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Jake Odorizzi

Dodgers Talking With Rays, Indians On Starters

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TODAY: The Dodgers are also talking with the Indians about Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Those two names have long been in play, of course, but it’s notable that Los Angeles is back in discussions after seeing several other moves fall through in recent weeks.

Cleveland is not in any rush to deal its starters, as the front office has continued to emphasize in public statements and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney explained earlier today. But the club still seems entirely willing to talk about its power arms, and certainly seems amenable to trading them in the right scenario.

YESTERDAY, 6:15pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that there’s a good deal of buzz in the industry that the Dodgers could look to a trade with the Rays in their quest for rotation upgrades. Odorizzi’s name is generating more speculation than most, he notes, although Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to several sources and got the sense that there’s nothing imminent between the two teams at this time (Twitter link).

1:02pm: The Dodgers are in talks with the Rays regarding Jake Odorizzi, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter).  The Dodgers’ three-year, $45MM agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma could be up in the air and it’s possible that the Dodgers are weighing their alternatives.

Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.

Earlier this month, it was reported that the Rays were in extension talks with the right-hander.  Odorizzi’s agent referred to the proposal as a “very nice initial offer,” which suggested that while there was a good starting point, nothing was imminent on that front either.  Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like a significant haul to part with him.  Of course, after Wednesday’s three-way deal, the Dodgers are sitting pretty in terms of prospects, so they can afford to make a strong offer to the Rays.

Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte

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Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.

“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat.  Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass.  The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
  • Many have been critical of the Orioles’ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin.  Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies’ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
  • The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves.  Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.  Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
  • The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three.  Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.  Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.

Rays Have Made Extension Offer To Jake Odorizzi

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The Rays have offered right-hander Jake Odorizzi a contract extension, agent Jason Wood confirms to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4). Topkin notes that the timing of the offer is interesting, because Odorizzi could also be part of trade talks with the Cubs as the Rays search for a hitter. (Presumably, if a contract is agreed to between the two sides, Odorizzi would want assurance that he won’t immediately be traded.)

Wood called Tampa Bay’s offer a “very nice initial offer,” says Topkin, adding that the agent said there are “lots of reasons” to continue the dialogue. Wood says there’s mutual interest and is working on a counter-offer for the Rays, whose initial offer is believed to include multiple option years, per Topkin. That’s been standard operating procedure for the Rays over the years, who locked up Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and Chris Archer to contracts that each include at least two option seasons early in each player’s career (albeit, earlier in their respective careers than Odorizzi is at present).

Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.

Originally acquired from the Royals in the James Shields/Wil Myers trade (though I submit that the trade should be referred to as the Wade Davis/Jake Odorizzi swap, personally), Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like to secure a pair of free agent years (if not more) in exchange for committing to him at this juncture.

Assuming he maintains his current trajectory, Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons could command as much as $20-25MM. And, as the free-agent market is beginning to show, the going rate for second- and even third starters is escalating closer to $20MM than ever before. Clearly, the Rays wouldn’t be interested in guaranteeing full market value this far in advance (no team would), so Wood and Odorizzi would have to make some form of concessions — probably in the overall cost the arbitration years and in the annual value of the free-agent seasons.

Were Odorizzi to agree to a long-term contract, his new deal would somewhat reset the market for pitchers in his service class. The only extension for a starting pitcher with between two and three years of service time in recent seasons was Corey Kluber’s five-year, $38.5MM deal last winter, but Kluber was noticeably older than Odorizzi and also coming off a Cy Young campaign, making his situation rather unique. Previous deals for pitchers in this service class (e.g. Yovani Gallardo, Derek Holland) were in the five-year, $30MM range, but those contracts are five years old now. Gio Gonazalez’s five-year, $42MM deal from 2012 somewhat surprisingly stands as the record for starters with between two and three years of service. It seems unlikely that the Rays would be keen on shelling out any sort of record deal for this service class, especially considering that one of the years in question is a pre-arbitration year (Gonzalez had Super Two status working in his favor).

A four-year pact with an option would lock in Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons and give the Rays an extra year of club control in exchange for delaying free agency by one season. That deal would still allow Odorizzi to hit the open market entering his age-31 season, though Tampa Bay typically seems to strive for multiple option years in these days.

Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

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Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
  • Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
  • The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
  • We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
  • With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
  • Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.

Injury Notes: Holliday, Odorizzi, Morrow

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The Cardinals tonight placed left fielder Matt Holliday on the disabled list with a quadriceps injury, the team announced. It’s not known what type of timeframe Holliday will need to recover, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Holliday has a Grade 2 tear of his right quad and will be reevaluated two weeks from now (Twitter links). Losing Holliday would be the second blow to the middle of the Cardinals’ order, as St. Louis has already lost Matt Adams for the remainder of the season to a similar injury, though Adams had a complete tear of his quad that required surgery. Unlike that scenario, however, the Cards do have a plethora of internal replacement candidates for Holliday. Randal Grichuk, Jon Jay, Jason Heyward and Peter Bourjos are all on the big league roster, and well-regarded prospect Stephen Picsotty is waiting in the wings as well.

A couple more injury-related notes…

  • Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi landed on the 15-day disabled list tonight as well, thanks to a left oblique injury. Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Odorizzi feels the injury is less serious than the oblique issue that sidelined teammate Alex Cobb for five-and-a-half weeks last year. However, Odorizzi also isn’t sure how long he’ll be sidelined and doesn’t have a timetable for his return at present. Odorizzi called the strain “mild to moderate” and said he’ll play catch later this week.
  • Padres right-hander Brandon Morrow’s return to the mound has been slowed, as a setback in his recovery means he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for the next two weeks, via the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Odrisamer Despaigne has stepped into the rotation in Morrow’s absence, but he’s been incredibly hit-or-miss in his past six outings. Despaigne yielded eight runs in his return to the rotation in early May, and he’s surrendered seven, two, zero, one and four runs, respectively, in five subsequent start. The outcome for Despaigne has been a 5.82 ERA over six starts. San Diego also has Josh Johnson rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it seems unlikely that the team would bank on Johnson taking the ball every fifth day through season’s end upon his return; Johnson has long struggled with injuries and has not thrown a pitch in the Majors since Aug. 6, 2013.

AL East Notes: Odorizzi, Navarro, Bradley, O’s

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Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi will visit a doctor on Monday to determine the severity of the oblique injury that forced an early departure from Friday’s start.  Though the extent of the injury is yet to be determined, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin) that it’s “fair to say” that Odorizzi will miss some time.  Needless to say, the last thing the Rays need is another starter on the DL given how their staff has already been ravaged by injuries this season.  Odorizzi was enjoying an excellent season, owning a 2.47 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 4.2 K/BB rate through 76 2/3 innings as he and Chris Archer have been carrying the beleaguered Tampa rotation.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • Dioner Navarro has returned from the DL and has resumed being one of the Blue Jays’ primary trade chips, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star writes.  Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos candidly discussed Navarro’s trade candidacy in a recent chat with reporters, saying that catcher was “an area of depth” for Toronto.  “He could be an everyday guy for somebody. We like him on the team. He’s valuable,” Anthopoulos said.  “We’re glad he’s on this team, but if there’s that opportunity we improve the club and it gets him an everyday playing spot, we would do that and I’ve said that to him as well. He understands that.”  In short, Anthopoulos’ stance on Navarro hasn’t changed from what he was saying about the catcher’s trade status during the offseason.  He noted that he had spoken to Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart about Navarro within the last few weeks.
  • In addition to the Blue Jays’ known need for relief help, Anthopoulos noted that the Blue Jays were also looking for outfield depth.  Dalton Pompey’s demotion has led to backup Kevin Pillar playing almost every day, and injuries to Michael Saunders and Jose Bautista led to variety of infielders (including Chris Colabello and Danny Valencia) filling the corner outfield slots with mediocre defensive results.  Griffin figures that Navarro may be dangled as trade bait for an outfielder since the Jays’ remaining payroll space may be targeted for bullpen upgrades.
  • The Red Sox aren’t looking to trade Jackie Bradley, Fangraphs’ David Laurila reports, nor is Bradley “in the proverbial doghouse” with team management.  The Sox, however, have been using other outfield options and have no plans to promote Bradley from Triple-A despite his strong play, leading Laurila to wonder if his source was correct.
  • Since the Orioles’ roster may be depleted by free agent departures this winter, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski wonders if the team could draft college players to provide immediate help for 2016.  This theory is countered, however, by an interview with MLB.com’s Jim Callis, who feels that it’s generally safer to just take the best player available, regardless of whether he’s a high schooler or a college kid.
  • MLBTR’s Zach Links covered a couple of Yankees and Red Sox items in an East Notes post earlier today.

AL East Rotation Notes: Tanaka, Rodriguez, Porcello, Odorizzi

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The Yankees will welcome Masahiro Tanaka back into the rotation on Wednesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. It remains to be seen whether he can return yet again in top form, but at this point it’s hard to count him out. Tommy John surgery seemed inevitable, and could still be the result, yet Tanaka was excellent in his first four starts of the year before suffering the forearm strain that led to his most recent DL stint.

Here’s more on AL East starting pitching:

  • Meanwhile, the Red Sox will hand the ball to rookie Eduardo Rodriguez at least once more, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. While the club will stay with a six-man rotation for now, that certainly indicates that his audition could result in a permanent spot — no surprise after an excellent first outing in which he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings.
  • Of course, the Red Sox rotation still has issues. Rick Porcello’s struggles are one significant concern, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently explained that Porcello has shown little sign of being a top-of-the-rotation starter. Boston owes him $82.5MM over the next four years under his recent extension — not exactly “ace” money, but quite a bit — but Porcello is carrying a 5.37 ERA. The good news is that Porcello, still just 26, is producing an 8.5% swinging strike rate (on the high side for him) and has increased his velocity from last year.
  • It has been a breakout year for Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, who owns a 2.31 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .210/.248/.327 batting line. If that sounds impressive, it’s not exactly all that Odorizzi is aiming for, as Matt Stein of Sports Talk Florida reports. “That’s my mindset every time,” he said. “Starts with trying to throw a perfect game, move on to a no-hitter, shutout. Just kind of work your way down the line. That’s the mindset I take into every game to be honest with you.” There’s plenty more value for Tampa Bay to tap into, as Odorizzi had just over one year of service time entering the season. All said, it’s beginning to look like it might be time to re-weigh yet again the deal that brought Odorizzi and Wil Myers to the Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis.

Central Links: Moore, Royals, Tigers, Cardinals

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Though there’s been speculation that Royals GM Dayton Moore could be a possibility to take over the GM slot in Atlanta following Frank Wren’s dismissal, Royals owner David Glass told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that Moore is “absolutely” staying with the Royals. Moore’s contract runs through 2016, but as Heyman and others have noted, it’d seem odd to leave town after getting the Royals to their first World Series in 29 years. Glass had nothing but praise for Moore: “He’s done a great job. He’s as good as it gets as far as a general manager.”

More news from baseball’s Central divisions…

  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis breaks down how the Royals constructed their World Series roster, noting that the club has 14 homegrown players (draft or international signing), nine acquired via waivers or trade and only two signed via free agency (Omar Infante and Jason Vargas). One could make the case that Jeremy Guthrie also belongs in the free agent category, as he technically hit the open market for a couple of weeks between the end of the 2012 season and re-signing in Kansas City. However, the most intriguing part of Callis’ piece, for MLBTR readers, may be a comment from Moore on the importance of Jake Odorizzi’s role in the James Shields/Wade Davis trade: “…he also kept Yordano Ventura out of that deal at that time.”
  • MLive.com’s Chris Iott makes five predictions about the upcoming Tigers offseason in his latest piece, prognosticating that Detroit will not make a serious run at re-signing Max Scherzer, nor will it spend lavishly on its bullpen, perhaps adding one mid-range option at best. As he notes, the combined $17MM owed to Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria is already more than the $15.4MM the club spent on last year’s entire Opening Day bullpen. Iott does, however, foresee a re-signing of Victor Martinez. For his last two predictions, he expects an internal competition for the fifth starter slot and that one (or both) or Andy Dirks and Don Kelly will be non-tendered, based on recent comments from GM Dave Dombrowski. Bottom line: he expects Detroit to spend on retaining Martinez and acquiring a center fielder rather than on the bullpen or rotation.
  • The Cardinals aren’t likely to re-sign any of their five free agents, writes MLB.com’s Jen Langosch. That means that Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Ellis and perhaps most notably, lifetime Cardinal Jason Motte and the resurgent Pat Neshek are ticketed for new jerseys. Neshek is probably the most intriguing of the bunch, as the 34-year-old signed a minor league deal last offseason but earned an All-Star nod en route to a final ERA of 1.87 in 67 1/3 innings with 9.1 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9.

Rays Notes: Price, Odorizzi

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The Rays face a dilemma with regard to David Price, writes Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs. They could keep him this season, a season in which they project to be competitive, and try to trade him again next offseason. The problem is that his surplus value is likely to decline by then — not only because he'll be a year closer to free agency, but because he doesn't project to improve and because he'll almost certainly be paid more in 2015 than he will be in 2014. Here are more notes out of Tampa.

  • The Rays are currently focused on "tinkering" with their roster and building depth, GM Andrew Friedman tells the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin (via Twitter).
  • Jake Odorizzi was impressed with the Rays after joining their organization via the James Shields / Wil Myers trade, he tells Sam Dykstra in a long interview at MILB.com. "You hear things about how good this organization is, and it really lived up to that. Everyone here is great on communication, and the program they put you on is one-of-a-kind," Odorizzi says. "You can see why they're so successful and continue to be that every year." Odorizzi also says he became closer to Myers and fellow Royal-turned-Ray Mike Montgomery as a result of the trade.

 

Quick Hits: Brignac, Mariners, Odorizzi

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We will start the weekend off with a few notes from around baseball:

  • Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the Pirates and Twins may have interest in infielder Reid Brignac. The Rockies recently designated Brignac for assignment to clear room for DJ LeMahieu. The 27-year-old Brignac had slashed .250/.294/.375 over 53 plate appearances in his first season in Colorado. He owns a career line of .228/.270/.321 in 719 plate appearances for the Rays and Rockies.
  • ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) suggests some key adjustments for the Mariners, who he believes can compete this season. Bowden argues that the Mariners could improve their disappointing offense by trading from their pitching depth, as well as by promoting top prospects Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino.
  • Highly-rated prospect Jake Odorizzi could throw his first pitch for the Rays as soon as Monday, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, as he appears first in line to fill in for injured starter David Price. If he is called up, Odorizzi would become the first of the four prospects acquired in the James Shields trade to see action for the big club. Baseball America rated Odorizzi as the Rays' fifth-best prospect going into the season, and he has been solid at Triple-A so far, posting a 3.83 ERA over 44 2/3 innings to go with 9.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9.

Max Fogle contributed to this post.

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