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Jake Arrieta

Cubs Sign Jake Arrieta

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It’s reunion season in Chicago. The Cubs on Wednesday announced that they’ve signed right-hander Jake Arrieta to a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second season. Arrieta, a Boras Corporation client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM, which will be paid out in the form of a $4MM salary in 2021 and a $2MM buyout on next year’s $10MM option. He can also earn a $250K bonus for reaching each of 150, 160, 170 and 180 innings.

Jake Arrieta |Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Arrieta, who struggled at the beginning of his career as an Oriole, joined the Cubs alongside Pedro Strop in a franchise-altering trade in 2013 and was an enormous success with the team through 2017. He earned a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series title (2016) as a Cub, and he also recorded a sterling 2.73 ERA/3.49 SIERA across 803 regular-season innings with the team.

The Cubs were in touch with Arrieta throughout his free agency, but they moved in a different direction, signing right-hander Yu Darvish to a six-year contract while Arrieta was still looking for a new team. Arrieta’s return to the Cubs, somewhat coincidentally, comes as the team is looking to make up some of the innings lost when dumping the remainder of Darvish’s salary in a trade with the Padres.

The Phillies may not have been expecting another Cy Young out of Arrieta when they signed him to a three-year, $75MM deal with a multi-season option, but they surely hoped to be getting an above-average starter. That, of course, did not prove to be the case.

While Arrieta had a respectable debut campaign with the Phils, his 2019 and 2020 seasons were marred by injuries, resulting in his worst performance since breaking out with the Cubs in the first place. Overall, Arrieta threw 352 2/3 innings with the Phillies in that three-year term, logging a disappointing 4.36 ERA/4.57 SIERA that was more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm than a difference-maker at the top of the staff.

Because of his mediocre performance and health issues in Philadelphia, Arrieta had no chance to rake in another high-paying contract this offseason. But the soon-to-be 35-year-old should earn plenty of starts now that he is back with the Cubs, who have just two proven options ahead of him in Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay look like the most realistic candidates to pitch out of the Cubs’ rotation, and they’ll probably all get their share of innings. Like most teams, the Cubs will likely cycle through a wide array of starting pitching options as they look to ease their staff’s transition from last year’s shortened 60-game slate back to a full 162-game workload.

Arrieta becomes the latest modestly priced free-agent addition of a 2020-21 offseason that has seen the Cubs add several new players without concretely improving. Ownership clearly wanted to scale back the payroll, hence the trades of Darvish and Victor Caratini and the non-tenders of Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora. The front office, under newly promoted president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, has signed Arrieta, Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Williams and Jake Marisnick since a report that owner Tom Ricketts gave the green light for a “slight” payroll increase.

In addition to that group, the Cubs also picked up Davies in return for Darvish. They’ve certainly created the possibility that this wider base of talent could outperform the players they’re more or less replacing, and if it works out that way, Hoyer & Co. will receive plenty of praise for threading the needle between creating future flexibility and fielding a winning product.

That said, it’s also a risk-laden group with several players in need of bounceback campaigns. The Cubs aren’t clearly better than they were with Darvish, Schwarber, Caratini and a higher payroll and are arguably quite a bit worse. If this group struggles, the 2020-21 offseason will be widely viewed as a missed opportunity, given that only one team (the Cardinals) made any clear upgrades in what should’ve been a wide-open race for the division title.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that it’d be a one-year term. Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a deal was in place, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided financial details (Twitter links).

Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez

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The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…

  • Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
  • Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.

Mets Interested In Jake Arrieta, James Paxton

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The Mets attended Jake Arrieta’s recent workout for MLB clubs, and the two sides have had discussions about a potential contract in the weeks since that outing, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). Martino notes that there’s no sense a deal is close and adds that lefty James Paxton is also of some interest to the Mets.

Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.

The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.

Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.

Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.

Latest On Twins’ Rotation Targets

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Even after signing left-hander J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM contract late last month, the Twins may not be done addressing their rotation. They remain in touch with one of their own free agents, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, and were in attendance for righty Jake Arrieta’s throwing session last Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The Twins will stay in touch with Arrieta, according to Neal.

Odorizzi spent the previous three seasons with the Twins and combined for a 4.11 ERA/4.34 SIERA in 337 innings. In his best season, 2019, Odorizzi earned an All-Star nod and pitched to a 3.51 ERA/4.14 SIERA with a a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate over 159 frames. The Twins then handed Odorizzi a $17.8MM qualifying offer, and he accepted it instead of trying his luck in free agency.

Minnesota was no doubt expecting another quality showing from Odorizzi when it gave him the QO, but it wasn’t to be in 2020. Injuries, including to his back, chest and right middle finger, limited him to 13 2/3 innings of 10-run ball. Odorizzi doesn’t seem to be a free agent at the ideal time, then, but considering his positive track record with the Royals, Rays and Twins, he could still land a solid multiyear payday this offseason. Other than the Twins, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and perhaps the Mets as teams vying for the soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Either Odorizzi or Arrieta would fill out a Twins rotation that currently has Happ, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak comprising its top five. Of course, unlike Odorizzi, Arrieta probably isn’t in line for better than a one-year contract. While Arrieta is a former NL Cy Young winner (2015) with the Cubs, he’s now on the market after a pair of disappointing seasons with the Phillies. Arrieta, 35 in March, put up his worst ERA since 2012 last year (5.08) in 44 1/3 innings. He also logged a meager 16.8 percent strikeout percentage – one of the worst of his career – though he did record an above-average walk rate of 8.4 percent and a 51.8 percent groundball rate.

Free Agent Notes: Mets, Williams, Folty, Arrieta, Twins, Rosenthal

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The Mets have already put a lot of focus on their rotation this winter, between retaining Marcus Stroman via the qualifying offer and adding Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi in trades.  While Trevor Bauer’s name continues to loom over Citi Field, the Mets are also continuing to explore other hurlers.  According to Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), New York had interest in right-hander Trevor Williams before Williams signed with the Cubs.  The Mets were also among the teams present to watch Mike Foltynewicz during his recent throwing session, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

With Steven Matz recently dealt to the Blue Jays, the Mets’ projected starting four looks like Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and David Peterson.  Lucchesi probably has the inside line on the fifth starter job for now, but the Mets aren’t short on other depth options in the upper minors, and Foltynewicz would provide another experienced candidate to either compete for a rotation spot or perhaps fit into the bullpen.  Since Noah Syndergaard is expected to make a midseason return from Tommy John rehab, whomever fills the fifth starter role is ultimately keeping the seat warm for Syndergaard — barring the shake-up of a Bauer signing, that is.

More on some other free agent news…

  • Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.
  • The Cubs had interest in Jake Arrieta but a signing is “doubtful,” ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets, since the Cubs want a less-expensive option.  Arrieta’s asking price can’t be all that high considering his middling results over the last two seasons, but perhaps the $2.5MM (with deferred money involved) the Cubs gave Williams is a better example of what the team is willing to spend.
  • Trevor Rosenthal is the top reliever remaining on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and since the Twins are known to be looking for bullpen help, could the two sides link up?  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes isn’t very optimistic, as Rosenthal’s asking price looks to be too high for Minnesota’s liking.  The more money the Twins can save on relief pitching, the more they can then devote to a starting pitcher, but Hayes does think “they need relief certainty more than rotation certainty” at this point due to the rotation depth already on hand.

Cubs Seek Starting Pitching After Approval For Slight Payroll Increase

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The Cubs’ reported agreement with Joc Pederson this morning registered as something of a surprise, as much of the focus for the team this winter has been on paring back payroll and restocking the farm system. However, David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago reports (via Twitter) that owner Tom Ricketts recently gave president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his staff the approval to increase 2021’s payroll. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets that the Cubs are in pursuit of some veteran arms, again listing Carlos Rodon and Jeff Samardzija as two possibilities. Both will throw for the Cubs this weekend.

To be clear, there’s no indication that Ricketts has green-lighted a return to the Cubs’ $200MM+ payrolls. Asked by one follower about a potential move for Trevor Bauer, Kaplan characterized the chances as effectively nonexistent. But the Cubs’ 2021 commitments sit around the $150MM mark even after the Pederson agreement, and the news of even a modest payroll increase creates the possibility of at least adding some low-cost veterans.

ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that the Cubs could pick up one or two low-cost arms in the near future, adding that there’s interest in a reunion with Jake Arrieta. The former NL Cy Young winner was slated to throw for interested teams today. Even if a deal with Arrieta can’t be worked out for one reason or another, the market offers comparable buy-low opportunities that could provide the Cubs with some needed depth. Speculatively speaking, any of Rodon, Samardzija, Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz or Trevor Williams could fit that bill. Old friends Cole Hamels and Rich Hill remain unsigned as well.

Having traded Yu Darvish to the Padres, Chicago’s current rotation is likely to be fronted by Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies and Alec Mills. Prospects Adbert Alzolay, Brailyn Marquez and Tyson Miller could all vie for starts as well, and the Cubs did ink former Twins prospect Kohl Stewart to a big league deal just yesterday (albeit with a near-minimum $700K guarantee). Former Cardinals/Braves star Shelby Miller will be in camp as a non-roster player this spring, too.

Clearly, beyond the top starters, that group lacks experience and/or recent success. Add in the limited workloads that all pitchers had in last year’s shortened slate of games, and the Cubs’ need to bring in some arms becomes all the more clear. Hendricks was one of MLB’s leaders with 81 1/3 innings pitched. Davies (69 1/3 innings) and Mills (62 1/3) also had relatively strong workloads, but no one else on the current Cubs roster reached even 30 MLB innings. Alzolay, Marquez, Miller and others were getting work in simulated games at the team’s alternate training site, but there has to be some concern about too radically increasing the workloads of the organization’s top prospects.

FA Notes: Mets, Bauer, JBJ, Arrieta, Cubs, Shark

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While free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. have frequently been connected to the Mets in recent weeks, no agreement appears imminent in either case. The club is “far apart” from deals with both of those players, Andy Martino of SNY says (video link). The race for Bauer could come down to the Mets and Dodgers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that the Padres showed interest before acquiring Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove in separate trades. The Padres presented a three- to four-year offer to Bauer, but that “didn’t fly,” according to Heyman.

As for Bradley, the Mets are more focused on a short-term deal, whereas the 30-year-old may want a longer pact, Martino suggests. The longtime member of the Red Sox is clearly the top center fielder left on a market that lost George Springer to the Blue Jays last week, so he may be in better position to secure a large guarantee.

  • Staying with the Mets, they will be in attendance for free-agent righty Jake Arrieta’s showcase on Friday, per Martino and Colin Martin of SNY. The former Cy Young winner disappointed with the division-rival Phillies from 2018-20, but Arrieta at least looks like a capable back-end starter at this point of his career. The Mets may have opened up a spot in their starting staff Wednesday when they traded lefty Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.
  • Free-agent righty Jeff Samardzija will work out for the Cubs “at some point in the next few days,” Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes. This could lay the groundwork for a reunion between Samardzija and the Cubs, with whom he pitched from 2008-14 before a trade to the Athletics. The 36-year-old was a solid starter for the Cubs and has typically done a good job in that role with multiple teams, though he’s a free agent at an inopportune time after managing a miserable 9.72 ERA/7.35 SIERA over 16 2/3 innings and four starts last season.

Starting Pitching Rumors: Odorizzi, Paxton, Arrieta, Walker

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi’s current market includes the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays, Twins and Red Sox, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Most of those clubs have been at least speculatively linked to Odorizzi at some point this winter, although it’s of at least some note that there’s still interest after those teams have added other pieces to their rotation already. The Angels agreed to a deal with Jose Quintana earlier this week, and the Twins inked J.A. Happ on a matching one-year deal. The Red Sox have brought back Martin Perez, while the Giants have brought in Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. Odorizzi is still seeking a three-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He and the Twins are still not seeing eye to eye in terms of the length of a potential contract or the total guarantee, Heyman adds.

A few more notes on the market for starting pitchers…

  • Lefty James Paxton is among the rotation targets the Blue Jays are taking a look at, tweets Heyman. A link between the two sides seemed almost inevitable given that the Jays have been tied to most free agents as they cast a wide net amid an aggressive offseason and given that Toronto is regularly at least speculated upon as a landing spot for Canadian-born free agents. Paxton, who threw for teams late last month, missed the bulk of the 2020 season due to February back surgery and then a forearm strain this past summer. Beyond being limited to 20 1/3 ineffective frames while battling those injuries, Paxton saw a drop of more than three miles per hour in his average heater last year. Of course, if he’s healthy, the 32-year-old would rank among the most impactful arms on the open market. From 2017-19, “Big Maple” tossed 447 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a near-identical 3.45 SIERA. He also posted an outstanding 30.1 percent strikeout rate and a 7.3 percent walk rate that sat comfortably south of the league average. At his best, he’s a playoff-caliber starter, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see hopeful contenders pursuing short-term deals with Paxton in weeks to come.
  • From one Scott Boras client to another, right-hander Jake Arrieta is planning to throw for interested teams a week from today, Heyman tweets. Arrieta missed his final few starts of the season due to a hamstring injury — his second straight year truncated by injury. The former Cy Young winner underwent arthroscopic surgery near the end of the 2019 campaign after attempting to pitch through bone spurs in his elbow for much of the season. Overall, Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM deal with the Phillies didn’t pay dividends. After a solid first year in Philly, he logged just 180 innings of 4.75 ERA/4.82 SIERA ball with an 18.1 percent strikeout rate that was nowhere near his 27 percent peak with the Cubs. The Twins plan to watch Arrieta’s bullpen session next week, tweets SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson, although he adds that Minnesota is represented at nearly all showcases of this nature, so this is perhaps more due diligence than it is keen interest in Arrieta specifically.
  • The Mariners have yet to approach right-hander Taijuan Walker with a serious offer to bring him back to the organization, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. At the time of Walker’s trade to the Blue Jays over the summer, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto suggested that he might look to bring the righty back to the team in the near future (Twitter link via Jessamyn McIntyre). That has yet to happen, it seems, although it’s also worth noting that Divish reported earlier in the week that Mariners ownership has limited the front office’s payroll flexibility “more than expected” this winter. The Mariners may yet add another arm to the rotation mix, but depending on the extent to which spending is limited, a multi-year deal candidate like Walker might be out of reach.

NL Notes: Bell, Pirates, Boras, Cubs, Marlins

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Before the Pirates traded Josh Bell to the Nationals, the team had some cursory negotiations about an extension with the first baseman’s agent Scott Boras, Bell told reporters (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic).  The two sides went “back and forth” on a long-term deal, Bell said, “but in regards to numbers or anything like that, I don’t think it ever got to that point.”  Bell is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, when he’ll be 30 years old. 

Given how the Pirates appear to be open to dealing virtually anyone as they rebuild their team, it’s fair to wonder whether even an extension might have kept Bell in Pittsburgh — some clubs might have intrigued at having additional years of control and added cost certainty.  Then again, given how Bell struggled in 2020, trade suitors might have balked at paying significant guaranteed money to a player coming off such a tough year.  Regardless, Bell will need a strong bounce-back year with the Nationals to ensure himself at least a bigger arbitration raise in 2022, and to help build his case for either an extension with Washington or a notable free agent payday in two years’ time.

More from the National League…

  • Speaking of Boras, the agent recently appeared on a podcast with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer and Maddie Lee to discuss the Cubs and Boras client Kris Bryant (and former Cub and current free agent Jake Arrieta), plus also several bigger-picture issues surrounding the game.  The podcast explores such topics such as the offseason free agent market, the upcoming CBA talks and the relationship between the league and the players’ union, the business of baseball at the ownership level, and much more.
  • Francisco Cervelli provided the Marlins with some pop behind the plate last season, but after the veteran’s season was cut short by a concussion (that led to Cervelli’s retirement), neither Jorge Alfaro or Chad Wallach delivered much hitting-wise.  However, while another catcher could still be added, it looks like the Marlins are still planning to deploy Alfaro and Wallach as the primary catching duo going into 2021, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald writes.  The team is hopeful that Alfaro can become a more reliable defensive option and also unlock the batting potential that made him such a highly-touted prospect — Alfaro has delivered some decent numbers in his young career but with a lot of strikeouts and not much consistency.  Wallach, meanwhile, offers more solid glovework, but little in the way of offensive production.

Phillies Place Jake Arrieta On 10-Day IL

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Sept. 17: Arrieta’s strain is a Grade 1 strain, manager Joe Girardi tells reporters (Twitter link via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He won’t pitch again during the regular season but could still be a potential option in the playoffs, should the Phillies get there.

Sept. 16: The Phillies announced that they’ve placed right-hander Jake Arrieta (right hamstring strain) and outfielder Kyle Garlick (right oblique strain) on the 10-day injured list. Those moves helped clear space for the promotion of outfielder Mickey Moniak. The Phillies also recalled righty Connor Brogdon.

Arrieta’s injury makes it possible that we’ve seen the last of him in a Phillies uniform, as he’s due to reach free agency after the season. The Phillies signed the former NL Cy Young winner and ex-Cubs star to a three-year, $75MM shortly before the 2018 campaign began, but the returns haven’t been positive for the club. Arrieta has missed time with multiple injuries and performed like a back-end starter when healthy, having logged a 4.36 ERA/4.55 FIP over 352 2/3 innings in a Phillies uniform. He has thrown 44 1/3 frames of 5.08 ERA/4.67 FIP ball with 6.5 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 51.8 percent groundball rate this season.

Arrieta’s disappointing production in 2020 is one of the reasons the Phillies are fighting for their playoff lives at 24-23. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have given the team top-level numbers out of its rotation, but Arrieta, Spencer Howard, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez have all failed to prevent runs at an acceptable level in a combined 28 starts.

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