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Phillies GM Matt Klentak On Rotation, Free Agency, Kingery

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The Phillies’ pair of playoff misses in 2018-19 prompted a managerial change, and with veteran skipper Joe Girardi now at the helm, postseason expectations are even higher. With those postseason aspirations comes the expectation of an active offseason — a topic which general manager Matt Klentak discussed with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on the 94WIP Midday Show yesterday (link includes full audio). Unsurprisingly, bolstering the rotation is a key goal for the Phils.

“We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front,” said Klentak. “So I think it makes sense for us to look to pour some more resources, and our time and attention, into improving our run prevention. That starts in the starting rotation.”

Aaron Nola will once again head up the Phillies’ starting staff in 2020, and Klentak said within the interview that Jake Arrieta is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training after undergoing August surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. (The hope, of course, is that better health from Arrieta will lead to better results than 2019’s 4.64 ERA in 135 innings.) Beyond that pairing, 25-year-old righty Zach Eflin seems likeliest to have a tentative rotation spot, although he briefly lost his starting gig in 2019. The team’s other primary starters in 2019 — Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas — either struggled greatly (Pivetta, Velasquez), have since departed via free agency (Smyly) or both (Vargas).

At bare minimum, it’d seem the Phillies have two rotation vacancies to address. The good news is that this year’s free-agent market is deeper than many recent offseasons in terms of starters. Fans, however, shouldn’t necessarily hang their hopes on Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler coming to town. While Klentak didn’t firmly decree that the team won’t sign a player that has rejected a qualifying offer, he implied that the organization will need to stop doing so at some point.

“I’m more bullish on the farm system than some,” the GM explained when asked about improving his minor league talent base. “One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond. But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from. That’s where Spencer Howard comes from. That’s where Connor Seabold comes from. … We’ve got to try to hang onto that as much as we can.”

Again, it’s not a firm declaration that such a move won’t happen. The Phillies certainly have the payroll capacity, in both the short- and long-term, to add a high-end arm on the open market, and they’ve clearly been willing to make draft sacrifices recently. But if the preference is to maintain as much draft capital as possible, the team could also look to non-qualified free agents to bolster the staff. Cole, Straburg, Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Jake Odorizzi are the five starters that received (and will likely reject) qualifying offers.

Reigning NL ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, though, and the Cubs opted not to extend a QO to old friend Cole Hamels, who just yesterday expressed interest in a return to Philly. Other notable free-agent names include Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello, among many others.

Beyond the pitching staff, Klentak briefly touched on some notable points pertaining to the lineup. McCutchen, like Arrieta, is expected to be ready for day one of Spring Training after suffering a season-ending ACL tear back in June. Barring setbacks, he’ll reclaim a spot in the outfield, but the composition of that unit is in many ways dependent on the status of Odubel Herrera, who sat out the final 85 games of the season under a domestic violence suspension.

Klentak was noncommittal on Herrera’s future when asked, instead focusing his response on the competition that arose in center field during his absence. Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn and Kingery impressed in center, per the GM. Kingery, in particular, drew extensive praise from Klentak, who noted that the 25-year-old’s versatility is not only a luxury for the manager but for the front office.

“If we’re looking to add a bat, for instance, we don’t have to look at just one position,” said Klentak. “We can look at a variety of different spots, knowing that Scott Kingery can not just capably, but masterfully, fill in defensively just about anywhere. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s our best defensive second baseman, shortstop, third baseman and center fielder.”

The Phillies have a pair of trade/non-tender candidates at second base (Cesar Hernandez) and third base (Maikel Franco) in addition to the aforementioned uncertainty in center field, making that comfort with Kingery at four different positions particularly noteworthy. That creates a relatively blank canvas for Klentak and his staff when looking to improve the lineup and/or the defense. As is the case with the rotation, Klentak will have virtually innumerable avenues to explore, setting the stage for another offseason of heavy lifting for the Philly front office.

Phillies Announce Flurry Of Roster Moves

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The Phillies have announced a wide slate of roster moves today, setting the team up for another fascinating offseason. In particular, the club has shorn a big chunk of its 2019 pitching staff from the roster in one fell swoop.

Philadelphia declined club options over righty Jared Hughes, righty Pat Neshek, and lefty Jason Vargas. Also heading to the open market are five players were outrighted: infielder Phil Gosselin and righties Jerad Eickhoff, Mike Morin, Blake Parker, and Edubray Ramos.

That’s a big chunk of innings going onto the open market despite ongoing control rights. To be exact, the Phils are kicking 219 2/3 of their frames from 2019 back into free agency. It’s hard to argue with any of the decisions.

Hughes was solid as a late-season gap-filler, but didn’t rate at a $3MM price tag for 2020. He’ll get a $250K buyout on the way out. Neshek takes $750K with him instead of pitching for $7MM. That’s no surprise after he was limited to 18 frames due to injury. Vargas is due a $2MM buyout instead of a $8MM salary; the Phils evidently feel they can do better in the rotation on the open market this winter.

The biggest departure is that of Eickhoff. The once-promising starter projected to earn only $1.5MM, with one more season of control thereafter, but the Phils decided to cut bait after watching him struggle to a 5.71 ERA over 58 1/3 innings. Eickhoff had a few encouraging outings upon his return from a long injury layoff, but struggled thereafter and was again sidelined with arm woes.

The other three were also eligible for arbitration. Morin, who has a $1.2MM projected arb salary, struggled to get strikeouts during his stint with the club. Parker surprisingly turned in 11.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 25 frames but also gave up a host of homers and earned runs. Perhaps he’d have been worth a lower-cost keeper price but the Phils weren’t biting at a projected $4.7MM. The 26-year-old Ramos entered the year as a key piece but struggled with injuries and showed a velocity decline when he was available. He projected to earn only $800K, but the team may not have been convinced of his ability to return to full health.

Meanwhile, a host of players were added back to the 40-man roster. Among the players activated from the 60-day injured list is starter Jake Arrieta, who has exercised his player option and will remain with the organization. On the heels of a messy, injury-marred campaign, that comes as no surprise. Additionally, outfielder Odubel Herrera was reinstated from the restricted list after the conclusion of his suspension for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. His future with the organization remains unclear following this procedural move.

Jake Arrieta Declines To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Phillies righty Jake Arrieta won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, keeping him in his deal with the Phillies for the 2020 season, the Associated Press reports.  Arrieta will earn $20MM for the 2020 season, the final year of the three-year, $75MM pact he signed with Philadelphia in March 2018.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported in October that Arrieta was going to remain with the Phillies, and indeed, it became increasingly obvious throughout the veteran right-hander’s injury-marred year that the opt-out clause wouldn’t be a factor.  Arrieta revealed in July that he was trying to keep pitching despite suffering from a bone spur in his throwing elbow, and while he toughed it out as long as possible, Arrieta eventually hit the injured list in mid-August and soon underwent season-ending surgery.

The end result was a 4.64 ERA, 2.16 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings for Arrieta, easily his least-impressive performance since his early-career struggles as a member of the Orioles in 2010-12.  Arrieta posted by far the largest hard-hit ball (38%) and home run (19.4%) percentages of his career, while his 7.1% swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest total of his career.

Arrieta’s stay in the 2017-18 free agent market was a lengthy one, as he was hampered by the qualifying offer and a feeling amongst some teams that he was beginning to a decline following a good but not great 2017 season with the Cubs.  Over two seasons with the Phillies, Arrieta has a 4.26 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 51.4% grounder rate, and 2.30 K/BB rate — decent numbers, though hardly what the Phils expected from a pitcher earning $25MM in average annual value.

The best-case scenario for Arrieta and the Phillies is that the bone spur was the root cause of his struggles, and he’ll rebound for a healthy and productive age-34 season.  That would be a welcome boost to a Phillies team that was let down by its starting pitching almost across the board last season, though Philadelphia is expected to be pursuing some upgrades this winter.  A good year from Arrieta would also increase his chances at another multi-year in free agency next offseason, as a repeat of his 2019 numbers would likely limit his market to only one-year offers.

NL Notes: Castellanos, Giants, Mets, Arrieta

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MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand takes advantage of the break in World Series action to profile six upcoming free agents whose free agent values are “tough to define” heading into the 2019-2020 offseason. Cubs outfielder Nicholas Castellanos kicks off his list, with Feinsand noting that Castellanos’ defensive limitations may limit his market. On the more optimistic end, however, one unnamed NL executive is quoted as saying that “parallels” can be drawn to the profile of J.D. Martinez. As a formerly maligned outfield defender who showed pronounced growth at the plate after a few ho-hum early years in Detroit, Martinez netted a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox back in 2018. Ironically, Castellanos and Martinez could be in direct competition on the open market this winter if Martinez opts out of his Red Sox contract and takes another spin through free agency.

More notes from around the senior circuit…

  • Astros bench coach Joe Espada is using his day off between World Series games to travel to San Francisco for a meeting with Giants brass, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (link). Espada has already conducted a phone interview with San Francisco reps, so his decision to sandwich an in-person interview between Fall Classic contests could be viewed as a sign that interest between both parties is fairly serious.
  • Tim Bogar’s previously reported second interview with Mets leadership is also expected to go down today, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link). Bogar, a coach with the Nationals, will also apparently be using his off day with an eye on securing one of MLB’s four remaining open managerial seats. As Heyman notes, Carlos Beltran, Eduardo Perez, Twins coach Derek Shelton, Mets coach Luis Rojas, and an “unknown bombshell candidate” are still in play for the New York position, with tongue presumably planted firmly in cheek on that last item.
  • Heyman also relays that Phillies starter Jake Arrieta will not opt out of the last year of his contract (link). This is largely expected after the starter turned in a mediocre season marred by an arm injury that ultimately required surgery. As part of the three-year, $75MM deal agreed to prior to the 2018 season, Arrieta could have re-entered the free agency portal this offseason were he willing to forego the final year and $20MM slated for Philadelphia’s 2020 payroll. Instead, the 33-year-old will look to regain his form under the watch of new manager Phillies Joe Girardi. Arrieta pitched to a 4.64 ERA (4.89 FIP) in 24 starts and 135.2 innings in 2019.

Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents

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The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).

He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.

So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.

Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.

As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.

If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.

Injury Notes: Strickland, Elias, Ross, Arrieta, Eickhoff, Kluber

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The Nationals pitching staff has taken another hit, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Reliever Hunter Strickland is having X-rays taken at PNC park after a bar struck him across the face. The injury stems from a weight room accident, but Strickland was up and about, playing catch ahead of tonight’s contest in Pittsburgh. It’s unclear whether he will be available out of the pen tonight. Strickland has been great since coming over to the Nats at the deadline, looking fully the part of the eighth-inning reliever they’ve longed for all season. He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA/3.07 FIP and 5 holds in 8 contests. At best, Strickland’s mishap may lead to a second Washington pitcher taking the hill with more black-and-blue in the color scheme than usual. While we’re here, let’s check in on another couple of notes from Washington and beyond…

  • Strickland’s travel buddy from Seattle, Roenis Elias, remains out after injuring himself running out a groundball in his first appearance as a National. He could be close to returning from the strained hamstring, however, as he plans to throw off a mound for the first time since the injury this upcoming Thursday, tweets MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman.
  • Dougherty also provided an update on Joe Ross, who left last night’s blowout win after taking a Josh Bell one-hopper off the shin. His leg is wrapped, but Dave Martinez says the plan is for Ross to be ready to go for his next scheduled start on Saturday. Ross has pitched with newfound fervor since taking Max Scherzer’s spot in the rotation. Less four-seamers and a heavy reliance on his power sinker have at least been part of the story for the rejuvenated Ross. In four starts since the trade deadline, he’s thrown 21 1/3 innings with a hard-to-believe 0.42 ERA. Coming into August, Ross had a 9.85 ERA over 24 2/3 innings that spanned 18 games out of the bullpen and 1 start. If he’s healthy enough to go Saturday, the 5th spot in the Nats rotation appears his. If not, Erick Fedde will be ready to go.
  • The Phillies transferred Jake Arrieta to the 60-day injured list today, the team announced. Arrieta was already known to be out for the year because of a bone spur in his elbow that requires surgery. This move is but the paperwork allowing Jerad Eickhoff to be reinstated and sent to Triple-A. Eickhoff should have the final ten days or so in August to fine tune with Lehigh Valley, as he would be expected to join the Phillies when rosters expand in September.
  • Corey Kluber’s recent setback was due to abdominal tightness experience during a rehab start on Sunday, the Indians announced. The final diagnosis was an internal oblique strain. Kluber has been shut down to begin a rehab program with the hopes of being reevaluated and cleared to resume throwing in two weeks time. Obviously, that’s a very loose timetable, as Kluber’s return will depend entirely on his progress over this next fortnight.

Jake Arrieta To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Phillies righty Jake Arrieta will undergo season-ending surgery later this month to remove a bone spur in his right elbow, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.

Arrieta, 33, had been pitching through the injury since early in the summer, to less-than-stellar results. The 2019 season was the hurler’s worst since his days in Baltimore: though the righty somehow maintained a fastball velocity in the 92-93 MPH range despite the injury, he again struggled to miss bats, command the baseball, and keep it in the park. Though the second half of Arrieta’s season didn’t much differ from the first – apart from his outings often being truncated upon his reaching the 75-80 pitch mark – the pain seemed to intensify, and both team and player finally pulled the plug following a disastrous Sunday outing in San Francisco in which the 2015 Cy Young Award winner was touched for five earned in just three innings pitched.

Arrieta signed a three-year, $75MM deal prior to his age 32 season in 2018. The Chicago reclamation project anchored the Cubs staff for years, but his ERA, on the back of an otherworldly Cub defense, had long outpaced his peripherals, a gap which reached a head in his 2017 walk season, where ERA estimators pegged the righty at the top end of the fourth-starter range. He’s been about that or worse in Philly, where despite steady grounder and walk rates, the former fifth-rounder has seen his strikeout rates slide to worse than eight per nine and his gopher-ball rate ascend to below-league-average totals.

Like its bullpen, the Phillies’ rotation is mostly in shambles now. It can always count on ace Aaron Nola, but it’s now Vince Velasquez, Drew Smyly, Jason Vargas, and Zach Eflin beyond, a quartet that won’t inspire much confidence as the group charges toward its first playoff appearance since 2011.

Jake Arrieta’s Season Likely Over

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The Phillies have placed right-hander Jake Arrieta on the 10-day injured list, and Arrieta himself told reporters today that his season is likely over (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). “I’ll probably miss the remainder of the season,” said Arrieta, who is slated to undergo an MRI on Thursday.

The elbow troubles that are sidelining Arrieta aren’t a new revelation. Early in July, it was announced by the Phils that Arrieta was pitching through bone spurs in his elbow that would require eventual surgery. Arrieta has continued to pitch through the discomfort, though it seems as though he’s now reached a tipping point. Right-hander Zach Eflin, who was recently dropped to the bullpen, will return to the rotation to start in place of Arrieta on Saturday, tweets Scott Lauber of Philly.com.

It’s been a rather middling season for Arrieta, 33, as he’s pitched to a 4.64 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 through 24 starts — a total of 135 1/3 innings. Arrieta carried a 3.96 ERA through Memorial Day, but the summer hasn’t been kind to him as he’s pitched through those injuries; over his past 65 2/3 frames, he’s stumbled to a 5.76 ERA with a 51-to-25 K/BB ratio, four hit batters and a dozen home runs allowed.

Arrieta is in the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract that contains an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. Given the current injury and his summer struggles, that opt-out seems decidedly unlikely to be exercised, meaning he’ll remain under contract in Philadelphia through the 2020 season, when he’s slated to earn $20MM. The Phillies also hold a two-year, $40MM club option on Arrieta that they’ll surely forgo in light of his current health and recent struggles.

With Arrieta headed to the shelf for what looks to be the duration of the year, the Phillies will lean on Aaron Nola, Eflin, Vince Velasquez and a pair of recent newcomers — Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas — to round out the rotation for now. Both Smyly and Vargas have given the Phillies a pair of strong outings, though Smyly’s two most recent turns haven’t been as sharp. The Phillies have fallen to nine games out of the division lead in the NL East but are still just two games out of an NL Wild Card spot.

Latest On Jake Arrieta

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Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta has spent a large portion of the season trying to pitch through a bone spur in his elbow. Now, though, the pain could force him to the operating table.

After the Phillies’ loss to the Giants on Sunday, Arrieta told Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia and other reporters that his elbow “hurts every day.” On whether he’ll continue working through the issue, Arrieta said: “I don’t necessarily want to make a decision right now. We’ll have the off day Monday and maybe have a conversation on Tuesday.”

Arrieta’s elbow problems would seem to at least partially explain the former Cy Young winner’s severe drop-off this season. The 33-year-old turned in another poor performance Sunday, yielding five earned runs on seven hits in three frames, and hasn’t recorded the definition of a quality start (at least six innings, three earned runs or fewer) since June 19. Arrieta’s struggles have led to a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP over 135 2/3 innings in a season that has become increasingly disappointing for the Phillies.

On the heels of an ultra-aggressive winter, Philadelphia opened the campaign with National League East title aspirations. The club delivered early, sitting nine games over .500 as recently as June 9, but it’s now a mediocre 60-58. While the Phillies are still a manageable two games behind a wild-card spot, they’re nine back in the NL East, where they sit in fourth place.

It’s clear the Phillies’ starting staff is among the primary reasons they’ve essentially tread water to this point. Aside from Aaron Nola, no starter they’ve consistently trotted out has been all that effective. Even Nola’s aggregate production has fallen off from 2017-18. But there’s no bigger letdown in the bunch than Arrieta, whose days as a front-end starter have appeared over throughout his time with the Phillies.

Since inking a three-year, $75MM contract entering 2018, Arrieta has given the Phillies 308 1/3 innings of 4.26 ERA/4.53 FIP ball. The ex-Cub’s deal gives him the ability to opt out after this season, but thanks to his middling output and injury situation, that isn’t going to happen. Likewise, the Phillies aren’t going to exercise an option that would add two years and $40MM to the pact. As a result, Arrieta will earn $20MM in 2020, which seems likely to wind up as his last season with the Phillies.

Jake Arrieta To Pitch Through Injury – For Now

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Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta may be facing season-ending surgery on a bone spur in his elbow, but he’ll continue to pitch while the team evaluates his health. The plan is for Arrieta to take the ball sometime during Philadelphia’s series against the Nationals this weekend, Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told SportsRadio 94WIP on Wednesday (via ESPN.com).

While Kapler admitted the injury has hampered Arrieta, he added that “it’s always worth considering if Jake at 85 percent of himself is a better option than what we have at Triple-A.”

Three members of the Phillies’ 40-man roster – Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and Drew Anderson – are on Triple-A Lehigh Valley’s pitching staff. Santos, Irvin and Anderson have all spent some time in the majors this year, but they’ve each struggled over limited sample sizes. While De Los Santos and Irvin have put up mid-3.00s ERAs in the minors this year, their effective run prevention has come with less enticing peripherals. Anderson, meanwhile, owns a near-6.00 ERA with Lehigh Valley in 2019. The 22-year-old JoJo Romero is Philly’s seventh-ranked prospect at MLB.com (one spot behind De Los Santos, nine ahead of Irvin), but he isn’t on the 40-man and hasn’t earned a promotion anyway. Romero sports an ERA a tad south of 10.00 in seven Triple-A starts.

Not only do the Phillies lack starting options they’re fully comfortable with below the majors, but their big league rotation hasn’t lit it up. The team’s starters rank 19th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 24th in ERA and 25th in FIP, owing in part to Arrieta’s disappointing performance. Now in the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract, the 33-year-old has pitched to a 4.67 ERA/5.07 FIP with 7.08 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9 in 108 innings. Arrieta’s contract gives him the right to opt out after the season, while the Phillies could void his opt-out and opt into two more years and $40MM. Neither one of those things will happen, though, so the Phillies will end up owing him another $20MM in 2020.

Despite the Phillies’ pricey commitment to Arrieta, they’ll run the risk of having him continue to pitch through injury for the time being. Regardless of whether he holds up, the Phillies seem like shoo-ins to fortify their rotation from outside before the July 31 trade deadline. In the meantime, the club will start the second half of the season Friday at 47-43 and a half-game up on the NL’s second wild-card spot.

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