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Starting Pitcher Arbitration Decisions Released

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Arbitration decisions on several first-year arb-eligible starting pitchers have been released. According to prior reports, the outcomes of the pending cases were being held until all had been heard and decided, to avoid earlier results impacting later decisions.

Three starters won their cases:

  • Collin McHugh, Astros: With his victory, McHugh will earn $3.85MM rather than the $3.35MM that the team had argued for, as Brian McTaggart of MLB.com first reported on Twitter.
  • Jake Odorizzi, Rays: In another relatively high-dollar case, the right-hander will get his requested $4.1MM payday over the club’s $3.825MM submission, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays: Stroman takes home $3.4MM in his Super Two year instead of the team’s $3.1MM proposal, also via Heyman.

Teams prevailed against three others:

  • Taijuan Walker, Diamondbacks: The new Arizona rotation member, who’s also a Super Two qualifier, will earn $2.25MM instead of his filing figure of $2.6MM, per Jack Magruder of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • Chase Anderson, Brewers: Anderson, the final Super Two member of this bunch, will settle for the team’s $2.45MM proffer rather than the $2.85MM he sought, according to Heyman.
  • Michael Wacha, Cardinals: In his first year of eligibility, Wacha will take home $2.775MM, falling shy of his $3.2MM request, per Heyman.

Cafardo’s Latest: Rays, Indians, Bautista, Arroyo, Hanigan

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The Rays shipped starter Drew Smyly to the Mariners earlier this month, and they might not be done dealing veterans from their rotation, a major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. It’s doubtful the Rays will trade either ace Chris Archer or Alex Cobb, whose value is down because he hasn’t reestablished it since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, observes Cafardo. That leaves right-hander Jake Odorizzi as a vet who could end up on the move. Odorizzi’s name has come up in rumors throughout the winter after a season in which he posted a 3.69 ERA with 7.96 K/9 against 2.59 BB/9 in a career-high 187 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 27-year-old is under team control via arbitration through the 2019 campaign.

More from Cafardo:

  • The Indians were interested in right fielder Jose Bautista and reportedly even bid on him in free agency before he re-signed with the Blue Jays earlier this week. However, the Tribe’s pursuit of Bautista was overstated, according to manager Terry Francona. On the heels of an American League-pennant winning 2016, Francona also discussed other subjects with Cafardo – including the Indians’ signing of ex-Bautista teammate Edwin Encarnacion, reliever salaries and bullpen usage – so check out the column for the full rundown.
  • Free agent righty Bronson Arroyo said a month ago that he was unsure if he’d be able to pitch again because, at the time, his arm felt “terrible” on certain days. Fortunately, Arroyo has made “great progress” and is hoping to sign with a team in late February for what would be his age-40 season, per Cafardo. Long a capable major league starter with primarily the Red Sox and Reds, injuries have kept Arroyo out of action since a June 2014 outing with the Diamondbacks. Arroyo underwent a Tommy John procedure later that year, causing him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. He then signed a minor league contract with the Nationals last winter, but he suffered a partial tear of a tendon in his right rotator cuff during spring training and has been rehabbing since.
  • Interest in free agent catcher Ryan Hanigan is increasing as the spring nears, his agent, Tom O’Connell, informed Cafardo. The 36-year-old Hanigan has been available since November, when the Red Sox declined his $3.75MM option for 2017 after he batted an unappealing .171/.230/.238 in 113 plate appearances last season. Behind the plate, Hanigan also fell off in the pitch-framing department (via Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner), though he does carry a strong defensive track record.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures has come and gone, and there have been dozens of agreements broken throughout the league today. So many, in fact, that I’ve split the list up into a pair of league-specific posts to avoid having 100-something names in this list. You can see all the NL players here, and both of these will be updated as quickly as we’re able.

Many teams use the arbitration exchange as a hard deadline for negotiations on one-year deals — a “file and trial” approach which effectively means that once figures are exchanged, the only option they’ll pursue before a hearing is a multi-year deal. (The Mets and Orioles are both adopting that approach this year, and other teams to use that strategy in the past include Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Reds and Nationals.)

The most significant arb agreements of the day have been snapped off into their own posts already. We’ll continue adding the smaller-scale agreements from the American League right here (all projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and all arbitration agreements and filings can be monitored in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker)…

  • The Rangers have announced agreement on a deal to avoid arbitration with lefty Jake Diekman. With today’s deadline having passed, the sides did exchange figures — $3.1MM versus $1.9MM — but obviously were already nearing a number. The high-powered southpaw projected at $2.6MM, and will receive $2.55MM, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners announced that they’ve avoided arb with all eight of their eligible players, which includes Jean Segura (reported last night), Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin, Drew Smyly, James Paxton, Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent. Numbers aren’t all in yet, but Valencia took home $5.55MM, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (on Twitter). Martin will earn $4.85MM, per Heyman. They were projected at $5.3MM and $6.3MM, respectively. Meanwhile, Dyson gets $2.8MM, Heyman tweets, which lands just over his $2.5MM projection. Smyly will receive $6.85MM — right at his $6.9MM projection — while Scribner gets $907,500, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Meanwhile, Paxton will land at $2.35MM and Vincent will receive $1.325MM, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (via Twitter), both of which fall shy of their respective projections ($2.7MM and $1.5MM).
  • Catcher Martin Maldonado will receive $1.725MM from the Angels, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That’s just over his $1.6MM projection.
  • The Tigers announced that they settled with third baseman Nick Castellanos. He projected at $2.8MM, but will receive $3MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • Jeremy Jeffress and Jurickson Profar have each avoided arbitration with the Rangers, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegarm (via Twitter). Jeffress receives $2.1MM, while Profar will receive $1.005MM. Also of note, the Jeffress deal includes incentives that can add up to $250K in incentives, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He’ll get $50K apiece upon reaching 55, 60, 65, and 70 innings. He had projected for a $2.9MM salary, but his legal issues late last year certainly dented his bargaining power.
  • The Athletics have avoided arbitration with catcher/DH Stephen Vogt, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Vogt will receive $2.965MM, falling shy of his $3.7MM projection. Oakland has also reached agreement with starter Sonny Gray for $3.575MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), which is just shy of his $3.7MM projection. Also, reliever Liam Hendriks has agreed to terms, per John Hickey of the Mercury News. He’ll get $1.1MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Righty Adam Warren will get $2.29MM from the Yankees, per Baseball America’s Josh Norris (via Twitter). That’s just a shade under his $2.3MM projection. New York also announced deals with shortstop outfielder Aaron Hicks and lefty Tommy Layne, among other players whose arrangements were previously reported. Layne receives $1.075MM, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have avoided arbitration with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). He’ll receive $3.475MM, just over his projection of $3.4MM.
  • Adding to their previously reported deals, the Red Sox have announced agreement with all but two of their arb-eligible players. Salaries were reported by MLB.com’s Ian Browne for the players avoiding arb: shortstop Xander Bogaerts gets $4.5MM ($5.7MM projection), utilityman Brock Holt receives $1.95MM ($1.7MM projection), righty Joe Kelly will earn $2.8MM ($2.6MM projection), catcher Sandy Leon takes home $1.3MM (the same as his projection), lefty Robbie Ross gets $1.825MM (just $25K over his projection), and new righty Tyler Thornburg will earn $2.05MM (just under his $2.2MM projection).
  • Two moreplayers have avoided arbitration with the White Sox, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Among those not previously reported, starter Miguel Gonzalez gets $5.9MM and reliever Zach Putnam receives $1.175MM. That clearly indicates that Gonzalez and the Sox utilized his prior-years’ arb starting points, rather than his much lower earnings with the team last year. Putnam, meanwhile, had projected for $975K.

Earlier Updates

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Arbitration Breakdown: Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, Fiers

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

As I discussed in my write-up on Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez, it has been difficult for starting pitchers to top Dontrelle Willis’ arbitration salary of $4.35MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility back in 2006. Dallas Keuchel finally broke that record last year, but otherwise many pitchers have fallen short. In many cases, pitchers have gotten close only to sign multi-year deals to remove themselves from the list of comparables, and other times they have settled for numbers at or just short of Willis’ old record.

My model has trouble with these symbolic barriers, and I have written many articles about why pitchers projected to earn slightly more than $4.35MM would earn slightly less. Mathematical modeling is a science, but it does not pick up on the psychological nuances of a precedent being broken. It remains to be seen whether Keuchel’s new record makes it easier for pitchers to out-earn Willis—and Carlos Martinez this year could be a great case. However, despite Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, and Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers of the Astros all projecting near the $4.35 mark—Odorizzi and McHugh are projected slightly above it—I suspect all four will earn slightly less than their projections because of this barrier.

All four of Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Fiers have at least 30 career wins, 500 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and 100 platform year innings. All of them also have relatively average ERAs in the 3’s or 4’s. None won the Cy Young Award last year. There are only four such pitchers who met these criteria to receive one-year arbitration deals as first-year starting pitchers in the last three years, and all four earned in a tight range of $3.63MM to $4.35MM. These include Shelby Miller, Chris Tillman, Mike Minor, and Jake Arrieta. It is difficult to see any of these four pitchers falling out of that range.

Gerrit Cole is projected to earn $4.2MM, but his case is somewhat unique in that he had a relatively weak platform year despite a strong career. He went 7-10 last year, but his 47-30 in his career. His 3.88 last year is worse than his 3.23 career mark. He only threw 116 innings with 98 strikeouts last year, but he has thrown 579.1 innings with 538 strikeouts in his career. Good comparables will include players with high career wins but low platform year wins. Ivan Nova is a reasonable comparable, although he earned just $3.3MM three years ago. He had a 9-6 record with a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 innings, but was 38-20 in his career with 4.04 ERA in 517 innings. Cole’s career numbers are definitely much better than Nova’s, but Nova makes sense as a floor. I suspect Cole will get a raise over Nova’s salary plus some extra money for inflation and will end up in the $3.5MM to $4MM range, probably right in the middle—well short of his arbitration projection of $4.2MM.

Jake Odorizzi went 10-6 last season with a 3.69 ERA in 187.2 innings along with 166 strikeouts. He only has 30 career wins, fewer than the other three guys on this list, but he does have 562 career innings and a 3.75 career ERA, along with 516 strikeouts. His best comparable is probably Doug Fister four years ago, who also won ten games and had a similar ERA at 3.45. Fister also had 30 career wins and a 3.48 ERA in 610 career innings. Fister struck out over a hundred fewer batters in his career at the time he earned $4MM exactly, so adding in some salary inflation should be Odorizzi comfortably in the low 4’s. However, it is hard to find a reason why Odorizzi would top Matt Harvey, David Price, Shelby Miller, or Chris Tillman, all of whom earned between $4.32 and $4.35MM. My model projects Odorizzi at $4.6MM but my gut says $4.2MM.

Collin McHugh had a 4.34 ERA last year and has a 4.13 career ERA, so his run prevention resume is unimpressive compared to the other pitchers in this group and many other potential comparables. However, McHugh won 13 games last year and has won 43 in his career, which is a rare feat. There are only two pitchers in the last six years who have won at least 12 games in their platform years and 40 in their careers while having ERAs above 4.00. These include Ian Kennedy, who earned $4.26MM in 2013, and Tommy Hanson, who earned $3.72MM in the same year. Kennedy’s numbers are largely similar to McHugh’s, but slightly better in many aspects. Hanson was slightly behind McHugh in most categories. Given how stale these comps are, I think McHugh should pass the midpoint of around $4MM, but I also see him struggling to make a case for besting $4.35MM. I think something like $4.1MM or $4.2MM is likely, which is also below his $4.6MM projection.

Michael Fiers 4.48 platform year ERA will definitely dent his case, although his 3.87 career ERA is more impressive. He also has 11 platform year wins and 34 career wins, along with a platform year of 168.2 innings with 134 strikeouts. Jeremy Hellickson’s 2014 case is a great match. He had only one fewer loss, although Hellickson’s 5.17 ERA is definitely much worse than Fiers’ 4.48. His 39 career wins to that point best Fiers, but his 409 career strikeouts fall far below Fiers’ 542. Hellickson earned $3.63MM back in 2014, so with a more impressive platform year ERA plus three years of salary inflation, we would expect Fiers to easily top Hellickson’s salary. It is difficult to find much evidence that Fiers will hit his $4.3MM projection, though, since many of the pitchers in that range have much better cases than he does. I suspect he may be able to get close to $4MM, but probably not top it.

All four of these pitchers are likely to earn a few hundred thousand dollars less than they are projected to earn. My arbitration model tends to miss these sorts of subtleties, and a longstanding symbolic barrier at $4.35MM definitely has skewed salaries in this range down a few hundred thousand dollars. Keuchel’s new record is much higher than Willis’ old record, but several other pitchers will probably need to top $4.35MM before the model results are smooth enough that we can stop shaving money off these projections.

Trade/FA Rumblings: Rays, Indians, Pirates, Ortiz

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The Rays want “massive returns” for their on-the-block starting pitchers – which, in Chris Archer’s case, could mean more than the White Sox received from Boston for Chris Sale – reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Archer, 28, hasn’t been as effective as Sale, though he does come with five controllable years at a combined $38.5MM (Sale has three years of control at $38MM). Given their asking price, odds are that the Rays won’t trade Archer, writes Topkin, who adds that fellow right-hander Jake Odorizzi is also unlikely to go anywhere. Tampa Bay isn’t as attached to Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb or Erasmo Ramirez, meaning any of the three could end up on the move in the right deal.

Now for the latest on a few players who aren’t under contract for 2017:

  • The Indians weren’t able to reach an agreement to re-sign free agent first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli when they met Monday, but the two sides continue to maintain dialogue, team president Chris Antonetti told MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter link). Cleveland is also in touch with other first base/DH types, though Antonetti didn’t specify which players are on the club’s radar. Reports over the past week have linked free agents Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter and Adam Lind to the Tribe.
  • The Pirates “are still engaged” with free agent right-hander Ivan Nova’s camp, general manager Neal Huntington said Sunday (Twitter link via Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). There hasn’t been much chatter of late regarding Nova, who joined the Pirates in an Aug. 1 trade with the Yankees and subsequently posted a 3.06 ERA, 7.29 K/9 and .42 BB/9 in 64 2/3 innings to boost his stock entering free agency. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is arguably the best starter remaining in a thin class that has lost Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Bartolo Colon, among others, over the past few weeks.
  • The idea of former Red Sox DH David Ortiz postponing his retirement is mostly wishful thinking, it seems. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald informed MLB Network Radio on Sunday that Ortiz’s mind is made up there’s “zero chance” barring an unexpected change of heart from the 41-year-old Ortiz (Twitter link). Ortiz has already filed his retirement paperwork, Drellich points out, and the process of reversing course is both cumbersome and uncommon.

Rays Notes: Archer, Odorizzi, Castillo, Pearce, Alvarez

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Here’s the latest on the Rays from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (multiple story links)…

  • A source on one of the teams interested in right-hander Chris Archer tells Topkin that the Rays are asking for five or six players in return.  Obviously that specific ask could be related to that specific team, but with a price tag generally thought to be quite high, Topkin is doubtful Archer will be dealt.
  • Tampa is getting a lot of attention about its rotation in general, including the Pirates showing interest in Jake Odorizzi.  Pittsburgh initially had interest in Odorizzi at the July trade deadline, and it would be fascinating to see what kind of deal (if any) the Rays and Bucs could work out, as fellow small-market teams.
  • Welington Castillo is generating enough interest that he is expected to get a multi-year deal, so the Rays could be priced out of his market.  One source “wouldn’t expect” the Rays to wind up with Castillo, who has also drawn interest from teams like the Braves and Orioles since he was surprisingly non-tendered by the Diamondbacks this week.
  • Steve Pearce was targeted by the Rays before he signed a two-year, $12.5MM deal with the Blue Jays earlier today.  Topkin tweets that the Jays got the edge over the Rays by offering the second guaranteed year and more money.
  • The Rays have interest in Rangers lefty Dario Alvarez, who posted a 5.06 ERA, 13.8 K/9 and 5.86 K/BB rate over 26 2/3 innings with Texas and Atlanta last season.  His ERA was inflated by continuing problems with the long ball, as Alvarez has given up nine homers over his 31 2/3 career innings in the majors.  The Rangers are one of the teams known to be looking into the Rays’ pitching, so Alvarez could potentially be included as part of a trade package.
  • There are so many hitters in the outfield/first base/DH mold available that Topkin believes the Rays could be able to land a good bat at a relative discount price simply by waiting until later in the offseason to make a signing.  Perhaps even a higher-tier hitter like Jose Bautista would be willing to take a one-year, incentive-filled contract to play near his home in the Tampa Bay area and test the market again next winter (though Topkin admits that Bautista is rather a longshot).

Rosenthal’s Latest: Yanks, Cubs, Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Rangers

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With their payroll flexibility increasing, their farm system among the majors’ elite and their attendance down, the Yankees could be in position to make major splashes, observes FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Even if New York signs closer Aroldis Chapman and designated hitter/outfielder Carlos Beltran, which it’s interested in doing, general manager Brian Cashman might not stop there. Picking up another reliever to team with Chapman and Dellin Betances would become possible, writes Rosenthal, who adds that the Yankees could also improve their pitching by using their prospect pool to acquire a top-tier starter via trade. The Yankees do have Tyler Clippard on hand as an accomplished option capable of setting up Betances and Chapman, though, and Rosenthal concedes that the Bombers could decide this offseason is too early to surrender a haul for a starter.

More from Rosenthal:

  • The Cubs have done background work on Kenley Jansen, arguably the top free agent closer, but it doesn’t appear they’re seriously pursuing him, major league sources told Rosenthal. The World Series champions don’t want to overspend on a closer because it could preclude them from making a big signing in the near future (Japanese superstar Shohei Otani, for instance), notes Rosenthal. That would seemingly rule out the Cubs re-signing Chapman, who joins Jansen as one of the two best relievers available. MLBTR projects record contracts for both Jansen and Chapman, and Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer has already indicated that the team isn’t necessarily looking to splurge on a reliever.
  • The Rays are primed to base their 2017 approach on which starting pitcher they trade, writes Rosenthal. If the Rays deal right-hander Alex Cobb or southpaw Drew Smyly, both of whom have two or fewer years of team control remaining, they’re likely to make an attempt at competing next season. On the other hand, shipping righties Chris Archer (five years of team control) or Jake Odorizzi (three) out would signal a rebuild. Even if Tampa Bay chooses the latter route, it’s still unlikely to move third baseman Evan Longoria, the longtime face of the franchise. Longoria has demonstrated remarkable durability since 2013, missing just six games, and has Rays officials convinced he could be part of winning Tampa Bay teams down the line. The 31-year-old is controllable through the 2023 season.
  • The Padres are high on first baseman Wil Myers and won’t trade him unless they’re “blown away” by an offer, sources informed Rosenthal. San Diego and Myers are in the early stages of long-term extension talks, so the plan is to retain the soon-to-be 26-year-old for the long haul. Myers, a 2016 All-Star who slashed .259/.336/.461 with 28 home runs and 28 steals in 676 plate appearances, is set to make his first of as many as three arbitration trips.
  • The Cardinals have floated right-hander Michael Wacha’s name in trade talks, according to Rosenthal, who’s skeptical that the club would receive much in return for the 25-year-old because of his injury issues. Wacha threw 181 1/3 innings in 2015, but he missed significant time each of the two seasons in between because of shoulder troubles. He was terrific from 2013-15, recording a 3.21 ERA, 7.95 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 353 frames, though he posted a bloated ERA (5.09) in 138 innings this past season. While Wacha’s strikeout and walk rates of 7.43 and 2.93 per nine were close to previous norms (he also registered a career-high ground-ball rate of 46.6 percent), it’s possible the Cardinals will move him to the bullpen next season in his first of three arb-eligible campaigns.
  • The Rangers had interest in right-hander Edinson Volquez before reaching an agreement Friday with fellow righty Andrew Cashner, per Rosenthal. Volquez began his career with the Rangers, who signed him as an international free agent in 2001, and went to Cincinnati in 2007 in the trade that brought outfielder and eventual five-time All-Star/2010 American League MVP Josh Hamilton to Texas.

Quick Hits: Otani, Archer, Rays, McCutchen, Bucs

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If Japanese ace Shohei Otani were a free agent this offseason, “He’d be by far the best pitcher on the market,” one general manager told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. Considering the current class lacks front-end starters, that’s not a surprise. However, the 22-year-old right-hander would also draw plenty of interest on a robust market. Otani led the Nippon Ham Fighters to a Japan Series title this past season while recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 140 innings. The left-handed batter was also outstanding offensively, hitting .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances, and could become a two-way star in the major leagues eventually. One GM would have no problem allowing Otani to hit on days he doesn’t pitch. “Sign me up. I think every one of the 30 teams would be in the mix,” he said. Otani has only played four years in Japan and won’t be eligible to come to the majors of his own volition until after his ninth season, but the Fighters could post him before then and receive $20MM in return from the team that wins his services. There are multiple GMs who don’t expect that to happen until 2018, though, per Bloom.

More from around baseball:

  • The Rays are in position to take advantage of the lack of enticing starters on this year’s market, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has trade candidates in a pair of righties – Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi – and southpaw Drew Smyly, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Friday that the Rays departed this week’s GM meetings with confidence that they’d deal at least one of them. Righty Alex Cobb also holds appeal, writes Topkin, even though he pitched to an 8.59 ERA in 22 innings this year after missing all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery. “The demand is there,” GM Erik Neander said of his pitchers. “When you have really good players, especially in an area where there is need across the league, I think it certainly plays that way.”
  • The Rays’ best starter, Archer, lamented the team’s financial limitations in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Thursday. “I think in order for us to be successful, we’ve got to spend more money,” he said (via Topkin). “You look at the teams that were in contention this year and they were all around the $100-million payroll mark or more. And we’re in the $70 million payroll (range).” Archer continued, “I get it. We might not be capable of spending with the Yankees and Red Sox. But if we keep harping on it then it permeates the minds of the players. And we don’t want the players to think that we’re at any competitive disadvantage.” President of baseball operations Matt Silverman responded to Archer’s comments Friday, telling Topkin, “We share Chris’ passion. There’s no value in harping on the competitive disadvantages in baseball. It’s our reality. And it’s what helps motivate us to find new ways to win.”
  • The Pirates held trade talks over the summer involving center fielder Andrew McCutchen, the longtime face of the franchise, and GM Neal Huntington has continued to field inquiries on the 30-year-old. Regarding the interested teams, Huntington told the Associated Press after the GM meetings, “They recognize that we haven’t been averse to moving guys as their contract nears expiration. It’s a part of how we believe we need to do things to continue to be competitive and continue to give ourselves a shot to win.”  McCutchen has a maximum of two years left on his contract, including a $14.5MM club option in 2018.

Trade Rumblings: A’s, Rangers, D-backs, Tigers, Dodgers, Rays

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While the Athletics aren’t exactly shopping any of Sonny Gray, Stephen Vogt or Sean Doolittle, they’re open-minded to trade scenarios involving the three due to the fact that they recognize the unlikeliness of competing in the next year’s AL West with this current group, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Per Rosenthal, Oakland will look to build around younger arms like Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton, though he also notes the difficulty that presents itself when entertaining offers on Gray. Trading the 2015 Cy Young candidate when his value is at all-time low is quite problematic, as teams will be looking to buy low on the still-just-27-year-old Gray, while the A’s rightly would place a higher premium on him. Both Gray and Vogt are controllable for three more years via arbitration, while Doolittle is guaranteed a mere $6.95MM over the next two seasons and has two club options at $6MM and $6.5MM beyond that.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • Also via Rosenthal, the Rangers and Rays had extensive talks about Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi prior to the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, and the two sides aren’t expected to renew any of those talks. Texas isn’t as aggressive on Rich Hill as other clubs either, though Rosenthal notes that they’ll still probably find a way add a mid-rotation arm or back-of-the-rotation arm at some point this winter.
  • The Diamondbacks are content to hang onto Yasmany Tomas for the time being, Rosenthal reports. The 26-year-old had a huge second half that saw him bat .294/.329/.584 with 18 homers in 258 plate appearances, boosting his season batting line to .272/.313/.508 to go along with 31 homers. However, his highly suspect defense (-16 DRS, -14 UZR), below-average OBP and poor baserunning left him as a replacement-level player in the eyes of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Rosenthal notes that AL teams may eventually find Tomas more attractive once players like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion sign, though I’m not sure any team would jump at Tomas’ contract. He’s guaranteed $48.5MM over the next four seasons and has an opt-out clause following the 2018 campaign on his backloaded deal. In other words, if Tomas blossomed into the regular he was projected to be, he could jump ship after just two years and re-enter free agency, but if 2017 mirrors his first two years, an acquiring team would be looking at nearly $50MM for a sub-replacement-level player.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to a number of general managers at this week’s meetings to discuss the thin market for starting pitching, including Tigers GM Al Avila. Crasnick writes that the Tigers are willing to dangle Justin Verlander in trades — Avila acknowledged as much earlier this week when saying the Tigers were open-minded to virtually any trade scenario — and notes that the GM has already spoken with Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler and informed them that they should expect to see their names bandied about in trade rumors this offseason.
  • Crasnick also talked to Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi about the possibility of L.A. swinging a deal for an arm. Zaidi expressed some confidence in the depth that the team has internally before adding, “…but there’s a reason we went out and traded for Rich Hill at the deadline last year. It’s something we’re going to continue to monitor.” Zaidi’s Dodgers are indeed stacked with depth — in addition to Clayton Kershaw they have options in Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, Hyun-jin Ryu and Ross Stripling — which is why the GM said the team will be “fairly targeted in looking for guys who come with maximum upside to pitch at the front of the rotation.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Rays left the GM Meetings with a stronger belief than they had upon arrival that they’ll trade one of Archer, Odorizzi or Smyly this winter. He adds that there’s an “outside chance” that Alex Cobb will be dealt as well, although Cobb’s return from Tommy John surgery was delayed in 2016, leaving him with a total of just 22 innings and an 8.59 ERA, so it’d be understandable if Tampa Bay feels that Cobb’s value would increase in 2017.

Tampa Bay Rays: Top 5 Bright Spots Of 2016

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Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.

[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]

Here are the biggest bright spots for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Note: Evan Longoria’s terrific season does qualify as a bright spot, but not a major one in regards to what was expected and how it affects the team moving forward. His trade value has risen, but it was already high and it’s likely the team holds on to their star third baseman with an eye on contending in 2017.

1. Brad Miller, 1B

When the Rays traded for Miller in the offseason, the hope was that he could give them at least adequate defense at shortstop to go along with 15-20 home runs. As the Mariners had already concluded, the 26-year-old was not very good at shortstop. But, as the Rays discovered, Miller proved that he was capable of much more at the plate, allowing them to hold off on a fallback plan to use him as a super-utility man who could start a handful of games per week.

With 20 homers and an .809 OPS, Miller made his debut as the Rays’ starting first baseman on August 8th. He would go on to hit 10 more homers and finish the season with a total of 30. It was the first time since 2009 (Carlos Peña, 39 HR) that a Rays’ hitter other than Evan Longoria finished the season with at least 30 homers. Versatility is still a key component of Miller’s value, but his breakout season at the plate has him locked in as the team’s first baseman for the foreseeable future.

2. Alex Colome, RP

After being moved out of the rotation in mid-2015, Colome proved that he could handle a late-inning relief role and possibly fill the closer’s role sometime in the future. When Brad Boxberger landed on the disabled list  to start the 2016 season, “sometime in the future” came much sooner than expected.

By the time Boxberger, who saved 41 games for the Rays in 2015, would return from the disabled list in late May (he would return to the disabled list after just one appearance), it was already apparent that he had been Wally Pipp’d. The 27-year-old Colome earned an All-Star bid on his way to a brilliant 37-save season with a 1.91 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9. Finding a closer is not on the team’s agenda for the upcoming offseason.

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