May 31, which wasn’t going to happen anyhow.

The departure of McCullers will be felt in the short-term, as he’s logged an excellent 2.96 ERA through his first 51 2/3 frames this year. The right-hander elected to forgo free agency in favor of a five-year, $85MM extension offer from the Astros during Spring Training, and at least to this point, the 27-year-old looks like a pitcher capable of living up to that deal.

Garza, 27, isn’t considered to be among the team’s top-ranked prospects but has tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in Sugar Land, yielding just a hit and three walks with 11 punchouts along the way. He’s spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A, pitching to a combined 3.80 ERA with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate. He’ll join the club’s bullpen for now.

Pitching Notes: Blue Jays, Allgeyer, Nats, Strasburg, Astros, Valdez, Odorizzi

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The Blue Jays have optioned Nick Allgeyer to Triple-A, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Allgeyer did not make an appearance and has yet to make his Major League debut. The Jays won’t make a corresponding move until tomorrow. There’s no need to fill his roster spot today given their day off. Since service time is measured in days and not games, there’s no reason to make a move any earlier than necessary. In other pitcher news…

  • The Nationals may be close to activating Stephen Strasburg, depending on how his shoulder feels today, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Nationals’ starters rank an uncharacteristic 25th in the Majors by fWAR, 16th with a 4.29 ERA and next-to-last with a 4.83 FIP. Strasburg has contributed just two starts totaling 10 innings on the year.
  • Framber Valdez and Jake Odorizzi will start on back-to-back days for the Sugar Land Skeeters this week, per Sports Director at Fox 26 Mark Berman (via Twitter). That’s especially good news considering that Jose Urquidy just landed on the injured list. Because of their schedule, however, Houston could largely get by with only four starters until June, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. If everyone can get healthy, the Astros will have a surplus of starters, which could lead to Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia being bumped to the bullpen or back to Triple-A, despite their solid efforts thus far.
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